An unpublished periodic labour force survey by the National Sample Survey Office for 2017-18 on the state of employment in India revealed the real story on job crisis in the country. The undisclosed report would have been India’s first official survey on jobs after 2011-12. According to the report, unemployment rate rose from 2.2 per cent in 2011-12 to 6.1 per cent in 2017-18, which is the highest in the last 45 years since 1972-73. In particular, unemployment rate among the youth (15-29 years) jumped from five per cent in 2011-12 to a massive 17.4 per cent in 2017-18 in rural areas, while unemployment rate among women of the same age group in rural areas increased from 4.8 per cent in 2011-12 to 13.6 per cent in 2017-18. In urban areas, a whopping 18.7 per cent of young men and 27.2 per cent of young women were unemployed in 2017-18.

This data was also confirmed by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), an independent think-tank, which recently published a report stating that unemployment rate in India was at 7.4 per cent in December, 2018. However, there isn’t enough official information about job creation, except a few sectoral reports with the limitation on job creation and speculation of job losses due to the implementation of demonetisation, Goods and Services Tax and automation. The CMIE report revealed that 11 million jobs were lost alone in 2018, while the Reserve Bank of India’s KLEMS database showed that around seven lakh jobs were lost in the textiles, textile products and leather sectors  between 2014 and 2016.

On the other hand, the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) data revealed that 18 million jobs were created in the last 15 months with some limitations and the labour bureau data showed that 4.2 million new jobs were created during 2016-17. The Government claimed that the transport sector alone contributed 3.4 million jobs in 2018; leading cab aggregators, Ola and Uber, added about 2.2 million jobs; the IT sector contributed close to 1.5 million jobs; around 10 million people were registered under the Pradhan Mantri Rojgar Protsahan Yojana; loans worth Rs 15.43  were given to 120 million people via Mudra scheme; road construction added three million jobs; and around 19,000 start-ups have provided jobs to thousands of people in recent years.

Citing these figures, NITI Aayog CEO, Amitabh Kant, asserted, “So, are we saying that no jobs are being created. This to my mind is unbelievable.” There are stories of both job-gains and job-losses in the past, yet the truth is that we have achieved the highest level of unemployment, particularly among the youth. The important point here is that the much-awaited employment-unemployment data by the NSSO survey was disclosed to the public by a national newspaper and not by the Government.

The fiasco on NSSO data started after the resignation of two independent members — PC Mohanan and J Meenakshi — of the National Statistical Commission (NSC) on January 29, who said that they did not like the way the Government shelved the NSSO employment report, which was vetted by the NSC in early December, 2018. They also reportedly complained that the Government released back-series Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data in November, 2018, without even taking their inputs into consideration.

The back-series data was controversial because it dramatically reduced the growth rate achieved during the United Progressive Front’s (UPA) tenure. Statistics commission head PC  Mohanan said, “Both of us in the commission have been feeling that we are not effectively discharging the responsibilities supposed to be done by the commission.”

However, the Government is still not acknowledging and has been dismissing the NSSO’s survey report finding, which is deemed as the most creditable source on the country’s job picture. It is defending its decision of not disclosing the report by saying: “It is an interim report; methodology used in the survey to calculate job creation is faulty; the data collection method is different — it is computer-assisted now whereas it was person-to-person earlier; it does not look at self-employment and entrepreneurships; all sectors are not captured, particularly new types of internet-based services such as Ola and Uber and e-commerce.” Kant said, “The GDP growth data has come out today; you can’t be growing at 7.2 per cent and say there are no jobs being created in the economy… the problem is there is a lack of good quality jobs and that is what we need to focus on.”

The Government is now faced with a difficult task to reassure the people that the data released by it is credible as some other recent data on Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Ujjwala Yojana, rural electrification campaign, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, National Crime data, banking data and Annual Employment-Unemployment survey of the Labour Bureau have either been withheld or sought to be massaged. This has raised concerns about these data being politically driven. Critics wonder how bad the job data might be  for the Government to put it aside without explanation and leave it to the people to decide.

The Government, in its interim Budget, announced a slew of sops for the marginal farmers, the middle class and the informal sector workers but remained silent on one of the most important issues of job creation. Instead, interim Finance Minister Piyush Goyal only mentioned about the number of jobs that have been created in sectors such as aviation, railways and renewables with the potential of many more jobs to be created in the future as a part of the Government’s push towards digital infrastructure.

The term ‘job’ found a mention only five times in the Budget speech. This shows the nervousness of the Government. The Government can at least provide some future remedy about job crisis by filling the existing huge 2.4 million vacant posts across Central and State Governments. Just filling these vacancies can provide the much-needed relief to the unemployed youth of this country. This also reflects that the Government is now in election mode and is busy defending the reasons of unreleased reports than acknowledging the findings and taking positive steps. One thing is sure that politically, job crisis or youth unemployment will be an important agenda for the 2019 election. As George Orwell once said: “If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they want to hear.” This suitably fits the description of job data for the Government, which is likely to present its superior economic performance in an attempt to sway the voters. However, voters will choose to believe what they want to.

