U.S. President Donald Trump has reignited tensions in South Asia with a surprise announcement: the United States has struck a new trade deal with Pakistan to develop its “massive” oil reserves. The move comes just days after Trump slapped a 25% tariff on Indian imports and criticized India for continuing to buy oil from Russia.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump declared the deal with Pakistan a strategic partnership, hinting at drilling rights for American firms. He also took a pointed dig at India, saying, “Maybe they [Pakistan] will sell oil to India,” a comment widely seen as provocation amid already tense U.S.-India trade negotiations.

While India possesses far greater proven reserves, over 4.8 billion barrels compared to Pakistan’s 353 million as of 2016: it is also a significantly larger oil consumer. India produces over 600,000 barrels per day but imports nearly five million BPD to meet demand. Pakistan, by contrast, produces around 68,000 BPD and imported just 140,000 BPD in 2024.

Experts view the U.S.-Pakistan deal as a pressure tactic aimed at New Delhi. The U.S. wants India to curb its Russian oil purchases and shift toward American energy sources. India has been diversifying but maintains strong energy ties with Moscow, a stance that frustrates Washington.

Pakistan hailed the agreement as a breakthrough, expecting reduced tariffs on its exports. However, details remain scarce, and skepticism persists due to geopolitical instability and limited exploration success. Turkey recently joined efforts to develop Pakistan’s offshore blocks, but security concerns linger after attacks on foreign personnel.

While the deal is unlikely to impact India’s energy security immediately, it signals Washington’s intent to use regional energy diplomacy to shape strategic outcomes—possibly at India’s expense.

U.S. President Donald Trump has reignited tensions in South Asia with a surprise announcement: the United States has struck a new trade deal with Pakistan to develop its “massive” oil reserves. The move comes just days after Trump slapped a 25% tariff on Indian imports and criticized India for continuing to buy oil from Russia.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump declared the deal with Pakistan a strategic partnership, hinting at drilling rights for American firms. He also took a pointed dig at India, saying, “Maybe they [Pakistan] will sell oil to India,” a comment widely seen as provocation amid already tense U.S.-India trade negotiations.

While India possesses far greater proven reserves, over 4.8 billion barrels compared to Pakistan’s 353 million as of 2016: it is also a significantly larger oil consumer. India produces over 600,000 barrels per day but imports nearly five million BPD to meet demand. Pakistan, by contrast, produces around 68,000 BPD and imported just 140,000 BPD in 2024.

Experts view the U.S.-Pakistan deal as a pressure tactic aimed at New Delhi. The U.S. wants India to curb its Russian oil purchases and shift toward American energy sources. India has been diversifying but maintains strong energy ties with Moscow, a stance that frustrates Washington.

Pakistan hailed the agreement as a breakthrough, expecting reduced tariffs on its exports. However, details remain scarce, and skepticism persists due to geopolitical instability and limited exploration success. Turkey recently joined efforts to develop Pakistan’s offshore blocks, but security concerns linger after attacks on foreign personnel.

While the deal is unlikely to impact India’s energy security immediately, it signals Washington’s intent to use regional energy diplomacy to shape strategic outcomes—possibly at India’s expense.