Love him, and hate him but people will keep his name on the board. Narendra Modi is the focal point of discussion either way for the ongoing general elections in India. There is an exextremelyharp division among the voters in favour or against Narendra Modi the entire country. News channels, newspapers, and social media reflect the vertical division in society. India was never more divided on the ideological ground than it is today for the GE 2019. Rahul Gandhi-led Congress is slightly better placed than in 2014, with state governments in M.P., Rajasthan and Chattisgarh under his belt – Congress is poised for substantive gains. But with the reverses in the recently concluded state elections, BJP has tightened its belt in going ahead with the planning of the GE 2019. Narendra Modi has rebranded himself roaroundhe the garb of nationalism post-Pulwama attack and subsequent Balakot AiAirstrike
After four phases, Modi’s change in campaign tactic to say the BJP win is certain will give the BJP the winner’s momentum. Again losing an opportunity, Rahul Gandhi has not given a convincing fefeelinghat the job of dethroning Modi has been almost achieved. So what is 2019 all about? Till May 23 proves us all right, or wrong – I would argue there is a mild Modi wave in the country. It is an ununder-currento to give him another chance, all things considered. It does not sound as strong as 2014 but BJP has a didistinctdvantage over its rivals in running a well-oiled campaign. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP is flush with cash, giving his bloc a massive advantage over the main opposition Congress party as he seeks to win a second term in India’s general election. But current and former BJP supporters, opposition politicians, businessmen and activists interviewed say Modi has an unprecedented advantage, thanks to its financial muscle and ststructuredarty cadre. The regional powerhouse in Telangana, AP, WB and TN are likely to play a decisive role in the formation of the next government. We may revert to the GE 2004 & 2009 situation where the southern parties played a dominant role in the formation of the government at the centre.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre may cross the magic threshold of 272 mark in the 543-seat Lok Sabha. According to the OPINION EXPRESS survey, the NDA may win 280-290 seats, the Congress-led UPA – 111, and Others – 144. The BJP, according to the poll, will come down from the 282 seats it had won in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections but will increase its vote share from 31.34 per cent to 36 per cent. The Congress will increase its seat tally from the 44 it won in 2014 to 85-90 seats; its vote share will go from 19.52% to nearly 27% in the national elections. The others are predicted to get 125 seats with a 31% vote share in the Lok Sabha.
The second most important factor is the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the run-up to the General Elections. He is scoring over 51% approval rating in the various surveys conducted by several domestic and overseas agencies. Modi is perceived as a strong leader capable of defending the country from external and internal aggression. Modi’s pro-poor schemes are likely to yield results in the rural area where BJP is traditionally weak.
Third, BJP is in a fierce fight in the areas where it has no stakes prior to 2014. Today it is a force in West Bengal, North East, Odisha and it is desperately trying to open accounts in Kerala, Telangana. It is largely the hard work of Amit Shah to create a fighting base in the states where BJP is likely to gain substantial seats.
In the last five years, RSS has expanded its cadre across India with a friendly government in the centre. The disciplined RSS cadre is likely to play a pivotal role in securing an edge for BJP in the general elections.
We are keeping our figures crossed till 23 May 2019 and the entire globe is looking to India for settling down with the next government in the month of May 2019. May the best man win?
— Prashant Tewari, E d i t o r – i n – C h i e f
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) released its manifesto shortly before the Election Commission’s deadlines, a sign that it clearly doesn’t seem to be needing one. It is indeed of statistical import considering that all positions taken in it have been articulated by its leaders with some degree of consistency and sameness. In that sense, the manifesto is but a pallid status report of what the party in governance did, a balance sheet in its favour and a projection of what it needs to do in the future to meet, in its view, the only debt of expectation. Neither did it attempt a comparison with the vision document of the Congress, nor did it look back on its own. If in 2014, there was the dream of achche din and its deliverer in Narendra Modi, 2019 is about the charioteer who has paved his own road. If 2014 was about possibilities, 2019 is about a concrete action. If 2014 was tentative, emphasising the social paradigm of development, this one is hyperbolic, about the futuristic India of 2047. If 2014 was about the first among equals, 2019 is about one man, larger than life. And after the placatory moves of sabka saath, it is a more predatory stance of the sankalp of a One India. On its nationalist and persuasive terms, of course. The remaining gap of conviction is anyway being made up by Modi through a personal interface at rallies and television studios.
In a way, this manifesto actually addresses the party’s Hindutva core to the hilt without the visionary pretence of 2014. Now that polarisation has seeped into the societal trellis, the party has come out openly with an agenda that is frankly no longer dependent on the Ram temple. And the Pulwama-Balakot events have built up a hypernationalist sentiment that is pegged on the idea of India is under attack. So its manifesto merely puts on paper what its leaders have been saying so far, that the party, once in power, will abolish Article 370 and Article 35A that confer special status and protect local ownership rights in Jammu and Kashmir, the State that recently events have established as a hotbed of terrorism, especially of the exported kind. The removal of Article 35A is ostensibly to push for development and economic opportunities through outside investment. While the party had mentioned Article 370 in 2014 as well, it still went ahead and forged an impossible and asymmetric alliance with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to work its way through governance. While that model failed, the rise in terrorism and the Pulwama attacks only made it easier for the BJP to argue why zero tolerance of victimhood meant that demonstrable action be taken against Pakistan and by extension its pawns in Kashmir. Whatever the legalities or complexities involved later, the BJP is hoping that by generating a debate and provoking extreme reactions from Kashmiris themselves, it can further coalesce the Hindu majority which has latent anxieties about a differential status. It is the reason why despite the massive protests and violence in the Northeast, the party has brought the Citizenship Amendment Bill back on the agenda, simply because it honours civilisational contiguity and wants to emerge as a champion of the larger Indic cause by offering to take back persecuted Hindu minorities from Islamic neighbours. In the process, it doesn’t mind risking the wrath of its new allies there. It is for this reason alone that the manifesto is silent on hate crimes, which have set the ambient temperature of a deeply fractured polity. Identity has clearly submerged livelihood issues and the manifesto just about skirts the elephant in the room — farmers’ distress and jobs. While there is no straightforward commitment on job numbers, a self-created trap of 2014 from which the party is yet to emerge, it does hold out the hope of creating new opportunities in 22 sectors. It has definitively pledged a “women in the workforce” roadmap to encourage companies to hire more women. Suitably vague and promising at the same time, one might add. There are a reiteration and the right noises of doubling farm incomes by 2022, taking healthcare forward with technology, judicial reforms, ease of living, education, science and so on. In short, a bouquet of promises and an argument why the party needs to be given five more years. This manifesto is certainly not trying to claim an intellectual high ground, just officially recording what has been said this past year. Neither is it a template for future governance. All it does is build a vote-catching narrative. The reality, as always, can change later.
Writer: Pioneer
Courtesy: The Pioneer
The Modi government is being credited for a host of reform programs to attract FDI, improve the ease of doing business, and roll out of goods and services tax (GST).
All the structural changes in a vast nation do generate enormous dust but the trust factor in PM Modi has sailed the boat for NDA in the last four years of governance. There are many areas where the government’s actions have improved the lives of the people or are expected to do so, especially in the rural area where there is huge farmer distress and unemployment crisis. Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA government completes four years in office on 26 May 2018 and the list of achievements is a long one. The Modi government is being credited for a host of reform programmes to attract FDI, improve the ease of doing business, and roll out of goods and services tax (GST).
The corruption has been curtailed by the effective usage of technology and strict monitoring of programs. The various corruption laws are amended and the enforcing agencies are given the discretion to nab the corrupt public servants.
As Modi govt completes four years in office, The Opinion Express brings out its report card
Four years of Modi government: In the biggest election of India’s history, Narendra Modi, the three-term chief minister of Gujarat stormed to power with a thumping majority for his vision for a developed India. In his first major address to the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort on August 15, 2014, Narendra Modi announced his flagship Jan-Dhan Yojana, which to date is one of the jewels in his crown.
Others are the successful implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the introduction of Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). With India expected to emerge as the fastest-growing major economy again this financial year, especially after slumping to as low as 5.7% due to disruptions from structural changes, this could be a big shot in the arm of Narendra Modi ahead of the 2019 polls. From Ujjwala Yojana to Saubhagya Yojana — Narendra Modi gets full marks for his efforts, even as some targets are expected to be missed.
As Modi completes 4 years, India Inc’s thumbs up to economy; CII says GST cyclone over, reforms on track: As the BJP-led NDA government completes four years in office, industry chamber CII today said India’s economy is robust with GST system having settled down and reforms firmly on the right path. In a statement, CII Director General Chandrajit Banerjee said over the last four years, the government has systematically addressed major pain points for the economy such as ease of doing business, non-performing assets of banks, foreign direct investment rules, infrastructure construction and exit of failing enterprises.
