As the economic figures make a huge turn for the better, it is evident that the Indian economy is gaining momentum. The credit goes to the policies of the government that had a vision to combine the global with the local.
Leaders don’t create followers…they create more leaders.
—Tom Peters
In what can be called the biggest endorsement of Modinomics, last week, India became the world’s sixth largest economy as its GDP, which stood at $2.597 trillion, surpassed that of France that stood at $2.582. More good news poured in the form of India’s 57th ranking in the Global Innovation Index in a poll covering more than 125 countries across 81 parameters — a massive improvement from the 76th rank in 2013-14. Meanwhile, the BSE-30 Sensex hit a lifetime high last week while the Nifty reclaimed the 11,000 mark, reflecting the overall mood of business optimism and investor confidence. Also, Reliance Industries became the second listed Indian company after TCS to join the $100 billion club in terms of market capitalisation.
The big turnaround in corporate India’s fortunes was best amplified by the June 2018 quarterly results of IT behemoth, TCS, which saw a stellar 23 per cent jump in its net profit driven by a 16 per cent jump in total income and a massive 44 per cent rise in digital revenues. CRISIL said that with a projected revenue growth of 12.8 per cent in the June 2018 quarter, India Inc is expected to see its best-ever quarter in the last three years in terms of top line performance.
The bigger news though is that India is poised to surpass the UK to become the fifth largest global economic powerhouse in 2019 which is a far cry from 2009 when India, which was the ninth largest economy then in terms of nominal GDP, rapidly slid to the 10th rank between 2010 and 2013.
The validation for Modinomics also came from ‘World Poverty Clock’ that said that 44 people are being pulled out of poverty in India every minute and a large part of the credit for this goes to the Jan Dhan, Aadhaar mobile trinity that sees more than seven billion dollars being credited directly into the bank accounts of the beneficiaries every year sans leakages.
No wonder that the rate of poverty reduction under the Modi Government in the last four years has been faster than what it was between 2004-2014 under the Congress regime. Modi baiters would do well to know that India’s entry into the top six world economies of the world has happened despite a global order that is increasingly becoming stridently xenophobic. What with Trump threatening China with fresh $200 billion worth of tariffs, even as the NATO meeting took place last week between Trump and Germany’s Angela Merkel that ended on a bitter note, with the US accusing Germany of favouring Russia and not making enough defence purchases from America.
Festering political worries in Italy and Spain, problems between Merkel and her allies, the Alternative for Germany and Christian Social Union over entry of immigrants via the porous border Germany shares with Austria and Boris Johnson’s tumultuous exit from the Theresa May led-Government amidst a rocky route to ‘Brexit’ have all led to heightened global tensions with trade and currency wars taking centre-stage.
India, which recently signed 11 Agreements with South Korea to double its bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, stands out as an oasis of political stability with the BJP-led coalition firmly in the saddle. Coming back to the economy, as if geopolitical tensions were not enough, many emerging markets, including in India which imports 80 per cent of its crude requirements, bore the brunt of crude oil prices going up all the way to $80 per barrel in May-June this year from $48 per barrel in June 2017 though prices cooled off from the recent highs by 6.4 per cent roughly last week.
Despite crude prices moving up from a low of $28 per barrel in 2016, India’s current account deficit (CAD) was a mere 0.6 per cent in 2016-17. And even in 2017-18, it was just 1.9 per cent of the GDP. In 2018-19, if crude prices remain elevated, CAD may be closer to 2.2 per cent of the GDP, which is still a huge achievement from 2012-13 when CAD touched a scary 4.8 per cent of GDP under the UPA regime.
The Rupee, that gained over four per cent in 2017, has had a rough ride this year but even if it were to slide to say to 70 or 72, it will not necessarily mean bad news as it would still be relatively overvalued in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms at those levels. Again, do note that in a bid to push exports, China is willfully allowing the Yuan to depreciate with offshore Yuan hitting an 11 month low last week. Ditto for the Japanese Yen which hit a six month low to 112.17 versus the Dollar last week. Even the mighty Euro which was hitting new highs versus the Dollar last year is struggling today to stay at 1.16 to a Dollar.
The moot point to be noted here is that 2018 will largely be a year of competitive devaluation amidst rising global protectionism and Rupee weakness is not India-specific. In fact, a relatively weaker Rupee, if anything, may be a pragmatic way to manage the balance of payments. Speaking of Modinomics, retail inflation last week inched to five per cent for June 2018 but this was largely driven by fuel inflation at 7.14 per cent versus 5.8 per cent in May 2018.
What came as a huge respite for the aam aadmi though is the fact that food inflation actually came down to 2.9 per cent in June from 3.1 per cent in May 2018. Also, as per the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) guidance, inflation should average 4.4 per cent in the second half of this fiscal once the kharif harvest comes into the market. Most importantly, a five per cent inflation for an economy that grew at 7.7 per cent in the March 2018 quarter is absolutely fine as India is comfortably poised to track a nominal GDP growth of anywhere between 11-14 per cent. The other number that made headlines last week was the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) figure for May 2018 which came in at 3.2 per cent. The soft IIP print should see a big improvement in June 2018 because the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI, which is a lead indicator, hit a six-month high at 53.1 in June 2018 from 51.2 in May 2018 on the back of higher output and new orders. So did the Services PMI for June 2018, that rose to 52.6 from 49.6 in May 2018.
Again, what will boost IIP is also massive infrastructure boost, given that of the 16,400 odd kilometres of national highways proposed to be built this fiscal, work orders for roughly 6,300 kms have already been awarded. Last fiscal, close to 10,000 kms of national highways were built at the rate of 27kms per day, the fastest pace ever in post-Independent India. The aim is to touch 40 kms a day soon.
In fact, if the June PMI numbers are anything to go by, IIP in June 2018 could well surpass six per cent or more, given that manufacturing has 77.63 per cent weightage in IIP. Interestingly, areas that stood out even in the tepid May IIP print were primary goods and mining which grew by a robust 5.7 per cent each, electricity generation rose by a healthy 4.2 per cent and capital goods grew by a solid 7.6 per cent.
It is said that the auto sector is in many ways a leading indicator of the economic momentum. By that logic, Modinomics has a lot to cheer about —with passenger vehicle sales growing by a whopping 37.54 per cent in June 2018 — the fastest monthly growth in nearly 10 years. Sale of utility vehicles grew by a chest-thumping 47.1 per cent. According to Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), total 2-wheeler sales in June rose by 22.2 per cent and motorcycle sales by a sound 24.42 per cent, in yet another endorsement of how purchasing power in rural India is alive and kicking, given that over 40 per cent of 2-wheeler sales come from rural areas.
Cargo traffic up by four per cent at major Indian ports in the June 2018 quarter, double-digit air traffic growth for 43 months in a row; with May 2018 growth at 28 per cent, bank credit growth up by a resounding 12.84 per cent in June 2018, driven by retail lending growth of over 16per cent; housing sales up by 23 per cent in NCR and; equity mutual fund inflows driven largely by retail investors from Tier-2 towns, going up by a healthy 15 per cent at Rs 33,000 crore in April-June 2018 quarter, are a ringing endorsement of how Modinomics percolated to virtually every segment of the “pyramid”. Finally, Samsung Electronics set up the world’s largest mobile manufacturing unit in Noida. Spread over 35 acres with a capacity to create 15,000 jobs and manufacture 12 crore handsets annually, the Noida unit is set to become an export hub for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It is the essence of Modi’s ‘Make In India. After all, in the final analysis, Modinomics is an idea that transcend borders with a vision that marries the global with the homegrown.
(The writer is an economist and chief spokesperson for BJP, Mumbai)
Writer: Sanju Verma
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Right now, people can only wonder on prevalent public opinions. Only time will tell which party will come forward at the Centre to provide effective leadership to India after 2019 General elections.
India is a vast country consisting of 29 States and seven Union Territories. An estimated population of 1.3 billion people constitutes almost 18 percent of the world’s population, occupying nearly 2.4 per cent of the world’s total land surface area. An immensely diverse country where each State and region is a mini cosmos in itself, cooperative federalism seems to be the key to the development of New India under a politically stable leadership at the Centre. In order to achieve inclusive growth with social justice, all States need to work in consonance and also think alike.
