With the absence of Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi, Dravidian parties have so far managed to tide over the political slugfest by national players. But will their strategy work this time?
There is one striking similarity between Carlos Bilardo, manager of the 1986 World Cup winning Argentina national football team, and the late J Jayalalithaa, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) supremo. Whenever Bolardo was asked about the composition of his team for the World Cup matches, he had a standard reply: “My team will feature Diego Maradona and 10 other players. That’s all I have to say.” Such was his trust and confidence in the Argentine superstar.
At the time of the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa’s exhortation to the voters was somewhat the same: “There will be a candidate contesting in the two leaves symbol of the party. Please elect him/her.” This was the essence of Jayalalithaa’s election campaign speech. During the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) had fielded A Raja, the 2G Spectrum tainted former Union communications Minister from the Nilgiris, which the party felt would be a safe constituency. Jayalalithaa sprang a surprise by nominating C Gopalakrishnan, a political lightweight from Nilgiris.
When asked about his fate in the contest against the DMK heavyweight, Gopalakrishnan replied: “Sir, I am going to win hands-down because I was hand picked by Amma. She had asked the electorate to vote for me and they would oblige Amma.” Gopalakrishnan won by a margin of more than 1,20,000 votes. While J Gopikrishnan of The Pioneer, through his superb investigating reports, unseated A Raja from the Union Council of Ministers, Gopalakrishnan demolished the “halo” around the DMK leader by waving Jayalalithaa’s picture.
However, these are things of the past. Cut to 2019, and there is neither Jayalalithaa nor Karunanidhi around. While the disintegration of the AIADMK has picked up momentum, the DMK’s end, too, is not far off. It will be reflected in the Lok Sabha election results of 2019. MK Stalin, the DMK chief, who succeeded his father Karunanidhi (the undisputed party president for almost five decades) is nowhere near the latter’s intelligence. His only unique selling proposition is his hatred for Hindutva and the BJP. His only offer to the people of Tamil Nadu is that he would bring in a stable and steady Government. Stalin feels that by humiliating the Hindus, he may be able to consolidate the minority votes of the State.
Despite an image make-over he underwent as per the directives of his son-in-law, Stalin remains the same old self. Unlike his father, who could charm the crowd with his one-liners and dramatised dialogues, Stalin is a poor communicator. Despite wearing black goggles, Karunanidhi was a success with women voters among the crowd, whom he could amuse with spicy and witty dialogues. While Jayalalithaa did not bother to groom a second-line leadership in the AIADMK, Karunanidhi did not allow anybody outside his immediate family raise their heads in the party. Though he wanted to anoint MK Muthu, his elder son born to Padmavathi, his first wife, Muthu ended up as a wayward youth, finding solace in alcohol. He had everything at his command. An obliging father, whose only mission was to see Muthu emerge the numero uno in DMK politics and finally as the Chief Minister to keep the family flag flying. Karunanidhi ousted MGR from the party to facilitate Muthu’s entry into the top league of the DMK. But MGR retaliated by launching the AIADMK and the people of Tamil Nadu, who were fed up with the kind of politics played by Karunanidhi and his family, elected the former with a huge majority. Since 1977, when MGR became the Chief Minister, till his passing away in December 1987, Karunanidhi was in political wilderness.
There was a split in the AIADMK immediately after the demise of MGR and this helped the DMK bounce back. In the Assembly election held in 1989, the DMK bagged 150 seats on its own. The faction of AIADMK headed by Jayalalithaa won 27 seats while the faction headed by Janaki Ramachandran (widow of MGR) had to contend with just two seats. But the women saw the writing on the wall that the split in the AIADMK would benefit only the Karunanidhi clan. They buried the hatchet, merged the factions and Janaki made a dignified exit from politics. Karunanidhi thoroughly underestimated Jayalalithaa and joined hands with secessionist forces operating in the State. Following the murder of Rajiv Gandhi, who was electioneering at Sriperumbudur near Chennai during the Lok Sabha election of 1991, by the hired assassins of the LTTE and the all-round failure of law and order situation in the State, the Karunanidhi Government was dismissed by the then Chandrasekhar headed Union Government.
The truth is that people elected Karunanidhi in 1989, 1996 and 2006 out of anger and angst as they had no other option. Karunanidhi saw to it that the Congress, which ruled the State uninterrupted till 1967, became weak and ridden with groups. The only option for the electorate was the AIADMK, which had a semblance of nationalism and democracy in it. For the DMK, democracy began and ended at the Gopalapuram residence of Karunanidhi and in the houses of his other two wives and nephew Murasoli Maran.
But Karunanidhi kept his obsession for dynasty under cover, thanks to his expertise in double-speak. Whoever questioned the legality of Stalin’s emergence as his heir, ended up outside the party headquarters. The list is long and includes Vaiko, the eternal rebel and V R Nedumchezhiyan, described as the man with a golden tongue. Now, Stalin is surrounded by acolytes and a cabal of wheeler dealers.
Karunanidhi, who had vehemently opposed Hindutva and the BJP, did not think twice before extending support to the BJP in 1989. The DMK can never survive without the life support it gets from the power of office. Karunanidhi and Stalin are always willing to join hands with any forces which offer them uninterrupted “power”. That’s why they jumped from the National Front Government of VP Singh in 1989 to the Deve Gowda Government of 1996 and then to the NDA Government led by Vajpayee in 1999. When they saw that the possibility of the NDA coming back to power in 2004 was bleak, Karunanidhi crossed over to the Congress’ camp and emerged as the “critical component” of the UPA. For the next nine years, the DMK was in charge of the money spinning Ministries, popularly known as Any Time Money (ATM) ministries.
Since 2011, the DMK has been out of power in Tamil Nadu while in New Delhi, it remains out of Government since 2013. Stalin hopes that the weakening of the AIADMK would help him regain power in Tamil Nadu as a split in AIADMK votes would benefit only the DMK. As pointed out earlier, the Congress is a weak entity in the State though there are ‘paper tigers’ like P Chidambaram and Mani Shankar Aiyer. “There are more leaders and groups in the Congress than the party cadre,” said N Kalyanasundaram, chronicler of Tamil Nadu politics. The Congress had survived in Tamil Nadu over the years only by riding piggyback on the shoulders of either the Dravidian parties — the DMK or the AIADMK, according to O Panneerselvam, deputy Chief Minister and AIADMK leader.