Achche din may be several years away, but PM must get full marks for trying: Achche din may be several years away, but the NDA government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi must get full marks for trying. Four years into the government’s regime, the economy is not exactly rocking. GDP has clocked in at an average of 7.3% annually between FY15 and FY18, below the 7.5% notched up in the five years prior to that. Manufacturing is muddling along, but exports are in a shambles leaving private sector investment stagnant, and few jobs on offer. The damage from demonetisation and GST is slowly coming undone, but business sentiment remains subdued.
Sensex leaps 10,000 points! 4 winning feats that steered stock market to record highs: In the span of last four years, Indian stock markets have fared considerably well as compared to regional Asian peers and Wall Street — the world’s largest equity markets by turnover. The benchmark equity index BSE Sensex has added about 10,000 points in the last four years breaching the key levels of 30,000 for the first time under Narendra Modi-led NDA government. The S&P BSE Sensex has gained as much as 9,970 points to 34,663 from a level of 24,693 as on 23 May 2018, before swearing-in ceremony of Narendra Modi as PM.
Has India created enough jobs? Debate on, but this next challenge will be bigger: While formal jobs have indeed been created, muted household income and savings macro data suggest muted quality of jobs in aggregate. “Job quality is the real issue for Indian macro and markets, manifested in the slowing growth of the middle class,” Gautam Chhaochharia, Analyst and Sanjena Dadawala, Analysts at UBS said in the report.
4 small reforms by Modi that went unnoticed: In 2016, the Lok Sabha repealed 1,175 of 1,827 laws that were identified as obsolete, and many other steps were taken to make lives of common people easier. From self-attestation to doing away with birth certificate for passport to Tatkal reforms to easing I-T filing, these reforms went unnoticed in the four years of Modi-led NDA government.
These 5 ministries get stellar score from people, and Finance is not among them: The top five ministries of the Modi government are Defence, External Affairs, New and Renewable Energy, Coal, and Road, Transport and Highways, a survey conducted by Local Circles showed. Indians have given a stellar score to the Defence Ministry — 4.9 on the scale of 5. The government has been applauded for “taking some bold steps like the surgical strikes against Pakistan,” Local Circles said.
Even after 4 years, Modi is winning hearts; Survey shows 57% Indians happy with his work: A total of 57% Indians say that the Narendra Modi government has “either met or exceeded” their expectations in the last four years, a survey said. A majority of Indians are particularly happy with Narendra Modi’s effort in improving India’s image globally, handling of Pakistan, fighting terrorism, infrastructure development and reducing tax harassment, a survey report by Local Circles said.
Four ambitious targets NDA is poised to miss: After taking over the Prime Minister’s Office in 2014, Narendra Modi shared his vision to make India an investor-friendly destination, which would subsequently lead to job creation and development. However, despite ambitious plans like Make in India, Narendra Modi, four years later, is poised to miss some targets. Amit Shah says PM Modi works for 15-18 hours every day: BJP provided the most hardworking Prime Minister & the most popular leader in the world to the country, a PM who works for 1518 hours a day. We are proud that this Prime Minister is a leader of BJP, says Amit Shah.
Challenges: Pakistan and China are the major source of worry for Modi government. Kashmir policy persuaded by NDA government has yielded no results. In fact, the militancy in the state is on the rise. The hawkish approach has yielded no dividends. China has a pro Pakistan policy and Beijing is looking to mediate in the Kashmir matter. Doklam, POK, Burma, South China Sea, Dalai Lama and trade imbalance are the pending issues with practically no solution. China has practically expanded in India’s next door countries through infrastructure projects and defence cooperation; it is a great challenge for Modi led NDA government in respect to the nation security.
Social Harmony: The Modi government must focus on building confidence with the minority community and the SC/ST community in India. It may be a perception that the NDA government led by Narendra Modi has targeted minorities and socially deprived sections of the communities though in government defence, it is a collective effort of opposition to portray Modi sarkar to be anti-minority and anti-dalit to reap political benefits. The sooner this problem is addressed, the better it will be for the nation.
Foreign Policy
Modi’s international trips have always generated a buzz. In the past four years, the PM has travelled six continents: 36 foreign trips visiting 54 countries; India’s global presence is said to have become stronger ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came into power after 2014 general elections. At one point, he was also criticized for his international trips. However, it has been said that in the four years of Modi as PM, India’s bilateral ties with major economies have improved.
India and the big economies
The country most frequented by PM Modi was the United States, where he made five visits including the UN General Assembly meeting in 2014. Indo-US relations were tensed under the second UPA regime, but has certainly improved since the entry of Modi.
Defence, economic and political ties between India and the US have improved a lot since Modi. The two countries signed Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), the defence agreement pending since 2004. Pakistan remains a major policy discussion between the countries. Trump’s tough talk on Pakistan has aligned the US with India’s old frustration with the country.
On his trips to the United Kingdom, PM Modi met Queen Elizabeth twice, once in 2015 and recently in April this year as well as his British counterpart Theresa May. India is the third largest investor in UK, making their ties crucial. Modi recently signed memorandums for National Clean Ganga Mission, skill development and vocational programmes and an agreement between NITI Aayog and UK’s Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.
Modi also visited China, Germany and Russia four times in the past four years. Relations between India and China have been strained since the Doklam issue arose and these meetings have defined the two countries’ relationships with each other. Modi was one of the first to congratulate Xi Jinping when he was re-elected as the president of China.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Modi met recently in an informal summit in Sochi, where PM Modi said India-Russia ties have “stood the test of time”. Germany is India’s biggest trade partner in the European Union, and ties have strengthened with each visit Modi paid Chancellor Angela Merkel. PM Modi also made three visits of strategic importance to France in his four years.
India’s neighbours
Narendra Modi has stressed on relations with neighbouring countries ever since he took office. The prime minister paid three visits to Nepal since 2014. Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Bhutan are also on the list. Modi had stressed a lot on how South Asian countries must work together for better individual economic standings. Before relations went south, Modi had also visited Pakistan and held talks with then PM Nawaz Sharif. Unfortunately, PM Nawaz Sharif with whom PM Modi had developed personal relationship reigned and the clock went back to square one. The Kashmir issue and OROP remains the burning obstacles in securing better relationship between the two countries, the border tensions and limited hostilities are the regular feature at the LOC that Modi government has failed to reduce and eliminate from the source.
India’s relations with Middle Eastern countries have soared since Modi came to power. Summits with leaders of Israel, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Palestine and Afghanistan were held.
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and PM Modi showcased a fast friendship during the former’s visit to India in January 2018. Modi asked Israeli companies to take advantage of the “liberalized FDI regime to make more in India”. Moreover, Netanyahu had described Israel’s relations with India as a “marriage made in heaven”! The Middle Eastern economies have been a priority of the Modi government since India is dependent on them for two-third of the oil imports. Many Indians migrate to the Middle East for jobs too.
Other countries PM Modi visited include Japan, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Fiji, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Netherlands, South Africa, South Korea, Spain and Sweden.
Domestic Politics
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government has increased its electoral footprint from just eight states in 2014 to 20 in four years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership to emerge as the strongest political force in the country.
In fact, from just being a “formidable” force in the Hindi-heartland, the NDA is now in power across the North, with the only exception in Punjab, besides being part of ruling coalitions in seven of the eight states in the NorthEast.
The BJP is now looking to increase its electoral and social presence in the East and the South, where the NDA has marginal presence. Party leaders believe that Modi’s unwavering popularity will eventually help the NDA oust regional heavyweights, such as Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik, from their bastions, before it can increase its presence beyond the Vindhyas.
“The four years can be defined for BJP on the basis of expansion of the party both electorally and socially. Now, the BJP is the central force in national politics. The entire opposition, whether national or regional parties, is now coming together to oppose us.
This is the biggest influence of the BJP on national politics,” said a senior BJP leader, requesting anonymity.
The increasing dominance of the BJP in national politics can be established from the fact that it has wrestled away 12 states from the Congress in the last four years, while the NDA has had 14 electoral victories since Modi came to power. The emergence of the BJP as the political powerhouse took shape at the cost of the Congress, which has not only faced a series of electoral losses, but has seen its support base shrinking even in key states. The trigger was the historic defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, wherein it recorded the lowest-ever tally with just 44 Lok Sabha members.
Apart from the recent success in Karnataka, where it formed a post-poll alliance with the Janata Dal (Secular), the Congress is left with just Punjab, Mizoram and Puducherry. “Ever since the Lok Sabha defeat, electorally it has been a difficult time for us, but the tide is turning in our favour now. All the recent Lok Sabha bypolls show that the BJP is losing its momentum and popular support,” a senior Congress parliamentarian said, requesting anonymity.
With less than a year left for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress is now looking to bring together all opposition parties to form an anti-BJP coalition. The presence of top leaders of more than 15 opposition parties during the swearing-in of H.D. Kumaraswamy as the Karnataka chief minister was seen as a show of strength.
