Now that Sonia Gandhi is the Congress Chief, she has an array of challenges to tackle including building a grassroots base, boosting the morale of workers, fighting the assembly, and bringing the old and young camps together.
Sonia Gandhi has her task cut out. As the Congress chief, she has to build a grassroots base, boost the morale of its workers, fight the Assembly elections and most importantly, bring the old and the young camps together
Sonia Gandhi is back again as the Congress’ chief after almost a break of two years. She had taken a back seat during this period, leaving the field entirely to her son Rahul Gandhi in 2017. But now, she will be at the helm of affairs until the party holds the next organisational elections.
After going through the motions of the consultation process, the Congress Working Committee (CWC) has ultimately brought back Sonia Gandhi. But it is not clear whether she will be able to restore the party back to its health. Sonia had made her political debut in 1998 when the grand old party was in bad shape and she was able to check erosion. She even brought the party to power twice (2004-2014). Now that she is reluctantly back as the chief, what would be her challenges in the coming days and months?
The first daunting challenge for Sonia will be to restructure a demoralised organisation. She commands respect, trust and loyalty from party leaders and workers across the generational divide. After the Congress’ humiliating defeat in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, where it won just 52 seats, as also the leadership crisis it faced for the past 75 days after Rahul Gandhi stepped down as party president, the morale of party workers is down. Many disgruntled partymen have left the grand old party. She needs to give a pep-talk to the workers, who may have confidence in her, and boost their morale.
Second and more importantly, Assembly elections are due in the States of Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana in the next two months and the Congress is still not ready to face them. On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is all set to win the three States. Sonia has to put the right people for the right kind of job and strengthen the party organisationally. There is factionalism and erosion of workers and leaders. She has to appoint strong general secretaries who can oversee election preparedness. Even if the party can win just one State, it will go a long way in boosting the morale of the cadres.
Third, Sonia has to keep her flock together. The old guard has had its way, she must make sure that the disappointed younger lot do not look for greener pastures. Already, there are rumours that some of the younger leaders are in talks with the BJP. She should be able to persuade them to remain in the party and give them importance.
Fourth, it is important to check the erosion. Sonia was able to do so in 1998 when she took over from Sitaram Kesri. She did so at a time when the party was in the Opposition and many senior leaders were leaving the party. The scenario is the same now. MPs like Sanjay Singh and Bhubaneswar Kalita have joined the BJP. More are likely to go. In most States, including Maharashtra, Goa and Telangana, several Congressmen are leaving the sinking ship. The question is whether she will be able to stop them.
Fifth, she should restore the position of the Congress as a challenger to the BJP. For this, the need is to repackage the party. She was successful in doing so earlier by holding conclaves in Pachmarhi and Shimla with brainstorming sessions involving party leaders. The same zeal is needed now, especially after the party’s humiliating defeat in 2019 polls. The party is yet to introspect and come up with corrections.
Sixth, she must define the roles for her children, otherwise there will be three power centres. Rahul Gandhi has said that he will continue to work for the party. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is already the general secretary from Uttar Pradesh but she is not just another general secretary because of her access to her mother.
Seventh, she must re-work her coalition strategy and States where the Congress is not strong, she must look at alliances with smaller and regional parties. The party must realise that this is the only way it can improve its chances.
Last but not the least, it is imperative to concentrate on reorganising the party and re-connect with the voters. The Congress scored zero in 17 States in the 2019 polls. In the past five years, the BJP has considerably expanded its base and won even those States where it never won in the past and has now emerged as the principal pole of national politics, replacing the Congress.
The Congress has to come up with a new plan to revive the party in the northern and eastern States. There are five years to do this until the 2024 polls although the intervening Assembly polls are also important. The party should work with a missionary zeal to achieve this. For all these, Sonia Gandhi needs a good team. While the coterie might expect to grab all the power, she must have a mix of old and young Congress leaders in her core team. All these have to be taken up with utmost urgency as there is not enough time before the ensuing Assembly polls.
(The writer is a senior journalist)
Writer: Kalyani Shankar
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Tackling the over-development in eco friendly zones is a must after the damaging floods across the western coast.
Nature can be devastating as the recent floods across the western coast from Gujarat to Kerala have proven. However, it is becoming apparent that no matter how brutal it might be, human activity has become a force multiplier, worsening its impact. Rampant and often illegal construction across many parts of the ghats, particularly in the ecologically-sensitive areas of Karnataka and Kerala, are blocking natural flow paths and in the absence of new channels to divert overflow, the raging waters are running amok and inundating settlements. Elsewhere, the montane forests have been denuded blatantly, loosening the soil and leading to massive mud and rockslides, burying men, women and children under tonnes of rubble. Mangroves have been uprooted in the name of development, leading to tidal surges as bad as tsunamis. And all of this coupled with the clear and present danger — man-made global warming — has made these annual rains deadlier. The prevalence of micro-climate and intense bursts of showers even in lean phases have stressed existing infrastructure further. On August 8, Karnataka received nearly five times the rainfall it normally does. Mysuru in south Karnataka received 62.2 mm absolute rainfall in a day — 3,176 per cent, or 32 times, the long-term average for that day.
But we ought not to be surprised as floods and other natural disasters have been continuing since time immemorial. Our earliest history mentions them as does almost every major religious text. As a civilisation, we have done much to mitigate the risks. Even in India, over the past few years, proper planning and better rescue and relief operations have meant more people are being rescued and fewer lives lost to post-disaster hunger and disease. For this, we must thank the officials and foot soldiers of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the armed forces. Navy and Air Force pilots often fly helicopters to rescue and send relief in extremely trying conditions. Even the process of relief collection and distribution has improved thanks to social media and funds. But disaster preparedness means factoring in evacuation drills, riverine overflows and predictive scenarios of destruction rather than short-term structural solutions like construction of embankments or digging of canals and spurs.