For all practical purposes, the Congress in Tamil Nadu has become the B team of the DMK. What about the BJP? The less said about the Hindutva party the better. Dravidian parties have succeeded in keeping the BJP in their arc through an intelligently crafted strategy. That and other details will be told in the next part of this series.
(The writer is Special Correspondent, The Pioneer)
Courtesy: Pioneer
Writer: Kumar Chellappan
While the Centre need to devise a careful strategy to get back at the nuclear-armed Pakistan, before we take any actions, there is a lot to fix at home.
As the Indian Government unravels the conspiracy behind the recent attack on a CRPF convoy on February 14, 2019, it must consider civilian supporters of terrorists, especially stone-pelters, as accomplices. Pulwama has shaken the soul of the country; we can no longer tolerate human rights vultures while losing worthy citizens. In a little noticed episode on February 13, 2019, an explosion at a private school in Narbal, Pulwama, injured 16 students. Yet, the police team that arrived to investigate the incident was pelted with stones. Apparently, a student of class X was carrying explosives in his bag, which exploded after others fiddled with it.
This message should also be strongly conveyed to the Supreme Court, whose judges last year ordered that FIR be filed against soldiers when civilian casualties occur, and who dismissed a petition by over 300 serving soldiers asking the court to define where their duty ends and crime begins in their operations against anti-national forces. The petition was an appeal to the apex court not to act as protector of the human rights industry; sadly, it fell on deaf ears and the PIL business continues to flourish.
It was a mistake to ask Northern Army commander, Lt Gen DS Hooda (of Uri surgical strikes fame) to publicly apologise when jawans at a check post fired upon a civilian, who refused to stop for a routine security check, smashed through two check posts and was moving through the third when stopped by a bullet (April 2016). The provocation was to the jawans, not the other way round, but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), infatuated with its alliance with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), humiliated the men in uniform.
Fortunately, the Government stood by Major Leetul Gogoi when, during the violence in Ultigam (Srinagar bypoll) in May 2017, he grabbed an alleged ringleader of stone-pelters and used him as a human shield to save the lives of Indo-Tibetan Border Police personnel. In the violence that day, petrol bombs were hurled and boulders thrown from rooftops. It follows that while finalising its policy on Pakistan, the Government must enunciate a policy regarding civilian perpetrators of violence (those not officially affiliated with a terror outfit) in Jammu & Kashmir. There has been enough charity; now zero tolerance must begin at home.
We must also speak some harsh truths to the nation, and particularly to Jammu & Kashmir. What is the purpose of inane dialogues to integrate Kashmir with India? Does the nation know that Maharaja Hari Singh repeatedly offered to accede to India prior to 1947 but was rebuffed by Jawaharlal Nehru, who insisted that power be handed over to Sheikh Abdullah as a condition for accepting the sensitive border State? That Mountbatten knew of the Pakistani aggression but withheld aid for four critical days? That after 1947, Central funds allotted for the entire State were cornered by the Kashmir Valley to the detriment of Jammu and Ladakh?
The myth of artificial alienation of the Valley has to stop somewhere. Four lakh Kashmiri Pandits were terrorised, brutalised and forced out of the State in the biting winter of 1989-90, and the Lutyens fraternity shamelessly blamed Governor Jagmohan when he had barely entered the State. Now, as Pulwama shatters the national stupor, false stories of Kashmiri students being terrorised in some places are flooding the social media. Has any Kashmiri politician or human rights activist wondered about the careers of non-Kashmiri students of the National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, who objected to Kashmiri students celebrating India’s loss against West Indies in World T20 series (March 31, 2016); they were thrashed by Kashmir police for chanting nationalist slogans and waving the tricolour and left the State in fear of their lives.
The Centre has to think carefully about how to punish nuclear-armed Pakistan, which has also developed tactical (small, easily deployable) nuclear weapons. An Uri-like action may not be feasible; perhaps terror kingpins like Saeed Hafiz and Azhar Masood can have a “bad accident”.
But before any action in or against Pakistan, there is much to fix at home: Repeal Article 370 through Presidential Order; the President alone has the power. Repeal Article 35-A that was smuggled into the Constitution by Presidential Order in 1954 at the insistence of Jawaharlal Nehru, despite Dr Rajendra Prasad’s objections.
The State flag must go without further ado; Urdu (official language of Pakistan, which led to its break-up) must no longer be the official language of a State with a rich civilisational heritage and classical language, Kashmiri. Jammu and Ladakh must be allowed to adopt Dogri and Bhoti (Bodhi) as language of education. It is true that the Centre has granted Ladakh a Central University and Divisional status, but the long-neglected Jammu and Ladakh regions now deserve attention and national resources.
Major world capitals and neighbouring countries condemned the Pulwama attack and stood by India. In a significant statement, Washington, which needs Islamabad to extricate itself from Afghanistan, said: “US condemns in the strongest terms the terrorist attack today on an Indian CRPF convoy in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir”. This is the first time the US has unequivocally called Jammu & Kashmir an “Indian State”.
Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed, which was behind the attack on the Indian Parliament (2001) and Pathankot air base (2016), has claimed responsibility for Pulwama. But what deserves attention is the timing and purpose of the attack. Iran has accused Pakistan of supporting Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) terrorists who are behind a suicide bombing that killed 27 troops on February 13, 2019. Revolutionary Guards Commander, Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, has threatened retaliation if Islamabad does not punish the culprits and warned that the action would not be ‘limited to its borders’. He blamed two other Middle Eastern nations for complicity in the attack.
Pulwama continues a series of Pakistani provocations against the Indian armed forces: Pathankot (January 2016); Uri (September 2016); Nagrota (November 2016); Sunjwan (February 2018). But what could be the reason for Islamabad — which has always feared a two-front war — opening hostilities on two borders at the same time? Its greatest backer, China, does not want to alienate Tehran or New Delhi, even if Beijing is not supporting India in having Azhar Masood declared a ‘global terrorist’ at the United Nations.
