India should reach out to all friendly nations which share a boundary with Afghanistan

The guns are blazing a thousand kilometres west of Delhi, silencing voices of dissent and terrorizing civilians in what remains of a country called Afghanistan. Global leaders are maintaining an “active silence” on the gross violations to human life, partially as a guilt of past sins and more so to understand the new nature of governance in a country forever torn between conflicting interests and tribes for at least four decades. That is the tricky territory, the new Government in Afghanistan will have to maneuver while trying to integrate with the new global order, averse to terror activities. Taliban, not known for diplomatic skills or the art of negotiation, has to balance pressures within and outside its troubled borders.It may not be easy by any leap of faith. The outside for Afghanistan is defined by Pakistan which has been Taliban’s sole sponsorfor two decades. Pakistan is elated (as seen in public statements of senior leaders and its open support in multilateral bodies such as UNHRC) by the developments, as it fulfills a bunch of its strategic targets. First, it gets the sole proprietorship of being the key negotiator for Taliban as the latter aims for international legitimacy. Secondly, with the emergence of a hostile force in Afghanistan, India has nearly cut off its economic and diplomatic relationship with Afghanistan. Thirdly, Pakistan’s mentor and key friend in the region, China, gets access to a treasure trove of minerals and tradeable goods besides gaininga strategic infrastructural gold mine in the form of roads to central Asia and land ports. China and Pakistan arenot India’s allies and are sure to use Taliban-trained non-state actors with access to sophisticated weapons and surveillance devices (left by the US) to create violent disruptions in India. This brings us to the question about India which is calmly handling the situation but acknowledging the threat to its borders.

The current Government has briefed key opposition leaders on Afghanistan and the way ahead. Emerging from a fractured monsoon session of parliament which saw for the first time a coalitionof opposition parties unrelenting to let the parliamentary debates take place and asevere rift between ruling and opposition,the Government has clearly sent out a signal of peace on a crucial issue of national security. This has to be balanced and doggedly pursued withan international coalition of likeminded allies willing to participate in this treacherous terrain.  India has to reach out to all its friendly or neutral countries, which share a land boundary with Afghanistan. Iran has been balancing its approach towards Afghanistan by allowing export of petroleum products (even as the US and international agencies have halted any assistance to the country) while at the same time closing its boundaries to avoid a refugee problem. India has strategic relationship with Iran and the external affairs minister was recently invited for the swearing-in ceremony of the new President where the changing regional order (read Afghanistan) was high on agenda. The other countries which share land borders arethe three erstwhile Soviet-ruled central Asian countries with whom India has had a warm relationship in the past. India continues to send high quality medical professional and educators to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. As of now these countries have closed their boundaries to Afghan refugees but the porous borders will not be able the halt march of war. India has to carefully play a balancing game in this region by engaging in deep conversations on the future of Afghanistan. This will go in hand with India’s strategic choice of aligning with the US on key geo-political considerations in the region.

(The writer is a policy analyst. The views expressed are personal.)

(Courtesy: The Pioneer)

India should reach out to all friendly nations which share a boundary with Afghanistan

The guns are blazing a thousand kilometres west of Delhi, silencing voices of dissent and terrorizing civilians in what remains of a country called Afghanistan. Global leaders are maintaining an “active silence” on the gross violations to human life, partially as a guilt of past sins and more so to understand the new nature of governance in a country forever torn between conflicting interests and tribes for at least four decades. That is the tricky territory, the new Government in Afghanistan will have to maneuver while trying to integrate with the new global order, averse to terror activities. Taliban, not known for diplomatic skills or the art of negotiation, has to balance pressures within and outside its troubled borders.It may not be easy by any leap of faith. The outside for Afghanistan is defined by Pakistan which has been Taliban’s sole sponsorfor two decades. Pakistan is elated (as seen in public statements of senior leaders and its open support in multilateral bodies such as UNHRC) by the developments, as it fulfills a bunch of its strategic targets. First, it gets the sole proprietorship of being the key negotiator for Taliban as the latter aims for international legitimacy. Secondly, with the emergence of a hostile force in Afghanistan, India has nearly cut off its economic and diplomatic relationship with Afghanistan. Thirdly, Pakistan’s mentor and key friend in the region, China, gets access to a treasure trove of minerals and tradeable goods besides gaininga strategic infrastructural gold mine in the form of roads to central Asia and land ports. China and Pakistan arenot India’s allies and are sure to use Taliban-trained non-state actors with access to sophisticated weapons and surveillance devices (left by the US) to create violent disruptions in India. This brings us to the question about India which is calmly handling the situation but acknowledging the threat to its borders.

The current Government has briefed key opposition leaders on Afghanistan and the way ahead. Emerging from a fractured monsoon session of parliament which saw for the first time a coalitionof opposition parties unrelenting to let the parliamentary debates take place and asevere rift between ruling and opposition,the Government has clearly sent out a signal of peace on a crucial issue of national security. This has to be balanced and doggedly pursued withan international coalition of likeminded allies willing to participate in this treacherous terrain.  India has to reach out to all its friendly or neutral countries, which share a land boundary with Afghanistan. Iran has been balancing its approach towards Afghanistan by allowing export of petroleum products (even as the US and international agencies have halted any assistance to the country) while at the same time closing its boundaries to avoid a refugee problem. India has strategic relationship with Iran and the external affairs minister was recently invited for the swearing-in ceremony of the new President where the changing regional order (read Afghanistan) was high on agenda. The other countries which share land borders arethe three erstwhile Soviet-ruled central Asian countries with whom India has had a warm relationship in the past. India continues to send high quality medical professional and educators to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. As of now these countries have closed their boundaries to Afghan refugees but the porous borders will not be able the halt march of war. India has to carefully play a balancing game in this region by engaging in deep conversations on the future of Afghanistan. This will go in hand with India’s strategic choice of aligning with the US on key geo-political considerations in the region.

(The writer is a policy analyst. The views expressed are personal.)

(Courtesy: The Pioneer)