An entire settlement disappeared because a hill collapsed in Kerala. Shocking as it is, blame the politicians and even the Church who protested the Gadgil Committee and Kasturirangan Reports on the Western Ghats that wanted to protect several areas from a rush of development. Across the southern state, hillside construction has worsened matters than before. It was only a matter of time before a devastating rainfall would make the chickens come home to roost. It is, therefore, ironic that Kerala has been hit by floods two years in a row. It is now imperative that the State Government seriously explore how to implement the reports and if need be, demolish constructions. Kerala’s successive plight should be a lesson for the rest of India where unplanned development and political ineptitude to act against those who encroach forest areas, often because they are politically-connected, continue unabashedly. Politicians would then actually have blood on their hands because people are dying thanks to their greed. Man can no longer control nature but can control how it will impact us.
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
Revocation of Article 370 has had an impact on Kashmiris. There is nothing that can compensate for what the Kashmiris have lost – autonomy and special status.
Government agencies have reported that Friday prayers and Eid prayers were held in Jammu & Kashmir without incident. NDTV’s Srinagar correspondent Nazir Masoodi wished his mother and friends Eid Mubarak via his channel as other means of communication were blocked. He also reported that Eid celebrations were markedly subdued while Government reports indicated they were robust.
Normalcy is being projected. National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval has deployed himself in the Valley, boosting the morale of the police and fraternising with people, portraying a rosy picture. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Jammu &Kashmir Governor Satya Pal Malik and industrialists Mukesh Ambani and Uday Kotak have all made big promises of turning Jammu & Kashmir into a land of milk and honey. Why should the Kashmiris, who have been betrayed, believe any of them? After all, they have heard of economic packages several times earlier. In the loud din of the lockdown, all one can see are concertina coils of barbed wire, soldiers and pigeons.
During a debate in the Rajya Sabha over the abrogation of Article 370, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), Jitendra Singh, reported that there was jubilation in Srinagar whereas television channels showed deserted streets. Four days later, at an Observer Research Foundation (ORF) conference in New Delhi, a Special Secretary to the Government of India referred to the situation in Kashmir as a “crisis.” A young Kashmiri researcher with ORF predicted that insurgency has been given a new 30-year lease of life. Normalcy and lockdown are a contradiction in terms.
Tomorrow, the Bakshi Stadium in Srinagar will be filled with police and officials when the tricolour will be unfurled and the State flag consigned to the dust-heap of history. What will resound in the Valley are Shah’s misplaced words that terminating Article 370 will end terrorism and usher in development. This is a patently false narrative.
On terrorism, post Burhan Wani, new militancy acquired an indigenous and religious colour: From Sufi to Salafi. Of the 250 militants in the Valley, 60 per cent are local lads. The Army’s ‘Operation All Out’ has gained an upper hand but its valuable hearts and minds campaign is absent. Last week, the Army announced that 83 per cent of the terrorists have a history of stone-throwing and advised mothers that if their wards were throwing stones for `500, they were “tomorrow’s terrorists.” The Army has dramatically reduced life-cycle of terrorists to “ten days to one year” from “six months to three to five years” a decade ago. The double whammy of eradicating special status and diminution from State to a Union Territory will produce a backlash — a virulent form of alienation.
Pakistan will not let go this opportunity to add fuel to fire. It has upped the ante by taking a number of political, diplomatic, people-to-people and military steps. While fidayeen squads have been infiltrated and more are in readiness, the use of IEDs and even classic suicide bombing a la Pulwama should be expected.
Stephen Cohen, the American India-Pakistan expert, had prophesied that wars between the two countries will go on for a hundred years before there is light at the end of the tunnel. The ORF researcher’s forecast about longevity of militancy is spot on. The Indian Army in Jammu & Kashmir since 1947, whose mandate is to create conditions for political outcomes — which it has many times — will remain stuck fighting limited wars triggered by inept politics.
Development in Jammu & Kashmir is a chimera. It’s the chicken and egg story about violence and development: Which comes first. As long as the roots of militancy are not addressed, socio-economic development plans will be hollow. None of the past promises by India Inc and PMO’s economic packages were implemented due to violence and political instability. In 1995, when militancy was endemic, Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw, who was chairman of one of the companies in Jammu & Kashmir, made this tongue-in-cheek offer to a retired Major General: “Look sweetie, there’s this sick sawmill in Srinagar. It has no power, no labour, no wood, no security. But I want you, with your contacts in the Army, to operationalise it.” Even the Sam magic could not revive it.
Dr Haseeb Drabu, who was Jammu & Kashmir’s Finance Minister recently, said in a TV interview last week that linking Article 370 to the lack of development was misplaced. He asserted that the lack of public and private investment was due to militancy and violence. The powers for lease of land for 90 years and extendable have always been there: That’s how Hotel Oberoi, ITC and others came in. There is a big opportunity. For example, India is the fifth largest producer of apples in the world, of which 2.5 mn tonnes are from Jammu & Kashmir. Drabu said the situation will get worse due to uncertainty from the State’s demotion to a Union Territory, Finance Commission award and Goods and Services Tax.
