Vaishnavism is one of the major forms of modern Hinduism, characterized by devotion to the god Vishnu and his incarnations. A devotee of Vishnu is called a Vaishnava. The Vaishnavite tradition is known for its loving devotion to an avatar of Vishnu, and as such was key to the spread of the Bhakti movement in South Asia in the 2nd millennium CE. For Vaishnava, absolute reality is manifested in Vishnu, who in turn is incarnated in Rama, Krishna, and other avatars. Through his avatars, Vishnu defends traditional righteousness in keeping with the moral law.
Vaishnavism is the worship and acceptance of Vishnu. The various sects of worshippers of Vishnu pray to him in different ways. For some, the goal of religious devotion to Vishnu is liberation from the cycle of birth and death. For others, it is health and prosperity in this life, good crops, success in business, or thriving children.
Vaishnavism comprises many sects and groups that differ in their interpretation of the relationship between the individual and God. It has four main categories of sub-schools: the medieval-era Vishishtadvaita school of Ramanuja, the Dvaita school of Madhvacharya, the Dvaitadvaita school of Nimbarkacharya, and the Pushtimarg of Vallabhacharya. The Srivaishnava sect, for example, emphasizes the doctrine of qualified non-dualism of Ramanuja, according to which, although the differentiated phenomenal world is illusory, it is nevertheless the medium through which devotees may gain access to God. Another group professes the dualism of the philosopher Madhva, the belief that God and the soul are separate entities and that the soul’s existence is dependent on God. The Pushtimarg sect maintains the pure non-dualism doctrine of the theologian Vallabhacharya, which does not declare the phenomenal world to be an illusion. The Gaudiya sect, founded by Chaitanya, teaches inconceivable duality and non-duality, the belief that the relation between God and the world is beyond the scope of human comprehension.
The first supreme omnipresent Jagad Guru Shrimad Vallabhacharya Mahaprabhuji established the Vaishnav religious system to grace upon the Universe, the Divine Grace, also known as Pushtimarg.
Sri Ramanujacharya Swamy, who graced this world in the 11th century, is the most important exponent of Sri Vaishnavism. His legacy is not just how many hearts he has touched, but how many ‘souls’ he has transformed.
The current proponent of Vallabhacharya and Ramanujacharya cults namely HH Dwarkeshlalji Maharaj and HH Chinna Jeeyar Swamy respectively are doing a fabulous job to promote global peace, tranquility, and universal well-being. The two Ambassadors of the Vaishnav cult have united the nation and international PIO population with their motherland.
The PLA -- the world's largest military force with more than 2 million active personnel -- is often described as "party-army" with professional characteristics". Mao's successor, Deng Xiaoping, made a concerted effort to put the PLA under the command of the state instead of the CCP -- an initiative carried forward by his successors, albeit with varying degrees of emphasis. The ascent of Xi Jinping in 2013 marked a new chapter as he sought to inject a renewed sense of party ideology into the PLA and modernise it.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced the most extensive set of reforms for the Peoples's Liberation Army (PLA) in its history. These reforms sought to consolidate President Xi Jinping's hold over the Army and bring about jointness in the forces by replacing military regions with theatre commands.
Though "world-class" is not explicitly defined, a rough survey of 'PLA Daily' suggests that world-class forces are roughly similar to major military powers, including the US, France, UK, and to a certain extent in some elements, India. This points towards the ability to deploy (including airlift) troops with agility and flexibility anywhere, including abroad, to protect Chinese interests.
These reforms align with China's expanding overseas footprint -- investments under the Belt and Road Initiative, the growing profile of the PLA Navy (PLAN) in anti-piracy operations and its first overseas military base in Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa. Besides, these reforms bring the PLA on a par with the major militaries in the world in terms of force posture and joint capabilities.
The restructuring of the PLA comes on the back of an exponential increase in China's defence budget since the late 1990s. For the past decade, its military spending has surpassed the annual GDP growth, reflecting Beijing's priority for military modernisation and its global ambitions.
In 2020, its spending was $209.16 billion (1.268 trillion yuan). According to Chinese Ministry of Finance figures, this year, the spending is expected to be close to $208 billion (1.35 trillion yuan).
It is the PLA's cyber, space, and electronic warfare service branch. Its focus on emerging technologies points to China's recognition of the global trend that "informatisation" or information-based/data-driven combat operations are at the core of contemporary military advancement.
The SSF reports directly to the CMC and not to any of the theatre commands, enabling joint operations for all the theatre commands through the CMC, acting like their "information umbrella". Its creation has improved the PLA's ability to fight information wars vis-a-vis its adversaries.
The SSF administers two deputy theatre command-level departments: the Space Systems Department, responsible for military space operations and the Network Systems Department, responsible for information operations such as cyberattacks and cyber espionage campaigns, for which China has gained notoriety in recent years.
India's first Chief of Defence Staff, late General Bipin Rawat, had remarked that China is the "biggest security threat" facing India. India will have to take a long view of China's transformed military power and expedite and adjust its defence reforms to achieve the same results.
Implementing such reforms requires greater political management of the forces and lesser interference from the civilian bureaucracy. Moreover, optimising the limited budgetary resources, India must intensify its ongoing force restructuring initiatives, including integrating the three services and adding to its power projection capabilities.
The Russian-Ukraine conflict has exposed the limitation of the United Nations to safeguard the interest of the nation when attacked by the adversary. Russia rightly or wrongly has destroyed Ukraine and the international community has remained a mute spectator. India must tighten its belt and secure maximum budgetary allocation for the modernization of its armed forces to tackle the ever-growing real-time threat of expansionist China.
Prashant Tewari Editor in Chief
The Russia-Ukraine crisis has the world on its edge. The deadly conflict has divided the world into two factions with different takes on the situation. The United Nations Security Council has advised Vladimir Putin to withdraw its armed forces from Ukraine. However, the efforts went in vain as Russia vetoed the resolution. UNSC is having total 15 members, 11 were in favour of the decision. Countries like India, China, and the United Arab Emirates abstained from voting. In light of this, India's decision has garnered mixed reactions globally. While many support the decision, many are disappointed with the developments and condemn the Russian invasion.
