Actor Vijay’s second major political conference has injected fresh energy into Tamil Nadu’s pre-2026 election landscape, drawing massive crowds and fuelling speculation over the prospects of his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). With a strong presence of youth and first-time voters, Vijay’s supporters argue that he is uniquely positioned to reshape the state’s electoral dynamics.

Analysts, however, are split on the impact. One camp believes TVK will primarily cut into AIADMK’s traditional base by siphoning off anti-DMK votes, indirectly benefiting the ruling party. Another suggests that Vijay could dent the youth-driven support of Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), with TVK presenting itself as a fresher and more charismatic option.

The role of minority votes remains uncertain. While Vijay’s Christian background may attract some sections, the DMK’s entrenched support among minorities makes a large-scale shift unlikely. Still, even a marginal swing could tilt close contests.

Vijay has declared that the 2026 elections will be a “direct fight” between DMK and TVK, but his inability to secure allies raises questions. Despite offering partners a share in power, no significant party has yet come forward. Political circles are abuzz with the possibility of an AIADMK realignment if it parts ways with the BJP before polls, opening a potential window for Vijay to stitch together a formidable coalition.

In his speech, Vijay evoked the transformative elections of 1967 and 1977, hinting that his entry could herald a similar political shift. Yet sceptics caution against such parallels, noting that stars like Sivaji Ganesan, Vijayakanth, Sarathkumar and Kamal Haasan could not replicate MGR’s political magic.

For now, estimates place Vijay’s potential vote share in the 7–9 per cent range — enough to emerge as a disruptive force, but still short of ensuring a direct route to Fort St. George.

Actor Vijay’s second major political conference has injected fresh energy into Tamil Nadu’s pre-2026 election landscape, drawing massive crowds and fuelling speculation over the prospects of his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). With a strong presence of youth and first-time voters, Vijay’s supporters argue that he is uniquely positioned to reshape the state’s electoral dynamics.

Analysts, however, are split on the impact. One camp believes TVK will primarily cut into AIADMK’s traditional base by siphoning off anti-DMK votes, indirectly benefiting the ruling party. Another suggests that Vijay could dent the youth-driven support of Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), with TVK presenting itself as a fresher and more charismatic option.

The role of minority votes remains uncertain. While Vijay’s Christian background may attract some sections, the DMK’s entrenched support among minorities makes a large-scale shift unlikely. Still, even a marginal swing could tilt close contests.

Vijay has declared that the 2026 elections will be a “direct fight” between DMK and TVK, but his inability to secure allies raises questions. Despite offering partners a share in power, no significant party has yet come forward. Political circles are abuzz with the possibility of an AIADMK realignment if it parts ways with the BJP before polls, opening a potential window for Vijay to stitch together a formidable coalition.

In his speech, Vijay evoked the transformative elections of 1967 and 1977, hinting that his entry could herald a similar political shift. Yet sceptics caution against such parallels, noting that stars like Sivaji Ganesan, Vijayakanth, Sarathkumar and Kamal Haasan could not replicate MGR’s political magic.

For now, estimates place Vijay’s potential vote share in the 7–9 per cent range — enough to emerge as a disruptive force, but still short of ensuring a direct route to Fort St. George.