Punjab and Maharashtra have taken the Centre head on by contesting farm Acts and CBI’s rights. Will this be the new trend?
Two States are taking up the fight for federal rights against the unilateralism of the Centre — Punjab and Maharashtra — showing an emerging trend of a new Opposition strategy, that of politically counteracting the ruling BJP in States controlled by it and compelling a discussion on consensus politics. So Punjab has challenged the three farm Acts and brought its own amendment Bills while Maharashtra has withdrawn its consent to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to conduct probes in the State. Constitutionally speaking, the Punjab Government would have to wait for the Bills to be sent to the Governor and then to the President, who, acting as he does on the advice of the Union Government, is unlikely to give his assent. Then the State Government could take legal recourse in the Supreme Court. Similarly, while a State’s consent is needed in pursuing CBI investigations, it cannot deter those that are ordered by the Supreme Court. So more than political point-scoring, in real terms, the sore point would remain. But it would be worth a fight. The Punjab Government is basing its legal argument on the fact that agriculture is part of the State List and the Centre has no authority over it. The latter contends that since the three Acts deal with the trade and commerce of farmers’ produce, its jurisdiction is valid under the Concurrent List. The Punjab Government’s amended Bills seek to address the fears of State farmers about being forced to sell their produce at less than the Minimum Support Price (MSP) in an open market. They seek to ensure that growers are not browbeaten by the heft of food corporations and that the older system continues without being weakened by a parallel market. The first amendment says that the sale of wheat and paddy (which are the State’s cash crops) will be valid only if the seller pays a price equal to or greater than the MSP announced by the Central Government and that any violation would be punishable. The second Bill reintroduces the market fees or licences for private players outside the Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) mandis, which the Central law has abolished. This, it says, will be used to create a distress fund for small and marginal farmers. The third Bill attacks the central Act that gives unlimited power of stocking essential commodities to traders and reassigns that right back to Punjab, arguing that production, supply, and distribution of goods is also a State subject. The State Government is also planning to use the amorphous definition of a “trade area”, where farmers, traders and e-transaction platforms are given the freedom to deal in farmers’ produce without any restrictions, to cover the whole State. It is a given that the Centre rushed through the farm Acts, packaging them with good intentions but skimming over the devil in the detail and glossing over the practicalities of implementation. And the farmers, who have so far operated in some sort of regulatory mechanism and built trust within it, would indeed be vulnerable in the absence of guaranteed protections or an elaborate explainer, a fact that would but naturally be used by food majors to their advantage. The Agriculture Minister’s refusal to meet stakeholders or even assure them in person, considering that the BJP’s own farmers’ organisations have raised objections, has only made the Government look more brazen than concerned. Why, instead of being vague about the continuity of MSP, could it not say that “notwithstanding the provisions, no trade transactions should take place below the notified MSP?” That would have allayed the anxieties of farmers. Now, the patchy resistance across States would mean that there would not be a holistic understanding of reforms or their implementation. Had the Government followed the consultative and inclusive model that it used to get the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rolling and referred the Bills through parliamentary committees, things would not have come to such a pass. Many would argue that agriculture merely makes up for 16 per cent of the GDP but farmers make up a majority of every party’s voter base and should deserve a listen. They are having it rough anyway, battling high input costs, low productivity and falling pick-up prices. A policy pushed without taking them into confidence will always run the risk of being hijacked by populism and politics.
With the Centre’s persistent needling, the Maharashtra Government is following other Opposition States in refusing permission for CBI probes. Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan had withdrawn general consent earlier, calling such inquiry interventionist and politically motivated. The Modi regime did follow some form of cooperative federalism, GST being a prime example, in its first run post-2014. But after the mammoth victory of 2019, it has begun appropriating federal space, be it under the guise of monitoring Centrally-sponsored schemes, using the ruse of national security and interest and manufacturing consensus by co-opting self-serving regional players, like the Biju Janata Dal, to push through major policies despite the lack of numbers in the Rajya Sabha. Post-COVID, the coercive federalism gave way to consultative federalism again as health is a State subject. And now that most States have evolved after managing a public health crisis, they are becoming more confident about asserting themselves and carving out their own policy positions vis-à-vis the Centre. The spate of resolutions in Assemblies against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act was just the beginning. And if more States are to override Central laws with their own legislative framework, then the Opposition is hell-bent on proving why India is a Union of States.
In today’s modern, digital India, the caste factor and group identity further accentuate a dominant-submissive gender role culture, especially in the northern States
The Hathras incident forced us all to relive the horrific Nirbhaya gang rape. What stands out in public memory is the burning of the Dalit girl’s mortal remains like “trash” in the dead of the night, with policemen standing guard. Official figures confirm that on an average 87 rape cases (ten among them are of Dalit girls/women) are reported daily in India. There has also been a 7.3 per cent rise in all crimes against women, with Uttar Pradesh (UP) registering the highest number of cases, accounting for 14 per cent of the total incidents in the country, says a National Crime Records Bureau, 2019, report.
In 2018, a Thomson Reuters Foundation Survey labelled India “as the most dangerous country for women…where rape, marital rape, sexual assault, harassment, female infanticide go on unabated.” Many dismissed the report as being “perceptual rather than based on actual experiences”, while the Government declined to comment on the findings.
Sadly, violence against women is globally pervasive, and one in three women (35.6 per cent) has been a victim of physical and/or sexual violence either by intimate partners or non-partners in their lifetime. The prevalence of intimate partner violence was found to be the highest (37.7 per cent) in the South-East Asian region, says a 2017 World Health Organisation study.
Many researchers ascribe “toxic masculinity”, which breeds sexual aggression, as the outcome of an unequal power relationship, more common in cultures that foster the notion of male superiority vis a vis the socio-cultural inferiority of women. Kamala Bhasin, a social activist, says that “in deep-rooted patriarchy, a boy inherits a sense of entitlement from his upbringing, whereas a girl becomes a victim of stereotyping as the weaker sex. The existing imbalance in gender relations has much to do with violence against women.” Shockingly, in today’s modern, tech-savvy digital India, the caste factor and group identity further accentuate a dominant-submissive gender role culture, especially in the northern States.
Ravi Verma, Director, International Center for Research on Women, Asia, says, “A strong sense of impunity among higher caste men, who consider dehumanising women’s bodies as an ultimate expression of control and power, is the reason behind continued violence against women from marginalised and poor communities, including Dalits.” In 2019, among the 3,500 Dalit women raped in India, one third of them were from Rajasthan and UP.