Recently, a no-confidence motion against the Union Government was moved by the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in the Lok Sabha over its unhappiness at Andhra Pradesh not being granted Special Category status. This incident reinstated a debate on the need for a uniform development of India in a non-partisan manner. With the 2019 Lok Sabha election on the horizon, political parties are already feeling the pressure to fasten their seat belts and prep up to face the poll in a rather democratically fluid environment. This further gets accentuated by the consolidation of regional parties under the umbrella of a loosely held, fragile and informal mahagathbandhan.
At this point in time, one can only speculate and try to analyse the general impression and political perception prevailing all around. Only time will tell whether the coming together of regional parties to form a Government at the Centre under the elected leader from the constituents of the mahagathbandhan, can provide effective leadership to a complex and culturally prolific country like India.
Though the perception infused in the mind is steered towards a big “no”, the backdrop of this sentiment is the victory of the Janata Party (amalgam of the various political parties like Congress (O), Bharatiya Jana Sangh and Bharatiya Lok Dal) in 1977. The party had a landslide victory against the Emergency imposed by the then Congress Government. It signalled the power of the regional parties against the monolithic power of a national party like the Congress and injected a new political paradigm in the democratic character of India.
Unfortunately, the Janata Party developed an intense internal, ideological and a political conflict later on and experienced instability in the Government with Prime Minister Morarji Desai resigning in mid-1979 and his successor Chaudhary Charan Singh failing to sustain a parliamentary majority later on.
This tumultuous political trajectory led to the premature dissolution of Parliament in 1980. Indian polity henceforth remained largely driven by coalition Governments under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Needless to say, these new political formations had a number of regional parties playing significant roles in survival and failure of the Governments.
The emergence of regional parties as major centres of power in India’s political, economic and social structure had been one of the most important developments in the country’s post-Independent history. Now, as the 2019 General Election nears, regional parties seem all set to play a pivotal role in influencing the formation of the next Union Government.
It is even (remotely) possible that India’s next General Election will produce a “third front” (anti-BJP grand alliance) Government headed by the leader of a regional party. Question arises whether regional parties can actually offer a competent leadership at the Centre. Sceptics are of the view that these parties at the State level or even a mahagathbandhan lack the charisma and a competent leadership to take on the formidable stronghold of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Contrary to this non-conformist approach, there is a need to analyse the probable faces of the political leadership of these regional parties in the context of equitable inclusive growth of federal india. Irrespective of political leanings, it is without doubt that today we need a powerful leadership at the Centre while looking at the geo-political, social and economic challenges before India. The critical question here is: Who are these regional political leaders of our country that we can bank on? How does one spot them among the opportunists and sycophants who plague the Indian politics? The litmus test is that these leaders should have been exposed to pan-India complexities in their political career.
Here, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is an exception, who although remaining confined largely to the political and administrative exposure in the State of Gujarat, offered tremendous pan-India leadership. He achieved unprecedented international recognition with his larger-than-life image. Modi has even been ranked among the 10 most influential people in the world by Forbes.
But do we have a parallel or a better alternative leadership emanating from the regional parties today? Certainly, political arithmetics and strategies can determine the leadership if an anti-BJP alliance comes into power in 2019. Who are these leaders? In the past, we have seen Chandrababu Naidu (son-in-law of late NT Rama Rao) emerging in the south. Naidu chaired the National IT panel under the NDA Government and was hailed as one of the “Hidden Seven” working wonders around the world by Profit (Oracle Corporation’s monthly magazine).
Naveen Patnaik (son of late Biju Patnaik), the current Chief Ministers of Odisha and supremo of Biju Janata Dal (BJD) held the position of Union Minister of Mines in the Cabinet of NDA Government under then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. He has been the Chief Minister for three consecutive terms and comes from an illustrious political family with good educational background.
Other names that resonate in the mind as State level leaders include Nitish Kumar, leader of Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and Chief Minister of Bihar since 2017 and Mamata Banerjee, leader and founder of All India Trinamool Congress (AITMC) and presently the West Bengal Chief Minister. Nitish Kumar served as the Bihar Chief Minister from 2005 to 2014 and 2015 to 2017. He was also the Union Minister for Railways, Minister for Surface Transport and Minister of agriculture in the NDA Government of Vajpayee. He was admired for the reforms in Railways and is considered to be a competent politician.
Mamata Banerjee, the first woman Chief Minister of West Bengal, is one of the exceptional politicians in the country who is self-made. She hails from a lower middle-class family and is well-known for maintaining a consistently austere lifestyle. She clearly stands on a pedestal with her determined and fearless leadership style. High on secular credentials and a scholar of Islamic studies, Mamata is instrumental in the consolidation of the Opposition parties. She served as the first female Union Minister of Railways, Minister of Coal, Minister of State for HRD, Youth Affairs, Sports, Women and Child Development in the Central Government.
Mamata, also known as Didi, pulled off a landslide victory, defeating the 34-year-old Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI (Marxist)) led by the Left front. In 2012, Time magazine branded her as one of the 100 most influential persons in the world. She is dynamic with proven administrative and political mettle, and resilience to withstand tough times.
Similarly, there are many other leaders in various States with a Pan-India experience. However, if there is an emergence of new leadership post 2019 parliamentary election, Mamata Banerjee seems to be the best option to lead the nation towards a positive change. Akhilesh Yadav, though extremely competent and popular, is not being considered here, as comparatively, he has less exposure than the aforementioned politicians. Also, since the discussion is restricted to the regional parties, Congress president Rahul Gandhi is also not an alternative however Congress party can surprise by agreeing to the possible consensus candidature of Pranab Mukherjee or Kapil Sibal, if the situation demands because both of them are capable of attracting several regional parties for their respective leadership bid as and when it happens.
The country today needs to shift its focus on a competent leadership to match the robust captaincy of Narendra Modi if the NDA is not able to again form the Government in 2019 (though chances are remote as there seems a very high possibility of a second term for the Modi Government).
The issue is who can bring about inclusive economic, social and political growth of today’s vision of New India. We need to revisit our perception that regional leadership cannot lead the country effectively. In the past also, we have seen Prime Ministers from small parties in comparison to the large national parties like the Congress and the BJP. The election of HD Deve Gowda (United Front) and Chaudhary Charan Singh (Janata Dal) are some of the examples that prove the point. The biggest challenge is to choose a leader who can steer India to become a mature and transparent democracy based on sustainable political governance.
(The writer is a commentator, Bollywood actor and singer)
Writer: Mukesh Tyagi
Courtesy: The Pioneer
I spoke at a discussion, earlier this week, in a committee room of the House of Lords on topics related to Britain, Brexit and India. As i made my speech, I referred to the Indian exasperation of how our country is occasionally depicted as a land of endemic hunger and malnutrition.
David Goodhart, author of the best-selling Road to Somewhere that contributed immeasurably to our understanding of Brexit and other populist revolts in Europe, who was a commentator on the occasion, argued that the Oxfam poster analogy was dated. That view of India, which certainly held sway until the 1970s and which often propelled feelings of compassion, condescension and contempt — sometimes all rolled in one — is, he argued, now history. It has been replaced by the widespread appreciation of the British Asian success story, particularly the success of the Gujarati immigrants to the United Kingdom from East Africa. To add to that was the success of Indian companies, including IT companies, that, together, are said to be creating employment that benefits some 1.3 lakh people. I could even have added the contribution of Indian visitors to the UK, including high-spending tourists, that are said to number nearly five lakhs each year. More would have come had the visa fees not been so exorbitant.
Certainly there is much to be said for the success story of peoples of Indian origin in the UK. When I first came to London in 1975, among the first sights that greeted you was the elderly Punjabi women cleaning the toilets in Heathrow airport. There were, of course, a significant number of Indian doctors in the National Health and the Gujaratis — almost invariably Patels — that ran the corner shops and newsagents, but they were often subsumed, at the level of perception, by the factory workers in the Midlands and London. The Indian community in those days was relatively poor and objects of social disdain. They were also easy targets of racially-motivated attacks.
