President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran, once seen as a likely successor to the Supreme Leader, died in office, leaving the Islamic Republic's hardline establishment facing an uncertain future. Raisi, a 63-year-old ultraconservative, was killed Sunday in a helicopter crash in Iran's remote northwest, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other high-ranking officials. This tragedy occurs at a delicate time, as the country faces significant challenges both domestically and internationally.
Iran's economy remains crippled by American sanctions, and its young population is increasingly restive. The nation also faces belligerent adversaries in the Middle East and beyond. Raisi's death is expected to "trigger elections at a time when the IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran) is at the nadir of its legitimacy and zenith of its exclusionary policies," said Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, on X.
Power has now transferred to Mohammad Mokhber, who served as Raisi's vice president. On Monday, he was approved as acting president by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the ultimate authority in Iran. Mokhber is known to be close to the IRGC and other power structures. However, by law, Iran must hold elections within the next 50 days. State news agency IRNA announced that Iran’s presidential elections will take place on Friday, June 28. Candidates can register from May 30 to June 3, and campaigning will run from June 12 until the morning of June 27.
Experts predict the elections will be hastily organized with poor voter turnout. In March, Iran recorded its lowest electoral participation since the Islamic Republic’s founding in 1979, despite government efforts to rally voters. This vote, which included seats in the parliament and the 88-member Assembly of Experts, brought in mostly hardline politicians.
"The population has largely lost faith in the idea that change can come through the ballot box," wrote Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, on X. "Real alternatives to Iran’s hardliners have simply not been allowed to stand for office in the last few elections."
Despite Raisi's death, significant change is not expected, particularly in foreign policy, which is controlled by the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards. Raisi's death raises questions about who will succeed the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Raisi had been groomed as a potential successor, and his death created a "succession crisis," according to Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The Assembly of Experts, tasked with selecting the Supreme Leader, has become increasingly hardline. While discussions about succession are opaque, some speculate that Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, might be a contender, though this would be a significant shift from the principles of the Islamic Republic.
Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian had overseen improved relations with Arab neighbors and initiated a direct attack on Israel, bringing the shadow war into the open. Experts believe Raisi's death will not alter Iran’s foreign policy trajectory, which is determined by the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader.
While the upcoming elections might present an opportunity for sidelined moderates to re-enter the political arena, it remains uncertain whether the regime will choose to open up the political space to enhance voter turnout and legitimacy. Raisi came to power in an election seen as a foregone conclusion, with moderate candidates squeezed out, leading to low voter turnout and highlighting the regime’s waning legitimacy.
(photo courtesy arynews)