In the last lap of its five-year term, the NDA is also facing a key electoral challenge with three states—Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh— currently ruled by the BJP going to polls later this year. It will also be a test for the Congress, which is attempting to rediscover itself ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
(Writer is Political Editor of Opinion Express Group)
The Opposition front will give us a CMP but how will it silence the catfights and become a beehive?
With the country barely ten weeks away from the much-awaited general elections, we are still tentative about the second option to the Modi government. There are numerous questions that are center-stage at the moment – Is it going to be the federal front, a cluster of regional satraps who perform extremely well in their states and commiserating with each other’s wrongful treatment, hope to stake egolessly for a Centre that’s more cooperative than unitary? Is it going to be a Congress-led front? Is it going to be UPA III where everybody has the capacity to be first among progressive equals? Does it have a slogan to capture the national imagination other than cutouts of a fighter plane, Constitution or Parliament that talk of holding up institutional integrity but wash little with the voter in the countryside? These are still unanswered questions and though the key architects of Opposition unity — NCP’s Sharad Pawar, Trinamool Congress’ Mamata Banerjee, TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu, AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal and Congress chief Rahul Gandhi — at last agreed to forge a pre-poll alliance and come up with a common minimum programme, it does seem too little too late, simply because it looks like a hurried patchwork rather than being a vision statement for 2020. If this had been articulated even some months ago, the Opposition would have actually been seen as offering an alternative. For truth be told, it would not get such a politically fertile ground ever to turn the tide in its favour.
There is perceptible dissatisfaction about the Modi government’s policies, be it demonetisation, faulty GST, joblessness, economic slowdown and unfulfilled promises. Had the Opposition offered a CMP of recovery earlier and driven it into our recent memory, it would be far more coherent and trustable. Had the alliance coalesced all the constituencies whose interests cannot be seriously represented by the BJP, given its monolithic nature and exclusive politics, then there would not be any hesitation about how they would work this out at the polling booth level. Had they convincingly set up an ideological reason for a title clash, it would be easier for them to explain why social bases would not collide but could be aligned for a common purpose. They even have bypoll results to show it. India is not about gullible voters anymore but smart deal-makers who would like to know what’s on offer rather than buying into the fear of a rabid sequel of an engulfing Hindu Rashtra. All Opposition leaders need to take their fiercest stands yet but even at this 11th hour they are running with the hare and hunting with the hounds. While Mamata is ready to sacrifice her own existence and make peace with the Congress nationally to defeat the BJP, she is riled by the state unit of the grand old party lampooning her in Parliament no less. She told Congress supremo Sonia Gandhi she would not forget the insult and urged AAP to win all seven seats in Delhi on its own steam than tying up with the Congress. BSP chief Mayawati is publicly flogging the Congress for “state terror” like the BJP over the cow slaughter arrests under NSA. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav can hardly rein in his father Mulayam Singh Yadav from praising Modi or give excuses of geriatric senilities. Both SP and BSP have stayed away from the Congress simply because seat-sharing experiments have not resulted in net gain for them, the Congress vote going to hierarchical parties instead of a loyalty transfer. And now that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has lent some spunk in the Congress campaign, that party believes that it needs to go it alone in all states and rebuild itself with a sprinkling of charisma than subsume its existence to regional parties. The Opposition must realise that Modi isn’t just an enemy, he rose as a reaction to what it is, a pluralistic chaos than warrior knights on a crusade.
Courtesy: The Pioneer
India has made significant progress in the last few decades, and today it is one of the most prominent country in the new world order. The steel frame of the country is constructed by brilliant leaders namely Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, PV Narsimha Rao, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Dr Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi to position India in the top list of global super power. Technocrats, Scientists, Bureaucrats, Diplomats, Judges, Journalists, Social community leaders has put their maximum effort to uplift India from an under developed nation to a highly progressive nation. Today we are at the high table of the various global power centers and the world acknowledges the contribution of India in making the world a better place to live. Initially the role of People of Indian Origin people living in various part of the world is greatly undermined because of the size of the Diaspora but liberalization process and opening of Indian economy has put the PIO community in the mainstream of the global Indian interest, so the Indian Diaspora started acting as India’s permanent Ambassadors spreading the country’s cultural ethos and heritage.
A recent UN report says that India now has the largest ‘Diaspora’ in the world, with more than 16 million persons of Indian origin living abroad. This Non Resident
Indian (NRI) pool represents a little over 1 per cent of India’s population but is a crucial cog in the wheel of India’s development.
How does the Indian Diaspora benefit India? The biggest way is through regular remittances. According to a World Bank report released in April, India was the largest remittance-receiving country in the world, with an estimated $69 billion in 2015. This amounts to a whopping 3.4 per cent of India’s GDP, an amazing multiplier because just 1 per cent of the citizenry, which does not even live in the country, contributes more than three times its fair share to the nation’s wealth. India should show that it is serious about managing its relationship with the NRIs by opening a separate Minister-of-State level department for NRI administration – similar to the Veterans’ Administration in the US. This department would act as the NRI voice across various Indian government agencies and promote engagement with NRIs to help India’s larger cause.
The Pravasi Bhartiya Divas 2019 is special for the visiting PIO community because the event is organized at the oldest living city of the modern world – Varanasi, it will be an experience for the participant to explore the ancient Indian culture and learn more about India. Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore may offer better facilities and accommodation but the true prospective to learn the Indian way of life can be understood by staying in Varanasi for few days.
As we are entering in 2019, the global PIO population is poised to shine even brighter. A prominent Senator lady of Indian origin is likely to contest US presidential elections in 2020, major global tech companies continues to be headed by PIO technocrats, global media is dominated by prominent Indian journalists, new generation entrepreneurship is likely to drive several business entities. The Indian Diaspora has contributed enormously to strengthening India’s cultural, literary, political and economic bonds across the world. India sees PIO community as an important bridge with the countries where PIO community is living. PIO community must be effectively utilized as an instrumental in building the people to people ties to promote brand India at the global platform.
—Prashant Tewari , Editor-in-Chief
India must realise that its NRIs can act as a crucial force in its development, and leverage its potential
A recent UN report says that India now has the largest ‘diaspora’ in the world, with more than 16 million persons of Indian origin living abroad. This Non Resident Indian (NRI) pool represents a little over 1 per cent of India’s population but is a crucial cog in the wheel of India’s development.
How does the Indian diaspora benefit India? The biggest way is through regular remittances. According to a World Bank report released in April, India was the largest remittance-receiving country in the world, with an estimated $69 billion in 2015.
This amounts to a whopping 3.4 per cent of India’s GDP, an amazing multiplier because just 1 per cent of the citizenry, which does not even live in the country, contributes more than three times its fair share to the nation’s wealth.
Stimulating the economy
There are other advantages which diaspora populations bring that are harder to measure. When they visit India, they tend to spend more lavishly than the locals, thereby helping economic activity. NRIs are more prone to donating to domestic charities because of the strong cultural and emotional feelings that they nurse.
They bring technical and domain expertise to domestic startups and often act as angel investors. Diaspora Indian faculty abroad volunteer time and resources to help faculty on Indian campuses improve the quality of education — as in the case of member institutions of the Indo Universal Collaboration of Engineering Education.
With a little commitment and some creative thinking, the government could double or even treble the already substantial economic value of diaspora contributions by carefully de-signing a set of policies to exploit the talent, industriousness and patriotism of those living abroad. (Full disclosure: This writer has been an NRI for 30 years).
For inspiration, India just needs to look at recent policies implemented by the US, Canada and Germany in the last 18 months to take advantage of Indian migrants. President Obama signed executive orders in May to extend the optional practical training visa durations of foreign students who earn Master’s and PhD degrees in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) fields to two full years. In effect, using a host of legal manoeuvres towards an ultimate green card, such students never really need to return home.
In January 2015, Canada relaxed its rules to immigrate even more permanent residents under its popular, competency-based, points system. Even Germany, which is saturated with refugees now, is quietly extending an olive branch to import even more skilled workers through programs such as free tuition for post-graduate education.
Human capital
How much do the Indian diaspora cost India? Not much, because, largely living abroad, they do not consume the country’s public services or drain its natural resources. It is true that the Indian government spends a lot of money educating migrants before they leave for greener shores, but there are ways to recover this investment.
For example, as part of a new NRI policy, the government must immediately work with rich countries to ask that they kick back a portion of the income tax revenues they collect from the Indian diaspora.
This is fair because these countries did not invest anything in creating this talent but benefit immediately when the im-migrant pays taxes abroad. If negotiations fail, India should approach the WTO to argue that developing countries must be officially compensated for the human capital they export.