(The writer is a Fellow with Institute for Human Development, New Delhi )

Writer: Balwant Singh Mehta

Courtesy: The Pioneer

An unpublished periodic labour force survey by the National Sample Survey Office for 2017-18 on the state of employment in India revealed the real story on job crisis in the country. The undisclosed report would have been India’s first official survey on jobs after 2011-12. According to the report, unemployment rate rose from 2.2 per cent in 2011-12 to 6.1 per cent in 2017-18, which is the highest in the last 45 years since 1972-73. In particular, unemployment rate among the youth (15-29 years) jumped from five per cent in 2011-12 to a massive 17.4 per cent in 2017-18 in rural areas, while unemployment rate among women of the same age group in rural areas increased from 4.8 per cent in 2011-12 to 13.6 per cent in 2017-18. In urban areas, a whopping 18.7 per cent of young men and 27.2 per cent of young women were unemployed in 2017-18.

This data was also confirmed by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), an independent think-tank, which recently published a report stating that unemployment rate in India was at 7.4 per cent in December, 2018. However, there isn’t enough official information about job creation, except a few sectoral reports with the limitation on job creation and speculation of job losses due to the implementation of demonetisation, Goods and Services Tax and automation. The CMIE report revealed that 11 million jobs were lost alone in 2018, while the Reserve Bank of India’s KLEMS database showed that around seven lakh jobs were lost in the textiles, textile products and leather sectors  between 2014 and 2016.

On the other hand, the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) data revealed that 18 million jobs were created in the last 15 months with some limitations and the labour bureau data showed that 4.2 million new jobs were created during 2016-17. The Government claimed that the transport sector alone contributed 3.4 million jobs in 2018; leading cab aggregators, Ola and Uber, added about 2.2 million jobs; the IT sector contributed close to 1.5 million jobs; around 10 million people were registered under the Pradhan Mantri Rojgar Protsahan Yojana; loans worth Rs 15.43  were given to 120 million people via Mudra scheme; road construction added three million jobs; and around 19,000 start-ups have provided jobs to thousands of people in recent years.

Citing these figures, NITI Aayog CEO, Amitabh Kant, asserted, “So, are we saying that no jobs are being created. This to my mind is unbelievable.” There are stories of both job-gains and job-losses in the past, yet the truth is that we have achieved the highest level of unemployment, particularly among the youth. The important point here is that the much-awaited employment-unemployment data by the NSSO survey was disclosed to the public by a national newspaper and not by the Government.

The fiasco on NSSO data started after the resignation of two independent members — PC Mohanan and J Meenakshi — of the National Statistical Commission (NSC) on January 29, who said that they did not like the way the Government shelved the NSSO employment report, which was vetted by the NSC in early December, 2018. They also reportedly complained that the Government released back-series Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data in November, 2018, without even taking their inputs into consideration.

The back-series data was controversial because it dramatically reduced the growth rate achieved during the United Progressive Front’s (UPA) tenure. Statistics commission head PC  Mohanan said, “Both of us in the commission have been feeling that we are not effectively discharging the responsibilities supposed to be done by the commission.”

However, the Government is still not acknowledging and has been dismissing the NSSO’s survey report finding, which is deemed as the most creditable source on the country’s job picture. It is defending its decision of not disclosing the report by saying: “It is an interim report; methodology used in the survey to calculate job creation is faulty; the data collection method is different — it is computer-assisted now whereas it was person-to-person earlier; it does not look at self-employment and entrepreneurships; all sectors are not captured, particularly new types of internet-based services such as Ola and Uber and e-commerce.” Kant said, “The GDP growth data has come out today; you can’t be growing at 7.2 per cent and say there are no jobs being created in the economy… the problem is there is a lack of good quality jobs and that is what we need to focus on.”

The Government is now faced with a difficult task to reassure the people that the data released by it is credible as some other recent data on Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Ujjwala Yojana, rural electrification campaign, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, National Crime data, banking data and Annual Employment-Unemployment survey of the Labour Bureau have either been withheld or sought to be massaged. This has raised concerns about these data being politically driven. Critics wonder how bad the job data might be  for the Government to put it aside without explanation and leave it to the people to decide.

The Government, in its interim Budget, announced a slew of sops for the marginal farmers, the middle class and the informal sector workers but remained silent on one of the most important issues of job creation. Instead, interim Finance Minister Piyush Goyal only mentioned about the number of jobs that have been created in sectors such as aviation, railways and renewables with the potential of many more jobs to be created in the future as a part of the Government’s push towards digital infrastructure.

The term ‘job’ found a mention only five times in the Budget speech. This shows the nervousness of the Government. The Government can at least provide some future remedy about job crisis by filling the existing huge 2.4 million vacant posts across Central and State Governments. Just filling these vacancies can provide the much-needed relief to the unemployed youth of this country. This also reflects that the Government is now in election mode and is busy defending the reasons of unreleased reports than acknowledging the findings and taking positive steps. One thing is sure that politically, job crisis or youth unemployment will be an important agenda for the 2019 election. As George Orwell once said: “If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they want to hear.” This suitably fits the description of job data for the Government, which is likely to present its superior economic performance in an attempt to sway the voters. However, voters will choose to believe what they want to.

(The writer is a Fellow with Institute for Human Development, New Delhi )

Writer: Balwant Singh Mehta

Courtesy: The Pioneer