But, beyond the socio-cultural structures, studies have also indicated a negative correlation between the sex ratio and the hike in sexual violence cases. Now, India, is a land of “missing women”, contributing one in three to the world’s missing girls due to sex selection, both pre and post-natal, says a United Nations Population Fund, 2020 report. Rape cases in India rose to 32,033 in 2019 from 2,487 in 1971, an astronomical jump of 1,188 per cent, while the sex ratio registered a negative growth of 0.65 per cent, plummeting from 930 girls in 1971 to 924 girls per 1,000 boys this year.
Moreover, the rising rate of sexual violence is likely to create a further dip in the sex ratio, especially in the Hindi belt. A recent field report of the Indian Council of Social Science Research in UP and Haryana corroborated that “there is an increasing trend for son preference in the face of growing crimes against women, as a male child is culturally viewed as a protector of the family honour, thus safeguarding the chastity of daughters from the unsafe public spaces.”
Now, if public places are “unsafe”, then how safe is the home for Indian women? Certainly, it is not. The majority of the violence-related cases under the Indian Penal Code have been registered under cruelty by husband or his relatives (30.9 per cent), followed by assault on a woman with the intent to outrage her modesty (21.8 per cent) and abduction of a woman (17.9 per cent). India’s criminal law doesn’t proscribe sexual violence by a husband unless the wife is under 18 years of age, and there is no culpability for marital rape. Another unique dimension of crimes against women in India is that 85 per cent of sexual assaults go unreported as there is a high share of known offenders, even if one excludes marital rape. An analysis of demographic and health surveys from 43 developing countries from 2010 onwards revealed that women’s reporting of sexual violence is very low in India.
Nonetheless, the Nirbhaya case was a watershed moment in our criminal justice system. Asha Devi, Nirbhaya’s mother, while recalling her seven-year-long struggle in nailing the perpetrators, said, “The road to justice is very difficult, arduous and also hopeless. If you don’t have police support, even if the death penalty is handed out, it has to move through a tortuous process and is hardly implemented.”
Unfortunately, the post-Nirbhaya changes in criminal law failed to make much of a dent in the justice dispensation system. The conviction rate of offenders remains as low as 27.2 per cent and is only five per cent in case of the death penalty, though rape constitutes 11.5 per cent of the total crime statistics. Many activists lament that the cases get weakened by easy grant of bail to the rape accused. “Even though it is a non-bailable offence, evidence gets tampered and extraneous influences dilute the process of investigation, while the police remain hand in glove … as happened in the Hathras case, when it more or less acted like an accomplice and not as the upholder of rule of law,” they point out.
Meanwhile, the much-awaited police reforms get frozen in political cold storage. Even the Supreme Court’s directives in 2006, which included separation of investigation and law order functions to make the police more “people-centric rather than ruler-centric” are yet to hit the ground. A committee to review the existing criminal justice system also ran into rough weather when a group of women lawyers protested over the non-representation of women on it “when its remit is largely to reform sexual offences.”
So, how does one fight it out? Mohini Giri, former Chairperson, National Women Commission, opines that the issue has no tailor-made solutions. “The law cannot be the only instrument. What is needed is a strong and supportive family, an awakened civil society and coordinated action among the various service providers in society to nurture a girl child. We also need a complete overhauling of our educational inputs to detoxify the overdose of stereotyping for bringing in attitudinal changes, both in the oppressed and the oppressors,” she says. While Bhasin emphasises that “it is high time that we focus on men and talk in the active voice, like why a man commits a rape, rather than pushing the victimisation theory of why and how a woman has been raped.”
Well, women across the world raised their voices against sexual violence under several banners like #MeToo, #TimesUp, #NotOneMore et al. In today’s pandemic-ravaged world, the alarming spike in gender violence has generated a global movement #orangetheworld and #generationequality to wage an all-out war against rape. Like before, India cannot remain untouched by it.
(The writer is a retired Indian Information Service Officer and a media educator)
Hyderabad usually evokes images of nawabs, Nizams and royalty on one hand and information technology prowess on the other. But for the last few days, the city, famous for its flawless pearls, has made it to national news for all the wrong reasons. Heavy flooding in the wake of incessant rains has led to the loss of 50 lives besides causing enormous damage to property. Hyderabad has always been a dynamic destination for multinational corporations and Indian businesses alike to set up shop. This is due to the pleasant weather and enabling systems set up by the Government that fast-track foreign investments. Plus, being the de-facto information technology hub of the country, it has an abundant supply of talent, manpower and money. These factors are helping the city score over traditional choices like Delhi, Bengaluru and Mumbai.
Not only corporations, families and individuals, too, are increasingly choosing to make the city their home. According to the Mercer’s Quality of Living Ranking 2019 survey, Hyderabad has been adjudged as the best Indian city to live in for the fifth year in a row. With a global ranking of 143, it left Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai and Delhi behind to capture the tag. Mercer’s findings were echoed by the survey of 34 cities done by holidify.com which placed it as the best city to live in with four out of five points. The survey highlighted the dual charm of a city steeped in history combined with all the attractions and facilities of world-class new development like the Financial District and HITEC City.
However, it is the old part of the city which is now turning out to be the root of all problems in this otherwise splendid metro. The new residential and commercial areas of Hyderabad have always had a relatively better-designed civic infrastructure, drainage and sewage system. They have a comparatively improved layout that consciously steered clear of low-lying lake beds, dried river beds and other areas, where flooding was normal in the event of heavy rains, and opened upstream reservoir gates. But the same cannot be said of the old city area, which still survives on sewage and drainage infrastructure built in the early 19th century. As these relics of a bygone era crumble, the citizens are paying the price for it.
The Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) has largely done a good job of handling the civic infrastructure of the twin cities of Hyderabad and Secunderabad, including the old city areas. But the unplanned development and construction that happened in the early 1980s and 1990s has come to haunt it today.
There was unfettered development on canals, lake beds and other water bodies that should have otherwise been left untouched. The water bodies of a city are its margin spaces that not only play a critical role in absorbing unexpected flood waters but also protect its ecosystem and biodiversity by providing habitat for a variety of flora and fauna. The moment these bodies are encroached upon, urban flooding becomes an obvious outcome. Over the last few years, many of our metros, such as Mumbai and Chennai, have experienced the painful reality of urban flooding. This year it was Hyderabad’s turn. The fact that the city witnessed such huge strides of development has not eased its experience with the recent floods.
