The reverse migration of daily wagers has made a mockery of the Prime Minister’s call for a 21-day lockdown. What prompted this humanitarian crisis?
There is a strange coincidence, if not synergy, between some Twitter handles calling for the national Government to deal with the Coronavirus health crisis, even though the Union Government enjoys a staggering majority, and the sudden exodus of thousands of casual labour from jhuggi clusters across Delhi on Saturday, March 28. This made a mockery of the 21-day national lockdown announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 24 and potentially exposed these fleeing families and those they would meet at the end of their journey to the virus, should any among them be silent carriers of the deadly disease.
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal could have used the Disaster Management Act, 2005 to rein in migrants from the beginning. The Lt Governor and collectors of the capital’s 11 districts are also culpable for not realising the developments brewing under their watch and total inaction when exodus began from their respective areas. A new Lt Governor will revive confidence in the city’s shaken populace.
The Prime Minister, however, took control of the situation with Sunday morning’s Mann ki Baat, where he warned that those violating the lockdown are “playing with their own lives” and that a complete lockdown was the only solution in the global pandemic. He regretted the discrimination against medical personnel, who are risking their lives to save others at this critical time and applauded all those providing essential services.
Simultaneously, the National Executive Committee of the Disaster Management Act, 2005, under Section 10(2)(1) directed all State and Union Territory Governments to keep migrants, who left their current domiciles to return to their home towns, in mandatory quarantine at the nearest shelter for 14 days as per standard health protocol. It asked landlords not to press for rents for a month. It was later that Kejriwal appealed to all migrant labourers to remain in their current domiciles and not risk catching the infection or spreading it further. He promised to ensure rations and began thermal temperature checks at the bus stand but Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Kapil Mishra said the buses must stop plying and people must be given rations at home.
Such mass movement of people from all parts of the city requires meticulous planning and execution. The Centre must fix responsibility for the DTC ferrying people all over the city when the service is restricted to staff of essential services at fixed hours in the morning and evening. By the time thousands of people had collected at the Anand Vihar bus stand, it was too late to send them back to their clusters. Many had already been dumped at the Uttar Pradesh border, catching Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath by surprise.
However, he had to order 1,000 buses to pick up the homeward-bound and ordered a 14-day quarantine of about one lakh people who had entered the State in the last three days. This means some began coming from Thursday.
All district magistrates were given details (names, addresses and phone numbers) of the new arrivals and 60,000 panchayats were asked to share responsibility for the quarantine. Uttar Pradesh has also sent nodal officers to 12 States to help people from Uttar Pradesh, who have business or employment there.
In Delhi, the national and international media had a field day; usual suspects interviewed poor and hungry people walking home in the absence of transport, taking care not to ask why they were moving around during a nationwide lockdown. Al Jazeera spoke with painter Ram Bhajan Nisar, who set off on foot with his wife, two children and 11 others from Delhi to Gorakhpur village on the Nepal border, 650 km away. He admitted that an overnight bus took the family from the border overpass area on Saturday up to Shahjahanpur district, Uttar Pradesh. From there, they got a ride on a tractor trolley, ate at a gurdwara and hoped to get Government transport to reach their village. Hundreds more have been spotted walking towards Ghaziabad and Gautam Buddha Nagar, adjoining Delhi.
The Chief Ministers of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have expressed anger at the Delhi Government for facilitating this huge movement of people across the country in defiance of the nationwide lockdown and without any warning to the respective States. Clearly, at this time, there is no need for competitive activism or politics but a coordination between States to save lives.
The first objective would be to disrupt the Bihar administration with an abrupt invasion of thousands of families, who would immediately need food, shelter and Coronavirus screening, even quarantine. Lack of preparedness on this score would embarrass the Nitish Kumar Government in an election year.
If we destroy the efficacy of the 21-day lockdown, the Prime Minister would have no choice but to extend it further. Failure to resume economic activity and get factories, shops, offices and construction activities going as soon as possible will give the economy a jolt from which it would struggle to recover. It is pertinent that the Centre had announced a slew of incentives for the small and medium manufacturing sector, just prior to the lockdown. This sector is a large source of employment and needs to get on its feet fast.
Can there be any other reason for nudging labour from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to quit the capital? It is difficult to say but some have observed that in all the turmoil, the alleged illegal migrants from Bangladesh — both Bangladeshis and Rohingyas — stayed put. They did not express anxiety about jobs or food and shelter during the crisis; nor did they have an urge to go home. Some kind Samaritans were taking care of them.
Whatever the reasons for the reverse migration, it has increased the urgency for the National Population Register (NPR) in order to track migration and job opportunities across the country, which is vital for future economic planning.
(Writer: Sandhya Jain; Courtesy: The Pioneer)
Home grown test-kits and geo-fencing of COVID-19 suspects show why we need to prioritise the sciences, R&D
If indeed, as Plato famously said, “Necessity is the mother of invention,” then the Coronavirus pandemic has certainly brought out Indian innovation at its best. To begin with, a team at IIT-Bombay and professional and experienced members among the alumni recently developed an app for mobiles called ‘Corontine,’ which would help the authorities keep track of potential or suspected asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 if they were to leave their quarantine zone. This has been done by creating what the techies are calling a “geo-fence” to keep tabs on people who had travelled abroad since February-end and had been advised home quarantine for a minimum of 14 days to see if they develop symptoms. The self-quarantine was not just for those who travelled abroad, but also for the people they came in contact with after returning, including friends and relatives. Asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 have been a cause of concern for the medical community globally and in India, too. Particularly as there have been several cases in the country where people escaped quarantine and mingled with the masses, irresponsibly increasing the potential risk of community transmission of the contagion. Then there was Minal Bhosale, a virologist from Pune, who with the help of her team created the first Indian testing kit for the virus, just a day before she gave birth to a baby girl. The test was delivered in a record time of just six weeks and the first batch has now hit the markets, making for a quick and affordable option. The engineering teams based at the automaker Mahindra and Mahindra’s Mumbai and Nashik manufacturing plants developed an Ambu bag ventilator in 48 hours that will cost just Rs 7,500. This indigenously-developed bag valve mask is a self-inflating device that is typically used to help patients with breathing problems and will be an answer to India’s worry over the shortage of ventilators for Coronavirus patients. Now, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is trying to develop “multi-patient ventilators”, wherein several patients can be supported by a single ventilator to meet the huge demand if the Covid-19 outbreak goes out of control as India has only 40,000 ventilators as of now.