'Balanced Diplomacy' is one of the primary reasons behind India standing on neutral ground to continue a good relationship with Russia. For years now, both countries have stood by each other on several occasions. The friendship between PM Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin is known to everyone. Along with this, the country has factored in its national security in the delicate diplomatic scenario. India has been looking closely at the ongoing conflict, especially when Pakistan PM Imran Khan visited Putin in Moscow just hours into its Ukraine invasion. Seeing the country's growing relationship with Pakistan and China has unsettled the political dynamics. However, India abstaining from voting also showcases its resistance to the recent attacks. "The Chinese explanation of the vote seems to support Russia, while our explanation is objective and points out that this was in contravention of the UN Charter and International Law. We have kept space for diplomacy and dialogue,"
Furthermore, the country has asked the Russians for de-escalation as violence will never be the answer. Is Neutrality Enough? Many have welcomed India's decision to remain neutral in the deadly conflict, keeping in mind the country's interests in the future. It is a tightrope walk for the country as it tries to balance its relationship with Russia and the USA, which are on the opposite side of the spectrum. However, questions are being raised about the move. Is neutrality enough? Is being silent about Russia's uncalled intrusions into Ukraine the answer? According to The Diplomat, silence is painful as an expert claimed that India will have a challenging future ahead after this stance. Its neutral approach may hamper its ties with the Americans and other Western liberal countries. What is all the more alarming is Russia's recent response to nukes. It 'highly appreciates' India's balanced approach in the conflict. This sets a bad precedent for the country as it could 'silently' support Russia's earlier actions in Ukraine and Crimea. As a liberal democracy, India's neutral stand is not appreciated by Ukraine at all. The country's envoy in India publicly showed his discontentment as it wants a powerful developing nation like ours to stand with a country in crisis.
Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke to Narendra Modi, requesting his support in the same. US President Joe Biden said to PM Modi must take a stand on the current crisis. It is noteworthy to mention the stand taken by Ukraine viz Russia in respect of Indian national interest namely Kashmir, the border dispute between India & China, bogus human rights issues, etc, India should deal with the current crisis.
Prashant Tewari, Editor-in-Chief
Tablighi Jamaat is often considered extremely orthodox in its interpretations, with the ability to convert Muslims into radical believers. The Tablighi Jamaat members have declared they are not political but they tacitly supported secular political parties in India to protect their interests after the partition of the country. They say the Prophet Mohammed has commanded all Muslims to convey the message of Allah, and the Tablighis take this as their duty. They divide themselves into small Jamaats (societies) and travel frequently across the world to spread the message of Islam to Muslim houses. During this travel, they stay in local mosques. This free spread has enabled them to meet the vulnerable deprived section of the Hindu population in India and backed up by the power of petrodollars & ISI dirty money machine including the vast network of Dawood Ibrahim and other anti-national entities, they have converted a large section of the population in the last 70 years with ease and without force.
Radicalism and Role in Acts of Terror Some TJ followers have worked as allies of Jihadi and sectarian organizations. However, once they joined the militant organizations, they cut off their links with the Tablighis. The terror groups have used the TJ congregations as a selection camp for recruitment. Tablighi Jamaat has been a sympathizer and supporter of jihadi organizations such as the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Al Qaeda and Taliban. According to the India Abroad News Service report, "As per WikiLeaks, some of the 9/11 al-Qaeda suspects detained by the US in Guantanamo Bay had stayed in the Tablighi Jamaat headquarters in Nizamuddin West, New Delhi, years ago". According to Pakistani security analysts and Indian investigators, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM) members, involved in the hijacking of Indian Airlines Flight 814 in 1999, were members of Tablighi Jamaat.
Recently, Tablighi Jamaat has been banned in Saudi Arabia, and Central Asian countries such as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, whose governments see its puritanical preaching as extremist. When conservative societies are getting modernized in a fast-paced globalized world, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) is being credited with ushering in a reform phase in Saudi society and politics by giving up age-old religious, and societal customs and laws. Under his stewardship, theatres have been opened up in various Saudi cities, women have been allowed to drive cars, women can visit markets or shopping malls without a male chaperone, and they have been allowed not to wear Hijab or Abaya in places or to cover their faces.
In India, policymakers need to answer a simple question, how do we want to shape the future of our country? The constitution has declared India a secular state, then can Tablighi Jamaat or Bajrang Dal exist with the secular system?
Prashant Tewari, Editor-in-Chief
The The poll pundits have sounded the alarm bell for the ruling party wherein disenchantment is building up within the electorate of a few poll-bound states. A similar disillusionment against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) showed in the results of three Lok Sabha constituencies and 29 assembly seats across 13 states.
The saffron party was handed humiliating defeats in Himachal Pradesh, where elections are due next year, and stares at complete rejection in West Bengal, where it had emerged as the second-largest party after the Trinamool Congress (TMC), and routed in Rajasthan. Victories in Rajasthan will be sweet for the Congress because not only did it retain the Vallabhnagar seat but also wrested the Dhariawad constituency from the BJP. In Vallabhnagar, the BJP finished fourth while in Dhariawad, it was pushed to the third position. Barring its performance in Assam, where Himanta Biswa Sarma’s leadership steered the BJP and its ally United People’s Party (Liberal) (UPPL) to comprehensive victories in all the five assembly segments, gaining four of these from opposition parties, the BJP put up a lackluster show if compared to its past performances.
The only seat where it was able to displace the ruling party was Huzurabad in Telangana. The BJP, which had won the closely-contested Dubakka by-poll last year, will now push to project itself as the primary challenger to the incumbent K. Chandrasekhar Rao-led Telangana Rashtra Samithi.
However, Congress will gain some confidence from the by-polls. Not only did the party emerge stronger in BJP-ruled Himachal Pradesh, but also fought tightly-contested elections in Madhya Pradesh, where although it managed to win only one of three seats, its 45.5% vote share was only 2% lower than the BJP’s. It also won the prestigious Deglur assembly seat in Maharashtra by a margin of around 42,000 votes. Deglur had become keenly watched because top BJP leaders like former chief minister Devendra Fadnavis had extensively campaigned in a bid to topple Congress. The grand-old party would also be happy that it has wrested the Hangal constituency in Karnataka from the BJP. The seat falls in chief minister Basavaraj Bommai’s home district Haveri.