Another aspect that is making things difficult is the natural undulations that abound. These varied levels in the city’s topography result in the water gravitating towards low-lying areas with exceptional force, sweeping away whatever lies in its path. The twin cities need to quickly hammer out a long-term strategy to handle weather extremities in the future, since these floods may not be the last that Hyderabad will see.
The GHMC needs to resuscitate the water bodies so that it can fall back upon them in case of heavy rains and floods. Additionally, the water drainage system must be interlinked with the rainwater harvesting network so that excess water is seamlessly channelised into large capacity underground storage facilities. This can later be utilised to irrigate public parks, roadside trees and so on. The municipal corporation will do well to take cues from other metros in the world that are handling similar problems. Many cities in Europe for instance have adopted channel and pipeline systems that carry excess water to the nearby rivers. They have also strengthened embankments so that the increased water load is handled without any undue concerns.
No matter how glitzy or well-ranked a city is, without an efficient network of drains, a proper sewage disposal system and rain water harvesting, it can be brought to its knees within days. That is what has happened in Hyderabad.
(The writer is an environmental journalist)
If Universal Health Coverage has to be achieved, there needs to be less dependence on DOT and greater acceptance of VOT and other patient-centric treatment modes for TB
After being diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB), Niyam Mohammed was asked to follow the standard Directly Observed Treatment Short Course (DOTS). In the beginning, he abided by the procedure, which meant taking the TB medication in front of a DOTS provider (usually a healthcare worker or volunteer). This was done to ensure compliance and completion of the treatment and also to prevent the development of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DRTB). But for him, visiting the healthcare centre for medicines and registration of compliance daily meant missing many hours of work. As a construction worker, Mohammed’s survival depended on his daily earnings and unable to afford this loss of income, he slowly became irregular, not just in his visits to the healthcare centre but also in treatment adherence. So, it wasn’t surprising when he was detected as having DRTB during a door-to-door TB screening programme in March. Realising that counselling and behaviour change was needed to get him back on track, ZMQ Global, a social enterprise using technology for development, which conducted the screening drive, took him under its wing.
Once the team understood that Mohammed was more likely to adhere to the regime if he didn’t have to miss work, he was given an innovative Patient’s Active Compliance and Treatment (PACT) tool kit, a patient-centric mobile solution designed especially for people with DRTB. By using PACT, the construction worker didn’t have to miss work to access treatment because he no longer had to present himself in front of a healthcare worker daily. Instead, he could show that he was following the regime by clicking a video while having his medicines and use the app to send the video to the TB unit located in his primary healthcare centre.
Just as Mohammed began his treatment using Video Observed Therapy (VOT), a countrywide lockdown due to the Covid pandemic was announced. But the worker knew that he didn’t have to worry about access to treatment and care because he had been given medication to last for two months. More importantly, the patient knew that he could use the app to consult the doctor via tele-conferencing if he had any problems.
At a time when 51 per cent TB patients in India, who were surveyed by the Global Coalition of TB Activists, said that they were less likely to seek care during the outbreak because they feared contracting the Coronavirus, ensuring continued access to DRTB care and management is critical. By leveraging tele-medicine and patient-centric mobile tools to put treatment and care directly into the hands of patients, PACT has been able to enhance adherence support.
It was after extensive research and trials that ZMQ Global hit upon a three-pronged strategy to address the issue. Using its expertise in developing technology solutions, it first created a patient tool kit. This comprises a component which reminds DRTB patients of the need for taking their medication daily and adherence reporting through the VOT technology. It has customised data of the patient with personalised details like the history of previous illnesses, the treatment regimen, test reports and so on.
This ensures that all information is accessed seamlessly by the healthcare providers and the patients, too, have access to their treatment history and follow-up schedules. Second, the app allows patients to remotely connect with the TB Unit (TBU) or Senior Treatment Supervisor (STS) for consultation or emergency care using the video connect tool. This means that visits to the TBU can be substantially reduced and with the pandemic showing no signs of slowing down in India, this can be a life-saving feature for immunity-deficient TB patients.
The third strategy to boost treatment compliance was to incorporate digital behaviour change communication and motivational content for DRTB patients. Interesting digital stories, learning tools and messages have been developed in the local language and attractively packaged in the form of audio-visuals to connect, engage, inspire and motivate patients. In this way, even those with low literacy levels can use the app with ease.
At present, PACT is being rolled out in Nuh (Mewat), Haryana, which is just 100 kilometres from the national capital Delhi and considered the most backward district in India. In 2018, it was included in the Niti Aayog’s list of “aspirational districts” or backward districts demanding special attention for its poor healthcare and development indicators. This happened after a study by Sehgal Foundation, a not-for-profit, found that the district lagged behind other areas in Haryana.
Nuh has a TB load of over 2,800 patients every year. With the treatment initiation of DRTB patients being 24 per cent and the success rate of treatment being only 35 per cent, it was decided to implement PACT in Nuh first. Planners believe that anything which works in this district has the potential to be scaled up to 114 other aspirational districts of India.
It has just been seven months since the initiative was launched but there are already signs that the PACT is boosting adherence and compliance. Mohammed, one of the 120 DRTB patients in Nuh, has recorded 85 per cent treatment adherence using the VOT technology. He returned to work after the lockdown was eased and hasn’t let that come in the way of completing his treatment. He sends videos to his designated healthcare centre to show his intake of medicine from the construction site even now.
Although Mohammed is considered a successful case because he changed his behaviour and adhered to his treatment, the team continues to monitor him. Since he has DRTB, he will have to undergo a longer and more arduous period of treatment. The team wants to ensure that the worker remains vigilant till the end, so it will continue to monitor him over the next six months as all patients under PACT are monitored for at least a year.
PACT, in fact, was specially designed to ensure continuum of care for those diagnosed and undergoing treatment for DRTB in the wake of the contagion. It recently won the Drug Resistant-TB Lifeline QuickFire Challenge instituted by pharmaceutical major Johnson & Johnson’s Global Public Health and Johnson & Johnson Innovation. According to Hilmi Qurashi, co-founder of the not-for-profit, they focussed on making the solution patient-centric. Since they have been engaged in providing mobile technology solutions for TB and other health issues in other parts of India and Africa, they adapted from their existing bottom-up technology- linked model to provide appropriate tools in the hands of the patients.