This goes to show that when push comes to a shove, in times of crisis, the Indian spirit and mind kick into overdrive to find answers to questions which puzzle the world even today. All around the world, Indian minds are revered and are often even found at high-ranking positions in the fields of science and discovery at the most prestigious institutions. This also points out to the lack of research and innovation facilities and incentives at home. The most brilliant of Indian minds usually flourish the most once they have been recognised by foreign institutions, which value their ideas more than the Indian ones. It is no mystery that the Indian education system does not leave much breathing room for innovation and critical thinking. The education system needs to be overhauled to promote critical thinking and innovation in various fields instead of the basic level of education and knowledge, which is forced upon students. In the absence of a higher education system that is application-based and which encourages breakthrough ventures, we will always remain plagued by mediocrity. The onset of the Coronavirus is something which brought out the best in our scientists and innovators at home. With one of the youngest populations of the world, if nurtured correctly and effectively, we understandably have the potential to become a superpower but the need of the hour is innovation in the field of science. The Government needs to back the sciences to encourage critical thinking and promote research as very few of our premier educational institutions take part or are quoted in global studies. As the recent crisis has shown, what we consign as social sectors in national budgets, namely health and education, need to be accorded a much higher priority. At the same time, amid all talk of immunity, our Ayurvedic sciences can be revived to inculcate a holistic health culture. India has overcome problems before and it surely will do so again when everyone works together and puts human life above everything else. In the end, the battle is ours to fight; nobody else will do it for us.
Amid the prevailing lockdown, the afflictions of migrant labourers are being compounded during their long trek home and some are being beaten up and tortured by police
If the pitiful sight of a father walking with his ten-month-old infant on his shoulders, for over 100 km in this heat to reach his hometown, does not shake us, then it raises serious doubts about humanity and its future. If the death of a 38-year-old worker after walking for 200 km and the predicament of tens of thousands of jobless, shelterless, hungry, thirsty and helpless migrant workers yearning to return to their villages amid the rapidly proliferating Coronavirus outbreak and the resultant countrywide lockdown, does not receive our empathy, then humanity’s opportunism is well-established.
Amid the prevailing threat of the contagion, the afflictions of the voiceless poor are being compounded and some are being beaten up, tortured, made to do sit-ups, locked up in overcrowded makeshift prisons, while others are being punished through other “innovative” ideas of violence, by those who are supposed to protect the people, the police.
If the authorities have become thankless to the extent that they have forgotten the contribution of informal workers towards the growth of the economy, here are some insights: India’s labour market is dominated by informal employment and constitutes 90 per cent of the total workers involved. Out of the total 47.1 crore workers in 2017-18, the number of informal workers stood at 42.4 crore. They contributed almost 50 per cent to the national income as per a Confederation of Indian Industries’ report.
The rise in urbanisation is a consequence of demographic explosion and poverty-induced rural-urban migration. As per the estimates of the Economic Survey, 2017, the magnitude of inter-State migration in India was 90 lakh annually between 2011 to 2016, while total internal migration was about 13.9 core. If this trend continues, the total number of migrants would be around 21.1 crore by 2020-end. Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar are the two biggest source States, closely followed by Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, West Bengal and the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. On the other hand, the main destination States are Delhi, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.
Most workers had migrated in search of livelihood and were involved in low-paying informal work in urban destinations in sectors such as construction, hospitality, textiles, manufacturing, transportation, services and domestic work. Lacking any social or income security, they are not only exploited, ignored and disrespected by their employers but also by the political class, as they hardly translate into votes. With their livelihood threatened by the lockdown and future uncertainties, no wonder they are forced to tread the long road to their hometowns and villages on foot.
At this moment of crisis, coupled with their enforced alienation from the cities, they might not even know if they are also Coronavirus vectors. It can only be hoped that amid the thousands walking alone or with families, children or lining up at shelters and bus stations, with no practical scope for social distancing, there is no one in the crowd who is infected. If it is otherwise, India would become the new epicentre of the outbreak in no time at all, thanks to our inept healthcare system and infrastructure.
Add to this forced exodus the fact that the Deen Dayal Antyodaya Yojana-(DAY-NULM), which could come to the rescue of these workers, suffers from several inherent challenges. For instance, for the last 18 months the Government has been mulling over the idea of outsourcing the upkeep of the livelihood mission to corporates and philanthropic institutions. This implicit failure of the Government that led to the generation of such an idea is further amplified by hiring big private consultants as project monitoring units, having a “corporate-style target achievement attitude.” Further, the inconsiderate approach of the authorities during times of economic slowdown, when the migrant workers are the hardest hit, is evident from the meagre increase in the budgetary allocation for DAY-NULM vis-à-vis the flagship schemes of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA). It was Rs 750 crore (in 2019-20) and was raised by only six per cent to Rs 795 crore in 2020-21. The deep-seated contentions in DAY-NULM do not stop here. Several private players and NGOs have been roped in to carry out different implementation functions for which they have tendered huge sums of money. The irony is that these agencies are bearing the brunt of corruption in the bureaucratic system leading to deferred payments for months and years even after fulfilling their work assignments punctually. The complacency in the approach of the various projects sanctioned under DDU-NULM has remained without any independent third-party monitoring and evaluation.
Given that the Government did its best to arrange special flights across the globe to bring back well-heeled citizens, it is unfortunate that it has turned a blind eye to the plight of the migrant workers. This only represents the deep-rooted systemic contempt and neglect of the vulnerable and the poor.
Though a delayed announcement, there is no denying that the nationwide lockdown is the need of the hour. However, the decision should have been accompanied with a well-crafted draft strategy for each and every section of this diverse country. Unfortunately, as time unfolded, there was no such strategy. However, while ordering everyone to stay at home during the lockdown period, the homeless and those who would be rendered homeless by the shutting down of their sources of employment, seem to have been forgotten.
As the country is bracing for an economic bloodbath with loss of millions of jobs and scramble for food and water for survival and the impending scorching summer, these migrant workers would be the hardest hit once the infection starts to spread among them. The poverty and suffering of all those dependent upon them will increase due to the lack of a source of income. Plus, home isolation will be difficult to attain as large families live in small, closely-packed houses in areas of high population density. This will add to the burden of the already inept public healthcare system and ultimately impact the private and the public sector and hit their bottomlines and profits.
Some of the immediate steps for containing the spread of Coronavirus and saving the lives of informal workers are as follows. The administration must work with various State Governments to arrange district-wise special sanitised trains and buses to send the workers to their respective homes. These means of transport must be equipped with non-perishable food items and water for the passengers.
A pre-boarding health check-up must be done and those showing any COVID-19 symptoms must be prohibited from travelling and referred to the nearest Government hospital.
If the transport cannot be organised, decent accommodation with food, water and sanitation must be arranged. The hotels, guest houses, stadiums, expo centres and so on must be made available. At present, nobody is using them anyways.
