We need a master plan to increase our water storage capacity, improve irrigation facilities and create water networks across the country that links the draught prone with those experiencing floods. Water is one crucial factor that sustains life on earth. Yet we take water for granted unless of course reminded of its importance by Bollywood actors celebrating water-less Holi. India is estimated to have a mere 4 per cent of global water resources, while it has to support 16 per cent of the world’s population. Merely by that equation India is water stressed if not water starved.
Billion Cubic Metres (BCM) of which three-fourth get precipitated during the monsoon season (June to September). Of this 4000 BCM, it is estimated that approximately 1120 BCM are only utilisable. That in turn adds to the stress. When rains fail, this situation gets compounded. For instance, the rainfall in 2009 in India was a mere 78 percent of the long-term average rainfall. A 22 per cent shortfall is disastrous in such a situation. Coincidentally the UPA under Manmohan Singh was reelected only in May 2009. Was Mother Nature warning us?
Similarly in 2012 we faced “drought like” situations in several parts of India as rainfall was 92 per cent of the long term average. This brings in another dimension to our water crisis. When it rains, it pours during the monsoon. For instance in 2012 nearly 58 per cent districts recorded excess rain causing flood (the balance 42 per cent face moderate to severe shortfall).
It is in this connection that the National Water Policy notes that the availability of water is highly uneven in both space and time. Precipitation is confined to only about three or four months in a year and varies from 100 mm in the western parts of Rajasthan to over 10,000 mm at Cherrapunji in Meghalaya. No wonder India alternates between floods in some part and drought in other. The challenge is to link the two.
That takes me to the Budget of 2004-05 where finance minister P Chidambaram said, “I now turn to one of my big dreams. Water is the lifeline of civiliyation. We have been warned that the biggest crisis that the world will face in the 21st century will be the crisis of water.
“And his response to this “crisis?” “I therefore propose an ambitious scheme. Through the ages, Indian agriculture has been sustained by natural and man made water bodies such as lakes, tanks, ponds and similar structures. It has been estimated that there are more than a million such structures and about 500,000 are used for irrigation. Many of them have fallen into disuse. Many of them have accumulated silt. Many require urgent repairs.”
Absolutely spot on I thought.In fact his proposal captured the imagination of the entire nation then. Proposing to launch “a massive scheme to repair, renovate and restore all the water bodies that are directly linked to agriculture” the FM sought to begin “with pilot projects in at least five districts” one district in each of the five regions of the country.
And once the pilot projects were completed and validated, the government was to “launch the National Water Resources Development Project and complete it over a period of 7 to 10 years.” In conclusion, the FM added “It is my hope that by the beginning of the next decade all water bodies in India will be restored to their original glory and that the storage capacity of these water bodies will be augmented by at least 100 per cent.”
Once again in his Budget speech of 2005-06 the FM visited the subject albeit briefly. The zest that was palpable the previous year was missing. The grand announcement of July 2004 for a pilot project when the Budget was presented was still on the drawing board and expected to be “launched in the month of March 2005.”
That was the last time I heard of the FM speak of his “big dream.” The promise made almost a decade ago on the floor of the Parliament on augmenting the storage capacity of water bodies “by at-least 100 per cent” remains unfulfilled even to this day. So much for government’s concern for farmers, agriculture and creating basic rural infrastructure!
Now to the second leg of the water problem – the need for irrigation facility as delivery mechanism. Once again the FM was spot on with his diagnosis. “The Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme (AIBP) was introduced in 1996-97 and was allotted large funds year after year. Yet, out of 178 large and medium irrigation projects that were identified, only 28 have been completed.” Therefore the UPA government came with a practical proposal to “restructure” AIBP by ensuring “truly last mile projects that can be completed by March 2005 will be given overriding priority, and other projects that can be completed by March 2006 will also be taken up in the current year.”
Well did the government restructure AIBP? The answer lies in the Budget speech of Mr Pranab Mukherjee of 2012 where he adds, “To maximize the flow of benefits from investments in irrigation projects, structural changes in AIBP are being made.” Readers may note the change in semantics: “restructure AIBP” of 2005 had become “structural changes in AIBP” by 2012!
Despite all the bluster of the FM in his Budget, the fact remains that the irrigated land as a percentage to total agricultural land in India has improved marginally between 31.6 per cent in 2004 to approximately 37 per cent in 2011. This eloquently captures the neglect of irrigation in India by UPA to this date.
It is in this connection that a target of creating an additional “irrigation potential” of 10 million hectares (mha) between 2005-06 and 2008-09 was fixed. Interestingly, data with the ministry of water resources claim that the government “achieved” a physical target of 7.3 mha.
How much of this was “actually” achieved and resulted in improving farm production is anybody’s guess. Yet till 2012 since its inception in 1996 the AIBP has an outlay in excess of Rs 55,000 crores either as central grant or loans. While the sums do indeed look massive the fact remains the overall accretion to agriculture lands under irrigation has not improved significantly. Pointing to this anomaly Harish Damodaran in a well researched article in The Hindu Business Line pointed out (March 6, 2007) despite the Centre spending a total of Rs 20,598.48 crore (Rs 205.98 billion) under the AIBP, with the states releasing an additional Rs 15,000 crore (Rs 150 billion) or so since its inception in 1996.
So how much of new “irrigation potential” has been created under the AIBP? According to Harish Damodaran, “The cumulative figure from 1995-96 to 2005-06 comes to 4.04 mha, with another 0.9 mha estimated to be creat- ed this fiscal. All that adds to some five mha over a 11-year span.” While the physical accretion is minimal the amount spent on AIBP is indeed gargantuan. It is in this connection the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) in its Report No. 15 of 2004 (Civil) commented among other things, it noted that over 35 of the expenditures under AIBP were “diverted, parked or misutilised.”
In short, as the joke goes amongst economists, AIBP is neither accelerated nor does it benefit farmers. At best it is yet another avenue for loot and scoot. That explains why states like Maharashtra despite having several such irrigation schemes, funded both by the state and central government, is perennially water starved. And that would include Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Orissa amongst others.