This could not have come at a better time as recently the World Health Organisation in its global report sounded a warning that the pandemic would cause an excess of 1.8 million TB deaths in 2020. India is among the countries expected to bear the maximum burden of these casualties.
The need for innovation has also been flagged by the ongoing 51st Union World Conference on Lung Health convened virtually by the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (The Union), the world’s first global health NGO. Failure to invest in the health of citizens and defeat preventable, treatable and curable diseases such as TB would enhance exposure to the Novel Coronavirus and future pandemics, said José Luis Castro, Executive Director, The Union.
With 75 per cent of TB researchers saying that they do not have the necessary resources, the need to protect existing ones becomes vital. The concern that TB medicine, tests, vaccines, even sputum cups may not be available has been expressed by Dr Madhukar Pai, director, McGill University TB Centre. This makes the new tools for TB prevention and care, like PACT, even more necessary. Never has this innovative tool kit been needed more, considering the necessity to reduce visits to healthcare centres and contact with healthcare workers in the Corona era.
If Universal Health Coverage has to be achieved, there needs to be a reduced dependence on DOT and greater acceptance of VOT and other forms of innovative patient-centric treatment modes for TB.
(The writer is a senior journalist)
India can accelerate technology and innovate around a plant that is part of its botanical heritage
There are several logical arguments to be made about why marijuana and products derived from the plant, colloquially known as ganja, should be legalised in India. For one, the draconian Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act was only brought in 1985 by the Rajiv Gandhi administration as the then First Lady of the United States, Nancy Reagan, was leading a “war on drugs” and India was trying to sidle up to the US. The inclusion of marijuana products was a surprise, given the plant’s long history of usage in India from ancient times but the NDPS was rarely enforced against small, private users and it is a common joke how easily ganja and resin-based products are available across the country. That all changed with the Sushant Singh Rajput case where the Narcotics Control Board went after his girlfriend Rhea Chkaraborty with what would be considered a comical use of the NDPS Act. However, as all this was going on, there appeared to be a growing clamour to change the NDPS by a whole host of organisations and think-tanks in India. Some, like the Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy, issued a white paper on the subject. The points being raised usually come under law enforcement, arguing that police resources, already strained in India, would be better utilised in tackling high-end drug crimes rather than going after small-time peddlers and private marijuana smokers. However, it might be more radical to consider legalisation of marijuana for another reason, that of riding the major agricultural technology and product development wave. As more and more countries in the Western world legalise marijuana, including many large US States, there is not only demand for the active ingredients of the plant but also major opportunities in the product sphere. In the US, a few companies have become billion-dollar entities selling marijuana products. Cultivation of the plant has led to major innovations in “Ag-Tech” that are now being used for other commercial crops. The rapid development of hydroponics was mainly thanks to marijuana.
There are many reasons why India should legalise marijuana, not just because it will prevent the incarceration of innocent people but because we can accelerate technology and innovate around a plant that is part of our botanical heritage. Why should foreign companies be allowed to create “Big Weed” when India should have the first rights?
In its enthusiasm to ban liquor, Nitish Kumar’s Government may have actually driven a fair few towards alcoholism. There are better ways to tackle addiction
In the US, the Volstead Act was passed in 1920 to ban alcohol. This prohibition stretched for nearly 14 years and established a parallel illegal economy, which led to the emergence of the mafia and promulgated a State-sponsored structure that protected the rich and powerful but came down heavily on the poor. Media reports of the time in the US noted that in a particularly amusing incident, when the police raided a bar in Denver, they found the local Congressman, the mayor and the sheriff sharing a drink. Who would have thought that Denver of the 1920s and the Bihar of today would have so much in common?
The interesting point is that even if you had not read the end of the first paragraph of this piece, you would have known that we are talking about Nitish Kumar’s Bihar and more specifically his prohibition. I use the two terms interchangeably because prohibition and the reckless and arrogant manner in which it has been introduced and implemented in Bihar is also a summary of the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) rule in the State. Prohibition, just like the NDA’s rule in Bihar, has been chequered with problems of administration and governance, and has led to a diversion of resources that could have been used elsewhere.
Let us start with the arrogance of the move. Nitish, almost whimsically, decided one fine day that Bihar would be a prohibition State. Any rational Government would have done some research on the effectiveness of the ban prior to taking such a huge decision or would have at least examined the abject failure of the policy on the ground and admitted that it had made a mistake. However, the current NDA Government lacks the foresight to make deliberated decisions and the humility to acknowledge its mistakes.
Why do we say that Nitish’s prohibition is a barometer of his governance in Bihar? Let us start with the suddenness of the move. Reminiscent of the catastrophic decision of demonetisation taken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the ban was absolute. One would have hoped that the Government had already checked whether prohibition had popular support on the ground or not. No such deliberation was, however, done. As a result, what this policy has led to, is a rise in what Gary Becker, a Nobel prize-winning economist, calls “rational crimes.” That is, crimes committed by rational people since they weigh the possible penalty for being caught against the chance of actually being caught. In Bihar, while the penalty is severe, the chances of being caught are actually minimal. Let me rephrase. In Bihar, your chances of being caught are minimal if you can oil the palms of the police and the relevant authorities or if you are a VIP. But if you are a common citizen, your fortune rests with the Almighty.
In reality, there is no real prohibition in Bihar. Yes, liquor is banned as a concept but in practice, it is available when one wants to get it. As a travel agent told a reporter of a large national daily — “What prohibition? Daru (liquor) is available everywhere…even at local police stations.” What Nitish’s prohibition has introduced is mob violence between competitors who supply liquor to their customers. Since you cannot take another distributor to court for supplying liquor, the only option is to establish a local monopoly through violence. In the US, this violence was largely perpetrated by mobsters, who profited heavily due to the ban. In Bihar, it is often the police and Government officials who help establish monopolies and tend to profit heavily from them. The ones who suffer are not the suppliers of liquor but the consumers. According to the latest records of the police headquarters in Patna, a total of 2,12,323 arrests were made with respect to possession of illegal liquor, between April 2016 and January this year. Out of these arrests, only 19,500 were suppliers. Most of those arrested were poor, who could not afford to pay bribes, while the officials who made money off them suffered few ill consequences. The widespread proliferation of this corrupt system of bribing for liquor is well-known and many have complained about it and even more, have suffered due to it.
