The Modi Government will build six more submarines. But the 20-year saga of Project 75 is a telling aspect
As India marks the 20th anniversary of the action in Kargil, we are coming close to a decision taken in the aftermath of that war, the final phase of the Project 75 submarine acquisition. The Cabinet recently announced a tender for expressions of interest from Indian ship-builders for the Rs 45,000 crore project to build six submarines under the Project 75-I class. India currently has 15 submarines in service, several of whom are old Russian Kilo-class, over three decades old, and called the Sindhughosh-class in Indian Navy.
India recently inducted Kalvari, the lead boat of the Project 75, over two decades after the initial requirements were drawn up, while three are undergoing sea trials. The proposed Project 75-I submarines will be even more advanced with the capability to launch land and ship attack cruise missiles but those ships are over a decade away from even entering the sea. These, in addition to the Arhant-class of nuclear submarines, of which we will end up with four for the time being, will put India’s submarine fleet size by 2030 at around 20-25 boats. Just for context, China developed and built its Type 39 and Type 39A submarines in the same period of time, building over 30 of those boats. And these are just China’s conventional diesel-powered submarine force. It has six new nuclear-powered attack submarines, along with three old ones. Its new Type-94 J in-class of ballistic missile submarine is a clear and present danger to India. The Cabinet’s decision to go ahead with the Project 75-I is commendable but that does not discount from the fact that India is losing the submarine-building race to China by a country mile. China is out-producing India by massive margins even when it comes to fleet strength and the Indian Navy’s obsession with aircraft carriers has led to poor decision-making when it comes to building a large number of ships to counter China’s Indian Ocean strategy. China’s ship-building abilities are so far ahead now that it is easily able to export submarines and ships to countries like Pakistan. India needs to up its defence acquisition game just to remain in the same competitive atmosphere as China and this will need us to become far more capable of making our own defensive equipment as well as working with friendly nations from across the world. But crucially, it means we get serious about our defence. For years, we have sat back and pondered, straitjacketed by the fear of scams and auditors, and it is ironic that this assertive India that we are sold by politicians has just a creaking military force. This decision by the Government should be the first of many and unshackled from the wild allegations thrown about by Rahul Gandhi during the Rafale purchase. Narendra Modi has to deliver.
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
With 4 Rajya Sabha MPs joining the BJP and a strong CM in Jaganmohan Reddy, the TDP chief barely clutches at survival
It is only now that the implications of a mammoth verdict for the Narendra Modi-led government are unravelling in the political domain and resetting its grammar and syntax. In the first wave, its nationalist, majoritarian, centrist and populist stance completely swamped the seemingly secular, minority-pleasing and liberal discourse of the Congress, sending that party and its president Rahul Gandhi into post-electoral trauma. In the second wave, now that the new Government has got down to the business of governance and is reworking Centre-State relations as one of cooperative and not combative federalism, it is but natural that the federal parties do not have the same stand-alone relevance or bargaining positions as they did in the coalition era. So they are being subsumed to the interests of national politics in general and to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in particular. It is no surprise then that unless willing, like Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which has worked out a quid pro quo, running the State in exchange for supporting the BJP at the Centre, federal parties, especially the antagonists, will be subject to poaching and re-engineering of their social bases. On its part, the BJP, which has 303 seats in the Lok Sabha, is keen to make the most of its numerical strength and drive key policy shifts. But with inadequate numbers in the Rajya Sabha, it is looking to win some State elections or finding allies to change its composition and push through the legislative agenda by mid-term. By this logic, it’s understandable why within a day of Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief N Chandrababu Naidu heading to Europe with his family, four of his six Rajya Sabha MPs quit and joined the BJP, hurtling him into a fresh crisis.
For the BJP, this is payback for Naidu, its one-time ally, who not only walked out of the NDA over denial of special status to Andhra Pradesh but was one of the architects of the mahagathbandhan for a non-BJP government at the Centre. The TDP has already suffered a humiliating defeat in both the State and general elections to YSR Congress of Jaganmohan Reddy and is a dot of a presence with just three of the State’s 25 Lok Sabha MPs and 23 of 175 MLAs. The State BJP’s claim that the crisis will worsen before Naidu returns is meant to unsettle him further. The four MPs — Y Sujana Chowdhury, TG Venkatesh, CM Ramesh and Garikapati Rammohan Rao — are all industrialists that Naidu has nurtured over time and have made it very clear that they joined the BJP only because development of the State is possible if they have good relations with the Modi Government. It is also pertinent that two of them are facing heat from the CBI and ED and are trading off support for immunity. And with a comfortable equation between Modi and new Chief Minister Jaganmohan Reddy, Naidu, who has bounced back before from troughs and has even challenged his mentor and father-in-law NT Rama Rao, may be looking at his swan song. There is no doubt that Naidu has squandered all his political and territorial gains by aligning with the Congress, playing into Reddy’s trap by riling up the BJP over the special status package, turning the party into a family fief, chasing national fortunes and ignoring real issues of his home turf. Reddy may have hired political managers but he did build a door-to-door connect with the people of the State, travelling non-stop. This disconnect happened despite some good work that Naidu did, like getting automobile giant Kia Motors to set up a plant in Anantapur, integrating the Godavari and Krishna to provide water to farmers and launching bicycle ambulances. Of course, Naidu has none of NTR’s charisma or mass appeal and is a more a builder than a communicator. Besides, he had ended up upsetting the Kapus, sensing which the BJP weaned away Congress’ Kapu leader Kanna Laxminarayana, made him the State president and hoped he would lure more of his kind. If Naidu loses the Kapus, as is being speculated, then he would indeed find it difficult to fight back. The BJP, which is heady after verdict 2019, should also remember that swelling its ranks by chipping away at others does not mean an organic extension of the party’s network or ideology to the southern States. Transnational politics is but a short-term conquest and can collapse like a house of cards as the Congress is learning from its alliance with Kumaraswamy in neighbouring Karnataka.
