The ruler of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, has made a significant move by appointing his son, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, as the crown prince of Abu Dhabi. This strategic decision places Sheikh Khaled as the second-in-line to the leadership of the major OPEC oil-exporting nation, bypassing older and more experienced royals in the process. The Al Nahyan ruling family, among the world's wealthiest, has a net worth of at least $300 billion, with complex holdings analyzed by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The UAE holds about 6% of the world's proven oil reserves and boasts substantial sovereign wealth funds.
This generational shift in leadership dynamics, favoring a son over a brother, mirrors a trend seen previously in Saudi Arabia with the ascent of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In Gulf monarchies, power transition pathways may involve brothers, cousins, and sons.
Sheikh Khaled, aged 43, has been groomed for leadership through his membership in the influential Abu Dhabi Executive Council and the primary national security body since 2016. His extensive experience in positions related to oil, the economy, and governance aligns with the broader pattern of state centralization and the consolidation of ruling lines seen within Gulf monarchies.
Sheikh Mohammed has also expanded the roles and responsibilities of powerful siblings, further solidifying the family's influence. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, the current UAE national security adviser, and Sheikh Hazza have been appointed deputy rulers of Abu Dhabi. Sheikh Tahnoon, recently named chairman of the $790 billion sovereign wealth fund Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, wields substantial behind-the-scenes influence in shaping the UAE's security policy and is a key figure in Abu Dhabi's business landscape.
Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed, named the UAE's vice president, is a well-known figure both within and outside the country. He owns Manchester City Football Club, serves as chairman of the central bank, Mubadala Investment Co. and holds leadership positions in various UAE-based firms.
Sheikh Khaled, the newly appointed crown prince, has not only been integral to the UAE's security establishment but has also demonstrated a keen interest in information technology, particularly in nurturing talent within the sector. He currently heads Abu Dhabi's executive office, a crucial supervisory body in the emirate's government.
This new generation of leaders will face critical challenges, including navigating the UAE's energy transition and achieving its 2050 net-zero target, a significant commitment among Gulf crude producers. They will also work to maintain the UAE's position as the Middle East's business and tourism hub, even amidst growing competition from Saudi Arabia. The decisions made by Sheikh Mohammed and his family, known as the Bani Fatima, will shape the future of the UAE's political and economic landscape.
Excerpts from Mahroks: The Story of the Kambojas, Sikhs and Shaheeds
The Kamboja people are very ancient and historic people of the famous Indo-Aryan race. They are now very numerous in the plains of East and West Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, other parts of India, around the mountains of Hindukush, the northeastern parts of Afghanistan, including its Badakhshan province, and modern Tajikistan across the Amu Darya (River Oxus), as well as in the southeastern parts of Iran.
The ancient Kamboja tribe was a famous Aryan tribe whose descendants we find in the Kamboja of today’s northern Indian subcontinent. Scholars opine that the Kamboj community of Punjab is related to the ancient Kamboja country, which was in the Hindukush mountain system and its adjoining areas. This land was noted in ancient literature for its fine breed of horses. Also called Kambohs, a farming community of Punjab, they are the modern descendants of the ancient Kambojas. The Kamboja people are the only Vedic Kshatriya people among the numerous Kshatriya tribes that participated in the great Mahabharata war. They have been especially glorified in the Mahabharata epic as the Vedic scholars (Kritvidiashach), besides being designated as the fiercest and swiftest of fighters, deadly warriors, wondrously armed braves, war intoxicated, death personified, dreadful as Yama, the God of Death, elephants gone wild/mad, as deadly as cobras, expert archers, expert cavaliers and expert mal-yudh-kushlah.
Surprisingly, and by the twists of time and history, this once extremely famous and powerful, warlike and scholarly class of royal and proud Indo-Aryan people of ancient India and Iran are today by all accounts and reckonings little-known people. These famous Vedic and Avestan Aryan people of a bygone era once ruled supreme in southwest Asia. They dictated terms, for sure, and spoke and acted from positions of strength, as is amply and repeatedly evidenced by numerous and copious ancient literature and epigraphic inscriptions in India, Persia and the writings of classical Sanskrit and Greek historians. According to authentic and dedicated researchers at Delhi University, ‘undoubtedly, every inch of the Afghan soil stands trampled under the hooves of the world-famous Kamboja horses of the war-expert Kamboja cavalry’.
Jewan Deepak, the author, is multi-faceted. An aviator, an IT specialist, a trained classical musician, a linguist (with specialisation in Russian), a historian, and most importantly, a writer.
Dr. Hansraj Bhardwaj, a stalwart of the Indian legal and political arena, passed away on March 8, 2020, leaving behind a legacy of legal reforms and initiatives that have had a lasting impact on the Indian judiciary. As we fondly remember him on his third death anniversary to be inspired by his lifetime achievements and service to the nation. Dr. Bhardwaj served as the Minister of Law and Justice of India for the longest time and was known for his unwavering commitment to the rule of law and judicial independence.
Dr. Bhardwaj's contributions to the Indian justice system were manifold. He introduced several significant legal reforms and initiatives that have helped to strengthen the justice system in India and improve access to justice for all. Some of his major contributions include the introduction of the Right to Information Act, the establishment of legal aid clinics across the country, the promotion of alternative dispute resolution methods, the introduction of the National Litigation Policy, and his efforts to promote gender justice and judicial independence.
One of Dr. Bhardwaj's most significant contributions to the Indian justice system was the introduction of the Right to Information Act in 2005. The Act provides citizens of India with the right to access information held by the government or any public authority. The Act has been instrumental in increasing transparency and accountability in governance and has had a profound impact on the functioning of the Indian judiciary. Through this law, the common people of India have been empowered to question the decisions made by the government and hold them accountable for their actions.