Another issue with prohibition is that it leads to dangerous forms of spurious liquor being widely available. This is because since possessing liquor carries a certain amount of risk, bootleggers tend to make the spurious drink more potent so that it has the desired effect in a small amount. Therefore, it is no surprise that reports of deaths due to consumption of hooch have been on the rise, especially in the rural areas, where many cannot afford the fancy liquor that the rich and powerful consume.
Going back to the example of the US, if Bihar is to be compared with Denver during the prohibition era, in a raid, you will probably find police officials and senior politicians drinking in bars but will also stumble upon the poor dying outside that very same public house.
The resources and attention allocated to this flawed scheme have come at the cost of other initiatives. If liquor was regulated and taxed, it would have raised the revenues of the State Government and would have allowed it to use these funds towards education and employment. Instead, what we have today is a disproportionate portion of the State’s resources, both monetarily and in terms of manpower, being diverted towards the Chief Minister’s flagship cause. The absence of police power has led to more crimes being committed since police officers would rather have the chance to earn easy money from alcohol consumers than face the prospect of checking crimes like rape and murder.
You may be of the view that the BJP would try to check this behaviour of Nitish and course correct but the party is supporting him. And going by the example of Gujarat, a State that also follows strict prohibition, it is obvious that the ban in Bihar comes with the blessings of the Centre.
This heady cocktail (excuse the pun) of ill-planning and arrogance displayed by the NDA is ultimately only at the cost of the common man of Bihar. The situation in the State is so appalling that one can say that the Nitish Government in its enthusiasm to ban liquor may have actually driven a fair few towards alcoholism.
(The writer is a former IPS officer and a member of the Congress Party)
Having planned Operation Gulmarg, Pakistan unleashed its tribal militia on Jammu and Kashmir on October 22, 1947
Today is a black day in history and India is observing it as such, to protest against Pakistan’s role in instigating violence and terror in the Valley. Having planned Operation Gulmarg, Pakistan unleashed its tribal militia on Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) on October 22, 1947. Overruning Muzzafarabad, Domel and Uri, the tribal lashkars, led by Pakistan Army personnel, reached Baramulla on October 26 and wreaked havoc. A November 10 despatch by Robert Trumbull of The New York Times relates vividly the death and destruction that was unleashed upon the town by the marauders. It had been stripped of its wealth and dignity before the tribesmen fled in the face of advancing Indian troops, who had rushed to the rescue of the hapless residents. Survivors of those events estimated that 3,000 of their fellow townsmen, including four Europeans and a retired British Army officer, Colonel Dykes, and his pregnant wife, were slain. When the raiders rushed into town on October 26, one party of Mahsud tribesmen scaled the walls of the Saint Joseph’s Franciscan Convent compound and stormed the convent hospital and the church. Twenty-four hours later, when the Indian Army entered Baramulla, only 1,000 were left of the population of about 14,000.
Max Despott, an Associated Press photographer, described on November 2 that he saw more than 20 villages in flames while flying over a section of Kashmir Valley, extending within 20 miles of Srinagar. The villages had been set on fire by the invaders, who were scouring the Valley and moving in the direction of Srinagar.
Sydney Smith of Daily Express of London was in the Baramulla Hospital during those ten days and filed a first hand report of the attack on the convent. “The tribal lashkars had come shooting their way down from the hills on both sides of the town. They climbed over the hospital walls from all sides. The first group burst into a ward firing at the patients. A 20-year-old Indian nurse, Philomena, tried to protect a Muslim patient whose baby had just been born. She was shot dead first and the new mother was next. Mother Superior Aldetrude rushed into the ward, and as she knelt over Philomena, she was attacked and robbed. When the Assistant Mother, Teresalina, saw a tribesman point a rifle at Mother Aldetrude, she jumped in front of her and a bullet went through Teresalina’s heart. At that moment, Colonel Dykes raced from his room to get the Mother Superior out of danger, shouting at the tribesman as he ran. But the Mother Superior was shot and Colonel Dykes collapsed beside her, with a bullet in his stomach. His wife ran from her husband’s room to help the Colonel, but she too, was shot. While this went on, Gee Boretto, an Anglo-Indian, was killed in the garden in front of nine nuns. Then the nuns themselves were lined up before a firing squad. We did not find Mrs Dykes until the following day. She had been thrown down a well. Reports had come that the chief of another Evangelical Mission, Major Ronald Davis, a Welshman, and one of his two English women assistants, had been shot dead. The other assistant was said to have been taken to the hills,” says Smith in his report.
Abdul Rahman of Baramulla, too, recorded his observations and said that the raiders looted the Hindus to begin with, burnt the houses of the Sikhs and killed them. “As a result of this arson and loot, the Sikhs and the Hindus fled Baramulla, leaving their houses burning, and most of their women were raped and kidnapped. The raiders did not touch the Muslims to begin with — perhaps they wanted to win their sympathy. After a few days when they found that they were about to be forced out of the Valley, they turned on everybody. They started wholesale loot, arson and rape. They killed whoever came in their way. The raiders also took all the valuable ornaments of silver and gold, shawls and so on when they left,” he recalled.
According to the Wazir-i-Wazarat of Baramulla, Chaudury Faizullah, the tribal lashkars entered in groups of 30-40 men. Over 5,000 of them were concentrated in Baramulla at one time. They were mostly tribesmen with a few Punjabi Muslims, all well-armed and led by Pirs, Pakistan Army and Frontier Constabulary officers. The local Muslim Conference men joined the raiders and acted as guides. From the day the raiders entered the town, they started killing non-Muslims and looting and burning houses, irrespective of religion and raping women. They broke into houses in groups of 10-12, robbed them and carried away valuables, clothes and food. About 280 lorries were used to ferry this loot. The Pakistani raiders left on the night of November 7 when the Indian Army re-captured it. The Times of London reported on November 11 that residents seemed delighted to welcome the Indian troops. The Press despatch also bore testimony to the fact that the convent and hospital were not destroyed by the Indian aerial attacks as alleged by Pakistan wireless statements.
(The writer is Secretary, Ministry of Culture)
The judgment in the Rhea Chakraborty case has virtually laid down a new norm with regard to police jurisdictions, one which may be misused by complainants
One issue which has captured the imagination of India and occupied most of the space in the country’s electronic and print news media in recent times, especially some television channels, is the untimely death by suicide of actor Sushant Singh Rajput (SSR). The young man, who was originally from Bihar, was found dead in his home in Bandra, Mumbai on June 14, where he had hung himself.