In 2018, it is a different story. The children of the corner shop owners are now professionals — mainly lawyers, accountants and techies — having secured degrees from Redbrick universities. Many have become mid-sized businessmen and others work in the financial sector in the city of London. There are also a sprinkling of Indian Asians in politics, many of them elected from constituencies where White Britons are in an overwhelming majority. Culturally, Indian Asians are distinct but this distinctiveness hasn’t created tensions. They are seen to be making valuable contributions to the British economy and they are also seen to be extremely hard-working and enterprising. Most important, the Indian Asians are seen to be law abiding, unlike those that trace their origins to Pakistan and Bangladesh.
However, it is also fact that the successes of the Indian Asians, whether from Punjab, Gujarat or East Africa, haven’t quite succeeded in denting official perceptions of the Indian passport. In the past year, holders of Chinese passports have had their visa fees made more cost effective. The same facility wasn’t extended to Indian passport holders, despite the claim that the UK and India are experiencing an “enhanced partnership.”
The reasons have everything to do with what the UK claims is the presence of nearly one lakh illegal immigrants in the UK. These are mainly people who entered the UK on short-term visitor visas, then simply tore up their passports and disappeared into the crowd. The UK insists India should take these people back. In theory, India doesn’t disagree with the principle that Indian citizens who have been expelled from the UK, for whatever reasons, should be returned home. India and UK also have a treaty of extradition — an agreement that is giving the likes of Vijay Mallya sleepless nights.
To be able to deport an illegal immigrant of Indian origin, the British authorities have to prove that the culprit was the holder of an Indian passport. This, however, isn’t possible unless the Indian authorities confirm this is indeed so. Unfortunately — or so Whitehall claims — the Indian authorities lack any sense of urgency and have demonstrated laxity and indifference. Those familiar with India’s local police networks — the ones who will have to provide the verification — will understand the UK’s exasperation. Moreover, it is hellishly difficult to trace pre-biometric passports, especially if some crucial details such as father’s name or village address turn out to be a little different from the ones given in the passport. The British wanted all enquiries to adhere to a timeline. Initially North Block agreed and an agreement was initialled but the Government then had second thoughts and the agreement wasn’t finalised and signed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit for the Commonwealth Summit last April.
Both sides have conflicting versions of why things went wrong. Reassuringly, however, both sides are agreed that an agreement is still possible. For India’s sake I hope it is. This is not because the UK is in any ways a top dog but that India should always signal its respect for national laws, on a strictly reciprocal basis. Once governments across the world but particularly in the European Union, the US, Canada, Singapore, the Gulf and Australia — areas that have large concentrations of Indian workers — are persuaded that New Delhi takes ultimate responsibility for its citizens, life will become much easier for the genuine Indian entrepreneur, professional, student and tourist.
At present, there is a mismatch between India’s worth as a rising economic power and an Indian passport. In the past four years the gap has narrowed thanks to the proactive, citizen-friendly initiatives of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, but much more will have to be done before the Indian passport gets the full respect it deserves.
Writer: Swapan Dasgupta
Courtesy: The Pioneer
India is a land of many tongues. Some say themselves as Bharatiya, some say Hindu and some say Indian. No matter which language we are using, the only thing that need to be understood by all is, we all are talking of one and the same thing.
A few months ago, I met with a Christian family from Agra and they asked a lot of straightforward questions about the RSS. I answered every one of those queries. They attended some RSS programs and had a first-hand experience of the Sangh. Now, when they meet a co-religionist who claims that RSS is anti-Christian, they pose three questions to them:
Invariably, the answers they get are in the negative. During a subsequent routine tour, when I was in Agra, this family insisted I should stay with them. They also arranged my meeting with the Bishop there. We went to the Bishop’s office and the meeting went well. But we can’t expect such openness from the Left-inspired RSS haters.
There is a Marathi poem, roughly translated, which goes: Those who are habituated to say “Yes” do not want to hear any “No”. And those who are habituated to say “No” have no place for a “Yes”. In the same vein:
In our “inclusion” of all we also include these “intolerants”.
But in their (intolerant) tolerance they cannot tolerate us, the “inclusive”.
During his travels, the RSS Sarsanghchalak often meets influential people from all walks of life. During one such interaction, he met with a well-known industrialist who suggested that in place of using the word “Hindu” the Sangh should use the word “Bharatiya”. To this Dr Mohan Bhagwat replied, “For us, there isn’t much difference between the two terms. However, the term Bharat has a territorial connotation while the term Hindu has value-based resonance.” This is the reason why Pakistan-born academic Tarek Fateh refers to himself as Hindu. Hence, you can say Bharatiya and we can say Hindu. Some others may say Indic. We would understand that we are all speaking of one and the same thing. This is what is meant by Ekam Sat Vipra Bahudha Vadanti.
But in the dogmatic worldview of communists these values, so Bharatiya in their essence, hold no significance. Their tribe insists that in the so-called “secularist” lingua franca Hindutva is a pejorative. Should you deviate from this language, then even the right to live is denied. You are not even worthy of being tolerated, let alone be engaged with. In Kerala, the bastion of communist intolerance and a Stalinist enclave, from March 1965 till May 2017, over 233 RSS workers have been killed for the only reason that they were working for the Sangh. Significantly, 60 percent of them were former communists.
As many times as one may try and explain the idea of a Hindu Rashtra in conceptual terms and its true meaning, communists and left-leaning “intellectuals” — sans engagement or debate — will define it only as narrow, divisive and exclusive. They will quote some old letters or an article and copy, paste and reproduce it without any allusion to historical context or deliberation. They will never pay heed to what RSS leaders have been saying during these years and continue to say till today. The reason is simple — it’s their Orwellian response of “two legs bad”!
However, just because they choose to look away and obfuscate at every given opportunity, the irrefutable fact remains that there are Muslims and Christians in the RSS. As Hindus, we do not believe in conversions, hence these Swayamevaks keep following their religious practices freely. In 1998, there was a three-day camp of the Vidharbha Prant (in Maharashtra) where 30,000 Swayamsevanks participated in full uniform, staying in tents. These camps normally take place only over the weekend and a headcount in undertaken of participants to make special food arrangements for those who observe a fast on Saturdays.
During the headcount, it emerged that as it was the holy month of Ramzan and there were 122 Swayamsevaks who were keeping rozas, they needed to break their fast after sundown. Accordingly, arrangements were immediately made to facilitate this. Had it not been the month of Ramzan, no one would have noted that there were Muslims among Swayamsevaks in the camp.
These are stories drawn from real- life experience which do not usually make it to the hallowed pages of mainstream publications. However, if you observe carefully and eschew the rhetoric that is peddled therein, their stark intolerance and fascist approach to heterogeneity of ideas is clearly visible and increasingly stands exposed.
A recurring theme of their commentary in recent days has been that Pranab da has shown the RSS a mirror; well, the Sangh is quite open to looking into the mirror and does so every year at Chintan Shivirs and the Pratinidhi Sabha! In these meetings, a careful examination of the activities undertaken and course correction if necessary is deliberated upon. Such a meeting took place as recently as in the month of April in Pune.
But when will ‘left-liberals’ who stake claim to the progressive values of inclusiveness but display every aspect of intolerance in their actions look in the mirror as see beyond their hatred of the RSS? Whether or not they choose to look into the mirror, their truth is reflected in their actions and the public continues to take note of the rampant hypocrisy, between words and actions.
On a lighter note, one must express one’s gratitude. Had it not been for their shrill display of intolerance, the media would not have turned the lens on a program that is an annual RSS event and always has distinguished guests invited to speak.
Thanks to the intolerance of communists and those inspired by their hollow rhetoric, the general public got to witness live transmission of the programme.
From June 1 to June 6 the official RSS website received an average of 378 hits/requests each day; on the day of the program attended by Dr Pranab Mukherjee we got 1,779 hits/requests. Need one say more?
(Concluded)
(The writer is Sah Sarkaryavah, RSS)
Writer: Manmohan Vaidya
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Former President Pranab Mukherjee visit to the RSS headquarters shows the Indian tradition of acceptance without annoyance and appropriation.