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
In a conflict between parallel enquiries into the Easter bombings, the question of accountability will be drowned. The Sirisena Government can’t evade tough questions by vilifying Muslims
Two months after the Easter bombings, while the dots have been connected, accountability is still playing truant. Besides others, India had alerted Sri Lanka on April 4, 10, 16, 20 and 21 but incredibly, security agencies in Colombo took no action. On this page, after the horrendous bombings, this writer had called the catastrophic event a mystery.
Both President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe of what was once a National Unity Government of two rival parties have said they received no official information on terror attacks. Sirisena is the Minister for Defence and Minister for Law and Order, which place all intelligence, defence, security and police agencies under his command. The Minister of State for Defence for good optics is in Wickremesinghe’s Cabinet. While Sirisena has ordered a presidential commission to investigate the bombings, the powerful speaker, Karu Jayasuriya, has appointed a parliamentary select committee (PSC) for enquiry. The PSC has had public hearings aired on television which has upset the President, who has since prohibited all serving defence, intelligence and security officials from testifying before it. It has been boycotted by Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).
Defence Secretary Hemasiri Fernando, who was forced to resign, told the PSC that intelligence was available on April 9 of a possible threat on April 21 and had assumed that Sri Lanka’s state intelligence services chief would have informed the President as was the practice. He added that as Defence Secretary, he could not meet the President — not even once in two weeks — as he had no time. The shocker was the revelation that Sirisena had told Fernando not to invite the Prime Minister, MoS for Defence and Inspector General Police, Pujith Jayasundara for National Security Council meetings since November 13, 2018, following the Constitutional crisis in which Sirisena had sacked Wickremesinghe and appointed Opposition leader and his presidential rival, Mahinda Rajapaksa, as Prime Minister, which was later revoked by the courts.
IGP Jayasundara, who refused to resign, was suspended by the President and moved the courts, told the PSC that prior intelligence was available, giving specific details about the catastrophic intelligence failure adding: “No emergency was declared.” He said Sirisena offered him an ambassadorial post for his resignation, assuring him that the presidential commission would clear his name. Jayasundara struck the final nail in the coffin by saying there was “total unpreparedness of Government to act on intelligence reports.”
The head of national intelligence, Sisira Mendis, a former police chief who reported directly to the President, testifying before the PSC said that the bombings could have been averted. Mendis also said that the President failed to hold regular security meetings to assess the threat from Islamic radicals linked to National Towheed Jamaat (NTJ). Sirisena has dismissed Mendis.
Linked to the suicide bombings is the revelation that in 2018, the premier spy agency, state intelligence chief, Nilantha Jayewardene, ordered the IGP to stop investigating Islamic militants as well as NTJ. He also did not take seriously the information provided by India on the radical NTJ. While in India for Prime Minister Modi’s swearing in, Sirisena said there was no proof that the bombers visited India, contradicting Army Commander Mahesh Senanayake, who told BBC that they did go to India for training. Clearing himself of any responsibility for the intelligence failures, Sirisena said: “I was in Sri Lanka upto April 16 before going to Singapore on a private visit. None of the defence Chiefs informed me of any such intelligence”.
All that one wished to know about the nine suicide bombers is now in the public domain. Zahran Hashim, the radical preacher linked to NTJ from Kattankudy in Batticaloa, which has Sri Lanka’s biggest mosque, was the ring leader. How the suicide bomber inside Taj Samudra hotel panicked, walked out and blew himself up along with two others in a small hotel in Dehiwala suburb of Colombo is well-known. None of the nine bombers was impoverished, physically or mentally challenged, but all highly educated and affluent, two of them millionaires and all roped in by Hashim. It was a small group connected with Hashim.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s capacity to self-destruct may be hurtling it towards another ethnic conflict. The majority Sinhala Buddhists, spearheaded by the clergy and political Opposition, have demonised the Muslims. Anti-Muslim riots, surpassing in scale the worst ones in 2018 in Digana, have occurred after the bombings. A false narrative of hatred and prejudice is being spread against Muslims. Fake tales about swords stored in mosques and mass sterilisation of Sinhalese by a Muslim doctor are being circulated.
Vilification of Muslims will further divide society as Muslims live across the country. Calling for unity among communities, it was disingenuous on part of Sirisena to warn them of the emergence of a Muslim Prabhakaran, an avoidable simile to the dreaded Tamil supremo of the LTTE who fought an ethnic conflict for three decades, ending 2009.
The mass resignation of two Muslim Governors and nine Ministers to enable the Government to conduct investigations, clearing them of linkages to suicide bombings, has opened a new front. Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) envoys based in Colombo have appealed to the Government to protect Muslims and their properties.
The presidential pardon to reactionary monk Gnanasara Thero, who was implicated in the anti-Muslim violence of 2018 and stormed a court hearing old cases of “enforced disappearances”, will add fuel to fire. Rumours against Muslims and anti-Muslim riots are a smoke screen to shift focus from the presidential and parliamentary enquiries to resurgent Sinhala Buddhist extremism directed at Muslims. The Government is drafting a legislation to change Muslim laws dealing with burqa, hijab, halal, mosques and madrasas in consultation with Muslim clergy and leadership.
The question of accountability will be drowned in the conflict between parallel enquiries reflecting the breakdown of the co-habitation Government. Why did Sirisena not know about the intended bombings and why did intelligence and security forces fail to act? Sirisena can only be investigated after January 2020 by a new President. But the broken-down Government cannot afford to wait to be fixed till after the elections.