Going by the set procedures in such cases and given that this was a high-profile one involving a celebrity’s death, the Mumbai Police went about its work diligently. It recorded the statements of 56 people, including the immediate family members, relatives, live-in partner, friends and staff of the deceased actor. At that point of the investigation, none of them alleged any foul play. Their statements, too, did not suggest a cognisable offence. Consequently, the Mumbai Police registered the matter as an accidental death and proceeded in terms of Section 174 of the Code of Criminal Procedure (CrPC). However, after about 40 days, on July 25, a First Information Report (FIR) was registered at the Rajiv Nagar police station in Patna, Bihar, at the instance of the actor’s father, KK Singh, levelling allegations of breach of trust, misappropriation of property of his deceased son and abetment to suicide against his live-in partner Rhea Chakraborty and her family members.
A police team from Patna went to Mumbai to carry out the investigation. However, the Mumbai Police raised the issue of jurisdiction and there was a lot of acrimony over the issue. Finally, on the recommendation of the Bihar Government, the Central Government directed the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to carry out the probe in the matter. Meanwhile Rhea Chakraborty approached the Supreme Court under Section 406 of the CrPC for the transfer of the FIR from the jurisdiction of the Additional Chief Judicial Magistrate III, Patna Sadar, to the Additional Chief Metropolitan Magistrate, Bandra, Mumbai.
Now, the settled legal position is that the FIR has to be registered at the police station, which has jurisdiction over the area where the offence or any part of it is alleged to have been committed. Prima facie the Patna Police had no jurisdiction to register an FIR in the matter. Even if the complaint filed with the Bihar Police disclosed commission of some cognisable offence, the established procedure would be to register a “zero FIR” and transfer it to the police station empowered to do so. The Section which becomes relevant in this matter is Section 181(4) of the CrPC. It reads, “Any offence of criminal misappropriation or of criminal breach of trust may be inquired into or tried by a court within whose local jurisdiction the offence was committed. Or any part of the property, which is the subject of the offence, was received or retained, or was required to be returned or accounted for, by the accused person.”
The Supreme Court, in its judgment, upheld the validity of registering the FIR in Patna, mainly on the ground that the allegations also related to criminal breach of trust and misappropriation of money, which were to be eventually accounted for in Patna (where the complainant resides) and that could prima facie indicate the lawful jurisdiction of the Patna Police.
The apex court heavily relied upon the words “accounted for” in the Section to uphold the validity of the FIR. It did cite a few judgments to substantiate its reasoning. Though it is not possible to discuss every single judgment here, it can safely be said that in none of the cited judgments, the words “accounted for” have been used or applied by the courts. They did not imply that only because the accused would eventually be accountable to legal heirs of the deceased, the FIR could be lodged wherever the legal heirs of the deceased reside, even though no part of the offence has ever taken place within the jurisdiction of that police station.
For argument’s sake, let us take a hypothetical case of a businessman, who commits suicide in Mumbai due to alleged financial wrongdoing on the part of his business associate or agent or even a creditor. Now, let us say that one son of the deceased businessman resides in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh and another in Ahmedabad, Gujarat. By virtue of this judgment, the police forces of these two places would have the jurisdiction to register an FIR and investigate the matter only because the money was eventually to be accounted for to the satisfaction of the legal heirs in these two cities. Thus, they would have the option to choose the place/State which best suited their interests. An FIR sets criminal law into motion and, therefore, a probe by the police will follow. A police team from Lucknow or Ahmedabad, as the case may be, will have to travel all the way to Mumbai for the investigation, collecting evidence and recording the statements of witnesses. Will any meaningful probe be possible in this manner? Will it not create a situation of political slugfests and inter-State wrangling with regard to investigations by the police force of one State into a crime committed within the territorial jurisdiction of another State? Will every such case then be assigned to the CBI or some other Central agency?
Another aspect which needs to be noticed is that as per Supreme Court Rules notified on May 11, a single judge is competent to hear certain bail matters and transfer applications. The relevant apex court rule reads, “Provided that the following categories of matters may be heard and disposed of finally by a judge sitting singly nominated by the Chief Justice: Special leave petitions arising out of grant, dismissal or rejection of Bail Application or Anticipatory Bail Application in the matters filed against the order passed under Section 437, Section 438 or Section 439 of the CrPC 1973 (two of 1974) involving the offences punishable with sentence up to seven years imprisonment; applications for transfer of cases under Section 406 of the CrPC 1973 (two of 1974); application of an urgent nature for transfer of cases under Section 25 of the CrPC 1908 (five of 1908).”
Now Rhea Chakraborty filed a petition under Section 406 of the CrPC for transfer of investigation in the FIR registered at Patna, Bihar to Mumbai, which was dismissed by the single judge on the ground that Section 406 of the CrPC does not grant the apex court any such power. Once the petition for transfer itself had been declined, there was no occasion to further decide the jurisdiction of the Patna Police to register an FIR, as it was neither a consequential matter, nor was the decision of transfer petition dependent on the adjudication of validity of the FIR. On the perusal of the Rules reproduced above, there was no occasion for the single judge to adjudicate upon these issues. In effect, the judgment says that in cases where a person commits suicide or is murdered and there are allegations of breach of trust or misappropriation of property, then the FIR can be registered by the legal heirs of the deceased at any police station in India, wherever they reside. The investigation then will have to be carried out by the officer in-charge of that police station, though no part of the offence has ever taken place within its jurisdiction.
The judgment in the Rhea Chakraborty case has virtually laid down a new jurisprudence with regard to police jurisdictions. It has blurred lines and has serious implications on the criminal justice system so far as the initiation of criminal proceedings is concerned. This will only result in confusion and is susceptible to misuse by complainants. The court has given an open-ended and wide interpretation to the words “accounted for” in Section 181(4) of the CrPC. This is bound to give birth to myriad and complicated issues in the near future.
