The Trump administration’s hopes that escalating tariffs on Chinese goods will drive Apple to manufacture iPhones in the U.S. remain far from reality. Despite tariffs on Chinese-made products now reaching 145%, analysts say the prospect of Apple shifting production stateside is highly improbable.

Apple has relied on China’s vast manufacturing ecosystem for nearly two decades, and relocating would require rebuilding a complex supply chain from scratch—an endeavor that could take years and cost billions. Experts warn that U.S.-made iPhones could cost over $3,000, tripling current prices and potentially crippling demand.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called the idea of U.S.-based iPhone production a “non-starter,” estimating any such shift wouldn’t happen before 2028. Apple has not commented publicly on the matter, but CEO Tim Cook may address the issue during the company’s May 1 earnings call.

The tariffs have already had a notable impact. Since the latest hikes began on April 2, Apple’s stock has dropped 15%, erasing $500 billion in market value. While Apple is expected to eventually raise prices, its robust services division—generating $96 billion last fiscal year—gives it some room to absorb costs in the short term.

Apple has made symbolic moves to appease the administration, announcing $500 billion in U.S. investments and 20,000 new jobs by 2028. But these efforts are focused on data centers and AI infrastructure, not iPhone production.

Trump previously tried to pressure Apple into U.S. manufacturing during his first term, ultimately exempting iPhones from tariffs. Although Apple has diversified some production to India and Vietnam, experts say replicating China’s scale and skilled labor remains an insurmountable challenge for now.

Despite political rhetoric, Apple’s iPhone assembly is expected to remain overseas for the foreseeable future.

The Trump administration’s hopes that escalating tariffs on Chinese goods will drive Apple to manufacture iPhones in the U.S. remain far from reality. Despite tariffs on Chinese-made products now reaching 145%, analysts say the prospect of Apple shifting production stateside is highly improbable.

Apple has relied on China’s vast manufacturing ecosystem for nearly two decades, and relocating would require rebuilding a complex supply chain from scratch—an endeavor that could take years and cost billions. Experts warn that U.S.-made iPhones could cost over $3,000, tripling current prices and potentially crippling demand.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called the idea of U.S.-based iPhone production a “non-starter,” estimating any such shift wouldn’t happen before 2028. Apple has not commented publicly on the matter, but CEO Tim Cook may address the issue during the company’s May 1 earnings call.

The tariffs have already had a notable impact. Since the latest hikes began on April 2, Apple’s stock has dropped 15%, erasing $500 billion in market value. While Apple is expected to eventually raise prices, its robust services division—generating $96 billion last fiscal year—gives it some room to absorb costs in the short term.

Apple has made symbolic moves to appease the administration, announcing $500 billion in U.S. investments and 20,000 new jobs by 2028. But these efforts are focused on data centers and AI infrastructure, not iPhone production.

Trump previously tried to pressure Apple into U.S. manufacturing during his first term, ultimately exempting iPhones from tariffs. Although Apple has diversified some production to India and Vietnam, experts say replicating China’s scale and skilled labor remains an insurmountable challenge for now.

Despite political rhetoric, Apple’s iPhone assembly is expected to remain overseas for the foreseeable future.