In the external domain, there is misplaced optimism about having outflanked Pakistan. While Russia, the UAE and Maldives have called the Constitutional re-adjustments as an internal matter, others are sitting on the fence. The US said it was not consulted, counselled restraint and referred both countries to resolving outstanding issues through bilateral dialogue. The UN, while rejecting mediation, called for maximum restraint, affirming Jammu & Kashmir is governed by the UN Charter and applicable UN Security Council Resolutions and advised guidance by the Simla Agreement, which states that “the final status of Jammu & Kashmir is to be settled by peaceful means….”
UN High Commission on Human Rights in its July 8 report had painted a grim though exaggerated picture of violation of civil liberties in Jammu & Kashmir. UN Special Rapporteur on freedom of expression has called the present crackdown as draconian. The China story is one of shifting stance. Initially, Beijing called “parties concerned to exercise restraint and caution”, especially actions that unilaterally change status quo. Later, it noted that creating Ladakh as separate Union Territory could alter status quo along the India-China border and damage China’s territorial sovereignty by unilaterally modifying domestic law, which was unacceptable. Still later, after the visit of Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi to Beijing, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi referred both countries to the Simla Agreement, UN Charter and UN Security Council resolutions. All-weather allies agreed to work on a joint UN strategy. This could be the beginning of a two-front diplomatic offensive.
The Government is in for a long haul in Jammu & Kashmir. Winning the hearts and minds of Kashmiris can alone facilitate their integration into India. Modi and Shah’s promises of development will not compensate Kashmiris for what they have lost: Autonomy and special status.
(The writer is a retired Major General of the Indian Army and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the revamped Integrated Defence Staff)
Writer: Ashok K Mehta
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Only the future knows if the revocation of Article 370 will be a success or failure. Although one must hope for good to come out of it.
In my last opinion piece in The Pioneer on August 3, I had concluded my piece with a plea for the real Narendra Modi to please stand up. Well, the Prime Minister answered my question quite definitively the very next day. Whatever may be his faults — undoubtedly there are many — self-confidence and the willingness to take risks are certainly not among them.
Undoubtedly, the high-stakes gamble in Jammu & Kashmir is one such. Whether the Prime Minister’s actions will turn out to be a grave miscalculation or a hugely successful one only time will tell. But whatever the future may hold, nobody can fault him for lacking in courage for his “bold” attempt to cut the “Gordian Knot” ie, the Kashmir dispute, which has strangled peace and progress in the sub-continent for over seven decades now ever since independence.
While the unholy pact between the National Conference (NC) and the Congress to suborn the 1987 local elections in the State resulted in insurgency, that continues to haunt us to this day, it was the British meddling — the true unfinished agenda of Partition — that has finally been laid to rest. The only dispute that now remains and requires early resolution — either bilaterally or through third party mediation — is for the return of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) to us.
Though in the interest of peace and goodwill in the region, we should be willing to forego our claims in exchange for recognition of the Line of Control (LoC) as the international boundary. Then, open borders in the not too distant future, something that many on both sides crave, could be a distinct possibility.
Every counter-insurgency practitioner knows well and understands that no insurgency can ever be successfully defeated through just military means. Insurgencies are political in nature and, thus, can only be resolved through political initiatives. Yet, over the past three decades that this insurgency has ebbed and flowed in Jammu & Kashmir, never has any Government expended the necessary political capital required to resolve the issue satisfactorily.
Thus, we have seen repeated cycles of violence that have adversely impacted developmental activities in the State. Moreover, given the law of diminishing returns, controlling violence and returning the State to relative calmness after each successive cycle of violence has got much more difficult and complex. Thus, undoubtedly, this initiative of the Prime Minister will be wholeheartedly welcomed by the security forces, especially the Army, as the goal of winning hearts and minds has a more substantive focus.
Whether the manner in which Article 370 has been employed to supersede the Presidential Order of 1954 with a new order of August 2019 — which allows for the supersession of Article 35A as well as the application of the entire Indian Constitution in the State — is unconstitutional or not is for the courts to decide. But clearly, as a temporary provision that it was stated to be, it had long outlived its utility. By no stretch of imagination did it protect the Kashmiri identity or culture, Kashmiriyat, as many suggest.
It had instead become a potent weapon in the hands of vested interests, which allowed them to exploit the State for personal ends. The truth that Kashmiriyat died the very day the Hindu minority in the Valley was targetted and forced to flee, most of who continue to languish in refugee camps, cannot be wished away.
In this context, therefore, those, who allege that this initiative of the Government was against our “secular” framework and aimed at further marginalising the Muslim minority, are being parochial in their outlook apart from being extremely hypocritical, given that they have done little or even shown any concern or compassion for those rendered homeless within their own country.
Pakistan’s reaction to all of this has been along expected lines. For its Army to respond in any other manner, given that its primacy within the country is directly linked to the situation in Jammu & Kashmir, is simply not viable. If this dispute were to be somehow resolved, the importance of the Pakistan Army would be greatly diminished, which would hurt not only the ego of many Generals but also their extensive business interests.
Yet, their room for manoeuvre is severely constrained, especially given Pakistan’s economic situation. Nevertheless, the threats of war emanating from there need to be taken seriously and bankruptcy has never stopped warmongers.
Obviously, given the meticulous manner in which this political initiative has been planned, one can be certain that the Government is well prepared to deal with any foolishness the Pakistan Army may decide to indulge in.
In a just-concluded conference organised by the Observer Research foundation (ORF) on ‘Tackling Insurgent Ideologies 2.0’, a speaker made a pertinent point that while a compromise on financial issues is a relatively easy possibility, given that both sides can negotiate to reach a middle ground, it is not so easy to do so when negotiations involve the politics of identity, which tend to be seen as a zero-sum game.