India should show that it is serious about managing its relationship with the NRIs by opening a separate Minister-of-State level department for NRI administration - similar to the Veterans’ Administration in the US. This department would act as the NRI voice across various Indian government agencies and promote engagement with NRIs to help India’s larger cause.
The government should launch various win-win schemes to make it more attractive for its diaspora to step up participation in India’s development. India should formalise a rotation program wherein top NRI scientists, engineers, doctors, managers and professionals serve Indian public sector organizations for a brief period, lending their expertise. This kind of lateral induction of senior staff can do wonders to both host and contributing personnel as was evidenced by the tenure of Dr. Rajan at the RBI. Many NRIs would be willing to serve for no compensation if living expenses, travel and accommodations are paid for.
In the country’s interest
India should aggressively court NRIs to invest in India — especially for projects which focus on rural development — by offering attractive interest rates on deposits. A new Foreign Currency Non Resident (FCNR) programme where each NRI can invest up to, say $100,000 per person, at 10-year rates close to the Indian domestic market (say 6.0 per cent), will bring in a flood of much needed cash and stabilise the rupee. Interest rates in most western countries are not much higher than zero. If just 25 per cent of the diaspora population in-vests the maximum amount, this could bring in $400 billion in new remittances to India.
As long as the interest differential is high, the likelihood that NRIs will withdraw these funds is low, so banks could essentially use new deposits to pay current interest obligations, much like the US Treasury does. While the theoretical expense of interest payouts is higher, it is no higher than borrowing from global banks with onerous lending terms.
Social media tools have made it easy and inexpensive for diaspora Indians to stay in touch with family and friends back home, and their link to India has never been stronger. It is time that the Indian government leveraged this strong bond for the greater good of the nation.
Let’s talk a bit about Indians for whom biscuits and chocolates have become cookies and candies – people who always carry a mineral-water bottle and a unique accent, wherever they go! Yes! We are talking about NRIs – a term which is more recognized among Indian citizens than RBI.
There have been many discussions on the subject of NRIs, and they have been frequently criticized by wannabe desh-bhakts (patriots) on social media. In this article, we are going to analyse some statistical facts and figures about NRIs.
We start with statistics regarding the population of NRIs and their distribution all around the globe. In total, there are 29.22 million Indians staying outside India which is more than the total population of many countries around the world.
Now, let’s see how this NRI population is distributed. The list excludes the members of neighboring countries like Paki-stan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, and Bhutan.
USA is on the list – but it is an honorable mention with an ethnic Indian population of around 1%. The biggest surprise lies in the Caribbean Region.
There were expectations that Kenya, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe would reveal a significant Indian population out there, but none of them meet the 1?r. As for Europe, no other countries apart from the UK (2.3%) and The Republic Of Ireland (1.9%) are reported to have an Indian population of 1%.
For the longest time, NRIs have been a symbol of ‘brain drain’. NRIs study in India and work outside. They are educated in India, but serve the foreign land. The question we need to ask here is whether studying in the Indian education system leads to learning, on a global scale?
It is extremely necessary to go out and expose yourself to the world. One cannot put enough emphasis on how important it is to explore, know, learn, observe and understand how the world functions. Let’s remember a few great legends who were and are at times, NRIs – for instance, Kalpana Chawla and even Gandhi! Yes, our own bapu was once an NRI. What’s more?
There are a few more honorable mentions. The founder and creator of Hotmail is Sabeer Bhatia, an Indian. The co-founder of Sun Microsystems is an Indian – Vinod Khosla. The creator of the Pentium chip is also an Indian – Vinod Dham. Narinder Singh Kapany, a Punjab-born genius, is known for his contribution to the field of fibre optics. Har Gobind Khorana, an Indo-American biochemist born in Raipur, Punjab, bagged the Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine in 1968, for cracking the genetic code along with Robert Holley and Marshall Nirenberg.
An Indo-Canadian of the Sikh community, Harjit Sajjan, also got appointed as the defence minister of Canada in 2015. The sheer number of NRIs notwithstanding, these are some of the NRIs who have made India proud.
Not only are they doing exceptionally good in their respective fields, they are also supporting the Indian economy at the same time. Despite a steep drop in the global remittances to India in 2016, India has received $65.5 billion in the past year. A report by wealth consultancy Wealth Insight stated that the number of NRIs with millionaire status last year was 2.36 lakh, with an average wealth of over $3.83 million.
The total NRI population was pegged at around 28 million. The US accounted for the largest proportion of NRI millionaires with a total of 133,564 or 56.5% share, followed by the UK with a 0.7% share. Other countries with a significant number of NRI millionaires include the UAE, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia and Japan. The total wealth of NRI millionaires was estimated at some $915 billion in 2015 and is expected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2019. Remittances from NRIs are often used for investments in stocks, term deposits, land and property.
The NRIs often return with lots of knowledge, potential and passion to drive change, which they often exhibit through entrepreneurial and charitable activities. The NRIs around the world, thus, have made contributions not only to the development of their country of residence, but also to the development of India.
An analysis of these facts and figures shows that this is not ‘brain drain’ – rather it’s a significant ‘brain gain’. NRIs also take their Indian roots along with them, wherever they go, thereby, contributing to the dispersal and popularization of Indian cul-tures and traditions all around the world. Most importantly, they often earn recognition and respect for India and its citizens at the global scene.
Every time an NRI achieves something, it is a plus point for India too! They are really helping India become more global. Let’s break the ‘brain drain’ stereotype and feel proud of the ‘global Indians’!
Big names of South India cinema namely MGR, NTR, Rajnikant, Kamal Has-san, Chiranjivee, Mohan Babu are household names with global Indian community. The rise of Allu Arjun is likely to script similar success story. Allu rose up the ladder since his debut in Tollywood and has never looked back. Allu Arjun soon began riding the wave of success and landed blockbuster films such as ‘Arya’, ‘Bunny’, ‘Happy’, ‘Arya 2’, ‘Race Gurram’, ‘S/O Satyamurthy’, ‘Sarrainodu’, ‘DJ’ and many others. On the surface, his road to superstardom has been enviably easy marking to be the next superstar in the industry. He burns up the screen with his energy that spikes out in all direction, sweeping you up with its force even in casual encounter.
He is the only South Indian actor whose movies have reached the Rs 100 crore club thrice. His Hindi dubbed movies have collectively surpassed 530 million views on YouTube and have a huge crossover appeal across India especially in Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and among other states. Today, his fan following is increasing by every minute and so is the number of filmmakers wanting to sign him. What’s more he has hit a beautiful equation in his personal life as well. Riding the crest of his huge fans followers of 12.7 million in Facebook alone making him the highest among any South Indian actor and many Bollywood stars. Opinion Express is experimenting with a shift from political to entertainment cover story.
Secondly we are reporting in-depth assessment of Modi wave in the country: How has the Republic fared with Prime Minister Narendra Modi steering the country towards the general election of 2019? It has been a mixed record, with the willingness to take decisions trumped by ideological blinkers and a propensity to think of the virtues of Ram Rajya. The Sangh Parivar leadership has not quite reconciled itself regarding how far to take the concept of Hindutva in ruling a heterogeneous and multi-ethnic country. Two major decisions merit attention — the sudden move for demonetisation of a huge chunk of our currency and the hasty introduction of the Goods and Services Tax. The first decision was Mr Modi’s own prescription for the evils of black money and it has badly misfired, slowing down the economy, while the GST, an essential measure that earlier Congress governments had failed to bring in, was imposed somewhat post-haste. The demonetisation scheme was essentially Mr Modi’s idea, and although he talked it up as a kind of poor man’s revenge against the rich, the poor suffered the most. There has been no suggestion of apology on Mr Modi’s behalf on slowing down the economy and its numerous other consequences.
In the field of foreign policy, Mr Modi has built on the country’s record, considerably enhancing ties with Israel and becoming the first Indian PM to unreservedly welcome Israel into the hall of nations. Mr Modi has decided that India’s defence and geopolitical links with the Jewish state are important enough to be concentrated and the risks minimal as the Sunni monarchies are also reaching out to it. Does Mr Modi have a roadmap beyond the victory post-2019? Judging by his exertions in Davos and elsewhere, he is rustling up plans for a major internal manufacturing spree on the basis of abundant foreign investment. But circumstances have to be propitious for such investment because men with money and resources have options. The country will enter a new phase after the 2019 polls, and it will be an entirely new ballgame.
Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avhpNVKAhRc
WHAT WILL BE MAJOR FACTORS TO DECIDE INDIA’S NEXT PRIME MINISTER
Can you make a difference between business and politics?” The answer is simple: “In politics, there is no value for being number two.”
There are no prizes for coming second in an election. All you get is five years to introspect what you did wrong. Being out of power can be really depressing, especially once you have tasted it. Elections, thus, are the most innovative form of business, and politicians are the smartest entrepreneurs. The Prime Minister’s post is the ultimate trophy in this winner-takes-all contest. They have every incentive to try all sorts of innovations, tricks, and games to win and be number one.