Devise and implement an immediate monetary compensation plan through cash and direct incentives for the circular and seasonal migrant workers who have lost their jobs. This must be done on an urgent basis by at least tripling the budgetary allocation of DDU-NULM and immediate transfers. Expand the DDU-NULM component of Shelter for Urban Homeless (SUH) to meet the decent space and shelter requirements along with catering to the shelter needs of women, children, the elderly, persons with disabilities; community kitchens; medical help; in-kind assistance through public distribution systems, water and toilets. This must be developed with service-level benchmarking standards to combat pandemics like COVID-19. This is not a daunting task and only requires passion and keenness of the authorities.
In light of the worsening situation due to COVID-19, information and communication technology (ICT) and research and data analytics must be harnessed and made to work in tandem with the Government on a war footing to ensure that comprehensive efforts being undertaken to test, trace, treat and combat the pandemic reach all sections of society, including the vulnerable and poor migrant workers. This approach will go a long way in ushering in BR Ambedkar’s egalitarian ethos in the country, upon which the Constitution of India rests.
To conclude, as the predictability of life is increasingly being compromised, the virtuous unity of a decisive leadership, mass cooperation and mutual trust will win the fight against the Coronavirus and flatten the curve in India. It is high time that educated Indians, those at the helm of the Government, the private sector and civil society organisations show some sensitivity and generosity and arrange for a safe transit and compulsory 14-day quarantine of migrant labourers in their respective States. Testing times like these and the brewing humanitarian crisis will either solidify the trust of the people in the Government or establish the narrative that the latter exists not for them but just to use them.
(Writer: Simi Mehta / balwant mehta / Arjun Kumar; Courtesy: The Pioneer)
The coming together of all 10 Asean heads as guests of honour for the republic Day parade signals how regional powers like India have evolved to play a vital role in modern international architecture.
Regional organisations are increasingly becoming a vital feature of modern international architecture. The Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean), which completed its golden jubilee recently in 2017, is a regional grouping of 10 separate nation-states – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. It was formed by five countries, which later extended to 10 members.
Asean also shares wide ranging partnerships with various other regional organizations and countries, such as India, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and United States. It is the most institutionalized regional association in Asia and a classic example of successful regional multilateralism. Most importantly, it has not remained a mere talk shop, but has embraced economic integration and has, thereby, slowly transformed a once-impoverished Asean region with some war-torn countries into a dynamic economic power house.
The combined Asean Gross Domestic Product rose from $95 billion in 1970 to $2.55 trillion in 2016 and is expected to reach $6.4 trillion by 2027. If it were a single entity, Asean would be ranked as the sixth largest economy in the world just behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, and the UK. France is also at about the same position. Asean is projected to emerge as the fourth largest economy in the world by 2050, with some describing it as the growth engine of the world.
Asean also shares wide ranging partnerships with various other regional organizations and countries, such as India, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and United States. It is the most institutionalized regional association in Asia and a classic example of successful regional multilateralism.
All the first five Asean countries — Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore — which once suffered varying degrees of internal communist insurgencies, managed to surpass them. Asean’s success has resulted in the fundamental transformation of geopolitics and geoeconomics in Southeast Asia. Its diplomatic weight bears footprints not only in South- east Asia and East Asia, but also in the broader Indo-Pacific region and in the global arena.
India-Asean partnership: India and Asean share geographical proximity and a robust people-to-people relation- ship which is deeply rooted in history and culture. on seeing deep cultural imprints, Rabindranath Tagore, during his visit to Indonesia lamented, “I see India everywhere, but I do not recognize it.” Even today, in Indonesia’s capital Jakarta, statues placed at major traffic intersections depict figures from the ramayana and the Mahabharata. Jeferysng, a former diplomat based in Bangkok and Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, in their jointly authored book, The ASEAN Miracle: A Catalyst for Peace, observe, “Many ordinary Southeast Asians are well acquainted with figures from, say, the ramayana and Mahabharata. Yet, they would be surprised to learn that these figures, which they consider to be part of their heritage, come from India.”
Perhaps no other country can match India’s long historical links with Southeast Asia. Ancient maritime trade routes had linked the Kalingas, Pallavas and the Cholas to Southeast Asia.
Perhaps no other country can match India’s long historical links with South- east Asia. Ancient maritime trade routes had linked the Kalingas, Pallavas and the Cholas to Southeast Asia. Barring Vietnam and the Philippines, all other eight Asean countries share some sort of cultural roots in or exchanges with the Indian civilisation.
India’s Look East Policy, articulated during the Government of PV Narasimha Rao, has been re-phrased and energized as ‘Act East Policy’ by the incumbent Government and its being in full gear is visible from the republic Day invite to all Asean leaders. That India-Asean partnership is on the upward trajectory is evident from the fact that the partnership had graduated from Sectoral Dialogue Partnership in 1992 to Full Dialogue Partnership in 1996 to Summit Level Partnership in 2002 and then to Strategic Partnership in 2012. Asean is home to about seven million Indian diasporas. All Asean countries are among the list of countries to which India’s e-visa facility is available. India has set-up Asean-India Centre (AIC) in New Delhi in 2013 and a separate Asean diplomatic mission in Jakarta in 2015 in order to smoothly and speedily facilitate India’s engagements with Asean. Currently, 30 different dialogue mechanisms, focusing on a range of sectors are operational.
Mutually beneficial engagement: India-Asean relations are mutually advantageous and beneficial on economic, cultural and strategic fronts. India-Asean economic ties are gradually deepening. Statistics of 2016 show, Asean was India’s fourth largest trading partner, accounting for 10 percent of India’s total trade, whereas India was Asean’s seventh largest trading partner. India’s production linkages with Asean countries, especially with Malaysia in electronics, with Thailand in automobiles, with Singapore in digital networks, are strengthening. There is rapid growth in India’s textile trade with Vietnam.
India’s mostly service oriented economy has got potential to compliment the mostly manufacturing-based economy of Asean. India is a member of Asean led regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which when implemented, is likely to cover 40 per cent of the world’s population, 40 per cent of world trade and 33 per cent of global GDP. The Government of the State of Andhra Pradesh has availed support from Singapore in designing master plan of its upcoming new capital Amaravati and is also drawing collaboration with it for infrastructure development in its new capital city.
North-East India is looked at by some as being at the frontier of India at a remote corner. But if South Asia and Southeast Asia are taken as a continuum, which is a geographical reality, then North-East India is right at the middle of it. India needs to tap this advantage to its full potential. Whereas over three million Indian tourists go to Asean countries every year, only about seven lakhs tourists from Asean come to India.
China and Japan are more preferred tourist destinations for Asean people. With improved connectivity, geared up infrastructure, enhanced awareness, North-East India, with its charming tourist destinations, should be able to attract greater number of tourists from Asean countries. Potential for land based international connectivity is the highest in North-East. Borders must be made vibrant with land ports and North-East must be evolved as a hub of healthcare and education facilities be- sides tourism.