(The writer is an advocate in the Punjab and Haryana High Court)
The PM is right, if India is to avoid a devastating second wave, our behaviour during the festive season will matter
In Kolkata and the rest of West Bengal, as well as in Bengali communities across the length and breadth of India, the coming of the festive season meant going to a Puja pandal, paying obeisance to the Mother and her children on their annual visit before indulging in food and mingling with friends and family. And not just in Bengal, where the arrival of Ma Durga meant a time of feasting and spending on new clothes and household goods, but across the country, across communities, these months meant exchanging gifts, sweets and what not. It was a time for togetherness, where children travelled back to be with their families and the usual news stories of these times over the past few years were the exorbitant airfares across the country. However, in these Coronavirus-infected months, whether in Kolkata or in Delhi’s Chittaranjan Park area, the limited and scaled down pandals have become no-go areas. But while the pandemic has dampened enthusiasm in many sensible people, who are relying on digital feeds to address their spiritual quest, others are incorrigible. Festival romantics, for whom the joys of pandal-hopping cannot be denied, have compelled the Calcutta High Court to modify its ban on entering pandals, now allowing small groups inside. How on earth will this be monitored? While this can possibly be managed in cities like Kolkata, Howrah, Asansol and Siliguri, how will the rush be controlled in the hundreds of small towns that dot the South Bengal countryside, all of which have their own Puja pandals and where people invariably use India’s densest suburban rail system to work in the city of Kolkata? The potential for a regional healthcare disaster is tremendous and one presumes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech was to ensure that things do not get out of hand. In Delhi, puja organisers have been careful and no large pandals have been set up. The few pujas that are happening are taking place purely for religious purposes in temples.
One hopes that the citizens of India pay heed to the PM’s request and understand that God will not be angry if we do not go and pay obeisance in person. This is a horrible aspect of today’s reality and there will be an economic price as well, but if we are to stay safe and healthy during the winter, we do not have a choice.
RJD leader Lalu Prasad’s son has committed himself to the race rather late in the day. He may dent but can’t demolish Nitish
One would have expected the pandemic to dull the campaign for the Bihar elections but Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav is certainly stealing the thunder in optics. The surging crowds at his rallies, in total violation of social distancing norms, the high decibel cheers and his promise of providing 10 lakh jobs show the despondency of the State’s migrant workers, who are looking for a sliver of hope, if not the promised land. They say visuals shape perception, and though Bihar’s wisened voter has seldom been swayed by spectacles and transferred votes, Tejashwi’s appeal is certainly giving some anxious moments to the Janata Dal (United) supremo and incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. But with popular sentiment favouring the BJP with which JD(U) is in a combine, can Tejashwi churn the political waters if not turn the tide? Perhaps, he has immersed himself rather late in the day but will this legitimise his claim to being the torchbearer of his father, Lalu Prasad Yadav, and his social justice movement? For now, Tejashwi, who has often been criticised for running away to Delhi at the slightest challenge and being arrogant, is seriously investing himself as a chief ministerial aspirant. And over the last six months, he has been grounded in his State, worked the grassroots and built a people connect. Most importantly, he has decided to step out of Lalu’s shadows and recast the political dialogue to his specifications. He knows full well that he cannot fill his father’s big shoes just yet and that RJD would still get the traditional caste-based loyalty and minority votes based on Lalu’s goodwill. After all, the Yadav-Muslim combined votebase still makes for 30 per cent of the State population. So he wants to carve out a broader constituency for himself that is more contextual than historic and is keen to make the most of a time when the political stock of Bihar’s one-time deliverer Nitish is at an all-time low. So instead of harping on the RJD’s core plank of caste, he has made unemployment of the State’s youth the pivot of his campaign, as economics is the only issue that matters in pandemic-hit times. This helps him on two counts. First, it helps him reel in the youth, who form about 24 per cent of the electorate and who, like the migrant workers, are thoroughly disenchanted with the way Nitish handled their return during the lockdown. They even idolised Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath for rehabilitating them in transit, a fact that the BJP is likely to encash for itself. Second, though the RJD is seen as a scam-tainted party, a new generation hardly remembers the details and Tejashwi is hoping to contemporise the party’s appeal among the young. In fact, his catchy slogans, like “Nayi Soch Naya Bihar” or “Abki Bar Yuva Sarkar,” are in tune with his effort to recast himself as a development-oriented leader who can fill in where Nitish failed. Besides, he has also given tickets to some upper caste leaders but has been astute enough to not upset the backward castes and Dalits, considering that Nitish has systematically chipped away at the RJD’s base over the years by creating sub-categories like the Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) and Mahadalits. Tejashwi, is, therefore, trying to broaden the party’s base to make up for this slide and wants to personify the Bihar that doesn’t want Nitish. It is this that makes him engaging in what was thought to be a colourless election.
The question is if the relatability and people connect can work on the ground mathematically. Of course, this time both Lalu and Tejashwi have been careful about seat allocation to allies, preferring to keep the lion’s share for the party. They have learnt the hard way, drawing a blank in the Lok Sabha elections last year after contesting only 19 seats on their own and apportioning the rest among allies, who couldn’t ensure vote transfers to either the RJD or the Congress. So the party is contesting 144 Assembly seats, leaving 70 for the Congress and 29 for the three Left parties. On its own, its vote-catching potential goes up but right now with Nitish splitting its pie, what with Dalit leader Jitan Ram Manjhi and other splinters migrating to the JD(U), floating outfits or becoming Independents, the RJD still needs its old allies lest they, too, desert and split the anti-vote. Besides, RJD won 80 seats in the 2015 Assembly election together with Nitish and the JD(U) votebase. That’s gone now. So RJD cannot risk disadvantaging itself further. Besides, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) now has a broad caste arc with the support of dominant groups like the Kurmis, Koeris/Kushwahas and Mahadalits, who account for 60 per cent of Bihar’s population. Tejashwi is banking on the Left parties for transplanting “caste” with “class” and hoping to make a breakthrough among the poor and underprivileged. By and large, the Left parties have limited but committed voters and can matter in the RJD-led alliance. Besides, Tejashwi visited flood-hit refugees at their homes and toured the really backward pockets of the State. And though politically and ideologically divergent, he backed rival claimant and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) leader Chirag Paswan for pointing out Nitish’s flaws, cleverly not antagonising himself among the Paswans, a dominant section of Dalits. Nitish needed a credible challenger much earlier for people to reconsider, a space quietly picked up by the BJP with its post-Ayodhya swell and the Modi aura. A fortnight of roaring success doesn’t translate to votes. Will Tejashwi remain a talking point or indeed become a turning point?