There are nine factors – three sets of numbers, three strategies, and three tactics – that will determine India’s next Prime Minister.
The Numbers 330-230-130:
This is what the BJP and Congress win together in the 543-seat Lok Sabha, as you can see in the table (in the video), which shows the story of elections since 1991. The rest go to regional parties, who may or may not be allied with either of the two national parties. Thus, the most important contests are the ones where the BJP and Congress fight directly against each other. Each seat outcome results in a relative difference of two between them.
For Narendra Modi to continue as India’s PM, he would like to ensure that BJP’s 282 tally should not fall be-low 230, which means Congress’ tally should be less than 100. For Rahul Gandhi to make an attempt to become PM, he will need to at least ensure that Congress’ 44 seats go up to more than 130, which means BJP’s seats should be less than 200. So, BJP + Congress is 330, BJP’s target is 230+, and Congress’ target is 130+.
The number game: 10 crore and 67 crore:
Ten crore is the number of unregistered voters in India. Of these, 7.5 crore are in the 18-24 age bracket, while the other 2.5 crore are older voters who have not registered for a variety of rea-sons. As you can see in the graphic, the 7.5 crore unregistered youth, form half of all 18-24 year olds in India.
These 10 crore missing voters are part of the 33 crore Indians who do not vote. Another 34 crore are undecided, or not likely to support any one of the mainstream parties. Together, the number is 67 crore – two-thirds of the eligible voters in India. And they are up for grabs. This is four times the BJP’s core support base, and eight times the core Congress support.
128:
The total number of seats in the two large states with four strong parties – Uttar Pradesh with 80, and Maharashtra with 48 seats. BJP won a total of 94 seats and its allies won another 20, making a total of 114 of 128 seats. With BJP as the party to beat, the number of candidates against the BJP will determine its success in the next election. The more the candidates from the main parties, the better will be its chances. So, the key to the next election lies in the index of opposition unity in these 128 seats.
The Strategies Wave Creation:
A wave election, like 2014, is needed to ensure a national mandate. Else, elections tend to be an aggregation of state elections, which tend to lead to fractured mandates. There have only been three wave elections in the past 40 years – 1977 (after the Emergency, which brought the Janata party to power), 1984 (after Indira Gandhi’s assassination, when Rajiv Gandhi’s Congress swept the nation), and 2014 (where Narendra Modi’s BJP became the first party in 30 years to win a majority). Parties like waves – it unites voters to create a winning majority. Will the next election be a national wave or states summation?
Big Idea Selling:
To create a wave, the election has to be about a couple of big ideas. No one really bothers with manifestos anymore. Which party will have the big ideas in this election? Congress record in government in the 60 years starting in 1947? BJP’s track record in delivering ‘acche din’ since 2014? Corruption? Governance? Narendra Modi himself?
(S)electorate Targeting:
To sell its big idea, a party only targets a selected set of voters – those who they think will support them. So, it is not about the Electorate, but about the electorate. This is the minimal mix of smaller groups that is needed for a party to craft a win in a first-past-the post system, where the party getting the highest number of votes wins. BJP’s electorate was the middle class for a long time, but it now seems to be transitioning its focus to the poor.
The Tactics Polarisation Game:
Elections are about divide and rule. Like in a marketplace, politicians and their parties like to have voters see sharp differentiation, to ensure they turn up to vote. Hence, the need for polarisation. Caste, community, class – all can divide the electorate and therefore unite the selectorate. In the absence of optimism, a party will use anger, fear, high passion to maximise voter turnout in its support base.
Ground Game:
India has 10 lakh polling booths, each with about 1,000 voters, which comes to about 250 families. In every election, what matters besides the top down media campaign is the ground game, especially closer to the voting day. Using data and analytics to identify supporters, and then getting them out to vote on election day will be instrumental in determining the eventual winner. To make this happen, parties need the sales army – the booth workers who can register new voters, persuade the supporters and undecideds, and then turn them out to vote.
Digital Game:
The one big change from 2014 is the amazing growth of smartphones and data connectivity across India. As a result, Facebook and WhatsApp have become the primary methods for sharing content and opinions. You see the explosion of creative content every time a big news story breaks. More than half of all voters, and at least one person in every household in India, is now digitally connected via a smartphone. Digital India may take time, but India’s Digital Election is coming! So, these are the numbers, strategies and tactics that will decide who will be India’s next Prime Minister. What happens in the elections will determine our individual and collective future – now more than ever. India is a young nation. We have lost a lot of time over the past decades in pursuing policies that keep taking us away from the path to prosperity. This election offers yet another moment for change. Be aware of the games the politicians and their parties play, and vote wisely – for India’s First Prosperity Prime Minister.
Whoever may be the Prime Minister, here’s is what my opinion on the issue constitute:
Born to an Indian father who values western culture and way of life more than anything, he was brought up as any kid in the elite class would have been expected to be. Such was the extent of the elitism in the household that speaking in the vernacular was not entertained even on the dining table. The boy goes on to study at Harrow and later at Cambridge. On returning to India, inspired by a certain MK Gandhi, he takes up a lead in the nationalist movement of the time. His involvement in the movement and his image availed the whole country to see him as the second-in-command of the struggle against the Raj. So much so that, his chief contender Patel once said, ‘The masses, they come for him.’ I talk about a person named Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. The Congress that Nehru inherited was a mixed bag of liberals, conservatives, and radicals. But when he embarked on building a nation on the foundations of rational liberalism and secularism, no one dared oppose him. Because they knew that their seats, their posts, and positions in the new democratic India were because people voted for Nehru, not for the individual MPs. If Nehru resigned, their own positions were at stake. It used to be called Nehruvian consensus. Imagine. A person who grew as an elite, who spoke and wrote in English so proficiently (more than in vernacular), who preached and propagated those versions of Secularism and Socialism that were alien to Indians, he, was more popular in the Indian rural heartland than any conservative of that time.
Why Not Congress-mukth?
There is an argument I hear every now and then that the current BJP Government has the mandate of citizens and hence it should not be a cause of concern for us because ‘democracy is being followed.’ I would with due respect disagree. Democracy is not raw majoritarianism. When we say, ‘Democracy is government by, for and of the people,’ it means it is by, for, and of all the people. Not by, for, and of just a majority. Let’s say, hypothetically, 51% of people vote to support the banishment of the remaining 49% of the citizens of the country, is it sensible to implement it?
In all this binary game of ‘yes-no’s, we are forgetting the basic intent of democracy. Democracy is a practicable framework of governance that will ensure human rights and dignity to all the citizens, not a tool to assert majoritarianism. That is why there is a concept called Participatory Democracy, wherein citizens, from time to time, check the government and assist the government in catering best to their needs. And how is this done? Four major ways: Opposition in the legislature, Judiciary, Media, and protest. And each of these four is essential. You cannot say that 3 of them are working fine in checking the government; hence the fourth one need not work. My attention in the current essay will be on showing the importance of Opposition in Parliament.
Let’s take the example of one of the latest bills that the Lok Sabha passed, the Finance Bill. The Finance Bill made provisions for private companies to make as much donation to political parties as they wish, without disclosing the name of the political party they are donating too. If read carefully, it is easy to infer that it is cronyism. Which of the above four checked the passage of this law? Media was busy with Yogiji’s rule in UP (which was also important to cover). Social media even less, with BJP trolls trolling anyone who so much as says a thing against BJP and government. Judiciary couldn’t have acted in such short a time span. And even if it could, the amendment had been made and it had become a law. So, unless, there is a violation of the ‘Basic Structure of the Constitution’, it cannot overturn the amendment. And, the Opposition? It was so weak that neither the government nor the citizens took it any seriously. A majority of the amendments were added one day before the final vote after all the discussion had happened and it was passed through the brute force of majority. Could things have been better had opposition been stronger (not in terms of the number of seats but the support it gets from the citizens)? The fact that the same opposition (which had farmers’ support) were able to stall the amendment to Land Acquisition Act 2014 shows it is possible.
Therefore, it is important that the citizens of the country rely also on the opposition for their own good. But for that, it is important that the opposition shows itself to be competent and strong to the citizens. The point I make is, a strong opposition is essential to a healthy democracy. And the closest to opposition in India today is Congress. And the set of leaders who are closest to making that opposition strong can be Rahul Gandhi, Kapil Sibal and Shashi Tharoor.
Still Sibal or Tharoor?
The example of Nehru that I gave in the beginning of the essay was to address the larger point that no seemingly elite politician is capable of reaching the masses of the rural heartland of the country. It, however, doesn’t address the barriers that lie between Sibal or Tharoor and the UPA Candidature for Prime Ministership in 2019. Let me address these as answers to potential questions that might arise about his candidature.
What about Rahul Gandhi?