Despite the staunch protest by his own party, Dr Pranab Mukherjee remained resolute in his decision to participate in the closing ceremony of the Tritiya Varsh Sangh Shiksha Varg of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). His conviction in the democratic principle of open engagement is worth acknowledging with gratitude. During his visit to Nagpur, the former President visited Dr KB Hedgewar’s ancestral home and offered homage to a man he considered “a great son of India”.
He also paid his respects at Smriti Mandir, dedicated to the memory and service of Dr Hedgewar and Shri Guruji Golwalkar at the RSS headquarters and went on to place his thoughts before the gathered audience with unflinching honesty. Before the program and away from the camera lens there was a meet-and-greet program with senior RSS functionaries and special invitees, in which he participated with endearing simplicity. At the time of personal introductions, he suggested all present introduce themselves and, leading by example, offered: “I am Pranab Mukherjee.” For a man who needs no introduction, his simplicity was heart-warming.
Pranab da had come with a written speech in English whilst RSS Sarsanghachalak Dr Mohan Rao Bhagwat spoke in Hindi. Both speeches, however, met at the confluence of — Ekam Sat Vipra Bahudha Vadantior That which exists is ONE, sages call it by various names. Furthermore, Pranab Da explained very clearly that the Bharatiya concept of the nation based on a unique, integral view is entirely different from the state-nation concept in the West. He emphasised our 5000-year old civilisational history with eloquence, highlighting the beliefs embedded in our view of life — Vasudhaiva Kutumbhakam and Sarve Bhavantu Sukhina which are values of diversity, secularism and tolerance that are further enshrined in our Constitution. Dr Bhagwat also expressed the same views in different words. Instead of ‘tolerance’ he used acceptance of all. He emphasised that no Bharatiya can be treated as ‘other’ or alien as we all come from the same ancestors. Both stalwarts emphasised in their speeches that the national life of Bharat did not flourish on the basis of one religion, language or race but on the basis of a spirituality-based integral, holistic view of life and the values that stemmed out from it. Dr Bhagwat also clearly articulated that the “Sangh would remain the Sangh and Pranab da, Pranab da” as this is the Bharatiya tradition of acceptance; neither imposition nor appropriation but acceptance.
This very view of life and value system is reflected in our Constitution. This humane worldview is also our greatest inheritance. Our neighbour Pakistan (which was once a part of Bharat) also gave itself its Constitution at the same time as us. However, its Constitution does not speak of these values that are inclusive; it neither takes note of inherent diversity nor celebrates it. Now the obvious question that arises is that when both were one country and one people, then why did this distinction emerge going forward?
The answer lies in the very spirituality-based, integral and holistic view of life which we have inherited. Former President Dr Sarvapalli Radhakrishnan and Gurudev Rabindranath Tagore have described it as the “Hindu View of Life”. Pakistan rejected it and Bharat accepted it. Actually, our Constitution is not the reason for our liberal and inclusive values enshrined in it but the result of our age-old integral and holistic view of life.These liberal, plural values have not come to us from our Constitution but through our Constitution. As Kahlil Gibran writes in his poem Children — Your children are not your children.They are the sons and daughters of Life’s longing for itself.They come through you but not from you. And though they are with you, yet they belong not to you.
Similarly, we are traditionally liberal, secular and inclusive not because of our Constitution but our Constitution has enshrined these values because we have been like this since ages, for at least 5,000 years. Hence, it is our duty to honour and follow the Constitution. The RSS has stayed steadfast in this pursuit. Despite the unfair, unjust ban on the RSS imposed by the then regimes twice, the satyagraha carried out in protest on both occasions was countrywide, disciplined and peaceful; an unparalleled example of protest in the history of independent Bharat, and one that was absolutely Constitutional. No other organisation or party can claim such a history. But consider the dissonance — those who violate every tenet of the Constitution, take the path of violence, attack our own armed forces, and those who support divisive, unconstitutional activities are the ones who preach the virtues of the Constitution to the RSS.
On April 2 this year, the “Bharat Bandh” called only in six BJP-ruled States which witnessed despairing scenes of unprovoked violence was actively supported by Rahul Gandhi and the “secular-liberal” lobby, without any consideration for the Constitutional and democratic values propounded by Dr BR ‘Babasaheb’ Ambedkar and enshrined in our Constitution. After Pranab da’s speech, those who had been anxious about what this engagement might reveal were quick to come up with sanctimonious summations that explained away this engagement. These reactions confirmed that the Left still has influence over the political and intellectual space of our country. This very Left ideology lacks space for dissent, liberty and tolerance — and being non-Bharatiya does have something to do with it. Left intellectuals discarded analysis and commented with farcical haste that Pranab da had shown the RSS “a mirror” by speaking of secularism and Jawaharlal Nehru from an RSS platform et.al.
It is important to note, however, that critics of Pranab da’s visit to Nagpur had nothing to say of Dr Bhagwat’s speech. It’s possible that they didn’t hear his speech; maybe it wasn’t worth their time. After all, that would be in sync with their elitist definition of ‘free speech’ which prescribes that all they say is correct and all else is falsehood. Essentially, they were saying ‘We are right and you are wrong’, on the lines of “Four legs good, two legs bad”, the famous analogy used by George Orwell in Animal Farm to expose the authoritarian tenets and hypocrisy of the communists. Hence, listening to “two legs” would obviously be blasphemy. The inclusiveness of Vasundhara Parivar Hamara (the song recited before the speeches in Nagpur) includes everybody, even those who practice intolerance. But those who believe “four legs only are good” would prefer to reside in the darkness of their ignorance.
In all those negative articles that followed the Nagpur visit, not one writer spoke of his/her own experience of interaction with the RSS as to be in conversation with the RSS is considered blasphemous and results in instant ostracisation by the “liberal left”, an oxymoron if there ever was one. Under such pressure, paying heed to what the RSS Sarsanghachalak says is not even an option.
(To be continued in these columns tomorrow)
(The writer is Sah Sarkaryavah, RSS)
Writer: Manmohan Vaidya
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Learning to drive will still depend on the goodwill of males – but for many Saudi women, the end of the ban offers a first taste of independence. Saudi Arabia lifted its ban on women driving. While the few women who have driver’s licenses are thrilled about hitting the road, activists warned that the journey to full women’s rights will be a long one.
The wheels of justice turn slowly but the wheels on their vehicles turned exceedingly well for women in Saudi Arabia who took to the streets in their cars on June 24 after the conservative Muslim Kingdom finally lifted the ban on women driving, seen for a long came as a symbol of the gamut of oppression women in the Islamic world undergo. From the capital city of Riyadh to the most confined areas of Jeddah, women were seen celebrating even as there were bitter moments due to the barrage of vicious comments from many men as they struggled to come to terms with this new reality. Allowing women to drive will mean greater independence for them as it gives them access to mobility independent of male members of their family, create more employment opportunities and allow for a greater, more visible role for women in day-to-day life. The decision to lift the ban on women driving was pushed through by the reformist faction of the Saudi Government led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. It follows on a series of decisions taken earlier: Since 2015, women have been allowed to vote and stand for municipal elections, allowed to celebrate in sports stadia and encouraged to enrol in universities across the country which have witnessed more women graduating than men. The reforms that the Saudi King and the Crown Prince have undertaken are to achieve ‘Saudi Vision 2030’ which believes in the economic and social liberation of the Kingdom’s subjects to end the country’s dependence on a foreign workforce and oil. Women are, at least on paper, equal participants in this effort. But let’s not get carried away.
The present move must be seen as a baby step towards ending gender segregation in that country. The biggest hurdle is to repeal the draconian Guardianship System which stipulates that all women in Saudi Arabia must have a male guardian whose consent is essential for any activity undertaken by women — to marry, divorce, travel. study or even get access to medical care. Thankfully, the monarchy has called for a review of the law but there are miles to go before this system is finally thrown into the dustbin of history. Saudi women are still expected in public to be fully covered with an abaya. They are also not allowed to swim, interact with men other than their close relatives or to try on clothes while shopping. Seriously. Sure, let’s celebrate the lifting of the driving ban. But there’s miles to go yet.