Dr. Bhardwaj was also a strong advocate of judicial independence and worked tirelessly to strengthen the appointment process for judges. During his tenure, he introduced a new system for the appointment of judges, and reduce the influence of political parties and other vested interests.
Dr. Bhardwaj's contributions to the Indian justice system also extended to improving access to justice for marginalized communities in India. He established legal aid clinics across the country to provide free legal assistance to those in need. He also introduced the Legal Services Authorities Act, which created a framework for legal aid services in India. Through these initiatives, he ensured that the poor and marginalized sections of society had access to legal assistance and were able to fight for their rights in the courts of law.
Another important area of Dr. Bhardwaj's work was the promotion of alternative dispute resolution (ADR) methods such as mediation, arbitration, and conciliation. He introduced the Arbitration and Conciliation (Amendment) Bill, 2003, which aimed to streamline the process of ADR in India and make it more effective. Through this bill, he sought to reduce the burden on the courts and provide a faster and more cost-effective mechanism for resolving disputes.
Dr. Bhardwaj was also a strong advocate of gender justice and introduced several laws and initiatives aimed at protecting the rights of women in India. He played a key role in the passage of the Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act, 2005, which provides legal protection to women from domestic violence. He also worked to promote the rights of women in the workplace and introduced several laws aimed at preventing sexual harassment and ensuring gender equality. Another significant contribution of Dr. Bhardwaj was the introduction of the National Litigation Policy in 2010. The policy aimed to reduce the burden on the courts by promoting out-of-court settlements and reducing the number of frivolous cases filed. The policy also sought to promote efficiency and transparency in the justice system and to reduce the backlog of cases in the Indian courts.
In addition to his contributions to the Indian justice system, Dr. Bhardwaj also played a key role in the Congress party's political campaigns. He was known for his excellent oratory skills and was a prominent speaker at party rallies and events. He was also involved in the party's election strategy and worked to mobilize voters in favor of the Congress party. Overall, Dr. Hansraj Bhardwaj's contributions as a politician for the Congress party were significant and far-reaching. Right from his active entry in 1982 to his exit in 2009, he kept the Congress party's flag flying high in national politics. Of course, he played a key role in the party's growth and development and made significant contributions to the Indian national congress party. His unwavering commitment to the rule of law and judicial independence, as well as his efforts to promote gender justice and empower marginalized communities, made him a respected and admired leader of the Congress party in the country.
Innovation, which is advancement over an existing product or idea, is a prerequisite for continuous improvement. But a disruptive innovation shakes up an industry once in a while. Disruptive innovation in business is not a new concept. It took birth in 1995 when it was proposed by one of the world’s leading thinkers on innovation Christensen along with his co-authors.
However, over the years, this concept has been misunderstood. It has generally been misapplied to a situation where the industry norms are shaken up and existing players stirred. And here’s where the catch is. Originally, Christensen ideated the concept of disruption, more like a David and Goliath situation– a smaller company with fewer resources successfully challenging an established business.
Established businesses in their effort to retain their existing majority target customer base, focus mainly on improving their present products or services and largely ignore other market segments. New entrants that sense this gap provide products or services lucrative to the overlooked segments.
While the established businesses do not pay heed to these new entrants, they slowly make inroads into upmarket, providing the same products or services to the majority customers whilst retaining their earlier advantage–lower prices. Once these mainstream customers embrace the new products or services, in large quantities, one can say disruption has occurred.
According to Christensen, potential for disruptive innovations arise because established businesses ignore both low-end and new markets. In an attempt to be more profitable, established businesses concentrate on providing mainstream customers with high quality products and services and commit resources in upgrading, enhancing and perfecting their existing products and services, all the while ignoring the low-end market. Sensing this opportunity, new entrants foray into this gap by using a low-cost business model. A low-end disruptor snatches the market share in this segment and pushes the established businesses upmarket. Additionally, disruption can occur by creating new markets where none existed, by developing new products for consumers, at a lower price and an acceptable quality. Arrival of personal computers, and later smartphones are perfect examples of new-market disruption.
The first computers, known as mainframes, were huge and very expensive. With costs as high as $2 million and size as big as to fill an entire room, computing technology was out of bounds for the common man. With the invention of the personal computer, a small and affordable piece of machine, a new market segment of individuals was created.
Over the years, with continuous improvement in its capabilities, a humble personal computer made the mainframe computers virtually obsolete. The next step in new market disruption is the emergence of smartphones, which are creating disruptions at two levels. One, the ability to use the internet in a phone at a fraction of cost of a personal computer is making usage of personal computers less necessary. Two, smartphone photograph taking capabilities are set to disrupt the digital photography industry.
However, over the years, the above concept has been misused by many who have not given serious thought to the notion itself. Internationally, Uber has been touted as a disruption. It uses mobile applications to connect consumers who need rides with drivers who are willing to provide them. Founded in 2009, the company has enjoyed fantastic growth and is still expanding. It has reported tremendous financial success, with funding rounds and soaring valuation. No doubt, Uber has transformed the business of transportation.
But has it brought about disruption? For disruption to happen, a company has to target an overlooked customer base and provide the right fit of product or service, usually at a lower cost. Uber connected the end users, i.e., customers used to taking cab services, to service providers. So, Uber did not fulfill any of the two conditions to become a disrupter – firstly, it did not bring the market segment that did not use cab services into its fold; and secondly, cab and taxi services were definitely not a new market. Finally, there is no threat to the car industry from Uber.