I know that Sonia Gandhi is not that naive a person to allow for someone other than Rahul or a puppet to be the PM. But this is politics and, as the cliched statement goes, ‘Anything can happen in Politics.’ Trust me. I am not going to go into counterfactuals. Let’s look at Congress realistically. The narrative in Congress so far has been, ‘We get votes because people vote for the descendants of Nehru and Indira.’ In essence, the brand of Congress was what was giving MPs votes. But has it been working? Did it work in Bihar 2011? In UP 2012? In India in 2014? In UP 2017? Don’t accuse me of being selective. Of course, I didn’t mention Bihar 2016 because it was Nitish-Laloo’s win rather than the brand of Congress’. In the above-mentioned elections, Rahul Gandhi was the star campaigner. And clearly, it didn’t work in party’s favor. There is a high possibility of change in the leadership. A political party can never be owned by a person. It is owned by people. Politics change according to what people want. Status quo in Congress is highly unlikely. Whether I am right or wrong, time will tell.
What does Congress has to offer to the country anyway?
If an alternative to Modi is the only thing Congress has to offer, I have no doubt that it’ll not work. I don’t say Congress party doesn’t have an ideology. Its ideology is of Liberalism, Secularism, and Socialism. But these are textbook concepts. Even a middle-class Indian, leave alone rural peasant, would not understand these. You need to have a narrative. The world sustains on stories. Stories of the holocaust, stories of China stealing our jobs, stories of Mexicans polluting our country, stories of EU eating our wealth etc. Stories work. Which is why good politicians are effective storytellers.
Congress too had a story to tell. A story of ‘New Possibilities’ (1950s), then a story of ‘Jai Jawan, Jai Kissan’ (Sastri), then a story of ‘Garibi Hatao’ (1971), then a story of ‘Vote for Government that works’ (1980), a story of ‘Sikhs are our enemies’ (1984), a story of ‘Rama Rajya’ (1991). They worked. Now, the dominant Congress story is ‘BJP is anti Minority’. This story has no robustness. It is not a philosophy, rather a counter-argument. So, yes, the Congress has to literally go back to its drawing board. And start making a story that will convey the textbook concepts that it stands for, a story that is robust in itself.
When Tharoor said that Rahul Gandhi might not have a conviction but he wants people to tell him what they want to be done, I found myself in amazement. Surely, Tharoor knows better than that in politics.
What if Sibal or Tharoor becomes Manmohan Singh II?
Well, everything is contingent on that not happening. If they remains faithful to the family, like they does now, I take my proposition back. But I am sure that if they were to become a Prime Minister, both would assert themself well enough to be the Prime Minister and not a Principal Secretary of 10, Janpath Road. Both has seen and been involved in more politics than Manmohan Singh.
So, Modi-mukth Bharat?
I am a full-time Capitalist and a part-time Conservative. And I am a vegetarian too. So, I don’t have qualms with the current regime personally. Yet, I care about the personal liberties of everyone to be concerned about the developments in the country today. The discourse has become more and more polarized (because of lack of stories from one of the sides) and the authority of the government is being asserted at an alarming magnitude. I don’t want a Modi-mukht Bharat. I rather prefer a Bharat where the government doesn’t set precedents that might increase the authoritarianism. For which we need a counternarrative (not counter-argument, we already have one). Sibal or Tharoor’s ascent is not going to be easy. It is difficult. But what that is good is easy? In the end, my nation is bigger than any of these politicians. Yet, my nation is the people in it, not a landmass with boundary.
Drawing battlelines for 2019: Upcoming Lok Sabha election will define future of Indian politics Though the 2019 Lok Sabha election is more than two years away, every political calculation now revolves around it.
Make no mistake: 2019 represents an existential moment for several parties. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi leads the BJP to victory in 2019, it could spell the end of the dynastic Congress. Rahul Gandhi will be 54 in 2024. He would by then have spent 20 unsuccessful years in politics. Sonia Gandhi will be 77 and no longer a key factor in Indian politics. Priyanka Gandhi, 53, would remain the Congress’ wild card. But by 2024 playing it may be too little, too late. Other parties in the Opposition recognise the danger of a second successive victory for Modi. It explains the near-hysteria the Prime Minister’s demonetization scheme has caused. Only Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik among Opposition leaders have grasped the full political ramifications of Modi’s war on black money. They know that the economic benefits — and these could be considerable — are dwarfed by the political implications.
In a country where poverty in varying degrees afflicts nearly half-abillion people, the emotional appeal of punishing bla*ck money hoarders and tax-evading millionaires has irresistible moral appeal.
Nitish Kumar, for example, has used morality in governance to burnish his political career. He has legislated against benami properties in Bihar and banned liquor. The JD(U) pointedly broke ranks with the rest of the Opposition over demonetization. Nitish is even talking to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley about a joint initiative to forge a digital-pay economy.
None of this suggests that Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is about to return to the NDA fold. As if to squelch growing murmurs of Nitish’s bromance with Modi, the Bihar chief minister declared: “The Central government’s actions are creating fear among minorities. The Centre is deliberately weakening federal power of the states. Some people talk about ghar wapsi and cow protection and are spreading hatred. But we are working to achieve our goals and will continue to do it in Bihar.”
Despite the rhetoric, Nitish has two problems. First, the erratic behaviour of his coalition partner Lalu Prasad Yadav and his family. The return of jungle Raj in Bihar has damaged Nitish’s reputation for good governance built methodically over two decades. Second, Nitish has sensed the national mood on demonetization. Aligning with those who oppose action against black money carries a huge political risk.
Unlike Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and Arvind Kejriwal who react emotionally to events, Nitish has a cold, clinical approach to power. But, he too knows that a victory for Modi in 2019 will end any realistic chance he has of being Prime Minister in a future national mahagathbandhan. Modi, of course, has problems of his own in the run-up to 2019. He has to make demonetization work on the ground. Moral victories can vanish if the poor continue to suffer due to a continued shortage of cash.
Modi also has to cross the hurdle of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in 2017. Many realignments among the Opposition will take place after UP. The importance Modi attaches to the state is highlighted by the number of rallies he is holding there months in advance of the poll.
Modi also has to recalibrate ties with his allies. The Shiv Sena is a prickly customer, though somewhat sobered by the BJP’s recent victories in local elections in Maharashtra. The forthcoming BMC poll will decide how the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance holds up in 2019. Meanwhile, other NDA allies like SAD in Punjab, LJP in Bihar and TDP in Andhra Pradesh have weakened electorally since their wins in 2014. They will need to be whipped into shape. Modi and his opponents both know that the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha election will define the contours of Indian politics for a generation.
His ‘fixing’ skills and excellent rapport across party line ensures Amar Singh never goes out of currency
Hit me, kick me, abuse me but always keep my name on the board –Winston Churchill.
One Indian politician that emulated Churchill’s golden words is Amar Singh. The political build up for general elections 2019 has started picking up and so are the stocks of Amar Singh. The massive Modi wave of 2014 has evaporated and BJP-RSS have to contest the elections on the facts and performance of the last five years. Unfortunately the BJP is facing anti incumbency in states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Gujrat and Maharashtra. The emotional issues of Ram Temple, uniform civil code, to abolish article 370 in J&K has not moved an inch during the Modi’s era. So the apex policy makers in BJP and RSS must come up with innovative and radical ideas to attract the voters in favour of them yet again in 2019.
*President rule in J&K is an attempt to consolidate BJP national vote bank despite BJP and Mehbooba enjoys cordial relationship even now.
*To bring petrol and diesel under GST in the two months before the announcement of elections dates, it will offer a relief of Rs 10 per litre.
* Push the anti corruption agenda by forcing conviction in the ongoing prominent cases, it will give perception that Modi government is different than the previous governments.
*Prime Minister’s performance is excellent but his cabinet colleagues are a miserable failure with exception of Nitin Gadkari. PM must include special talent namely Subramanium Swamy and Varun Gandhi to boost freshness in approach even if the time is limited.
* Two states namely Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra are likely to decide the outcome of the next general elections so to break opposition unity index in both the states will be the key for securing success. To bring back Shiv Sena in NDA and breaking up SP-BSP alliance will secure comfortable victories. And to break SP-BSP alliance and micro operation within SP is assigned to Amar Singh.