A seemingly intractable problem that has been around for seven decades is not going to just disappear and it will require much patience and understanding before the general population comes around and accepts the new reality. In the interim, the possibility of sporadic street violence cannot be ruled out.
But what probably scares Pakistan and even more local mainstream political and separatist leaders the most is the possibility that the general population in the Valley may not respond with violence to the new scheme of things. This could well be because they have, over a period o time, realised that the price
paid by successive generations for such opposition has been extremely high; while its fruits have only been enjoyed by those who have instigated the mobs.
Moreover, given the thorough preparations made by the Government, the large quantum of force deployed will also be a very big deterrent as well.
Finally, the optimistic view could be that the average Kashmiri is quite tired of the way things have gone in these last few decades and would be willing to give this game-changing initiative a try.
Whatever be the reason, if that were to happen, the credibility of the Pakistani Generals and local politicians alike would be badly hurt, which in turn would certainly decimate the business of insurgency in quick time.
One can only hope and pray that good sense will prevail and the course of events turns out just this way. That would not only be a victory for the country but also for the long suffering people of Jammu & Kashmir, who have been held hostage by circumstances for far too long and have been forced to pay a very high price in blood. We all deserve better.
(The writer, a military veteran, a consultant with the Observer Research Foundation and a Senior Visiting Fellow with The Peninsula Foundation, Chennai)
Writer: Deepak Sinha
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Returning to her former role, the Congress matriarch may now find difficulty in handling disputes within the party.
The Congress is a grand old party indeed, so set in its ways that it sticks by them as it fears anything that’s new wave. In the process, India changed and slipped out of its hands. Still the altered reality that has clearly denounced all that the Congress has so far been known for — chief among them dynastic entitlement, minority politics, coterie culture and social welfarism — has failed to shake it up from inside. There was a chance this time to turn the poison of electoral irrelevance of a decade into a real cure with revival but the battered ship has left the harbour to sail in choppy waters again. Not that there weren’t winds of change within. Rahul Gandhi’s leadership may not have delivered results that matter but under his stewardship, a sizeable rank of Young Turks has emerged. Chastened by political wisdom and most importantly, seeking personal legacies with their voluntary performance than gifted family posts, some of them have not only made a difference on the ground but also challenged old world cliquism by showing that they, too, could chart a new course that could work despite the BJP juggernaut. Nobody understood this better than Rahul himself, who was at the receiving end of the worst kind of assaults on his lineage, and was, therefore, willing to break through by disowning party positions that came courtesy it and work like an ordinary partyman. And though there was no open revolt, the divide became more and more apparent, particularly when the young brigade approved the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. Many feel that the gradual divergence, besides Rahul’s aversion to continuing as chief or letting any family member continue at the helm, was to force the inevitable, a new order. One which even gathered some encouragement from practical minded old-timers like Amarinder Singh and Karan Singh. But the rigid old guard, which has built its political legitimacy by virtue of the party’s top positions, cosying up to the leadership and becoming its filter and sieve for the grassroots, scuttled the chances of Young Turks by bringing back Sonia Gandhi as the interim president. The only shift that the new leaders could effect was to get state units have a say in electoral committees of those headed for new Assemblies and a promise of organisational elections. While the Rahul camp sincerely threw names like Jyotiraditya Scindia for Congress presidentship, the old guard threw around decoys when they were actually working on his mother, convincing her the situation was desperate enough for herself to be more voluble.
Sonia Gandhi has always been a reluctant leader, even after Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination. And though she has overseen two UPA governments as Congress chief, she is not in a position to make any dramatic difference now. But she has always given in to persuasion and interpretation of the old guard, some of whom have convinced her that the party would split or wither away if it didn’t have the family seal. And given the traumatic existence of the Gandhis’ political life or the burden of legacy that was thrust upon her, she surely doesn’t want to be seen as driving the party to extinction. Her loyalists know this and except senior leader AK Antony, who said Sonia should not be saddled with party affairs again because of her health, everybody else welcomed the status quo. Sonia Gandhi has been the face of compromise for much of her political life, holding all UPA constituents and allies together at one time with her personal intervention and gravitas. Not only that, she can bind the Opposition. This was one of the reasons why alliances with regional partners failed during the Rahul regime and no UPA 3 could emerge before the Lok Sabha election. Though that’s lost, as interim Congress president she can unite both the old and new in the party. Even Rahul wouldn’t have an objection to that. On the face of it, there has been a smooth transition of power within the cocoon of family warmth that the Congress is scared to part with. Politically, the reformist young lot, who are in their middling years now, may not like to fight senior hawks and lose again. They may retreat or chase new horizons rather than being “alone.” The Congress matriarch may not be able to assuage her son and his vision, saying they would have their time, but may be compelled to give something to loyalists given Assembly polls are around the corner. While the BJP may gleefully scream “I told you so”, Sonia’s biggest worry is the raging emotions despite her calm visage. Her party needs to buck up now.
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
The revoking of Article 370 caused many leaders demanding the repeal of the revocation. However, Congress failed to make any such moves. The union of Modi-Shah duo enabled J&K to stand together.
It appears as if every prominent leader of the Indian National Congress (INC) is running around like a headless chicken after the momentous decision taken by the Narendra Modi Government to abrogate Article 370 and fully integrate Jammu & Kashmir into the Indian Union.