A well-known quote prevalent in Silicon Valley “disrupt or be disrupted” says it all. All businesses are continuously looking for opportunities to become disruptors with new innovative ideas, products or business models. But only a few are able to become disruptors. Disruptive innovation transforms complex and expensive products or services into simple and reasonable options. Although very time-consuming and enormously risky, creating disruption shakes up the existing established products and services by pushing the boundaries of any industry.
( Hima Bindu Kota The author is an educator, Article syndicated via The Pioneer )
Subhash Chandra Bose: A question of, by, and for the conscience of the people of Bharat.
Do not we the people of Bharat would like to enlighten ourselves with a book telling us about the post-1945 life of Subhash Chandra Bose but no conjectures of the same and guess what; the book is published by and endorsed by the government of Bharat? With this in mind let us traverse the realities.
The personas that have fought for the freedom of their respective countries have always been used by their descendants to reap international mileage and public support at home.
The political history and present state of affairs of any country shows how the present politicians use the past politicians to convince people that if the people lhad liked the past politicians then they have to love the present politicians because the present politicians are the replication of the past ones.
We find that our Subhash Babu and I will not use the title Netaji because Subhash Chandra Bose may be a leader to the world but to us, he is our Father, son, and brother respectively, and at the highest level, our Martyr and henceforth I shall call him as our Babu.
We find that Subhas Babu was eccentric, he was eccentric and unconventional to the Congress propagation of independence through the prism of non-violence however Mr. Gandhi did direct the Bharatiya Soldiers to fight for the British in the second world war and also directed out of rhetoric to Jews and Britishers that let Germany slaughter even your women and children.
Subhas Babu lived, as he is not living today, a life of adventure, adventure for sake of Bharat not for his pleasure. Now, we do not have any official declaration on his life post-1945 even after the finding of the Mukherjee commission that Subhash Babu did not die in a plane crash. Yes, many files have been declassified but they do not draw a convincing picture of the post-1945 life of Subhas Babu.
Our Babu has become a subject matter of many films namely Bose: Dead/Alive and Gumnami and such films have negated the plane crash theory and even made our Babu remain alive till 1985. I do not want to delve into what is termed as conjecture about the life period of our Babu post-1945. Instead, I ask the following questions:
Why shall not the post-1945 life of Subhas Babu, if any, be declared by the government? The government says such disclosure will affect the sovereignty, integrity, and foreign relation of Bharat with other countries.
Now, why not then does the government defines what kind of consequence regarding sovereignty, integrity, and foreign relation will follow post-disclosure?
We have the official secret Act which prohibits the government's servants and citizens to disclose secret information not permitted by law for disclosure but such disclosure is been prohibited for anti-typing, therefore you cannot disclose the information of our Bharat to our enemies.
So, therefore does not such non-disclosure by the government show that the information about the post-1945 life of Subhas Babu is a piece of information that we do not want our enemies to know?
Now does such non-disclosure also show that our enemies are interested to know about Subhas Babu for destroying us?
Who are those enemies?
Or
Will the brand of Congress and Gandhi be in jeopardy if the post-1945 life of Subhas Babu is disclosed as they were the influencers in India when the alleged 1945 plane crash happened and the alleged demise of Subhas Babu/Gumnami Baba took place in 1985?
One may argue that if that be so, then the BJP party in power would have disclosed the post-1945 life of Subhas Babu exposing the Gandhi family and the congress.
The answer is that such disclosure will affect the brand of the Mahatama of Gandhi which the BJP also sells to spread peace and secularism.
Therefore it appears that disclosure of the post-1945 life of Subhas Babu will be detrimental to the image of Bharat. But should not we expose that Bharat which suppressed her most valiant freedom fighter? Should not Bharat be punished who made the life of Subash Babu deleterious?
If Subhas Babu has lived after 1945, then he had lived with Pain. It is alleged that Gumnami Babi used to say his coming to the Public will be detrimental to Bharat. However, the record shows that our Subhas Babu has not been declared a war criminal by the allied powers.
The Right to Information Act gives u the right to know however at the same time it upholds the Official Secret Act thereby allowing the government to hide information from the public.
I am been told we shall not dig out the past which can affect our present. Yes, it appears that the post-1945 story of our Babu will affect our present and perhaps may be detrimental to the same but cannot we inform our present of the falsities of the past?
We have to decide, the Bharatiyas have to take a decision. The game of majority prevails in the Parliament and we shall call upon the parliament that we will not physically harm anyone after getting the true state of affairs of Subhas Babu's life but we shall inform our present about the true National life of our Past.
Social Justice that I understand includes the Right of the People living in the society to know the history of the society which I argue can be upheld if a social engineer like Subhas Babu is been made known to the public page by page and inch by inch. Mind u the INA comprised people of every sex and religion.
‘Democracy conceives the rule of the majority but sometimes it forgets to emphasize the conscience of the majority and here in the case of Subhas Babu, the conscience of we the people of Bharat wants to know not like the phrase the nation wants to know’.
Views expressed by the writer are personal.
The next great war may come out of some damned foolish thing in the South China Sea or the East China Sea. Alliances are as old as civilisation. Older, actually: almost every hunter-gatherer band that anthropologists have studied, from the New Guinea highlanders to the Yanomamo in the Amazon, made alliances with other groups to try to protect themselves.
But they often also ended up fighting people they had no quarrel with. ‘The enemy of my enemy is my friend’ is the usual logic that the alliances are built on, but people tend to overlook the fact that alliances also mean that ‘the enemy of my ally is my enemy too.’
Right now, the various regional alliances that already exist seem to be consolidating into a single all-embracing alliance system. It was that kind of system that made the First World War happen, and we probably don’t want to see that happen again.