This in turn leads to farm stress and resultant suicides which in turn trigger another round of committees, reports, schemes, programs and once again loot. It may be noted that India is experiencing its fourth drought in a dozen years. Needless to emphasize, this raises concerns about the reliability of the country’s primary source of fresh water, the monsoon rains. Scientists warn that such trends are likely to intensify in the coming decades because of climate changes caused by the human release of greenhouse gases.
India with large sections of poor is extremely vulnerable to such weather patterns. We need huge quantities of food to feed our population. For that we require water. So would our industry which is expected to grow exponentially. Weather patterns show remarkable departure from the past if it is drought in one part of the country we will have floods. Either way it is a disaster.
Ideally we need a master plan to increase our water storage capacity, improve irrigation facilities and create water networks across the country that links the draught prone with those experiencing floods. Unfortunately the decade of UPA rule, like so many other spheres been a disaster on water management too. Will someone tell the PM that we can have a water-less Holi but not water-less agriculture? Will someone educate the PM that a sustainable development model depends on something as elementary but as crucial as water. For too long we have ignored this fundamental fact. The water-less Holi was a rude wake up call.
– OE News Bureau
In order to attract more international students to Japan, The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (MEXT) launched the “Global 30” Project for Establishing Core Universities for Internationalization and select- ed 13 universities to function as core institutions to receive and educate students from abroad. Under the Project, a student can obtain a degree from a prestigious Japanese university by taking programs taught in English, both in undergraduate and graduate levels.
To promote the Project and recruit prospective students, we are advertizing our newly established English courses abroad. Universities under the “Global 30” Project include Tohoku University, University of Tsukuba, The University of Tokyo, Nagoya University, Kyoto University, Osaka University, Kyushu University, Keio University, Sophia University, Meiji University, Waseda University, Doshisha University, and Ritsumeikan University (13 universities total).
Contents of the Seminars included.
(1) Presentations by the “Global 30” Project universities. Universities involved in the “Global 30” Project present brief overviews concerning their education systems, programs, admission procedures, etc.
(2) Lecture demonstrations – We hope participants will actively join in the lectures given by professors of the “Global 30” Project universities.
(3) Individual consultation For questions concerning educational systems and programs, admission procedures, characteristics, etc., the “Global 30? Project universities will have booths for advice and to answer questions of participants who intend to study in Japan. Japan Student Services Organization (JASSO) booth will broadly inform participants about Study in Japan.
List of Universities participating in Delhi (India) /Bangalore (India) included:- ” Tohoku University, University of Tsukuba, The University of Tokyo, Kyoto University, Osaka University, Kyushu University, Keio University, Sophia University (Bangalore only), Meiji University, Doshisha University, and Ritsumeikan University Japan Student Services Organization(JASSO)
‘Higher Education is Japan core strength that made it a global technology super power’
The iconic face of India in Japan is former Indian Ambassador to Japan Mr Aftab Seth who is playing the role of a catalyst to bridge the gap between unexplored land of opportunity for the Indian Gen-Next. Mr Seth highlights the tremendous depth of Japanese core strength that is yet to be tapped in India Higher education. Here are some of the most fascinating excerpts of his interview with Opinion Express associate editor Dr Rahul Misra.
Q Japan higher education system has been close knit hence globally people are unaware of its merits, kindly enlighten us about the cost factor, and Work culture of Japanese Universities?A. From the time of the Meiji restoration in 1868 the Japanese university system was opened to the world. As the first university was Keio, set up in 1858, 10 years university was Keio, set up in 1858, 10 years before the restoration, it was deeply influenced by knowledge acquired by the founder Yukichi Fukuzawa from the Dutch in Nagasaki in Kyushu. As other universities were set up in 1870s by the Imperial government they depended greatly on professors from the west, USA Britain and for medicine from Germany. Till the early 60s all medical students had to learn German because of the text books. It is thus not quite accurate to call the Japanese university system closed. It became like this later, but the early years were of openness.
So much so, that Tenshin Okakura an art historian and friend of Tagore, was able to write a book on Japanese tea in English and a play the “Silver Fox” in English directly. The xenophobia and hostility towards foreign influences was a product of the military dominated politics of the 20s and 30s and during the war till 1945. Under the American occupation from 1945 to 1952 all institutions including educational ones underwent reform to purge ideas which smacked of the Fascist interwar years. Universities were again open to foreign influence and to student exchanges. Japanese universities as a general rule offer high class education at a price which is less than private universities in the USA. State universities in Japan tend to be reasonable com- pared to top private ones like Keio or Waseda founded by Okuma Shigenobu in 1888.
Q. Japan is center of great cutting edge technologies, R&D labs etc. It is associated with several hi-ttech products and services yet its Universities are not internationally known brands, why?
A. The reason that Universities in Japan are less well known abroad is because of several factors. Japanese universities may not be known in India or the west but in China and the South East they have been well known since 1895 when Japan defeated China and in 1905 defeated Imperial Russia.
Several leading Chinese intellectuals like Sun Yat Sen studied in Japan and were influenced by Japanese ideas. Nationalist leaders of Vietnam struggling against French colonial rule established in the 1880s were deeply inspired by the Russo Japanese war. Phan Boi Chau one such leader traveled to Japan seeking help. Leaders such as Okuma and Inukai gave help by inviting 100 young Vietnamese boys to study at Japanese universities. Japanese technology has been known even before the war in East Asia. Korea a colony of Japan from 1910 to 1945 also had many generations of students who were educated in Japan. It is correct that top places like the Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo University, Keio University with excellent R&D faculties are not well known abroad.
Q. English language is a deterrent to study in Japan?
A. The English language has been a deterrent so far. But this is changing. The Japanese have a complex about their inability to master alien tongues. Slowly but surely this changing and Japanese are acquiring huge skills in learning English language.
Q. 4. Group 30 Universities from Japan recently established an office in India to attract Indian students to Japan, why this initiative is taken at this time? What road map and benefits shall be made to Indian students intending to go to overseas destinations with this initiative?
