Gehlot continues his leverage with the Congress, brandishing legislators and now incriminating audio tapes
It doesn’t look like conditions are conducive for Sachin Pilot to continue as a Congressman for too long, leave aside in Rajasthan, which he had nurtured as his political karmabhoomi and for which he is claiming rightful accommodation. And if he is indeed disqualified or declared unattached, should the courts not be happy with his explanation on why he defied diktats for party meetings or why his dissent is freedom of speech, he would be out in the cold. But he’s not giving up the fight yet. Given the vituperative campaign mounted against him, it appears that while he may be a vote-catcher, he is not a power converter or as artful a politician as his rival from the old guard, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. The latter continues to have a hold on the legislators and the organisational matrix, something that had compelled the Congress high command to name him Chief Minister while making Pilot his deputy despite the latter shoring up the party’s tally across the State. Gehlot has been trying to drive Pilot away from the very beginning, limiting his powers. Then came the sedition charge, accusing him of trying to topple the Government in connivance with the BJP during the Rajya Sabha polls, although the Congress won that round. But it worked as a perfect trap with Pilot walking into it and declaring his freedom from imposed indignities. And now to make sure that his loyalists desert him in a fruitless and asymmetrical battle, Gehlot has released audio recordings of topple game plans between MLAs close to Pilot and the BJP. The party went so far as to name Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat in an FIR, saying it had his voice on tape. The Congress has suspended rebel MLAs Bhanwar Lal Sharma and Vishvendra Singh from primary membership, a clear signal to Pilot that his fate would be no better. Pilot still denies the overthrow attempts and says he is not joining the BJP but stacked up against a visible show of strength, has little legroom to defend himself. He may appear offensive but fact is Gehlot fuelled his impatience and instead of settling intra-party differences like the smooth administrator he is, let them fester. The CM has herded a majority of the legislators, promised rewards to them and threatened Pilot camp MLAs with disqualification, saying they would stand to lose. And with the police investigation and audio clips, he has managed to convince the Congress central leadership that Pilot had indeed overreached his ambitions to the extent of confabulating with the BJP. The stern statements endorsing Gehlot’s line of argument coming from Central emissary Randeep Singh Surjewala is proof enough that Gehlot has again been able to leverage numbers to justify his continuity as a chieftain. This despite certain reconciliatory voices of senior leaders and the Gandhi scions who held off Pilot from making a rash decision. Gehlot has also made sure that by embarrassing and calling out the BJP, which was attempting a subtle kind of Operation Lotus, and weaning away some MLAs off Pilot, he looks less attractive as an investment.
The Rajasthan imbroglio shows why the Congress will always be a party of status quo since its old hawks, who have been allowed to unquestioningly harvest their own fiefs while humouring the central leadership, will simply not allow any scope for improvement or inspire the young to take over the baton. If any paratrooping attempt is made, then they threaten rebellion and given the years of familiarity at the local level, they have a far stronger federal appeal and strength of personality to fall back upon. Ask Pilot, who has made inroads but his appeal is just incremental to the resources of Gehlot. He is still a challenger to the chieftain. It shows that even the younger Gandhis, Rahul and Priyanka, have no say as Gehlot went ahead with his belligerence despite their warnings. Gehlot can easily turn himself victim of the younger dynasts, claiming he has always pledged his loyalty to them. And since the States are mostly with the old guard, even Rahul and Priyanka are not confident of swinging things their way and assuage the ascendant ambitions of the younger lot. The Young Turks are no longer young, now in their middling 40s and 50s, and are desperate to register some career benchmarks than continue to be faceless foot soldiers. And given India’s changing political landscape, the dynamism of younger federal leaders and a more performance-driven verve in public discourse, they just don’t want to wait in a queue. The old hawks are 60 plus themselves and had actually seized the reins of leadership quite young. So they will never understand this angst. Perhaps that’s why Rahul himself, frustrated at 50, had stepped down as party president last year. Yes, the old guard wants Rahul back as leader, not for any altruistic reason but simply because the old warriors want to use his surname to shield themselves from taking responsibility for the party’s falling fortunes. As for Pilot, he has to lie low for a while than seem power-hungry and even with his own outfit, clustered around prominent Gujjar votes, he would still have to, at some point, deal with the BJP. Then he would have to forget chief ministership for 2023 as BJP has no less claimants. Meanwhile, the Congress may be missing the woods for the trees. Trees which stand despite being reduced to stumps.
(Courtesy: The Pioneer)
Even before the Covid 19 catastrophe, the USA was doing everything economically possible to lose its multiple battles to the Chinese. Its dollar hegemony was getting steadily eroded as segments of trade were steadily moving out to multiple other currencies. President Trump was succeeding in antagonizing most global leaders, he was under attack at home, his trade war with China had hurt economic growth for most economies, and his domestic ratings were dropping. What made emperor Xi Jinping decide that 2020 was the year that he dethroned the USA and establish the RMB as the new reserve currency is the world?
Let’s see if some forecasts of economic parameters for 2019 and 2030 by a few American think-tanks make sense. They projected that in Purchasing Power parity terms, in 2019 the Chinese GDP was already larger than the USA’s GDP and by 2030 it could be up-to 70% larger. As a share of Global output China would grow to 32% from 20% currently, as opposed to the USA declining from 16% to 10%. In terms of Global Market Capitalisation the Chinese would grow to 25% from 5% in 2019, whilst the USA would decline from 40% to 18%. China’s share of global exports would rise to 18% from 12% whilst the USA would be static at 8%. The above forecasts were supported by massive Chinese investments in Education in the fields of Mathematics, Science, Technology, Medicine and rapidly improving the quality of education. The number of STEM students would outnumber the USA by a factor of five times. Chinese ranking in Fintech is number 1, Wearables , Virtual Reality, Education Tech, Autonomous Driving is 2, and in Artificial Intelligence they are a close third behind the USA and UK. 34% of the world’s unicorns are Chinese as opposed to 47% for the USA, but in terms of market capitalization they were on par.
Starting with the 1980’s the Chinese had successfully got the world’s manufacturing supply chain to relocate to China, and were truly the “factory of the world”. From a pure labour arbitrage offering, they created world class infrastructure (Cities, Roads, Ports, Airports) to support it. The top 2500 corporates outside China all had a business presence in China. This aggressive export led growth model allowed the Chinese to radically improve per capita income, and in the process also create a massive domestic consumption engine. A 40% domestic savings rate supported the huge developments that happened on their Eastern Seaboard. Till 2012 the Chinese government was sitting on Foreign Exchange Reserves of close to $5 Trillion. Over time Chinese labour had become a very skilled workforce, moved up the value chain and was no longer cheap. China now imported/consumed 45-50% of virtually every commodity in the world even though more than half of it was re-exported.
Chinese leaders till 2012 had made the country keep a low profile , hiding their strengths, whilst they relentlessly gained market share from the world. Asian growth engines Japan and South Korea had also felt compelled to move/make tangible manufacturing investments in China. The Chinese had mastered the skill of acquiring the world’s IPR ‘s by any means-true implementers of Chanakya-Niti(sama, dama, danda, bheda). Their Chinese Communist Party(CCP) command and control structure had also silently expanded their Foreign Ministry with requisite resources to create a Public Relations repository in every major country, to manage the national discourse on any prickly subject in their favour. This three decade profile started changing with Xi Jinping’s ascension to Chairmanship in 2012.
