In 2007, Pakistan spiralled downwards amid violence, political polarisation and economic recession. However, some normalcy was restored. Is it heading that way again?
On September 30, 1965, the Communist Party of Indonesia — Parti Komunis Indonesia (PKI) — attempted a coup d’etat through a clandestine organisation embedded within the Indonesian armed forces. The PKI was close to the Indonesian nationalist hero and first ruler President Sukarno. PKI’s embedded organisation, the 13th of September Movement, believed that a large portion of the country’s armed forces was anti-Communist and under the influence of the US, which was planning to topple Sukarno.
Sukarno was not a communist himself. In her book, Maoism: A Global History, Julia Lovell writes that he had kept the large PKI on his side to neutralise the influence of the military. Nevertheless, in the early 1960s, as tensions between the military and PKI mounted and the economy began to unravel, Sukarno made an alarming speech in August 1964. Alluding to the developing crisis, Sukarno stated that the country was “living dangerously.”
The 1965 coup attempt was brutally thwarted by anti-communist military factions. The coup was crushed by Major-General Suharto. Adrian Wickers, in his 2013 book, A History of Modern Indonesia, writes that the military gave far-right Islamic and Catholic groups ample space and impunity to carry out some of the worst massacres of the 20th century. A 1977 Amnesty International report suggests that “about one million” Indonesians — believed to be PKI members or sympathisers — were mercilessly slaughtered and these included pregnant women and children.
The Australian novelist Christopher Koch dramatised the carnage in a 1978 novel. The title of the novel, The Year of Living Dangerously, was inspired by Sukarno’s speech. Since the novel was turned into a film in 1982, the expression “year of living dangerously” is often used by writers and journalists to describe a tumultuous year in the life of a country and/or a particularly violent period in which a country spirals into anarchy and unprecedented bloodshed.
If one sets aside 1971’s bloody civil war in former East Pakistan, then the year in which Pakistan lived dangerously (in the context of the mentioned expression) has to be 2007. It is remarkable that the country actually came out of it at all.
The year got off to a terrible start when, in January, an Al Qaeda suicide bomber killed 12 policemen in Peshawar. Then in February, military chief and president Pervez Musharraf suspended the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Chaudhry, accusing him of corruption.
The lawyers’ community rejected the suspension and began a movement. It was soon joined by both big and small Opposition parties, whose rallies were often attacked by riot police. As the movement transformed into a populist anti-Musharraf drive and spread from Punjab to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, its leaders decided to take it to Sindh’s capital city, Karachi. Karachi’s then largest party, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), was a staunch ally of the Musharraf regime.
The MQM wasn’t happy when the suspended judge and his supporters arrived in Karachi on May 12, 2007. As the judge was waiting at the city’s airport, riots and open gun battles between MQM activists and those belonging to the anti-Musharraf alliance such as the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) and Awami National Party (ANP), erupted on the roads and streets of the city. Government buildings, media outlets, cars and buses were fired upon and torched. Snipers took positions on overhead bridges and mowed down opponents with bullets.
The city came to a standstill as armed men roamed the streets amid dead bodies, abandoned cars and burning motorbikes and buses. According to a May 13, 2007 report by CNN, 33 people were killed and dozens were wounded. The MQM and the Musharraf regime accused the Opposition parties for the violence, whereas the former and most local and foreign news outlets put the blame on the latter and Musharraf.
Then in June, unprecedented monsoon rains in Karachi killed over 200 people. The very next month on July 3, militant clerics and their ‘students’ fired at security forces posted outside Islamabad’s Red Mosque. The mosque and its seminary had been taken over by radical clerics and their supporters, who for months had been harassing the people of the locality on the pretext of “vanquishing anti-Islamic activities.” As tensions between the clerics and the state rose, security forces moved in after it was confirmed that the clerics and their “students” were heavily armed. The major siege took place on July 10 and 11 when Pakistan military commandos entered the building and eliminated the militants.
On July 13, newspapers reported that 102 people had been killed. These included 91 civilians (most of whom were militants holed up in the mosque), 10 soldiers and one ranger. As the political and economic situation continued to deteriorate, while terrorist attacks by Al Qaeda-affiliated outfits increased in number, the exiled chairperson of the PPP Benazir Bhutto, returned to Pakistan in October. A large rally in Karachi that was escorting her from the Jinnah International Airport was attacked by suicide bombers and 124 people were killed in the carnage. Al Qaeda-affiliated groups were suspected of carrying out the attack.
On November 3, Musharraf declared a state of emergency. The same month, sectarian violence in Kurram Agency killed 80 people and Islamic militants began to take over buildings in Swat. On November 22, Pakistan was suspended from the Commonwealth for refusing to lift the emergency. On November 26, PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif returned from exile.
On December, 13 Islamist militant groups formed the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which would go on to kill thousands of Pakistanis in the following years. On December 27, suicide bombers assassinated Benazir Bhutto. Dozens perished with her and dozens more were killed in the riots which spread across Pakistan for three days. Enraged mobs ran amok, setting fire to buildings and automobiles, especially in Punjab and Sindh.
Things almost completely fell apart in 2007. However, the country managed to limp back to some “normalcy” but the economy continued to plummet and terrorist attacks became endemic. Things in this respect began to somewhat improve from 2015 onwards. But an economic downturn, the recent spike in terror attacks and intense political polarisation, are once again threatening the country. Are we once again moving towards a year of living dangerously?
(Courtesy: The Dawn)
Writer: Nadeem Paracha
Courtesy: The Pioneer
The re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran is the biggest threat to the Chabahar port. Both India and Iran must muster enough political will and economic rationale to justify its worth
Amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s Foreign Minister, made a brief visit to New Delhi on May 14 to hold talks with his Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj on the impact of US sanctions on his country’s oil industry. His trip came soon after he visited the United Nations. Post his visit, Zarif gave an interview to Fox News Sunday, which is being seen as an attempt to reach out to US President Donald Trump, whose disdain for the media as peddlers of “fake news” is not hidden. Zarif then headed to Qatar to attend a ministerial meeting of the Asia Cooperation Dialogue and then to Russia and Turkmenistan. While Zarif was in Russia, President Hassan Rouhani announced that Iran would cease to abide by certain nuclear limitations but stopped short of violating its 2015 nuclear deal. In this context, it is important that the fourth trip of Zarif in this leg is to India and the third after the US cancelled our sanctions waivers for import of Iranian oil.
During his visit, Zarif held discussions with Swaraj on issues of mutual interest, including the situation in Afghanistan, the development of Chabahar port, cooperation in various fields and regional and international issues. Regarding the ongoing US-Iran tensions, India made its stand clear that any decision on oil purchase from Iran will have to wait for the new Government in Delhi. But here, we will focus on issues concerning the implementation of the Chabahar port project — those as a result of the latest round of sanctions, though the port is out of the immediate purview of bans, and in general.
To clear the air, the purpose of the Chabahar port to be developed by India is entirely different from the Gwadar port in Pakistan being developed by China. The Chabahar is strictly an economic project and not a not a strategic-military one. On the other hand, China does not need Gwadar to trade with Central Asia or Russia — it has shorter land routes to conduct business. Moreover, the “String of Pearls” theory on potential Chinese intentions in the Indian Ocean Region isn’t taken seriously by either the bureaucracy or in think-tank circles. It is seen as an American attempt to sow India-China tensions and the term itself is coined in a US Army War College paper.