The ultimate irony for Sri Lanka was when Wickremesinghe, after a meeting with Modi, who was on a five-hour visit to Colombo this month, sought India’s help in counter-terrorism. Since 2009 after vanquishing LTTE, Colombo has proudly showcased its unique prowess and skills in eliminating root and branch, terrorism in the 21st century — a historic first!
(The writer is a retired Major General of the Indian Army and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the revamped Integrated Defence Staff)
Writer: Ashok K Mehta
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Bihar’s AES deaths are symptomatic of policy apathy towards public health standards and failure to create awareness
The real headline behind the death of over a hundred children in Bihar’s Muzaffarpur is the utter lack of priority towards addressing primary health issues in a backward pocket that is living in denial of itself and the ruling class denies it even exists. So disembodied has reality become from our national narrative that losing a hundred young lives was disgustingly set aside by the Bihar Health Minister during a containment strategy meeting in favour of statistics of an ongoing cricket match. And that reality is of encephalitis assuming epidemic proportions in the dust bowl of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh every season, both of which serially account for 35 percent of child deaths in the country. The disease is just the manifestation of a chronic illness called malnutrition and low immunity, which makes the locals vulnerable to outbreak of brain fever, particularly the young and the old. The fact that this has been occurring cyclically since the mid-1990s shows how we have grossly misdiagnosed preventive and primary healthcare in the rural hinterland and failed to communicate combat strategies among the community. Had the children been given proper vaccines, had they access to equipped primary health centres and received first-line treatment, the deaths could have been avoided. Had there been proper awareness campaigns, then it would be found that neither encephalitis nor deadly litchi toxins from neighbouring fruit farms or hypoglycemia were the cause of the deaths. However, each worked together in varying degrees to exacerbate a malaise called collective apathy, covered up as a “mystery disease.”
The biggest problem is in defining the malady. Any brain disease, brought on by a virus, bacteria, parasites, chemicals or toxins can be defined as acute encephalitis syndrome, which basically manifests as inflammation of the brain. One has to isolate the causative variants, which could differ on a case by case basis. And as studies conducted by the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and the Atlanta-based Center for Disease Control (CDC) over the past few years have shown, the fever strikes when there is a severe heat wave. This leads to severe dehydration, worsening attendant problems relating to under-nourishment. Besides, most victims have been found to work or live near litchi cultivations, consumption of which some say has led to dipping blood sugar levels and hypoglycemia. But experts have found that malnourished children, who ate litchis and went to sleep without a meal, fell ill, particularly during the high heat of summer. And methylene cyclopropyl-glycine (MCPG) found in litchis only affects the brain in severely malnourished victims. So generalising litchi as a toxin and other such confusing theories are deflecting attention from the Bihar government’s abject failure in implementing public health correctives and developing resistance to a known health hazard. Early detection and treatment is a near impossibility in these parts with the nearest health centres sometimes eight hours away. That wait gets longer if the health centre is not equipped enough with either trained staff or intravenous glucose drips and the victim has to be taken to a State hospital. And although the Bihar government has mandated availability of free vaccines at all primary health centres, the execution is yet to be a hundred per cent. Little wonder then that with such glaring lacuna in crisis response, the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has sent notices to the Union Health Ministry and Bihar government over the Muzaffarpur deaths. There is a need for ensuring basic hygiene, health and nutrition parameters for our children, who are the social and human capital of the future. As an Asian powerhouse that’s looking to consolidate its economic and strategic standards, it is shocking that India continues to be among the topmost countries with the largest number of children being stunted (46.6 million) and wasted (25.5 million). This is despite the fact that children’s health has been the Government’s priority since 1975, when the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) scheme was rolled out, or 1995, when the mid-day meal scheme was launched nationally. The recent National Nutrition Strategy, too, aims to end malnutrition by 2022. It is expected to synergise efforts, monitor progress and issue alerts for timely action and help States/UTs achieve targeted goals. But all of this is possible only when there are resources. In short, budgetary allocation for the health sector needs a thorough relook.
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
Prakash Javadekar has launched a flagship project on enhancing capacity on forest landscape restoration and the Bonn Challenge in the country
Union environment minister, Prakash Javadekar speaking at an event in the capital on the occasion of the world day to combat desertification and drought, said that we as a country make targets not under any global pressure but for our own country’s real sustainable development. India will lead by example in combating desertification.
He further announced that India will be hosting the fourteenth session of the Conference of Parties (COP-14) from August 29 to September 14 at the India Expo Mart Limited, Greater Noida.
The union minister further highlighted that with about 30 percent of the country’s total geographical area being affected by land degradation; India has high stakes strongly committed to the convention. He said that various schemes have been launched by the government of India such as: Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), soil health card scheme, soil health management scheme, Pradhan Mantri Krishi Inchayee Yojna (PKSY), etc, which are helping to reduce land degradation. The union minister also unveiled the logo of COP-14 on the occasion.
Amitabh Kant, NITI Aayog, CEO said that the world day to combat desertification is a unique occasion to remind the global community that desertification can be effectively tackled, that solutions are possible, and that key tools to this aim lay in strengthened community participation and cooperation at all levels. Secretary, ministry of environment, forest and climate change, CK Mishra said that the world day to combat desertification in 2019 will retrospect and celebrate the past years of progress made by India on sustainable land management.
The union minister also launched a flagship project on enhancing capacity on forest landscape restoration (FLR) and Bonn Challenge in India, through a pilot phase of 3.5 years implemented in Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Nagaland and Karnataka. The project will aim to develop and adopt best practices and monitoring protocols for the states and build capacity within the five pilot states on FLR and the Bonn Challenge. This will be eventually scaled up across the country through subsequent phases of the project. The challenge is a global effort to bring 150 million hectares of the world’s deforested and degraded land into restoration by 2020 and 350 million hectares by 2030. At the UNFCC conference of the parties (COP) 2015 in Paris, India also joined the voluntary Bonn Challenge pledge to bring into restoration 13 million hectares of degraded and deforested land by the year 2020 and additional eight million hectares by 2030.