The Chinese strategists now started believing that the Middle Kingdom deserved to rule the world. They changed the nomenclature of the 21 st. century being an Asian century to a Chinese century. They mapped that post 2008 Global Financial Institutions were weakened, substantially dysfunctional and lacking leadership. They unleashed a project of achieving complete Chinese dominance in the manpower of every multilateral agency and United Nations body in the world. Chinese students were encouraged to study overseas and many persuaded to join these organizations, and as so many FBI investigations are now showing made instruments of Government policy.
The collapse of the USSR in the 1990’s and the profligacy of the US financial sector in 2008 had left a leadership vacuum in many areas. Xi Jinping moved rapidly to occupy the vacancies. China needed to secure its supply chain as it neither produced adequate food for its population, nor was endowed with manufacturing or energy raw materials. Chinese leadership wanted to avoid supply side shocks and created strategies to acquire assets surreptitiously. They moved rapidly to fund every country and project that the World Bank or rest of the world would not find viable. The Chinese wanted to eventually acquire the underlying asset and default was hence a preferred option for them. This juggernaut covered 150 countries and nearly $5 Trillion in loans/investments. The new Chairman had successfully
over-invested the Chinese USD reserves, and left his country very vulnerable. They desperately needed their Dollar engine( Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Portfolio Investment, and Foreign Currency Loans) to keep firing quickly to recoup their position, or alternately fast track their long term vision to get global trade out of the dollar and into the RMB.
Unluckily for the Chinese two things changed the landscape in 2017. President Trump had won the US election and was a wildcard that the Chinese read wrongly. Secondly the world economy started topping out, and growth started stalling. The Chinese engine was not designed to handle economic contraction. Fault-lines in the domestic economy led by huge non performing loans in domestic State Owned Enterprises. Ghost cities started appearing, as domestic demand stalled, whilst domestic real estate started going belly-up. The country was overbuilt and no more infrastructure spending was needed. Trump started the trade war and insisted that the Chinese reduce the Trade surpluses. President Xi erred massively in not giving Trump a cheap victory, and getting the Americans riled.
American strategists had clearly war-games that the days of the USD hegemony were numbered, and if their political dominance was to be extended, a war with China was not an option, the only question was timing. By a strange coincidence the two technology hardware giants USA and China were tangibly dependent on Taiwan for their Semiconductor underbelly. Taiwan has a dominant share in the Semiconductor foundries globally, and both the USA and China are dependent on them. The Americans had anticipated this and a JV with the Taiwanese would go operational in Arizona in 2023. Till then any military threat to Taiwan would be an attack on their technology dominance, an intolerable thought for them. Democrat Presidents had soft-pedaled on the One China policy, and the Chinese had succeeded in getting away with their wish-lists. The Americans had celebrated access to a large consumption market, but landed up creating a rival.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army(PLA) in manpower terms is the largest standing armed force on the globe. The PLA and CCP moved fast to upgrade weapon systems, stealing blueprints and buying where they could not .Theoretically they are a lethal strike force. However the navy is their Achilles heel, and they lack best in class aircraft carriers and submarines. This limits their ability to protect their interests spanning 150 countries.75% of Chinese oil still moves in tankers through the narrow Malacca Straits. To reach the Arabian sea by land they invested in a bankrupt Pakistan by constructing the CPEC which links Xinjiang to Gwadar Port and is a dedicated economic corridor. They also engaged east European and European countries to construct the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for creating dedicated freight corridors to 50 European cities. In the process they have de-risked their trade supply routes, but their oil buy routes lie exposed.
The nightmare for China achieving dominance is that Indian land illegally occupied by Pakistan is being used by CPEC and India reacquiring POK by use of military power could render their $66 Billion investment in Pakistan useless, blocking oil supply. The Chinese realized that economic sanctions against Iran had crippled the proud country, that it had 15% of the world’s oil, needed investments, and so decided to bust sanctions on Iran imposed by the United Nations (they were party to imposing them). China and Iran signed a 25 year Trade and Military alliance in June 2020. China has bet on the USA exiting Afghanistan in 2020, and by using the Pakistani’s to install a puppet regime in Afghanistan, they could take a pipeline from Iran to Xinjiang. In turn the Chinese have to pump in the equivalent of $400 Billion into Iran’s development, which they can crank their RMB economy to deliver. Where does that leave the Pakistani’s?
In the interim President Xi got the CCP to appoint him as the leader for life and emerged as an emperor. The CCP decided that by its 100th anniversary in 2021, they would stamp themselves as “numero uno” in the world. A few pinpricks remained. Taiwan and Hong-kong as independent democracies were an eyesore, and raised aspirations of good life in mainland Chinese youth. They had to be acquired by coercion or force at the earliest. The South China sea had $4 Trillion of supply chain that transited the route. China laid claims to territories/islands of all its neighbours and started constructing artificial islands as missile bases. They started bullying and humiliating Australia since 70% of Australian mining exports were bought by China. Singularly none of the Asian countries could take on China, but many could exact a heavy toll if it came to conflict. The Chinese flirted with conflict with all their neighbours using “wearing down” tactics.
The success of this gambit hinged on the continuity of their trade with the USA, heavily skewed in their favour. President Trump not getting an early trade war win, upped the ante, imposing a $250 Billion annual hit on China. Chinese perhaps felt that US corporations would not listen to their government and continue business as usual. They floated a trial balloon by abrogating the agreement with Hong Kong which would have lapsed in 2047, and suppressing protests with brute force. Then they ostensibly colluded/ manipulated the WHO and unleashed the Covid 19 pandemic on the world infecting every country on the planet. This collapsed world economies and has created a very strong anti-China sentiment.
It has resulted in fast tracking the creation of the Quad, an alliance of the USA, Japan, Australia and India to take on the Chinese. UK, France and Israel are openly in support of the Quad, whilst Vietnam, Myanmar, Philippines, Indonesia ,Taiwan and South Korea have alerted their armed forces for battle readiness. In the Chinese camp are North Korea, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey with anti-India squeaks emerging from Nepal, Bangladesh and SriLanka.
With China designated as world enemy number 1, even Joe Biden has ratcheted up the anti-China rhetoric, lest President Trump steal the thunder and a potentially lost election by a war with China before November this year. The Indian and Chinese armies are facing off across 3400 Km. border, and a tense peace prevails currently. The Middle East has so far stayed quiet, but by default will have to choose sides as a Shia Iran and a Sunni Pakistan and Turkey side with the Chinese. It is an uneasy time for the Saudi’s and the UAE. It is ironic that the OIC and its 54 member countries including the” Turkish caliphate” maintain a studied silence on China incarcerating nearly 3 million Uyghur muslims in Xinjiang, and possibly Chinese money silences their conscience when no Uyghur child can have the name Mohammed(as per media reports).
The Koreans however had seen this coming two years earlier and Samsung had moved an $18 Billion annual capacity out of China to Vietnam. Japan has incentivized its corporations to exit China totally. India has banned Chinese Telecom equipment and Apps with immediate effect. There is a very strong anti-Chinese imports movement starting in India, and may set an example for the world to follow. China’s partners in BRI and in Africa are resenting the usurious conditions in their loan agreements. The Americans are shutting off access to their Capital markets to the Chinese, and cancellation of the Hong Kong treaty will kill the USD supply route to China. The Chinese Balance of payments is negative for the last few months, and days of surpluses are now a memory. They still need to buy food and oil and commodities.