A. The G-30 initiative by PM Fukuda in 2008 is aimed at increasing the number of foreign students in Japan from the present 130000 to 300000 by 2012. The Ritsumeikan office established in October 2010 at the Japan Foundation building is part of this initiative. Waseda has an office in Vietnam and other Universities have been given responsibility for other territories. As part of this work we helped the G30 in January 2011 to invite students from top schools in Delhi and other cities to attend a seminar addressed by the representatives of leading Japanese universities. I inaugurated this seminar. The purpose is to attract young talent to study in Japan. The benefit Indian students would derive from such study are explained at such seminars. To make it easier some universities like Keio have started English medium classes at the Fujisawa campus which teaches all high tech subjects such as IT, Energy, environmental science and others. Keio has a separate initiative GIGA which aims to attract bright youth to study at the undergraduate level. Post graduate schools in many leading universities have been conducting their classes in English for some years now. This is a trend that is growing.
Q. Any synergies that are possible between private universities between India and Japan with this Group 30 University consortium?
A. PM Abe in 2007 organised the first University Vice Chancellors conference in Delhi to bring together leaders of 12 top universities in both countries. The conference which I attended, as the international adviser to Keio which was the Japanese Co Chairman with the UGC Chairman on the Indian side, led to Keio signing MOUs with 11 top Indian universities including 5 IITs. The synergy between our institutions was well demonstrated by this event.
– OE News Bureau
In the early 1930s, when we were born, the world population was just 2 billion; now it is more than two and a half times as large and still growing rapidly. The population of the United States is increasing much more slowly than the world average, but it has more than doubled in only six decades -- from 120 million in 1928 to 250 million in 1990. Such a huge population expansion within two or three generations can by itself account for a great many changes in the social and economic institutions of a society. It also is very frightening to those of us who spend our lives trying to keep track of the implications of the population explosion.
This sequel to Paul Ehrlich's 1968 landmark bestseller The Population Bomb examines the critical choices we face today and proposes an agenda for the 1990s to avoid global ecocide. The Population Explosion vividly describes how the Earth's population, growing by 95 million people a year, is rapidly depleting the planet's resources, resulting in famine, global warming, acid rain, and other major problems. Paul and Anne Ehrlich also clearly and concisely point to immediate action that will lessen the threat of ruin and begin to build a more peaceful, sane, and secure world.
A SLOW START
One of the toughest things for a population biologist to reconcile is the contrast between his or her recognition that civilization is in imminent serious jeopardy and the modest level of concern that population issues generate among the public and even among elected officials.
Much of the reason for this discrepancy lies in the slow development of the problem. People aren't scared because they evolved biologically and culturally to respond to short-term "fires" and to tune out long-term "trends" over which they had no control. Only if we do what doesn't come naturally -- if we determinedly focus on what seem to be gradual or nearly imperceptible changes -- can the outlines of our predicament be perceived clearly enough to be frightening.
Our own species, Homo sapiens, evolved a few hundred thousand years ago. Some ten thousand years ago, when agriculture was invented, probably no more than five million people inhabited Earth -- fewer than now live in the San Francisco Bay Area. Even at the time of Christ, two thousand years ago, the entire human population was roughly the size of the population of the United States today; by 1650 there were only 500 million people and in 1850 only a little over a billion. Since there are now well past 5 billion people, the vast majority of the population explosion has taken place in less than a tenth of one percent of the history of Homo sapiens.
This is a remarkable change in the abundance of a single species. After an unhurried pace of growth over most of our history, the expansion of the population accelerated during the Industrial Revolution and really shot up after 1950. Since the mid-century, the human population has been growing at annual rates ranging from about 1.7 to 2.1 percent per year, doubling in forty years or less. Some groups have grown significantly faster; the population of the African nation of Kenya^ was estimated to be increasing by over 4 percent annually during the 1980s -- a rate that if continued would double the nation's population in only seventeen years. That rate did continue for over a decade and only recently has shown slight signs of slowing. Meanwhile, other nations, such as those of northern Europe, have grown much more slowly in recent decades.
But even the highest growth rates are still slow-motion changes compared to events we easily notice and react to. A car swerving at us on the highway is avoided by actions taking a few
DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS
Ten Most Populous Countries
Population: 1,338,612,968 (Excluding Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Macau)
Percentage of World Population: 19.6
Did you know?
Population: 1,163,408,098
Percentage of World Population: 17.1
Did you know?
Population: 300,009,000
Percentage of World Population: 4.4
Demographic Facts:
Population: 230,168,000
Percentage of World Population: 3.4
Did you know?
Population: 191,109,937
Percentage of World population: 2.8
Did you know?
Population: 176,242,949
Percentage of World Population: 2.6
Did you know?
Population: 156,050,883
Percentage of World Population: 2.3
Did you know?
Population: 148,093,000
Percentage of World Population: 2.2
Did you know?
Population: 141,824,280
Percentage of World Population: 2.1
Did you know?
Population: 127,078,679
Percentage of World Population: 1.9
Did you know?
This sequel to Paul Ehrlich's 1968 landmark bestseller The Population Bomb examines the critical choices we face today and proposes an agenda for the 1990s to avoid global ecocide.
The Population Explosion vividly describes how the Earth's population, growing by 95 million people a year, is rapidly depleting the planet's resources, resulting in famine, global warming, acid rain, and other major problems. Paul and Anne Ehrlich also clearly and concisely point to immediate action that will lessen the threat of ruin and begin to build a more peaceful, sane, and secure world.
A SLOW START
One of the toughest things for a population biologist to reconcile is the contrast between his or her recognition that civilization is in imminent serious jeopardy and the modest level of concern that population issues generate among the public and even among elected officials.
Much of the reason for this discrepancy lies in the slow development of the problem. People aren't scared because they evolved biologically and culturally to respond to short-term "fires" and to tune out long-term "trends" over which they had no control. Only if we do what doesn't come naturally -- if we determinedly focus on what seem to be gradual or nearly imperceptible changes -- can the outlines of our predicament be perceived clearly enough to be frightening.
Our own species, Homo sapiens, evolved a few hundred thousand years ago. Some ten thousand years ago, when agriculture was invented, probably no more than five million people inhabited Earth -- fewer than now live in the San Francisco Bay Area. Even at the time of Christ, two thousand years ago, the entire human population was roughly the size of the population of the United States today; by 1650 there were only 500 million people and in 1850 only a little over a billion. Since there are now well past 5 billion people, the vast majority of the population explosion has taken place in less than a tenth of one percent of the history of Homo sapiens.