Both India and Asean are rich with diversity and nurture a culture of tolerance and co-existence. Ecosystem of peace provided by Asean and its live illustration of the culture of co-existence may hopefully help moderate the aggressive impulses of China, which has got economic interests in Asean. India and Asean collaboration would be promising in securing trade routes, ensuring freedom of navigation and sustaining a rule-based order in the In- do-Pacific region in particular, which is vital for economic and security interests all stakeholders.
Republic Day invite to Asean: India has invited all heads of states of all 10 Asean countries to take part as chief guests in upcoming republic Day parade on January 26. Except in 1956, 1968 and 1974, when India had two republic Day guests, in all other years since 1950, there was only one chief guest each year. Hosting 10 heads of states as Chief Guests on republic Day parade this year is a unique symbolic gesture, underlining the importance India attaches to further strengthening friendly relations with all Asean countries. New Delhi will also host an Asean-India commemorative summit on January 25, which marks the silver jubilee of the establishment of dialogue partnership between India and Asean. India-Asean partnership can play a vital role in shaping 21ST century as the Asian century.
(The writer is an advocate & Assistant Editor, India Foundation Journal. Views expressed are personal)
If COVID-19 does stall/delay Chinese ‘aid’ to Pakistan, which is heavily dependent on it, the latter could be saddled with incomplete projects and unsustainable interest payments
As the inevitability and magnitude of the impact COVID-19 would have on global economies sinks in, with estimates worsening day by day, there is no denying the fact that those economies substantially dependent on China will be poised precariously. The traditional Chinese Sinosphere stratagem had been to bankroll, financially and diplomatically, desperate regimes with the help of readily available, uncomplicated and “non-judgmental” Chinese largesse. The dragon leveraged its treasury to systematically ensnare alienated regimes in Pyongyang, Islamabad and Tehran among others to even include financially gasping countries in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, right across to Polynesian Islands, all under its tutelage.
The Chinese economic juggernaut funded its hegemonic instincts and Beijing rapidly connected the dots with “win-win” infrastructural projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), supporting inter-linkages like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). For this purpose, it even used the ports around the String of Pearls, which vassalised nations and made them directly susceptible to Chinese whims as also fate.
Pakistan is among the most hinged nations within the Sinosphere, which is poised to feel the direct squeeze of COVID-19. China will inevitably recalibrate its priorities and focus on protecting itself from immediate damage before being concerned about others. Extreme paranoia about managing the expectations of its 1.4 billion population, to avoid a USSR-like implosion, haunts the regime. Such are the insecurities faced by the single-party Government over there. China deploys a combination of fear, opportunities, populism and nationalism to willfully or unwilfully get its populace to accept one-party rule. The bargaining assurance is continuous societal progression of the Chinese masses and their lifestyle.
Undeniable progress on various socio-economic parameters has allowed that bargain between the regime and the Chinese people to maintain the status quo. Now, this economic miracle runs the real risk of a very hard landing as the entire Chinese ecosystem goes into a COVID-19 “containment mode,” which will necessitate a pullback from internationalist priorities. Top Chinese priority would now be on a domestic stimulus package that entails a slew of Government-led spending, investments, subsidies and all sorts of deliberate financial pumping that will automatically shrink budgets for external endeavours, at least temporarily.
Meanwhile, the Pakistani economy is on a ventilator mode. It has partaken a record 22nd bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) besides the many “aid packages” from China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the conditionalities of the IMF’s $6 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) will be subject to unpopular economic reforms and would be doled out only in tranches, the Chinese have been the single most generous source, donating $4.6 billion in the form of deposits and commercial loans.
Ties with the US are circumspect. Though the Taliban peace deal may force optics of a thaw but hopes for any meaningful financial aid from Washington, DC, are highly unlikely. Not only has Pakistan maxed out its deals with Saudi Arabia and the UAE but it has unendeared itself to both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi recently by cozying up to a rival “bloc” within the Ummah ie, the Turkey-Malaysia-Qatar-Iran combine. This leaves limited scope for any more substantial inflow from the Arab Sheikhdoms. Pakistan has extremely limited manoeuvring space. The only viable option is/was China.
Our neighbour has survived embarrassing defaults in the balance of payment timelines by borrowing more. The singular hope that is described by the establishment over there as the “game-changer” is the China-funded CPEC. This $62 billion infrastructural hope is mired in dangerous opacity with credible murmurs of disproportionate pro-China terms, sovereignty compromises and an eventuality of China’s fabled “debt trap.” All of this leads it to abject surrender to Beijing. Law-makers had earlier likened the CPEC to a modern-day East India company, yet with no alternatives for an economic revival in sight, the CPEC is the sole sovereign punt.
Such are the stakes involved that the Pakistani military has raised and deployed a dedicated division to protect the CPEC imperatives. It is now raising a second dedicated division level force. The gargantuan investment in CPEC is “aided” by China. The CPEC project has just completed phase-I but the forthcoming phase-II is predominantly about industrial cooperation, agriculture and trade — essentially the component that is more relevant to the Pakistanis than the Chinese.
The timing of COVID-19 could not be worse from Islamabad’s perspective as phase-II and its benefits are key to its economy’s survival. The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had openly warned the IMF a couple of years back against bailing out Pakistan. He feared that such an aid would be used by it to repay Chinese lenders. Today, the bill for full Chinese “aid,” if it were still to be given, could compound to a crushing estimate of nearly $100 billion over the next three decades. If COVID-19 does stall the Chinese “aid”, then Pakistan could be saddled with incomplete projects and unsustainable interest payments for the “aid” already taken.
Beyond bailouts and commerce, “all-weather friendship” has seen China provide invaluable diplomatic and military provisioning. While this could continue, the material wares may not necessarily come on terms as “soft” as earlier, given the financial angularity. Islamabad is also over-indexed in trade with a whopping 18 per cent of its total trade with China. This also accounts for over 31 per cent of the total imports by Pakistan. This disproportionate tilt exacerbates the Pakistani situation with looming disruptions from China.
While the exact long-term impact of COVID-19 is still unknown and China is known to have sufficient economic buffers, wherewithal and a strategic commitment to withstand setbacks with speedy recalibrations, the health of Pakistan to withstand even a temporary “switch-off” is suspect. Pakistan is too dependent on China to manage without its “aid”, especially given its recent relationships with other potential donors.
Unsurprisingly, Pakistan has pitched countries like Turkey to sell the CPEC dream and incredulously so, even the US. American diplomat Alice Wells nipped the idea in the bud by sounding out the alarm bells on CPEC per se, even without accounting for the new curve-ball of COVID-19. This could be the proverbial last straw. As of now, all global economies are mired in untellable uncertainties of post-Corona revival, some completely China-hinged like Pakistan, worse so.
