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J&K assembly elections may disrupt national unity

J&K assembly elections may disrupt national unity

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has reportedly been advised by international agencies to align with the National Conference ahead of the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) assembly elections. This partnership is seen as a way to frame their joint victory as more than a regional outcome. Regardless of the specific winner, regional pro-Islamist political parties are expected to secure a collective victory in the elections. Notably, Pakistan is unlikely to interfere with the process, as it is essential for the global conspiracy against India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi that the elections appear legitimate through significant popular participation.

Once elected, the J&K assembly is expected to immediately challenge the Indian government’s 2019 decision to rescind Articles 370 and 35A. The political parties projected to win the elections have promised to repudiate this move. They will likely contest the 2019 rescinding as unconstitutional, arguing that it did not have the consent of the J&K Assembly—a point that former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran and others have suggested was constitutionally envisaged.

This move could precipitate a national crisis, as the issue is expected to reach India's Supreme Court. Narendra Modi’s government cannot accept such a challenge to the nation’s constitutional integrity, especially given the practical consequences of the 2019 rescinding, which has already been ratified by Parliament and the Supreme Court. The government will face intense pressure, as any repudiation of the articles by the J&K assembly would present a severe threat to India’s political credibility.

However, concerns have been raised that the Supreme Court may not address this issue swiftly, potentially allowing the crisis to escalate. The Court could deprive the J&K assembly’s actions of legal validity by denouncing its resolution, but there is speculation that it may instead delay the matter, allowing political tensions to grow. Interestingly, the Chief Justice of India has pushed for the elections to be held by September, reportedly threatening the Election Commission with contempt of court if the elections are delayed.
Should the Modi government take no action in response to the unfolding crisis, its authority could be significantly undermined, and the legitimacy of the Delhi government may suffer as the newly elected J&K assembly moves forward with its challenge to the 2019 decision.

This could set the stage for a broader political crisis, with national protests erupting against any firm measures taken by the government. Some observers believe this could paralyze the country, combined with a potential Khalistani uprising in Delhi, which is allegedly being prepared openly. This destabilization might also include bombings and train derailments, adding to the national turmoil.

At this critical juncture, key NDA allies like Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu could threaten to withdraw their support unless Narendra Modi resigns, aiming to defuse the crisis. Such a resignation would pave the way for Articles 370 and 35A to be restored through new parliamentary legislation, with the blame for the preceding chaos being placed squarely on Modi’s 2019 actions.

Global media, in turn, would likely amplify calls for regime change. For Modi, resigning and allowing the NDA to continue without him might be preferable to seeing the coalition collapse entirely. His departure would offer some personal security issues, as there may be no safe haven abroad. Ultimately, Modi's resignation would halt India’s rise as a global player, with many of his domestic and international adversaries prioritizing his political downfall over the country’s future trajectory.

J&K assembly elections may disrupt national unity

J&K assembly elections may disrupt national unity

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has reportedly been advised by international agencies to align with the National Conference ahead of the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) assembly elections. This partnership is seen as a way to frame their joint victory as more than a regional outcome. Regardless of the specific winner, regional pro-Islamist political parties are expected to secure a collective victory in the elections. Notably, Pakistan is unlikely to interfere with the process, as it is essential for the global conspiracy against India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi that the elections appear legitimate through significant popular participation.

Once elected, the J&K assembly is expected to immediately challenge the Indian government’s 2019 decision to rescind Articles 370 and 35A. The political parties projected to win the elections have promised to repudiate this move. They will likely contest the 2019 rescinding as unconstitutional, arguing that it did not have the consent of the J&K Assembly—a point that former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran and others have suggested was constitutionally envisaged.

This move could precipitate a national crisis, as the issue is expected to reach India's Supreme Court. Narendra Modi’s government cannot accept such a challenge to the nation’s constitutional integrity, especially given the practical consequences of the 2019 rescinding, which has already been ratified by Parliament and the Supreme Court. The government will face intense pressure, as any repudiation of the articles by the J&K assembly would present a severe threat to India’s political credibility.

However, concerns have been raised that the Supreme Court may not address this issue swiftly, potentially allowing the crisis to escalate. The Court could deprive the J&K assembly’s actions of legal validity by denouncing its resolution, but there is speculation that it may instead delay the matter, allowing political tensions to grow. Interestingly, the Chief Justice of India has pushed for the elections to be held by September, reportedly threatening the Election Commission with contempt of court if the elections are delayed.
Should the Modi government take no action in response to the unfolding crisis, its authority could be significantly undermined, and the legitimacy of the Delhi government may suffer as the newly elected J&K assembly moves forward with its challenge to the 2019 decision.

This could set the stage for a broader political crisis, with national protests erupting against any firm measures taken by the government. Some observers believe this could paralyze the country, combined with a potential Khalistani uprising in Delhi, which is allegedly being prepared openly. This destabilization might also include bombings and train derailments, adding to the national turmoil.

At this critical juncture, key NDA allies like Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu could threaten to withdraw their support unless Narendra Modi resigns, aiming to defuse the crisis. Such a resignation would pave the way for Articles 370 and 35A to be restored through new parliamentary legislation, with the blame for the preceding chaos being placed squarely on Modi’s 2019 actions.

Global media, in turn, would likely amplify calls for regime change. For Modi, resigning and allowing the NDA to continue without him might be preferable to seeing the coalition collapse entirely. His departure would offer some personal security issues, as there may be no safe haven abroad. Ultimately, Modi's resignation would halt India’s rise as a global player, with many of his domestic and international adversaries prioritizing his political downfall over the country’s future trajectory.

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