Even nature seems to have conspired to ruin Emperor Xi’s timing. China is being ravaged by the worst ever floods in the last 100 years with 29 of its provinces impacted, and the survival of the showpiece Three Gorges Dam under threat from heavy rain which could affect nearly 400 Million people as downstream cities including Shanghai could be impacted. Scams like fake Gold collateral has shaken China’s $5 Trillion Shadow banking industry as the Kingold default is by a powerful former CCP member. It also puts a question mark on the credibility of China’s domestic gold production which is part of its National Reserves, as to how much of it is gold plated copper. Will anyone in the world now ever trust a Chinese certification of gold. This scandal has seriously damaged China’s plans of having a partial gold backed alternate currency to replace the dollar.
The silent spectator in the entire game is Russia. They are happy selling their weapon systems to China, India and Turkey. In the EU, the Germans have broken ranks with France and chosen to placate the Chinese. They have removed Taiwan’s flag from their website and refused to criticize Chinese action in Hong Kong, leaving a non-state flag of Palestine intact .It is ironic that this once proud industrial giant is now subservient to a regime with ambitions very similar to Hitler. Early days but it signals the cracks in the EU, and are its days as a common market nearing a close?
The world now sits on a powder keg in the midst of the Covid crisis. Funnily it is China’s 150 debtor countries (especially Pakistan) that must be praying for a fall and dismemberment of their Lender, for them to escape losing their sovereignty which they have so negligently mortgaged. President Trump and Emperor Xi now have gone too far for either of them to back-down without losing their crowns. For Trump it’s just an election, but the world knows what happens to deposed Chinese dictators. The South Asian countries all want Tibet to regain its independence after being annexed by the Chinese in 1950 so that they all get their fresh water security back.
The Chinese till the last four years maintained an inscrutable long term game plan in every sphere and slowly and steadily acquired a position of dominance. It is inexplicable that with chips falling in their favour by default, why did they have to speed up the time table. The USA was busy scoring self goals, and vacating its global presence, and in five years would have handed the Chinese global dominance on a platter. Thus the trigger to the timeline was not a global prod, but very compelling domestic reasons. China’s banking regulator has advised domestic banks to be prepared for sharp rises in bad loans once the Covid moratorium period is over. It has guided banks to conserve capital by not paying dividends and bonuses. Three Chinese banks have collapsed in the last three years, and 15% of the Financial sector is supposedly past a high risk stage. Tax revenues have grown under 5%, and budget deficits exceed 11%. In the Hebei province (population 70 Million) bank depositors cannot withdraw their own money
without genuine reasons to prevent a run on the banks. The season of discontent for 1.4 Billion Chinese has arrived.
China created the BRI to use the surplus capacity in its construction materials and equipment sector, and to keep Chinese labour occupied. Experts estimate that this project needs another $ 5Trillion over the next five years to complete it. The money given to 150 countries cannot be recalled. The Hong Kong door may be closed by the Americans if push comes to shove. The FDI and FPI flows post Covid may flow outwards. China’s $10 Trillion foreign debt is realistically supported by $2 Trillion of reserves. With Balance of Trade going negative, even diehard Chinese supporters are a highly nervous lot. If China’s trading partners do not agree to settlements denominated in the RMB, a run on the currency is highly possible.
The dilemma for the Xi led CCP is what do they tell their domestic audience. In the age of the internet, you can censor but not hide. News spreads like wildfire with every citizen carrying smart-phones. Do the Chinese need to beat the war-drums to transfer the blame for their miscalculations. The world scenario is evolving every week, and 2020 threatened to be a very long year indeed.
Sanjit Paul Singh (Managing Partner S&S associates)
Gehlot has numbers but Sachin Pilot has the perception and goodwill. Congress will suffer a body blow if he leaves
That ego wars have killed the Congress is old news. What’s new is that it considers its factionalism as a championship round in an arena between suitable claimants to leadership and revels in the challengers it produces as an asset rather than a weakness. Challengers mean a second rung is ready and the top leadership can be held in check. And both can be used against each other. To the point that even when it is on the brink of disaster, now beginning to lose its State Governments despite a verdict in its favour, it refuses to acknowledge challengers who become the new winners and turns them into rebels. This is exactly what has happened in Madhya Pradesh and now in Rajasthan. This feudalistic pursuit, of course, flows from its dynastic leadership that wants to be feted as the only hope of a party of warring chieftains. The old warriors, who have unquestioningly accepted the primacy of Gandhis in deciding what’s good for the party, humoured them even, have sought satrap status to rule over their home turfs on their terms in return for delivering election results. This mutual prosperity flourished till the political landscape itself changed to reward a more ground-up, fresh-faced and performance-driven parties and leaders. The Congress didn’t even bother to broadbase its own structure by way of holding organisational polls, leave aside transforming itself. Even when Rahul Gandhi assumed leadership with his peers like Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot to usher in a new wave, it was merely cosmetic. Scindia and Pilot though chose to live down their dynastic entitlements and in their mid-40s, desperately wanted to create their own political legacy. To that extent, both gave up their comfort zones in Delhi and worked the ground in their States, resurrecting Congress fortunes in the process. But both were never given what they wanted, the chief ministership of their States despite delivering a winning verdict. The Gandhis were more scared of a senior revolt that would be difficult to quell than handling disappointed Young Turks, who being Rahul’s friends and confidants, could, they thought, be won over. The Gandhi scion ultimately kowtowed to his mother Sonia Gandhi’s propensity to go with old loyalists rather than risk them holding the party hostage by threatening breakaway units and worse, undercutting it. Rahul would never rebel because even the old hawks would endorse him so long as they continued their free run and left him to face the critique and responsibility of Congress fortunes. So there’s no fight left for Rahul, who by the way has a soft corner for Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, too. The likes of Pilot, Scindia and Milind Deora resented being castaways who would have to wait perennially for their time to come as the old guard maintained status quo. And invested in politics as a career, they are now leaving the grand old party, one that has left thinking seniors like Kapil Sibal and Shashi Tharoor wondering if the party stables would be empty after “the horses had bolted.”
Sachin Pilot has been deeply invested in Rajasthan, getting the verdict for the Assembly polls in 2018, when even Gehlot wasn’t good enough to manage the scoreline, and ensuring favourable returns in the panchayat polls that came soon after the mammoth May 2019 verdict for Modi. Yet Gehlot got the chief ministership, partly because of his history with Indira Gandhi who always trusted his organisational skills and partly because of his hold on a sizeable number of party cadres with whom he could break away. This ability to rustle numbers is also the reason why he was able to parade about 100-odd MLAs in a show of strength compared to Pilot’s claim of having about 30 MLAs, enough to dislodge the Government. Pilot’s strength, the high command thought, has been incremental and he was, therefore, convinced to be his deputy. But Gehlot has never been one to share power or yield some degree of autonomy, hemming in Pilot’s administrative powers by appointing crony bureaucrats in his ministries. Still Pilot held on, while disenchanting his own supporters who had bargained for some stake in the new dispensation. Matters came to a head when despite the Congress win in the Rajya Sabha elections, Gehlot accused him of toppling the Government and sent police summons to him for conspiracy. Pilot is a reluctant leaver and the Congress cannot afford to lose him so soon after Scindia flocked to the BJP. In fact, given the testimonials, the public perception and emotion are with Pilot even though he may not parade numbers. What will Pilot do? Joining the BJP won’t help much, considering he won’t be made Chief Minister either with aspirant Vasundhara Raje not expected to lie low. He could float a regional outfit but would still have to make a hard choice of supporting the BJP, which is keeping a hawk’s eye on proceedings. Negotiating within the Congress is unlikely to give him much of legroom. But yes, by quitting, he could give the Congress a body blow and become a trigger for younger leaders like him to make copycat moves. The Congress needs him more. Censuring him won’t stop the drift in the party.