Though the Chabahar project is a potential game-changer as it offers a getaway to Central Asia and Europe but as of now, its potential remains largely untapped. Additionally, the US sanctions regime has not just delayed the project since the early 2000s but has also been stifling its growth. It is going to take a few years for Chabahar to register success and it is, perhaps, too early to sing paeans about it. To cite an example, the ambitious plan suffered a blow with manufacturers shying away from supplying essential equipment like cranes and forklifts for the construction of the Iranian port even when US sanctions had not kicked in late last year. Indian promises to delivery ratio, too, have been dismal during this Government’s tenure. Further, while greater funds were promised, much smaller amounts have been released.
This writer spoke to Mohsen Shariatinia, an assistant professor of regional studies at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, when he said that the “Chabahar is a mega project but it’s too early to judge the success or failure of this project.” Speaking about the Mumbai-Mundra-Kandla-Chabahar-Bandar Abbas shipping line, that connects the Indian city of Mumbai to Iranian southern port cities of Chabahar and Bandar Abbas and which was inaugurated only recently, he said that the main problem with this project was about financial resources. The Rouhani administration does not have enough money and the private sector has no economic motivation to invest in this line. If the two countries can reach an agreement on financial resources, a major issue would be resolved.
Shariatinia added that beyond the Indian Government, creating the economic justification of Chabahar for Indian companies is also very important. If they can access Central Asian and Russia markets via the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), they can motivate investment and participation for this project. The future of Chabahar will depend on the political will of the Iranian and Indian Government on the one hand and economic justification of Chabahar for Indian and Iranian companies on the other.
Shariatinia added that in his assessment, the importance of the Russian economy is much more than Central Asian economies. If one takes a look at recent developments in Central Asia, one will notice that China is the biggest player and that there is no crucial capability or opportunity within the central Asian economy to be filled by India, Iran or other countries because China is already a dominant country in this geo-economic scene. The Russian market, on the other hand, has a huge potential for Indian businesses and if India can connect its rising economy with another big economy like Russia, it will be a great opportunity to enhance cooperation between Iran and India along the Chabahar. In my assessment, connecting just Indian and Russian economies will create enough economic justification for INSTC and Chabahar project.
This writer spoke to Behrooz Aghaei, ports and maritime director general of Sistan and Baluchistan province. Chabahar port comes under his jurisdiction. He said that despite what appears at first glance, the “Chabahar port’s exemption from sanctions” granted by the US is not going to help the people of Afghanistan. In fact, it increases transit expenses of its commodities by imposing sanctions on ports (which could have been better alternatives economically) and puts further restrictions on Afghan merchants. Analysis reveals that imposing sanctions on Iran’s ports as the most secure and less expensive routes for Afghanistan implies imposing sanctions on Afghanistan itself.
Aghaei says that as far as India is concerned, the significant point is that Indian commodities that transit to Afghanistan don’t have enough trade volumes to rationalise marine and road transportation expenses. Bearing in mind the trade volume of Afghanistan, Russia and CIS countries, which altogether is more than 16 million tonnes, and the insignificant share of Afghanistan, it can be said that without making possible the transportation of all India’s merchandise to the above-mentioned countries through Chabahar port, the so-called exemption of this port does not make any noticeable change in India’s trade. Therefore, Chabahar port’s exemption will only be a competitive advantage for India if all our merchandise for Afghanistan, Russia and CIS countries could be transported through the port without any restriction on banking transactions and insurance.
Aghaei adds that the noteworthy point about Afghanistan is that the exemption of Chabahar port will only be useful if there is no prohibition on vessels carrying merchandise entering and leaving it as well as on commercial transactions of cargo owners, merchants and shipping lines. Particularly banking transactions should be done without limitation.
The US may not agree to it. Its aim to provide a sanctions waiver to Afghanistan is to allow imports into that country. It is not concerned with the profits made by the Chabahar port. But it definitely will have an impact on the growth of the port. While Iran is under sanctions, Chabahar can never realise its full potential of being a route for Indo-Russia trade and trade to Europe via INSTC. Gwadar got a headstart over Chabahar, which was planned earlier, due to the US-Iran tensions and sanctions. Will we see Chabahar lag behind in trade due to it?
(The writer is an independent journalist working on cyber security and the geopolitics of India’s neighbourhood, focussing on Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Bangladesh)
Writer: Aveek Sen
Courtesy: The Pioneer
While the US has made several U-turns in brokering peace in Afghanistan, India’s biggest policy failure has been the inability to make its only military base in Tajikistan operational
The Afghanistan peace process has undergone nuanced changes and several U-turns under the Trump dispensation. These are worth reflecting upon.
It is no longer Afghan-owned, led and driven, but steered by an American Afghan Pashtun, Zalmay Khalilzad, who was appointed as Special Envoy in September 2018. Before that, it was Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Alice Wells, who ran the show and held at least three structured meetings with the Taliban at Doha and Islamabad, starting February 2018. She had ruled that the US could hold direct talks with the Taliban only after it had first engaged with the Kabul Government. That priority was overturned by the Khalilzad-led peace process, which has completed six rounds, the fifth being the longest, lasting for all of 15 days. The central issues of the framework accord: a) time-frame for withdrawal of US forces; b) no use of Afghan soil for terrorist attacks on the US and its allies; c) dialogue with elected Government in Kabul; and d) ceasefire. The Taliban wants foreign forces to withdraw in six months and not in one-and-a-half years as the US wants; dialogue with the Kabul Government; and ceasefire only after the withdrawal of foreign forces. According to the Taliban, only two issues — the first two — constitute the framework accord.
In his latest State of the Union Address, US President Donald Trump said, “great nations do not fight endless wars.” Last December, he did a U-turn on Afghanistan. Having been reluctantly persuaded by his Generals to stay the course, in a policy speech in August 2017, he lashed out at Pakistan, saying all it has given the US are lies and deceit after receiving $31 billion and praised India for its constructive role in Afghanistan. The then Defence Secretary, James Mattis, issued a “last chance” ultimatum to Pakistan to act against the Taliban sanctuaries which did not work despite intensified drone strikes in Pakistan. Soon, Trump did multiple U-turns: Embraced Pakistan, criticised India for doing five minutes of work like building libraries in Afghanistan and replacing Wells with Khalilzad an as interlocutor to work out an exit deal with the Taliban.
Pakistan is now a key facilitator and de facto guarantor for the Taliban’s attendance at the peace talks. In 2016, former US President Barack Obama ordered a drone strike against Taliban leader Emir Mullah Akhtar Mansour for playing truant on peace talks. Till 18 months ago, Islamabad used to say it has no control, only some influence on the Taliban, despite all its leaders residing in Karachi and Quetta. It says it has applied unprecedented pressure on the Taliban to open talks with Kabul. Now, Kabul has asked Washington to reveal the nature of the relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban. Mohammad Umer Daudzai, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s special envoy and head of the High Peace Council, was in New Delhi last week for consultations. He said: “The Taliban team, which is led by Mullah Baradari, is facilitated by Pakistan.” Rawalpindi will be the main benefactor from any peace deal and after the US’ withdrawal, the vacuum will be filled up by “Iron Brothers” China and Pakistan. The absence of threat from Afghanistan would secure the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), currently under terrorist attacks from the Pakistani Taliban in Afghanistan and the Balochistan Liberation Army. Daudzai told his Indian interlocutors that he did not think the Khalilzad peace process could be completed before the presidential elections in September 2019. He should not be surprised if the US postpones elections a third time and appoints an interim Government as suggested by Pakistan with the Taliban on board.
