If Gulf oil facilities continue to be targetted, the Asian century is unlikely to materialise as this oil, which fuels the engines of growth, is transported eastwards via the Indian Ocean

The present time is colloquially being called the Asian Century for all the right reasons. If the 19th century was Britain’s Imperial century and the 20th was American, then the 21st century is apparently becoming the Asian century. By 2020, the economic growth (in purchasing power parity terms) of Asian giants put together will surpass the rest of the world and that is likely to be the future trend as well. The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has played and continues to play a vital role in boosting this Asian prosperity by being the “road of development in the 21st century.”

The major source of development for most of the Asian countries is oil, the supply of which comes from West Asia—the Gulf region—while the major consumers, India, Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, South Korea and Japan lie to the East.

Of late, some incidents impacting oil security have exposed the vulnerability of Asian powers to events occurring in the Gulf. The mine attack, which blew off the hull of a Japanese oil tanker at a UAE port and 30 Indian sailors being detained by Iran, who were on board a British tanker flying a Panama flag, are cases in point.

However, of even greater concern is the attack which took place on Saudi oil facilities on September 14, which has not received the attention it deserves. If oil facilities continue to be targetted in the Gulf, the Asian century is unlikely to materialise any time soon as this oil, which fuels the engines of Asian growth, is transported eastwards from the Gulf via the Indian Ocean.

As a share of oil imports, the Gulf region accounted for 44 per cent for China, 63.6 per cent for India, 86 per cent for Japan and 77.1 per cent for South Korea, according to 2017 data compiled by the Observatory of Economic Complexity. The security of the production centres as well as the oil’s transportation across the sea lanes are thus vital for Asia and any disruption could put a huge question mark on the emergence of the 21st century as the Asian century. Oil thus is the most important governing factor of geo-politics these days and owing to its criticality, the word “ge-oil-itics” needs to be brought into common strategic parlance.

The first-of-its-kind stealthy air strike on Saudi oil facilities took place using drones and cruise missiles. The attack was claimed by the Houthi rebels in Yemen but evidently, there were other powers behind it, using the Houthis as a front. The undetected strike, carried out with high precision left people speechless. When the Houthi rebels took responsibility for it, people termed it a “black swan” event.

However, if one studies the consistency in the effort, one will find that such strikes were being practised since January 2018 and it was the 19th attempt, which was successful beyond imagination. So this was a “grey rhino” and not a “black swan” event. And if it could happen to one of the most heavily-guarded facilities in the world, then India also needs to pay attention to the security of its own refineries and other coastal strategic assets, given the threat of State-sponsored terrorism in the vicinity.

Any strike on oil facilities will push up the price of oil which in turn will adversely impact India’s economy and dent GDP growth rate. For example, according to Nomura, an increase in oil prices by $10 per barrel will lead to a drop in India’s GDP by 0.2 per cent points. This would place in jeopardy, the nation’s dream of becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2024.

Safety of the Gulf: At present, the US has a strong naval presence in the Gulf (and in IOR as well) and has traditionally safeguarded its energy security, including Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC). It has ensured the same for its allies or strategic partners. However, its relative energy dependence on the countries of the region is diminishing with the exploitation of shale oil and gas at the home front and it is less dependent on oil from the Gulf.

The US still continues to provide a security umbrella over the region for the sake of oil but in the last few years, discussions with the Trump administration have brought up the issue of India and China being free riders banking upon American naval assets to protect their access to energy supplies from the Gulf without making any significant contribution themselves. China has evidently increased its naval presence in the IOR and is continuing to do so because Xi Jinping has understood that in the long-run, “ge-oil-itics” will control geo-politics.

Lessons for India: This attack by drones and cruise missiles has brought out the lethality and accuracy of air power, while defeating another pillar of airpower which is air-defence (detection, identification, timely interception and destruction). It also shows that non-State or State-sponsored non-State actors have acquired sophisticated systems that can impact the global economy and cause collateral damage of an unprecedented nature. The threat in the Indian context is real with Pakistan sponsored non-State actors looking for opportunities to cause collateral damage within Kashmir and across India.