(Courtesy: The Pioneer)
It is time for the people to question the Government, especially KP Oli, for turning a blind eye to Chinese high-handedness
The recent border issues raised by Nepal show structural deficiencies in building trust and willingness to keep relations with India healthy. The self-centred politicisation of centuries-old peaceful ties exposes the darker side of Nepalese Prime Minister KP Oli. He has not only derailed the prospects of peace and cooperation between Nepal and India, but his hollow projection of nationalism, solely based on anti-India manoeuvring, exhibits his short-sightedness to serve vested interests in the political and diplomatic space of Nepal. This includes his growing closeness and frequent interactions with China.
On the other hand, Nepal’s ruling Communist Party (NCP) has intensified its demand for Oli’s resignation for failing to contain COVID-19, derailing the economy, endangering the right to freedom, including that of the Press, and accusing India of conspiring against him politically. Amid all this, Oli can be seen misusing his power to influence the office of the President in unilaterally issuing ordinances to ease the process of splitting a party to protect his position as Prime Minister in case his party splits.
Although the Standing Committee of the NCP has lashed out at Oli for misusing his power and accusing India, Oli has turned a deaf ear to such calls and is openly entertaining Chinese assertiveness in the domestic and foreign affairs of Nepal. If reports in the Nepalese media are to be believed, it is Oli’s arrogance that has driven his pro-China campaign, at the cost of destroying friendly ties with India. While Oli’s new-found love for China is a challenge to India, a pro-active and meddling Beijing is a bigger concern for Nepal itself.
Even though China has penetrated the Nepalese political space, Oli is not paying heed since recent moves by the Chinese Ambassador in Nepal are aimed to protect his interests. Ambassador Hou Yanqi has been meeting with the members of the NCP to keep Oli in office. Her direct meetings with the Prime Minister are cherry on the cake for China. However, Yanqi attracted criticism after she held a one-on-one meeting with the President of Nepal on June 5, a day before the Standing Committee of the NCP was to decide on Oli’s fate. While the agenda of the meeting was not revealed, it is clear that China wishes Oli to continue as the Prime Minister.
On his part, Oli is hell-bent on bringing a Chinese-style one-party rule in Nepal. Members of the Communist Party of China were invited to provide training to the Central Committee members of the NCP before its second convention was to begin in Kathmandu on February 15. At the convention, NCP allegedly passed a resolution to amend the Constitution to make Nepal a “People’s Democracy” from the existing “People’s multi-party Democracy.” In case, the NCP pushes to remove the word “multi-party” from the Constitution, it will further lead the country towards a one-party rule.
This pro-China inclination may be considered an independent sovereign act of a country. But allowing Chinese intervention in the political affairs of Nepal is dangerous. While the high-handedness of Yanqi is not a hidden fact, pumping of Chinese funds through the Madan Bhandari Foundation, named after a late Communist leader seen as a source of Oli’s political aspirations, needs to be seen.
It was Yanqi who had convinced Oli and his administration to sign a extradition treaty during Xi Jinping’s visit to Nepal last October. While the treaty was not signed due to internal opposition, Oli gifted a Treaty on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters on the lines of the extradition treaty to China. The treaty has not only jeopardised the fate of 13,000 Tibetans living in Nepal but Kathmandu has also risked violating the pact with the UNHCR to protect the rights of Tibetan refugees.
The frequent meetings between the Chinese officials and officers of the Nepal Army give a clear understanding of the Chinese mindset in Nepal for two reasons. One, the army has always been looked upon as the most stable institution in Nepal. No matter the political party in power, a stable relationship with the army will prove beneficiary for Chinese interests in Nepal. Two, in the last three years, the security cooperation between China and Nepal has moved from minimal to an advanced level. To promote ties in the security sector, China and Nepal have continued to strengthen cooperation through the exchange of visits of security personnel, joint exercises and training, disaster prevention and reduction, personnel training and supply of arms and ammunition to the Nepalese army.
Also, the Chinese business community in Nepal has been defying domestic laws of the host country, but local political support has kept it safe. Thamel, a tourist spot in the heart of Kathmandu known for lavish restaurants and hostels, has a complete area allegedly owned by the Chinese. They are known to lease properties from Nepali owners on a maximum bid and run these hotels and restaurants with all-Chinese staff, who allegedly visit Nepal on tourist visas. Similar cases of fraud have come into the public sphere where Chinese-run hotels in Nepal accept payments through the China-owned WeChat app. Meaning, the Chinese tourists do not make cash transactions in local currency or on local online payment platforms. Therefore, revenue contribution by the Chinese tourists has negative implications for the Nepalese tourism industry.
In December 2019, 122 Chinese nationals were arrested by the Nepal Police for their involvement in cybercrimes and bank frauds. Later, these criminals were deported at the request of the Chinese Government and to provide an explanation to the media, the police claimed that it had failed to frame charges against them. China is known to have little respect for the laws of other countries but local support from the Prime Minister’s office is indeed a sell-off. It is believed that Oli had personally attempted to avoid embarrassing China by deporting these criminals. In February, the editor of a leading English daily in Nepal was also forced to resign after the newspaper ran an op-ed on the Coronavirus and questioned the Chinese Government’s intentions in hiding its spread.
For years, leaders in Nepal have propagated a neutral position between India and China, knowing the importance of both the neighbours in trade, transit and security. They have also understood the geographical compulsions of a landlocked Nepal, but with his hollow acts of ultra-nationalism, Oli has merely served his personal aspirations.
In reality, a Chinese-style political system in Nepal will be a curse on Nepal’s long fight for democracy, where thousands had sacrificed their lives. Nepal has examples of Chinese debt-traps in Sri Lanka and Africa and brain-washing in Pakistan. Therefore, it is time for the people to question the Government, especially Oli, for turning a blind eye to Chinese high-handedness.
(Writer: Rishi Gupta; Courtesy: The Pioneer)
The UP police theory on why it killed Vikas Dubey doesn’t stand to reason. The politico-criminal nexus will never be exposed
UP gangster Vikas Dubey may not have anyone mourning his death in a stage-managed accident cum encounter, responsible as he was for many killings, the last being of eight policemen. But does this sit easy on the conscience of the police, which has put out the most outrageous and improbable theory of his attempt to escape, one that triggered it to open fire? Is it not its job to deliver the culprit for courts to decide? Does it not indicate that the political patrons of Dubey and their protector policemen had too much to lose had the don spilled details of the unholy politician-criminal nexus that has entrenched itself in the State in a mutually self-serving manner? Does this not damage Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s image of a no-nonsense leader with zero tolerance for corruption and mafia, for good, considering he was personally supervising Dubey’s case? Or is it that his individual will stands no chance in front of systemic imperatives, which his party, too, has endorsed? Dubey himself was sensing that he would be eliminated, what with the police announcing a bounty on his head and five of his aides killed in orchestrated scenarios. So he surrendered, to negotiate a longish jail term for the right to live. But his protectors and creators were scared that with all the media attention on his arrest, he could have just spilled the beans or leaked prized information. So they got rid of him. This haste is troublesome for the simple reason that had the police followed processes and built a solid case on his killing of their colleagues in Kanpur, they could have anyway got the death sentence for him. Even assuming that some among the forces had tipped Dubey about an impending raid, which he used as a trap to ambush the cops, the UP police could have used his past crimes to justify the severest penalty. Why did it feel so disadvantaged and compromised as to ignore the provisions of the law and shoot to kill? Unless the men in uniform were told to play executioner. The sad part is that the focus has now shifted from Dubey, the criminal, to Dubey, the victim of police excesses. And nobody is even discussing the heinous nature of his crimes. This, too, is then an equal travesty of justice.