The by-polls also indicate that a substantial section of voters tends to prefer regional forces that are in strong positions. The TMC’s enormous wins in all four assembly seats of West Bengal signal such a trend. Not only did the TMC secure more than 75% votes in all the constituencies, but the other parties struggled to even save their deposit.
Similarly, the Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress registered an emphatic win in Andhra Pradesh, defeating the BJP by more than 90,000 votes. The Shiv Sena, too, registered a win in Dadra and Nagar Haveli, its first outside Maharashtra. The Lok Sabha seat in the Union Territory had fallen vacant after independent MP Mohan Delkar died by suicide this year. Kelkar made serious allegations of harassment against BJP leader and Lakshadweep administrator Praful Khoda Patel, who was also governing Dadra and Nagar Haveli. The Shiv Sena fielded Delkar’s wife Kalaben Delkar, who defeated the BJP candidate by a big margin. Indian National Lok Dal leader Abhay Chautala won the Ellenabad seat in Haryana by defeating the BJP in a closely-fought election. Chautala had resigned from the seat in support of the farmers’ protests earlier this year.
In Meghalaya, voters preferred Conrad Sangma’s National People’s Party and United Democratic Party over Congress. In Bihar, although the Rashtriya Janata Dal could not win either of the two assembly segments in Bihar – Tarapur and Kusheshwar Ashtan – it held onto its ground and even managed to decrease the margin of victory considerably in Tarapur. The ruling Janata Dal (United) won both seats.
The biggest takeaway from the by-polls will be the BJP’s uninspiring show. The saffron party could not register wins in states where it is not in power, except in Telangana. The thrashing that it received in West Bengal and Himachal Pradesh are some of the biggest-ever defeats that the saffron party has faced. On the other hand, the Congress did comparatively well in BJP-ruled states, while performing exceedingly well in Rajasthan and Maharashtra, where it is in power.
Notwithstanding the regional dynamics, the BJP’s reticence in responding to matters that affect the common man like fuel price rise, unemployment, crashing businesses, and mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, even while it remains extremely vocal in counting its achievements in well-mounted advertisement campaigns, may cost the party dearly in the long run. While one should not read too much into the by-poll results, they do contain the warning signals of the beginning of a probable downfall.
However, BJP can argue that they have not unleashed the Modi card in the by-poll hence the initiative remains with them going ahead in the next round of elections.
(The writer is Prashant Tewari, Editor-In chief of the Opinion Express)
Soon after the capture of Kabul by the Taliban the radical outfit announced that the regime in Afghanistan would be based on Shariat leaving no one in doubt about the return of the Emirate of 1996. This comeback was happening through a sure and steady process marked by some tactical statements from the Taliban, hastily interpreted in many quarters as signs of political maturity, about the safety of foreign nationals, amnesty of the government employees who served the Ashraf Ghani dispensation, and assurance to the international community that Afghan soil would not be used to launch any covert offensive against any other nation.
Having achieved its mission of taking charge of the country in quick time, the Taliban held its hands at the Kabul International Airport only to see the completion of the evacuation of US and NATO personnel -- it showed its true colours by clamping down on the exit of Afghan nationals from the country. Its leaders, meanwhile, were initiating moves to give shape to the future government.
Taliban has expectantly firmed up its grid with Pakistan and China already and is beginning to repressively handle the domestic scene where significant changes had occurred over the two decades since its ouster from power in 2001, mainly by way of the rise of a new Afghan generation of men and women who had tasted freedom, entrepreneurship and international exposure.
The desertion of Afghanistan by President Ghani and the bulk of Afghan national security leadership in the face of the rapid advance of Taliban insurgents, has shown the reality of the intrinsic hold of Islamic radicals on the country, backed so explicitly by Pakistan establishment and the ISI-sponsored militant outfits like Jaish-e-Mohammad and Haqqani network.
For both the US and India, the two largest democracies, a Taliban-dominated Afghanistan poses a long-term threat but apparently for the Biden administration dealing with China as the rising superpower is taking precedence over the slide of Afghanistan back into the hands of Islamic radicals.
It is now coming out that the US administration made an error of judgment first in choosing for Doha peace talks with the Taliban representative who, for vested political interests, conducted that exercise totally at the back of the Afghan government of the day, flouting all strategic logic, and then in relying on Pakistan's mediation in those negotiations as an 'old ally' -- in complete ignorance of the fact that in the 'war on terror Pakistan was all along in league with the Taliban-Al Qaeda axis to serve its own long-range interest in Afghanistan.
All of this can perhaps be traced to the American policy-making process that relied on the past and did not take adequate notice of the rise in the present, of a new global threat of terror that was using 'faith-based' motivation to unleash its power.
While the Muslim world would generally find it difficult to disown radical Islam, the Pakistan establishment already using Islamic extremism and militancy as an instrument of state policy was wilfully tying up with radical outfits of the Pak-Afghan region to serve its anti-India objectives and only pretending to be on the American side.
In the current geopolitical setting, India's friendship with the US has to be the bedrock for a united effort to safeguard the interests of the democratic world against the forces of dictatorship and fundamentalism. India is upfront in supporting Quad for safeguarding the oceans around us against Chinese aggressive designs.
However, for India, the hostile Sino-Pak alliance active on our borders would have the potential of multiplying the terror threat from Pakistan once the expected revival of the Emirate at Kabul was completed. India's security strategy has, therefore, to be a multi-dimensional one -- but essentially an approach of its own in which strategic friendship with US would of course be a major component.
India has rightly kept up its bilateral relationship with Russia on a strong footing -- Prime Minister Modi has spoken to President Putin and the two countries have established a joint mechanism for monitoring the situation in Afghanistan. We have to manage friendships with both Iran and Israel.