Surprisingly, nowhere in the discourse is there any mention of US retention of its strategic assets in Afghanistan for which President Obama and former President Karzai signed the bilateral security agreement (BSA) in 2014, which provides US troops access to military bases like Bagram and Kandahar until 2024 and beyond. The agreement also states that the key American ally will not abandon Afghanistan militarily and financially for years after 2014, the then deadline for most foreign forces to withdraw. The treaty agreement was initialled by NSA Rangin Dadfar Spanta and US Ambassador Ryan Crocker. Why is the BSA under wraps? And why has the Taliban not raised the issue of foreign bases unless that is part of an unlikely secret agreement between the two?
If the mercurial Trump were to suddenly order troops’ pullout, it could prove catastrophic. James Dobbins, a former US Envoy to Afghanistan, fears it could lead to a civil war — back to 1996. Gen Kenneth McKenzie of CentCom has said Afghan national security forces will dissolve without US support. In 2014, a report published by Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) had made the assessment that ANSF would be capable of resisting the Taliban independently after December 2014 when International Security Assistance Force combat role ended but would require US air support and assistance in casualty evacuation. When Konduz became the first provincial capital to fall to the Taliban in 2014, all hell broke loose in Pentagon, sparking fear of a strategic collapse.
China, Russia and the US this month issued a joint statement saying that “an inclusive Afghan-led peace process will ensure an orderly and responsible withdrawal.” That is not the direction the Khalizad peace process is headed towards.
India has refused to engage with the Taliban because it will not negotiate with Kabul. New Delhi may be a key strategic US partner but in Afghanistan, Pakistan holds the cards. India’s hesitation to start a back channel with the Taliban is unwise at a time when the organisation is known to be praising its development works and economic assistance in Afghanistan. Gen Bipin Rawat has said he favours engagement with the Taliban. India has not succeeded in creating strategic pressure points like activating its only foreign airbase in Ayni in Tajikistan even as Chinese troops are patrolling Wakhan corridor on Tajikistan’s south-east border, 30 km from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) to prevent Uighurs from returning to Xinjiang.
India secured operational clearance from Russia to use Ayni in 2002. It has not deployed combat aircraft but utilises it for airlifting relief and construction material to Ayni and on to Farkhor from where it is trucked to Afghanistan. It has invested $100 million for renovating Ayni and extending the runway to 3,200 m and built three hangars for MiG 29 bombers. Around 100 Indian Air Force personnel are deployed there for maintenance of the airfield. Still, India cannot use Ayni as an operational air base because of the Russia-China-Pakistan axis. It is one of New Delhi’s foreign policy failures, which would otherwise have acted as a strategic fulcrum between Afghanistan and PoK. Modi 2.0 should work on Ayni.
(The writer is a retired Major General of the Indian Army and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the revamped Integrated Defence Staff)
Writer: Ashok K Mehta
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Uk politicians bless the queen a broken kingdom so now the sun never rises on the british empire again Uk brexit alert!! Stop all your investments/ trade sales deals with uk/british companies who are already sinking in debts so that you do not lose anymore of your assets or lives!
Prime Minister Theresa May and Many UK/British Politicians have betrayed the Queen as well as the good people of the UK and committed treason with lie after lie. Now 31st October 2019 is the extended final European deadline. They introduced the UN Migration Compact and lied about it not being legally binding. Even on smart countries that refused to sign it. Then they will try and rig the EU elections in May 2019. In the meantime they will concoct another anti-Trump hoax AND another fake Russia poisoning/ war threat so that the rest of the world (hopefully NOW…more sane) supports their little Island. They have recently arrested Julian Assange of Wkileaks who with his team only shared the truths and real facts with the rest of the World so that more understanding and more peace can prevail without anymore illegal wars! Julian Assange was forcibly arrested from the Ecuadorian embassy and now the UK Government are preparing to extradite him to the USA so that they can get in the good books of how great they are when they, the UK government and their “un-intelligent” services Christopher David Steele, plotted to destroy President Trump and his election campaign support by creating absolute lies, false Russia links dossier tarnishing Mr. Trump’s character. It is the UK british interferring in the usa elections “not” russia and stopping good american democracy which nearly triggered world war 3 with a peaceful russia and china! The USA government under Donald Trump should also extradite Christopher David Steele and ALL the UK Government ministers/people involved! If USA government wants Julian Assange they should also get Christopher David Steele and his British brainless involved!
The present UK Government has fuelled terrorism not just in the Uk/Europe but across the World with arms sales, regime change soldiers, terrorism funding of groups in Syria, Afghanistan, yemen, Pakistan, Iraq and in India.
The present UK government/many British politicians have fuelled corruption, bribery scams and offshore banking structures for tax evasion benefits for themselves while destroying the lives of good people in the UK and throughout the World. They (The Bank of England) continue to hold (stolen) Venezuela’s Gold reserves of $1.2 Billion that the democratically elected President Nicolas Maduro needs to feed his people and billions of pounds of Indian/ Pakistani black money accounts which would help the governments collect legitimate taxes which would increase the building of rural/urban infrastructures/ education and law systems of both countries.
As Their Brexit unfolds in the coming months and European Countries further boot them out of all businesses/trade deals stop all your investments/ trade sales deals with uk/ british companies who are already sinking in debts so that you do not lose anymore of your assets or lives!
Europe will be safer without UK/British lies, false flag terrorism acts, fake news and war mongering, in fact… the World will be safer if it paid less attention to this little Island which now, they themselves, have made it a “Broken Kingdom”. The many millions of people of the Broken Kingdom are also to blame in many ways starting with whom and what they voted for and elected to be slaves of. They put the British politicians in power to represent them fairly and peacefully BUT they themselves have been betrayed. A lesson for ALL good innocent people across the World and especially now in India Elections…please be very careful when casting your votes at the next elections as you are not just voting for yourselves, you are voting for the future of your children.
The peaceful leaders of the World who wish for more sane lawful ways of life while protecting their own Countries people and their cultures/ customs are President Putin of Russia and President Xi Jinping. They continue to unite good peaceful countries, people in R.I.C.A/SCO with their magnificent vision of OBOR and with unbiased true education with job creations for the people/youth.
The NRIs/PIOs, living the UK after Brexit should take their assets/financial savings out
of Broken Kingdom/British companies/British financial banks and re-invest back into India, Pakistan, R.I.C.A/SCO. It is time to give back more to your motherland and to create more job opportunities and business trade sales so that your Countries people can prosper more peacefully while your children always remember the true history culture and traditions of you and your ancestors who fought to free the Countries lands from the British Raj/British Empire. In the 21st Century with all its technology advancements the Western Mainstream media cannot white wash the real truths with anymore fake news to brainwash or mislead the innocent good true people of this world.
India and Pakistan must peacefully unite on several fronts without having any western political games, western fake news, western false flag terrorism acts or western politicians/businesses
infecting their countries/peoples true values of what is right in this world.