United Nations has three rio conventions namely — United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). Established in 1994, UNCCD is the only legally binding international agreement linking environment and development issues to the land agenda. In 1994, the United Nations General Assembly declared 17 june the “world day to combat desertification and drought” to promote public awareness and the implementation of the UNCCD in the desertification affected countries.
One of the primary functions of the COP is to review reports submitted by the country parties detailing how they are carrying out their commitments. India will take-over the COP presidency from China for two years until the next COP is hosted in 2021.
Over 5,000 representatives from over 197 countries drawn from national, regional and local governments, science and research communities, the private sector, international and non-governmental organisations and all forms of media will address the issue of combating desertification, land degradation and drought during the two-week event.
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
The declining fortunes of the two communist parties, CPI and CPI(M), which started from West Bengal, have been a body blow to the communist movement
Friedrich Engels had said that one of the principal outcomes of the proletarian revolution would be the withering away of the State. In India, post-2019, the State has emerged stronger than ever before and it is the communist parties which are actually withering away. While much of the focus after the recent Lok Sabha election has been on the disastrous performance of the Congress, the real big story is the declining fortunes of the two communist parties in India.
The Left parties had a decent presence in several States in the early decades after independence. The undivided Communist Party of India (CPI) won 16 seats in the first Lok Sabha election in 1951-52. It rose to 29 seats in 1962 and got around nine per cent of the votes polled. After the party split, the CPI and the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-CPI(M) bagged 42 seats in 1967 but their vote share hovered around nine per cent. This trend continued for three decades. The two parties put up their best performance in 2004 when they together secured 53 seats in the Lok Sabha, although their vote share had dropped to around seven per cent. Thereafter, their fortunes crashed. In 2014, the two parties could win just 10 seats and their national vote share dropped to just four per cent. This time around, they are well below the danger mark having secured just five seats and about two per cent of the national vote.
The decline of the two communist parties and their fellow travellers in the Left Front can be traced to the loss of popularity in their strongholds in West Bengal and Tripura and their fluctuating fortunes in Kerala. The Left’s fall is most noticeable in West Bengal where its vote share has crashed from 50.70 per cent and 32 seats in 2004 to 6.28 per cent and zero seats in 2019.
While most political parties around the world, including communist parties, re-invent themselves to stay afloat and win popular support, the CPI and the CPI(M) have stubbornly stuck to the theories and slogans that defined them decades ago. Their ideas about the working class and organised labour and about the capitalist-proletariat binary remain unchanged, even though the world has moved on.
This writer found examples of this during the Lok Sabha poll in West Bengal, where during the road shows, CPI(M) cadres kept chanting “Inquilab Zindabad” while waving their red hammer and sickle flags. Which revolution were they talking about in this day and age when the market economy rules the roost? The best example of how these two parties are completely out of sync with today’s reality is their refusal to acknowledge the advantages accruing to the poorest of the poor through many innovative schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana, the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana and the direct benefit transfer scheme. Mudra is an innovative programme launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to kindle the entrepreneurial spirit among poorer sections of society and to bring about a dramatic shift in their social and economic conditions.
Under the scheme, the Government provides loans to individuals from poorer sections of society to establish their own businesses and pursue entrepreneurship. The idea is to “fund the unfunded.” They get loans ranging from Rs 50,000 to Rs 10 lakh. These small entrepreneurs and businessmen in turn employ five to 10 people to run their enterprise — be it a small eatery, a bakery, a garment or leather-goods-making micro unit or a tea stall. These Mudra beneficiaries can be found all over the country and the programme has the potential to bring about noticeable change in the living conditions of the under-privileged classes. This writer met many beneficiaries during travels in several States recently. Available data on the Mudra scheme is indeed heartening. Women entrepreneurs are the major beneficiaries of Mudra loans across sectors and constitute 70 per cent of those who have taken advantage of this scheme. Early this year, the Government announced that it had disbursed loans amounting to Rs 7.23 lakh crore.
Under the Ujjwala programme, the Government provides free cooking gas connection to families below the poverty line. Thus far, over 70 million families have benefited from it. Another such scheme with far-reaching impact is the aim to build homes for the poor and toilets in every home. Though some of these schemes were initiated by previous Governments, their implementation was sluggish in the absence of motivation and commitment. Delivery of these schemes has picked up pace after Modi became the Prime Minister in 2014.
All these schemes are aimed at ensuring the dignity of women and children, improving their living environment and health and offering them incentives to better the quality of lives. One would have thought that programmes of this kind would be hailed by the communists, but that has not happened. The spokespersons of these two parties have been consistently running down the Mudra Yojana and all other schemes meant exclusively to better the lives of the poorer classes, simply because they were launched by Prime Minister Modi and he is the driving force to ensure their completion within the shortest possible time. The election results show that this kind of negativity has not gone down well with the people.
There are many other factors which have rendered the two communist parties unpopular. The first of these is their approach to secularism. The two parties have moved far away from the Shah Bano days when Somnath Chatterjee, Saifuddin Choudhury and several others took on the Muslim clergy and strongly opposed the Rajiv Gandhi Government’s decision to bring in a law to prevent Muslim women from taking benefit of a civil law and a Supreme Court judgement providing maintenance to divorced women. That was in 1986. However, over the last three decades, the Left has become the standard-bearer of the pseudo-secular brigade, become hostile to the Hindu majority in the country and is pretending as if radical Islam is not an issue at all. The most recent example of its contempt for Hindu sentiment is the way it handled the Sabarimala issue and encouraged individuals to deride Hindus, their customs and way of life. Where will they go from here? Will they do what the British Labour Party did some decades ago and change the way they think and work? If they again turn left, it’s a dead-end. If they turn right, they will cease to be left! Where are they headed? The nation wants to know.