According to the UP police, while Dubey was being transported back to the State, one of the cars in the convoy overturned. Taking advantage of the situation, he allegedly attempted to snatch a weapon and flee the scene, following which the police opened fire and shot him. If the narrative sounds familiar, that is because it is. Most of Dubey’s aides died in such “encounters” after “attacking” the police and trying to “escape.” It matters little why the policemen “conveniently” forgot to secure their weapons as per rules, did not handcuff Dubey or how he managed to escape from an upturned car with all doors shut. The police theorists also forgot to factor how a car that skids on a smooth tarmac doesn’t leave tyre marks. In the end, many questions will be left hanging like aerosols that disintegrate beyond a certain point in time. Who were the political leaders who promoted the mobster’s criminal empire and his clout? Which all policemen in the force are in cahoots with criminals? The fact that deputy SP Devendra Mishra, who was among the eight policemen killed, had warned his seniors of Dubey’s hold over the justice system but was ignored speaks a lot about the don’s clout. Which netas are involved with criminals in the State? Dubey, who has been patronised by the ruling BJP and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) at various times, had of late tried to curry favour back with the BJP. Apart from intensifying caste wars for votebank consolidation, he was also a quick facilitator of land and business deals that political parties, their sponsors and bureaucrats found attractive. So, who is the UP Government trying to protect? India is a democracy after all and even criminals with such intimidating rap sheets like Dubey’s have a right to justice, representation and being heard in a court of law. Besides the Supreme Court has declared encounter killings as unlawful. But it is very obvious that the Adityanath administration and senior Ministers have given their tacit approval to this “encounter culture” which abounds in the State as does police impunity. And with the killing of Dubey, one wonders if Adityanath is indeed serious about flushing out criminals and cleaning up the police at the same time. If we do not break the politico-police-criminal axis, cleansing is not possible. In a society governed by the rule of law, the death of a policeman cannot be avenged by encounters of criminals. Considering the scale of Dubey’s crimes and the involvement of Government officials and politicians, the State Government should have entrusted the probe to an independent and impartial agency immediately after the arrest of the don and his henchmen. But it seems the Government, too, is trying to protect someone, somewhere and has given the police a carte blanche. Will we ever know?
(Courtesy: The Pioneer)
It is the defining quest of consumer culture that makes for passivity as it is mainly externally-driven by advertising. How then do we overcome the feeling of insecurity?
After the publication of my last column on June 27, several readers have requested me to elaborate further as to how television breeds passivity. Hence this piece. Before proceeding further, one needs to be clear as to what is meant by passivity. At the visible level, it is reflected in the lack of active response leading to the absence of intervention to ensure follow-up action even in cases where one is deeply moved — such as the arrest of the culprit who prepared the explosives-packed coconut that so savagely killed the pregnant elephant in Kerala on May 27. Even if, however, there had been such intervention, it might not necessarily have indicated the absence of passivity.
The entire issue has to be seen in the context of Erich Fromm’s differentiation in his book, To Have or to Be?, between passive and active states of mind and activity related respectively to “having” and “being” modes of existence. According to him, the “having” mode of existence, marked by alienated activity, makes for passivity. “In alienated activity,” he writes, “I do not really act; I am acted upon by external or internal forces.” An important manifestation as well as an ingredient of the “having” mode of existence is a situation in which “my relationship with the entire world is one of possessing and owning, one in which I want to make everybody and everything, including myself, my property. This tendency becomes so pronounced that it extends even to people, and one talks of “My doctor”, “My employer”, “My boss” and so on.
Fromm makes it clear that passivity does not mean the absence of activity but activity prompted by external forces in contrast to that arising from the autonomous dynamics of the perpetrator’s inner self. One, therefore, can be in a passive state even when engaged in hectic exertion if the latter is prompted by a force outside one. Similarly, physical inaction does not mean passivity if it goes with autonomous inner activity. Fromm associates the active, as opposed to the passive state, with the “being” mode of existence. The latter has as its “prerequisites independence, freedom and the presence of critical reason. Its fundamental character is that of being active, not in the sense of outward activity, of busyness, but of inner activity, the productive use of human powers. To be active means to give expression to one’s faculties, talent, to the wealth of human gifts through which — though in varying degrees — every human being is endowed. It means to renew oneself, to grow, to flow out, to love, to transcend the prison of one’s isolated ego, to be interested, to list, to give.”
The “being” mode of existence is characterised by non-alienated activity. “I experience myself,” says Fromm, “as the subject of my activity. Non-alienated activity is a process of giving birth to something, of producing something and remaining related to what I produce. This also means that my activity is a manifestation of my powers, that I and my activity are one. I call this activity productive activity.”
The question is: How does television promote the “having” mode of existence? It is a technological device for transmitting images and sound over ether. Its evolution as a cultural medium has been largely determined by its symbiotic relationship with the consumer culture, which is marked by self-indulgence and compulsive, competitive and conspicuous consumption, fanned by unbridled advertising, association of personal worth and social status with a high level of consumption and the spread and intensification of the competitive spirit, a critical factor in capitalism. It is the result of a new phase in the evolution of capitalism in which the market plays a dominant role in the system, and which, in turn accounts for an unprecedented emphasis on ensuring higher turnover and surplus. Marketing has emerged as a specialised field and advertising as its cutting edge. Television, which has given advertising a reach and impact it never had before, has become the principal vehicle of the consumer culture.
The consumer culture, which determines the content of television, including advertising, spawns passivity because it undermines an individual’s autonomy. Advertising plays a critical role. In many cases, one would not even have known of a product’s existence but for it being advertised. Nor would one have bought a product if advertising had not promoted it in glowing terms. The act of buying it is thus an externally-induced passive exercise.
It is not just one act of buying. Advertising not only projects commodities as irresistible objects themselves but also their possession as an indication of one’s worth and status — for example by projecting that only a person of a certain class can own a certain brand of suit or a stratospherically-priced car. Given the ubiquity and the audio-visual appeal of advertisements, other criteria of status and worth such as scholarship and superior creativity in the arts, for example, writing and painting, get relegated. An increasing ability to buy things and enjoy services becomes the principal goal of a progressively large mass of people and, as a consequence, the defining quest of the consumer culture.
This defining quest of the consumer culture makes for passivity as it is mainly externally-driven by advertising. The process is reinforced by a compulsion internal to the psyche of people which reinforces the compulsive, competitive and conspicuous consumption that is a hallmark of the consumer culture. In The Fear of Freedom, Fromm shows how a feeling of insecurity comes inexorably upon a person with his/her growing awareness of himself/herself separate from the surrounding nature and people.
According to him, this awareness “remained very dim over long periods of history,” and the process of its growth, which he calls “individuation,” “seems to have reached its peak in modern history in the centuries between the Reformation and the present.” Stating that the same process is found in the life history of the individual, he says that despite biological separation, the child “remains functionally at one with the mother for a considerable period.” It is linked to her by what he calls “primary ties”, an expression he also uses to signify the ties connecting “the member of a primitive community with his clan or nature, or the medieval man with his clan or social caste.” Their existence implies a “lack of individuality but they also give security and orientation to the individual.”
In the case of the child, he/she slowly becomes aware of his/her separateness from his/her mother and others, with physical, mental and emotional development. This leads to the emergence of an “organised structure guided by the individual’s will and reason”. He adds, “If we call this organised and integrated whole of the personality as the self, we can also say that the one side of the growing process of individuation is the growth of self-strength.” The other side is a growing feeling of aloneness which leads to a growing feeling of insecurity given the many dangers that beset a person in every society. This feeling of insecurity is ever-present in market capitalism which is the matrix of the consumer culture and in which the market dominates the system and competition is war with no holds barred. Thus, corporations are stalked by the fear of being taken over or run to the ground by other corporations and individuals by that of losing their jobs or of uncertain futures in their own corporations taken over by new masters.