(Writer: Bhopinder Singh; Courtesy: The Pioneer)
With the certainty that the Taliban will return to the corridors of power in some form or the other, it is a no-brainer to conclude that New Delhi needs dexterity than ever before
In 2001, General Abdul Rashid Dostum, then a fierce warlord, the first Vice President of Afghanistan and a key political figure for the northern Afghan provinces now, apparently said the following to the Captain of the US Army Special Forces ODA 595 fighting the Afghanistan war. The latter was on a classified mission in the wake of the September 11 attacks that led to the fight for Mazar-i-Sharif. “There are no right choices here. This is Afghanistan. Graveyard of many empires. Today you are our friend, tomorrow you are our enemy…You will be cowards if you leave. And you will be our enemies if you stay.”
With close to 100 attacks in Afghanistan post the signing of the US-Taliban deal, the decree by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to release 1,500 Taliban fighters and competing power axes in the country with Opposition leader Abdullah Abdullah and Ghani holding parallel inaugurals of the new Government in Kabul, Afghanistan threatens to come full circle from its Taliban-ruled days. Indeed, 18 years later, the US is caught between the coward-enemy binary, with the Taliban spokesman Za-bihullah Mujahid announcing, “As per the US-Taliban agreement, our mujahideen will not attack foreign forces but our operations will continue against the Kabul administration forces.” Moreover, as the Trump administration has deliberately concealed two written annexes of the deal from the public, much remains in the realm of speculation regarding the details of the pact. This would lead one to make assessments, whether or not the Taliban is living up to the end of the bargain, which is almost impossible.
The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s latest dash to Kabul to reconcile warring parties in Afghanistan, to form a unity Government and begin intra-Afghanistan talks, did not see any progress. However, the Trump administration’s threat of slashing $1 billion in assistance to Afghanistan has yielded some result with the Ghani Government and the Taliban agreeing to prisoner-swap, starting March 31. There has been little progress on the issue of two parallel Governments in Kabul. As the US is dealing with one of the worst pandemics in its history right now, its resolve to leave Afghanistan in the next 14 months is going to further strengthen. To this end, there are a few questions that need clear answers from India’s point of view. What does the emerging situation mean for peace in Afghanistan and the larger regional stability in the region? How will the resultant geopolitical and geostrategic space in Afghanistan be used by external powers? What should be India’s role in a new Afghanistan, where the Taliban has gained renewed legitimacy?
Depicting a change from its earlier stance, New Delhi welcomed the pact between the US and the Taliban. During his first foreign trip, Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla reached Kabul for a two-day visit and met top Afghan political leaders a day before the US-Taliban peace agreement was signed in Qatar on February 29. The Indian Ambassador to Qatar, P Kumaran, was also an invitee of the Qatari Government to the signing ceremony.
In November 2018, two Indian representatives participated, non-officially, in the Moscow chapter of the Afghan peace talks, which included a high-level representation from the Taliban. Besides the fact that it doesn’t want to be in a camp opposite to the US, an increasingly close partner of India in global endeavours, there is an apprehension in New Delhi about being left out of the processes that are shaping Afghanistan’s politics if the latter continues strategic distancing from the Taliban.
Pakistan’s role as one of the facilitators in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table has further shrunk New Delhi’s diplomatic heft, apropos Afghanistan at the global high table. As such, there are signs of greater skin in the game in Afghanistan for India to pre-emptively deal with an emerging politico-strategic dynamic over there.
Afghanistan has come full circle — first the ouster of the Taliban Government, then a democratic Afghan Government with security force, to the return of the Taliban as a legitimate political player. Despite the Americans calling it an agreement “between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which is not recognised by the US,” there is no denying the fact that the peace deal has brought a sense of legitimacy to the Taliban. This compels a shift in New Delhi’s Afghan strategy.
There are at least three factors that point to India’s shifting policies in Afghanistan, albeit without an endgame. First, India’s improved relations with the US and its increasing convergences with Washington have left little room for it to be on a side that’s vehemently opposed to the latter. More so when China is becoming a key player in Afghanistan. US President Donald Trump, during his recent visit to India, is said to have solicited support from New Delhi for the Taliban deal. Second, America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan tacitly thrusts a greater regional responsibility on India. This is not just in correspondence to the emerging regional expectations on the part of Afghanistan but also a palpable realisation in its scheme of regional leadership. Finally, having a greater skin in the game for India in Afghanistan, albeit with deliberate moderations in its role over there, seems to be the best option for New Delhi as the choice is between being there and being left out.
India’s role in Afghanistan since 2001 has largely been focussed on the civilian reconstruction of the war-torn country, with involvement in the security sector limited to training Afghan officers in Indian military institutions, and a rather restrained willingness to supply military platforms and equipment. Owing to recent developments, questions over the nature of India’s role in Afghanistan are being acutely debated in the Indian strategic community.
The Ghani-led Afghan Government in Kabul has barely emerged from a divided election result and is faced with an uphill task in terms of thrashing out the future of the country with the Taliban, which has steadfastly refused to recognise its legitimacy, calling it a puppet of the US Government. Much is also contingent on the release of the remaining 3,500 Taliban fighters as promised by the Ghani Government. Therefore, while New Delhi, Washington and Kabul may still call for an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led peace process, it will be naïve not to consider the return of a full-fledged violence by the Taliban.
For India, the most pertinent question is: What kind of leverage has Pakistan gained in the entire gamble, in exchange for its role in the US-Taliban talks, given its influence over the Taliban leadership and intentions to maintain strategic depth in that country? Pakistan’s regaining of the “strategic depth” runs counter to all efforts to establish an influential Indian presence in Afghanistan.
The recent heinous attack at a gurudwara in Kabul that killed 28 Sikhs portrays the complexity of the challenge for India in Afghanistan as the only legitimate backer of the elected Afghan Government even as the US purposefully recedes. If India continues to guard its stakes, irrespective of the nature of the next Government over there, it should brace for a long resistance and fight with the Pakistani deep state. As was evident in the gurudwara attack, Pakistan will intensify the use of the Haqqani network and other terrorist factions that it has a leverage on, as a front to attack India.
The India-Afghanistan strategic partnership, among other things, is based on a resolute Afghan Government in Kabul. At this juncture, with the certainty that the Taliban will return to the corridors of power in some form or the other, it is a no-brainer to conclude that New Delhi needs dexterity than ever before. Add to this, the complex picture of China, which has shown its willingness to invest in Afghanistan. The US pullout, therefore, can be an opportunity for India to fill the strategic gap. But to do this effectively, it would either require an enhanced security apparatus in Kabul, whether by partnering with another country or by itself. Both will have tremendous and long-drawn repercussions.
