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MAKING SENSE OF WORLD CORONA FIGURES

MAKING SENSE OF WORLD CORONA FIGURES

This is an unfathomably vast subject therefore a summary restricted to the latest figures of affected cases and deaths, along with WHO's stand on the issue and the acrimonious economic outcomes of the pandemic is the least & the best that can be written on the subject, As for, the foremost important issue of human life & health, the best guide to it is the daily 'Virus Tracker (VT) chart of 'Worldometer'  which provides the latest daily figures on these. We give here an analysis of these numbers in respect to India & Delhi incidents.                                                                                 

                                                                    Total Till Date (30-9-2020)

Region                                                    Cases                                                  Deaths                                                          Percentage

World                                                    36,247,199                                           1,057,656                                                               2.917 

USA                                                       7,735,943                                             Figures not available                                              -----

India                                                      6,832,600                                              105,572                                                                1.545

Delhi                                                      298,107.                                                5616                                                                    1.883

 

                                                                                   Last 24hours

India                                                       78,746                                         978                                                                            1.241

Delhi                                                      2871                                              35                                                                            1.219

Though the percentage of national death figures that has emerged from these charts has shown a descending slope compared to the figures of just a week before, (on 30-9-2020 these were national total average of 1.5674 and the same in previous 24hrs was 5.193! while for today 08-10-2020 as we see above both figures have graduated to lower values) it is still not a picture which allows us to relax or think that the pandemic is vanishing and our doubts about the overall situation get worse by the given report from ICMR  of 30th September 2020 which says that till date India has tested 7,41,96,722. total samples of which 10,86,688. were done in the last 24hours; that makes the total tested population a mere 5.7%. The final scenario that emerges from these figures is that the tests done are much too less for them to depict correctly the prevalence of the disease in the country and that its control will worsen in the coming months.

Quoting the (VT) chart of today the 30th of September' 2020 the five most affected countries are (1) USA, (2) India, (3) Brazil, (4) Russia, & (5)Colubia The point to be noted in this chart (if you don't count Russia as a European country-because of it being as much Asian as European) is that the entire Europe has managed to wriggle itself out of these charts, when till April- May this year so many names from there like Italy, Spain, France & UK, remained at the top positions in these lists.

Drawing a conclusion from this observation, that Europe has managed to conquer the enemy, will be erroneous, while on 30-9-2020 the fifth position in this list was that of Columbia today a mere eight days away Spain has got back into this list of top five most affected countries and is now on fifth position, displacing Columbia a South American country) Sliding the view back to the early history of spread of the disease from China to the outside world we will notice that this happened at the peak of winter season of December'19 to January'20, and winters are known to be more conducive to the growth and therefore to the spread of the virus, also the exchange traffic & business ties between China, Europe & USA are at a much higher level than they are between India & China, these, thus were the factors responsible for early and fast spread of the disease in Europe. Even the USA was drawn into the field much later. The same reasons which affected Europe first, in reverse order, became the cause of delay in India's appearance on the scene. But once here, with our overpopulated cities, low development status, poor infrastructure & inadequate health services, it was bound to make us catch up with the toppers and then beat them.

Now that the winters are returning news is trickling from various European nations to get back rising trends in their graphs of affected cases. This is not to disregard the advantages they possess of having much better health delivery systems coupled with incomparable low populations, which will make the effects of return of the disease there much more blunt. Even China is seeing a re-emergence of the disease after its initial enviously heroic conquest of it. Returning the discussion to our motherland; we saw a noticeable effect of the pandemic for the first time in March-April which proceeded relentlessly throughout the peak summer season. This means that in previous winters we were spared from the initiation of the Corona attack here, and now that it has found a footing in the country it has not cared for its extreme heat for spreading its tentacles. 

All the socioeconomic factors of this land, make it a soft target for any pandemic. However respiratory diseases show their worst effects during winters and are known to exacerbate in that season. Corona being basically a respiratory disease,, by showing its trampling attack during summers here has broken that trend and we should expect its ferocity to get more violent in the approaching winters unless an effective vaccine comes to the rescue of entire mankind and to us as a part of the crowd.     