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Writer: Sandhya Jain, Senior Fellow, Nehru Memorial Museum and Library
The recently announced 10 percent quota neither intends adequate or proportionate representation nor is a measure to eliminate poverty. The objective is to provide indemnity and insurance to unreserved populace.
The Modi Government introduced the Constitution (124th Amendment) Bill, 2019, in Parliament to provide reservation of 10 percent to the economically backward section in the general category in jobs and educational institutions, which was subsequently passed by both Houses in record time of two days. It will be only with great difficulty that we can recollect the name of any Bill that witnessed the passage in both Houses with such unanimity. While the Lok Sabha passed the Constitutional Amendment Bill with 323 AYES, 3 NOES; the Rajya Sabha passed it with 165 AYES and 07 NOES. This affirmative action also received the President’s assent. As the Bill deals with Fundamental Rights, it does not require the nod of State Assemblies.
Ever since the introduction of this amendment, numerous questions have been raised about its Constitutional validity, with references being made to the 1992 decision by the Supreme Court in Indra Sawhney versus Union of India; applicability of the economic criterion as the basis for reservation; reservation being an instrument to ameliorate poverty; and the inability of the Government to resort to alternate procedures like welfare programmes and policies for the welfare of the economically weaker sections from the unreserved strata.
There was no political immunity either to greater good intended or affirmative action. Criticisms were hurled at the Modi Government — the Bill was branded as “a step to do away with caste-based reservations” and a “populist measure to reap political gains” with the 2019 General Election in mind.
Undoubtedly, India’s social engineering that predates many centuries had noble intentions in the form of delineating occupations and services across caste groups, rendering those services among themselves and, thus, driving dependence among the groups to deliver social bonhomie. In the course of time, however, the noble intention took a hit and deteriorated into caste oppression and further to untouchability — social bonhomie transformed to social evil. The tales are different for the Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Classes. The incessant social inequities drove these classes — Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Class — lower in the echelons of social order.
If reservations were not provided to these classes, meritocracy and efficiency would have been the order of the day with all likelihood that these classes are being under-represented. Post Independence, the Parliament recognised and eventually provided reservations — vertical in nature — through the Constitution to these socially and educationally backward classes of the Indian society; in 1950 to the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes; and in the early 1990s to the Other Backward Class. All of this to ensure adequate representation in educational institutions and Government posts; Scheduled Castes: 15 per cent; Scheduled Tribes: 7.5 per cent; and Other Backward Class: 27 per cent — all of which aggregated to 49.5 per cent.
The insertion of clause 4 in Article 15 and Article 16 of the Constitution provided the basis for reservation to the backward classes. Consequently, equilibrium established by right to equality and equality of opportunities was displaced. It is, therefore, apt to get Pareto efficiency, also referred to as Pareto optimality, into context: It is an economic state where resources cannot be reallocated to make one individual better off without making at least one individual worse off. Put it other way, it implies that resources are allocated in the most efficient manner but does not imply equality or fairness. This state of reallocation of resources was very well captured in the Indra Sawhney 1992 judgement.
So, in an attempt to create an egalitarian society and to normalise periodic agitations against the Mandal Commission report in 1980, the then PV Narasimha Rao Government issued an impugned Office Memorandum dated September 25, 1991, which stated that 10 percent of the vacancies in civil posts and services under the Government of India shall be reserved for other economically backward sections of the people, who are not covered by any of the existing schemes of reservation.
The Supreme Court’s response to the aforementioned memorandum is captured in the 115th paragraph of the Indra Sawhney 1992 judgement, which is as follows: “The impugned Office Memorandum dated September 25, 1991, does not say whether this classification is made under Clause (4) or Clause (1) of Article 16. Evidently, this classification among a category outside Clause (4) of Article 16 is not and cannot be related to Clause (4) of Article 16. If at all, it is relatable to Clause (1)”.
In the same judgement (paragraph 95), the Supreme Court emphatically declared that 50 percent rule is applicable only to reservations made under clause 4 of Article 16 and that reservations cannot breach the 50 per cent mark — on the basis of social and educational backwardness.
While the memorandum fell apart, agitations demanding reservations therein did not die down. The last decade is replete with instances of vociferous agitations, including violent protests from communities of the unreserved strata like Kapus from Andhra Pradesh, Marathas in Maharashtra, Jats from Haryana, Gujjars from Rajasthan and Patidars of Gujarat among others. These communities have exerted pressure on previous dispensations as also on the current Union Government to provide effect to their economic vulnerability by way of inclusion in extended scope of backward classes. Likewise, in the last decade, various State Governments have either issued memorandums or passed legislations to harmonise with the aforementioned agitations and nudged the Government at the helm, including the present dispensation, to include those acts in the Ninth schedule citing judicial immunity.
Wisdom prevailed with the Modi Government and it has neither resorted to expanding the scope of the backward classes nor included the state reservation Bills in the Ninth schedule. A populist dispensation would have acted otherwise. So, the Union Government — with reference to the apex court’s judgement in Indra Sawhney (1992) — introduced additional 10 per cent reservation for the unreserved sections based on certain economic criterion while clause 6 was inserted in the Article 15 and Article 16 to acquire constitutional validity.
Seeing this from a different dimension, it can be emphasised that the Bill promotes social brotherhood and cohesion as well as prevents caste perpetuations. The Government does not believe in reducing the cut off marks or setting lower standards for clearing the interview process in order to uphold the top court’s judgement pronounced in the Indra Sawhney case: Service posts should ensure efficiency in the administration.
As per the Mandal Commission report, Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and the Other Backward Class classes represent 74.5 percent of the Indian population. A simple math would yield that 66 per cent population of these classes are covered under reservation. Evidently, only 40 per cent of the unreserved strata are covered under the current 10 per cent quota provision, which is vertical in nature.
So, this Bill neither intends adequate/proportionate representation nor a procedure to eliminate poverty. The objective was to graduate from doles, freebies and inefficient welfare programmes to the Constitution for providing indemnity and insurance to the unreserved populace. This affirmative action is a classic instance of Pareto improvement — change in allocation harms no one and helps at least one person, given an initial allocation of goods for a set of persons. The sabka quota Bill is definitely a stamp of accreditation to the secular credentials.