(Writer: Vivek Mishra / Monish Tourangbam; Courtesy: The Pioneer)
It may have come a bit late but only operational efficiencies will prove if we can win this battle against COVID-19
Maybe it came a little too late in the day, considering it was the world’s biggest social experiment with war-time precision and a huge gamble by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but India is now in a three-week nationwide lockdown to save its 1.3 billion people. A sombre-looking Modi announced a total lockdown as the days ahead were “crucial to break the cycle of transmission” of COVID-19. Many experts have suggested that a tidal wave of the quickly invasive virus was coming but this protocol would halt it in its tracks and limit the spread by a high percentage. Hopefully enough so as not to overwhelm our frail health infrastructure, which, by the PM’s own admission, was nothing comparable to the West. Hence, using the magnetism of his persona, he made an emphatic and convincing plea to not cross the lakshman rekha of our homes. Modi also allocated about $2 billion for additional healthcare measures. Though, it is by far the most far-reaching decision undertaken by any Government in the world, it is still too little. With testing still low, India should have placed itself under lockdown in February itself when it became apparent that the Coronavirus was spreading like wildfire and that people were not taking the self-reporting, quarantine or other compliances too seriously. The Government is just beginning to ramp up testing facilities and the number of quarantine centres. This should have been done on a war footing right from the beginning. We could have taken a page from Kerala’s playbook which has had experience in fighting the Nipah virus and had done a tremendous job of detecting, tracking and quarantining patients and their contacts. Now, we have reached a crisis point and we are firefighting because till now, we were on a path where cases doubled every six days. However, this week’s spike in cases means the country is now veering towards the Italy and US scenario, where cases are doubling every three days. If that happens, our hospitals will be overwhelmed by the end of May or even sooner considering that the number of hospital beds per 1,000 people in India is only 0.7, compared to 11.5 in South Korea. Further, some States will reach the point where they don’t have enough hospital beds to treat critical Covid-19 patients much sooner than others, notably Kerala, Maharashtra, Delhi and Punjab. Plus, we have an acute shortage of medical professionals in rural areas. We may have achieved the WHO-recommended ratio of 1 doctor per 1,000 patients but estimates from studies indicate that there are about four times as many allopathic doctors per 10,000 people in urban areas as compared to the rural areas. So given that over 70 per cent of our population is rural, how will we effectively cope with a contagion that no one knows much about and which springs new surprises almost on a daily basis?
The fact remains that the Centre was either overconfident or did not take it too seriously. That the latter seems to be the case can be gauged from the fact that a Congress leader critiqued the Government’s response to the outbreak in February. When he said that the Centre assuring the nation that the virus was under control was akin to the “captain of the Titanic telling his passengers not to panic as his ship was unsinkable,” the Health Minister had countered robustly, saying that it was not the time for comparisons. We were misled by WHO, too, which is now extremely worried. Lessons learnt? We simply should not reference ourselves against any estimates and rely on our own resources and research expertise. We should finally prioritise a budget for health as a key and not just a social sector. And for all the heroism of ensuring a civil lockdown, we must ensure operational efficiencies first. Or food riots could be a subsidiary crisis.
(Courtesy: The Pioneer)
For Nepal, balancing India and China is challenging; expecting it to also balance America and Beijing would be walking a tightrope. For India, regaining space lost to China will be a long haul
I go to Nepal twice a year. Once during Holi and the other on Tihar (Nepali bhai dooj) that comes after Dussehra. The normal format is: Fly to Kathmandu, spend two to three days there, then fly to Pokhara for a two-week trek and then revival. The pre-Holi Kathmandu weather this year was a spoilsport — cold, bleak and rainy — amid the Corona scare, though Nepal had registered just one case and that figure remains intact even today. Just this week, Nepal went into total lockdown till March 31. One-third of its population of 30 million people works abroad, mainly in the Middle East, South-east Asia and India. Their earnings account for nearly one-third of its gross domestic product (GDP) of $35 million.
Many Nepalese wear face masks throughout the year in Kathmandu and elsewhere due to garbage and pollution. Everything appeared normal at the Tribhuvan International Airport, including the temperature gun aimed at people. The country has for the moment cancelled its inaugural Sagarmatha Sambad, a three-day conference on climate change, which Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali said would be postponed to October. He also said he was pleased with India-Nepal relations now that the Foreign Secretary-level Kalapani dialogue is about to start shortly and the Eminent Persons Group (EPG) report appeared on the horizon.
My lecture at Nepal’s Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement on a holiday (Saturday, March 6) was well-received. It was preceded by a presentation on the Coronavirus and the world economy. The theme of my presentation was: “India-Nepal Relations: Mind the Gap — Where China Fits in.” The Kathmandu Post, the capital’s leading English newspaper, was recently stung by a stern rebuke by the Chinese Embassy for reproducing a syndicated column on Coronavirus by a former US Ambassador, who was critical of China. While this intrusion was condemned by the Nepalese media, not a word was said by the Prime Minister KP Oli-led Government.
During the royal rule, the Chinese used to say that they do not interfere in the internal affairs of the host Government. This is now a thing of the past. That the Chinese assault on freedoms guaranteed by the Nepalese Constitution went officially unresponded was not surprising. Any similar affront by India would have attracted loud and collective protests by the media and the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), which is inarguably pro-China. Clive Hamilton’s Silent Invasion: China’s Influence in Australia and Jonathan Manthorpe’s Claws of the Panda: Beijing’s Campaign of Influence and Intimidation in Canada are books reflecting on China’s global outreach and blatant intrusions.
Like in the rest of the world, politics is on long pause in Nepal. Reason: Oli’s health and the spread of Coronavirus. The main topic of discussion after Oli received his second kidney replacement is his political rejuvenation. Unless his health deteriorates, rendering him dysfunctional, he will continue to lead the country by remote control. Fortunately, the Coronavirus epidemic appears controlled for now and life goes on happily without fear or scare throughout Nepal.
I arrived in Pokhara a day before Holi on an Air Buddha flight, which took all of 25 minutes. The only BMW in Pokhara, belonging to Nepali Congress’ Buddhiman Gurung, drove me to Lameahal, 15 km east of Pokhara. Holi is celebrated on the 6,000 ft high newly-built Manithan temple at An Phu village, where the bhale (male chicken) or boka (male goat) are sacrificed till the brown hilltop turns red. The pujari (priest) has to first persuade bhale and boka to accept becoming the sacrificial offering before their beheading by the khukuri-wielding priest. Side by side, dry colours mix freely with local dance and drinks as tribal Gurungs bring out their best. From Lameahal, one has to cross the Seti river on a swing bridge, climbing about two hours to reach An Phu top, which makes for a healthy
daily trek.
Meanwhile, with regime change in the Oli-led NCP unlikely till next elections in 2023, it is the latent power struggle between Oli and party president Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda that is making the gossip. Given Oli’s uncertain health, Prachanda has played his cards cleverly to ensure that sooner than later, the power hierarchy in Kathmandu could look like this: Madhav Kumar Nepal, former Nepal Prime Minister, Jhalanath Khanal, the President of Nepal, and Prachanda, the undisputed president of the party. The opposition Nepali Congress in Nepal, like Indian National Congress, is on a decline. Nepali Congress (NC), which was split into three factions — SB Deuba, RC Poudyal and KP Sitaulla — has two additional wings: The Koirala legacy and Ganesh Man Singh groups. Both NCP and NC will have their first and 14th general conventions in 2021.
