Modi factor holds the key for NDA II to make a comeback?by Opinion Express May 14, 2019 0 comments
Love him, hate him but people will keep his name on the board. Narendra Modi is the focal point of discussion either ways for the ongoing general elections in India. There is an extreme sharp division in the voters in favour or against Narendra Modi in the entire country. News channels, news papers, social media reflects vertical division in the society. India was never more divided on ideological ground than it is today for the GE 2019. Rahul Gandhi led Congress is slightly better placed than in 2014, with state governments in M.P., Rajasthan and Chattisgarh under his belt – Congress is poised for substantive gains. But with the reverses in the recently concluded state elections, BJP has tighten its belt in going ahead to the planning of the GE 2019. Narendra Modi has rebranded himself round the garb of nationalism post Pulwama attack and subsequent Balakot Air strike.
After four phases, Modi’s change in campaign tactic to say the BJP win is certain will give the BJP the winner’s momentum. Again losing an opportunity, Rahul Gandhi has not given a convincing feel that the job of dethroning Modi has been almost achieved. So what is 2019 all about? Till May 23 proves us all right, or wrong – I would argue there is a mild Modi wave in the country. It is an under- current to give him another chance, all things considered. It does not sound as strong as 2014 but BJP has a distinguish advantage over its rivals in running a well oiled campaign. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP is flush with cash, giving his bloc a massive advantage over the main opposition Congress party as he seeks to win a second term in India’s general election. But current and former BJP supporters, opposition politicians, businessmen and activists interviewed say Modi has an unprecedented advantage, thanks to its financial muscle and structure party cadre. The regional power house in Telengana, AP, WB and TN are likely to play a decisive role in the formation of the next government. We may revert to the GE 2004 & 2009 like situation where in the southern parties played dominant role in the formation of the government at the centre.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre may cross the magic threshold of 272 mark in the 543-seat Lok Sabha. According to the OPINION EXPRESS survey, the NDA may win 280-290 seats, the Congress-led UPA – 111, Others – 144. The BJP, according to the poll, will come down from the 282 seats it had won in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections but will increase its vote share from 31.34 percent to 36 per cent. The Congress will increase its seats tally from the 44 it won in 2014 to 85-90 seats; its vote share will go from 19.52% to near 27% in the national elections. The others are predicted to get 125 seats with a 31% vote share in the Lok Sabha.
Second most important factor is the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the run up of General Elections. He is scoring over 51% approval rating in their various surveys conducted by several domestic and overseas agencies. Modi is perceived as the strong leader capable of defending the country from external and internal aggression. Modi’s pro poor schemes are likely to yield results in the rural area where BJP is traditionally weak.
Third, BJP is in fierce fight in the areas where it has no stakes prior to 2014. Today it is a force in West Bengal, North East, Odisha and it is desperately trying to open account in Kerala, Telengana. It is largely the hard work of Amit Shah to create a fighting base in the states where BJP is likely to gain substantial seats.
The last five years, RSS has expanded its cadre across India with a friendly government in centre. The disciplined RSS cadre is likely to play a pivotal role in securing an edge for BJP in the general elections.
We are keeping our figure crossed till 23 May 2019 and the entire globe is looking to India for settling down with the next government in the month of May 2019. May the best man win?