As the US presidential election on November 5, 2024, approaches, recent polling from AtlasIntel suggests former President Donald Trump is gaining momentum, particularly in key swing states. According to the survey, around 49% of likely voters expressed support for Trump, giving him a slight 1.8% lead over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
Conducted in early November with nearly 2,500 participants, predominantly female, this poll highlights Trump's advantage in all seven critical swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Notably, Trump shows his strongest performance in Arizona, where he leads Harris 51.9% to 45.1%. Similarly, he maintains a lead in Nevada (51.4% to 45.9%) and North Carolina (50.4% to 46.8%).
Swing states play a pivotal role in presidential elections, often determining the outcome by razor-thin margins. In 2020, for instance, Joe Biden won Arizona by only 10,000 votes. The political landscape is further complicated by contrasting poll results; a Reuters/Ipsos poll from late October indicates Harris holds a narrow 44% to 43% lead over Trump among registered voters, although her advantage has diminished since September.
The dynamics of the race are shifting rapidly as voters weigh their options. With Trump currently favored in critical battlegrounds, both campaigns are likely ramping up efforts to sway undecided voters and solidify their bases in the final days leading up to the election. The outcome remains uncertain, but the intensity of competition in these swing states underscores their importance in the 2024 election
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