After the India elections of 2019, the new leading party of India must strengthen closer ties with its neighbours of China, Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, South East Asia and Middle East. Closer ties should also be made with African Countries and some South American Countries who are not swayed or puppets of western Imperialism. The new USA Companies and Native American businesses should be included once they have been fully verified and licensed by us at the World Homeland Security/Smartechno Group Of Companies with our C8IND Meta Modules software/ Humint hit squad units so that the risks are completely eliminated while the trade and sales deals/projects are successfully as concluded without any losses. We are there increasing peaceful justice and true education for all good peaceful people irrespective of one’s Country, Culture or Religious Beliefs so that more peace prevails so that our children can grow and blossom being more human caring towards each other. It is not hard to make a decision when you know what your “True” values are!
(Writer is Global Chairman and Group President of The World Homelandsecurity/ Smartechno Group of Companies) www. worldhomelandsecurity.one
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan must avoid projecting his own confusion on to his many impressionable and already confused young followers
On May 5 this year, Prime Minister Imran Khan broke ground for Al-Qadir University of Sufism, Science and Technology in Sohawa. Speaking at the event, Khan said that the university will “link science and spirituality.” He added that spirituality was a “super science” requiring research. He said that the university will impart knowledge about Sufism and also modern technology. Khan then explained that this linking of spirituality (ruhaaniyat) and science will help the youth understand the whole concept of “the state of Madina” — an idea of a perfect “Islamic welfare state” that is being touted by the current Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) regime. To Khan, this idea is directly linked to the original “ideology of Pakistan.”
This will not be the first such university in Pakistan. The PPP Government (2008-2013) established the University of Sufism and Modern Sciences in Bhit Shah town, home to the shrine of the 18th century Sufi saint Shah Abdul Latif Bhittai. Now a full-fledged campus, its stated vision is to “impart modern scientific knowledge and the education of Sufi saints which focuses on tolerance, harmony and brotherhood.”
The idea of this university was born from the concern that over the decades, some rigid and even violent strands of the Muslim faith had permeated society and its education system. These needed to be neutralised by the study and proliferation of the faith’s more esoteric strands such as Sufism, coupled with modern sciences.
Even though such endeavours can be appreciated, I believe Khan wasn’t very lucid in his own mind about the core purpose of the Al-Qadir University. He said he had been planning to build such a university for over 23 years, yet he sounded rather woolly about what it was that he wanted to achieve. In contrast to this, the university in Bhit Shah is clear about what it wants to achieve, ie, to encourage empirical thinking through the teaching of modern sciences and ethics and values derived from the works and examples of famous Sufi saints.
However, being a populist, Khan ended up muddling his own vision by unnecessarily politicising the whole idea of imparting modern knowledge from the platform of Sufism. First of all, one just can’t see how Sufism is in any way linked to his spiel about the “state of Madina” or the so-called “ideology of Pakistan”. The “state of Madina” slogan — and it is nothing more than that — is derived from the musings of some particular segments of India’s Muslim community, who supported the Pakistan Movement. But these segments were not present in the leadership circles of Jinnah’s All India Muslim League (AIML), nor were they part of the region’s Muslim working and peasant classes.
Instead, these segments were largely made up of middle class activists, madrasa students and teachers, imams of mosques and certain Muslim journalists and newspapers of northern India. Understanding the idea of Pakistan as a 20th century reinvention of Islam’s first socio-political set-up in Madina was not on the minds of the country’s founders. As demonstrated by Markus Daechsel in his brilliant study of India’s urban middle class milieu in the first half of the 20th century, rhetorical proclamations about creating an Islamic utopia mostly originated from activist segments among urban middle class Muslims. But the fact is, these were largely ignored by the AIML’s top leadership and intellectuals.
For example, in the 1930s, two young Islamic scholars, Abdus Sattar and Ibrahim Chishti, published a pamphlet called ‘Scheme.’ The pamphlet put forward the idea of a ‘Khuda Mard’ (or a Muslim Übermensch), who would defeat the forces of all other faiths and create an Islamic utopia. Then there were Urdu newspapers, such as Inqilaab, which kept harping about the importance of creating a Muslim country, which would re-enact the seventh century ‘Riyasat-i-Madina.’ These are but just two examples. Daechsel has furnished many more. But none were taken very seriously by the AIML. Instead, its top cadres were steeped in the ideas and works of thinkers such as Sir Syed Ahmad Khan, Syed Ameer Ali, Chiragh Ali and Allama Iqbal, who had worked to construct a ‘modernist’ strand of Islam, which would navigate the faith’s future through science, reason and social and economic modernity.
Khan and his party seem to have adopted the Riyasat-i-Madina idea from the works and slogans of the milieu, which Daechsel investigated in his book. More so, the conceptual (as opposed to empirical) notion of the “state of Madina” was revitalised by an Indian intellectual and author Venkat Dhulipala in his 2015 tome Creating a New Medina: State Power, Islam, and the Quest for Pakistan in Late Colonial North India.
Interestingly, the book became popular in Pakistan among various conservative outfits opposed to the ‘modernist’ version of Pakistan’s creation. American historian Gail Minault points out that Dhulipala’s book — which tries to justify the theological narrative behind Pakistan’s creation — “is not history from above or below but rather the middle”. It largely ignores the ideas of the AIML’s top tier leadership and those associated with the Muslim masses. Instead, Dhulipala uses the ravings of the mentioned middle class segments as his main source material. These segments were largely blocked out by AIML.
Riyasat-i-Madina has nothing to do with the “ideology of Pakistan” either. First, as historians such as Ayesha Jalal and Dr Mubarak Ali have demonstrated, the expression “ideology of Pakistan” or the term “Pakistan ideology” did not come into being till the early 1960s — more than a decade after Pakistan’s creation. The founders used no such term. And even from when it was first coined by the Ayub Khan regime (1958-69) till the mid-1970s, this ‘ideology’ was driven by the whole idea of “Muslim modernism” initiated by Sir Syed and evolved by Iqbal. It became rigid and myopic after 1979 and eventually stagnant — even destructive.
Khan should avoid projecting his own confusion in this context on to his many impressionable young followers, who are already confused by the various experiments conducted by the state in the name of ideology. It should also be known that there is not one but at least three strands of Sufism operating in Pakistan. As Katherine Ewing (in Arguing Sainthood) and Alix Philippon (in State and Nation Building in Pakistan) have shown, there is one version of Sufism, which was created by the state and exhibits Sufi saints as tolerant and passionate but law-abiding men. Then there is a version created by the country’s pop culture, which is basically an artistic variation of the state’s version. And then there is one held by radical Barelvi leaders, who reject the State version of Sufism and bring it in line with their own not very tolerant and law-abiding version.
Let science and faith be independent from each other. They do not need to interact nor clash. A fusion of both in a country like Pakistan will eventually see faith overwhelm science and become increasingly political and dogmatic. This is neither beneficial for faith nor to science.
Writer: Nadeem Paracha
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Amid a vicious circle of mistrust between the US and China, what is quite likely to happen is that the latter will slide into a huge recession, dragging the rest of the world behind it. Maybe not as bad as 2008 but very bad and probably very long
US President Donald Trump is playing the hard-ball with China over trade and the worry-warts are fretting that he’s going to start a real trade war by accident. The bigger threat, however, is that he will push first China and then the whole world into a deep recession.
It’s been 10 years since the last recession (2008-09) and that one was a doozy. Recessions tend to come around once a decade, so one is due about now anyway — and the Chinese economy is so shaky that almost any serious shock can topple it into the pit. The rest of the world will follow.
A week ago, according to both sides, the US-China trade deal was almost done, but then (according to Washington) China started to “renege” on parts of the deal it had earlier agreed to. Washington is probably telling the truth about that: It’s practically standard in the closing stages of any negotiation with the Chinese Government.