Writer: Pioneer
Courtesy: The Pioneer
It’s the ultimate political game. Been played with variations since 4th century BC when Chanakya jerked the rug under the Nanda dynasty and installed Chandra Gupta as the ruler.
It’s just brand new for Malaysia. There are scams. And there are scams which create scams. Any politician with access to public funds can do the former. It takes a real seasoned hand to do the latter. The script is by now familiar in Indian politics. Mid way through a Governments term a high ranking minister, usually the no.2 suddenly gets infected with righteousness and accuses his boss the PM of high level corruption. In an impassioned plea to his boss he urges him to come clean for the sake of democracy. The government goes into extended paralysis for the next two years and all sorts of worms emerge from the woodwork. Accusations fly and the swords are out. The no.2 resigns and joins the opposition party. Elections are held. The ruling party gets wiped out and no. 2 emerges as the new PM.
VP Singh in India pulled it off quite successfully using the Bofors scandal. 40 years on, nobody still knows the truth of what happened during Bofors. Its sole purpose seemed to be just the unseating of a government. Cut to 2014. The 2G scam too had all the makings of a scam. Not the real 2G scam, whatever that is. But the scam of creating the 2G scam. The moment the CAG dropped the 176,000 crore figure the media trial was over. The ruling party collapsed a couple of years later, and three years after that a special court acquitted all the accused in the 2G scam and set them scot free. Nobody much talks of the 2G scam anymore however there is a caveat namely Dr Subramanium Swamy. Its sole purpose also seemed to be the unseating of a government.
Now to Malaysia, so far innocent in the fine art of creating a scam that creates a scam. Is Dr. Mahathir Mohammed, 92 year old challenger and former PM following the Indian political script of 1989 and 2014? To seasoned political analysts, the pattern of events in Malaysia since 2015 seems to suggest some mischief is a foot. Here is a brief chronology of events.
2003 – Dr. Mahathir Mohammed retires from politics as the longest serving Prime Minister of Malaysia. He puts his feet up in his farm at Langkawi with cows and horses, and looks forward to grooming his son Mukhriz Mahathir in politics.
2008 – 2013 Mukhriz serves as a deputy minister of international trade. Papa feels it’s time he does something bigger.
November 2013 – Mukhriz gets defeated in the elections of VP of UMNO the leading coalition partner of the ruling party. This shock defeat is ascribed to back channel strategy by PM Najib Razak.
2014 – Mahathir announces he has lost confidence in Najib.
July 2015 – Mahathir’s lieutenant and Attorney General Abdul Gani Patial publicly pronounces Najib Razak guilty of accepting 681 million dollars in the 1MDB scandal, the same day leaked documents were published in the Wall Street Journal.
Najib reels with the media onslaught and international outrage. With his own AG calling him guilty the trial by media is concluded, he is guilty as charged. In the hullabaloo many facts go unnoticed. The Saudi foreign minister gives a press conference stating that the money was sent by the Royal family to PM Najib in order to help him fight Islamic terrorists and that most of the money had been returned by Najib. BBC correspondent Frank Gardner with extensive connections to the Saudis confirms that this is indeed true. Nobody is prepared to believe this. Najib’s guilt seems to be firmly established. In a near fatal second blow Najib’s own deputy PM Muhyiddin Yassin speaks out against his boss, telling him to come clean.
All sorts of worms come out of the woodwork. Many facts surface in the 1MDB scam, some linked to Najib’s step son. US Department of Justice starts an enquiry. Media takes this as further rock solid proof of Najib’s guilt even though he was not the target of enquiry by DOJ or any other investigating agency worldwide. Najib fights back. He asks the Public Accounts Committee consisting of both ruling party members and opposition leaders to investigate. The committee deliberates and gives Najib a clean chit in 2016. Then former Deputy PM Yassin quietly joins Mahathir Mohammed’s camp and the two start off a new political party PPBM, whose sole purpose is to cleanse the Nation of Najib and of course come to power. It’s time for the final death blow to Najib and the knives are sharpened and ready.
Najib might still win, given his popularity and support of the Malaysian voters who seem be getting tired to Mahathirs daily whining. Mahathir is hoping the momentum of the 1MDB scandal and the Malaysian people’s inability to understand political strategy will work in his favour. To political analysts all over the world who are keenly watching this is the ultimate prize fight. For the next month or so, all eyes are on Malaysia.
Writer Sudheer Mopperthy is Far East countries expert, views expressed are personal opinion.
kaalisudheer@gmail.com
Led by a core central leadership, distinct terror groups purposely urged with common beliefs, “We are expected to face until the origin of jihadi terrorism is addressed in all seriousness and authenticity”.
With the collapse of Islamic State’s (IS) dream of a Caliphate and severe depletion of Al Qaeda Central (AQ), the two icons of global jihadi terror, the focus is now shifting on the emerging landscape of global terror. IS which rose to fame in 2014 after being divorced from its parent organisation AQ, soon became the trendsetter and poster boy for global jihad. While on the other hand, after the killing of Osama Bin Laden, AQ kept losing its sheen and gradually also lost the leadership of global jihad. Though they shared a common ideology, their differences grew larger and bitter with the rapid successes of IS overshadowing the rivalry between the two. The golden era of the Caliphate announced by Baghdadi and his claim of being the Caliph, supreme leader of all Muslims of the world, has now become a part of history with its defeat in Syria and Iraq with virtual loss of all the territory it captured and its sudden collapse. But from all available inputs, it is abundantly clear that IS has been defeated but not destroyed.
Many of the IS fighters have returned to their native nations and others have redeployed in smaller groups by relocating themselves in different parts of the world thus spanning the wings of the terror group. However, the lure of foreign jihadists to fight for the Caliphate has almost ended. The iron hand control that was exercised by Baghdadi over IS fighters has diminished to a great extent.
On the other hand, AQ, known for its network of radicalised Islamic extremists and Wahhabi jihadists properly trained in terror training camps in Afghanistan, and virtual leader of global jihad and international terror till 2014, has been badly enfeebled leading to its decline. It has not carried out any major terror attack for almost a decade now. It has been badly decimated in Afghan-Pakistan region, its stronghold once. Its actions are limited to sporadic terrorist acts by its associated groups and lone-wolf operations. The rout of AQ has to some extent been compensated by its regional groups and allies like Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb, Al Qaeda in Arabian peninsula, Al Qaeda in Indian subcontinent, Taliban, Haqqani Network, LeT, JeM etc., who are effective in their respective regions.
While ISIS is transforming into a terror organisation with a flat hierarchy, with cells and affiliates increasingly acting autonomously, Al Qaeda, despite the debilitation of Al Qaeda Central, continues to exercise influence in several regions through its regional groups and allies. Despite suffering reverses, the hatred of both the terror groups’ for the West, non-believers, democratic regimes and apostate Islamic regimes has not diminished.There has been no significant reduction in the issues that led to the rise of global jihad terror groups. On the contrary, the improved technologies have facilitated better integration between the global terror groups and local/regional insurgents spread across the globe. Growing solidarity among Muslims across the globe has given a spur to regional resistance movements, like the one in Kashmir. The fast-spreading radical Islamic ideology has boosted the potential for catastrophic global terrorism. Though every radicalised Muslim is not an extremist, the educated, unemployed radicalised Muslim youth continues to be attracted towards jihad employing terror as a legitimate instrument of avenging the perceived injustice being done to the members of their community world over. They have entrenched belief in the fact that rule of Sharia is the panacea for all ills and discrimination facing the Muslims.
Though both the global terror groups have been weakened, the end of global jihadi terror is nowhere in sight. In the future, will they continue to operate with distinct existing identities or manifest in a different form?
There has been fervent appeals in the recent years for jihadists to unite world over. Some members of both organisations have been willing and able to support each other in the preparation of attacks. In a recent statement, Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri urged warring jihadists to “unite and agree and gather and merge and cooperate and stack together as one rank” as “this is the basis of victory and salvation”. He told terrorists in a video last year that unification against the “international satanic alliance” on a global front was critical: “Communicate, link up with each other and extend a helping hand to your Muslim brothers in all Muslim lands. This is the surest way to victory.” Zawahiri’s recent audio message urging jihadist groups and mujahideen, “Unite and close your ranks with your Muslim brothers and mujahideen not just in Sham [Syria], but the entire world, for it is a single Crusader campaign being waged against Muslims the world over,” indicates the urgency for unity.