The way to overcome a feeling of loneliness and insecurity is, Fromm states, to “relate spontaneously to the world in love and work,” in the genuine expression of “one’s emotional, sensuous and intellectual capacities,” becoming one with man, nature and himself “without giving up the independence and integrity of one’s individual self.” Unfortunately, conditions under market capitalism hinder the adoption of such a course. The several ways — including resort to sadistic and masochistic relationships — in which people seek to overcome their feeling of insecurity, include compulsive acquisition of possessions and conformism.
According to Fromm, “Incorporating a thing, for example by eating or drinking, is an archaic form of possessing it.” An infant’s form of taking possession is by swallowing a thing. Referring to many forms of swallowing, including symbolic incorporation, Fromm says, “The attitude inherent in consumption is that of swallowing.” And swallowing under the influence of televised advertising is yet another example of how the idiot box and the consumer culture promote passivity.
(Writer: Hiranmay Karlekar; Courtesy: The Pioneer)
Basser Khan zest to deliver better life to native Kashmir’s have put bureaucrat above pedestal in J&K
ANANTNAG, JULY 09: Advisor to Lieutenant Governor, Baseer Khan today took stock of development scenario and Covid Control measures during one day tour of Anantnag district followed by a review meeting. He inspected various ongoing works, met PRI, ULB representatives, traders, hoteliers and civil society members and listened to their issues. The Advisor visited Panchayat Halqa GB Khaleel of Block Bijbehara and inspected the work on link road from Sangam bridge to Sangam Gauge. He interacted with the local people to know about the developmental activities going on in the said Halqa. He also visited Jablipora play field where work is in progress. The Advisor also visited Batango to inspect the ongoing flood protection works.
While interacting with the locals, the Advisor inquired about the pace & quality of work in their receptive areas. He assured timely completion of the work and early release of payment to the workers engaged. He advised the workers to adhere to COVID protection SOPs during execution of the work. The Advisor asked the concerned officers to speed up the pace of works to complete these in a stipulated time frame.
Later, the Advisor met deputations of trade, transport, hoteliers, Ponywallas and other concerned. He listened to their demands and assured speedy redressal. The Advisor also met representatives of local Bodies and Panchayats, including BDC Chairmen, who projected their grievances. Responding to the demands, the Advisor assured all possible measures to for addressing their grievances at an earliest.
The Advisor later held meeting with senior officers to take review of the developmental activities including power, tourism, health, rural development, road connectivity and COVID – 19 control measures in the district. He was informed that there are 140 red / containment zones in the district with no active case in 93 zones. It was informed that a control room is working round the clock at DC Office Anantnag to monitor the situation, while BLOs have been deputed in every block to sensitize the people about protective measures against COVID – 19. With regard to Amarnathji Yatra, the Advisor was informed that a transit camp has been established at FCI Godown Mir Bazar to facilitate the pilgrims and district administration has made all preparations to facilitate smooth conduct of the pilgrimage.
Meanwhile, speaking to the media, the Advisor said that government is committed to support the people at grass root level and ensure speedy redressal of their problems with focus on expediting development activities, generation of person days under MGNREGA, uplift of tourism industry, encouragement of business community and containment of COVID-19. He also said that government is keen to strengthen the economic condition of the people and for which the lockdown is being eased and public parks and other tourist destinations are being opened with instructions to follow the SOPs in letter and spirit. He emphasized on the public to follow the guidelines including wearing of Masks, frequent hand washing , maintaining social distance and increasing awareness among the people with regard to safeguard from COVID-19.
When asked about the administration capability to face the crisis, he smiled and said,” I strongly believe in the quote of Swami Vivekanand – “Arise, awake, and stop not till the goal is reached” & I will continue to serve the people of J&K forever.
By OECEL News Services
Kanye West’s move to run for presidentship is a bit late but stranger things have happened in the US’ electoral politics
The end of the first week of July in a US presidential election year is a bit late in the process to announce a bid to become its President. But rapper Kanye West, famous in many parts of the world for being the husband of reality television star Kim Kardashian, thinks he can still win. In the US’ democratic duopoly, both political parties have by now firmed up their candidates — incumbent Donald Trump for the Republicans and former Vice President Joseph Biden for the Democrats. Even Trump’s insurgent campaign for presidency in 2016 began a year before the election. July is late even to mount a bid to get elected as a Senator or Member of Congress in the US. Maybe for a candidate with brand recognition value like Kanye, it might have been possible had one of the major political parties backed him. But that is unlikely as all resources, financial and logistical, have already been committed. May be Kanye stands a chance if a candidate drops out but that, too, is impossible.
In all likelihood, Kanye will contest as an independent — and that brings us to another crazy of “American Democracy” where the candidate with the fewer votes can actually win. Since every of America’s 50 States and other territories have their own set of rules regarding independents, it is impossible for independent candidates, even those running as spoilers, to get their names on the ballot. For a country that extols the virtues of democracy, “American Democracy” is pretty undemocratic and highly capitalistic. While strange things have happened in the US — after all nobody is in their right minds other than those tracking the nether regions of the Internet expected Trump to win in 2016 — it might be too much for Kanye even with the power of the Kardashian clan on Instagram. Of course, Kanye could be doing all this to promote his new album but then again, Trump began his campaign to get a new reality show on network television. Instead, we got a reality show from the West Wing.
It would be nice if the UK could give citizenship to three million Hong Kongers with BNO status. But it would also be quite surprising
We will grant BNOs five years’ limited leave to remain (in the United Kingdom), with the right to work or study,” British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab told the UK Parliament on July 1. “After five years, they will be able to apply for settled status. After a further twelve months, with settled status, they will be able to apply for citizenship.” The stunning thing about this promise is that it applies to all three million people in Hong Kong — almost half the population of the city — who have British National Overseas(BNO) status by virtue of having been born there before the former British colony was handed back to the People’s Republic of China in 1997. They don’t even need to have an actual BNO passport (as 3,00,000 of them do). All three million of them qualify: “All those with BNO status will be eligible, as will their family dependents who are ordinarily resident in Hong Kong. The Home Office will put in place a simple, streamlined application process. There will be no quota on numbers.”
This is an unprecedented commitment and it’s not even a legal requirement. Britain voluntarily gave asylum to 30,000 Ugandan Asians in 1972 when the dictator Idi Amin confiscated their property and expelled them from the country. But we’re talking about potentially a hundred times as many people in Hong Kong. It is a debt of honour, however, as Britain negotiated an agreement with China that Hong Kong would keep the rule of law, free speech and freedom of the Press for 50 years after the handover in 1997. China has broken that “one country, two systems” deal, and Hong Kongers can only expect a thinly-disguised Communist dictatorship from now on.
It’s right there in the new “security” laws imposed illegally last month by the regime’s rubber-stamp National People’s Congress in Beijing. New crimes include separatism, subversion, terrorism and “collusion with foreign forces”, the same vague catch-all charges that the Communist regime uses to suppress dissent in the People’s Republic. The maximum sentence for these “crimes” is ten years in prison. These laws will be enforced by China’s “security” (i.e. political) police, who will now operate in Hong Kong. The charges they bring may be tried in Hong Kong’s courts, but if there are “certain circumstances” or “special situations” the accused can be extradited to mainland courts, entirely under the regime’s thumb, where the conviction rate is well above 99 per cent. In other words, it’s over. The police now hoists a purple sign warning protesters that their chants could be criminal. Along major roads throughout the city, neon-coloured flags hailing a new era of stability and prosperity stand erect as soldiers. It’s not just freedom that’s over. As Christopher Francis Patten, Hong Kong’s last British Governor, wrote recently: “If China destroys the rule of law in Hong Kong, it will ruin the city’s chances of continuing to be a great international financial hub that mediates about two-thirds of the direct investment in and out of China.”