So, Trump responded by imposing heavy new tariffs on Chinese exports, to come into effect in less than a week’s time unless they back off. According to his Twitter-storm, the existing tariff of 10 per cent on $200 billion of Chinese exports to the United States will more than double to 25 per cent. In another move, Trump ordered tariff hike on remaining Chinese imports valued at $325 billion and will face 25 per cent customs duties.
Decades of experience in the Manhattan real estate market have taught Donald Trump to recognise the smell of fear and he is right: The Chinese are terrified. But he knows nothing about trade or the Chinese economy, so he doesn’t understand the implications of that. (This is a guy who boasts that the Chinese are having to pay these new tariffs. It is, of course, the American importers who pay.)
The Chinese leaders are terrified because their economy is already trembling on the brink of a major recession. They dodged the last one in 2008 by flooding the economy with cheap credit and setting off an investment boom that kept employment high, especially in construction. But that trick only works once.
All four corners of almost every major intersection in the hundred biggest Chinese cities are now occupied by ‘dark towers’: Forty or 50-storeyed apartment buildings with few or no occupants. It would take an estimated four years with no new construction whatsoever to sell off the currently unsold housing stock.
And the building is still going on, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. The vaunted six per cent annual growth in the Chinese economy is just creative accounting. At least half of that is actually spending on white elephant projects like the dark towers that create employment but will never produce an adequate return on investment.
Meanwhile, the real Chinese economy (annual growth rate between two per cent and three per cent) is slowing to a near-stall. Last year, for the first time in a quarter-century, new car sales in China actually fell by almost six per cent. A big hit to its exports to the US, its biggest single customer, could tip it over the edge.
China is now such a big player that the rest of the world economy would probably follow it into a recession — and it would be much worse than the usual couple of years of slow or no growth because none of the major players has really recovered from the last recession yet. The main way Governments fight recessions is by cutting interest rate, but that is still near zero in most big economies from the drastic cuts in interest last time round. Moreover, Government debt is much higher than it was a decade ago and there would be no public support for bailing out the banks with the taxpayers’ money again.
“We’re in much worse shape to deal with whatever shocks come along than we were ten years ago,” said Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman in a recent Bloomberg interview. China is in particularly bad shape. Its total debt, even according to the untrustworthy official figures, is nearing three times its GDP, which is when the alarm bells usually start ringing. So what happens if Trump’s huge tariff hikes do not force an immediate Chinese surrender on whatever issues remain in contention in the trade talks? What if Chinese President Xi Jinping and his people decide to tough it out rather than lose a lot of face? What is quite likely to happen is that China slides into a huge recession, dragging the rest of the world behind it. Maybe not as bad as 2008, but very bad and probably very long.
Something else might happen too. The Chinese version of the ‘social contract’ is that power and privileges of the post-Communist autocracy that runs the country will be tolerated as long as people’s living standards rise rapidly. But they are already stagnating. How would the Chinese public react if living standards actually begin to fall? Really badly, in all likelihood. We live in interesting times.
(The writer’s new book is Growing Pains: The Future of Democracy and Work)
Writer: Gwynne Dyer
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Though Gen Bajwa is likely to retire soon, the successors are expected to keep the water boiling, as peace delegitimize the edifice, rationale and scale of the Pak military
General-turned Pakistani President, Pervez Musharraf, never moved into the Aiwan-e-Sadr (official presidential palace) of Pakistan but chose to stay in the real centre of power in the Pakistani military establishment ie, the Army House at Rawalpindi. The current Army House was taken over by the Pakistani military after disposing of its previous resident in the form of its democratically elected Prime Minister, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. Today, it remains the cynosure, epicenter and the final pit-stop for all significant approvals and substantial decision-making. The Army House of the Pakistani Chief of Army Staff (COAS) is practically the more important address as compared to the Chaklala residence of the nominally higher Pakistani Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC). Frequently, the occupants of the Army House have tended to overstay their mandated tenures. The Pakistani Army is under its 16th head (10th Chief of Army Staff and six previous Commander-in-Chiefs); whereas its genealogical other-half of the Indian Army is already under its 26th Chief of Army Staff (not counting the earlier four Commander-in-Chiefs). In the Pakistani narrative, the military chiefs who extended their tenures, like Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq and Pervez Musharraf, too, appropriated the role of Presidents; whereas the more recent ones like Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Raheel Sharif preferred to pull the strings from behind the façade of a civilian and democratically-elected Government.
The current Pakistani Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, is seemingly following the footsteps of his predecessor, Gen Raheel Sharif, and has promised to “retire” on time at the end of his three-year tenure in November 2019. On November 28, 2016, the fourth in seniority, General Qamar Bajwa from the 16th Baloch Regiment, superseded two other officers to start his three-year tenure as the Chief of Army Staff. General Raheel Sharif, too, had superseded two senior officers — in both these cases their appointment was initiated by former Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif, ostensibly to get a “non-political” officer.
However, all five Pakistani COASs, who were sworn by Nawaz Sharif, gave him subsequent grief, including Gen Waheed Kakar (forced Sharif to resign), Gen Jehangir Karamat (forced him into premature retirement), Gen Pervez Musharraf (ousted him) and later Raheel Sharif and Qamar Bajwa, who bore no subsequent favour or loyalty to Sharif to bail him out politically. In fact, the unmistakable hand of the Pakistani Army under Gen Qamar Bajwa was omnipresent in ushering in the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Government of Imran Khan. Earlier, murmurs of Pakistani Army’s handiwork in creating civic disturbances, then playing mediator and finally managing political perceptions were the hallmark of Bajwa’s looming, though silent shadow from Rawalpindi. Yet he kept on reiterating that irrespective of the incumbent, the COAS — the institution of the Pakistani Army — remains independent, decisive and wholly non-interfering in non-military matters.
Like his immediate predecessor, Gen Bajwa, too, has maintained public reticence and only allowed his work to do the talking. In his tenure, there has been no realistic break from the past on the part of the Pakistani Army and its machinations in Afghanistan and India, much to the consternation of both the countries.
Pakistan’s continued patronage of the likes of JeM chief Masood Azhar remained intact till it became imperative to publicly disavow the terrorist in the face of pressure from the international community and multilateral agencies like the UN and the latest Achilles heel, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which threatens to “blacklist” Pakistan.
Now, Gen Bajwa is in the last leg of his mandated three-year tenure and would be in a “legacy mode” to leave a definitive imprint of his reign. If Gen Raheel Sharif could appropriate ‘Operation Zarb-e-Azb’ as his legacy, Gen Bajwa could stake claim to the relative success of ‘Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad’ and to the whispered ‘Bajwa Doctrine’ that ostensibly counter-posits the Pakistani perspective in the Afghan-US-Pakistan triad.
Despite the recent embarrassment emanating from the Masood Azhar episode and the grovelling for international finances towards its empty coffers (done by the civilian Government), the Pakistani military is back in the saddle on the crucial Afghan front, with the US forced into co-opting the eager Pakistanis in the that nation’s future.
Gen Bajwa has also managed to keep the Chinese in good humour with a dedicated division of 15,000 soldiers to secure the various infrastructural elements of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Spin-doctoring the narrative to suit the Pakistani ears, the claimed “capture” of Indian commanding officer Kulbhushan Jadhav and Indian fighter pilot Abhinandan Varthaman has retained the halo for the “apolitical” and professional Pakistani Army.
