India is facing its most serious strategic test in Bangladesh since the Liberation War of 1971—not because of war or humanitarian collapse, but due to a profound political and security realignment unfolding next door. A parliamentary committee headed by Shashi Tharoor has warned that while Bangladesh may not descend into chaos, the shifts underway pose a long-term threat to India’s regional primacy and security interests.

Unlike 1971, when the challenge was immediate and existential, the current situation represents a generational rupture: the erosion of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League dominance, the rise of Islamist forces, and the steady expansion of Chinese and Pakistani influence. This combination threatens to pull Dhaka away from its historic strategic alignment with New Delhi.

The committee has flagged deep concern over China’s growing military-adjacent footprint—ranging from port expansion at Mongla to the Lalmonirhat airbase and the Pekua submarine facility, whose scale far exceeds Bangladesh’s current naval needs. Such infrastructure creates latent military capacity, altering the regional balance without a single shot fired.

India is facing its most serious strategic test in Bangladesh since the Liberation War of 1971—not because of war or humanitarian collapse, but due to a profound political and security realignment unfolding next door. A parliamentary committee headed by Shashi Tharoor has warned that while Bangladesh may not descend into chaos, the shifts underway pose a long-term threat to India’s regional primacy and security interests.

Unlike 1971, when the challenge was immediate and existential, the current situation represents a generational rupture: the erosion of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League dominance, the rise of Islamist forces, and the steady expansion of Chinese and Pakistani influence. This combination threatens to pull Dhaka away from its historic strategic alignment with New Delhi.

The committee has flagged deep concern over China’s growing military-adjacent footprint—ranging from port expansion at Mongla to the Lalmonirhat airbase and the Pekua submarine facility, whose scale far exceeds Bangladesh’s current naval needs. Such infrastructure creates latent military capacity, altering the regional balance without a single shot fired.