Election 2019: Analyzing Why UP is Crucial for BJP to Win

by July 8, 2018 0 comments

Analyzing Why UP is Crucial for BJP to WinBJP won their last elections by full-majority UP votes. In this election, the greatest challenge BJP will face is to save it 73 seats. Out of the 73 seats, BJP has 71, whereas, 2 belong to Apna Dal, their alliance partner. UP will, therefore, be BJP’s first priority in this election.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has started the campaign for the next Lok Sabha Elections. Dialogue with the beneficiaries of different schemes of the Central Government through the NaMo App is part of the campaign. Along with that, his rallies and programmes for different States have been fixed. It is being said that PM Modi will visit Uttar Pradesh almost every month and address a big rally in some part of the State.

It was, after all, UP that had pushed the BJP into power with full majority. This time, the party’s greatest challenge is to save its 73 seats. Of the 73, the BJP has 71 of its own and two seats belong to its alliance partner, Apna Dal. That is why UP is the first priority in the BJP’s election strategy. Hence, the BJP and RSS have decided to give it their all in the State.

Recently, there was a coordination meeting between the RSS and BJP in UP, which was attended by Yogi Adityanath and other senior leaders of the party. It is possible that the RSS chief could have directed Yogi to hold the Kumbh Mela on a grand scale next year. The Central and State Governments are also gearing up for the event, which is expected to reap political benefits for the BJP.

Meanwhile, preparations are on for the rallies of PM Modi. In the last week of June, the PM went to Maghar where he inaugurated the Kabir Academy and addressed a rally. His next rally might be held on July 15. Modi is going to his own constituency, Varanasi, for two days, where he will address a gathering and announce sops for his constituency.

Some say Modi’s next rally will be held in Azamgarh — the old bastion of Samajwadi Party, and from where Mulayam Singh Yadav is presently an MP. Though he would probably not fight from here this time. This place is also significant for the politics of Purvanchal. So, in July, the PM might address a rally in Azamgarh. After that, Modi will go to Siddharthnagar in August. Till the elections are announced, Modi is expected to address a rally in UP every month.


The Congress is playing pressure politics with the RJD in the same way the JDU is playing politics with its alliance partner, the BJP. In this game, leaders of the Congress and JDU are helping each other. It started when the Congress in-charge, Shaktisinh Gohil, invited Nitish Kumar to join the Mahagathbandhan. Nitish used this opportunity to put pressure on the BJP, but Tejashwi Yadav is well aware of this game and exposed it by directly opposing Nitish.

After that, the Congress leaders openly put pressure on the RJD. Former president of Bihar Congress, Shakeel Ahmad, advised Tejashwi not to use such words for Nitish. He also said that if the Congress leaders had given any statement about him, he must not retaliate by using harsh words against Nitish.

The real motive behind Ahmad’s statement was to tell the RJD that it had the option of Nitish also. In fact, the RJD leaders are using alliance partners other than the Congress as well. It has brought in Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), but they are asking for five Lok Sabha seats. Meanwhile, the RJD is also in talks with the CPI and CPM. The RJD will leave at least three seats for them, and in this scenario, there is a chance that the Congress will get very few seats.

On the other hand, if the Congress goes with the RJD, Shakeel Ahmad’s ticket from Madhubani is also in danger. The last time, he was not able to fight from this seat. The Congress is putting pressure to get more seats than the RJD. In the last Lok Sabha Elections, the Congress had fought on 15 seats, and this time, the party is eyeing at least 12 seats. In this pressure game, the Congress has also included Gujarat’s Patidar leader, Hardik Patel.


The alliance between the Congress and NCP is almost decided in Maharashtra, and both parties will fight together. This time, the NCP leaders are demanding a change in the old formula; they are not ready for the 26 and 22 seats formula. They say that the NCP had won more seats in the last elections, so this time, it must be given at least equal number of seats, if not more than the Congress.

In the last Lok Sabha Elections, the Congress was almost finished. Only two of its leaders — Rajeev Satav and Ashok Chavan — were able to make an entry into the Lok Sabha. On the other hand, four NCP leaders had emerged victorious in the LS polls. Recently, the NCP won the Bhandara-Gondiya seat in the byelections. Now, the NCP has five MPs, while the Congress has only two. That is why the NCP leaders are demanding equal seats.

The NCP wants both parties to get 24 seats of the total 48. And if any new partner joins in, both parties will share their seats in equal ratio.

The leader of Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana, Raju Shetti, has left the partnership of the BJP. The last time around, he had fought along with the BJP and Shiv Sena and had won. He is the leader of farmers and had left the hand of the BJP on the issue of farmers. Now, he will go with the Congress and NCP. The NCP might leave one seat for him from its own quota. If the BSP also comes along, the Congress could leave one seat from its quota.


Sushil Kumar Modi, the BJP leader and Deputy CM of Bihar, is on the offensive against Lalu Prasad and his son Tejashwi. The moment Nitish seemed to be inching towards the Mahagathbandhan again, Sushil Modi sharpened his attack on Lalu’s family. This must be noted that when Nitish was in the Mahagathbandhan, Sushil Modi exposed the hidden properties of Lalu, Rabri, Tejashwi, and Misa, and Nitish had made this the basis to leave Lalu’s side. When the BJP and JDU formed the Government, Sushil Modi went quiet. When the Congress leaders are trying to take Nitish into the Mahagathbandhan again and tension is rising between the JDU and BJP, Sushil Modi is targeting the Lalu family again. He has said that Lalu is the biggest zamindar of Bihar, giving details of the properties which were bought by the Government and later transferred on lease to Tejashwi. It is being said that such exposés are being done only to stop Nitish from changing his mind.

Writer: Hari Shankar Vyas

Courtesy: The Pioneer

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