Only three years ago there was only one big alliance in the world: the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), founded in 1949, victorious in the Cold War, and more recently an alliance in search of a new role. Almost everybody in Europe and North America belonged to it.
Apart from that, the United States had bilateral alliances or alliance-like arrangements with a number of countries in the Middle East (Israel), East Asia (Japan, South Korea and perhaps Taiwan) and Oceania (Australia and New Zealand).
Three of the world’s biggest countries, China, India and Russia, had no military alliances worth talking about. Unless you think that the China-North Korea, India-Bhutan and Russia-Armenia alliances count.
It was, in other words, a loosely-coupled world: something could go really bad in one part of the planet, and countries in other regions would not necessarily be dragged into it.
The shift began with rising concern in the Asia-Pacific countries and the United States about the irresistible rise of president-for-life Xi Jinping to supreme power in China. The response to that was the Quad, formally the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: the US, India, Australia and Japan.
Founded in 2017, it began as just a talking shop, but after bitter clashes between Indian and Chinese troops on the Himalayan frontier in 2020 India came fully on board, participating in the first joint naval exercises with the other three Quad members in 2020.
Then came AUKUS, an alliance uniting the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, with the initial task of arranging for Australia to get a fleet of nuclear-powered attack submarines. It was transparently designed to challenge China’s territorial ambitions in the South China Sea.
This pretty well completed the architecture for an ‘Indo-Pacific NATO’ whose members would account for about a third of the world’s GDP. The original NATO members account for about 45 per cent of global GDP (although the US and the UK are being double-counted in this reckoning).
While China’s more belligerent style under Xi certainly accounts for the speed at which a counter-balancing alliance took shape in the region, the equal and opposite reaction to this enterprise was the announcement of a “no limits” partnership by Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, in early 2022. All this happened before Russia invaded Ukraine again in February of last year (having done it once already in 2014).
You can see how everybody was reacting in large part to moves by the other ‘side’, and why Xi backed off quickly from his ‘no limits’ partnership with Russia once he realised how obsessed Putin was with his Ukraine legacy project.
Nevertheless, the game is now afoot, and it will be hard to stop. Germany announced that it was doubling its defence budget last February; Japan said it would do the same last month. China is rapidly expanding its armed forces despite a failing economy, and Russia’s growing derangement is hard to ignore.
All the planners and analysts insist that they have it under control. We shouldn’t worry that we are living through a high-speed replay of the creation of the entangling alliances that dragged everybody into the First World War. This is a different time.
My problem is that I can’t see what is so different about this time. Outside the specific and well-contained war in Ukraine, there are no great issues of principle at stake, and none of the great powers is planning to destroy or subjugate any of the others. (Ukraine is not a great power, so that doesn’t count.)
Count Otto von Bismarck, first Chancellor of the newly united German Empire, remarked in 1878 that “One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans.” As it did, in 1914, once all the alliances were in place.
The next great war may come out of some damned foolish thing in the South China Sea. Or the East China Sea, for that matter.
Gwynne Dyer’s new book is The Shortest History of War, Article Courtesy The Pioneer
Propelled by the need to return to fiscal consolidation path and targeting fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP at 5.9 percent for the financial year (FY) 2023-24 (against 6.4 percent for FY 2022-23), the Union government is keen to rein in major subsidies. It wants to slash fertilizer subsidies from the likely actual of around Rs 250,000 crore during the current FY to Rs 140,000–150,000 crore during 2023-24.
Does it have measures to deliver? Is it merely banking on a drop in international fertiliser prices?
Fertilizer subsidy is payments made to manufacturers or importers to cover the excess of the cost of production/import and distribution (or cost of supply) over a low maximum retail price (MRP) they are directed by the Union Government to charge from the farmers. The subsidy on each ton of fertilizer produced (or imported) and sold is nothing but the difference between the cost of supply and MRP.
When multiplied by the total quantity of fertilizer sold in a year, it gives aggregate subsidy payments, as reflected in the budget.
Even as fertiliser sales are primarily demand-driven (this in turn, depends on the weather, area sown under different crops, fertilizer use per hectare and so on), the other two crucial factors are MRP and the cost of supply. As for MRP, given the massive political ramifications of any hike and a spate of assembly elections during 2023 followed by general elections in 2024, the government won’t dare to bring about even a small hike, forget a steep jump needed for slashing the subsidy by over Rs 100,000 crore.
As for the cost of supply, India is overwhelmingly dependent on imports. Nearly 50 percent of India’s requirement of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) is imported, whereas in the case of muriate of potash (MOP), our import dependence is 100 percent. Similarly, all phosphoric acid and the bulk of ammonia (raw materials or RMs used in the making of DAP and other non-urea fertilisers) are imported. About one-third of the urea demand is imported. Even for the balance of two-thirds supplied domestically, India depends on the import of natural gas (NG) for at least 1/3rd of its requirement.
Of the total potash imports, India draws close to 50 percent from Russia and Belarus. Russia, Belarus and Ukraine together account for 20 percent of our phosphoric acid imports. Additionally, India gets around 15 percent of its ammonia imports from Russia which also supplies 10 percent of our NG imports. Nearly 60 percent of Indian DAP imports come from China and Saudi Arabia.
In the case of urea, over one-third of Indian imports come from China. The war following military action by Russia and sanctions imposed on it by European countries and the USA has resulted in disruption in supplies from the region and a steep increase in price of both fertilisers as well as RMs used in their production. All of these cost escalations were absorbed by the Centre by increasing subsidies during 2022-23 even as MRPs of all fertilisers were kept unchanged.