Whether it is incessant efforts in achieving the constitutional status to the National Commission for Backward Classes or delayed decision to extend the creamy layer to Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes reservations (Jarnail Singh, 2018 Supreme Court judgement), the Union Government has expressed unquestionable intent on the welfare of the Scheduled Castes, the Scheduled Tribes and the Other Backward Class. In the wake of this Bill, any mudslinging on BJP-led Modi Government, that it wants to do away with reservations, should be construed as a mere political hurl.
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Writer: Sandeep Vempati, Member, Manifesto sub-committee on Social Welfare, BJP Telangana
The Pulwama attack is a proof that India has still not understood the psyche of Pakistani nor its power structure.
February 14, 2019, will be remembered as one of the saddest days in the history of independent India. The killing and wounding of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) jawans was tragic enough, but that wasn’t all. The casualties were of innocent men travelling to perform their duty. They would have ceased to be innocent once they donned their uniforms and slung their weapons on their shoulders. Well-led soldiers are seldom deceived. We hope we have at least woken up to the evil that the Pakistani rulers are.
Since October 1947, India and Jammu & Kashmir have suffered countless attacks — whether by soldiers, mujahideen or plain criminals. Thousands of lives have been sacrificed upon the altar of terrorism and several India-Pakistan wars have been fought. But Indian rulers have regrettably not understood the Pakistani psyche nor its power structure. An outstanding reason is that New Delhi interprets Islamabad through its eyes. Little wonder, we are deceived each time.
In Kargil, Pakistani soldiers entrenched themselves on hilltops during the winter; whereas we woke up to them only in spring. In 1971, the Yahya-Bhutto clique wanted to get rid of the majority eastern wing; whereas we seriously believed that Maj Gen Niazi was sent to Dacca (now Dhaka) to defend and save what became Bangladesh.
In 1972, when the then Pakistan Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto came to negotiate peace after the 1971 war, it was agreed that the Line of Control in Kashmir would become the permanent frontier between India and Pakistan. In exchange, 93,000 prisoners of war under Maj Gen Niazi would be returned. But how could the poor Bhutto sign? After all, his country was in agony having just lost over half of Pakistan. In 1965, Pakistani tanks attacked Kutch to test Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri’s will to fight — if found weak, to invade Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab. Our Army was, therefore, surprised when the subsequent assault came in Chamb Jaurian. In 1947-48, Srinagar initially saw the arrival of the armed brigands but they turned out to be intended conquerors of the State of Jammu & Kashmir. Fortunately, Sardar Patel understood Qaid-e-Azam’s designs.
The Islamabad clique is a hydra-headed regime. In front is the civilian Government, next the Army and next to that is the Inter-Services Intelligence. Whenever these three have to restrain themselves — it may be due to the inclination of Pakistan’s benefactors, world opinion or human rights — the Taliban or other terrorists are made to step forward. This was the case in the Pulwama terror attack by the Jaish-e-Mohammad, which is a non-state agency and can be claimed to be “beyond the control of the state”. How can anyone trust four different agencies if one could not believe even a single person, namely Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, on the Line of Control in 1972? Pakistanis are born and habitual deceivers. Indira Gandhi and her Panj Pyare led by PN Haksar naively believed Bhutto.
Before coming to the inner play among the hydra-headed agencies, it should be educative to note India’s acts of non-commission as well. We have all heard the many cries and slogans of azadi, autonomy and Nizam-e-Mustafa. But has New Delhi ever bluntly asked those agitators and their allies: What about the enormous subsidy that Jammu & Kashmir enjoys?
Kashmiris pay very few taxes and, therefore, live off subsidies from the Centre. Three years ago, on a visit to Srinagar, this writer happened to ask a highly respected journalist: What do you, as a Kashmiri, ideally want? He replied ‘autonomy’, except for four or five subjects. When asked whether he would be prepared to run the autonomous state without subsidy, he hesitated for a few moments and then replied: “Frankly, while we have worked out our political roadmap, we have not yet drawn up our economic roadmap”!
Surely, New Delhi should have encouraged discussions and debates on this contradiction. These would help dampen nefarious elements and their intentions. At the same time, it is equally important for New Delhi to declare unequivocally three blunt truths. That India cannot, for love or money, let Kashmir secede from the country for three solid reasons. Two of the country’s major rivers have their source not far from Srinagar. Two others pass through the Valley before entering Punjab. And the Indus begins in Ladakh. If Kashmir gets autonomy, why would other Muslims resident in India not expect the same privilege?
Incidentally, Justice Gopal Das Khosla, ICS, who was one of the three judges who sentenced Nathuram Godse, wrote in his book, Stern Reckoning, that an exchange of population was an integral part of Partition; this was not implemented. MA Jinnah had declared that Hindus and Muslims are so different that they could not coexist in the same country. If that be not so, where was the need for Partition? But today, there are more Muslim residents in India than either in Pakistan or Bangladesh. Third, if the Valley is granted autonomy, any other of the 30 States in the country could ask for a similar privilege. Politicians, whether of the Hurriyat or any other shade, would know these home truths but an average Kashmiri does not and is, therefore, vulnerable to being misled.
The Army in Pakistan enjoys near unquestioned charisma. There are four reasons that this writer is aware of; there may be more. One, is the series of discredited civilian Governments since the assassination of Nawabzada Liaquat Ali Khan in 1951. Two, is the mortal fear induced by the rulers that the common folk harbour an Indian threat. The third is the Punjabi apprehension that Pakistan may fall apart if the Army is not in the de facto saddle. Four, civilians have not seen their country’s Army being beaten soundly, except perhaps on the peripheries during the 1965 war. Kashmir was not in sight and Bangladesh (in 1971) was far away from the Pakistani mainland. The Inter-Services Intelligence is an integral part of the Army.
This inexorable factor will prevail unless and until the people of Punjab see their soldiers being defeated on the battlefield. This is the crux of the conflict with Pakistan, Kashmir being merely the akhada for its Army to wrestle with Indians. Players can be the Taliban or professional terrorists or paid and trained Indian Kashmiris. This is the merry convenience Islamabad will enjoy until New Delhi gets ready to takes serious action.