In such a situation, the question that begs an answer is who will bear the mantle of leadership of global jihad or what will be its future? There are three likely scenarios. First, the total integration of all terror groups into a single “Super Terror” group or an IS-AQ ‘Frankenstein’ with unified central leadership and top-down control. Second, a convergence of purpose at the regional level with regional command and control but continue to maintain their separate identities. Third, the merger of the cadre of the two global terror groups with the local resistance movements in their respective regions/countries.
Given the vast differences and ego-clashes that exist today between the leadership and cadre of the two global groups, there is less likelihood of the first two options seeing the light of the day. The third option appears more viable and likely emerging future of global jihad motivated by a common ideology of Universal Jihad. Universal Jihad will be directed against kafirs, democratic Governments and man-made laws which are against the spirit of a strict form of Sharia Law in a specified region. Distinct terror groups with regional identity and purpose spurred by a common ideology of Universal Jihad guided, financed and motivated through a core central global leadership is what we are likely to face in the coming years until the root cause of jihadi terrorism is addressed in all sincerity by the international community.
A new breed of Jihadists, radicalised and motivated through social media, ready to fight wherever they feel their Muslim brothers are under threat, will also be contributors to Universal Jihad. The fight will be ideology driven and geographical boundaries will be no barriers. Such groups will also rise within a nation-state. Thus, we in India will have to be prepared to face jihadists from other parts of the country joining their Kashmiri brethren and vice-versa. It would be a major challenge for intelligence agencies operating at various level. The likelihood of an individual not affiliated with any terrorist group to be able to inflict widespread loss of life through acts of terror will also increase.
Internet will become the primary source of training, training materials, motivation, target nomination, technical know how and coordination of terrorist operations that would aim at mass causalities and high visibility. IT will be exploited to the hilt to enable connectivity with the core group which is unlikely to remain stationary.
The terror threats will manifest in form of lone-wolf attacks, use of explosives-laden vehicle, suicide attacks. According to a top US think-tank: “Terrorists probably will be most original not in the technologies or weapons they use but rather in their operational concepts — i.e., the scope, design, or support arrangements for attacks.” One such concept that is likely to continue is a large number of simultaneous attacks, possibly in widely separated locations.The likelihood of terrorists using Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), the biological weapons, in particular, will increase. With a view to cause mass causalities, the danger of bio-terror and use of mini nuclear or radiological devices looms large. With highly educated and skilled youth joining the jihad, chances of a cyber- attack can also not be ruled out.The terrorists are also likely to resort to the use of advanced explosives and drones. The use of the third dimension by the jihadi terrorists is a new challenge. narco-terrorism is another challenge.
The new global war on terror will also get decentralised to a large extent. The success of counter-terrorism operations will depend on the willingness and capabilities of nations to fight terrorism on their own soils. The concept of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ terrorists will have to be sacrificed. Nations will have to ensure that their soil is not used for the cross-border terror by organised terror groups. The global cooperation on counter-terrorism will include intelligence-sharing, training and capability building. Thus, India’s strategy of signing bilateral agreements with affected nations to fight terror is a step in right direction and in keeping with future challenges. However, a major overhaul of our internal security apparatus including capability and capacity building as well as issues relating to command and control, centre-state coordination and the national consensus is urgently needed to meet the emerging challenges.
(The writer is a Jammu-based political commentator, columnist, security and strategic analyst. Views expressed here are personal)
Writer: Anil Gupta
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Vinay Sitapati’s book, Half Lion: How PV Narasimha Rao Transformed India, seeks to restore the Prime Minister’s place in the pantheon of great Indian leaders. He has enough evidence to demolish false accusations against Rao in Babri Masjid demolition case.
The bane of modern Indian history is the unconscionable distortions injected into it by historians owing allegiance to the Marxist and Nehruvian schools. This has resulted in a string of untruths being bandied about for decades about personalities and events both in the pre and post independence eras.
Such is the grip of these two schools over academia that even after free thinking historians, who are not prisoners of ideology, ex-hummed many truths that negated the mythologies palmed of by these palace historians, misrepresentations continue to permeate the text books and lectures in schools and colleges.
Subhash Chandra Bose, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, BR Ambedkar, Syama Prasad Mookerjee, Rajendra Prasad are some of the names that immediately come to mind of national leaders whose contributions have been deliberately ignored and who have been victims of the falsification of history. In more recent times, a prominent victim of the machinations of these two schools is PV Narasimha Rao, one of India’s most cerebral and successful Prime Ministers who saved India’s unity and integrity and pulled the country out of an economic rut during 1991-1996 and put it on the high road to growth.
The purpose of the so called scholarship by entrenched academics from these two schools has been three-fold: one, to present members of the Nehru- Gandhi family as near faultless individuals who were deeply wedded to the core values of the Constitution and who sacrificed everything for the country; two, to present all their contemporaries as petty individuals with petty goals and with questionable commitment to constitutional values; and, three, credit all national achievements to members of this family and all failures to others.
This shameless and continuous glorification of one political family makes one wonder whether our academia secretly pines for a return to monarchy. Seen in the context of this fraudulent output by these historians, specially in the capital’s universities, Vinay Sitapati’s Half Lion: How PV Narasimha Rao Transformed India comes as a breath of fresh air.
Narasimha Rao became the Prime Minister at a critical moment in the nation’s history. India was standing at the door of the International Monetary Fund with a begging bowl and its foreign exchange reserves had slipped to such an alarming low that there was danger of default on loans. Rao picked up Manmohan Singh as his Finance Minister and began the noble task of dismantling the socialist economy that Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi had thrust on the country. He opened up the economy, liberated it from the licence permit raj, unshackled the entrepreneurial instincts of millions of Indians and invited foreign investments into various sectors.
These decisions brought about a spectacular turn around in the economy, restored hope among Indians and gave them the confidence to take on the world. He also pulled Punjab, which was engulfed by secessionist forces, from the brink and saved the unity and integrity of India. Instead of acknowledging the man’s phenomenal contribution, the Nehru-Gandhis and acamedics and writers hovering around this family, have falsely accused him of damaging India’s secular fabric and of being complacent in the fall of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya. Having pinned this monstrous charge on him, they hope this will wipe out his phenomenal contribution to the country. one scholar even spread the story that Rao was napping while the Masjid was being demolished. Another said he was “doing puja” while the demolition was on. Sitapati’s scholarly book covers a of constitutional machinery.
The law and order situation, specially on the communal front “is satisfactory”, he declared. Yet, Rao ensured massive deployment of central forces near the disputed structure prior to December 6. These forces could be called in within minutes, if there was danger to the structure, but the call would have to be taken by the State Government, because ensuring law and order was the responsibility of the State not the centre. There was also the worry that the Supreme court may quash a presidential order based on presumptions. Thus, the situation that prevailed just prior to the demolition was that “the Supreme Court, the State Governor and law Ministry officials, all seemed against Central rule”.
That is why after the demolition, Pranab Mukherjee told party men “all of you were members of the Cabinet and some of you were members of the CCPA. All decisions were taken in the meetings of the Cabinet and the CCPA. Responsibility is collective; the onus cannot only be on the Prime Minister or the Home Minister.” Sitapati, who had access to Rao’s personal papers, takes us through this narrative that presents facts that negate the spurious tomes that have been churned out on this issue until now. There is lots more to this book, but that will have to wait till later.
Half Lion is the first scholarly effort to correct the distortions that have crept into our understanding of social and political developments in India over the last three decades. It also seeks to restore Narasimha Rao’s well-deserved place in the pantheon of great Indian leaders.
– Shalini Saksena (The Pioneer)
Emirates Center for strategic studies and Research ECSSR is an independent organization, an intellectual arm of the UAE government. ECSSR conducts studies and research on topics relevant to the national security and socioeconomic well-being of the United Arabic Emirates in specific and the Gulf region in general with relevant international concerns. ECSSR provides community services with highly scientific activities with the convening of symposia lectures and conferences on topics related to the research agenda and actively assists the professional development of UAE nationals through training programs. ECSSR support to the government decision progress by preparing reports for the best policy scenario mix and ECSSR provides qualitative research for the decision-makers.