Attack drones can target high-value national leaders, critical infrastructure, power grids, oil refineries, military installations and population centres. Drones are highly versatile and can deliver explosives, biological, chemical agents and also act as the eyes and ears of the terrorists.

This is not mere speculation, because recently drones from the Pakistani side dropped weapons in Punjab. A large number of AK-47 assault rifles and grenades dropped in Amritsar by heavy-lifting drones that came from across the border were for terrorists to create trouble in Jammu & Kashmir. The drones carried out eight sorties in 10 days in September to drop the weapons, including satellite phones.

If one can see the similarities in the pattern of usage of drones by non-State actors against a State, it shall appear as the beginning of a larger plot against India. Indian security forces thus need to prepare to negate any such threats. This is a lesson which Indian policymakers, strategists and tacticians must learn fast and evaluate the country’s airpower preparedness for this kind of attack from land or maritime borders. The recent events in the Gulf, the unsettling situations in Iran, Iraq and the Saudi kingdom and an ever-increasing Chinese footprint are a wake-up call to India to review its role in the IOR with a reduced American presence. It is thus time to strengthen India’s defence and foreign policy for IOR while focussing on maritime security along with IOR countries. Defence interactions focussing on strengthening the air defence capability of the IOR countries, sharing the air picture for better awareness and joint exercises between Indian Air Force (IAF) and other air forces or air wings of the region will not only enhance the security of the IOR but also deter the elements wanting to disrupt the peaceful growth of the region.

India’s maritime borders are exposed from three sides and there are many high-value assets located long the Indian coastline.

Given the limited air power assets and constraints of the defence Budget, conventional and non-conventional aerial threats can only be tackled through a rejuvenated air-power philosophy focussed on better integration of naval and air force assets.

It would not only give the nation insurance of predicted economic rise but also give assurance to neighbouring IOR countries for mutual growth under a secured environment.

Security And Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR), which is India’s vision for Indian Ocean (Hind Mahasagar) can become vision MAHASAGAR (Mutual, Aggregate, Homogeneous and Assured Security And Growth for All in the Region) if India actively assumes the role of security-provider through invigorated diplomatic and defence engagements with IOR nations.

If Gulf oil facilities continue to be targetted, the Asian century is unlikely to materialise as this oil, which fuels the engines of growth, is transported eastwards via the Indian Ocean

The present time is colloquially being called the Asian Century for all the right reasons. If the 19th century was Britain’s Imperial century and the 20th was American, then the 21st century is apparently becoming the Asian century. By 2020, the economic growth (in purchasing power parity terms) of Asian giants put together will surpass the rest of the world and that is likely to be the future trend as well. The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has played and continues to play a vital role in boosting this Asian prosperity by being the “road of development in the 21st century.”

The major source of development for most of the Asian countries is oil, the supply of which comes from West Asia—the Gulf region—while the major consumers, India, Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, South Korea and Japan lie to the East.

Of late, some incidents impacting oil security have exposed the vulnerability of Asian powers to events occurring in the Gulf. The mine attack, which blew off the hull of a Japanese oil tanker at a UAE port and 30 Indian sailors being detained by Iran, who were on board a British tanker flying a Panama flag, are cases in point.

However, of even greater concern is the attack which took place on Saudi oil facilities on September 14, which has not received the attention it deserves. If oil facilities continue to be targetted in the Gulf, the Asian century is unlikely to materialise any time soon as this oil, which fuels the engines of Asian growth, is transported eastwards from the Gulf via the Indian Ocean.

As a share of oil imports, the Gulf region accounted for 44 per cent for China, 63.6 per cent for India, 86 per cent for Japan and 77.1 per cent for South Korea, according to 2017 data compiled by the Observatory of Economic Complexity. The security of the production centres as well as the oil’s transportation across the sea lanes are thus vital for Asia and any disruption could put a huge question mark on the emergence of the 21st century as the Asian century. Oil thus is the most important governing factor of geo-politics these days and owing to its criticality, the word “ge-oil-itics” needs to be brought into common strategic parlance.

The first-of-its-kind stealthy air strike on Saudi oil facilities took place using drones and cruise missiles. The attack was claimed by the Houthi rebels in Yemen but evidently, there were other powers behind it, using the Houthis as a front. The undetected strike, carried out with high precision left people speechless. When the Houthi rebels took responsibility for it, people termed it a “black swan” event.