This is a remarkable change in the abundance of a single species. After an unhurried pace of growth over most of our history, the expansion of the population accelerated during the Industrial Revolution and really shot up after 1950. Since the mid-century, the human population has been growing at annual rates ranging from about 1.7 to 2.1 percent per year, doubling in forty years or less. Some groups have grown significantly faster; the population of the African nation of Kenya was estimated to be increasing by over 4 percent annually during the 1980s -- a rate that if continued would double the nation's population in only seventeen years. That rate did continue for over a decade and only recently has shown slight signs of slowing. Meanwhile, other nations, such as those of northern Europe, have grown much more slowly in recent decades.
But even the highest growth rates are still slow-motion changes compared to events we easily notice and react to. A car swerving at us on the highway is avoided by actions taking a few seconds. The Alaskan oil spill caused great public indignation but faded from the media and the consciousness of most people in a few months. America's participation in World War II spanned less than four years. During the last four years, even Kenya's population grew by only about 16 percent--a change hardly perceptible locally, let alone from a distance. In four years, the world population expands only a little more than 7 percent. Who could notice that? Precipitous as the population explosion has been in historical terms, it is occurring at a snail's pace in an individual's perception. It is not an event, it is a trend that must be analyzed in order for its significance to be appreciated.
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
The time it takes a population to double in size is a dramatic way to picture rates of population growth, one that most of us can understand more readily than percentage growth rates. Human populations have often grown in a pattern described as "exponential." Exponential growth occurs in bank accounts when interest is left to accumulate and earns interest. Exponential growth occurs in populations because children, the analog of interest, remain in the population and themselves have children.
A key feature of exponential growth is that it often seems to start slowly and finish fast. A classic example used to illustrate this is the pondweed that doubles each day the amount of pond surface covered and is projected to cover the entire pond in thirty days. The question is, how much of the pond will be covered in twenty-nine days? The answer, of course, is that just half of the pond will be covered in twenty-nine days. The weed will then double once more and cover the entire pond the next day. As this example indicates, exponential growth contains the potential for big surprises.
The limits to human population growth are more difficult to perceive than those restricting the pond weed's growth. Nonetheless, like the pondweed, human populations grow in a pattern that is essentially exponential, so we must be alert to the treacherous properties of that sort of growth. The key point to remember is that a long history of exponential growth in no way implies a long future of exponential growth. What begins in slow motion may eventually overwhelm us in a flash.
The last decade or two has seen a slight slackening in the human population growth rate -- a slackening that has been prematurely heralded as an "end to the population explosion." The slowdown has been only from a peak annual growth rate of perhaps 2.1 percent in the early 1960s to about 1.8 percent in 1990. To put this change in perspective, the population's doubling time has been extended from thirty-three years to thirty-nine. Indeed, the world population did double in the thirty-seven years from 1950 to 1987. But even if birth rates continue to fall, the world population will continue to expand (assuming that death rates don't rise), although at a slowly slackening rate, for about another century. Demographers think that growth will not end before the population has reached 10 billion or more.
So, even though birth rates have declined somewhat, Homo sapiens is a long way from ending its population explosion or avoiding its consequences. In fact, the biggest jump, from 5 to 10 billion in well under a century, is still ahead. But this does not mean that growth couldn't be ended sooner, with much smaller population size, if we -- all of the world's nations -- made up our minds to do it. The trouble is, many of the world's leaders and perhaps most of the world's people still don't believe that there are compelling reasons to do so. They are even less aware that if humanity fails to act, nature may end the population explosion for us -- in very unpleasant ways -- well before 10 billion is reached.
Those unpleasant ways are beginning to be perceptible. Humanity in the 1990s will be confronted by more and more intransigent environmental problems, global problems dwarfing those that worried us in the late 1960s. Perhaps the most serious is that of global warming, a problem caused in large part by population growth and overpopulation. It is not clear whether the severe drought in North America, the Soviet Union, and China in 1988 was the result of the slowly rising surface temperature of Earth, but it is precisely the kind of event that climatological models predict as more and more likely with continued global warming. In addition to more frequent and more severe crop failures, projected consequences of the warming include coastal flooding, desertification, the creation of as many as 300 million environmental refugees, alteration of patterns of dis-ease, water shortages, general stress on natural ecosystems, and synergistic interactions among all these factors.
Continued population growth and the drive for development in already badly overpopulated poor nations will make it exceedingly difficult to slow the greenhouse warming -- and impossible to stop or reverse it -- in this generation at least. And, even if the warming should miraculously not occur, contrary to accepted projections, human numbers are on a collision course with massive famines anyway.
MAKING THE POPULATION CONNECTION
Global warming, acid rain, depletion of the ozone layer, vulnerability to epidemics, and exhaustion of soils and groundwater are all, as we shall see, related to population size. They are also clear and present dangers to the persistence of civilization. Crop failures due to global warming alone might result in the premature deaths of a billion or more people in the next few decades, and the AIDS epidemic could slaughter hundreds of millions. Together these would constitute a harsh "population control" program provided by nature in the face of humanity's refusal to put into place a gentler program of its own. We shouldn't delude ourselves: the population explosion will come to an end before very long. The only remaining question is whether it will be halted through the humane method of birth control, or by nature wiping out the surplus. We realize that religious and cultural opposition to birth control exists throughout the world, but we believe that people simply don't understand the choice that such opposition implies. Today, anyone opposing birth control is unknowingly voting to have the human population size controlled by a massive increase in early deaths.
Of course, the environmental crisis isn't caused just by expanding human numbers. Burgeoning consumption among the rich and increasing dependence on ecologically unsound technologies to supply that consumption also play major parts. This allows some environmentalists to dodge the population issue by emphasizing the problem of malign technologies. And social commentators can avoid commenting on the problem of too many people by focusing on the serious maldistribution of affluence.
But scientists studying humanity's deepening predicament recognize that a major factor contributing to it is rapidly worsening overpopulation. The Club of Earth, a group whose members all belong to both the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, released a statement in September 1988 that said in part: Arresting global population growth should be second in importance only to avoiding nuclear war on humanity's agenda. Overpopulation and rapid population growth are intimately connected with most aspects of the current human predicament, including rapid depletion of nonrenewable resources, deterioration of the environment (including rapid climate change), and increasing international tensions.