A lot of work has to be done in South and South-East Asia too. In a significant development, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval chaired a meeting of his counterparts from BRICS on Aug 24 and used the occasion to highlight the grave threat to regional security posed by cross-border terrorism perpetrated by state-sponsored militant outfits like LeT and JeM. In the Indian context, domestic security requires added attention because both Pakistan and China had the capacity of fishing in our troubled waters and in particular, tinkering with minority politics here.
Above all, defence on the borders, built up under the Modi regime on an urgent footing, has to be kept strong enough to deal with both open intrusion and any covert offensive of the enemy.
The world is reacting to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in three distinct ways reflecting the extent to which religion-based politics of violence was considered unacceptable. The US has not taken enough notice of Islamic extremism and radicalism having sway on Afghanistan and has opted to quit that country leaving it to the Afghans to handle their own messy situation -- its main security concern was that the Taliban should agree not to let Al-Qaeda operate against the US from Afghanistan again.
The US has drawn an unrealistic distinction between these two outfits and refused to see the global danger that Islamic radicals would pose to democracy itself. In another response, Pakistan found a way of defending the Taliban by contending that criticism of the latter signified Islamophobia of the West -- a line promptly endorsed by many sections of the opposition in India including the Left with an eye on the political support of Muslims.
Islamic militancy in the name of Jehad has not found effective opposition from within the Muslim world because the radicals are 'revivalists' advocating a return to the puritanical Islam of the period of the Pious Caliphs which no 'faithful' would oppose.
A distinct third reaction conditioned by the present global geopolitics is from Xi Jinping's China which had managed to reach, with the help of Pakistan, some sort of giving and take with the Taliban. Early on, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban's political chief, at Tianji in China to strike harmony with the Islamic force.
Communist China finds itself on the same side of the fence as the Islamic radicals largely because of their shared political opposition to US-led West. This explains the extraordinary collision between a 'godless' regime of China and a fundamentalist Pakistan that did not see eye to eye with US on the 'war on terror'. India can see the deeper threat arising for the democratic world from a Pak-Afghan belt that was completely under the grip of Islamic extremism.
India's posture of sympathy towards Afghan refugees, apart from the Sikh and Hindu minorities there, strengthens its democratic credentials and status as a leader of the free world.
The comity of democratic nations has to have a good understanding of how Pakistan was able to harbour Islamic militants of different hues across the spectrum of faith, from the India-specific instruments of 'proxy war' like Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Hizbul Mujahideen (HuM) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) fostered by ISI -- which would be on the right side of the US and for that reason earn the label of 'good terrorists' from the West -- to the Islamic radicals of Taliban, Al-Qaeda and ISIS as also their derivatives which emerged in a high profile after the victory of the anti-Soviet armed campaign in Afghanistan conducted on the war cry of Jehad. These revivalist radical outfits carried a historical anti-West legacy and soon drew the wrath of the US when the 'war on terror' was launched in the wake of 9/11.
In the period of Pakistan's ambivalent conduct during this American offensive against the Al-Qaeda-Taliban combine -- the bunch of 'bad terrorists' for the US-led West -- it became increasingly clear that Pakistan had no problems with radical Islam and was, in fact, interested in replicating the success of Afghan Jehad in Kashmir. India will never forget that the first outfit of Mujahideen called Harkat-ul-Ansar (HuA) which infiltrated the Valley in 1993 was a mix of the Taliban and would later become Jaish-e-Mohammad founded by Masood Azhar.
Even though -- because of the Taliban's ire against the West -- these terrorists had kidnapped a number of Western tourists, the Pak ISI instructed its protege, the HuM, to extend logistics and other help to the Mujahideen. Pakistan's close relationship with Al Qaeda-Taliban thus preceded the launch of the 'war on terror' -- having seen the ISI playing a pivotal role in the installation of the Afghan Emirate at Kabul in 1996 under Mullah Omar of the Taliban. In the present second conquest of Afghanistan by the Taliban it is public knowledge that Pak-fostered terror outfits, LeT and JeM, rendered ground support to the radicals against Ashraf Ghani's forces.
There is a new geopolitical context around the likely return of the Emirate to Afghanistan. The American acknowledgment of Pakistan's role as a 'helpful mediator' in the peace talks at Doha between the US and Taliban has strengthened Pakistan's say in Afghanistan and somewhat moderated the old antagonism of the West towards the Taliban -- giving the latter at least some semblance of international status to its future rule in Kabul even if securing a formal recognition for it remained problematic.
China, because of its all-weather friendship with Pakistan and a direct political conflict with the US, has extended its goodwill to the new Afghan dispensation under the Taliban on an understanding that it's own handling of its Muslim minority in Xinjiang would not be made an issue of.
Russia, with its memory of the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan at the hands of Islamic extremists and radicals, would closely monitor developments in that country and certainly not allow any Afghan refugees to come in. Iran in the hands of fundamentalist Ulema would be willing to take a punitive line against the Afghan regime should the Taliban allow Shias to be targeted on account of the fundamental hatred of Sunni radicals against this community.
With Ashraf Ghani fleeing the country and the US opting to leave Afghans to their fate, India is left holding the torch of democracy in South Asia, demanding an inclusive rule in Afghanistan and activating UNSC against terrorism and violation of human rights in Afghanistan.
Since Pakistan will oppose India's presence and say in Afghanistan, India has to review its strategy of countering the cumulative fallout of a hostile Pak-Afghan belt. The exit of Sikh and Hindu minorities from Afghanistan under the fear of the Taliban would have the effect of hardening the relations between India and Pakistan.
Indo-US strategic friendship is needed for a global effort to mobilise the democratic world against the Communist dictatorship of China on the one hand and the advocates of Islamic extremism on the other. The Sino-Pak axis steering these two forces at the global level has to be flagged as the biggest impediment to world security. It is hoped the Biden administration will wake up to this new security scenario after its experience in Afghanistan.
India has to step up mobilisation through Quad, ASEAN, SAARC and the UN itself against this twin threat. While countering any aggressiveness of PLA on LAC, Indian security forces should not hesitate to take to punitive response against any Pak mischief across LOC. India is a world power now and Prime Minister Modi's reputation for taking strategic decisions that required political will is itself a deterrent for our adversaries but we have to go all out to build our defence and security capabilities. Somewhere this will be a boost for our economy as well.