Given the unfolding geo-political and military situation with NATO countries getting increasingly entangled in the conflict and Russia and Ukraine showing no sign of scaling down hostilities (forget ending), there seems to be no end to the war at least till the end of 2023.
Therefore, any relief from the current tight global supply and elevated fertiliser prices is highly unlikely. The government has been trying to diversify sources of supply, for instance, buying more of MOP from Canada, Israel, Jordan, etc., or more of DAP from Saudi Arabia and Morocco. But, these efforts have only helped in ensuring adequate supplies but not much relief in securing lower prices.
Meanwhile, Chemicals and Fertiliser Minister Mansukh Mandaviya has led delegations to major supplier countries seeking long-term agreements. These are welcome moves but the timing isn’t apt. When the global supply-demand scenario is tight, India is unlikely to secure good price deals, notwithstanding some concession over the prevailing high price in lieu of our committing to buy long-term.
In regard to NG, the government is working on a couple of initiatives such as “incentivizing companies that contract fuel at better prices”, idea of an aggregator for procuring the fuel on behalf of fertilizer producers and buying NG from gas exchanges.
Since 2015, the Centre has been running a system of pooling NG to supply all urea plants connected to a national grid at a uniform delivered price (UDP).
Even as individual units pay as per their respective weighted average delivered cost, the pool operator, viz. GAIL India Limited, notifies the UDP at the beginning of every month. A unit that pays less than UDP has to deposit the differential amount with the pool, whereas another unit that pays more gets the difference from the pool.
Under the scheme, the ability of a urea manufacturer to purchase gas at a lower price is not rewarded, just as there is no disincentive for others who buy at a higher price. Hence, any talk of “incentivising companies that contract fuel at better prices” is laughable.
The idea of an aggregator procuring fuel on behalf of Indian fertiliser producers is appealing as consolidation of demand enhances the negotiating power with global suppliers. But then, GAIL India Limited, in coordination with the Department of Fertilisers (DoF), is already doing this by assessing the deficit in supply from existing sources vis-à-vis the projected demand and importing LNG to plug it.
Buying NG from gas exchanges won’t help either. This is because the quantity traded at the exchange is miniscule. The government is also pinning hopes on Nano liquid urea or urea in the form of nanoparticles. It provides nitrogen to plants in liquid form as an alternative to conventional urea. A 500ml bottle of nano urea is equivalent to a 45kg bag of conventional urea. While, selling the latter for Rs 242 requires subsidy support of Rs 2,758, the former is available to farmers at the same price sans subsidy.
A 45kg bag of conventional urea contains 46 percent ‘N’ or 20 kg (45×0.46), whereas a 500ml bottle of nano urea has 4 percent ‘N’ or 20 grams (500x.04). Yet, the two are treated as equal. Can a mere 20 grams in nano urea deliver what 20 kg in conventional urea does? Nano urea could solve India’s fertiliser subsidy conundrum if only miracles happen!
To conclude, the initiatives taken by the Government are unlikely to make a dent on subsidy on the desired scale. An outgo of Rs 140,000 crore-150,000 crore during 2023-24 seems to be beyond reach. During 2020-21, the budget estimate (BE) for fertilizer subsidy was Rs 70,000 crore but the actual was Rs 138,000 crore. During 2021-22, BE was Rs 80,000 crore but the actual was Rs 162,000 crore. For 2022-23, BE was Rs 105,000 crore but the actual is likely to be Rs 250,000 crore. If for 2023-24, the finance minister keeps BE at Rs 140,000-150,000 crore, we will only see a repeat of the past.
India can break away from this trend only if the Government pursues major reforms such as urea decontrol and direct benefit transfer (DBT) of subsidy, which can force suppliers to cut costs, stop leakages, and farmers to improve fertilizer efficiency.
ALAS! None of these is on the radar.
Article Courtesy The Pioneer: (Uttam Gupta: The author is a policy analyst)
India and Japan have common objectives in forging military agreements beyond military exercises and trade
China poses an active threat to the countries of the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. By avoiding contact warfare, it wishes to avoid heavy casualties and the associated international repercussions, especially the tag of a 'war initiator'. Hence, its strategies of wolf warrior diplomacy and salami slicing aim for a fait accompli, i.e., situations in which the revisionist power can revise the current system without a direct confrontation.
Xi Jinping's ‘China Dream’ encompasses "informatised local wars" with disruptive technologies of artificial intelligence (AI), unmanned systems, and directed-energy weapons. Thus, adopting an 'Integrated Network Electronic Warfare' blends computer network attacks and electronic warfare. This dominance is seen as a force multiplier in the capabilities of the PLA.
For this purpose, China has adopted a leapfrog approach in making advancements in non-kinetic physical directed energy weapons (DEW), which could be a future game changer. A plethora of DEW platforms, such as targeted high-powered lasers and wave emitters or particle beam waves, enhance Beijing's electromagnetic warfare capabilities. DEWs can disable the satellite sensors and jam automated signal and communication systems.
Washington's Defence Intelligence Agency Report, Challenges to Security in Space (2022), assessed that Beijing owns "multiple ground-based laser weapons of varying power levels to disrupt, degrade, or damage satellites that include a currently limited capability to employ laser systems against satellite sensors". Thus, it has the capability to produce reversible and non-reversible effects against the space systems of its adversaries.
Beijing's Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) satellite fleet, which has doubled since 2018, stood at 250 systems in 2022. These satellites allow the PLA to monitor and map the maritime and terrestrial bodies in the Indian Ocean, the South China Sea and the Korean peninsula. At an international level, Russia and China are leaving no stone unturned in implementing their "no limits partnership" and jointly continue to develop and test their ASAT weapons in their military exercises. Given the technological developments related to the PLA, East and South Asia's overall balance of power has been disturbed.