But even in that narrow context, the assertion is wrong. Suppose food was distributed equally. If everyone in the world ate as Americans do, less than half the present world population could be fed on the record harvests of 1985 and 1986.
Of course, everyone doesn't have to eat like Americans.
About a third of the world's grain harvest -- the staples of the human feeding base -- is fed to animals to produce eggs, milk, and meat for American-style diets. Wouldn't feeding that grain directly to people solve the problem? If everyone were willing to eat an essentially vegetarian diet, that additional grain would allow perhaps a billion more people to be fed with 1986 production.
Would such radical changes solve the world food problem? Only in the very short term. An additional billion people are slated to be with us by the end of the century. Moreover, by the late 1980s, humanity already seemed to be encountering trouble maintaining the production levels of the mid-1980s, let alone keeping up with population growth. The world grain harvest in 1988 was some 10 percent below that of 1986. And there is little sign that the rich are about to give up eating animal products.
So there is no reasonable way that the hunger problem can be called "only" one of distribution, even though redistribution of food resources would greatly alleviate hunger today. Unfortunately, an important truth, that mal-distribution is a cause of hunger now, has been used as a way to avoid a more important truth -- that overpopulation is critical today and may well make the distribution question moot tomorrow.
The food problem, however, attracts little immediate concern among well-fed Americans, who have no reason to be aware of its severity or extent. But other evidence that could make everyone face up to the seriousness of the population dilemma is now all around us since problems to which overpopulation and population growth make major contributions are worsening at a rapid rate. They often appear on the evening news, although the population connection is almost never made.
Consider the television pictures of barges loaded with garbage wandering like The Flying Dutchman across the seas, and news stories about "no room at the dump." They are showing the results of the interaction between too many affluent people and the environmentally destructive technologies that support that affluence. Growing opportunities to swim in a mixture of sewage and medical debris off American beaches can be traced to the same source. Starving people in sub-Saharan Africa are victims of drought, defective agricultural policies, and overpopulation of both people and domestic animals -- with warfare often dealing the final blow. All of the above are symptoms of humanity's massive and growing negative impact on Earth's life-support systems.
RECOGNIZING THE POPULATION PROBLEM
The average person, even the average scientist, seldom makes the connection between such seemingly disparate events and the population problem, and thus remains unworried. To a degree, this failure to put the pieces together is due to a taboo against frank discussion of the population crisis in many quarters, a taboo generated partly by pressures from the Catholic hierarchy and partly by other groups who are afraid that dealing with population is-sues will produce socially damaging results.
Many people on the political left are concerned that focusing on overpopulation will divert attention from crucial problems of social justice (which certainly need to be addressed in addition to the population problem). Often those on the political right fear that dealing with overpopulation will encourage abortion (it need not) or that halting growth will severely damage the economy (it could, if not handled properly). And people of varied political persuasions who are unfamiliar with the magnitude of the population problem believe in a variety of farfetched technological fixes -- such as colonizing outer space -- that they think will allow the need for regulating the size of the human population to be avoided forever.
Even the National Academy of Sciences avoided mentioning controlling human numbers in its advice to President Bush on how to deal with global environmental change. Although Academy members who are familiar with the issue are well aware of the critical population component of that change, it was feared that all of the Academy's advice would be ignored if recommendations were included about a subject taboo in the Bush administration. That strategy might have been correct, considering Bush's expressed views on abortion and considering the administration's weak appointments in many environmentally sensitive positions. After all, the Office of Management and Budget even tried to suppress an expert evaluation of the potential seriousness of global warming by altering the congressional testimony of a top NASA scientist, James Hansen, to conform with the administration's less urgent view of the problem.
All of us naturally lean toward the taboo against dealing with population growth. The roots of our aversion to limiting the size of the human population are as deep and pervasive as the roots of human sexual behavior. Through billions of years of evolution, our reproducing other members of your population was the name of the game. It is the very basis of natural selection, the driving force of the evolutionary process. Nonetheless, the taboo must be uprooted and discarded.
OVERCOMING THE TABOO
There is no more time to waste; in fact, there wasn't in 1968 when The Population Bomb was published. Human inaction has already condemned hundreds of millions more people to premature deaths from hunger and disease. The population connection must be made in the public mind. Action to end the population explosion humanely and start a gradual population decline must become a top item on the human agenda: the human birth rate must be lowered to slightly below the human death rate as soon as possible. There still may be time to limit the scope of the impending catastrophe, but not much time. Ending the population ex-plosion by controlling births is necessarily a slow process. Only nature's cruel way of solving the problem is likely to be swift.
Of course, if we do wake up and succeed in controlling our population size, that will still leave us with all the other thorny problems to solve. Limiting human numbers will not alone end warfare, environmental deterioration, poverty, racism, religious prejudice, or sexism; it will just buy us the opportunity to do so. As the old saying goes, whatever your cause, it's a lost cause without population control.
America and other rich nations have a clear choice today. They can continue to ignore the population problem and their own massive contributions to it. Then they will be trapped in a downward spiral that may well lead to the end of civilization in a few decades. More frequent droughts, more damaged crops and famines, more dying forests, more smog, more international conflicts, more epidemics, more gridlock, more drugs, more crime, more sewage swimming, and other extreme unpleasantness will mark our course. It is a route already traveled by too many of our less fortunate fellow human beings.
Or we can change our collective minds and take the measures necessary to lower global birth rates dramatically. People can learn to treat growth as cancer like the disease it is and move toward a sustainable society. The rich can make helping the poor an urgent goal, instead of seeking more wealth and useless military advantage over one another. Then humanity might have a chance to manage all those other seemingly intractable problems. It is a challenging prospect, but at least it will give our species a shot at creating a decent future for itself. More immediately and concretely, taking action now will give our children and their children the possibility of decent lives.
All too often, overpopulation is thought of simply as crowding: too many people in a given area, too high a population density. For instance, the deputy editor in chief of Forbes magazine pointed out recently, in connection with a plea for more population growth in the United States: "If all the people from China and India lived in the continental U.S. (excluding Alaska), this country would still have a smaller population density than England, Holland, or Belgium."