(The writer is a former Director Intelligence Bureau, article courtesy IANS)
The Pakistan government at the moment seems to be rejoicing Taliban victory in Afghanistan. The manner in which it wanted to exploit the Taliban victory in Afghanistan has rebounded threatening to reinforce religious fundamentalist inclinations in Pakistan itself.
The Taliban's victory in Afghanistan may give Pakistan a choice to look at its relationships with its neighbours, not just from an anti-India stance as it tries to rein in and influence the Taliban to remain pro-Pakistan and not adopt an independent policy of their own.
However, the religio-politico situation of the region has increasingly shown a ripple effect in Pakistan, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) remains a prime example of such thinking.
Commenting on the evolving situation Ayesha Siddiqa, a geo-politics adviser at SOAS, UK, said that Rawalpindi invested primarily in the Taliban as it knew that the US would ultimately leave Afghanistan. Rawalpindi's prime desire was to ensure a friendly establishment in its north-western neighbouring nation, which doesn't get exploited against Pakistan's interests, especially by India.
While Pakistani fear that the Taliban victory may give a violent boost to the TTP, the Pakistani Taliban has close ties to their Afghan kin, and the TTP had started to be active again inside Pakistan even before the Taliban capture of Afghanistan.
The Taliban victory benefits from decades in which religious fundamentalism was woven into the fabric of Pakistani society as well as some of its key institutions. Siddiqa comments: "The fact remains that, notwithstanding the ambition to mellow the tone of religion in Afghanistan, Pakistan itself runs the risk of becoming more like its north-western neighbour more religious and more authoritarian."
Pakistan understands the complex situation very well and that's why it was pushing the Taliban to opt for a truly inclusive government besides broadening its contacts with other Afghan groups. A visit last week to the Pakistani capital by representatives of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance and other Afghan politicians is a pointer in that regard.
In discussing the fallout for Pakistan of the Taliban victory, analysts have by and large focus on Pakistan as fertile ground for the spread of Taliban-style religious fundamentalism as well as concerns that it would enable TTP to rekindle their campaign of attacks in Pakistan.
The TTP is a coalition of Pashtun Islamist groups with close ties to the Afghan Taliban that last year joined forces with several other militant Pakistani groups, including Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a violently anti-Shiite Sunni Muslim supremacist organisation.
"Pashtuns of the Afghan Taliban will, after a few years in power, find common cause with their Pashtun kinsmen in Pakistan... There are plenty of Pakistani Pashtuns who would prefer the whole of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly North-West Frontier Province) to be part of a wider Pashtunistan," predicts scholar and former British ambassador to Pakistan Tim Willasey-Wilsey.
In fact, the events of the last 75 years confirm that the main focus of Pakistan's foreign policy has always been anti-Indian in tenor and practice. It became a fertile ground for Mujahideen in the 1970s, as it wanted to exert more influence on the Soviet state as compared to India besides stoking the fire in Indian Kashmir.
Later it allied with the US just in order to belittle India, but the reality is that Pakistan has always tried to be involved in Afghan affairs due to the economic gains also and this trend continues even now. The British Foreign Secretary Dominic Rabb, while in Pakistan last week, announced a doubling of aid to Afghanistan to 286 million pounds and released the first tranche of 30 million pounds of that to support Afghanistan's regional neighbours including Pakistan. Thus, in a way the foreign aid has not only lined the pockets of Afghan gang lords and politicians but even Pakistani generals and politicians.
This complexity in Afghan affairs and the recent announcements by senior Taliban leadership with regard to India puts Pakistan in a real quandary. Pakistan might also be concerned after a Taliban official Sher Mohammed Abbas Stanekzai declared in a rare statement on foreign policy that "we give due importance to our political, economic and trade ties with India and we want these ties to continue. We are looking forward to working with India in this regard".
Pakistan in today’s contest may be rejoicing the de-facto control over Afghanistan but it will be a sure suicide in long term, leading to the destruction of the modern nation that its founding father MA Jinnah has dreamt of.
(The writer is Prashant Tewari, Editor-in-Chief of The Opinion Express Group)
Covid-19 has struck people from every walk of life. It has shaken India’s vast population and affected the economy, education, health care systems and also day-to-day normal life for the last year. Similar to many countries, India too undertook various strategic steps to control Covid-19 and implemented many national and state-level Covid-19 control measures. India has efficiently and effectively managed the emergence of the first Covid-19 wave. Although many epidemiologists and mathematical model experts predicted there could be a second or third wave of Covid-19 in 202 in India, political leaders and policymakers took such information very leniently and casually. The laxity to adhere to covid-19 protocols deviated in many situations across the country from the beginning of 2021. Critical analysis indicates that political and administrative machinery went into a certain type of overconfidence that India has achieved measures to control Covid-19. Such indications from political leaders have profoundly impacted the public and thus public diverged from adhering to covid-19 protocols. Recently, the top medical journal the Lancet wrote that Indian policymakers might have accepted the pandemic as an “endgame” in India once the first Covid-19 wave subsided.
Government machinery shall look beyond the political framework and political ideologies to face and manage national calamities and such pandemics. Political governments shall bring technocrats, political party leaders, businessmen, scientists, medical fraternity, bureaucrats, policymakers and public health experts together under one umbrella during this pandemic. Such efforts are foremost important to tackle the pandemic. It is worth mentioning how global partnership and amalgamation brought countries and organizations together beyond boundaries and borders to develop vaccines on the fast track. Collaboration between Oxford-AstraZeneca- Serum Institute of India, Pfizer-BioNTech and many others are some examples to mention about fruitful global collaborations. Although India has successfully made a couple of Covid-19 vaccines Covishield and Covaxin, logistic and vaccine drive did not catch the speed. There has been a slow process in the vaccine drive in India. Although India got world appreciation for supplying vaccines to more than seventy countries, India’s mass vaccination effort didn’t meet the expectation.