In East Asia, Japan is trying to stand up against the Chinese threats to what it calls "the most severe and complex security environment since World War II". It understands that it is becoming crucial to counter China at two fronts simultaneously, i.e. first, to counter its naval expansion along with its numerical superiority, and second its expanding scope of electromagnetic warfare.
Consequently, the change in Tokyo's strategic stance on Beijing from an economic partner to an active military threat has given the leadership strategic clarity of its security requirements and policy formulation. By 2026, Japan intends to deploy Lockheed Martin's Tomahawk and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff missiles at several bases. On the other hand, it is also going ahead with its military-civil integration with Mitsubishi Heavy Industry, aiming to develop a surface-to-ship guided missile.
Moreover, Japan has contemplated a possible Chinese electromagnetic attack that can disable power grids and other critical military assets like jet aircraft even before hostilities are initiated. It has incorporated the new technologies under "multi-domain defence force" for "cross-domain operations". For its immediate need, Japan has plans to deploy an Electronic Warfare unit to Yonaguni, Okinawa prefecture, to enhance its analytical and data collection capabilities.
From an international political perspective, Japan has rapidly moved beyond the partnership domain and entered formal institutionalised security cooperation. Thus, it is no longer in the stage of a 'reluctant realist'. The foundations laid by late PM Shinzo Abe are now reaping fruits which make Japan more secure and allow it to stand up against the Chinese threat.
Two crucial developments last year are much appreciated. First, Japan and Germany agreed to set up a "legal framework to facilitate joint activities between Japan's Self-Defence Forces and the German military". With agreements in place for intelligence-sharing mechanisms and promoting transfers of defence equipment and technology, interoperability between Japan and Germany would be a welcome step.
Second, Japan signed a bilateral security agreement with Australia that encompasses "practical cooperation and interoperability" in the emerging domains. These areas include intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance… advanced defence science and technology, defence industry and high-end capabilities".
Although 2023 has just begun, Japan is already in action. The recent Japan-UK Reciprocal Access Agreement for "cooperative activities" will expand the narratives of a "free and open Indo-Pacific", thereby having profound consequences for the region. Also, the US-Japan agreement for "exploration, science, and research" in deep space has provisions for joint activities between the two countries in various areas such as space operations and technology, space transportation, safety and mission assurance.
Against the above backdrop, there are important messages for India, as it also faces an aggressive China on the land and in the maritime domain. A possible Sino-Pak collaboration, apart from challenges from the sea, can make the situation for India worrisome. Thus, it is time for India to come out of its reluctant approach and initiate dual-use critical technologies agreements with credible partners like Japan, France and Germany.
India should not be left behind in institutionalising multi-faceted security agreements. Although there are unsaid similarities in the objectives of Quad and the AUKUS, a very different approach shouldn't make the geographical contours of Quad more vulnerable to the Chinese threat. Needless to say that Galwan and Tawang skirmishes have demonstrated that the future of the India-China relationship does not seem to be stable at all, thereby posing multiple tactical as well as strategic challenges for the country.
India and Japan have common objectives in forging military agreements beyond military exercises and trade. Various dimensions of security agreements, such as joint research and production of technologies in the electromagnetic spectrum, increase the interoperability between the two forces, apart from developing cyber offensive mechanisms that can bring stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific order.
China, in future conflicts, will provoke either of the two countries at one point in time and would naturally expect stability at the other international border. Thus, it becomes essential to frustrate China in its own game; hence, Indo-Japan defence relations need to be boosted.
(The author is Associate Professor in Central University of Punjab, Bathinda)
Heaven is literally falling to greed. It is just not Joshimath but even Tehri Garhwal, Karnaprayag, and Mussorie that are also sinking and so may be many other parts at the crest of the Uttarakhand Himalayas. The Rs 12,000-crore Char Dham (CD) all-weather road projects spurring real estate are gobbling up all.
Latest reports say that still the earth movers are digging around Joshimath and other areas even as over 4,000 persons have been evacuated and most houses are crumbling. Tragedies do not stop the road to hell. In 2013, the Uttarakhand Government sought Rs 21,000 crore for ruthless reconstruction after the Himalayan deluge. It seems to be the catalyst for the present disaster.
The Tehri district is the latest to report cracks and land subsidence. An IIT Roorkee team is studying Karnaprayag. Chamba in the Tehri, around a CD tunnellng remains the worst hit with houses crumbling. seepage at Tehri dam is common, reports SP Rai of the National Institute of Hydrology. Now a road from Mana to Lipulekh through sensitive hills with the rare virgin forest is the latest to be in danger. In June 2013, after the Kedarnath tragedy this scribe mentioned “in all there are 244 hydel projects (HEP) of various sizes planned to be constructed in the state. Some of these are already on the streams. Others are coming up. Pancheswar dam being planned in Tanakpur is likely to be bigger than Tehri and the biggest in India. Does that mean more disasters are awaiting the region?” Unfortunately, it is so. Nobody listened to the cries of former minister Uma Bharati to not dislodge the image of the presiding deity, Dhari Devi before the June 18, 2013 cloudburst. The CAG reviewed 42 hydel projects in 2009.
It noted that over 200 more projects were coming up – almost every five to seven km. The yearning for making Uttarakhand the “Urja Pradesh” has led to reckless development. Ravi Chopra, former head of the High-Power Committee for CD roads, says that a bypass around Joshimath was opposed by the townspeople. The 10-meter-wide road all around the state weakens the hills with digging, blasting, and removal of green cover and aquifers. In 2010, HNB Garhwal University study said a tunnel boring machine punctured an aquifer on December 24, 2009, releasing millions of litres of water daily from NTPC’s Tapovan-Vishnugad 520 MW hydel project.