The appropriate response is "So what?" Density is generally irrelevant to questions of overpopulation. For instance, if brute density were the criterion, one would have to conclude that Africa is "underpopulated," because it has only 55 people per square mile, while Europe (excluding the USSR) has 261 and Japan 857. A more sophisticated measure would take into consideration the amount of Africa not covered by desert or "impenetrable" forests. This more habitable portion is just a little over half the continent's area, giving an effective population density of 117 per square mile. That's still only about a fifth of that in the United Kingdom. Even by 2020, Africa's effective density is projected to grow to only about that of France today (266), and few people would consider France excessively crowded or overpopulated.
When people think of crowded countries, they usually contemplate places like the Netherlands (1,031 per square mile), Taiwan (1,604), or Hong Kong (14,218). Even those don't necessarily signal overpopulation--after all, the Dutch seem to be thriving, and doesn't Hong Kong have a booming economy and fancy hotels? In short, if density were the standard of overpopulation, few nations (and certainly not Earth itself) would be likely to be considered overpopulated in the near future. The error, we repeat, lies in trying to define overpopulation in terms of density; it has long been recognized that density per se means very little.
The key to understanding overpopulation is not population density but the number of people in an area relative to its resources and the capacity of the environment to sustain human activities; that is, to the area's carrying capacity. When is an area overpopulated? When its population can't be maintained without rapidly depleting nonrenewable resources (or converting renewable resources into nonrenewable ones) and without degrading the capacity of the environment to support the population. In short, if the long-term carrying capacity of an area is clearly being degraded by its current human occupants, that area is overpopulated.
By this standard, the entire planet and virtually every nation are already vastly overpopulated. Africa is overpopulated now because, among other indications, its soils and forests are rapidly being depleted and that implies that its carrying capacity for human beings will be lower in the future than it is now. The United States is overpopulated because it is depleting its soil and water resources and contributing mightily to the destruction of global environmental systems. Europe, Japan, the Soviet Union, and other rich nations are over-populated because of their massive contributions to the carbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere, among many other reasons. Almost all the rich nations are overpopulated because they are rapidly drawing down stocks of resources around the world. They don't live solely on the land in their own nations.... they are spending their capital with no thought for the future.
This "carrying capacity" definition of overpopulation is the one used in this book. It is important to understand that under this definition a condition of over-population might be corrected with no change in the number of people. For instance, the impact of today's 665 million Africans on their resources and environment theoretically might be reduced to the point where the continent would no longer be overpopulated. To see whether this would be possible, population growth would have to be stopped . . .
Similarly, dramatic changes in American lifestyle might suffice to end overpopulation in the United States without a large population reduction.
The iconic face of India in Japan is former Indian Ambassador to Japan Mr Aftab Seth who is playing the role of a catalyst to bridge the gap between unexplored land of opportunity for the Indian Gen-Next. Mr Seth highlights the tremendous depth of Japanese core strength that is yet to be tapped in India Higher education. Here are some of the most fascinating excerpts of his interview with Opinion Express associate editor Dr Rahul Misra.
Q Japan higher education system has been close knit hence globally people are unaware of its merits, kindly enlighten us about the cost factor, and Work culture of Japanese Universities?
A. From the time of the Meiji restoration in 1868 the Japanese university system was opened to the world. As the first university was Keio, set up in 1858, 10 years university was Keio, set up in 1858, 10 years before the restoration, it was deeply influenced by knowledge acquired by the founder Yukichi Fukuzawa from the Dutch in Nagasaki in Kyushu. As other universities were set up in 1870s by the Imperial government they depended greatly on professors from the west, USA Britain and for medicine from Germany. Till the early 60s all medical students had to learn German because of the text books. It is thus not quite accurate to call the Japanese university system closed. It became like this later, but the early years were of openness.
So much so, that Tenshin Okakura an art historian and friend of Tagore, was able to write a book on Japanese tea in English and a play the “Silver Fox” in English directly.
The xenophobia and hostility towards foreign influences was a product of the military dominated politics of the 20s and 30s and during the war till 1945. Under the American occupation from 1945 to 1952 all institutions including educational ones underwent reform to purge ideas which smacked of the Fascist interwar years. Universities were again open to foreign influence and to student exchanges.
This trend continues to grow.Japanese universities as a general rule offer high class education at a price which is less than private universities in the USA. State universities in Japan tend to be reasonable compared to top private ones like Keio or Waseda founded by Okuma Shigenobu in 1888.
Q. Japan is center of great cutting edge technologies, R&D labs etc. It is associated with several hi-tech products and services yet its Universities are not internationally known brands, why?
A. The reason that Universities in Japan are less well known abroad is because of several factors. Japanese universities may not be known in India or the west but in China and the South East they have been well known since 1895 when Japan defeated China and in 1905 defeated Imperial Russia.
Several leading Chinese intellectuals like Sun Yat Sen studied in Japan and were influenced by Japanese ideas. Nationalist leaders of Vietnam struggling against French colonial rule established in the 1880s were deeply inspired by the Russo Japanese war. Phan Boi Chau one such leader traveled to Japan seeking help. Leaders such as Okuma and Inukai gave help by inviting 100 young Vietnamese boys to study at Japanese universities. Japanese technology has been known even before the war in East Asia. Korea a colony of Japan from 1910 to 1945 also had many generations of students who were educated in Japan. It is correct that top places like the Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo University, Keio University with excellent R&D faculties are not well known abroad.
Q. English language is a deterrent to study in Japan?
A The English language has been a deterrent so far. But this is changing. The Japanese have a complex about their inability to master alien tongues. Slowly but surely this changing and Japanese are acquiring huge skills in learning English language.
Q. 4. Group 30 Universities from Japan recently established an office in India to attract Indian students to Japan, why this initiative is taken at this time? What road map and benefits shall be made to Indian students intending to go to overseas destinations with this initiative?
A. The G-30 initiative by PM Fukuda in 2008 is aimed at increasing the number of foreign students in Japan from the present 130000 to 300000 by 2012. The Ritsumeikan office established in October 2010 at the Japan Foundation building is part of this initiative. Waseda has an office in Vietnam and other Universities have been given responsibility for other territories.