Without such action, it is unlikely that it would be possible to live in peace as good neighbours. In this context, the Ottoman Empire was a similar problem. It was economically sick since quite early in the 19th century as Pakistan now is. Yet, Turkey controlled large areas around itself and was capable of conducting a massive genocide five decades or more later in Armenia. The problem was solved only when the Ottomans were routed in the World War I and their empire taken down. The Sultan was soon exiled and the Caliphate was abolished.
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Writer: Pioneer
Despite the focus being on BJP, Congress, and Third Front, the locus in government-formation is likely to be of smaller parties in/around the NDA
It goes without saying that Government-formation after the 2019 general election will depend on poll numbers. Not ideology, not alliances, and certainly not personal chemistry between political leaders; these will be played out during the election. The counting and final tallying of votes for the various political parties/groupings will decide the leader of the next Government of India.
Naturally, the issue itself will be rendered moot if any of the three players in the fray — broadly the BJP-ledNational Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the still amorphous Third/Federal Front comprising non-BJP/non-Congress regional parties — win 272 seats on their own. That, however, according to every credible, independent opinion poll, is unlikely. We are not arguing that it can’t happen by the time polling day comes along. Just that as of today the consensus among pollsters is that it won’t.
In fact, apart from pollsters and large sections of the media, there is another group of people whose assessment is similar and who are planning their next moves factoring this in. These are the smaller parties in and around the NDA or, as we term them, the potential jokers in the post-poll pack.
There should be no misunderstanding about what is being said. These parties, which bring a different play to the 2019 national electoral game, will quietly fall in behind the BJP as purportedly old and trusted allies or as regional parties resorting to that old trope of offering issue-based support to the party ruling at the Centre in the interest of the State if Prime Minister Narendra Modi leads his party back to power. But they also recognise that’s not the kind of certainty it was a year ago. So, they seem to be preparing a Plan B.
There are two clearly discernible prongs to this political-electoral strategy. For current NDA members, it is to push the BJP into conceding many more seats to its allies than the saffron party would have ideally liked to part with. Ever since the perception has taken root that the Rampant Modi narrative is stuttering thanks to the string of by-election and Assembly poll defeats for the BJP in 2018, this has become a feasible ploy. The concessions extracted by the Janata Dal United in Bihar, where the two allies have split the seats 50:50 despite the BJP having more sitting MPs, is a case in point.
It has also become a template for other NDA allies to emulate, as can be seen in the Shiv Sena arguing for a similar division of seats for Maharashtra with Big Brother BJP. JD-U vice president Prashant Kishore’s highly publicised visit to Mumbai to confabulate with Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray last week can fairly be surmised to be a part of this effort. Only the Akalis are out of this matrix. And that’s because despite the temptations, the Shiromani Akali Dal leadership, which is the Badal family, shares a close personal relationship with the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah-Arun Jaitley troika and the party still faces residual voter resentment for its decade of alleged misrule in Punjab. So it is not expected to win more than a couple of Lok Sabha seats, if that, in 2019.
For currently non-NDA parties such as the Biju Janata Dal, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, YSR Congress and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam/Rajinikanth, and including the Asom Gana Parishad and other North-eastern parties, which have fallen out with the BJP over the Citizenship Amendment Bill, the idea is to contest the Lok Sabha poll on their own and/or with tactical adjustments to win the maximum number of seats. All of these parties, which are technically equidistant from both BJP and Congress, are highly unlikely to be tempted by the UPA and view, at least for the moment, the conglomeration of regional satraps that comprise the putative Third/Federal Front as fundamentally unstable.
Interestingly, however, nearly all of them have in recent weeks established informal contacts with the NDA’s current allies, hinting at a joint post-poll strategy if the BJP alone is unable to win 272 seats or come reasonably close to that magic number of seats in the forthcoming general election.
So, what a block of parties, including but not limited to the Shiv Sena, Janata Dal-United, YSR Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, AIADMK/Rajinikanth, Biju Janata Dal and the North-east regional parties bring to the table are between 50 to as many as 100 Lok Sabha seats depending on how they perform at the hustings.
The BJP is aware of these developments but sounds confident of ensuring through various means the loyalty of this group of parties in/around the NDA. The Congress, on the other hand, with ambitions of re-building the party under Rahul Gandhi, knows that these parties operate in States where, bar say a Tamil Nadu, the potential for its rejuvenation going ahead is certainly there. It is the Third/Federal Front — for which the Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress, Aam Aadmi Party, Telugu Desam Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal, National Conference and Bahujan Samaj Party are currently doing most of the running — that perhaps needs most to fine-tune its strategy to deal with the emerging jokers in the pack.
For, the choices for these parties are actually more than for the three main players in the fray. They could back a Modi-led Government if the BJP numbers are good. They could back a non-Modi BJP-led government if the BJP is the single largest party but well short of a majority. They could, if their poll performance results in them winning closer to 100 seats as opposed to 50, even conceivably ask the BJP to back them in forming a non-BJP-led NDA Government. They could, finally, in the event of a hung House with no party/formation in even striking distance of the halfway-mark, open negotiations with the Third/Federal front to form a Government of regional parties backed by either of the two national parties.
Interesting times lie ahead.
(Ishan Joshi: The author is an independent journalist and commentator based in New Delhi)
Courtesy: The Pioneer
NGT pulls up Delhi Government for noise pollution but we have to discipline ourselves first
The biggest obstacle towards addressing pollution in Delhi is that we like to think of it in terms of the air that we breathe. Rarely do we talk about other types of pollution that impact our daily existence like that of water and sound. It usually takes reminders from the National Green Tribunal to jolt us back to our senses. And so it has slapped a fine of `5 lakh on the Delhi governmentfor its failure to check noise pollution in the western part of the city despite a compliance order issued four months ago. A quarterly report on the noise pollution in Delhi’s Rajouri Garden found that despite citizens’ crusades and complaints, bars and restaurants in the area were using loudspeakers and DJ systems during weddings and other celebratory functions. Violating time limits, such pleasurable activities were disturbing the lives of residents in a clustered locality, particularly infants and the aged. But given the noise pollution that continues unabated on Diwali nights despite Supreme Court rulings on bursting crackers, little wonder this neighbourhood complaint was not considered serious enough as a concern. Fact is noise pollution is actually as serious as air pollution. Research data by independent decibel survey agencies have shown that Delhi had some of the country’s noisiest roads. And citizens had the maximum amount of hearing loss proportionate to their age. Noise pollution in cities is directly linked to 64 per cent of hearing loss, said one study.