In a rapidly changing world, with new horizons and challenges expanding the scope of human activity at every turn, the wise leadership of the United Arab Emirates envisioned the creation of an advanced and independent research institution that would not only keep abreast with new developments at the political, economic and social spheres of human endeavor, but would also formulate the most suitable responses and strategies for keeping the UAE society ahead in the race of modernity.
It was with this vision that the UAE President, His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, established the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research (ECSSR), a premier institution of its kind in the Middle East, which has ever since set new benchmarks of excellence and expertise in the field of strategic studies and research.
At the heart of the Center’s mission is its adoption of a strategic and rational approach to addressing today’s and tomorrow’s pivotal and pressing issues. It also places a premium on rigorous discipline in the triumph of the academic and scientific enterprise. In addition, the ECSSR’s core research group involves a cadre of well-educated nationals that derive a qualitative benefit from a specially designed program. The dedication and sense of duty that characterize these young professionals are remarkable. In their development, they have cultivated a sense of initiative and courage that will undoubtedly light the path to an even greater future. H.H. His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE, appreciates the role of ECSSR in imparting quality planning to the government for delivering world-class governance to its people. According to the President of UAE, “As the United Arab Emirates is not isolated from these developments, it has striven to adopt essential measures for keeping pace with the requirements of the age, including the establishment of a prominent scientific research institution, the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research (ECSSR). The Center has demonstrated in past years that it is one of the most dynamic and effective bodies in the United Arab Emirates in monitoring global events.
The Center is concerned with tracking, analyzing, and investigating local, regional, and international developments on a structured scientific and methodological basis that guides appropriate decision-making. This process is inspired by the sound directives and the exclusive, unstinted support given to ECSSR by the UAE government, borne of the need to earnestly enhance the intellectual skills of UAE citizens and help them develop their potential as progressive citizens of the modern world.
Through its many concrete achievements, ECSSR has proven its ability to surmount all challenges and obstacles and has consequently become a well-established intellectual institution not only in the United Arab Emirates but also in the Gulf and the Arab world. Furthermore, ECSSR has acquired distinguished academic and research status at the international level. Hence, there is a need to continue our support for the Center within the context of strengthening scientific and intellectual traditions that lay the foundation for the building of modern societies that aspire to follow the path of accelerated development and progress.
Dr Jamal Sanad Al Suwaidi Director General ECSSR, the visionary intellectual brain behind ECSSR has pioneered a great road map for framing policies that created UAE in recent times. Dr Jamal spoke about ECSSR and the role of the ruler of Abu Dhabi ” Center?’s varied achievements and contributions could not have been realized without the honorable patronage of the late Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the constant support and laudable interest of His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE, and His Highness General Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces.
They have also spared no effort in supporting ECSSR, sponsoring its various activities and closely monitoring them with great interest, enriching the Center’s course with their sound directives, and promoting its activities and achievements. God willing, this support will help the Center to enhance its performance towards achieving excellence. The visionary leadership of Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed government of Abu Dhabi with Dr. Jamal Sanad-Al Suwaidi have envisioned making the ICT sector the fifth pillar of the economy. With the advent of the Abu Dhabi knowledge hub, Opinion Express Group of companies has presented its solutions with programs that can enhance bilateral ties between UAE and India in the Information Technology sector. Mr Prashant Tewari Executive chairman of Pantal Technologies and Opinion Express group of companies visited Dr. Jamal Sanad Al-Suwaidi with Dr Mohiba Khalil to present IT solutions in the ICT sector that can cover health care, Bio-matrix identity cards, micro-credit scheme and cashless society, national security services and national identity cards and similar possibilities. This will lead to better ties between the two friendly nations. According to Dr KhalilUAE society is shifting towards the knowledge domain, the vision of its great leader Sheikh Zayed had laid the foundation years ahead. Mr Prashant Tewari strongly feels that the ICT sector can fuel the tremendous growth of the UAE economy. Pantel Technology with its consortium partners would like to coordinate with ECSSR to facilitate the following reference to achieve the objective.
Excellent IT and Communication infrastructure
Infrastructure facilitating good quality of life
Availability of skilled human resources for all categories of IT jobs.
Cost-effective operations
Facilitative policy, regulatory and institutional framework
The UAE is setting a pioneering model for constructive interaction between the leadership and the people gives top priority to the interests of the citizens and spares no effort in providing them with a decent life. highly appreciated by the citizens who are willing to play an active role in national development and boost nations of the world.
The interaction of His Highness General Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu D Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, with UAE citizens in Al Dhaid on Friday is an example of the close leaders and the people and a true reflection of the policy of openness which this relationship is based Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who was keen to learn about the needs of the citizens, said that His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE and Supreme Commander of the (God protect him) to public concerns, and His Highness the President believes in providing a decent considers the true treasure of this nation.”
The UAE’s wise leadership strongly believes that human capital is the most invaluable resource and contribution to the development process is the means for national progress and prosperity. His Highness Gbin Zayed Al Nahyan’s statement made in Al Dhaid that “our leaders are keen to communicate with the p them a better service to both the nation and citizens” demonstrates the UAE citizen as central to the vision of our wise leadership.
Human resources, the main engine of development, are the country’s most invaluable asset. These wise leaders listen to the citizenry and make efforts to promote their welfare, in areas such as modern medical care and social services to provide citizens with a decent life. It is the tangible manifest. Stage launched by President His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan by “providing an empowerment of citizens in order to contribute to their social and political life.”
During their meeting with His Highness General Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, citizens express satisfaction and loyalty. There was reciprocity of mutual affection and appreciation between the leaders the magic mantra for the security, stability and welfare of the UAE.
– Report filed by Mohiba Khalil from ECSSR HQ, Abu Dhabi
The insurgencies that impacted the Indian landscape till early this decade were generally in isolation. Though, they like all insurgencies had external links, the internal linkages between them were at best tenuous.
The Khalistan insurgency could be extinguished because of its unidimensional nature. It was confined to a specific geographic area and was supported by a specific group of people, easy to identify. Their cadre base was low.
The Kashmir militancy had not fully reared its head. The ISI patronage and support was well-known. The pioneering ideologues of the movement were based abroad and did not belong to the segment of the community, which provided the foot-soldiers.
The objective of the insurgency was to carve out another theocratic state.
The same can be said about insurgencies in the Northeast (NE). They too were supported by China, but in a manner that the deniability factor could be maintained. A separate country was their objective and not the destruction of the Indian state. The acts of terrorism in these insurgencies were to intimidate the local populace and preempt any support to the security forces.
Over the years, there is fusion of insurgency and terrorism. It first took the shape of proxy war with territorial objectives. Therefore, when the Indian Security establishment was faced with the Kargil misadventure, it initially appeared bewildered because it could not appreciate that a low-intensity conflict could assume the shape of a conflict, which was constricted in limit and scope due to internal and external considerations and pressures.
The overall military superiority that India enjoyed vis-a-vis Pakistan could not deter the latter.
Convergence of Terror
The proxy war waged by Pakistan and China are now converging on Delhi. This proxy war has various terrorist groups as its main tool. The main instruments of this war are none other but some Indians who are allured by ideology or money or both.
They have been convinced that India in its present form is a demonic state and needs to be destroyed.
The Maoists, Pakistan based terrorist groups, and terrorist groups in Northeast, Punjab and J&K are now in collaboration. They have forged a nexus for training, procurement of arms, establishing external linkages and providing safe-havens to each other. They are leveraging on one another's strength and reach.
Their common objective is to destroy the Indian State.
When the Army Chief talks about a two-front situation, he must realize that India is already facing a multi-front situation in terms of proxy war being waged by China, Pakistan and other inimical powers. This multi-front proxy war is rendering the country hollow from within. The inimical elements within the country are debilitating both our military resolve and our conventional capability.
The security of a country is the harmony between internal security and external security. Pakistan is collapsing because it always viewed internal security from the prism of external security. India on the other hand has been notorious in ignoring the external dimensions of internal security problems and treating them as that of law and order.