The researchers warned of the mishap’s potential for “initiating ground subsidence”. It was forgotten till December 2022 when the looming nightmare became a reality around Joshimath. This punctured aquifer gushing out water is the cause for Joshimath sinking, confirms Garhwal Commissioner Sushil Kumar. In February 2021, around 200 people went missing as Dhauliganga and Rishibhanga rivers flooded Tapovan head race tunnel. Warnings of 1930 Swiss scientists, 1976 Commissioner MC Mishra on haphazard constructions and the Supreme Court-appointed committee of 2013 for seismically sensitive Main Central Zone advice against hydel projects were ignored.
Incidents of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF), a UNDP and European Commission study mentioned, are happening regularly. Notable incidents occurred in 1997, 2000 and 2005 in the Sutlej basin and in 1970 and 1978 in Alaknanda and Bhagirathi basins. In 2000 and 2005, it hit the Pong Dam, in Himachal, severely damaging roads, habitations and scores of bridges. The Himalayas all around is crumbling. Dams and roads benefit the industry-real estate mafia damning the sensitive geology and livelihood. If unchecked it may have disastrous consequences and even desertify the cradle of the civilisation in the Ganga valley. The country must rise to stop it.
Courtesy-The Pioneer, Shivaji Sarkar: The author is a senior journalist.
The richest one percent in India now own more than 40 percent of the country's total wealth, while the bottom half of the population together share just 3 percent of the wealth, a new study released by Oxfam on Monday.
Releasing the India supplement of its annual inequality report on the first day of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting here, rights group Oxfam International said that taxing India's ten-richest at 5 percent can fetch entire money to bring children back to school.
"A one-off tax on unrealized gains from 2017–2021 on just one billionaire, Gautam Adani, could have raised Rs 1.79 lakh crore, enough to employ more than five million Indian primary school teachers for a year," it added.
The report titled 'Survival of the Richest' further said that if India's billionaires are taxed once at 2 percent on their entire wealth, it would support the requirement of Rs 40,423 crore for the nutrition of malnourished in the country for the next three years.
"A one-time tax of 5 percent on the 10 richest billionaires in the country (Rs 1.37 lakh crore) is more than 1.5 times the funds estimated by the Health and Family Welfare Ministry (Rs 86,200 crore) and the Ministry of Ayush (Rs 3,050 crore) for the year 2022-23," it added.
"Taxing the top 100 Indian billionaires at 2.5 percent, or taxing the top 10 Indian billionaires at 5 percent would nearly cover the entire amount required to bring the children back into school," it added.
Oxfam said the report is a mix of qualitative and quantitative information to explore the impact of inequality in India. Since the pandemic began in Nov 2022, billionaires in India have seen their wealth surge by 121 percent or Rs 3,608 crore per day in real terms, Oxfam said.
On the other hand, approximately 64 percent of the total Rs 14.83 lakh crore in Goods and Services Tax (GST) came from the bottom 50 percent of the population in 2021-22, with only 3 percent of GST coming from the top 10 percent.
Oxfam said the total number of billionaires in India increased from 102 in 2020 to 166 in 2022. The combined wealth of India's 100 richest has touched USD 660 billion (Rs 54.12 lakh crore) -– an amount that could fund the entire Union Budget for more than 18 months, it added.
Oxfam India CEO Amitabh Behar said, "The country's marginalised – Dalits, Adivasis, Muslims, Women and informal sector workers are continuing to suffer in a system which ensures the survival of the richest.
"The poor are paying disproportionately higher taxes, spending more on essential items and services when compared to the rich. The time has come to tax the rich and ensure they pay their fair share."
Behar urged the Union finance minister to implement progressive tax measures such as wealth tax and inheritance tax, which he said have been historically proven to be effective in tackling inequality.
By all accounts, BJP MP Varun Gandhi is on his way out of the party. In that event, he could either 're-align with his 'parental party' or would find a ‘third-alternative', write Deepak K Upreti and Dipak Kumar Jha
The buzz is growing louder that Varun Gandhi is counting his days in the BJP. Except for Subramanian Swamy, no other BJP leader has chastised his own party the way Varun has done over the last two years. But worse. He sounds so much like his cousin Rahul Gandhi. The same outrage against the politics of communalism and caste, the same criticism of the role of media, and the same concerns for the farmers and unemployed youth. The same outpouring of emotion over the future of the nation.
Incidentally, he is also heard saying in one of the viral videos that he has nothing against Congress or Nehru ji. An ‘unconventional politician’ and three-time BJP member of parliament, Varun Gandhi is now looking beyond the ‘self-limiting barriers’ of the saffron party. By all accounts, Varun is on his way out. In that event, he could either ‘re-align with his ‘parental party’ or would find a ‘third-alternative’.
When contacted by The Pioneer on his public stand on various issues going contrary to the central dispensation, the dissident MP said “I believe, I joined public life out of a sense of duty, I believe am doing all that could benefit average Indian and change the routine political discourse around us....”.
The countdown for the 42-year-old, the son of former central minister Maneka Gandi and the late Sanjay Gandhi, has begun. The BJP has completely marginalized him after pitting him and his mother against the Gandhi family of the Congress.
But as the Modi- led BJP captured Uttar Pradesh, the BJP cold-shouldered the MP from Pilibhit who at one time was seen as a possible Chief Ministerial candidate for the electorally biggest states in the country.