Most traffic junctions here record plus 70 decibels on a regular day, almost 10 over the limit allowed in commercial areas. In fact, ENT specialists have a separate marker as to what constitutes hearing loss here than what it is for the rest of the country. Noise pollution is now linked to many health issues, from irreversible hearing loss, anxiety attacks to hypertension and heart disease. Most importantly, loud honking, construction clatter, industrial hum and the thud of music from boom boxes have an overall impact on a person’s sanity and well-being, the quantum of which cannot be ascertained simply because it is not scalable. Often we train ourselves to be immune to sounds without realising we are upping our tolerance threshold and alertness levels and not simmering down even in a resting state. Data compiled by both the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) and Delhi Pollution Control Committee (DPCC) have shown that sound levels in neighbourhoods at night too were above recommended levels. Which is why last October, the Delhi police declared 60 stretches of road as “no honking zones.” However, while it is easy to identify violations, it is the curbing mechanism which is difficult and frankly low priority. A fine is just `100, there are very few noise meters and there are more cars on the roads than speed cams to check limits and consequent volumes. We can all blame administrative will and the lack of a disciplinarian mechanism but the biggest control has to come from citizens themselves. If we are conscientious enough to modify our lifestyles and be more sensitive to our surroundings, follow rules willingly and not just because they are imposed on us, decongest routes and can lower our sound requirements since the city is always in the middle of an infrastructural overhaul, we would sleep in peace. It is the silence about our behavioural change that is truly deafening. And no amount of PILs and activism can change that.
Writer & Courtesy: Pioneer
With the guiding lantern in hand and a vision to drive the new age developmental change in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently quoted that 3.76 lakh new jobs were added within the Government sector. He also mentioned about growing contributions towards provident fund and the National Pension Scheme. If this pattern of growth in the job sector to be followed, at least ten million jobs have been created in India in the past five years. Present day India is facing several issues within the job market which mainly include insufficient jobs to job seekers ratio. Creating middle-class jobs has been a challenge with the appearance of a clear dichotomy of a few high-paying, high-level jobs and millions of low-paying jobs.
As Manish Sabharwal of the staffing agency, Teamlease, wrote a few years ago, there are a few Rs 25,000 per month jobs and little prospect for growth for low-level employees. Clearly, the situation hasn’t changed and this is just increasing the wealth and education divide in India. The problem is that neither Prime Minister Modi nor the Opposition has any solutions to this. The core problem is the much-ballyhooed “demographic dividend” in India, which now appears to have been an economy-crushing combination of lower maternal and infant mortality rates without a drop in fertility rates in large swathes of northern and eastern parts. At the same time, dramatic improvements in agricultural technologies and yields have reduced manpower needs. Further, large agricultural families are unsustainable, which has led to mass urban migration with a subsequent realignment in a manner of speaking of traditional caste structures. All of these are huge challenges that have been dealt with by politicians through either quota politics, again not sustainable without enough jobs, or cash doles. But neither of them is enough.
China’s stunning turnaround happened because it moved its people from unsustainable subsistence agriculture to factories and as many complaints as the weather had about China’s factories, they are a whole lot better than the ones in the West when they made the huge leap to the industrial revolution. The problem is that India seems to have missed the manufacturing bus. And while domestic demand has kept the economy afloat, the key consuming class is still around 20-25 million families. India’s ‘great middle class’ as The Economist magazine put it, is “ephemeral.” This is almost circular logic and the only way to boost jobs growth and, thus, demand, is to provide stimulus to the private sector not just to the small-scale industry, but encourage foreign investment with rational policy decisions. This should be the main job for whoever gets the hot seat come May end because we cannot dilly-dally any longer.
Courtesy – Pioneer
Trinamool Congress MLA Satyajit Biswas from Krishnaganj in Nadia district, was shot dead by unidentified assailants, when the 41-year-old was visiting a Saraswati Puja pandal where he had been invited to inaugurate the festival. The TMC immediately blamed the BJP for the crime.
“He had already inaugurated the Puja and was walking towards his car after coming down from the stage where he made a brief speech,” said locals, adding the assailants suddenly emerged and fired at him from point blank range and melted away.
“He seemed still to be alive while he was being taken to the nearby Shaktinagar hospital,” said party sources, adding he succumbed to his injuries on way to hospital.
TMC district president Gouri Dutta accused the BJP operatives for the murder and said, “He was an active member of the party and had managed to resist the BJP onslaughts in the region.” Most of the BJP members had migrated from the CPI (M) which till a year or two ago had a sizeable presence in the district, he added.
A large posse of police force was rushed to the spot and a pistol was recovered from the area, a senior police officer said.
RSS and BJP operatives were behind the attack, he said adding former TMC leader Mukul Roy who was currently in charge of the election affairs of the BJP in Bengal was pulling the strings from behind.
Biswas was a prominent leader from the Matua community which accounts for about two million votes in North 24 Parganas and Nadia and were currently being mollycoddled both by the BJP and the TMC.
The victim had played an important role in last year’s Panchayat elections in his constituency and the neighbouring Ranaghat North-east seat, sources said.
State BJP president Dilip Ghosh blamed the infighting within the ruling party for the Saturday’s incident.
“The rampant groupism in the TMC is responsible for this. They are joining the BJP’s name to victimise our active workers and put them behind the bar before the elections,” he said demanding a CBI probe into the incident. “We don’t have any faith in the Bengal Police. Let there be a CBI probe and the truth will come out by itself,” he said.