So Amar Singh is relevant again in 2019 for the ruling NDA and BJP to swing the fortune in their favour. Born in a Rajput family in Aligarh, politics was always his principle passion. Young Amar Singh had always great memory and brilliant oratory that attracted major political people cutting across party line. Till recently he was one of the tallest leaders in the Samajwadi Party. He was the general secretary of the Samajwadi Party and was a member of the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Indian parliament. On 6 January 2010, he resigned from all the posts of Samajwadi Party and was later expelled from the party by its chief, Mulayam Singh Yadav on 2 February 2010. He took retirement from politics citing poor health. In his statement he mentioned, “I want to give more time to my wife and my family. However in 2016, he rejoined Samajwadi Party and was elected to Rajya Sabha even after facing a stiff opposition from a section of the party including the then Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh Akhilesh Yadav. He was also reinstated as one of the general secretaries of the party in October 2016. But the Yadav family feud forced Amar Singh to side with his mentor Mulayam Singh Yadav that led to differences with then CM of Uttar Pradesh Akhilesh Yadav and his uncle Ram Gopal Yadav. Ultimately it led to expulsion of Amar Singh from the party and he became unattached member in the Rajya Sabha.
However, it was in July 2008 that Singh rose to political prominence. Singh’s prominence in Delhi surged when the UPA government was reduced to a minority after the Communist Party of India withdrew their support over the proposed Nuclear Accord with the United States. His Samajwadi Party pledged support to the UPA government with the support of its 39 members. Amar Singh closeness with then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and strategic grip over his party propelled him to the centre stage of the national polity. In the process, he attracted powerful friends and even more powerful enemies. The powerful lobbies worked against the sudden rise of Amar Singh and on 6 January 2010, he was forced to resign as general secretary of the party as well as from its parliamentary board and as its spokesperson. He also used his blog to speak about his abrupt departure from the Samajwadi Party. On 21 December 2010, Singh launched his official website and blog, supposedly after being encouraged by Hindi film maga star Amitabh Bachchan, whom he was close to at the time.
As the destiny has it, Then Chief Minister of UP Late Vir Bahadur Singh introduced Amar Singh with Mulayam Singh Yadav with an agenda to target VP Singh for neutralizing growing threat for Rajiv Gandhi from VP Singh. This meeting was the turning point in Amar Singh’s political career that sparked the rise of Amar Singh. Singh’s first stint in politics happened in 1985 when he was assigned to look after UP chief minister Vir Bahadur Singh while he was in the city for a programme organised by the Thakur community of Kolkata. Impressed with Singh, the chief minister invited him to Lucknow. Quick to recognise the potential of the invitation, Singh shifted to Lucknow. Mulayam Singh Yadav, who was then an outsider to Delhi’s power circles had met Singh at Vir Bahadur Singh’s residence and saw the merit of a man whose reach ranged from politicians and film sets to corporate houses. This marked the beginning of his friendship with Netaji, who was then a staunch socialist, worked at the grass root level and followed the instructions of veteran socialist leader and thinker Madhu Limaye and Ram Manohar Lohia. However Amar Singh ventured closely with Congress party to explore his political options under Madhav Rao Scindia patronage. Incidentally Amar Singh was in the board of directors of Hindustan Times, newspaper owned by Birla’s, traditional Congress supporters. He almost fought parliamentary elections in 1991 on congress ticket but Arjun Singh and Digvijay Singh opposed his nomination that led to Amar Singh’s disillusionment with the congress party. Many years later, Mulayam Singh Yadav happily welcomed Singh on board in 1996. The alliance was mutually beneficial and gave the businessman political heft. Amar Singh’s rendezvous with industrialists and Bollywood gained prominence as he bailed them out of crisis, either by offering them financial aid or liaising for them at Lutyens’ Delhi. He wielded influence and power and had contacts with both rustic politicians and elite socialites. Given the responsibility of being SP’s spokesperson in Delhi, Singh soon became the face of the party in the national capital and also rose to the position of No. 2 in SP, edging out veterans like Beni Prasad Verma, Raj Babbar and Mohammed Azam Khan, among others. “Most of the SP leaders, including Ram Gopal Yadav, Mohammed Azam Khan and Shivpal Yadav may not be very pleased with the decision of Mulayam Singh. Typical of a regional party which is headed by a patriarch, the entire politics of the organization revolves around the patriarch. Amar Singh became the eyes and ears of Mulayam Singh Yadav and this made a lot of leaders jealous of him,” the SP leader said. Later in 1996 when H.D. Deve Gowda was prime minister and Yadav, a key supporter of Gowda, was defence minister in the Union cabinet, Amar Singh formally joined SP in the same year to become one of the most influential lead in Delhi. Singh has remained the face of SP in Delhi’s power circles ever since, and has always been identified as a close confidant of Yadav, who later became Uttar Pradesh chief minister. SP was a traditional party till 1996, the basic organizational network of SP was in rural and semi urban areas, but after Amar Singh joined in 1996, he brought glamour, political connections, Bollywood, network with big industrial houses with him to the party. He managed to change the basic image of the party.
Yet again in 2016, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s decision to nominate Singh as one of the seven candidates for the Rajya Sabha comes as a political resurrection of the 60-year-old master strategist of the SP, ahead of the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. A shrewd politician and a Bollywood socialite, Singh’s journey from the lanes of Burrabazzar in North Kolkata to the power corridors of Delhi and gradual exit from the scene is unmatched. “There is one quality of Mulayam Singh Yadav which cannot be matched by any other politician. If a person has been with Mulayam Singh Yadav during his good and bad times, the SP chief doesn’t forget it. He doesn’t care if the public perception of the person is good or bad, but he will return the favour if he thinks the person has served him well. And Amar Singh is one such person who continues to remain very close to Mulayam Singh Yadav,” the SP leader quoted above said.
It will not be prudent to say that we are not friends. It will not be proper to say we are enemies,” Singh was quoted in a report by News 18 dated 4 July 2008, a statement reflective of Singh’s tongue-in-cheek way of talking. Singh’s 31-year-old political career has seen controversies and allegations of many hues. Singh has time and again grabbed headlines over several charges -- whether it is the July 2008 cash-forvotes scam where a chargesheet was filed against him for allegedly bribing three Bharatiya Janata Party Lok Sabha MPs to vote for the UPA government which was facing a floor test in the parliament; the 2011 phone tapping controversy where taped phone conversations revealed Singh allegedly fixing deals with politicians, businessmen, bureaucrats and Bollywood celebrities; or the 2011 ‘fix-a-judge’ controversy where again a CD allegedly showed Singh and Mulayam Singh Yadav in conversation with former law minister Shanti Bhushan suggesting that a judge could be bribed for Rs.4 crore for a desired court verdict. In spite of these charges he was given a clean chit by Speaker Mr. Somnath Chatterjee and from lower court to Supreme Court in “Cash for Vote” scam for total absence of any tangible evidence against him. In telephone tapping case Attorney General of India Mr. Ghulam Vahanvati accepted in Supreme Court that said controversial tapes were forged and doctored and therefore Chief Justice Sabarwal gave a stay instructing the media to not use these doctored tapes.
Amar Singh’s growing dominance in the domestic power corridors pushed him to international arena. It is Amar Singh’s persuasive skills that brought US President Bill Clinton to India on a private visit to Lucknow city that boosted the stock of Samajwadi Party in the international arena. In reference to the book Clinton Cash, the New York Post questioned Singh’s $5 million contribution to the Clinton Foundation, writing “Singh’s donation was treated with suspicion and amusement in India as the US Congress debated the landmark India-US civilian nuclear deal. Friends and politicians who have worked closely with Singh call him a hardworking and resourceful person who has always had a political bent of mind. SP leader and Rajya Sabha member Kiranmoy Nanda who has known Singh since the time Singh was part of the Youth Congress in Kolkata, says that “Singh is and has always been a political person.” Amar Singh is a very resourceful man and by that I not just mean monetarily, which obviously stands true. But even his personal relationship with the media namely Shobhna Bharatia of Hindustan Times, Subhash Chandra of Zee Media, Rajat Sharma of India Tv etc which he handles so well, as well as his political understanding with leaders cutting across party lines - all have helped Singh reach where he is today,” he says.
However, Singh’s political career saw a downward spiral after his expulsion from the SP following fallout with Yadav in 2010.He floated his own political party, the Rashtriya Lok Manch, in 2011, and unsuccessfully fielded a number of candidates in the 2012 assembly polls in the state. He tried to revive his career again in 2014, ahead of parliamentary elections, when he and former Bollywood star Jaya Prada joined Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) but failed again as Singh lost the Lok Sabha poll from the Fatehpur Sikri seat. Amar Singh is a political obsessed man, looking to be politically relevant irrespective of win or loss. According to Amar Singh, “life without politics is unthinkable”. Even after the loss, he scored a point that Amar Singh is not politically untouchable.