(The writer is an author specialising in democracy studies. Views expressed are personal)
Writer: A Surya Prakash
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Everybody is looking forward to the Budget as the 17th Lok Sabha convenes. The Opposition seems to be in a disarray
As the 17th Lok Sabha has its inaugural session today, it is expected to lay the policy map of the Narendra Modi government with the Union Budget expected to set the tenor of proceedings. This will be the maiden Budget for new Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who has a tough call to make at a time when the economy is sputtering, banks are tight-fisted about lending and there is no room left to be adventurist about reforms. Particularly when GDP growth is slow, no matter what the battle about percentages, and joblessness is a monstrous decelerator. Then there is the expectation of welfarism and populism from a new Government, which has returned on a mammoth verdict and needs to honour the promise of development. There will be challenges of boosting investment while giving tax breaks. And the rosy doles of the vote-on-account this January will be assumed to continue as the Prime Minister has committed to empowering the poor economically with quotas and pivoted all his discourse around improving the lot of the underprivileged. Standing on a cliff, Sitharaman’s Budget will have to be actionable, not one of intent.
Politically speaking, the Lok Sabha will be a one-sided match with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) having the vote of 303 MPs, a humongous chunk where the Opposition bloc hardly has a chance. The Congress can claim to be a very distant second with 52 but it is yet to work out a coherent House strategy. It is still confused about its floor leader what with Rahul Gandhi not quite ready to be assertive about his political role within the party, leave aside being its face. Much has loosened in the mahagathbandhan space, its frontline leaders still smarting under their pathetic electoral performance. And since the alliance of convenience didn’t quite work on the ground, each has drifted away, the quickest being the collapse of the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party (SP-BSP) deal. In fact, they stand sharply divided as ever. Still, in the interest of parliamentary debate, democratic spirit and institutional decorum, the Opposition needs to present a strategic counterweight and frankly, the Congress has to take the lead in coalescing a response during discussion on crucial Bills that are expected to be tabled. The Triple Talaq Bill is the ruling NDA’s priority. In its first tenure, it had failed to get the Bill cleared in the Rajya Sabha as the Opposition opposed the criminality clause. Even after removing that criterion, the government could not table the Bill, owing to continuous disruptions. So the NDA’s floor managers have a tough task in a hostile Rajya Sabha. However, it is hoping that with friendly State governments and its own hopes of an improved tally in some State elections, it should be able to exert some weight in the Upper House by 2020. Which is why it may introduce certain Bills for the record and debate it across sessions. Two Medical Bills, the Indian Medical Council (Amendment Bill), 2019 and the Homoeopathy Central Council (Amendment Bill), 2019, will be reintroduced, too. Given the doctors’ stir, both are aimed at bringing in accountability, transparency and quality in the governance of medical education in the country. However, all eyes will be on indiscipline and disruptions in Parliament, which not only stall necessary business but also tarnish the image of this esteemed institution. Important legislations are held up. Besides, adjournments eat into the valuable Question Hour. According to figures, the 16th Lok Sabha recorded really low working hours. It met for 1,615 hours, 40 per cent lower than all full-term Parliaments. One hopes the 17th Lok Sabha will at least mean business.
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
The ‘special relationship’ between the UK and the US is elusive. Trump’s visit to Britain nailed the optics of an empire that was wilting under the weight of an ‘unequal’ relation
Romance and nostalgia surrounding the grandeur of the British empire in the 19th and 20th century is predicated on “the empire on which the sun never sets.” This pomposity was extended to include emerging America in the mid-19th century to posit the Anglophone domain, as noted by Alexander Campbell in 1852, “To Britain and America, god has granted the possession of the new world; and because the sun never sets upon our religion, our language and our arts…” Subsequently, the two world wars of the 20th century changed the global narrative and the churn of history left the British empire to hold on and cast its equation with the US in a Churchellian expression, “special relationship.” Befittingly, British Prime Minister Theresa May sought “a new special relationship”, while not one to be left out, US President Donald Trump added his own to the lexicon by claiming the bilateral relationship to be, “the highest level of special!” However, the stark reality of the two nations clutching the straws of history was inevitable as Trump made his state visit to the UK as May was in the last week of her notice period.
The usual blusters, clichés and gaffes notwithstanding, the visit nailed the optics of an empire that was wilting under the weight of an “unequal” relationship that besets any relationship with the US President Donald Trump. The quintessential English “correctness” of May helped her mumble over the contentious issues between the two nations, namely, on how to handle Iran, China or even Brexit. Even the ostensibly “nasty” past of the once-American and now the Duchess of Sussex, Meghan Markle, was providentially avoided as she was on maternity leave. Yet, the cracks in the sovereign outlook and intrusions into the domestic affairs of the UK by Trump, had all the hallmarks of a very “Un-English” inelegance and mannerism. From opining on members of the royal family, the mayor of London, Opposition leaders, Brexit negotiations, to even his own preferences for the next incumbent of the 10 Downing Street — Great Britain was made to look rather pedestrian and beholden to its “special” ally.
Undercurrents of suspicion across the Atlantic have simmered for long and even the victory in World War II was marred with private concerns in the UK, over the ruthless negotiations done by the US, to extend crucial support during the war to its “special” ally. Beyond the exacting commercial terms enforced on the post-war UK, the US denied support to its “special” ally on Suez Canal, leading to its humiliating retreat. In 1983, the US invaded Grenada in the Caribbean, then supposedly a member of the British Commonwealth. Even the reciprocal disinterest in both the Vietnam war and later, the Falklands, owing to their individual compulsions militated against the publically postured alliance. The US Secretary of State during the Vietnam War, Dean Rusk, had famously told a British journalist on the cold feet developed by the British Government in contributing military wherewithal: “When the Russians invade Sussex, don’t expect us to come and help you.” Deep in the psyche of the Trans-Atlantic world, only the fear of the “others” in the Cold War era kept the portents of “special relationship” going — but the writing was always on the wall, and with the advent of the businessman-turned-President, the worms came out of the woodwork.