That the INC is no longer “national” or “nationalist” is now obvious going by the utter confusion at top-level decision-making but the party was not always like this. It had robust and patriotic leaders in the past and there is sufficient evidence of this in our parliamentary records. Here is a sample of what tall leaders of the party, including K Hanumanthaiah, Member of the Constituent Assembly, former Chief Minister of Mysore and later Union Minister for Railways, had to say in the Lok Sabha on September 11, 1964, on abrogation of Article 370 and of their disillusionment with the pusillanimity of the Congress:
Hanumanthaiya (Congress): “Not merely Members of Parliament from Kashmir but irrespective of parties — from the extreme right to the extreme left of this House — we are all of one opinion that this Bill (abrogating Article 370) should be made into a law. To go against it or to say anything against this unanimous opinion of this House is to disown Constitutional responsibility in a convenient manner. Article 370…stands in the way of full integration.”
Hanumanthaiya also dealt with the constant fear in the Government about world opinion. Referring to the Western nations he said, “They are not our masters. It is not they, who have to dictate…It is the responsibility of this House to direct this…”. He said he would appeal to the Government “not to be nervous about world opinion or about opinions expressed by the UK, the US, Soviet Russia or any other power.” The Government, he said, should shake off “inferiority complex” that it had inherited from the British days and stop worrying about the response of foreign powers.
He said, “Here is a case where we could show equal determination and courage and solve the problem once and for all.” He told his Government to stop being so modest and realise that India was stronger and more influential than most countries in the world…”.
Considering how Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah executed the plan to abrogate Article 370 — with quiet determination and the virtual endorsement of it by many nations, thanks to Modi’s sustained, calibrated diplomatic contacts with global leaders over the last five years — it appears as if they were following the advice given by Hanumanthaiya to his own party 55 years ago.
In fact, some parts of Hanumanthaiya’s speech sound like he was delivering them on August 5, 2019. He said, “This is the unanimous opinion of this House (to abrogate Article 370) and it is applauded by the whole country. Therefore, I want the Government to take a determined stand…”
In conclusion, he thanked Prakash Vir Shastri for bringing the private Bill for repeal of Article 370, which had won the admiration of members across the political divide.
Many other Congress stalwarts forcefully demanded repeal of Article 370 during this debate.
Bhagwat Jha Azad (Congress): The Government must fearlessly declare its policy on Kashmir. From Kashmir and across the Gangetic plains and the Narmada to Kanyakumari, people want to see full integration. No Government or party can go against the wishes of the people.
Ram Sahay Pandey (Congress): He blamed Jawaharlal Nehru for rushing to the United Nations to complain about infiltration of Pakistani troops into Kashmir after it acceded to India. He said by seeking UN’s intervention and accepting its ceasefire order, Nehru had squandered away a fine opportunity to recapture the territories, which were in illegal possession of Pakistan. Gen Thimayya, who was handling the military operations, had pleaded with the Government for just two more days to recapture these territories but Nehru’s move and the ceasefire wrecked the Indian Army’s plans.
Gopal Dutta Mengi (Congress): I support this Bill. All over India, people want Jammu & Kashmir to be fully integrated with the country. Constitute a committee of legal experts to extend the Union Government’s power to the State.
Inder J Malhotra (Congress): I…agree that Article 370 be omitted. The people of the State have no special liking for Article 370…and we shall be very happy as soon as this is omitted. I request the Home Minister that this Bill should not be opposed.
These sentiments were echoed by MPs across parties, including MV Kamath (Praja Socialist Party) and Ram Manohar Lohia (Socialist Party).
But the clincher came from DC Sharma, an Independent MP. He said, “Our Article 370 has disfigured our Constitution. This Article is nothing more than a Constitutional anachronism. I say that for the good name of India, for the Constitutional propriety of India, for the legal correctness of this country, this Article should be scrapped forthwith without any hesitation, without any doubt…this Article refers to those conditions, which no longer exist and which are not operative now. Therefore, this Constitutional impropriety, which is embedded in…370, must go.”
When we reflect over the advice Sharma gave to the Congress Government way back in 1964, which was not acted upon, the clarity of thinking in the present Government on such a tangled issue and the precision with which Prime Minister Modi and Shah have acted at this juncture, we realise the yawning gap between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on critical issues pertaining to national integrity and national security. Here is another example.
DC Sharma (Ind): Wisdom consists in settling unsettled things. The act of statesmanship is an act of boldness, firmness and decisiveness. But I do not know what has happened to my country that instead of settling unsettled things, we have unsettled settled things.
Finally, the clincher: “Article 370…is not a wall…it is a big mountain, which stands between India and Jammu & Kashmir. I feel this mountain should be blasted with dynamite, with the dynamite of goodwill, firmness and decision. That way lies the salvation of India and that way lies the good and welfare of the people of Jammu & Kashmir.”
Thanks to Modi, India no longer suffers from an “inferiority complex” that Hanumanthaiya lamented about. Also, Modi and Shah have acted with “boldness”, “firmness” and “decisiveness” — the qualities that MPs wanted the Congress Government to exhibit in 1964, “to settle unsettled things” and to blast the mountain called Article 370 “with the dynamite of goodwill, firmness and decision!”
(The writer is an author specialising in democracy studies. Views expressed are personal)
Writer: A Surya Prakash
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Post article 370 revocation, the government aims at working toward managing conflict and peace in Kashmir.