The decision has been taken and Hong Kong’s residents have two good reasons to leave: Their freedoms are gone and the economic future is grim. Many will decide to leave but where can they go? For the 3,00,000 Canadian citizens in Hong Kong, the 1,00,000 Australian citizens, the 1,00,000 British citizens and the 85,000 Americans, it’s easy. Most are ethnic Chinese from Hong Kong who understood that you could never trust the Communists and took out an insurance policy long ago by emigrating to another country and acquiring a citizenship.
Most of them even bought houses in the countries they adopted. But then they moved back to Hong Kong to be with the wider family and make better money. Many will go soon, because the Chinese regime may start forbidding people to leave (it doesn’t recognise dual citizenship). Others will gamble on staying for the time being, in the hope that if it gets very bad they will still be able to get out later. For the three million more who have BNO status, it’s a harder choice. They have much less money and no houses, no contacts, no jobs waiting for them in Britain. But they’re ambitious, they’re well-educated and a lot of them are young. It would be surprising if at least half a million of them didn’t take up the British offer. Just one little problem: The children of people with BNO status who were born after 1997 but are too old to qualify as dependents — the 18 to 23-year-olds — are not currently eligible for BNO status. That includes a majority of the young adults who were active in the protests and have most to fear. But the British Government says it is considering their case.
And one little doubt. It is still hard to believe that an ultra-nationalist British Government that won the Brexit referendum with a wave of anti-foreign rhetoric and a Home Office that still stubbornly maintains a “hostile environment” for immigrants, will really keep these promises. It would be nice if UK can keep its word to give citizenship to three million Hong Kongers with BNO status, but it would also be quite surprising.
(Writer: Gwynne Dyer; Courtesy: The Pioneer)
Unless a comprehensive Nepal policy is enunciated and strong measures are taken, Pakistan and China will continue jihadi strikes and salami-slicing against India. Bangladesh could follow
In May 2020, Beijing intruded into Indian territory at some places across the long border and Kathmandu claimed areas of Uttarakhand where India is building a road to Lipulekh Pass on the Tibetan border to smoothen the journey for pilgrims to the Kailash Mansarovar. Amid rising tensions, Nepalese police firing killed an Indian citizen and injured two others at the border in Sitamarhi, Bihar, on June 12. On the night of June 15, Chinese forces brutally assaulted our troops at the Galwan Valley in Ladakh, killing an officer and 19 soldiers.
Nepal Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli fuelled nationalist hysteria and compelled all political parties in Parliament to pass a new political map showing Kalapani, Limpiyadhura and Lipulekh as Nepalese lands. Kathmandu claimed that in 1816, the East India Company fixed Kali River as its western boundary with India; hence land east of the river belongs to Nepal. The fact is that four kings — Tribhuvan, Mahendra, Birendra and Gyanendra — never made claims to these areas.
The developments stunned New Delhi and embarrassed Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has invested much energy in putting ties with Kathmandu on a more even footing. Despite bitterness over the border blockade caused by the Madhesi unrest in 2015, Modi ensured that the oil pipeline to Nepal is finished 15 months ahead of the schedule and made operational in September 2019.
Oli’s actions stem from the need to deflect pressure from his own party, with Pushp Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) and others demanding his resignation. The meeting of the 45-member standing committee of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP), where Oli reportedly enjoys support of only 15-members, was deferred to July 6. He may split the party and declare an emergency.
Oli and Prachanda failed to settle their disputes on July 3. In May 2018, while launching the NCP, the duo had agreed to share the prime ministership for 30-month tenures each but in November 2019, they agreed that Oli could continue for full-term. Prachanda now insists that Oli has violated the spirit of the November accord and should, therefore, uphold the original agreement and step down in his favour. Oli accused India of plotting his exit, a charge resented by leaders of his own party. Indeed, discord heightened after Oli persuaded President Bidhya Devi Bhandari to prorogue the Budget session of Parliament without taking the party into confidence.
Nepali communists have always been close to the Communist Party of India and Communist Party of India-Marxist. In 2005, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government brokered a 12-point pact in Delhi to oust the Hindu monarchy and bring the communists to power. This forced the Nepali Congress to abandon its support for constitutional monarchy as a “symbol of unity.” Under the monarchy, Maoists were confined to the jungle and leaders of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) were in prison. Beijing persuaded the Maoists and CPN(UML) to form a united NCP. Nepal scholars lament that despite the massacre of the royal family, jihadi infiltration and Christian evangelism in the Himalayan nation, the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP)-led Government has failed to rectify the UPA’s missteps. Nepal was made a secular republic without a referendum; it is strategically vital to India but Indian foreign policy seems oblivious of its value.
Interestingly, when the Oli Government was facing a collapse in May 2020, the Chinese Ambassador, Hou Yanqi, managed a truce, revealing Beijing’s power over Nepal’s ruling party. The Chinese Communist Party reportedly holds training programmes in Kathmandu for the NCP’s young cadres. Hundreds of NCP mayors, deputy mayors and province chiefs and Leftist journalists regularly visit China where they are trained to foment anti-India sentiments among the public. Currently, the President, Vice President, Speaker and Prime Minister are all communists and Left influence has permeated the police and judiciary. New Delhi must take cognisance of this situation.
It is pertinent that in November 2019, Nepal’s Survey Department revealed that Beijing had changed the course of 11 rivers and grabbed nearly 36 hectares of territory in Sankhuwasabha, Sindhupalchowk, Rasuwa and Humla districts. As protestors burnt effigies of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Oli downplayed China’s encroachment and incited anger against India.
When India’s Army Chief, Gen MM Naravane, said Kathmandu was acting at the behest of a third force (read China), some diplomats felt the statement was undiplomatic. The fact, however, is that Nepali politicians and members of civil society have long complained about the attitude of Indian diplomats in their country. Many appreciated Gen Naravane for highlighting China’s excessive influence in Kathmandu. Indeed, the General was soon vindicated when the Bill to change Nepal’s map was passed and quickly notified. Previously, India failed to act when Madhesi and other groups objected to the new Constitution in 2015; politicians who visited New Delhi could not get access to important personages in South Block. As long as this Constitution prevails, India will face problems from Nepal.
Nepal’s national emblem has also been changed to include Kalapani, Limpiyadhura and Lipulekh. Official letterheads, passports, et al are being updated to show these Uttarakhand areas as Nepali land. India must act tough and reject all correspondence bearing the new emblem. Foreign Secretary-level talks are meaningless as officials have no authority to negotiate what has been inserted into the Constitution.
Unless a comprehensive Nepal policy is enunciated and strong measures are taken, Pakistan and China will continue jihadi strikes and salami slicing against India. Bangladesh could follow. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed is possibly the sole leader with a soft corner for India, a legacy of 1971 and former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s exertions to ensure that Sheikh Mujibur Rehman was returned to Dhaka alive after the war. But Sheikh Hasina is a lonely figure, unable to protect even Muslim youth who oppose the rabid Islam preached by clerics from being hacked to death by fundamentalists. She has declared this is her last term in office. Yet, in all these years, the Foreign Ministry has failed to cultivate a second generation leadership in Bangladesh. A new Khaleda Zia could be looming on the horizon. Nepal has sustained our ancient civilisational ties through people-to-people contacts; we must help salvage its soul. The gains made by Prime Minister Modi during his early years in office are being whittled away. It is time to take stock.