As part of this work we helped the G30 in January 2011 to invite students from top schools in Delhi and other cities to attend a seminar addressed by the representatives of leading Japanese universities. I inaugurated this seminar. The purpose is to attract young talent to study in Japan. The benefit Indian students would derive from such study are explained at such seminars. To make it easier some universities like Keio have started English medium classes at the Fujisawa campus which teaches all high tech subjects such as IT, Energy, environmental science and others. Keio has a separate initiative GIGA which aims to attract bright youth to study at the undergraduate level. Post graduate schools in many leading universities have been conducting their classes in English for some years now. This is a trend that is growing.
Q. Any synergies that are possible between private universities between India and Japan with this Group 30 University consortium?
A. PM Abe in 2007 organised the first University Vice Chancellors conference in Delhi to bring together leaders of 12 top universities in both countries. The conference which I attended, as the international adviser to Keio which was the Japanese Co Chairman with the UGC Chairman on the Indian side, led to Keio signing MOUs with 11 top Indian universities including 5 IITs. The synergy between our institutions was well demonstrated by this event.
-BY OPINION EXPRESS
In order to attract more international students to Japan, The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (MEXT) launched the "Global 30" Project for Establishing Core Universities for Internationalization and selected 13 universities to function as core institutions to receive and educate students from abroad. Under the Project, a student can obtain a degree from a prestigious Japanese university by taking programs taught in English, both in undergraduate and graduate levels. To promote the Project and recruit prospective students, we are advertizing our newly established English courses abroad.
Universities under the "Global 30" Project include Tohoku University, University of Tsukuba, The University of Tokyo, Nagoya University, Kyoto University, Osaka University, Kyushu University, Keio University, Sophia University, Meiji University, Waseda University, Doshisha University, and Ritsumeikan University (13 universities total).
Contents of the Seminars included.
(1) Presentations by the "Global 30" Project universities.
Universities involved in the "Global 30" Project present brief overviews concerning their education systems, programs, admission procedures, etc.
(2) Lecture demonstrations
We hope participants will actively join in the lectures given by professors of the "Global 30" Project universities.
(3) Individual consultation
For questions concerning educational systems and programs, admission procedures, characteristics, etc., the "Global 30" Project universities will have booths for advice and to answer questions of participants who intend to study in Japan. Japan Student Services Organization (JASSO) booth will broadly inform participants about Study in Japan.
List of Universities participating in Delhi (India) /Bangalore (India) included:- " Tohoku University, University of Tsukuba, The University of Tokyo, Kyoto University, Osaka University, Kyushu University, Keio University, Sophia University (Bangalore only), Meiji University, Doshisha University, and Ritsumeikan University
Japan Student Services Organization(JASSO) university was Keio, set up in 1858, 10 years before the restoration, it was deeply influenced by knowledge acquired by the founder Yukichi Fukuzawa from the Dutch in Nagasaki in Kyushu. As other universities were set up in 1870s by the Imperial government they depended greatly on professors from the west, USA Britain and for medicine from Germany. Till the early 60s all medical students had to learn German because of the text books. It is thus not quite accurate to call the Japanese university system closed. It became like this later, but the early years were of openness.
So much so, that Tenshin Okakura an art historian and friend of Tagore, was able to write a book on Japanese tea in English and a play the "Silver Fox" in English directly. The xenophobia and hostility towards foreign influences was a product of the military dominated politics of the 20s and 30s and during the war till 1945. Under the American occupation from 1945 to 1952 all institutions including educational ones underwent reform to purge ideas which smacked of the Fascist interwar years. Universities were again open to foreign influence and to student exchanges.
This trend continues to grow.
Japanese universities as a general rule offer high class edu- cation at a price which is less than private universities in the USA. State universities in Japan tend to be reasonable compared to top private ones like Keio or Waseda founded by Okuma Shigenobu in 1888.
Several leading Chinese intellectuals like Sun Yat Sen studied in Japan and were influenced by Japanese ideas. Nationalist leaders of Vietnam struggling against French colonial rule established in the 1880s were deeply inspired by the Russo Japanese war. Phan Boi Chau one such leader travelled to Japan seeking help. Leaders such as Okuma and Inukai gave help by inviting 100 young Vietnamese boys to study at Japanese universities. Japanese technology has been known even before the war in East Asia. Korea a colony of Japan from 1910 to 1945 also had many generations of students who were educated in Japan. It is correct that top places like the Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo University, Keio University with excellent R&D faculties are not well known abroad.
A The English language has been a deterrent so far. But this is changing. The Japanese have a complex about their inability to master alien tongues. Slowly but surely this changing and Japanese are acquiring huge skills in learning English language.
Group 30 Universities from Japan recently established an office in India to attract Indian students to Japan, why this initiative is taken at this time? What road map and benefits shall be made to Indian students intending to go to overseas destinations with this initiative? The G-30 initiative by PM Fukuda in 2008 is aimed at increasing the number of foreign students in Japan from the present 130000 to 300000 by 2012. The Ritsumeikan office established in October 2010 at the Japan Foundation building is part of this initiative. Waseda has an office in Vietnam and other Universities have been given responsibility for other territories.
As part of this work we helped the G30 in January 2011 to invite students from top schools in Delhi and other cities to attend a seminar addressed by the representatives of leading Japanese universities. I inaugurated this seminar. The purpose is to attract young talent to study in Japan. The benefit Indian students would derive from such study are explained at such seminars. To make it easier some universities like Keio have started English medium classes at the Fujisawa campus which teaches all high tech subjects such as IT, Energy, environmental science and others. Keio has a separate initiative GIGA which aims to attract bright youth to study at the undergraduate level. Post graduate schools in many leading universities have been conducting their classes in English for some years now. This is a trend that is growing.
As India embarks on long-overdue reforms of its tertiary and professional education systems, including promotion of research culture in the universities, there is merit in diversifying the partners with whom it seeks deeper engagement in this area. India's increasing integration with the global economy, including emergence of Indian multi-nationals, also requires such diversification.
The US and the selected Commonwealth and European countries have been India's traditional partners in tertiary education and in innovation activities. While engagement with them should continue to be deepened, as is evident from ongoing India-US strategic dialogue, it is essential to accelerate such engagement with non-traditional countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Brazil. This column, however, focuses on the case for deepening tertiary education and research engagement with Japan. The recent assumption of office by Japan's new prime minister Naoto Kan and Japan's efforts to expand international linkages of its universities provide a favorable backdrop for intensifying such partnership with Japan.
