Voters Kept It Simple
Karnataka elections results are along predictable lines, many opinion polls and exit polls have scored right on seats prediction. Congress has emerged as the winner, BJP has been demolished and Janata Dal (Secular) refuses to be written off. The national parties were eying big in Karnataka primarily to consolidate platform for up coming Lok Sabha elections, off course Congress won and BJP facilitated the victory. First, there is no sweeping sentiment; Congress has won by a slim margin in the 224 seat house and that is therefore no endorsement of its brave assertion of ‘we survive everything’.
Second, national issues had little bearing, and like most states Karnataka voted on the basis of factors that affect the daily lives of the people things like governance and civic amenities. BJP state leadership and its central leadership has messed up the government right from on set of its formation of its first government in any southern state. Yeddyurappa, Reddy brothers in Bangalore and Anant Kumar and Venkya Naidu in collaboration of their god father’s in Delhi has delivered worst government in any BJP state ruled state of India.
Third, even if Congress would have us believe it, the elections cannot be seen as a victory of Rahul Gandhi, who took some time out to campaign in the state. In the same vein, the results should also be viewed as a wakeup call for Narendra Modi for he has a long way to go before he is accepted as a national leader. Even though he campaigned only briefly, the BJP fared poorly in all the regions he visited like central and coastal Karnataka or Bangalore. Salman Khurshid lost no time in saying, “Message for Modi is that there is no Modi.” That may be an overstatement but not entirely out of place. Amidst all this, one factor has remained a constant over the decades. HD Devegowda remains pertinent to state even in his loss and his legacy is being carried forward by his younger son HD Kumaraswamy. Devegowda has always amazed with his hunger for power after all how many will accept being chief minister after having been the prime minister once and with his instinct to remain relevant.
But the joker of the elections this time was clearly BJP rebel BS Yeddyurappa, whose breakaway Karnataka Janata Paksha, was possibly one of the main factors for BJP’s terrible showing. Yeddyurappa ate away at the party’s roots after having single handedly won the first southern bastion for the BJP and also significantly fragmented the Lingayat vote bank, even if he managed no significant political victory for the KJP. In a sense, except taking comfort from sweet revenge, he did more harm to others than good to himself. It is a repeat of UP BJP story wherein Kalyan Singh was pushed out of the party and UP BJP has never recovered from the stock. Now even when the Kalyan Singh is back to BJP several times, or Yeddyruppa will surely be back with BJP in the near future, the damage is done. What Yeddyurappa did to the BJP, JD(S) has done to some extent to the Congress. It has nibbled away at its vote bank in areas like Mysore where the electorate had punished it earlier for its betrayal of the BJP. While the Congress has won by 2:1 ration in urban cities, JD(S) damaged it in rural parts.
As far as region wise outcomes were concerned, Congress made small gains in Bangalore where it managed under 50% of the seats, while JD(S) has gained significantly. Mumbai Karnataka has possibly been the best success story of the Congress. This is obviously where Yeddyurappa has had maximum impact on the prospects of the BJP. The Congress has also regained in the northern region of Hyderabad Karnataka, but has fared worst in the Southern part of the state where JD(S) has made most gains. The 2008 results got swapped in the western and coastal regions, where Congress wrested most of the seats BJP had won last time.
Interestingly, while an indicted Yeddyurappa, who also bears the ignominy of being the first chief minister of India to go to jail, had the ability to dent his former party, the tainted Reddy brothers have received a drubbing in Bellary. Also while Lakshman Savadi, who was one of the three MLAs caught watching pornography in the Assembly, won, his co-accused colleagues CC Patil and Krishna Palemar thankfully lost.
Considering the mixed fate of these tainted politicos there can be no certain verdict on how the moral question pans out. But it is precisely moral high ground that BJP chose to take after the picture from down south became clear. Overall, despite the victory, Congress should ideally not be in a celebratory mood and there is no reason for them to gloat about their triumph in the south. What they must accept is that Karnataka elections are neither a positive verdict on the scam soiled government at the Centre nor a defeat of the BJP ideology, as asserted by PM Manmohan Singh. If anything Karnataka elections are about what factionalism can do to a corruption riddled party, which cares little for governance issues. And if that is the reading, Congress better watch the wall for results in 2014 though with a rider that Congress despite corruption allegations has looked a unit under Sonia Gandhi.
Report filed by Diwakar Shetty from Bangalore Bureau
OpinionExpress.In
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