There’s something inherently reassuring about the return of normalcy in the daily rhythms of life, people moving about in the streets, shopping for rations, visiting places of worship, children going to schools and the elderly taking their walks. Life, as it happens around us in its mundane beats, gives a strange sense of continuity and status quo. The Valley, which was traumatised into silence after heavy security deployment, the abrogation of Article 370 and its declaration as Union Territory, came out on the streets despite the overturning of what had so far underpinned its political existence. At least, people attempted to resume their social life as they knew it with the relaxation of restrictions, albeit under strict vigilance. Some of them even managed to speak to the Press despite the presence of security personnel, even sharing their repressed views and fears. Others lamented the lockdown had thrown life out of gear. Yet others went about shopping for Bakr-Id, hoping their sincere prayers would be heard and bloodshed would stop in the Valley. This is an uneasy truce, something they have lived with for years, but the inevitability of a changed status is new to them. And they do not quite know how to react. This is where Naya Bharat’s Kashmir doctrine will be put to test, whether the healing touch of socio-economics will win over the people’s hearts or not, whether the muscularity of a bold move will be complemented by an empathetic understanding of people’s needs, where majoritarians understand that yielding space and listening may deliver greater returns than expected and that a tectonic policy shift also entails a mindset change.
Of course, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s outreach does talk about issues that matter to the ordinary Kashmiri — boosting growth, powering MSMEs, developing a tourism hub, opening institutions of excellence, marketing Kashmir’s heritage crafts, creating jobs and so on. Now translating them on the ground must be done judiciously. While Jammu might feel that it has been denied resources because of the special status to Kashmir for too long, it shouldn’t be seen as being rewarded so much that Kashmir feels the integration was just a political punishment. As a State, which was undoubtedly under-served economically and infrastructure wise, it still had been able to maintain some healthy growth indices. Because, though buying land as promised may seem like a whole new world, the fact is the 99-year lease model has worked for setting up existing businesses. While the nature of industries may be limited given the region’s Himalayan terrain and climate concerns, it can become a major pharmaceutical, medical and research hub with more knowledge-based units. The educated Kashmiri youth could become a national asset as they have proved their excellence, particularly in scientific disciplines, in the rest of India and abroad. Harnessing them properly and absorbing them in jobs could undoubtedly give us a talent pool but it’s a tough act considering there is joblessness in the rest of the country. It is difficult to demonstrate short-term gains in Kashmir where reclaiming peace will undoubtedly be a long journey. And without that stability, investment will just not come in. For starters, the re-organisation has pushed the civil society further away from us. And tainting politically-elected leaders as the nation’s disruptors and arresting them have distanced any hope of a return to consultative and consensual dialogue. They need to be coopted, not distanced, considering they have always chosen to side with democracy. Even the educated elite have through generations invested their faith in the idea of India than separatism, and so the Government must take care to ensure that trust is not misplaced. For the sense of betrayal could result in unimagined hitbacks. This requires a velvet glove approach considering the abolition of statehood has also meant a denial of their identity as they knew it. The mass protests by ethnic Muslims from Kargil are warning bells that bifurcation could trigger demands for further division and autonomy, resulting in unrest. The Government needs to have its ear stuck to the ground to anticipate implications and have a redressal mechanism in place. The panchayat model of devolution of power should now be systematically built up to local governance structures. Unrealistic imposition can never transplant realistic grace.
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
Young Turks are impatient and if the CWC president emerges from the old guard, they could take drastic steps
Today could be a transformative day for the Congress as it would not only choose a new party president but decide whether it would go down the road to perdition or revival, stifle itself with formulaic tradition or break out of boxes, part with the old and stake everything on the new, and simply put, matter anymore in news headlines. Of course, murmurs are of the predictable kind, that the leadership vacuum created by the exit of Rahul Gandhi will be filled by a loyalist and a retainer of the old order, an endorsement that guarantees the centrality of the party’s first family without owning responsibility for the post. Even Gandhi’s good intentions, to force a rethink without dynasty and the baggage of history, will then come into question. It would seem like he, too, played along with the tested plot of foisting a lesser leader and seeking a distress vote to resume dynastic control. Clearly, that will be ruinous given the current context where the party is clearly split down the middle over key issues, the latest being the abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir. The younger lot of leaders, some of whom are believed to be of Rahul Gandhi’s camp, like Jyotiraditya Scindia, Deepender Hooda and Milind Deora, are clearly looking for a changed axis in a Modi-fied and Naya India and want their voices heard as new Congressmen. So all of them publicly endorsed the revocation of Article 370 contrary to the stance of senior Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad in the Rajya Sabha. The less said about the forked tongue approach in the Lok Sabha the better with CLP leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury going to the other extreme of classifying Kashmir as not an “internal” matter. This forced the old guard to pass a united resolution emphasising the whole of Kashmir as an integral part of India and just criticising the NDA government’s lack of a democratic and consultative political process behind the reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir. Hooda and Deora are facing Assembly elections in their States and do not want to go against the national sentiment while seeking votes. Younger leaders like Sachin Pilot are also living down their dynastic entitlement and working towards creating their personal legacies with practical logic. With all of them now 40ish and middling, they want to take a last shot at credibility than perish away into extinction. This young lot is also not averse to organisational elections to build inner-party democracy first before espousing it in Parliament or blaming other parties for running roughshod over it. Elections, they feel, would infuse new energy and get new faces in on the basis of political acumen and deliverables. Particularly Jyotiraditya Scindia, the co-general secretary of Uttar Pradesh with Priyanka Gandhi and believed to be an inner circle member, has put pressure on the party by publicising his support for the Government move on Kashmir and sparking speculation whether the disenchanted Congress brigade had parked themselves in the shopping cart.