While in NC, Deuba remains the top leader, other parties have opted for joint or collective leadership to avoid infighting. For example, the royalist Rashtriya Prajatantra Party, which merged recently, has three presidents. The Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP) has a six-member presidium led by Mahanta Thakur. The Samajwadi Party (SP) has a triumvirate leadership — former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai, Upendra Yadav and Ashok Rai. The RJP and SP, who together rule number two province, are considering merger after unification talks. They have been pressing the Oli Government to amend the Constitution, incorporating pending issues of the Madhesis, janjatis and marginalised communities.
Two years on, the Opposition parties are complaining that the ruling NCP is besieged by scandals — gold, wide-bodied aircraft, NCell and a close aide of Oli, Banskota — and misgovernance but have no alternate vision plan to offer. While China will ensure the NCP stays united and the Government does not fall, India is loath to being seen as having favourites or indulging in regime change. The Government is seized with matters like the US-sponsored Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and the Indo-Pacific, which are seen as means of challenging China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and containing it. Die-hard communist members of NCP are unwilling to countenance this. For Nepal, balancing India and China is challenging enough; expecting it to also balance the US and China would be walking a tightrope.
For India, regaining space lost to China will be a long haul. In the meantime, it can invest in improving its declined image, damaged by the blockade of 2015, which gave rise to anti-Indianism and fillip to China. It has chosen a competent and promising Ambassador, Vinay Kwatra, for the job. On March 18, when I was at Pokhara airport bound for New Delhi, one of my Nepalese friends made this irresistible offer: “Mehtaji, why don’t you stay in Lameahal till the Coronavirus dries up?” Back in Noida, I am confined to Ram Vihar instead of climbing to An Phu top and breathing a daily dose of crisp Himalayan air.
(Writer: Ashok K Mehta; Courtesy: The Pioneer)
Omar Abdullah is free and used his appeal, that at one time was considered incendiary, to calm his people amid virus fears
Yes, former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister and National Conference (NC) leader Omar Abdullah has been released from detention. But the circumstances surrounding his release are just as hazy as his arrest. In the dark shadow of COVID-19, Omar decided that though it was a different Kashmir he was returning to, there was a bigger question of life and death at the moment and so spread the Government’s message of social distancing and quarantine. If the Government’s charges for booking him after the abrogation of Article 370 — that his messages were divisive and could incite people and youngsters — are an estimate of his appeal, then Omar certainly proved how the Government bungled in underestimating his positive net worth. For he used the same appeal to ask his people to be calm in the time of a horrid pandemic and follow protocol, politics could come later. Clearly, NC chief Farooq Abdullah, who was released earlier and Omar, both of whom had been allies of the BJP Government, and not too troublesome ones at that, could have been used to normalise the bridge with civil society in Kashmir despite its changed status as a Union Territory. And by equating the old political leadership with terrorists, when in fact the Abdullahs were much of a filter, the Modi Government cannot walk the talk of ushering in development in Kashmir. It still needs the mediatory presence of local parties but has blunderously pushed them away. In their absence, the ruling BJP could not conduct the panchayat and local-level polls successfully, although it has been hoping to build a new narrative ground up with candidates friendly to it. Such was the boycott then that over 12,000 panchayat seats continue to be vacant. Panchayats have made it clear that any electoral process would have to be preceded by the release of jailed NC and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) leaders. Clearly, without traditional politicians, the BJP is finding it extremely difficult to re-engage with people. Already payments are pending for work done under MGNREGA scheme over the last several years. And in the trough of COVID-19, the Government might face more ire locally. Neither has the BJP been able to raise an alternative front or a political climate. It may have encouraged the formation of the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP) drawing rejects from PDP and NC, but it cannot generate reassurance, least of all credibility.
Besides, the Modi Government has failed to justify why it used the Public Safety Act (PSA) to book Omar. The law was passed in 1978 by Sheikh Abdullah, who founded the NC. Over the years, it has been used indiscriminately to curb dissent, invoked most frequently against separatist leaders and protesting teenagers. One can understand the dynastic hatred involved in arresting Omar under a law passed by his grandfather. But beyond the theatrics of a “great fall,” it is the dossier of charges against him that defied reason and bordered on the ridiculous. Omar’s ostensible crime was the capacity to influence people and his ability “to convince his electorate to come out and vote in huge numbers even during the peak of militancy and poll boycotts.” If this swaying ability, something that the Atal Bihari Vajpayee regime used to build a bridge over the conflict, is not an asset, then one wonders what is. If his persistent calls to resolve the conflict through democratic processes are not Centrist, then one wonders what separatism is. For these abilities, which the current regime could have used to transition to a new narrative, have been wasted away. Omar, the genial, quiet and engaging fighter, once seen as a puppet prince, will now be Kashmir’s face of quiet resistance. The captivity has given him the halo he needed.
(Courtesy: The Pioneer)
While a detailed analysis of the Delhi riots would be carried out to fix accountability, there’s a need to usher in the much-delayed reforms in the police and the criminal justice system
Following the recent riots in the national capital, a wholesome praise of the Delhi Police in Parliament by Home Minister Amit Shah should not lull the force into a sense of complacency. For, earlier, the Supreme Court had observed that the violence in Delhi could have been prevented had the police acted independently. The apex court Bench of Justices Sanjay Kishan Kaul and KM Joseph went on to comment, “Unfortunate things have happened. The problem is the total lack of independence of police.” Very strong words as these were, though only in the nature of obiter dicta, they were widely covered by the print media, aptly reflecting the prevailing state of affairs in the Delhi Police. The Minister of State for Home informed Parliament of the steps taken by the Delhi Police to restore normalcy.
Nevertheless, after the recent appointment of SN Shrivastava as the new Delhi Police Commissioner, it was expected of the force to undertake a detailed analysis of how the riots were handled so as to rectify the weaknesses. In our criminal justice system, police happens to be the fundamental element and the very first point of interface with the public. It is from here that perceptions, right or wrong, are created about the mechanics of delivery of justice.
Earlier, the top court had refused to hear any plea pertaining to the Delhi riots as it observed that these would appear before the Delhi High Court. What transpired at the High Court made national news. The High Court judge, who initially heard the matter and passed urgent orders, was transferred midnight, an ignominy usually meant for errant district officials. On the other hand, the very next day, the Chief Justice of the High Court adjourned the matter for a few weeks. In the face of severe criticism, the Supreme Court had to step in and issue directions to the High Court to list Delhi riots cases on March 6 but again, it was delayed by a few days.