Serendipitously, a 2003 British comedy film, Love Actually, has a role played by Hugh Grant as the Prime Minister of Great Britain, who stands up to the roughshod antics of the visiting US President. In it, the British Prime Minister calls the bluff on the “special relationship” by saying on the podium with the US President by his side, “I love that word relationship. Covers all manners of sins, doesn’t it? I fear that this has become a bad relationship. One that is based on the President taking exactly what he wants and casually ignoring all those things that really matter to Britain. We may be a small country, but we’re a great one too” and then adds for good measure, “A friend who bullies us is no longer a friend. And since bullies only respond to strength, from now onward, I will be prepared to be much stronger. And the President should be prepared for that.”
Unfortunately, in 2019, none of that happened and May stood meekly by the side of the US President as he railed against the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, by calling him a “not good mayor who had done a poor job.” He then added, condescendingly and lordly, that the mayor had criticised the “representative of the US that can do so much good for the UK.” Further, with the British Prime Minister acquiescing, Trump went on to call the head of the Opposition party, Jeremy Corbyn, a “negative force.” Completing the picture of servility was the final comments by May, addressed to both the Mayor of London and Corbyn, about the “greatest alliance” that “ensures our safety and security and the safety and security of others around the world, too.” That May was no Winston Churchill or even Margaret Thatcher was all too clear and visible.
Trump merrily waded into the bitterly divided waters of Brexit with his own opinions on its (mis)handling, while making the protocol exception to meet the divisive figure of Nigel Farage at the US Ambassador’s residence. He reiterated Brexit “will happen and it probably should happen”. A hapless empire was left with a visiting US President telling them about his personal preferences for the next Prime Minister in Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt.
Clearly, the days when a blunt Margaret Thatcher could stand up to the Yankee Republican President, like Ronald Reagan, who while urging her to go slow on Falklands, was told off chillingly by the ‘Iron Lady’: “I didn’t lose some of my best ships and some of my finest lives to leave quietly.” Since then, the sun has indeed firmly set on the empire’s “greatest alliance.”
(The writer, a military veteran, is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry)
Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer
Top publications from across the world took note of the scale of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s re-election victory, with some describing it as part of a global political trend
The “charismatic but polarising” BJP leader’s return to power “mirrored a trend of rightwing populists sweeping to victory, from the united States to Brazil to Italy, often by promoting a tough security stance and protecting trade policies”, the Associated Press reported. The outcome of India’s marathon Lok Sabha election, the seventeenth in its history, was clear well before officials began declaring results on Thursday. Trends confirmed what multiple exit polls had predicted: not only would the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win, but it would do so by a landslide. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which leads the NDA, has once again won a parliamentary majority on its own — it now has over 300 seats in a 545-strong Lok Sabha with two nominated members. Its leader was helped by a “mix of brawny Hindu nationalism, populist humility and grand gestures for the poor”, the New york Times reported.
The Guardian said in an editorial that Modi’s triumph would “see India’s soul lost to a dark politics one that views almost all 195 million Indian Muslims
as second-class citizens”.
Expectations that Modi would boost the economy and generate employment after his famous win in 2014 “remain unfulfilled,” said the Washington Post. This time, the newspaper added, “Modi instead pushed a message of nationalist pride, telling voters that he was the only candidate who would safeguard the country’s security and fight terrorism”. National security became an election issue after a military escalation between India and Pakistan brought the two nations to the brink of war in February. That happened days after a Pakistanbased terrorist group killed dozens of Indian paramilitary soldiers in a suicide bombing in Kashmir.
An editorial in Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper said the months “leading up to Mr Modi’s campaign were marked by anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan rants”; it accused India of “going so far as to escalate tensions by conducting airstrikes inside Pakistan in order to whip up nationalist sentiment”. The newspaper said “the focus must turn to a practical way forward for sustainable peace in the subcontinent. This is possible solely through an unwavering commitment to dialogue, an offer Pakistan has extended — and India has rebuffed — consistently.”
India’s position on dialogue with Islamabad is that talks and terrorism cannot go together. While reporting on Prime Minister Modi’s victory, foreign publications did not lose sight of the other big story — the Congress’s decline. under Rahul Gandhi, the party that once dominated Indian politics now has just 52 seats in the Lok Sabha. It had won even fewer seats in 2014.
India’s Lok Sabha election was held between April 11 and May 19, and over two-thirds of around 900 million eligible voters took part. “The elections, so daunting an exercise they are phased over six weeks, were a testimony to the vibrancy of the world’s largest democracy just 72 years since India won independence from British colonial rule,” the Associated Press said.
Surprisingly the anti-Modi sting in the media was missing as for many outlets it was not an unexpected outcome of the elections. There was also no use in regular reporting of threat to Muslims and minorities by Modi or his BJP. However, analysis and editorial did highlight such threats.
The element of in-depth coverage of elections followed by deep analysis was missing as almost all papers and other media outlets were dependent on news agencies in absence of dedicated reporting teams in India.
Dawn in a front page report wrote that Modi won an emphatic mandate in general elections that saw him pitching national security as an invincible talisman. “In projecting himself as the choreographer of air raids on Balakot across the border, Mr Modi severely bruised a fractious and unequal opposition, according to the paper.