Of course, senior leaders are still prevailing on Congress matriarch Sonia Gandhi, warding off elections for fear of being sidelined. After all, their undisputed runs in the party have meant that they have carved their own fiefdoms too and legitimised their continuity by virtue of maintaining these turfs and votebanks. Truth be told, most senior leaders in the CWC have not fought elections in a long, long time and are out of depth with ground reality. For example, one of the names for CWC president, Mukul Wasnik, last won an election in 2009. Were they to contest now, they would lose their deposits. So they don’t want to let go of their status quo in the Congress, hoping their posts would still lengthen their political careers. What the Gandhis need to understand is that egoistic dramas have run their course and it is time to either hand over charge fully or rescue it upfront. The Congress leadership, which is either calculatedly or helplessly driving the party to disaster, better value its political relevance over selfish interests. Because when the former is gone, even the latter won’t be of any consequence. If all this is part of an elaborate attempt to create an irretrievable mess where the Gandhis would look like supreme saviours, then one could also look at a consensus candidate who is accepted in their presence. And that would be an anti-climax.
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
Freezing economic ties won’t have much consequence but the cessation of diplomatic ties is not good for both nations
There is no doubt that after the Balakot strikes, which showed how Pakistan’s jihadi adventurism could be curbed while staying well under the nuclear threshold, and now the reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir, which removes Kashmir as a pre-condition for diplomatic engagement, our western neighbour has to have a newscript. Till then, it has to keep up the noise and bluster of aggression, hemmed in as it is by international pressure advising restraint against escalation and the US making its strategic relevance conditional upon helping it swing the Taliban in Afghanistan. It is also true that while both Balakot and the revocation of Article 370 may have seemingly shocked Pakistan, it was implicitly prepared for the boldness of Modi 2.0, its Prime Minister Imran Khan grudgingly admitting that at least he could get Kashmir moving. And now that Modi has indeed moved the cheese in Kashmir, Pakistan has no option but to wipe off the spilt milk. Since there cannot be naked aggression, it has done the next best thing — squeezing diplomatic ties with India, recalling its envoy and sending back ours, shutting down airspace and Samjhauta Express and suspending trade.
And contrary to perception, Pakistan isn’t imploding. Yes, its economy is in a bad shape and to that end it has taken steps, no matter how cosmetic, to crack down on terror factories and convince the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which blacklists IMF and World Bank loans and grants to terror-funding States, that it is making progress. It may have lost its diplomatic edge but not been blunted completely as it has negotiating power with the Taliban. So it would be wrong to assume that it would come around to India’s terms or change tack on Jammu and Kashmir. Yes, India’s latest moves have clearly removed the possibility of talks as a continuing weapon of stalling under the garb of good intention. It has also reclassified the Kashmir issue as not one of aspiration but a creation of Pakistan-exported terror. Yet, robbed of its favourite pitches, Pakistan did counter Balakot robustly, shooting down our aircraft, denying its own F 16 loss and through an aerial dogfight at least showed that it was capable of reciprocal hitback, no matter what the diplomatic consequence. Similarly, even though it knows that raising the UNSC resolution bogey is fruitless, considering it has violated it with its own intrusions, it will make big announcements to take care of domestic imperatives. It is using the same logic to internationalise Kashmir, using its changed status as the raison-d-etre of renewed neighbourly hostilities, challenging India’s “internalisation” with “externalisation” of alarmist impacts.
Truth be told, the cessation of bilateral trade ties will hit it more as India has been downgrading volumes consistently, particularly after Balakot, considering trade was being used as a conduit for funding terror operations inside Kashmir. Our export bouquet to Pakistan is really limited considering it has never given us “most favoured nation” status though we had done so in the past. Most of what we sell to Pakistan are agri-products, which can easily be diverted to markets in Southeast Asia. Cross-border volumes shrank as India imposed 200 per cent customs duty on imports after Pulwama. While India’s exports to Pakistan stood at $2 billion, imports were about $500 million per year. Imports from Pakistan declined by 92 per cent to $2.84 million in March this year compared to $34.61 million in March 2018, according to commerce ministry data. Mutual trade makes up for really minuscule proportions for both in world markets. Of course, in a healthy scenario, both countries could have a significant volume of transformative trade in the region, some estimating a $37 billion potential, but that in any case has never been pursued. So there isn’t much to rue either. But yes, a diplomatic freeze doesn’t work any which way. A stalemate does give Pakistan time to recalibrate and reconfigure a new “bleeding cuts” policy. Meanwhile, the Government must take care of engaging with the mature civil society, as also legitimately elected political leaders of the Valley, who have so far invested themselves in our democratic processes, and not leave them out in the cold. Pakistan is precisely looking for this alienated space to occupy and justify its intervention. Given the brutality of the lockdown, with news trickling in of food shortages and pellet gun attacks, the Government shouldn’t compound the local’s sense of being let down. A flashpoint could then become a volcano.
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
The RBI has cut interest rates to the lowest levels in nine years but can that jumpstart the Indian economy?
The 35 odd-basis point cut in inter-bank interest rates by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was seen as an indication that a quarter per cent cut was too little and a half per cent cut may be a bit too much. Whatever it was, it is seemingly unlikely that this will be the booster shot the Indian economy needs because banks are still hesitant to lend money to customers and even if they do, few are passing on the benefits of lower rates to customers. Almost all our banks, particularly public sector ones, are still suffering from the profligacy with which they forwarded loans a decade ago. So when the Chairman of India’s largest bank, the State Bank of India, says that he looks to the heavens to pray when speaking about top insolvent accounts, it becomes evident that even the reforms on the insolvency code haven’t really helped matters. And now the dramatic collapse in non-banking financial companies has only made the situation worse. But is it just about a switch, as some are commenting, that could turn 18 months of gloom overnight? Is India just in a vicious cycle of negativity that is making consumers and companies hold on to the purse strings tight? Could an injection of positivity be the change that India needs, one that will make banks lend again and consumers buy again? But where will that injection of positivity come from is the question. Quite clearly, it is not going to be from rate cuts, unless thanks to the reduction of interest rates, it becomes apparent that the best way to deploy one’s financial assets is to spend because the money will not earn much interest in the bank. May be the positivity that India needs will be a good monsoon, which will lead to a positive festive season come September with Onam kicking off the upbeat sentiment. Indeed, the Onam floods of 2018 in Kerala were the ignition source for the dramatic slowdown in sales for the Indian automotive industry.