Within its own “uniformed” fraternity, the budgets towards the Pakistani military and its expansive commercial activities remain as healthy as ever with the template of plausible-deniability readily available for any act of misdemeanour, for which the politicos carry the public can. The formula of fronting Islamabad (civil politicians), while retaining the essential levers in Rawalpindi (military headquarters) has been working flawlessly, post the Pervez Musharraf era of direct military takeover.
Lt General Sarfraz Sattar (Corps Commander, Multan) would be the senior most for the appointment as the next Pakistani COAS or CJCSC in November, though historically, seniority is no guarantee for the appointment and essentially Imran Khan will toe the advice of the Pakistani military. Like his predecessor and possibly his successor (whoever that is), Gen Bajwa personified the professional face of the Pakistani military with no supposed personal affiliation to overt politics or religiosity, whilst simultaneously pandering to the duplicitous instincts of retaining the “terror industry” that is outwardly facing towards India, Afghanistan and Iran. This posturing retained the relevance, credibility and emotions in the face of a tangible “enemy”, ie, India.
Gen Bajwa and his successor are expected to keep the waters boiling selectively as peace delegitimize the edifice, rationale and scale of the Pakistani military. The proverbial “bleed with thousand cuts” has been the successful formula as opposed to a full-on or even a “theatre -level” confrontation that could end up embarrassingly for the Pakistanis as did Kargil. Now, three Chiefs in a row would have walked a consistent pattern and as Gen Bajwa makes way for the 11th COAS, more of the same is expected, “Naya Pakistan” notwithstanding.
(The writer, a military veteran, is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry)
Writer: Bhopinder Singh
Courtesy: The Pioneer
While remembering the events of 1919 and seeking to better integrate the spirit of May 4 into the party’s narrative, the student revolt of 1989 has been completely blacked out
China is suffering from a strange disease, a sort of selective amnesia — certain things from the past are clearly remembered, while other events seem to have been completely erased from the nation’s collective memory (or at least from the party’s annals). Take the May Fourth Movement, which was recently celebrated with much fanfare in every corner of the Middle Kingdom. In this case, the memory of the event, which occurred a hundred years ago, is absolutely clear.
Following the 1911 Revolution in China, the Manchu (Qing) dynasty disintegrated, triggering the fall of imperial rule. Eight years later, the May Fourth Movement took place in the Chinese capital where students started protesting against the nationalist Government’s weak response to the Treaty of Versailles, allowing Japan to control the territories surrendered by Germany in Shandong.
On the morning of May 4, 1919, student representatives from 13 different local universities met in Beijing and drafted five resolutions, in particular, to oppose the granting of Shandong to the Japanese and the creation of a Beijing student union. Later in the afternoon, some 3,000 students of Beijing University marched to Tiananmen Square, shouting slogans such as “struggle for the sovereignty externally, get rid of the national traitors at home” and “don’t sign the Versailles Treaty.”
Nobody can deny that it was a true revolution. Hundred years later, Chinese President Xi Jinping affirmed that patriotism was the core spirit of the 1919 event. He added that the May Fourth Movement inspired the ambition and confidence of the Chinese people and the nation to realise national rejuvenation. “It was also a great enlightenment and new cultural movement of disseminating new thought, new culture and new knowledge,” Xi said.
The President urged Chinese youth “in the new era” to love the country, the party and adhere to the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC)…by the way, where was the party in 1919? Seventy years later, another student revolution took place on Tiananmen Square in Beijing and the Communist Party has no remembrance of it.
The aspiration of the students may have been very similar: A craving for a fairer world, more freedom for the youth to express themselves, a more democratic system (termed the ‘Fifth Modernisation’) and greater transparency and participation in the state’s affairs. A power struggle at the top of the party ended with the decision to send tanks on to the Square on June 4, 1989, which resulted in the death of some 3,000 youths.
The Tiananmen papers, prefaced by a Chinese scholar, Andrew Nathan, gave a clear picture of the decision process inside the Politburo, which led to the massacre. Nathan wrote: “For the first time ever, reports and minutes have surfaced that provide a revealing and potentially explosive view of decision-making at the highest levels of the Government and party in the People’s Republic of China (PRC)…the protests were ultimately ended by force, including the bloody clearing of Beijing streets by troops using live ammunition. The tragic event was one of the most important in the history of communist China and its consequences are still being felt.”
This has completely been blacked out by Beijing. In May 1968, students in France and elsewhere in Europe also dreamt of a better world, but the two-month revolution, often violent, did not result in any casualty, neither from the students nor the police side.
Wang Xiangwei, a former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post, wrote an editorial piece for the Hong-Kong newspaper. After mentioning the similarities between the student movement in 1919 and 1989, he commented: “But the Government will disregard the 30th anniversary of another student demonstration in 1989 that preceded its bloody crackdown on June 4. The latter protest may be less seminal in China’s modern history, but its core spirit should not be obscured.”
Wang also noted that before the beginning of the May 4 celebrations, Xi chaired a meeting of the Politburo “to discuss ways to enhance study into the movement’s history and significance. The President seeks to better integrate the spirit of May 4 into the party’s narrative that only it can lead the country’s youth to his goal of national rejuvenation.”
The sad fact is that today, China is probably worse off than in 1989. Sycophancy and repression have reached new heights. Recently, the regime re-established an alliance of nine colleges, called the “Yanhe University Talent Training Alliance,” in order to perpetuate what is called the Yan’an Red DNA. Yan’an was the place where the Long March ended; it later became the centre of the Chinese communist revolution. In the early years, nine university institutions were set up to train the next generation of communist cadres. It was called the ‘Red DNA college’, responsible for spreading the “fire of the Chinese revolution” to the whole country.
Another instance, during the cultural revolution, party committees in universities made the students report on the anti-party faculty members.
After the 1989 Tiananmen massacre, the regime systematically established student informants in key Chinese universities. In 2005, the arrangement was expanded to almost every university and even some high schools explained the well-informed site Chinascope: “Although on the surface, the purpose is to collect information on academic activities, the student informants are the ears and eyes of the communist party authorities in the universities.” One could multiply the examples. One can just guess that China’s freedom-loving students will again revolt one day.
Incidentally, in 1989, the Indian Government ordered the state television to pare down the Tiananmen coverage to the barest minimum. Analyst C Raja Mohan explained: “The Government’s monopoly over television helped Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi signal Beijing that India would not revel in China’s domestic troubles and offer some political empathy instead.”
Rajiv Gandhi had travelled to China barely six months earlier. Sometimes, it is easier to be Alzeimerish.
(The writer is an expert on India-China relations)
Writer: Claude Arpi
Courtesy: The Pioneer
The Easter Sunday self-inflicted tragedy was in military parlance a total command failure, which is likely to take Sri Lanka a decade back
Neither Sherlock Holmes nor Alfred Hitchcock would have been mystified by intelligence oversights that led to one of the world’s most dastardly terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka last month. Simply because it was a case of just connecting the dots — so detailed and specific were the tip-offs. According to a top secret intelligence memo of April 9 (there were two others before the fateful day dawned on Easter Sunday), the country’s intelligence chief had warned the Inspector General of Police that “Zahran Hashim of the National Tawheed Jamaat and his associates were planning to carry out suicide terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka shortly.” How this classified warning was not shared with President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe is a riddle. Rarely has there been an intelligence goof-up of this magnitude in recent memory.