In his long political career, Amar Singh has held many important positions starting from 1997-98 : Member, Committee on Papers Laid on the Table, 1998-99 and Oct. 2004 onwards Member, Consultative Committee for the Ministry of Finance, June 1998 – Feb. 2004 and Aug. 2004 – Aug. 2006 : Member, Committee on Finance, 1999–2001 : Member, Committee on Provision of Computers to Members of Rajya Sabha, 1999 : Member, Consultative Committee for the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas Member, Informal Consultative Committee for Northern Railway Zone, April 2001 – Dec.2002 : Member, Joint Parliamentary Committee on Stock Market Scam and matters relating thereto, March 2002 – Nov. 2002 : Member, Committee on Petitions, Nov. 2002 : Re-elected to Rajya Sabha, June 2003 – Aug. 2004 : Member, Committee of Privileges, Aug. 2004 – May 2009 and Aug.2009 onwards : Chairman, Parliamentary Standing Committee on Health and Family Welfare, Aug. 2004 onwards : Member, General Purposes Committee, Sept. 2006 onwards : Member, Business Advisory Committee, May 2008 – Nov. 2008 : Member, Committee on Public Undertakings, Nov. 2008 : Re-elected to Rajya Sabha, Jan. 2010 onwards : Member, Parliamentary Forum on Population and Public Health, 2016 : Re-elected to Rajya Sabha from Uttar Pradesh as a member of Samajwadi Party.
Amar Singh has held many important positions in the government namely Director, (i) Indian Airlines, (ii) State Bank of India and (iii) National Textiles Corporation; previously associated with Congress; was Secretary, District Congress Committee, Calcutta; was Member, (i) A.I.C.C. and (ii) United Front Steering Committee; Member, (i) Board of Governors of Kendriya Vidyalaya Sangathan, (ii) Telephone Advisory Committee, Telecom District Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh, 1998, (iii) Telephone Advisory Committee, Telecom District Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, 1999 and (iv) Hindi Salahkar Samiti of the Department of Defence Production and Supplies and Defence Research and Development Organisation; All India General Secretary, Samajwadi Party; National Spokesperson, Samajwadi Party
Road Ahead
In an era dominated by RSS ideology, Amar Singh is no outsider in the power corridors based in Nagpur. According to him, his association with RSS dates back to three decades. Then PM Chandrashekhar with Amar Singh helped Nanaji Deshmukh to establish Ashram in Chitrakoot. Amar Singh was personally close to former RSS Chief Rajju Bhaiyya and he was regular visitor to Allahabad during Rajju Bhaiyya tenure leading to his active association with prominent RSS functionaries that are in control of the organization today. According to Amar Singh, RSS is a nationalist organization with extremely high moral value and is dedicated to building character of the native Indians vital to flare nationalist value in every citizen. Recently, Amar Singh is spotted in many RSS functions to consolidate the old relationship. This strategic relationship is taking him closer to RSS promoted political entity BJP. In an era of Modi and Shah, Amar Singh integration in the party is a mere formality.
The next general election in 2019 will throw a great challenge to Modi Shah Partnership. The 2014 wave is missing but BJP organization is much more muscular and the resources available with the party are better than the previous elections. Fortunately the brand Modi remains intact to be marked as the face of next elections. But BJP is facing a threat from the combined opposition to target BJP state wise. Today BJP is challenged by a probable alliance between SP & BSP in UP. The sheer articulation of the vote bank puts BJP strategy on the edge. So BJP has opted to co-operate its next move taking the services of UP veteran Amar Singh because nobody knows DNA of SP and BSP better than Amar Singh in the current political scene. Amar Singh insight knowledge of Samajwadi Party will be offered to BJP Chief strategic Amit Shah to break the party’s core strength while contesting the next Lok Sabha elections.
Further the Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi is struggling to push the development agenda that is vital to the success of terminally sick UP, struggling between the politics of Mandal and Kamandal. Amar Singh through his vast network of industrialist friends is likely to play a proactive role in the industrialization of the state. An indication to this effect came from the Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the recent UP Industrial summit wherein PM has applauded Amar Singh association with business people. Amar Singh is likely to be deputed by the Prime Minister to accelerate the industrialization process of the state, to assist Yogi Government in pushing the development agenda.
Solving Amar riddle
Decoding the three decade old complexed riddle Amar Katha is a great research work; our team has explored all unconventional methods to extract informal information to engage interest of the people reading Opinion Express. Prashant Tewari, Editor-in-Chief, speaks candidly to Amar Singh recently to explore his next political move and roadmap ahead.
Q Why Amar Singh is controversial name in Indian politics? Is it deliberately designed strategy to be relevant or you love camera and limelight?
Q Your parliamentary track record is phenomenal, the issue raised by you have national impact namely on the farmer, agriculture, defence and industries etc. There are few MP’s who understand synergy of politics and business better than you. Do you think this is the reason why Industry loves you?
Q You have matured in a seasoned political mode after three decades of national politics, surely you are a success story in parliament yet people call you “power broker”, “dalal” and “fixer”, why?
Q How do you rate Narendra Modi four years of rule in Delhi? And how Yogi has performed in UP in the last one year?
Q You were the architect of Mahagatbandhan in 1996 when Devegowda was made the PM, what difference do you feel that prevails in India today when entire opposition is united against Narendra Modi?
Q You are a politically obsessed person going ahead, how do you see your role in the coming months specially when all important national elections are due in 2019 and 80 parliamentary seats of UP is likely to decide the next PM of the country?
The cover story dedicated to Mahinda Rajapaksa will surprise many in India but we have done it to inspire next-generation leadership of South Asia for standing firm on the critical decision that can alter the course of history for any nation. To describe Sri Lanka as Sri Rajapaksa may be just apt for the leader who changed the destiny of the island country. After becoming President of Sri Lanka, Rajapaksa reshuffled the cabinet and took the portfolios of Defence and Finance in the new cabinet, which was sworn in on 23 November 2005. Immediately following his election in 2005, Rajapaksa extended the term of the Commander of the Sri Lanka Army Sarath Fonseka, less than a month before he was scheduled to retire. Over the next three and a half years Fonseka and Rajapaksa’s brother and Defense Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa led the country’s armed forces in their battle against the LTTE, ultimately defeating the Tigers and killing their leader Velupillai Prabhakaran. It was the most grueling battle that the world has witnessed in recent times and it made Mahinda Rajapaksa a national hero and international leader of repute.
There are few international leaders in the contemporary global polity that have successfully changed the war-torn country into a vibrant progressive democracy in their lifetime. The charismatic leader accelerated the pace of development of the island country by pushing various infrastructure projects that transformed the growth rate and GDP of the country from 2009 onwards. The Sri Lanka government declared total victory on 18 May 2009. On 19 May 2009 President Mahinda Rajapaksa delivered a victory address to the Parliament and declared that Sri Lanka is liberated from terrorism. It was a near miracle achieved by the Rajapaksa-led team and instantly he became a national hero and darling of the masses in Sri Lanka. Mahinda Rajapaksa launched “Mahinda Chinthana” for good governance for all. He drafted it to incorporate the desire of every section of society in the political mainstream so that nobody is left unattended. His concept is rooted in the soil, the governance that springs from the bottom of the pyramid. The concept has made him the darling of the masses in Sri Lanka and an iconic figure that transformed the country into one of the best-governed countries in South Asia.
In domestic politics, the Rafale deal has made everyone corrupt except Ambani. Both Congress and BJP are accusing each other of serious charges of corruption, but Anil Ambani is spared due to reasons known to them. In fact, Anil Ambani benefited during UPA1 & UPA2 governments in power, coal and telecom sectors courtesy of Chidambaram, SK Shinde and Ahmed Patel extensively. The same person was instrumental in Narendra Modi’s quest for power in 2014. Arun Jaitley, Piyush Goyal, Ex AG Mukul Rahatagi are reportedly with him. Rahul Gandhi is aimlessly targeting Anil Ambani without realizing that Chidambaram and Ahmed Patel can defuse the Rafale bomb anytime. In India, nobody can dare to touch Ambani, so both Congress and BJP are playing a friendly match. Unfortunately, India’s global position has been dented by the mudslinging of our immature neta’s. This [the selection of Reliance] is Dassault Aviation’s choice. This partnership has led to the creation of the Dassault Reliance Aerospace Ltd (DRAL) joint venture in February 2017; Anil Ambani has always denied any wrongdoing in the deal.
The Congress party has also accused Modi of compromising national security and destroying state-run defense manufacturing firms. It’s a reality that India is facing a severe shortage of fighter jets. It would need 42 squadrons in the scenario of a two-front war with China and Pakistan. But its squadron strength has depleted to 31 largely owing to aging Russian aircraft. But this realisation is not new. The BJP government in 2000 decided to buy new fighter jets. Its successor Congress continued the process and issued tenders in 2008 to buy 126 jets. Dassault was finalised as a supplier in 2012, and the state-run Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) was selected as a partner to produce 108 jets in India. The Indian government says it decided to buy the 36 jets in “fly-away” condition to quickly address the problem of the air force’s depleting strength. Both the national parties are interested in politics rather than addressing the issue with honest intent, the wild accusations have made the country a laughing stock in front of the world.
Prashant Tewari, Editor-in-Chief
Read More – October Edition of Opinion Express Magazine
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