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Writer: Saugar Sengupta
Despite the fact that George Fernandes, was one of the best Defence Ministers for whom the welfare and well-being of the Army personnel came first, he was unfortunately not given his due. For a former Defence Minister, even the most unlikely, George sahab was laid to rest without the traditional military honours due to him. He was no ordinary Defence Minister but one under whose watch several landmark defence and security events transpired: The Pokhran nuclear tests, Kargil war, terrorist attack on Parliament, culminating in the first full-scale war mobilisation called ‘Operation Parakram’ and the implementation of the Kargil Review Committee report. There is no job description of a Defence Minister but the one Fernandes wrote out, securing the widely-acknowledged accolade of being one of the best in performance and popularity.
So, it was surprising that the Adjutant General’s Branch at the Army Headquarters failed to do George Saab the honours he eminently deserved. I saw only two Army officers in uniform, both from the President’s Secretariat, some soldiers from 5/1 Gorkha Rifles, who accompanied his body in a wooden casket carried in a 10 tonne truck instead of a gun carriage and two Army buglers, who played the Last Post without the rise.
The function was quite chaotic, apparently managed by the Delhi Police. There was no show by Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and other civilian and military dignitaries. Last year, India’s most decorated officer, Lt Gen ZC Bakshi — MVC, VrC, VSM, MacGregor Medal — the last of a bygone era passed away without even an appropriate wreath being laid on behalf of the Army. George Saab would not have let this omission passed uncondoned. He was not just the Defence Minister but also the only non-BJP member on the Cabinet Committee on Security. The BJP organised an awesome and poignant funeral with full military honours for late Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee but almost next to zero for George Saab, who deserved more.
The brown wooden casket, which brought Fernandes to his final full stop, reminded one of the Coffingate controversy which was turned into an alleged scam. Up till then, soldiers killed in action in Jammu and Kashmir and the North-East were cremated in the battle zone and their ashes delivered to the next of kin. He ordered the purchase of aluminium coffins from the US for the bodies of the deceased to be delivered to their homes. By this small gesture, he added dignity and respect to the sacrifice of soldiers. For Fernandes, it was always ‘Soldier First’, their welfare and well-being was his prime concern. He would love to share dal bhaat with the jawans and rarely, if at all, did he miss a chance to pick up their grievances.
This was best demonstrated by his fancy for the most difficult terrain on planet earth, Siachen. For him, this highest troop deployment became a pilgrimage to boost the morale of soldiers deployed there. He would especially order cakes from his hometown, Mangalore and carry them to Siachen every Christmas. He visited Siachen more than a dozen times, providing the personnel manning the forbidding heights with state-of-the-art equipment for survival. When bureaucrats in his Ministry delayed the provision of stores — like the snowmobiles for Siachen — he would pack them off to experience the pain of icy heights. Siachen became the benchmark for care and comfort of jawans.
He was extremely concerned about the mounting troop casualties. When the counter-insurgency grid got disturbed due to re-deployment of troops, resulting from Kargil and Pakistan-sponsored cross-border terrorism began to hurt, he explored some antidote strategies. The first was to declare that India would respond to cross-border terrorism by launching a limited conventional war under the nuclear threshold. The other option considered was clandestine: Employing reformed Kashmiri terrorists in a counter jihad but his heart was against what he called immoral operations with a potential blowback. So, former Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar’s idea of using a terrorist to kill a terrorist had its votary at least a decade earlier.
No one could have imagined that the man in a crumpled kurta pyjama (which he washed himself) and one whose distaste for the military and its methods was well-known, would be steel firm in the pursuit of military values and discipline. When former Navy Chief, Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat, refused to comply with the directions of the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet because they were not in sync with the Navy Act, Fernandes signed his dismissal order. This was an unprecedented act in India’s brief military history. When former Army Chief, Gen VK Singh, dared to take his own Government to court following a string of shenanigans over his age row, Defence Minister AK Antony did not say a word to him. To me, though, he said: “He’s such a big man! The COAS…!”
Fernandes also dabbled in real-time secret intelligence operations to trap Arakan rebels. But his most serious and irreparable faux pas was calling China India’s Enemy No 1 and adding fuel to fire by leaking a letter that China was the reason for India’s nuclear tests. This diplomatic earthquake had to be subdued by the then Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh, who travelled to Beijing at the height of the Kargil war in what the Beijing media called: “Those who tie the knot have to untie it first.” This amounted to Singh retracting Fernandes, naming China as the principal adversary for India and stating that China was not a threat to India. This admission by Singh untied the knot tied by Fernandes.
Fernandes had his share of scams: Coffingate, Tehelka, purchase of Barak missiles, the last of which implicated former Navy Chief Admiral Sushil Kumar too. On account of Tehelka, he had to step down while he was being investigated. Singh took over additional charge of defence and being an Army Major-turned politician, had a soft corner for service officers.
In one instance as Defence Minister, he recommended a Lieutenant Colonel for a one-year extension in his job as English language instructor in Laos, while as Foreign Minister, he rejected the same. Singh and Fernandes were thick as thieves which played a major role during Operation Parakram.
Fernandes was fluent in English, Hindi, Marathi, Konkani and even a smattering of Gorkhali he had learnt from his cook, Durga Bahadur. George Saab left a deep imprint on the armed forces and the Ministry of Defence. At the funeral, his erstwhile assistant, Jaswal, recognised me and we both fondly remembered George Saab. He said Ashok, his PA, had died two years ago, adding: “But George Saab will live on.” Defence Minister Fernandes, like a soldier, will only fade away.
Writer: Ashok K Mehta (A retired Major General of the Indian Army and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the revamped Integrated Defence Staff)
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Owing to the fact that Union Minister Arun Jaitley was unable to present the interim budget, Piyush Goyal presented it for the Modi Government last week. Unfortunately, while there was a change in the person presenting the interim budget, there was little about this budget that could distinguish it from what India has seen over the past five years. This budget represented those values that the BJP Government has been repeatedly demonstrating ever since in power. In this week’s column, I will attempt to highlight how the interim budget was only a microcosm of the BJP’s approach to governance. It was irresponsible, ill-conceived and insulting.
Irresponsible: It is important to refer to the context in which the interim budget was presented. Frank Snepp, a journalist, had once said, “Disinformation is most effective in a very narrow context.” True words have never been spoken. While the BJP and its army of social media warriors tried hard to convince the people that this budget was a game-changer, it’s crucial to understand the context of the budget, which is that it was an interim budget.