That such a catastrophic intelligence foul-up took place in Sri Lanka, which only a decade ago had destroyed the invincible Velupillai Prabhakaran-led Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), ending root and branch a 30-year-long deadly insurgency and becoming the first country to achieve such a feat in the 21st century, is intriguing. The Army, Navy and Air Force have held annual international seminars in Colombo to showcase their military successes, including the Army’s prowess in deep penetration intelligence acquisition skills. According to the then Defence Secretary and brother of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, now a presidential hopeful for the elections this year, the present Government dismantled the elaborate intelligence and surveillance network of 5,000 personnel he had set up in 2011 across the country, including the Muslim majority areas of the east.
Nine suicide bombers, including one woman, struck in coordinated attacks followed by two or three hara-kiri acts by family members and associates of the mastermind Hashim. It is now known that the suicide squad consisted of 15 members and the support group was 150 of whom 100 cadres have been arrested. Thirty-six Sri Lankans are reported to have gone to fight with the Islamic State in Syria and many had returned. The preparation for serial human bombing of this scale and sophistication would have taken months if not years. Sirisena has revealed that planning for the attacks started in Syria in 2017. How this massive diabolical plot escaped detection is a mystery. The Sri Lankan Army Commander, Lt Gen Mahesh Senanayake, in an interview to BBC, has said that the suicide bombers “got some sort of training” in Kashmir and Kerala. This should worry India. Given the severe communal polarisation exacerbated by the elections, major terrorist attacks are not unlikely in India in the near future.
In 2017, I retraced my times with the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) 30 years ago in the east, travelling through Muslim majority Ampara and Kalmunai areas near Batticaloa and saw an increased density of population, mosques and madrassas as also prosperity and development. The Muslims were targeted by the LTTE notably in their massacre in Sri Lanka’s biggest mosque in Kattankudy near Batticaloa in the 1990s. (Kattankudy is the hometown of Hashim, the mastermind of the attacks and its training ground). Later, the Sinhala Buddhist extremists Bodu Bala Sena (BBS), ostensibly supported by the Government, targetted Muslims periodically from 2013, culminating in the big anti-Muslin riots in Kandy last year, which led to the Government declaring an Emergency. The trigger for Muslim alienation and radicalisation is the BBS attacks and objections to hijab and halal. How the Government did not pick up these straws in the wind is an enigma.
Initially, the Government ascribed the horrific attacks to the Islamic State (IS)-inspired Sri Lankan Muslim National Thowheed Jamath (NTJ) as retaliation for Christchurch till IS supremo Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi claimed responsibility as revenge for loss of Baghouz, the caliphate’s last bastion in Syria. Sri Lanka’s own counter-terrorism czar, the Singapore-based Rohan Gunaratna, confirmed that IS has created support groups around the world and NTJ has joined the IS.
The rift and infighting between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe is a folklore. The politics of the carnage is beguiling. Sirisena has squarely blamed the Prime Minister, the Defence Secretary and the Inspector General Police and said he was kept in the dark and that he would reconstitute security structures. On his part, Wickremesinghe said, “I did not know…still we have to take responsibility for that part of Government machinery that did not work.” Sirisena is not only the Defence Minister but has also kept the Law and Order Ministry with him, some say, unconstitutionally. This has kept Wickremesinghe quarantined from defence and security, including national security council meetings. That the left hand did not know what the right hand was doing is the black hole in the security system.
Former Army Commander General Sarath Fonseka was the key architect of victory of the LTTE but he fell out with the old regime’s top leaders, the Rajapaksas. The Sirisena Government appointed Fonseka a Field Marshal and a Minister. Speaking in the Emergency debate in Parliament after the bombings, Fonseka lambasted his own Government, including Srisena, Wickremesinghe and other defence and intelligence officials. Demands for making Fonseka Minister for law and order are increasing.
Sri Lanka is under Emergency rule with the Prevention of Terrorism Act in place but is likely to be replaced with the new counter-terrorism Bill. It is the first country to ban the face veil in South Asia. Both the curfew and ban on social media were lifted after a week. The preliminary report on the bombings has been completed, which Sirisena is keeping close to his chest. A new military command territorially, including parts of west and northwest provinces, including Colombo and Puttalam and strangely called Overall Operational Command, has been established and coastal security beefed up. India’s offer of sending its elite National Security Guards has been politely rejected. The joke in Colombo is about how NSG messed up in Mumbai in 2008 taking four days to complete the operation. Tongue-in-cheek Sri Lankan military veterans say what the IPKF started and did not complete, we finished.
Over-indulgent in its conquest of LTTE, Sri Lanka let its guard down. A dysfunctional cohabitation Government has been rent apart by catastrophic terrorist attacks, which are likely to take Sri Lanka a decade back. The Easter Sunday self-inflicted tragedy was in military parlance a total command failure. That neither the Prime Minister nor President has resigned is to borrow a famous war time Churchillian one liner: A riddle wrapped in a mystery surrounded by an enigma.
(The writer is a retired Major General of the Indian Army and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the revamped Integrated Defence Staff)
Writer: Ashok K Mehta
Courtesy: The Pioneer
The local militant Islamist group involved in the attacks neither had the sophistication nor the ability to carry out such attacks. It was clearly steered more by the ISI than IS
Despite all the confusion, carnage and horror of the Sri Lankan suicide bomb attacks, that killed at least 359 people and left hundreds more injured, one thing that is abundantly clear is the utter futility of such attempts by religious bigots to change the world to their likeness. Of course, there is also a stark reality that Governments around the world are forced to confront and for which politicians pay a heavy price: That despite the strictest of controls imposed, little can actually be done to control the turn of such events. In the case of Sri Lanka, the security and intelligence establishment appeared to have become complacent if not comatose after it defeated the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 2009.
Politicians try and make a living by trying to convince the citizens that they have the necessary expertise and required abilities if given a free hand to make their lives safe, secure and comfortable. Nothing can be further from the truth as at the end of the day, howsoever sophisticated and technology-dependent the data collection, analysis and dissemination process may be, they are all finally subject to the frailties and follies of human beings.
It has emerged that in the case of Sri Lanka, actionable intelligence provided by Indian agencies was not acted upon because of the on-going factional fight between President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. This apart, there’s also the perception that these agencies were keen on creating a rift between Sri Lanka and Pakistan over the issue. Also, there may well have been a sense of complacency, not least given the common perception that Indian agencies rarely get it right — the Pulwama tragedy being the latest one in a long line of such disasters.
Fortunately, the Sri Lankan Government did move rapidly after the attacks. Once it had overcome the initial shock, it was able to identify the perpetrators and put in place a series of measures that have till now prevented a repeat of such attacks from being executed. Also, except for a couple of minor incidents, they have been able to prevent reprisals against the Muslim community, the overwhelming majority of whose members are upright and loyal citizens, who were equally shocked and incensed by the senseless atrocities perpetrated in the name of their religion. This ensured that much of the subsequent intelligence that enabled the police and security forces to stop further attacks was provided from within the community.
Finally, one could not help but appreciate Prime Minister Wickremesinghe’s prompt action to publicly apologise for the inability of his Government to forestall the tragedy. He further ensured accountability by sacking the defence secretary and police chief for inaction on their part and for deliberately withholding intelligence about possible terrorist attacks. Our political leadership will do well to learn from this. They must keep their egos under control and focus on accountability every time they come short instead of clinging on to their chairs as they all do.