Declining of Covid-19 surge and the initiation of vaccination at the beginning of 2020 might have pushed the political administration to take things unconcernedly. Even top scientific journals like Nature viewed that Indian political governance shall listen to the scientists, medical professionals and public health experts when such a pandemic afflicts the country. Strong political will and political wisdom shall emerge to take up such vaccine drive as the top national priority. All political parties should accept the certain common mandate that political processions, festivals and public gathering functions should not be held. They should collectively accept the vaccination process for the public as the country’s urgency and priority. If political party leaders raise concerns and differences of opinion on India’s vaccine drive and on vaccines, the public may get into confusion. WHO scientists recently pointed out that mass gatherings and social activities might have contributed to a such sudden surge of Covid-19 in India. India began a vaccine drive on 16, Jan 2021 and countries might have initiated some weeks before that. After the vaccination drive began many political parties at centre and states started celebrating as India controlled the pandemic. After the onset of the vaccine drive, the drive began without acceleration. Emergency use of vaccines became non-emergency. Many other national and political issues became a priority over the vaccine drive. Notably, the Hon. High courts made a serious observation on election procedures in many states on violating covid-19 protocols. Although such events may be unavoidable, political parties shall understand that vaccine drive for the public is the need of the hour and important for managing and controlling Covid-19. Each state has been playing a different modus operandi in attacking the centre due to political differences and managing vaccination processes.
Political party members should fully adhere to the Covid-19 protocol and should exhibit exemplary gestures to the public. When politicians speak, support and propagate political rallies and mass gatherings, how public could follow the rules and guidelines? Political machinery across the nation shall come together and merge to work in totality against the national pandemic. Politicians and policymakers are good at comparing and boosting small achievements of Indian initiatives on national and global platforms. This type of comparison may not pay any benefit during a pandemic. Similarly, they may also analyse how other countries speeded up their vaccine drive for the public by procuring vaccines from other countries. India is the capital of vaccine suppliers in the world. Surprisingly, Statista reports as on May 20 in India only 3% of people got the second dose of vaccine and 10.9 % of people received the first dose whereas these figures may be ten times more in many other countries.
India could have vaccinated more people above 18 years of age, which may be better than many other countries if the vaccine drive could have initiated more aggressively in February. Now CoWin app is like Tatkal and is available for just 1-2 hours per day for vaccine booking. The public is almost in a frustrating situation to get vaccine slots even after trying for weeks through CoWin. This won’t serve the purpose of mass vaccination in India for control of the pandemic. In many rural areas, a digital divide exists with poor digital literacy and internet connectivity. We have the best IT technology service providers in the world and the government shall take the help of IT sectors to develop alternative apps or measures to speed up the registration process to cover mass vaccination in a short period of time. The establishment of “walk-in vaccine centres “across India could be an option.
Management of the vaccine drive by the government for such a vast Indian population could be discussed with all political party levels, management experts and other technocrats with help of well-established defence organizations and the medical fraternity without political differences. The time has come for all political parties to join hands to face a such pandemic. Covid-19 may be a wake-up call for all political parties to remove their political barricades and work together to curtail Covid-19 pandemic.
(The writer is Practicing Medical Scientist at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India. The views expressed are personal.)
The Hits & Miss of Covid 19 in India: The WHO Representative to India, appreciated the response of the Government of India to the first wave of the pandemic COVID-19 describing the Lockdown Measures as "timely, comprehensive and robust". WHO has, however, cautioned that lockdowns alone would not eliminate coronavirus and India must take necessary measures to prevent a second and third wave of infections. The government failed to understand the gravity of the problem. Healthcare spending in India is abysmally low for an emerging economy with a population of 1.3 billion. The lack of the desired level of investment in the health infrastructure has so far resulted in the fragility of the Indian health ecosystem which posed a big hurdle in generating an effective response against the pandemic. It is, therefore, strongly recommended to the Government increase its investments in the public healthcare system and make consistent efforts to achieve the National Health Policy targets of expenditure up to 2.5% of GDP within two years as the set timeframe of the year 2025 is far away and the public health cannot be jeopardized till that time schedule.
The country has a poor state of primary healthcare, especially in rural areas. It is strongly recommended that the Ministry urgently increase its spending under the National Rural Health Mission to strengthen the delivery of healthcare services in rural areas, keeping in view the languishing health infrastructure and inadequate delivery of health services to the much-needed rural population. The country is ravaged by natural fury but our country has shown tremendous resilience to overcome the traumatic time. It is good to see that the Modi government has started the work on a war footing and the country is gradually limping back to normalcy. The most surprising sequence of the covid pandemic is the behavior of China. They have become aggressive at the border and started challenging the armed forces of the country by snatching land parcels. Even more surprising is the silence of our government on the Chinese intent, The entire world at G7 summit condemned China but the Indian leadership chooses to remain silent.
Rafale Ghost: In another development that will escalate demands in India for an independent probe into the controversial Rafale deal, a French judge has been appointed to lead a judicial investigation into alleged corruption and favouritism in the 7.8-billion-euro sale to India of 36 fighter aircraft, including the role of a middleman whose disclosures India’s Enforcement Directorate is reportedly aware of but has not bothered to investigate till now. Given the central role played by Anil Ambani’s Reliance group – Dassault’s Indian partner in the deal for the 36 aircraft – the probe is likely to also examine the nature of the association between the two companies.
India and Dassault had officially been negotiating terms for the purchase and manufacture of 126 Rafale jets right up to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s publicly announced decision – on April 10, 2015 – to scrap that deal and replace it with the outright purchase of 36 fighters. In a sensational new revelation, “Documents seen by Mediapart show that Dassault and Reliance had, in fact, signed their first Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) – a document setting out broad outlines of an agreement – on March 26th 2015. That was 15 days before Modi’s announcement of the turnaround, and the exclusion of HAL, and begs the question as to whether the two companies had been informed of it in advance.”
