While Bangladesh struggles with unheard-of political unrest, India is on the verge of a situation that may completely alter its eastern border. Not only are the current events in our neighboring country internal issues, but they also foreshadow greater repercussions that may shake the subcontinent as a whole. What impact will this chaos in Bangladesh have on India, and why should this worry us?

Now let's get to the core of the issue. Bangladesh, which was once praised as an example of South Asia's economic progress, is currently perilously close to anarchy. The contentious 2018 general elections, which saw Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina win her third straight term despite claims of rampant voter fraud and ballot stuffing, are the source of this issue. In 2024 things have quickly become worse, leading to widespread demonstrations calling for Hasina's resignation across the nation.

However, why should India give a damn? Our linked choices and common past hold the crucial piece. Do you recall the Liberation War of 1971? India's pivotal participation in Bangladesh's independence forged a relationship that has influenced regional politics for decades. This friendship is being put to the test like never before as Bangladesh burns.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is India's biggest commercial partner, with a whopping $18.2 billion in bilateral trade in 2022–2023. This economic lifeblood is immediately threatened by any instability in Bangladesh. However, the ramifications go beyond simple math. A wave of refugees has already poured into the states bordering India as a result of the current conflict. Over 8,000 Bangladeshi citizens have applied for asylum in India since the demonstrations started, according to official statistics, which is similar to the millions of people who fled to India during the 1971 war.

Furthermore, it is impossible to overestimate the geopolitical implications. Bangladesh's strategic position renders it an indispensable participant in India's 'Act East' program. A destabilized Bangladesh would serve as a haven for radical groups, which might spark separatist movements in the northeastern regions of India once more.

Let's take a minute to reflect, though, and consider if we're ready for the worst-case situation. What happens if the Bangladeshi issue gets out of hand? When India last saw a significant influx of refugees from Bangladesh, almost a new country was formed. Are we prepared for yet another seismic shift in the political climate in the area?

India's handling of the Bangladesh crisis will serve as a benchmark for its regional leadership as we consider these issues. Will we take aggressive measures to protect regional stability, or will we passively observe while our neighbor transforms into chaos?

Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room - China. Bangladesh's instability presents our ambitious neighbor to the north with a great opportunity as much as a burden for India. China is observing Bangladesh like a chess piece on a large geopolitical board, while we are shaking our heads at the mayhem next door.

Remember how China has been lavishly throwing money into Bangladesh? We're talking a cool $26 billion since 2016, all part of that Belt and Road Initiative. Imagine now a fragile Bangladesh, in dire need of a lifeline. Who's going to bail with fat wallets and wide arms? You guessed it. The worst part is that every yuan China invests becomes a strand in a web that is gradually entangling our eastern flank.

But money isn't the only factor here, is it? Imagine Bangladesh leaning up to China. Suddenly, the Bay of Bengal no longer seems to be India's backyard as much. Our marine security is this fence, but it's like having a nosy neighbor looking over your fence. Not to mention that China and Pakistan are already great friends on our western border. Can you see a pattern here? It seems like India needs to have an ace up its sleeve. We aren’t just the spectators in this game, we need to destroy any situation where the pieces don’t fall in our favor.

The stakes are extremely high, and time is of the essence. Bangladesh's devastation is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode near India, not only their concern. One thing is certain as we sail these choppy waters: Bangladesh's fate and India's future are intertwined. Are we prepared to weather the storm, is the question.

Views expressed are personal to the writer. 

While Bangladesh struggles with unheard-of political unrest, India is on the verge of a situation that may completely alter its eastern border. Not only are the current events in our neighboring country internal issues, but they also foreshadow greater repercussions that may shake the subcontinent as a whole. What impact will this chaos in Bangladesh have on India, and why should this worry us?

Now let's get to the core of the issue. Bangladesh, which was once praised as an example of South Asia's economic progress, is currently perilously close to anarchy. The contentious 2018 general elections, which saw Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina win her third straight term despite claims of rampant voter fraud and ballot stuffing, are the source of this issue. In 2024 things have quickly become worse, leading to widespread demonstrations calling for Hasina's resignation across the nation.

However, why should India give a damn? Our linked choices and common past hold the crucial piece. Do you recall the Liberation War of 1971? India's pivotal participation in Bangladesh's independence forged a relationship that has influenced regional politics for decades. This friendship is being put to the test like never before as Bangladesh burns.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is India's biggest commercial partner, with a whopping $18.2 billion in bilateral trade in 2022–2023. This economic lifeblood is immediately threatened by any instability in Bangladesh. However, the ramifications go beyond simple math. A wave of refugees has already poured into the states bordering India as a result of the current conflict. Over 8,000 Bangladeshi citizens have applied for asylum in India since the demonstrations started, according to official statistics, which is similar to the millions of people who fled to India during the 1971 war.

Furthermore, it is impossible to overestimate the geopolitical implications. Bangladesh's strategic position renders it an indispensable participant in India's 'Act East' program. A destabilized Bangladesh would serve as a haven for radical groups, which might spark separatist movements in the northeastern regions of India once more.

Let's take a minute to reflect, though, and consider if we're ready for the worst-case situation. What happens if the Bangladeshi issue gets out of hand? When India last saw a significant influx of refugees from Bangladesh, almost a new country was formed. Are we prepared for yet another seismic shift in the political climate in the area?

India's handling of the Bangladesh crisis will serve as a benchmark for its regional leadership as we consider these issues. Will we take aggressive measures to protect regional stability, or will we passively observe while our neighbor transforms into chaos?

Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room - China. Bangladesh's instability presents our ambitious neighbor to the north with a great opportunity as much as a burden for India. China is observing Bangladesh like a chess piece on a large geopolitical board, while we are shaking our heads at the mayhem next door.

Remember how China has been lavishly throwing money into Bangladesh? We're talking a cool $26 billion since 2016, all part of that Belt and Road Initiative. Imagine now a fragile Bangladesh, in dire need of a lifeline. Who's going to bail with fat wallets and wide arms? You guessed it. The worst part is that every yuan China invests becomes a strand in a web that is gradually entangling our eastern flank.

But money isn't the only factor here, is it? Imagine Bangladesh leaning up to China. Suddenly, the Bay of Bengal no longer seems to be India's backyard as much. Our marine security is this fence, but it's like having a nosy neighbor looking over your fence. Not to mention that China and Pakistan are already great friends on our western border. Can you see a pattern here? It seems like India needs to have an ace up its sleeve. We aren’t just the spectators in this game, we need to destroy any situation where the pieces don’t fall in our favor.

The stakes are extremely high, and time is of the essence. Bangladesh's devastation is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode near India, not only their concern. One thing is certain as we sail these choppy waters: Bangladesh's fate and India's future are intertwined. Are we prepared to weather the storm, is the question.

Views expressed are personal to the writer.