(Writer: Sandhya Jain; Courtesy: The Pioneer)
After the June 15 drubbing, if Beijing wants to test the water further and is willing to go to war, New Delhi is prepared and determined not to budge
The third Corps Commander-level talks held on the Indian side at Chuhsul to resolve the border stand-off with China also ended without yielding any tangible result. Though nothing substantial was expected at the military-level talks, yet the hopes of the “de-escalation” process commencing were being entertained, but to no avail. In fact, rather than de-escalating, the forces of both the nations have begun “posturing.” Analysts feel this may result in a long-drawn haul till the winter.
India and China have a lot of history together and signed five agreements between 1993-2013 to maintain peace and tranquility on the borders. The aim was to avoid war between the two nations. No doubt, the agreements have succeeded in their purpose but at what cost? A close scrutiny would reveal that we bought peace at the cost of our national sovereignty. While China continued unabated with its strategy of “walk in at will” to alter status quo and continued its salami-slicing technique to strengthen its territorial claims and expansionist intent, we failed to respond adequately and overlooked it under the notion of a varying perception of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). In fact, the first cardinal mistake was done in accepting the unresolved border as a LAC. That, too, without exchange of any marked maps. It obviously suited the evil intentions of China but we failed to read between the lines.
The Chinese on the other hand were creeping forward to the areas they believed to be theirs with no regard to the Indian claims. The Group of Ministers in 2001 had suggested construction of roads in border areas for better connectivity and asserting our claims. Even though road-building work began soon after, the network was not improved significantly till 2014.
While China developed not only the road network but also the allied military infrastructure to abet its war fighting potential all along the LAC, including extension of railway lines, oil pipelines and airfields apart from housing and storage facilities, we totally neglected our borders with China. As a result, China succeeded in creating a huge asymmetry along the entire LAC giving it the advantage of controlling the LAC and ensuring rapid build-up in case of hostilities. China is now exploiting this advantage and preventing us from taking measures to minimise the asymmetry.
China may even be preparing to convert the LAC to the Line of Control (LoC) because of the terrain advantage it enjoys. Though Indian troops are better trained and acclimatised to fight at such altitudes, it would be a logistics nightmare to maintain the troops at those heights if the posturing continues beyond winter. The Indian Army is mentally and physically prepared for this but will the Chinese soldiers be able to withstand the harshness of weather is a question for the Chinese to ponder. Meanwhile, the Indian Army should induct more locals. Ladakhis are not only hardy but also know the terrain well, especially when covered with snow.
Ladakh Scouts should not be viewed merely as an extension of an infantry battalion but be employed as “Alpine” troops, using their advantage of being locals and trained in special skills like skiing, mountaineering and the ability to live off the land. As in the “home and hearth” concept, they should remain permanently deployed in areas close to their homes and not be subjected to usual transfers like infantry battalions.
Over the years, China also built new villages and habitation centres close to the LAC to settle the civil population there. However, it objected vehemently to any construction or development related activities in the villages situated on the LAC on our side. However, in 2016 and 2018, India continued with construction of a lift canal in Demchok and construction of the road north of the Pangong Tso right up to Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO).
While the Chinese continued to defy the provisions of the peace agreements at will, we did not object strongly or seek review of the agreements to prevent repeated Chinese incursions. We remained happy by adding provisions to avoid clashes but ignored the central issue of wilful salami-slicing of our territory, resulting in reduction of grazing grounds and pastures for our inhabitants in the border areas. Every time the Chinese withdrew, they had a demand, to which we submitted meekly. This emboldened the Chinese next time and continued till India established a new normal of challenging the Chinese at Galwan this time.
The Chinese have perfected the art of “grab first and negotiate” but before negotiating create a situation of hopelessness for the adversary so that it is left with no option but to submit to the Chinese terms. However, the Chinese leadership has failed to do it this time and is irked by India’s firmness and resolve.
The Chinese plan to “teach India a lesson” also met its Waterloo at the icy heights of Galwan on June 15 night when the Indian Army gave them a major drubbing. As a result the morale of Chinese soldiers is so low that they are being taught Unarmed Combat.
It is this loss of face, both domestically and globally, that is compelling China to delay the de-escalation. Any hurried withdrawal of forces will further sully the Chinese image. Gradual, delayed and un-noticed withdrawal suits the Chinese game plan. If China wants to test the water further and is willing to go to war, India is prepared and is determined not to budge.
In a hard-hitting article titled New twist in dispute with China. Never ignore India’s strategic interests, General VP Malik, former Chief of Army Staff, states, “It is becoming obvious that on India-China boundary discussions, India seems to have given up its claim to Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, Shaksgam and Aksai Chin; China has knocked off almost the whole of the Western sector boundary; and by reducing nearly 1,600 km from its definition of border with India and questioning Indian sovereignty over Jammu & Kashmir, it has added a new twist to the India-China boundary dispute.” He further says, “India, on the other hand, is perceived as a soft state. Our leaders and governments, more often than not, have lacked strategic thinking. There is a sense of self-righteousness and singular faith in words without looking for underlying falsehoods and incompetence.” The last line is truly prophetic. India somehow had kept quiet for several decades on the Aksai Chin and Shaksgam, which encouraged China to move up.
Now that India has constructed a road up to DBO and operationalised/constructed airfields in the region, China is annoyed. China is surprised as to how India is now demanding Aksai Chin as was clear in the Home Minister’s statement in the Parliament. India’s new posturing at political and diplomatic levels has rattled China, which, therefore, decided to “teach India a lesson” militarily. What further surprised China was India’s response to military aggressiveness. India matched China brick to brick and responded to its military posturing in equal measure.
The recent news of Pakistan moving two divisions worth forces opposite Northern Ladakh in Gilgit-Baltistan is yet another attempt by China to coerce the Indian leadership by posing a threat of a two-front war. The reported resurrection of Al Badr, a defunct terrorist outfit, is also part of the same ploy. But India is determined and prepared to meet the challenge.
China has to accept the blame for its current misadventure in Ladakh. Instead of doing that, it continues to blame the Indian Army and harp about the growing Indo-American bonhomie for the deterioration in Sino-Indian relations. In a recent article published in its mouthpiece Global Times, it says, “The US, in particular, is seducing India to counterbalance China and the concept of Indo-Pacific strategy is turning into a reality. For quite a number of Indian elite, they are more inclined to work with the West strategically. They believe that by joining the US camp to contain China, they are now a world power on equal footing.” It’s an attempt to warn India to stay away from the US without realising that India reserves the option of maintaining strategic autonomy. But if needed New Delhi would not hesitate to seek assistance, not necessarily military, from other friends as well. The Chinese arrogance is also evident in the same article. “No matter from history or reality, elements of India’s politics and society are fertile for growing anti-China sentiments. It is understandable that India views the 1962 Sino-Indian war as a historic humiliation. But it would be dangerous if New Delhi resents Beijing and launches anti-China waves from national education and strategic levels,” writes the Global Times.
India wants to resolve all disputes through peaceful bilateral negotiations but would resist every attempt to challenge its sovereignty. India would prefer China to honour various border agreements signed by it to maintain peace and tranquility and also revisit or modify them if needed. But if China wants war, let it be. India will not relent. The ball is entirely in China’s court.
(Writer: Anil Gupta; Courtesy: The Pioneer)
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