There are two broad factors which necessitate such diversification. First, there has been increasing globalisation of research and development and innovation activities. Thus a recent survey by the National Science Foundation (NSF) of the US found that American manufacturers conduct about a fifth of their total R&D in other countries. Indeed, in several key sectors, such as motor vehicles, textile and apparel, and electrical equipment, the offshoring share exceeds 30%. While relevant data are not available, it is a reasonable presumption that such tendencies are also occurring concerning other major economic powers such as Japan, South Korea, and Germany.
Secondly, the current global economic crisis has diminished medium-term growth and employment prospects of the US, The European Union as a group, and the UK. India's rising share of working-age population to total population strongly suggests generation of livelihoods, including for increasingly educated workforce with high aspirations, as among the highest priorities. India therefore must explore all avenues for such employment generation. Non-traditional sources, which are rapidly ageing, with Japan and South Korea expected to register decline in absolute population, therefore represent an attractive opportunity.
India should therefore increasingly leverage on countries with strong global presence of technology-intensive companies, and excellent university system with close industry linkages. It is in the above context that India must intensify its efforts to engage Universities and research institutions in Japan, as well as R&D labs of Japanese corporations. Japan has increasingly emerged as among India's most important economic and strategic partners. It is also the largest bilateral provider of economic and technical assistance. Japan is globally recognised as a leader in many areas such as automotive engineering, life sciences, electronics, railways, solid waste management, and renewable energy. Its proven competitiveness is based on excellent universities, who have traditionally been engaged in close collaboration with industry, but whose international engagements have so far been limited.
This is however changing, with Universities introducing more courses in English, and actively seeking foreign students who could form part of Japan's talent pool. Japan's strength in close university-research institutions-industry linkages has been an area of major weakness in India. Separation of teaching and research and of graduate and undergraduate education has not permitted realisation of synergies of full-fledged universities combining teaching and research. Commercially oriented and socially useful research col-industry and universities and research has therefore been limited. This has hampered India's efforts to progress on the path of becoming a knowledge economy. Deeper engagement with Japan could help address this deficiency.
The Japanese government has set up several scholarship programs to attract foreign students and to facilitate exchange of faculty and researchers. But Indian higher education and research institutions, as well as Indian's desiring to pursue higher education abroad have not given requisite priority to exploring opportunities with their counterparts in Japan. For the individuals, need to study Japanese language have been considered a formidable barrier. This is however unwarranted and counter-productive, particularly given deep cultural linkages between India and Japan. Indians are generally adept at languages, with most growing up with familiarity with at least two to three Indian languages. The use of English has also become more widespread. Several states, such as Gujarat, have begun to promote English as a language essential for global commerce and science. While these are steps in the right direction, importance of non-English languages on the internet, and in commerce and science is expected to grow as multi-polar world emerges. Functional knowledge of other major languages, including Japanese, has now become more essential.
Acquiring such knowledge in Japanese language takes about one year. This is a relatively small investment for widening career options for individuals, business opportunities for firms, and for enhancing scientific and technological options for the country. Accessibility of Japanese language training needs to be expanded considerably in different parts of the country. There are indications that Indian professionals, particularly in the IT industry, and in engineering are exploring prospects with Japanese companies. Indians desiring to widen their higher education options are also enrolling in tertiary institutions in Japan. But the trend needs to be significantly accelerated. Global operations of companies from Japan, including their growing presence in India, which is beginning to rival similar presence of companies from South Korea, can be expected to provide promising career prospects for in India, which is beginning to rival similar presence of companies from South Korea, can be expected to provide promising career prospects for Indians familiar with Japanese language and business culture.
To accelerate the trend, Indian universities should consider collaborations with Japanese universities as they seek global partners. Institutions such as St Xavier's college in Mumbai, which are planning to Internationalise their curriculum, student assessment criteria, and management practices would also greatly benefit by collaborating with their Japanese counterparts, particularly in science and technology. They could also consider establishing Japan Centers to facilitate such collaboration. Deeper engagement in tertiary education and in innovations will provide greater substance to India-Japan strategic partnership, and enhance economic space and strategic leverage for both countries. India should also consider entering into totalisation agreement with Japan, recognising social security arrangements of each country.
The states, such as Gujarat, which annually organise global investors meetings, and which aim to emerge as global business hubs, would particularly benefit by initiatives to also invite Japanese universities and research institutions to such meetings. These could be utilised to link similar institutions in Gujarat with their counterparts from Japan, and to facilitate establishment of research labs of Japanese corporations in India. Deeper engagement in tertiary education and in innovations will provide greater substance to India-Japan strategic partnership, and enhance economic space and strategic leverage for both countries. India should also consider entering into totalisation agreement with Japan, recognising social security arrangements of each country. Similarly, an agreement to facilitate Indian workers to fill specific needs in Japan could also be considered.
Higher Education is Japan core strength that made it a global tech superpower - Aftab Seth
AFTAB is an iconic face of India in Japan, He is former Indian Ambassador to Japan who is playing the role of a catalyst to bridge the gap between unexplored land of opportunity for the Indian Gen-Next. Mr Seth highlights the tremendous depth of Japanese core strength that is yet to be tapped in India Higher education. Japanese universities as a general rule offer high-class education at a price which is less than private universities in the USA. State universities in Japan tend to be reasonable compared to top private ones like Keio or Waseda founded by Okuma Shigenobu in 1888. The G-30 initiative by PM Fukuda in 2008 is aimed at increasing the number of foreign students in Japan from the present 130000 to 300000 by 2012. The Ritsumeikan office established in October 2010 at the Japan Foundation building is part of this initiative. Waseda has an office in Vietnam and other Universities have been given responsibility for other territories.
As part of this work we helped the G30 in January 2011 to invite students from top schools in Delhi and other cities to attend a seminar addressed by the representatives of leading Japanese universities. I inaugurated this seminar. The purpose is to attract young talent to study in Japan. The benefit Indian students would derive from such study are explained at such seminars. To make it easier some universities like Keio have started English medium classes at the Fujisawa campus which teaches all high tech subjects such as IT, Energy, environmental science and others. Keio has a separate initiative GIGA which aims to attract bright youth to study at the undergraduate level. Postgraduate schools in many leading universities have been conducting their classes in English for some years now. This is a trend that is growing.
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