Appointed party secretary under Nitin Gadkari and then the youngest General secretary under the presidentship of Rajnath Singh, at the age of 33, Varun looked to fly high when the regime of Amit Shah suddenly clipped his wings and dropped him as General Secretary.
Varun did not seem to fit in the strict command and control of Modi-Shah BJP which is way different from the Vajpayee-Advani structure carrying imprints of ‘liberal shades’. The last straw for Varun has been his mother's exit from the Modi cabinet of 2019 and the dropping of both from the BJP’s National Executive.
The BJP MP has since then been making no-holds-barred strikes at the Modi-regime policies but avoided any personal attacks on the BJP leaders. The ruling party has also remained reconciled to the “uneasy peace” with an unwritten understanding that seems to be guiding both sides.
Since 2019, the BJP MP has taken a complete contrarian view on all the economic and political policies, including on the alleged religious polarization across the country. Restless and ambitious, Varun says “ Look at my track record and tell me, if I am not speaking for people in any of my writings or actions”.
And something none can hold against him is the fact that he is the only MP who is not drawing his salary and donating it to “farmers on the verge of suicide on account of their debt” while a majority of other MPs seek higher salaries, more perks, and privileges.
In Uttar Pradesh, the Pilibhit MP from 2015 to 2017 worked out a plan towards an “individual solution” for the debt-ridden farmers, particularly those on the verge of suicide. In his book ‘Rural Manifesto’, Varun pointed out economic markers driving farmers to suicide in UP.
The crowd-funding efforts, he says, made 8000 to 10000 farmers debt free in 20 districts of UP. He is the only MP from National Democratic Alliance who supported ‘Jan Lokpal bill and sat at ‘Ram Lila Maidan’ to back it in 2011. He also backed the ‘Kisan Andolan’, condemned police attacks on farmers, and supported the victims of Lakhimpur Kheri violence in UP.
The MP also points to the fact he has espoused the cause of Independent judiciary vis-vis ‘committed judiciary’ to allow free speech and ethos. He went on to criticize the Modi dispensation for leaving two crore government jobs vacant when the unemployment, post-Covid, was at its peak. Thereafter, he also presented a private Member bill ‘Bharosa : Bhartiya Rojgar Sanhita’ for a mandatory and time-bound filling of government jobs in the country.
Even before 2019, he had taken a non-party stance but the party re-nominated him and his mother Maneka Gandhi and even allowed them to swap constituencies.
The BJP bosses have ignored his potshots, but it is unlikely that this time Varun will escape the guillotine of the BJP parliamentary board when it comes to picking up candidates for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah are not known to forgive and forget. Varun cannot retrace his steps. He has to move forward, on a path that may unite the Gandhi family and see him emerging as the poster boy of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 polls. Who knows, he may even explore other options if winnability was his sole concern. But one thing is clear: Varun’s days in the BJP are numbered.
Rahul Gandhi recently ducked a question on the prospect of Varun joining the Congress and said only party president M Mallikarjun Kharge was competent to talk on the subject. But few will believe that Kharge will have any say in a matter which involved such sensitive family issues.
It is believed that Priyanka could become the catalyst for Varun’s departure from the BJP and entry into Congress. And if this happens, it would also unify the Nehru-Gandhi family after almost 40 years when the Sonia Gandhi-Maneka Gandhi tiff split the Congress’ first family.
“Varun has a significant following in Pilibhit-Sultanpur-Lakhimpur Khiri and its surrounding areas. If he joins the Congress, this could be a big boost to Congress which is struggling to regain its foothold in UP beyond the family boroughs of Amethi and Raebareli,” said Pushpendra, former Professor and Dean at Tata Institute of Social Science (TISS).
Pusphendra further explained how a new political environment will be created in case Varun joins the Congress. “In politics, the word ‘mahaul’ has a lot of significance. As the political climate seems to change over Congress’ Yatra, Varun’s joining may both affect and impact. People from other parties in the State like SP and BSP (which seems to fade away now) may follow the suit and joins the winds of change,” the political analyst said.
Earlier it was speculated that Sonia and Rahul were not keen to allow another Gandhi to join the family enterprise, especially one with much more ambition and drive than Rahul. But after the stupendous success of the Bharat jodo yatra, Rahul seems to be in complete control of things in Congress. He has no reason to feel wary of anyone with or outside the party.
Significantly, on the 76th birth anniversary of Sanjay Gandhi, the Congress gave much more space to their former dynamic leader which was never done in three decades.
Varun seems determined to create a situation that leads to his exit from the BJP. This reflects in his speeches. Look at the following:” The politics of our country should be to unite the country, not the politics of creating a civil war. We should not do politics that suppress people, rather we should do politics that uplift people…..TV and newspapers are only doing Hindu-Muslim, Hindu-Muslim, and caste politics. Divide brothers and kill brothers. We will not let these politics happen,” Varun said recently.
His statement is compared with Rahul’s speech in Delhi during the Bharat Jodo Yatra. Interestingly, almost ‘caged’ in the BJP, Varun has flourished with his pen.
Dwelling on rural distress, Varun has written 1000 pages of’ Rural Manifesto - Realizing India’s future through her villages’ , which is “taught in economic courses” of some of the universities. Next month, he is bringing out his other 1100 pages volume on ‘Urbanization- the Indian Metropolis’. ‘The otherness of the self’ and ‘ Stillness’ are his two early books on poetry by Varun.
In the run-up to 2024, the Gandhi scion is, understandably, all set to end his existential dilemma and the BJP too may reciprocate in equal measure.
(Syndicated column: The Writer/s are special correspondent of The Pioneer)
FREE Download
OPINION EXPRESS MAGAZINE
Offer of the Month