We have to get past the obsessive compulsion to look at monthly outcomes and instead adopt a medium-to-long-term approach for a sustainable recovery
The Indian economy has been stress-tested many times before but never been dented as savagely as this time around. But 2020 will be remembered as the year that eroded a decade’s worth of progress, the annus horribilis that bought humanity to its knees. Governments and businesses across the world are undergoing rapid recalibrations in order to adjust to the world of extreme volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA). So, when the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that “the world economy is not coming back to 2019 levels until 2022”, it is a comforting statement of fact that economic contraction is a universal phenomenon and not a stand-alone, India-centric affliction.
So, how is the Government catalysing towards a sustainable growth momentum? The task has not been easy for a country with limited financial resources to secure lives and livelihoods of 130 crore people, who account for 18 per cent of the world’s population. Given the constraints, the Narendra Modi-led Government has pursued a path of re-booting and rebuilding the economy by wresting four pillars parallelly. First, by addressing interim and short-term solutions for sustaining livelihoods. Second, by identifying and spending on post-Covid sectors of growth that will lead to sustainable and a long-term recovery. Third, by using its mandate to push ahead with powerful reform agenda, passing in quick succession long-pending reforms in labour, agriculture and education. India is poised for a stronger and more robust comeback as compared to partial or cyclical rebounds. Fourth, in order to maintain a steady growth momentum, the Government has pursued balancing social sector spending with infrastructure spending. The Centre recognises the importance of infrastructure as the foremost engine of growth and the need to scale up outlays to at least eight per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on “next-generation infrastructure,” for which an allocation of Rs 111 trillion investment has been set aside from 2020 to 25.
Can the Government do more by way of welfarist measures, given the anticipated shortfalls in revenue? The World Bank, usually the paragon of caution, has this time around advised emerging nations like India to set aside fiscal prudence and take on further debt, as “you first worry about fighting the war, then you figure out how to pay for it.”
Interim solutions lie in first addressing livelihood issues by further extending the timelines of direct income support for the rural poor, as also offering urban migrants a similar package. The Centre has spent around two per cent of GDP on welfarist schemes like direct cash transfers for income support, free grains for the rural poor, increased spendings on Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MNREGA) and so on. As the crisis is far from over and the duration of the pandemic is uncertain, it is doubtful the Government will prematurely withdraw welfarist spending.
By lowering interest rates, providing credit guarantees for MSMEs, allowing for loan moratoriums and one-time restructuring of loans, the Government has deployed a sizeable fiscal package of around seven per cent of GDP towards increasing liquidity. This is much required to address the supply side needs of the industry, though funding has not adequately percolated down to SMEs, who are most severely impacted by the downturn.
While globally, Central Banks have continued with massive doses of Quantitative Easing (QE), there is room for more in emerging markets like India as the effect of rate cuts and liquidity keeps waning due to the weak transmission. However, the policy of easing credit flows is not insulated from the downside risks of defaults that could impact the health of the already fragile banking sector. Because it is a given that the impact on the financial sector isn’t usually immediately visible, so the true impact of defaults on loans will reflect only in the following quarters.
The phenomenon of “revenge” or “rebound” spending during the festival months is at best a temporary surge. As we enter the festive season, there is already an average uptick by 34 per cent to 40 per cent in sector-specific surges in the major propellers of growth like retail, consumer durables, automobiles and residential housing. However, socio-economic variables have contributed to worsening VUCA levels in the services sector, which contributes 54 per cent to the GDP but has seen irrecoverable demand-destruction.
Travel, tourism, shopping, hospitality, aviation, entertainment, leisure and fashion come under the discretionary-spend service sector, which is expected to see an improvement during the festive months. Viewed through the lens of behavioural science, the phenomenon of “revenge buying, or spending on indulgences” happens after a prolonged period of suppression on lifestyle pleasures that creates the much needed “feel-good factor.” Levels of discretionary spending are a vital marker of economic health, as people only spend on lifestyle expenses once they have disposable funds left after paying for taxes, housing, savings and other essential needs.
To gauge the downward or upward trends in these sectors, predictive insights can be gained from the data of the Google Community Mobility Report that uses anonymised data provided by Google Maps. The global Google Mobility Index trends show that travel and mobility levels had fallen to 44.7 per cent in April and risen to 82 per cent by mid-September. Here again, mobility and commuting will vary with the spread or decrease in regional Covid-loads.
The aviation and hospitality industries have been among the 26 most stressed sectors and recovery is not expected before 18 to 24 months. The tourism industry contributes nine per cent to the GDP, generates substantial revenues and accounted for 87 million jobs in 2019.
The festival season is expected to give a big boost to these closely aligned sectors and will hopefully fuel the wheels of the economy till the end of 2020. Optimism thereafter rests on the advent of the vaccine by early 2021. However, with the onset of winter and the negligence of maintaining distancing protocols at festive gatherings, there is a risk of further waves of viral outbreaks. This in turn will deepen the negative impact on future earnings and impact consumer spending in the following quarter of 2020 to 21.
Ultimately, the volume of consumer spending is not being dictated by need-based buying, but by what I term as the “Index of Fear-Intensity.” The quantum of “Fear-Intensity” in consumers wanes and rises in response to the local Covid-load, intermittent lockdowns and the visibility of each individual’s anticipated earnings over the next six months, which are now dictating behavioural patterns of consumers.
Which sectors can ride the economy towards sustainable recovery? There is empirical evidence that increased spending in infrastructure during downturns has never failed to have trickle-down effects in rebooting the economy and creating millions of jobs. As most emerging nations are constrained for resources, the Indian Government would be looking to tap into concessionary finance facilities being extended by international development finance institutions. The World Bank, Asian Development Bank and IMF are fast-tracking generous assistance to member countries facing a Covid-crunch, with global interest rates being at historic lows.
Assessing sectoral bounce backs in recovery for the July to September quarter, it has been largely driven by agriculture, while IT, healthcare, fintech, educational technology, telecom and e-commerce sectors will remain the prime engines of post-Covid growth, as they come under the category of the new “Touchless and Homebody Economy.”
Stock markets, long seen as a proxy for the real economy, are now being driven by ultra-lax monetary policies in the developed world. But stock market buoyancy in no way mirrors the actual economic pain at ground levels, even as the Sensex consolidates around the 40,000 mark.
However, unlike measuring the stock market performance on a quarterly basis, corporates and the Government will have to get past the obsessive compulsion to look at monthly outcomes, and instead adopt a medium-to-long-term approach for a sustainable recovery, while remaining resilient enough to calibrate policies to the VUCA factors.
(The writer is author, columnist and Chairperson of the National Committee for Financial Inclusion at the Niti Aayog)
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