The next government in New Delhi will determine the course of Indo-Pakistan ties, which were pushed to a new low after the Pulwama terror attack. During the campaign, Modi harped on national security issues, including a counter-terror operation carried out at the biggest JeM training camp in Pakistan’s Balakot.
Dawn wrote a scathing editorial about the success of Modi, terming it a victory of communal politics. “For the world’s largest democracy, the writing is on the wall: communal politics in India has triumphed in an age that will define the future of the republic,” it wrote.
It wrote that the results are astounding, and depressingly show that religious hatred and sectarian politics can be exploited to lure voters.
“Notably, the months leading up to Mr Modi’s campaign were marked by anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan rants, with India going so far as to escalate tensions by conducting air strikes inside
Pakistan in order to whip up nationalist sentiment, it opined.
The News International termed Modi’s win as “dramatic” but added that it only was reflection of a global trend. “His re-election reinforces a global trend of right-wing populists sweeping to victory, from the united States to Brazil and Italy, often after adopting harsh positions on protectionism, immigration and defence,” according to the report. However, an analytical article by Aijaz Zaka Syed appeared in The News International credited Modi for the victory of the BJP.
“If the BJP and Modi have won this election, they perhaps deserved to win. They put in a great deal of hard work and have had the hunger to win,” he wrote. He also said that Modi could be responsible for many sins but the opposition failed to expose his failures.
“It failed to offer a positive, redeeming narrative to counter the BJP’s campaign of hate and toxicity. other than the single point agenda of getting rid of Narendra Modi, the opposition did not offer anything else. The Congress’ promise of nyay’ (justice for all) came very late in the day and was simply lost in the BJP’s propaganda blitz screaming about its various schemes and initiatives, he wrote.
The Express Tribune’s main story about Indian election results was not much different from the The News International as both had used contents of same news agencies. The Nation in the main story highlighted that Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan congratulated Modi on his victory.
The electronic media was also not overtly involved in the results coverage and seldom stopped routine reporting to give breaking news and alerts about the Indian election results. However, some of the evening TV talk shows pondered over the questions regarding impact of Modi on India’s relations with Pakistan.
Special advisor to Prime Minister on information Firdous Ashiq Awan told Hamid Mir of Geo news in his talk show on Thursday night that victory of Modi is neither a bad news for Pakistan nor a good news.
“We want to engage with India and resolve all difference through talks. For us there is no difference who is leading India, she said.
Foreign office spokesman Mohammad Faisal to a question about elections in India said Pakistan consistently maintained that the only way to resolve all outstanding issues, including the issue of Jammu and Kashmir is through implementation of uNSC resolutions. Dialogue is hence essential. We remain committed to the same, irrespective of whoever forms the new Government in India, he said.
Inputs from Anshuman Dogra, Hemant Sharma from FCC – New Delhi.
As India phases out old aircraft to accommodate state-of-the-art jets, it is also essential for it to maintain an accident-free record and ensure fleet safety
Just about a month ago, an Indian Air Force (IAF) AN-32 military transport aircraft had overshot the runway at the Mumbai international airport and come to a halt perilously close to the boundary wall along the Western Express highway. Reportedly, over 50 flights were affected due to this incident. More recently, another AN-32 aircraft carrying 13 people on board went missing in Arunachal Pradesh’s West Siang district. The wreckage of the aircraft was found eight days later after intense search operations.
It is understood that the Emergency Locator Transmitter (ELT), which sends a distress signal in case of a 20G (20-times gravitational force) impact, was non-functional. Well, what else did not work? With over 16 IAF aircraft lost during the last one year, one needs to ask some tough questions.
It is quite a paradoxical situation that our scientists are now world leaders in satellite technology and have established many a record but are unable to rectify some of the glitches which tend to recur in our IAF aircraft. One important aspect appears to be overlooked, that of the safety of the ageing fleet. Last year, in a written reply to a question (March 2018), former Minister of State for Defence, Subhash Bhamre, had informed the Lok Sabha that 31 aircraft of the IAF had been involved in accidents during the last four years. It was said that 10 accidents had taken place in 2014-15, six in 2015-16 and 10 in 2016-17, while five were reported in 2017-18. These accounted for almost two squadrons of aircraft.
Since this reply in the Parliament, another 18 aircraft have been lost. These account for almost two squadrons. In order to get the full impact of these figures, one should read this together with the statement made by Air Chief Marshal Birender Singh Dhanoa a few months ago, where he said that the depleted Air Force had only 31 squadrons as against a sanction of 42 squadrons (16-18 planes each) and that India faced a grave threat. Even if the Air Force gets the sanctioned 42 squadrons, India’s strength would be “less than the combined strength of our two adversaries — China and Pakistan”, he said.
In case one takes into account the IAF losses during the last 10 years, almost four squadrons or even more may have been lost which is not a small number. In a way, had we cut down such losses, the country would have been in a much better position to face any threats. As the IAF had the highest number of peace-time crashes in the world quite some time ago, a committee chaired by former IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal Denis Anthony Lafontaine, a fighter pilot who played a key role in 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pak wars, had gone into various aspects and had come to the conclusion that among the main factors for crashes were pilot error (42 per cent), bird hits (seven per cent) and maintenance and technical issues (44 per cent).
A very high rate of pilot error was blamed on the absence of an Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT). It was said that pilots, for want of an AJT, were trained on slower aircraft and got suddenly exposed to a Mach-2 situation, leading to accidents. In any case, AN-32 is a much slower transport aircraft.
Losses have continued even after the induction of the AJT. During the last four years, that is after the induction of AJT, almost two squadrons may have been lost. As the number of crashes has not come down significantly, there must be some other contributing factors that need to be addressed.
