The Goldman Sach report in 2007/8 predicted the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the US economy by 2025, with Indian economy the fourth largest after Japan. By 2050, they projected the largest economy in the world will be China, which will be almost twice the size of US economy, with Indian economy almost following the US economy at number two or at par with it. The new century dawned round two decades was forced to accept overwhelming American power, after the dismantling of soviet era. The overwhelming military superiority enjoyed by the United States and its economic might has established a uni-polar world order.
Military and political power rests on the economic strength of any country. American present superpower status is a product of its rapid economic growth between 1870 and 1950 and the fact that during the second half of the twentieth century it was the world’s largest and often most dynamic economy. Today, it enjoys 22% of the world’s total nominal GDP share with a population of less than 5% of the world’s population. However the financial crisis of 2008 marked the end of American international domination and the emergence of China. The United States has lost considerable ground as a major manufacturer and as a large exporter of manufactured goods having steadily ceded that position to East Asia and especially China. Gradually, American domination in institutions likes IMF, World Bank, WHO has declined significantly.
Although we are witnessing the Chinese rise as a growing super power that is the bearer and driver of the new world, its tentacles having stretched across East Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, Latin America and Africa yet it is authoritarian state with a dictator in command having an imperial ambition to expand its influence globally. President Xi Jinping is highly insecure within CCP. He is an aristocrat as well as poor man’s poster boy in a confused Chinese system wherein officially it proclaims itself to be a communist state but de-facto it is a capitalist state. Xi has installed himself as the commander of PLA, he has become President till eternity, he has wiped out dissenters from the country, he has purged several PLA commanders on the charges of corruption, and he has jailed potential rivals in the garb of fight against corruption. His plan for global domination resulted in PRC pushing for trillion dollar ONE BELT ONE ROAD initiative to connect China with rest of the world. Xi Jinping use PLA as a tool to frame his foreign policy. He has opened confrontation with all his neighbors namely Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, India and the his list includes bordering Russia and Kazakistan, he claims ownership over the south China sea that is fiercely disputed by Brunei, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia & Taiwan. Xi Jinping lust for power is driving him crazy in the most difficult times that humanity has faced due to the Chinese manufactured and exported corona virus.
It is a serious reason to worry for 1.3 billion Indian. Already, we were facing economic downtrend since last three years, the GDP growth rate is gradually slipping towards 5% mark and Covid 19 has destroyed the large section of economy permanently. Xi Jinping has taken Chinese virus as an opportunity to attack its neighbors to distract world’s attention from the pandemic. Now it is India’s turn to return the gesture to China. This crisis offers tremendous long term strategic advantage for policy makers to deal with Chinese threat permanently. India must immediately recognize Tibet and Taiwan as sovereign countries and allow them to run official embassies in India and vice versa, this will open floodgate for several countries to follow the footsteps of India in shaking up Chinese hege- mony globally. Secondly, India must supplying subsidized arms and military technology to Vietnam and Philippines to create multiple fronts for China and its PLA in response to what China is doing by arming Pakistan to be used for India in a proxy war. Thirdly, India should take a lead in Indo pacific command with USA, Japan, and Australia to choke Chinese trade route; it will hurt PRC and its ambition to be a global economic leader. Fourth, India must use weapon and army on regular basis when it is spending billions of dollars on armed forces and weapon procurement. The country like Pakistan, Nepal and others must be fearful of the consequences, if they plan to go against the interest of India. Lastly, restrict Chinese import of non essential goods by imposing tariff and focus our attention in building formidable self reliant economy with a target of $10 trillion by 2030 to face hostile China, this threat is permanent and China should be treated as permanent adversary even when the times are good.
Editor-in-Chief Prashant Tewari: Connect at twitter / FB # prashanttewari11