Every action/inaction on the part of the police vis-a-vis its duties towards the public is justiciable. The higher judiciary, in particular, is held in great awe and feared. It also exercises a great deal of moral authority over the system. Any question or query by them in the interest of the public not only sets the right tone and direction for the police but also acts as the guiding principle for future handling of similar situations. As such in the prevailing situation in Delhi, where it was a question of life and death besides home and hearth, the need was for intervention from any level as the police was generally found wanting.
A comparison with the situation post the communal riots in Muzaffarnagar, just a few months before the General Elections of 2014, readily comes to mind. The Supreme Court had handed over a scathing indictment to the State Government. It went on to say, “The State Government was negligent and failed to protect the fundamental rights of the people.” Also, soon after the riots, it intervened and directed the Uttar Pradesh Government to give equal compensation to the victims of all communities. Now much later, riot cases like these are in the process of being systematically withdrawn and where ever the trials are in progress, large numbers of witnesses appear to be turning hostile. Though it is not for the first time that riot cases are being withdrawn but in the matter of communal riots, setting a wrong precedent one after another does not help prevent recurrence and should invite positive judicial intervention.
The initial inaction and delay on the part of the police appears to have sent a wrong message among the rioters. This issue has been extensively debated and commented upon. This became a major factor in leading to a very high toll in the riots. There are numerous instructions and case studies on the subject of handling riots by the police. A calibrated use of force is generally recommended for the dispersal of unlawful Assemblies. However, the situation is different in respect of communal riots where the police is expected to straightaway come down with a heavy hand and bring the situation under control, without waiting for any instruction.
In Delhi, considering the availability of resources, in the normal course, it should be possible to handle a riotous situation in a matter of hours. In the instant case, this did not happen as lumpen elements continued to dominate the force, resulting in a heavy toll. It is not as if the force is unaware of the tactics. For instance, just the other day, by its very swift action and reaching out to people, the Delhi police was able to curtail the spread of rumours and was able to prevent a serious clash in West Delhi area.
It is now understood that a very large number of cases have been registered and a few thousand have been detained. This should have a salutary impact. It is, however, surprising that in spite of the public order being seriously impaired, there has been no detention so far under the National Security Act. There is no dearth of technological resources available to Delhi Police but these can never be a substitute for human intelligence. While developing assets in right places requires a lot of time and patient handling, the role of beat and field staff of the police station would continue to be most important.
The Supreme Court is held in high esteem by all of us. Being the custodian of our Constitution and all the ethical and moral values attached therewith, a responsibility is thus cast on it all the time to uphold the rule of law. Soon after he assumed office, as the Chief Justice of India, Sharad Arvind Bobde had asked various States to file affidavits by February, with suggestions for reforms in the criminal justice system as well as the police.
This matter has been pending since long and needs to be addressed most expeditiously. While the usual post-mortem of the riots would be carried out and accountability would be fixed, it has been felt that we also have an opportunity to usher in the much-delayed reforms in the police as well as the criminal justice system.
(Writer: KK Paul; Courtesy: The Pioneer)
With two States, where it was a ruling entity either in coalition or singly, out of its grip, party needs to take final call
Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath’s resignation may appear to have been taken under duress because of the BJP’s Operation Lotus, or toppling elected Governments by breaking ruling parties and buying over MLAs. He may have claimed that he was gracious under destructive pressure and took the moral high ground of the BJP “murdering democracy.” Even then, it would seem like he is shifting the blame to an externality rather than looking at the cracks in his own house. One must remember that the Assembly elections of 2018 had thrown up a badly split verdict that set the coalition politics rolling with the Congress itself guilty of buying support from the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and just about scraping past the BJP’s 107 mark. So it is not like the Congress, for whom winning States and restoring its federal matrix is more a necessity than an indulgence, crouching as it is in a pit of national irrelevance, didn’t know what was coming. Or what needed to be worked on. It is a gross failure of the central party leadership to continue status quo rather than break the mould, trust its old coterie of leaders to manage affairs rather than embolden young leaders, who had not only worked the ground but had won the people’s faith that they could renew and rescue the party. Both Jyotiraditya Scindia in Madhya Pradesh and Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan had electoral verdicts to prove that they could be just as credible in capability, rebuilding and outreach. Still, Congress matriarch Sonia Gandhi gifted the chief ministership to old hawks like Kamal Nath and Ashok Gehlot. These courtiers of the dynastic party had long built their indispensability through a transactional relationship of managing their home turfs and generating enough political capital to strengthen the central leadership. At the time, the leadership had counted on this dependence to deliver power, ignoring that this continuity would cost it dearly. The young Turks, all itching in their middling years to deliver the goods, were rebellious and determined. All that the central leadership’s obstinacy and fears of a split by the old guard achieved was delay the inevitable. Had there been a breakthrough change, the Turks would be with the party and emboldened, crafted a new model of governance. Even a peerage that respected its members. As the Madhya Pradesh imbroglio has shown, there was no love lost between Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh. The Congress’ tailspin may have happened after 22 MLAs flew to Bengaluru last week and resigned after Scindia quit his party of 18 years. But trouble was brewing much before. Kamal Nath miscalculated, thinking managing legislators was a shopping expedition. But the Scindia loyalists have proved that even the grassroots workers need new direction. Scindia has undoubtedly made a politically convenient choice. But by being just another leader of the State BJP, he wants to forget the irrelevance of the many party posts that the Congress had placated him with. If this is still not a lesson for Congress, then its stakeholders better prepare for more sell-offs.
As for the BJP, the party won’t stop short at anything to destabilise its hold on the heartland. Madhya Pradesh, in particular, is intrinsically a Hindutva factory, where the ideology resonates among people easily. The Sangh Parivar’s leaders have always been rewarded, even brutal hardliners like Pragya Thakur. And there will be acceptability for some like Shivraj Singh Chouhan, a three-time Chief Minister who should be returned to power, because he has an enviable performance record that has scripted the State’s turnaround story. In fact, there was a time when his proactive policies, although not as well publicised as Narendra Modi’s Gujarat model of governance, and clean image helped him beat anti-incumbency. His asset of being a doer-politician is also his liability as the Modi-Shah duo do not want his persona to outshine their own. In fact, Chouhan had put together the numbers, too, when the Congress staked claim in 2018 but was not allowed to emerge taller in crisis. Already names of Narottam Mishra and Union Minister Narendra Tomar are in circulation, the former asserting his centrality a la BS Yedyurappa in Karnataka. Mishra comes from the Gwalior-Chambal region and may want a prize for gifting the party a rare moment of stealing a dear friend of Congress crown prince Rahul Gandhi. Tomar happens to be close to Chouhan. Maybe it is time for the BJP leadership to shed its biases and entrust the party fate in the hands of a ground warrior like Chouhan. Most importantly learn from the Congress failure to back the winning horse.
(Courtesy: The Pioneer)
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