However, if one studies the consistency in the effort, one will find that such strikes were being practised since January 2018 and it was the 19th attempt, which was successful beyond imagination. So this was a “grey rhino” and not a “black swan” event. And if it could happen to one of the most heavily-guarded facilities in the world, then India also needs to pay attention to the security of its own refineries and other coastal strategic assets, given the threat of State-sponsored terrorism in the vicinity.

Any strike on oil facilities will push up the price of oil which in turn will adversely impact India’s economy and dent GDP growth rate. For example, according to Nomura, an increase in oil prices by $10 per barrel will lead to a drop in India’s GDP by 0.2 per cent points. This would place in jeopardy, the nation’s dream of becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2024.

Safety of the Gulf: At present, the US has a strong naval presence in the Gulf (and in IOR as well) and has traditionally safeguarded its energy security, including Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC). It has ensured the same for its allies or strategic partners. However, its relative energy dependence on the countries of the region is diminishing with the exploitation of shale oil and gas at the home front and it is less dependent on oil from the Gulf.

The US still continues to provide a security umbrella over the region for the sake of oil but in the last few years, discussions with the Trump administration have brought up the issue of India and China being free riders banking upon American naval assets to protect their access to energy supplies from the Gulf without making any significant contribution themselves. China has evidently increased its naval presence in the IOR and is continuing to do so because Xi Jinping has understood that in the long-run, “ge-oil-itics” will control geo-politics.

Lessons for India: This attack by drones and cruise missiles has brought out the lethality and accuracy of air power, while defeating another pillar of airpower which is air-defence (detection, identification, timely interception and destruction). It also shows that non-State or State-sponsored non-State actors have acquired sophisticated systems that can impact the global economy and cause collateral damage of an unprecedented nature. The threat in the Indian context is real with Pakistan sponsored non-State actors looking for opportunities to cause collateral damage within Kashmir and across India.

Attack drones can target high-value national leaders, critical infrastructure, power grids, oil refineries, military installations and population centres. Drones are highly versatile and can deliver explosives, biological, chemical agents and also act as the eyes and ears of the terrorists.

This is not mere speculation, because recently drones from the Pakistani side dropped weapons in Punjab. A large number of AK-47 assault rifles and grenades dropped in Amritsar by heavy-lifting drones that came from across the border were for terrorists to create trouble in Jammu & Kashmir. The drones carried out eight sorties in 10 days in September to drop the weapons, including satellite phones.

If one can see the similarities in the pattern of usage of drones by non-State actors against a State, it shall appear as the beginning of a larger plot against India. Indian security forces thus need to prepare to negate any such threats. This is a lesson which Indian policymakers, strategists and tacticians must learn fast and evaluate the country’s airpower preparedness for this kind of attack from land or maritime borders. The recent events in the Gulf, the unsettling situations in Iran, Iraq and the Saudi kingdom and an ever-increasing Chinese footprint are a wake-up call to India to review its role in the IOR with a reduced American presence. It is thus time to strengthen India’s defence and foreign policy for IOR while focussing on maritime security along with IOR countries. Defence interactions focussing on strengthening the air defence capability of the IOR countries, sharing the air picture for better awareness and joint exercises between Indian Air Force (IAF) and other air forces or air wings of the region will not only enhance the security of the IOR but also deter the elements wanting to disrupt the peaceful growth of the region.

India’s maritime borders are exposed from three sides and there are many high-value assets located long the Indian coastline.

Given the limited air power assets and constraints of the defence Budget, conventional and non-conventional aerial threats can only be tackled through a rejuvenated air-power philosophy focussed on better integration of naval and air force assets.

It would not only give the nation insurance of predicted economic rise but also give assurance to neighbouring IOR countries for mutual growth under a secured environment.

Security And Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR), which is India’s vision for Indian Ocean (Hind Mahasagar) can become vision MAHASAGAR (Mutual, Aggregate, Homogeneous and Assured Security And Growth for All in the Region) if India actively assumes the role of security-provider through invigorated diplomatic and defence engagements with IOR nations.