Earlier, in the late 1990s, the situation was even more serious as the frequency of crashes had assumed alarming proportions. Eighty-one aircraft, all MIGs and its variants, had crashed during a five-year period, killing 34 pilots. Admittedly, there was a spare parts crunch at that time as some of these had been procured from the Central Asian and East European countries, which were not in a position to maintain that level of forces and were reducing their inventory. These spare parts were not of the same quality as originals.
So also was the case with lubricants and greases, whose shelf-life had expired. On the other hand, one of the former Air Chiefs was on the record, having stated that there was a serious design flaw. While this debate was heating up, the Russian manufacturers blamed us for poor maintenance of the aircraft and making changes in the original designs.
Be that as it may, the fact remains that we have lost a few hundred aircraft and valued pilots due to peace-time crashes, seriously depleting our resources and impinging on our fighting capability. Unfortunately, the same trend continues. Losing seven of our best possessions, including Su-30MKI, which is a fourth generation aircraft being manufactured at Nasik, does not augur well. Most of these crashes of the Rs 400 crore planes were attributed to technical snags connected with the wire-guided system.
It has been often observed that in our country, items in which foreign manufacturers of defence equipment are interested to happen to be the slowest to develop. None perhaps would be interested to sell us satellites or their launchers and look at the phenomenal progress made by us in the expertise in rocket and missile technology.
On the other hand, the development of battle tanks and aircraft has taken a very long time. Considering that even in the indigenously manufactured aircraft, a significant proportion in critical areas still gets imported, their vulnerability to cyber attacks would also need to be taken into account with appropriate countermeasures in place. Now that we are in the process of acquiring state-of-the-art and latest aircraft, it is up to our technicians, maintenance crews and pilot trainers to ensure that we have an accident-free record. After all, every accident prevented only adds to the squadron strength of our Air Force.
(The writer is a retired Delhi Police Commissioner and former Uttarakhand Governor)
Writer: KK Paul
Courtesy: The Pioneer
Heat waves are not uncommon but increasingly, they are being attributed to global warming and climate change. The world lost more than five lakh people to such events in the last 20 years along with an economic loss of $3.47 trillion
As early as December 2018, it was predicted that the summer of 2019 would deliver punishing heat wave conditions and going by the spiralling temperatures currently being experienced across the country, the prophecy seems to be coming true. The national capital Delhi was left scalded as it experienced temperatures touching 48 degree centigrade as recently as June 10 — the hottest June day for the capital ever. Dholpur in nearby Rajasthan was worse at 51°C. It was the fourth time that the temperature crossed 50°C in June in the State, according to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
A combined effect of climate change and an evolving El-Nino is transforming this year to be the hottest ever and the trend is not gladdening. Four of the warmest years ever recorded were the last four years. The year 2018 started off with a moderate La-Nina phenomenon, which generally has a cooling effect on global climate, but is going to end up being the fourth warmest year after 2015, 2016 and 2017.
This clearly shows a warming trend. In fact, the 20 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 22 years. This trend also sits in perfectly with the emission rates of Green House Gases (GHGs) which were at a record high by end of 2018, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. Scientists at Pennsylvania State University in the US have also confirmed that a combination of human-caused warming and a natural upswing in temperatures increase the odds that any new El-Nino year would turn out to be the warmest ever.
Additionally, many weather forecasters around the world, including the IMD, had predicted that the development of an El-Nino phenomenon by the end of 2018 would make things unbearably hot in 2019. This pattern has already taken over. It is evident in the form of abnormally hot winter seasons for the past three to four years in a row. Continuing at this rate, the next year will be even worse and the threat to health and well-being, especially of the young and the elderly, will be devastating.
The development of these events has been evident since the later half of the last year. On November 22, 2018, the IMD observed that moderate El-Nino Southern Oscillation conditions were prevalent in the equatorial Pacific Ocean region and the El-Nino is likely to develop in the next two months.
El Nino, which is the unusual warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, further adds to the already warming temperatures. Following on this, on December 3, 2018, the IMD again stated that equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were above average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
The climate prediction centre at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that there is an 80 per cent chance that a full-fledged El-Nino has already begun and will last till the end of February 2019. The impact of El-Nino on global weather has also got more intense on the past few occasions as a result of climate change, according to a research paper published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. Another major indicator of the warming trend due to climate change is Ocean Heat Content (OHC). The year 2018 recorded a new high in terms of OHC since observations began in 1940.
There is more heat stored in the Earth’s oceans today than at any time in the last 78 years. When GHGs trap heat in the atmosphere, some of it gets converted into surface temperature but 90 per cent of it gets assimilated into the oceans. Therefore, OHC is a much better indicator of climate change than surface temperatures. The last El-Nino event that ended in 2016 had lasted for two years and caused heat waves all around the world, including India. The heat waves in 2015 and 2016 killed more than 2,500 people in India and have been attributed to climate change, which suggests that El-Nino was intensified by global warming.
Heat waves are not uncommon but increasingly, these extreme weather conditions are being attributed to global warming and climate change. The heat waves of 2015 and 2016 especially have been attributed to global warming, particularly considering a combination of temperature and humidity. The severe El-Nino conditions are also causing massive coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef and droughts in parts of Africa, South East Asia and South America. Australia, too, is witnessing its worst drought in living memory. In regions like the New South Wales, the drought is the worst in 400 years. One of the impacts of warmer surface temperatures and more ocean heat will be greater occurrence of extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, heat waves, floods and droughts. In 2018, there were 70 tropical cyclones all over the world, while the long-term average was 53.
The world lost more than five lakh people to such events in the last 20 years along with an economic loss of $3.47 trillion, according to the latest Global climate risk index 2019 report. The year 2019 seems to be having more than its share of extreme weather events in the first three months. One can only hope for the best for the rest of the year.
(The writer is an environmental journalist)
Writer: Kota Sriraj
Courtesy: Pioneer
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