Despite hints from Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin about restoring U.S.-Russia trade after the war, a return of American businesses to Russia remains highly improbable.

Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, over 1,300 foreign companies have exited. Those who left were often forced to sell their assets for half their value or simply write them off. Russia’s 2023 decree allowing the government to seize stakes in major firms like Carlsberg and Danone further devastated investor confidence.

Putin's rhetoric has grown more hostile. On May 26, he urged Russia to "strangle" Western tech giants like Zoom and Microsoft. His threat, coupled with a track record of nationalizing foreign assets, signals that the business climate is unlikely to improve.

Even if sanctions were lifted and the U.S. was removed from Russia’s “unfriendly states” list, risks remain severe. Russia has restructured its legal framework to allow seizure of “important” foreign firms, restrict profit repatriation, and override shareholder rights.

Economically, Russia is heavily tilted toward military production, with little appeal for U.S. investors seeking long-term growth. “Only Belarus offers an equally lousy combination of growth and risk,” warns Bank of Finland economist Heli Simola.

Though some firms like Ford exited with repurchase options, experts say Russia’s unstable legal system could render such agreements unenforceable. Energy is one potential draw, but even giants like ExxonMobil suffered massive write-offs and expropriations, making re-entry risky and unattractive. 

While some U.S. firms still operate in Russia in a limited capacity, full-scale return is unlikely. As Bruegel's Elina Ribakova puts it: “There’s long-lasting damage.” Even if the U.S. lifts sanctions, ongoing EU restrictions would continue to complicate global compliance for American multinationals.

Despite hints from Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin about restoring U.S.-Russia trade after the war, a return of American businesses to Russia remains highly improbable.

Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, over 1,300 foreign companies have exited. Those who left were often forced to sell their assets for half their value or simply write them off. Russia’s 2023 decree allowing the government to seize stakes in major firms like Carlsberg and Danone further devastated investor confidence.

Putin's rhetoric has grown more hostile. On May 26, he urged Russia to "strangle" Western tech giants like Zoom and Microsoft. His threat, coupled with a track record of nationalizing foreign assets, signals that the business climate is unlikely to improve.

Even if sanctions were lifted and the U.S. was removed from Russia’s “unfriendly states” list, risks remain severe. Russia has restructured its legal framework to allow seizure of “important” foreign firms, restrict profit repatriation, and override shareholder rights.

Economically, Russia is heavily tilted toward military production, with little appeal for U.S. investors seeking long-term growth. “Only Belarus offers an equally lousy combination of growth and risk,” warns Bank of Finland economist Heli Simola.

Though some firms like Ford exited with repurchase options, experts say Russia’s unstable legal system could render such agreements unenforceable. Energy is one potential draw, but even giants like ExxonMobil suffered massive write-offs and expropriations, making re-entry risky and unattractive. 

While some U.S. firms still operate in Russia in a limited capacity, full-scale return is unlikely. As Bruegel's Elina Ribakova puts it: “There’s long-lasting damage.” Even if the U.S. lifts sanctions, ongoing EU restrictions would continue to complicate global compliance for American multinationals.