“The two partners agreed on a maximum investment in the subsidiary of 169 million euros. Of that sum, Dassault, which held a 49% stake in DRAL, pledged to provide up to 159 million euros, representing 94% of the total, while Reliance would provide just the remaining 10 million euros. “This meant that Reliance was given the majority 51% stake in the joint venture in return for a relatively very modest sum. While Reliance brought neither funds nor know-how of any significance to the joint venture, it did bring to it its capacity for political influence. On November 9, 2015, Dassault CEO Trappier and Reliance Group chairman Anil Ambani signed a “strategic partnership agreement”, which was a more detailed document than the previous March 26, 2015 MoU, for the establishment of a joint venture in India. While it detailed how Dassault would provide “technology and know-how”, “technical assistance” and “international marketing” capabilities, Reliance was expected to provide only “production facilities”, presumably land, and “marketing for programs and services with the GOI and other authorities in compliance with applicable laws”. Narendra Modi has to face a twin attack on Covid mismanagement and Rafale Ambani jugalbandi in the coming parliamentary session.
(The Writer is the Editor-in-Chief of The Opinion Express Group)
Modi government's incompetence is largely responsible for India’s pandemic disaster, as infections and deaths mount at a terrifying pace in India, the prime minister’s team's culpability for the crisis has become startlingly clear. A literate leader might have saved India from this manmade disaster.
India’s healthcare system has collapsed under the weight of the Covid-19 pandemic. The country registered more than 3500 deaths and nearly 400,000 infections daily, off- course the official figures are always inaccurate. Videos of crowded mortuaries and funeral sites, and grief-stricken relatives outside packed hospitals are circulating among middle-class Indians on social media. This is after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared victory against COVID-19 in Jan 2021. Addressing a virtual summit of the World Economic Forum, he sought applause for saving “humanity from a big disaster by containing the coronavirus effectively.” Three months on, India is the epicenter of the pandemic and completely on its knees. The country’s health care system is on the precipice of total collapse, patients are suffocating to death, relatives are scrambling for beds, the most advanced hospitals have been reduced to begging the government for emergency supplies of oxygen, and crematoriums blazing nonstop have run out of hospital room and cremation wood. Social media is inundated with agonizing pleas for help, leading to a thriving black market for oxygen and essential medicine has emerged, and a nationally acclaimed in 2015 by the International Monetary Fund as an economic powerhouse poised to overtake China is now lobbying for emergency foreign aid.
India might have been spared this humanitarian crisis had Modi and his team not neglected their duties and vilified those who offered him, constructive counsel. He had the time, means, and access to expertise to prove the country against this inferno. As early as last November, a parliamentary committee had issued warnings of a second wave and urged the government to stockpile oxygen. But rather than bolstering India’s capacities, Modi used the virus to burnish his cult and pillage the country.
Last March, days after plunging India into chaos by announcing a nationwide lockdown with a four-hour notice, he sought tax-free donations for a fund called PM CARES to help the poorest of the poor, buy personal protective equipment and build oxygen plants across India. The equivalent of more than a billion dollars flowed into it during the first week. What did Modi do with all that money? Nobody knows and nobody is allowed to know. Because despite offering tax subsidies to contributors and using government organs to promote the fund, PM CARES cannot be reviewed by the state auditor because it is structured as a private trust.
As in so many of the pandemic’s worst-hit countries, this tragedy was avoidable and is largely the fault of a boastful and incompetent government. Yet, judging by the fate of other bungling far-right politicians such as Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, the U.K.’s Boris Johnson, Hungary’s Viktor Urban, and the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may well suffer few political consequences for his devastating misdeeds.
Like those other leaders, Modi has spent more time diminishing the pandemic’s seriousness than combating it. In early March, even as cases in India rose alarmingly, he again boasted that the country would serve as “the world’s pharmacy,” churning out vaccines for developing nations. His health minister judged India to have entered the “endgame” of the pandemic. In a new cricket stadium named after Modi, tens of thousands of largely unmasked people turned out to watch matches between India and England last month. Many more unprotected people turned out for Modi’s recent election rallies in the state of West Bengal, and an estimated 3.5 million people attended, with the encouragement of Modi’s Hindu nationalist colleagues, the Kumbh Mela religious festival.
The result? Faced with a crushing caseload and an acute shortage of vaccines, India has stopped exporting doses and is importing new jabs from Russia. Indian states are desperately fighting over the supply of something as basic as medical oxygen. He has also survived, already, blunders that would have wrecked any other political career: demonetization in 2016, hasty GST implementation and a botched lockdown last year that caused the biggest and most desperate internal migration witnessed in India since 1947.
The current crisis does seem more serious than others Modi has faced. Until now, his claims for instance, that Indian airstrikes in 2019 killed scores of terrorists in Pakistan or that withdrawing almost all currency notes in circulation punished corrupt businessmen with an exception of his favorite Gautam Adani could never be adequately tested against reality, especially because Modi skillfully constructed each time an alternative reality with the help of loyal journalists and social media trolls. The facts of extensive death and bereavement among India’s middle classes, and shortages of hospital beds and oxygen, cannot be denied so easily; they require no external verification. Even an illusionist as masterful as Modi will find it difficult to spin them to his advantage.
An ex-bureaucrat revealed his ‘control freak’ nature, his deliberate bypassing of his ministers. Modi soon sized up his secretaries, not necessarily correctly, and his permanent scowl started sending cold shivers. He then resorted to his unabashed mode of operating through favorites namely PK Mishra and Ajit Dowal, both bureaucrats gave cabinet minister status, which demoralized other equally or more talented officers. The latter had not crawled to ingratiate themselves. Lightning transfers became commonplace, and the PMO controlled every appointment to senior posts, as well as to boards and committees. Though inputs were taken from the RSS, the Intelligence Bureau and the spy chief, the NSA, mattered more. Stalinist shadows grew longer and the headless organization’s suffered when appointments took years. Babus and businessmen, however, learned to fake everlasting loyalty and started wooing Sanghis.
But no government could function with just handpicked cheerleaders, and experienced bureaucrats stopped sharing their lifelong experience, out of fear, and the political savvy of ministers was treated with contempt. Modi's brilliant idea of 75+ retirement to remove experienced politicians from active politics backfired. He can tolerate 75+ PK Mishra and Ajit Dowal but he has an aversion to 75+ politicians. As the Cabinet system crashed and responsibility became opaque, India’s performance ranking in all internationally comparable indices started tumbling, every year. And the inviolability of statistics disappeared, as fudging began. Officers realised that only style and spectacle mattered, not substance.