MAKING SENSE OF WORLD CORONA FIGURES

MAKING SENSE OF WORLD CORONA FIGURES

This is an unfathomably vast subject therefore a summary restricted to the latest figures of affected cases and deaths, along with WHO's stand on the issue and the acrimonious economic outcomes of the pandemic is the least & the best that can be written on the subject, As for, the foremost important issue of human life & health, the best guide to it is the daily 'Virus Tracker (VT) chart of 'Worldometer'  which provides the latest daily figures on these. We give here an analysis of these numbers in respect to India & Delhi incidents.                                                                                 

                                                                    Total Till Date (30-9-2020)

Region                                                    Cases                                                  Deaths                                                          Percentage

World                                                    36,247,199                                           1,057,656                                                               2.917 

USA                                                       7,735,943                                             Figures not available                                              -----

India                                                      6,832,600                                              105,572                                                                1.545

Delhi                                                      298,107.                                                5616                                                                    1.883

 

                                                                                   Last 24hours

India                                                       78,746                                         978                                                                            1.241

Delhi                                                      2871                                              35                                                                            1.219

Though the percentage of national death figures that has emerged from these charts has shown a descending slope compared to the figures of just a week before, (on 30-9-2020 these were national total average of 1.5674 and the same in previous 24hrs was 5.193! while for today 08-10-2020 as we see above both figures have graduated to lower values) it is still not a picture which allows us to relax or think that the pandemic is vanishing and our doubts about the overall situation get worse by the given report from ICMR  of 30th September 2020 which says that till date India has tested 7,41,96,722. total samples of which 10,86,688. were done in the last 24hours; that makes the total tested population a mere 5.7%. The final scenario that emerges from these figures is that the tests done are much too less for them to depict correctly the prevalence of the disease in the country and that its control will worsen in the coming months.

Quoting the (VT) chart of today the 30th of September' 2020 the five most affected countries are (1) USA, (2) India, (3) Brazil, (4) Russia, & (5)Colubia The point to be noted in this chart (if you don't count Russia as a European country-because of it being as much Asian as European) is that the entire Europe has managed to wriggle itself out of these charts, when till April- May this year so many names from there like Italy, Spain, France & UK, remained at the top positions in these lists.

Drawing a conclusion from this observation, that Europe has managed to conquer the enemy, will be erroneous, while on 30-9-2020 the fifth position in this list was that of Columbia today a mere eight days away Spain has got back into this list of top five most affected countries and is now on fifth position, displacing Columbia a South American country) Sliding the view back to the early history of spread of the disease from China to the outside world we will notice that this happened at the peak of winter season of December'19 to January'20, and winters are known to be more conducive to the growth and therefore to the spread of the virus, also the exchange traffic & business ties between China, Europe & USA are at a much higher level than they are between India & China, these, thus were the factors responsible for early and fast spread of the disease in Europe. Even the USA was drawn into the field much later. The same reasons which affected Europe first, in reverse order, became the cause of delay in India's appearance on the scene. But once here, with our overpopulated cities, low development status, poor infrastructure & inadequate health services, it was bound to make us catch up with the toppers and then beat them.

Now that the winters are returning news is trickling from various European nations to get back rising trends in their graphs of affected cases. This is not to disregard the advantages they possess of having much better health delivery systems coupled with incomparable low populations, which will make the effects of return of the disease there much more blunt. Even China is seeing a re-emergence of the disease after its initial enviously heroic conquest of it. Returning the discussion to our motherland; we saw a noticeable effect of the pandemic for the first time in March-April which proceeded relentlessly throughout the peak summer season. This means that in previous winters we were spared from the initiation of the Corona attack here, and now that it has found a footing in the country it has not cared for its extreme heat for spreading its tentacles. 

All the socioeconomic factors of this land, make it a soft target for any pandemic. However respiratory diseases show their worst effects during winters and are known to exacerbate in that season. Corona being basically a respiratory disease,, by showing its trampling attack during summers here has broken that trend and we should expect its ferocity to get more violent in the approaching winters unless an effective vaccine comes to the rescue of entire mankind and to us as a part of the crowd.     

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