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Putin’s nyet to Biden

Putin’s nyet to Biden

Russia yet to acknowledge US President-elect given his past stance on sanctions. Can arms control break the ice?

When all world leaders are already confabulating with President-elect Joe Biden, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready to acknowledge the US’ chosen leader just yet. In fact, given his history with US President Donald Trump, his latest diplomatic stance portends what the latter might be up to. One that’s serious enough for Putin to acknowledge. Although the electoral certification process technically is still on, Biden has emerged the clear winner from the State-by-State vote tallies. And the Electoral College is expected to formally confirm the results on December 14. Trump may exhaust all legal options and challenge counts but the margins are by now too large to change the outcome in his favour. But he sure is making the transition difficult, determined to make Biden’s job difficult and most importantly, fairly decided about weighing his rival down with his flamboyance and show him as a weak leader, who doesn’t deserve to be in a chair that demands his kind of robustness. Putin’s words on State TV would seem like they were scripted by Trump himself as he said he would work with “anyone who has the confidence of the American people. But that confidence can only be given to a candidate whose victory has been recognised by the opposing party, or after the results are confirmed in a legitimate, legal way.” The contrast is sharper as in 2016, Putin had wasted no time in congratulating Trump for winning the election. Of course, Clinton had conceded the day after the vote and the Russian involvement in influencing the election in Trump’s favour is not quite a secret. So beyond the personal equation, Putin’s continued deference to Trump as a world leader seemed less than diplomatic, considering the impact it could have on US-Russia relations and global geopolitics. Putin, of course, claimed that his latest stance wouldn’t impact mutual relations much as they were “already ruined.” The Trump Administration has already withdrawn from the Open Skies Treaty and the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Thanks to the US, Russia is already under international sanctions for actions, including its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 (one where Biden had a key role to play), interference in the US election in 2016 and reported involvement in a nerve agent attack in the UK in 2018. So unless Putin is humouring Trump in the run-up to 2024, which the latter is seemingly keen to contest, and investing for the future, little else makes sense. Besides, Trump’s “America first” policy and withdrawal from global arenas of conflict had helped Russia somewhat regain its heft and self-worth in Europe in the power vacuum thus caused, all the way up to Turkey. With Biden’s renewed commitment to world bodies, particularly NATO, Russia’s clout could be considerably diminished. In fact, it could be blindsided again.

The Kremlin has historically not been comfortable with the Democrats and finds Biden an impediment, given his tough stance on Putin. As Vice-President, Biden had stridently pushed for sanctions against Russia in response to the 2014 Ukrainian crisis. With no signs of conflict resolution on that count, Putin now expects tougher counter-measures against him. Besides, given Biden’s stance that morality must play a role in US foreign policy, Russia fears sharper US condemnation of its rights issues and what the US considers “subversive” activities in the neighbourhood. This brand of US exceptionalism is antithetical to Russia’s newly extended sphere of influence. All through his campaign, Biden did mention Russia’s meddling in US elections as also its alleged endorsement of Taliban attacks on US troops in Afghanistan. So rightfully, Putin does expect a hitback and is probably raising his stakes to deflect the US. Of course, Biden and his team are pragmatic and a balanced lot and would not want to precipitate a crisis, working on areas of mutual interest. The renewal of arms control could be a starting point. Biden has already said that he wants extension of existing or new treaties on reducing US-Russian nuclear arms. That works with the Russians, too.

Putin’s nyet to Biden

Putin’s nyet to Biden

Russia yet to acknowledge US President-elect given his past stance on sanctions. Can arms control break the ice?

When all world leaders are already confabulating with President-elect Joe Biden, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready to acknowledge the US’ chosen leader just yet. In fact, given his history with US President Donald Trump, his latest diplomatic stance portends what the latter might be up to. One that’s serious enough for Putin to acknowledge. Although the electoral certification process technically is still on, Biden has emerged the clear winner from the State-by-State vote tallies. And the Electoral College is expected to formally confirm the results on December 14. Trump may exhaust all legal options and challenge counts but the margins are by now too large to change the outcome in his favour. But he sure is making the transition difficult, determined to make Biden’s job difficult and most importantly, fairly decided about weighing his rival down with his flamboyance and show him as a weak leader, who doesn’t deserve to be in a chair that demands his kind of robustness. Putin’s words on State TV would seem like they were scripted by Trump himself as he said he would work with “anyone who has the confidence of the American people. But that confidence can only be given to a candidate whose victory has been recognised by the opposing party, or after the results are confirmed in a legitimate, legal way.” The contrast is sharper as in 2016, Putin had wasted no time in congratulating Trump for winning the election. Of course, Clinton had conceded the day after the vote and the Russian involvement in influencing the election in Trump’s favour is not quite a secret. So beyond the personal equation, Putin’s continued deference to Trump as a world leader seemed less than diplomatic, considering the impact it could have on US-Russia relations and global geopolitics. Putin, of course, claimed that his latest stance wouldn’t impact mutual relations much as they were “already ruined.” The Trump Administration has already withdrawn from the Open Skies Treaty and the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Thanks to the US, Russia is already under international sanctions for actions, including its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 (one where Biden had a key role to play), interference in the US election in 2016 and reported involvement in a nerve agent attack in the UK in 2018. So unless Putin is humouring Trump in the run-up to 2024, which the latter is seemingly keen to contest, and investing for the future, little else makes sense. Besides, Trump’s “America first” policy and withdrawal from global arenas of conflict had helped Russia somewhat regain its heft and self-worth in Europe in the power vacuum thus caused, all the way up to Turkey. With Biden’s renewed commitment to world bodies, particularly NATO, Russia’s clout could be considerably diminished. In fact, it could be blindsided again.

The Kremlin has historically not been comfortable with the Democrats and finds Biden an impediment, given his tough stance on Putin. As Vice-President, Biden had stridently pushed for sanctions against Russia in response to the 2014 Ukrainian crisis. With no signs of conflict resolution on that count, Putin now expects tougher counter-measures against him. Besides, given Biden’s stance that morality must play a role in US foreign policy, Russia fears sharper US condemnation of its rights issues and what the US considers “subversive” activities in the neighbourhood. This brand of US exceptionalism is antithetical to Russia’s newly extended sphere of influence. All through his campaign, Biden did mention Russia’s meddling in US elections as also its alleged endorsement of Taliban attacks on US troops in Afghanistan. So rightfully, Putin does expect a hitback and is probably raising his stakes to deflect the US. Of course, Biden and his team are pragmatic and a balanced lot and would not want to precipitate a crisis, working on areas of mutual interest. The renewal of arms control could be a starting point. Biden has already said that he wants extension of existing or new treaties on reducing US-Russian nuclear arms. That works with the Russians, too.

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