Covid 19 broke the spine of an already badly slip-disced economy. Just because the home minister was/is Modi’s most trusted factotum, all decisions, even those well beyond its limited competence, were decided by the lathi-wielding home ministry, not the health ministry. Regular imperious edicts flowed, without consultation. Relief work has always been an integral part of Indian administration, but since the two leaders maintained an eerie silence on the plight of migrant workers, no relief camps came up to alleviate such an enormous human tragedy.
While every sensible nation planned the production, import and distribution of vaccines and oxygen several months ago, India's illiterate leadership backed by mediocre RSS ideological guidance woke up to issues like pricing, supplies and international obligations only a couple of months ago. Even simple arithmetic of supply versus demand was hardly understood, advice from specialists received lower priority and the regime let its defenses down.
The invincible ‘spell’ is finally breaking, but what we need immediately is a fire-fighting and imaginative response, not vengeance. Today, India has become the new global epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, with daily infections surpassing 400,000 per day and the official death toll—likely a massive underestimate—nearing a quarter of a million people. Hospitals are being overrun with patients, and the crisis is exacerbated by a devastating shortage of oxygen. The Indian judiciary has gone as far as threatening capital punishment for anyone caught trying to divert shipments of oxygen from around the country to affected areas. There have been dozens of deaths documented directly tied to a lack of oxygen. So, what happened?
Modi government suffered from “arrogance, policy paralysis, incompetence, and no efforts to learn from the past year.” A government with a religious fundamentalist ideology that has taken aim at minority groups and elevated a form of mediocre fascist Hindu supremacy has failed its people spectacularly.
Modi has also refused to negotiate with tens of thousands of poor farmers who began a mass occupation on the outskirts of the capital New Delhi last year in protest of new harsh privatization farm laws. While the number of farmers protesting declined during the annual spring harvest as they returned to pick crops on their farms, an estimated 15,000 still remain, and many more are ready to return if needed. “What choice do the farmers have at this point?”. “The farm laws will kill them in the next few years, and, heaven forbid, if the virus comes, it will kill them quickly. So, death is on both sides.
In spite of being the world’s largest manufacturer of COVID-19 vaccines, India has exported far more doses to other nations than were deployed internally. Modi has been accused of engaging in “vaccine diplomacy,” giving away millions of vaccines to other nations to shore up his international support. The “vaccine has been put on the open market with limited provision from the government to inoculate citizens.” In other words, poor Indians have to wait far longer to obtain the vaccine compared to wealthier Indians who can walk into a private clinic and purchase a dose.
In the meantime, Indians continue dying in numbers so large that the capital New Delhi glows at night from the fires of mass cremations. The state governments have let down the country badly. Health is a state subject, yet ordinary leadership largely propelled by the Mandal commission's aftermath with zero competence fueled the disaster. Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh (post-Panchayat Elections), Rajasthan, and Gujrat state leadership remained clueless despite there being a gap of 14 months between the first wave and second wave. Delhi Joker's Chief Minister was crying for oxygen and medicine when the people started dying on the street. As the hashtag #ResignModi began trending to new heights, at least, Modi to save his face must sack his cabinet and PMO to bring fresh faces to tackle the crisis with a new approach and perspective. However, the narrative has consolidated with the large section of Modi supporters that “the government has failed on all accounts.”
(The writer is Prashant Tewari, Editor-in-Chief of The Opinion Express Group)
Modi government and several state government's incompetence is largely responsible for India’s pandemic disaster, as infections and deaths mount at a terrifying pace in India, the prime minister’s team's culpability for the crisis has become startlingly clear. A literate leader might have saved India from this manmade disaster.
India might have been spared this humanitarian crisis had Modi and his team not neglected their duties and vilified those who offered him, constructive counsel. He had the time, means, and access to expertise to prove the country against this inferno. As early as last November, a parliamentary committee had issued warnings of a second wave and urged the government to stockpile oxygen. But rather than bolstering India’s capacities, Modi used the virus to burnish his cult and pillage the country.
Last March, days after plunging India into chaos by announcing a nationwide lockdown with a four-hour notice, he sought tax-free donations for a fund called PM CARES to help the poorest of the poor, buy personal protective equipment and build oxygen plants across India. The equivalent of more than a billion dollars flowed into it during the first week. What did Modi do with all that money? Nobody knows and nobody is allowed to know.
Like those other leaders, Modi has spent more time diminishing the pandemic’s seriousness than combating it. In early March, even as cases in India rose alarmingly, he again boasted that the country would serve as “the world’s pharmacy,” churning out vaccines for developing nations. His health minister judged India to have entered the “endgame” of the pandemic. In a new cricket stadium named after Modi, tens of thousands of largely unmasked people turned out to watch matches between India and England last month. Many more unprotected people turned out for Modi’s recent election rallies in the state of West Bengal, and an estimated 3.5 million people attended, with the encouragement of Modi’s Hindu nationalist colleagues, the Kumbh Mela religious festival.
COVID-19 has shown that we have underestimated the insidious nature of and the menace posed by biological weapons to humanity. It is difficult to anticipate new, highly infectious, and deadly bioagents like COVID-19. The absence of immediate bio-defenses and the time-lag in finding treatment(s) and vaccine(s) enables the invisible enemy to inflict high morbidity and mortality. The latency period and mutation into virulent and different strains, along with the chances of a recurrence in waves, make disease detection and control more challenging.
Mass contagion and efforts to contain it, including through the Great Lockdown, have brought even the most powerful countries to their knees and economies to a grinding halt. It has pushed robust democratic societies into turmoil and has led governance into crisis. The pandemic has generated a psyche of fear, uncertainty, and helplessness among people everywhere.
Wish the ruling class in India should be literate enough to understand the scientific inputs rather than the usual election dynamic of dividing communities into communal, caste, and class lines.
The writer is Prashant Tewari, Editor-in-Chief of The Opinion Express Group)
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