If the Maoists, who are trampling the heart of India, and the Pak sponsored jihadis of Kashmir as well as terrorists groups in Punjab, and the China-backed insurgent groups of Northeast, who have been trying to severe the head and limbs respectively, are now acting in concert, the internal security situation is grim.
A Super Power like the Soviet Union with its massive military capability, col-lapsed because it could not harmonize internal security with external security. India must not repeat the mistake. The Indian Army must revisit its threat perception and the very definition of 'enemy'.
Joint terrorist training camps
The arrest of two Peoples' Liberation Army (PLA) leaders of Manipur Arun Kumar Singh and Dalip Singh in October 2011 exposed the emerging links between the militant organizations in the NE, Kashmir, LeT, and the Maoists. They revealed the ongoing effort on part of these groups to form a 'Strategic United Front' since they had the common objective to overthrow the Indian government.
They reckon that it is only collectively that they would be able to take on the might of the Indian State. They also revealed the plans of setting up a 'Joint Training Camp' in Myanmar. The Times of India on 08 October 2011 quoted official sources "ISI and PLA are in-touch and supply Maoists with arms. They are supposedly using China as the alternative route."
The official sources also claim to have photographic evidence of Maoist cadres from six Indian states being trained by the PLA of Manipur, in Orissa and Jharkhand.
This author has learnt through top intelligence sources that the Chinese have supplied a weapon manufacturing facility to the Kachin Insurgents in Myanmar. This facility is manufacturing replicas of AK-47, which is being supplied to all terrorist groups in India including the Maoists.
The latest recovery of explosives from a car on 12 October 2011 has also exposed the links between ISI, Lashkar-e-Toiba and Babbar Khalsa. Their objective was to target Delhi.
Taking into consideration, the seizures made by the security forces in the last few years, two important facts emerge - first, that Babbar Khalsa, the militant outfit, which carried out the killing of the Punjab Chief Minister Beant Singh has been under the revival mode, under the patronage of ISI, and second, that the organization has no dearth of sophisticated arms and explosives supplied by the ISI.
The revival of Babbar Khalsa and Khalistan insurgency received impetus after the creation of the Pakistan Gurudwara Prabhandhak Committee under the Chairmanship of Lt Gen Javed Nassir, former ISI chief. He is instrumental in forging the link between LeT and the Babbar Khalsa.
In October 2010, the Indian government had alleged that the Maoists of Nepal (PLA) had been imparting training to Indian Maoists on Nepal's soil. Further, the Maoists were receiving training from LeT instructors in these camps. There was information of 234 Maoists training in Nepal under the supervision of Naxalite leaders like Vinod Gurung, Prakash Mehto and LeT members like Razak Khan and Latif Khan, who hail from Karachi. In August 2010, Karnataka and Andhra Police, following four arrests in Hyderabad and two in Bangalore that the ISI through the 'D-company' had managed to establish links with the Maoists terrorists in the country. There were plans to invite Maoist leaders to Dubai to coordinate terrorist activities in India.
The spearheads of the modern terror network are people, who enjoy or have been conferred respectability by way of international awards or member-ship of NGOs ostensibly engaged in public cause. Some of these ideologues are active in forging links between various military groups. A noted Human Right activist, based on telephonic intercepts, has come under the scanner of intelligence agencies for trying to bring together various terrorist groups at the behest of Pakistan.
Even in the national capital the ideologues of the Maoists, Kashmiri and NE separatists have come together on a common platform on many occasions.
Their agenda is common, i.e. to weaken the resolve of the Indian State to fight terrorism. It is in this backdrop that their diatribes against the state, the security forces, and the Armed Forces Special Power Act should be viewed. This Act, they feel is the most robust tool in preserving the unity of India.
The Maoist agenda
It is pertinent to note that when Anna's agitation was at its peak, the eternal fast of Sharmila Irom of Manipur, was consistently highlighted. The focus was not she, but the removal of Armed Forces Special Power Act from Manipur.
One of the active members during the agitation is known for his ULFA links. During the same period, the so-called Lawyer civil activist and core member of the Team Anna, in one of the television channels, had categorically stated that the days of elected representatives are over, thereby implying that the India must jettison multiparty democracy.
He was only articulating the Maoist agenda. He also had then spoken that it is the Kashmiris who should decide whether they want to be part of India or not. Such was the hysteria during that period that these statements were lost in the din and did not receive adequate attention. The same gentleman has now advocated plebiscite in Kashmir and repealing of the Armed Forces Special Power Act.
One of the members of the Team of interlocutors on Kashmir has enjoyed the hospitality of Fai Foundation, headed by Syed Ghulam Nabi Fai the face of the Kashmir separatist cause in the United States. The Fai Foundation is funded by the ISI. It was a foregone conclusion that the team of interlocutors would recommend more autonomy for Kashmir. The timing of the submission of the report and utterances of the lawyer is not a mere coincidence.
The most formidable spearheads for convergence of terror in India are there in the media and amongst people who fancy to be called as intellectuals. The 'terrorism economy' is also formidable and has the ability to sustain some big media houses and other public platforms. They decry the Indian State, but 'Misuse the Freedom of Speech'.
The entire region in the surround of India is in unprecedented geopolitical flux. The US-Pakistan strategic partnership, which ensured the survivability of the latter since its inception is now under tremendous strain, arguably on the verge of collapse.
The internal problems of Pakistan seem to be intractable. The specter of the country's split is haunting. Pakistan's strategic maneuver space is getting increasingly constricted. The conventional tools available in the hands of Pakistan in leadership to alter the dangerous geopolitical discourse are in disarray or blunted.
It is not India, but Pakistan's machinations in Kashmir and Afghanistan, which has brought the country to this juncture. The emerging strategic partnership between India and the US, and India and Afghanistan has unnerved a tottering Pakistan. The only recourse available to Pakistan is to destabilize India by leveraging on all terrorist groups, i.e. the Maoists, who are active in one- third of India, and the terrorist groups in Kashmir, Punjab, Northeast, and Pak based terrorist groups and crime syndicate of the Dawood Ibrahim.
In this there is a congruency of interests between Pakistan and China. China too is not comfortable with the Indo-US strategic partnership and consequently the direction of the geopolitical discourse in the region. It has very high strategic stakes in Pakistan as well as in the Indian Ocean, particularly in the Bay of Bengal, where it is seeking presence by way of ports on Myanmar's western coast for convenient supply of oil from Gulf for its energy needs.
It is for this reason that China is engaged in thwarting India's 'Look East' outreach by increasingly brazen sup-port to Northeast terrorist groups and the Maoists.
Economic consequences
The convergence of Pakistan and China backed terror and spearheaded by the ideologues has dangerous portends for India. While the aim of this terror is to paralyze India, its main focus is shifting to its heart, i.e. the National Capital. In all probability terrorist attacks in India are likely to become more vicious, more deadly, more wide-spread and more frequent.
This proxy war has disastrous economic consequences. There is a thriving parallel terrorist economy. The Maoists are disrupting train services at will. Bandhs orchestrated by Maoists are having crippling effect on the economy and the livelihood of the people.
Corporate houses are paying ransom to the Maoists because the State cannot enforce its writ in large chunks of the hinterland. The Maoists menace is making thermal power plants starve for coal. India is becoming a dangerous place on this earth. Investors are being deterred. The Indian state machinery has become inured to the insecurity of the people. It probably feels that time itself will resolve the problem. The internal war against terror is being fought in a disjointed and half-hearted manner. The resolve mechanism and instruments to fight this convergence of terror is in disarray.
If this war is not won, India despite its conventional war-making capability, will collapse. We are fighting the war with wrong tools, wrong mindset, and misplaced ideas of war, oscillating between law and order approach and internal security approach. While there is convergence of various terrorist groups, the Indian authorities have a compartmentalized approach on the specious argument of federalism.
It's a war and given its import and spread, the internal enemies can only be defeated, if the Indian Army is in the forefront.
The writer is a former military intelligence officer who later served in the Research and Analysis Wing, or R&AW. The author of two books: Asian Strategic and Military Perspective and Military Factor in Pakistan, he is also Associate Editor, Indian Defence Review.
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