An interim budget is typical in a democracy where the party in power is about to witness an election year, where it may be voted out and another political party or a coalition of various parties may be voted to power. Since the two Governments may have different fiscal and budgetary plans, as per established convention, the interim budget is usually limited to signalling and explaining to the country what would be the measures that the Government in power aims to pursue if voted to power again.
At this stage, a vote-on-account is also presented that details an estimate of the expenditure to be sanctioned till the final budget is passed by the next Government in power. This tradition has been followed by responsible Governments in India for over 70 years now. Someone forgot to give the BJP the memo.
As the West Bengal episode shows, the BJP has time and again demonstrated that it has no interest in acting like a responsible Government. This interim budget was no different. As I had said earlier, it is almost unheard of for a budget to introduce sweeping changes. But in this one, the BJP recklessly introduced some tax changes, which otherwise require debate and discussion.
I have heard that the rationale behind introducing the tax reform was that the middle class needed clarity about the tax structure at the beginning of the year. This seems insincere and convenient. Especially because the BJP is aware that this proposal may change further when the final budget is passed in Parliament after debate. So, to hear this Government, that regularly treats statistics and numbers as an inconvenience talk about the need of clarity for the middle class, brings tears to the eye. If only they made the people of this country cry a little less often.
Ill-conceived: Another piece of news that emerged last week was a leaked jobs report by the National Sample Survey Office, which detailed how India was going through its worst job crisis in 45 years. As per the report, its findings were withheld by this Government, which ultimately forced two senior members of the Statistics Commission to quit in protest.
While I could write every week about how the BJP has repeatedly shown utter disregard for any report, any institution or authority that sheds light on just how shambolic this Government has been, today, I want to talk about how this Government ignored the crucial issue of jobs in the interim budget.
This was especially surprising since jobs for the youth was one of the BJP’s primary election promises in 2014. While I initially reacted with surprise, I realised that since the BJP has been ignoring the jobs problem for the past five years, why should the interim budget be any different?
In any case, this omission speaks louder than the silence of the Prime Minister when asked an inconvenient question. It demonstrates that the BJP does not have a clear stand on any particular issue. Whether it’s the question of instituting a Lok Pal and tackling corruption or the issue of creating jobs, this Government’s only tactic has been to move from one issue to the other so that people do not stay and examine an issue long enough to question what is actually being done.
While jobs may have been a popular issue for the BJP in 2014, it is now avoiding the issue like a plague or ignoring a scientific report by a reputed institution that reflects the ground reality.
Insensitive: Another facet of the BJP that this interim budget displayed was just how insensitive this Government can be. Take the example of the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi scheme announced during the interim budget. Under this programme, the BJP has offered direct cash support of Rs 6,000 per year to farmers who have a land holding of up to two hectares. This amounts to an insulting Rs 17 per day. The BJP is aware that it has failed our country’s farmers completely and believes that its latest attempt will help pacify them. This is unlikely.
Not only because of the insulting Rs 17 per day grant to the farmers but for the reason that people of this country are aware that this is just another jumla of the BJP Government like the ‘Smart Cities’ initiative or the ‘Clean Ganga’ promise.
The very idea of direct cash transfer is already in place in Telangana. The only difference is that in that State, first a survey was done and records were updated. Only then was the scheme implemented. In the case of the BJP, however, it has typically gone straight to announce the scheme without the slightest pretence of even attempting to make the scheme work. on the ground. This programme has all the tell-tale signs of a classic jumla.
The current BJP Government has had repeated opportunities at its disposal to mend ways and behave like a responsible Government, one that respects the country’s institutions and holds differing views from its own or at the very least a Government that is connected to the ground situation. But it wasted each and every opportunity. The latest interim budget is just another instance in a long line of instances of the Government choosing to stay true to its disappointing approach to governance.
(The writer is Jharkhand PCC president, former MP and IPS officer. Views are personal)
Writer: Ajoy Kumar
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Most statistics surrounding road deaths in India are shocking because there comes a realisation that so many of these are wholly preventable. In 2017, over 26,000 people, who died in road accidents, had not been using their seat belt. In the same year, of the 48,746 people who died while riding scooters and motorcycles, a whopping 73.8 per cent did not wear helmets. This must be seen in the context of huge anti-helmet movements that are currently being organised in Mumbai, particularly in Pune, where politicians and self-styled civil society leaders have actively opposed the enforcement of headgear rules by the police. So, as the road safety week comes to an end, it becomes apparent that Indians care two hoots for the concept. Of course, using helmets and seat belts is no guarantee that serious injuries and death won’t happen but they can dramatically reduce the risk. In fact, insurance companies have been known to not pay out claims when they found that drivers or riders were not using safety equipment or were breaking the law by overloading a vehicle or driving on the wrong side among others. They are perfectly justified in doing so.
Later this year, several safety features will become mandatory for cars, including speed warnings, anti-lock brakes, at least one driver airbag and others. Two-wheelers, too, will have to feature anti-lock brakes and while this move will drive up the cost of vehicles and has some parts of the automotive industry cribbing, the fact is that these changes, while welcome, will not make much of a difference unless Indians start taking their own driving habits more seriously. Of course, there are some fundamental issues with road safety in India. For example, vehicles of varying speeds, particularly slow-moving e-rickshaws or cycle-rickshaws carrying goods such as reinforcing bars, operate on arterial urban roads and highways, posing a danger to themselves and other road users. At the same time, vehicles are overloaded far beyond permissible capacity. School vans ferrying children often carry 12 of them alongside the driver with school bags loaded on the roof, far more than the six-eight people the van should carry. The big problem in India is one of enforcement and the traffic police in many cities is overwhelmed by the scale of the problem. Just look at the rampant use of mobile phones while driving nowadays even by two-wheeler drivers. Indian road users are putting not only their own lives but those of others, particularly pedestrians, at risk. While official statistics said that just under 150,000 people died in 2017, we must accept that the number could be much higher and it is unacceptable. If any government wishes to fix the country’s myriad problems, they should start with fixing India’s traffic first. If people are disciplined on the road, maybe they will be disciplined elsewhere too.
Writer and Courtesy: The Pioneer
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