The events surrounding Kashmir notwithstanding, the government really needs to ramp up its efforts on the economy. Because not only are behemoths dramatically scaling back new hires, the class of 2019 is finding it impossible to get jobs as companies have begun layoffs. This, and not the reactions in Kashmir, should be keeping Narendra Modi up at night. The cycle of negativity has to be broken and a rate slash frankly does not cut the mustard.
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
The Government’s launch of the KUSUM programme to promote solar power bodes well for farmers, DISCOMs and the environment. But there are impending challenges, including a huge financial liability on farmers themselves. Moreover, will they really be willing to join the scheme?
In a recent interview, Minister of State for Power and Renewable Energy RK Singh informed about a scheme viz the Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthaan Mahabhiyan (KUSUM), which the Government proposes to implement over a period of three years.
Intended to promote the use of solar energy in rural areas, KUSUM allows a farmer to use his barren land — currently lying fallow — to set up a solar plant on it for 1 MW or so (in case the land is cultivable, he can set it up on stilts and grow crop below). Whereas, during the crop season (spanning over three to four months), the farmer can use the power for cultivation, for the remaining part of the year, units generated at the plant will be purchased by the Centre.
The Union Government will give capital subsidy to cover 30 per cent of the cost while the State will bear another 30 per cent. Of the balance 40 per cent, the farmer will get 30 per cent as loan at a concessional interest rate and will have to pay 10 per cent from his pocket. The total cost of implementing the scheme is estimated to be about Rs 146,000 crore, of which the Centre’s contribution will be Rs 34,000 crore.
The scheme has the potential to bring about a fundamental transformation in not just the way farming is done to augment farmers’ income but also help in giving a new lease of life even to power distribution companies (DISCOMs), which at present are literally on a ventilator, gasping for life.
For the farmer, the solar plant will not only supply all his electricity requirement (for running pump sets and other needs, including domestic consumption) but also generate surplus, particularly during the non-cropping period, which can be sold to generate cash. Besides, this will drastically reduce spends on diesel (irrigation bill can go down by as much as 90 per cent) and help reduce the load on the environment. Saving on oil import bill will be an added bonus.
At present, there is overexploitation of ground water, courtesy unrestricted availability of electricity at heavily subsidised rates (even free in some States). However, in a scenario of having their own power source juxtaposed with an incentive that they can increase their income by selling surplus power, the farmers will be motivated to shun the current unhealthy practice, thereby conserve and prevent depletion of ground water.
For the DISCOMs, this could be a blessing in disguise. Currently, a major reason for their incurring loss year-after-year is the supply of power to farmers and households at heavily subsidised rates or even free (under direction from their owner viz, the States). Even after charging exorbitant rates from industries, they are unable to make up for the shortfall in realisation from sale to these preferred consumers. Their woes are exacerbated by large-scale power theft.
Now, if farmers can meet their power requirement from the captive source (solar plant), this will obviate the need for supply from DISCOMs. When the latter does not have to supply electricity to the former, the losses associated with such supplies (albeit at subsidised/below cost tariff) will automatically disappear.
In short, the scheme could be a gateway to a wonderland wherein farmers will be better off, DISCOMs financially healthy and environment will bear less pain. But this scenario appears too good to be true.
Given the State of Union’s precarious finances, garnering the required resources of Rs 34,000 crore for capital subsidy will be a big challenge. For the same reason, getting the States to contribute another 30 per cent will be a daunting task. Even more worrying is the balance 40 per cent, which has to be arranged by the farmer. Apart from the 10 per cent, which he has to give upfront, the responsibility of amortising the loan component, 30 per cent, falls entirely on him.
Today, the Government perceives the farmers’ economic situation to be so precarious that it was prompted to give Rs 6,000 annually to the farmers under the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) so that they can buy agricultural inputs such as fertilisers, seeds and pesticides among other things. How then are they expected to pay a huge sum of Rs 4.5 million @10 per cent (cost of 1 MW solar plant: Rs 45 million) being their contribution upfront? Servicing the loan of Rs 13.5 million (30 per cent of Rs 45 million) will be even more excruciating as interest alone at subsidised @7 per cent will come to Rs 945,000 annually. Moreover, till such time the solar plant is commissioned and becomes operational, it will be double-whammy for the farmers, who will continue to spend money on diesel for running the pump set in addition to servicing the loan. They may not survive for the day when the gains from captive source start accruing.
Given the impending challenges in particular, a huge financial liability on them, the big question is whether the farmers will really be willing to join the scheme. This is most unlikely all the more when for decades, they are used to free/heavily subsidised power arranged by power-hungry politicians, who thrive on populist measures such as this. When the present is easy going, why would they transit to an effort-based, self-driven system san sops? KUSUM may be a non-starter!
(The writer is a New Delhi-based policy analyst)
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
FREE Download
OPINION EXPRESS MAGAZINE
Offer of the Month