Interestingly, while the Islamic State (IS) lost no time in claiming responsibility for the attacks, its ability to actually coordinate and execute such a sophisticated and complex attack, involving seven suicide bombers, seems quite doubtful. The fact that it is on the run obviously makes organising such an attack extremely challenging, though it may well have been able to radicalise the perpetrators online.
On the other hand, dismissing their involvement as out of hand would also be quite foolish, given that its ideology has attracted a large number of followers in recent years. We have already seen some pointers towards this in our neighbourhood as well as in Jammu & Kashmir. Moreover, we must also remember that a vast number of our population emigrates to the Middle East in search of jobs and it is not inconceivable that some among these workers may well have fallen prey to this radical ideology and returned to South Asia to carry forward the Islamic State’s war against non-believers. It will indeed be interesting to learn what interrogations of suspects — captured before they were able to act — brings out.
Then there is, of course, the alternative narrative that suggests the involvement of Pakistan’s Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) along with Chinese intelligence to create an environment within the country that can enable former President Mahendra Rajapaksa to once again win the presidential hustings due in the near future. That he was rabidly anti-Indian in his past two tenures as President is not under doubt as also his wholehearted support for Pakistan and China.
This perception is supported by the belief that Indian agencies were able to provide such detailed actionable intelligence only because they had caught and interrogated some members of a module, connected to the perpetrators at Coimbatore.
It has been a long-standing belief within our security and intelligence community that after the withdrawal of the Indian Peace Keeping Force from Sri Lanka and the subsequent refusal of the Indian Government to supply the Sri Lankan armed forces with weapons, the Sri Lankan Government turned to Pakistan for assistance. It is at this time that Pakistan’s ISI established a foothold
in that island nation, which was used to radicalise, train, arm and employ Islamists for operations in South India.
Let us not forget that Sri Lankan Muslims have sided with Pakistan since the Partition. And have been united by the “big” presence of India in the neighbourhood to coalesce their mutual interests. Let us also not forget that during the 1971 Liberation War of Bangladesh, when India withdrew landing and overflight rights to Pakistan, Sri Lanka extended landing and refuelling facilities to Pakistan International Airlines. As the Pakistan Army launched operations against the Mukti Bahini, Pakistani military aircraft landed and took off from the Katunayake international airport. While Sri Lanka insisted these aircraft were civilian, there were reports that they actually carried armed troops. And as the Tamil separatists also kept the island Muslims at bay, Pakistan’s ISI got actively involved in the local government’s counter-offensive strategies.
In this particular case, while there is the possibility that these elements may well have acted independently, it could just as well have been a “false flag” operation to push the blame on cadres of the Islamic State, who in their present condition, would have been more than happy to accept responsibility for obvious reasons.
One way or the other, the National Thowheeth Jama’ath, the local militant Islamist group involved in the attacks, neither had the sophistication nor the ability to carry out such attacks and clearly unknown foreign organisations provided them with the necessary technical and logistic support.
Finally, in our context, there have been credible reports that Islamists have been successful in establishing a fairly strong presence in States such as West Bengal and Kerala, where they now seem to be becoming increasingly assertive. They have got away with this primarily because local Governments have been reluctant to act against them in the foolish hope that by doing so, they would gain the support of the Muslim community to consolidate power. This bodes ill for the country in the long run and requires the Union Government to undertake necessary measures, some of which may well make them unpopular, if we are to avoid a turbulent and extremely violent future.
(The writer, a military veteran, a consultant with the Observer Research Foundation and a Senior Visiting Fellow with The Peninsula Foundation, Chennai)
Writer: Deepak Sinha
Courtesy: The Pioneer
In the wake of the Easter blasts,the government has found overwhelming support from Lankan Muslims who back it’s crackdown methods against the Islamists. The success of the efforts still hinge on the narrative constructed by the Lankan Govt The Easter Sunday fidayeen attacks in Sri Lanka are unique for three reasons. First, the island nation — unlike its neighbours: India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh — had not seen till then any terror act by proclaimed Islamist forces. Second, the perpetrator ISIS, despite being badly battered and ousted from the land of its Caliphate just a month before, has told the world loud and clear that it still has potential to surprise new territories with its lethal action.
Third, the curious selection of the island nation for the suicide blasts by ISIS, in connivance with Lankan-based National Thowheeth Jamaath, raises a pertinent question: Whether the erstwhile ethnic divide in Sri Lanka was reborn in religious radicalisation?
However as there has never been any systemic discrimination against Muslims in the Sri Lanka — an essential ingredient for the breeding of religious radicals — this question warrants special attention, also because experience shows that Islamist forces, particularly ISIS, have flourished only in those regions which are afflicted with pre-existing conflicts – sectarian, ethnic, or religious.
Despite local and global Intelligence reports suggesting that National Thowheeth Jamaath and its south Indian cohorts have been in touch with ISIS for long, the choice of Sri Lanka for the revolting attacks is more to do with the peaceful island nation being a safe target for ISIS, which is desperate to stay in the reckoning for global Islamist terror leadership. ISIS, which wielded enormous control over huge area stretching from eastern Iraq to western Syria till March this year, is straining every nerve to peddle a global narrative that its loss of 88,000km territory doesn’t mean that ISIS has lost its Islamist appeal for global jehad. And here it needed a solid platform to announce the same.
Seen in this context, the reclusive ISIS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi made the first appearance in five years, before the global media in a video message to readily claim the responsibility for the Lankan terror attacks. He used the occasion to outline the crumbling outfit’s vision, calling for jehad via war of attrition, and insisting on its propaganda of robust presence in South-east Asia, including the Philippines.
Baghdadi also exhorted the “believers” for hijrah (migration) to the Afghanistan-Pakistan region for recruitment of jehadis. The ramifications can be found in Sri Lanka Army Commander Lieutenant General Mahesh Senanayake’s interview to the BBC in which he claimed that some of the “suicide bombers visited Kashmir and Kerala for some sorts of training or to make some more links with other foreign outfits”. Maybe this explains why Sri Lanka became the sure-shot target for homeless Baghdadi, who has lost his last redoubt in Syria.
Although Baghdadi claims caliphate is not bound by the geography, he is raring to gain lost ground in Iraq and Syria. ISIS already has a covert network in Iraq. Therefore, it is essential that the coalition forces should maintain its hold in the areas of ISIS caliphate till it destroys the outfit’s raison d’être.
As for Sri Lanka, the island nation needs to ensure ISIS doesn’t succeed in having local franchises there. Considering the sophistication of the highly coordinated attacks all by Lankan nationals, the bigger riddle for Colombo is to unravel whether any of its citizen ever fought for ISIS outside the country, and, more specifically, to ensure, if they did, they land in prison.
Although Sri Lankan Muslims have supported the Government’s crackdown methods against the Islamists in the wake of the Easter bombings, the success of the efforts hinges on the narrative the Government is able to construct. Any ostentatious action against religious-cultural symbol is fraught with the danger of spawning more radicals born out of the narrative of the State operation. Therefore, the burqa (face veil) ban may be a pragmatic decision — considering the facts that some of women accomplices of the suicide bombers had fled the scene in burqa — for the time being till the raids and investigation are over, the ban should be lifted as soon as possible before Islamist outfits can exploit the situation with newfound purpose and energy.
(The writer is Associate Editor & News Editor, The Pioneer)
Writer: Swarn Kumar Anand
Courtesy: The Pioneer
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