The chances of Hong Kong turning into ‘Tiananmen Square 2’ are not remote, a few believe. However, for many in international politics, if the Chinese Government comes into direct confrontation with the protesters, it will permanently change the liberal atmosphere and political freedom available to the islanders

Hong Kong is no more an “Economic City” for mainland China. It’s turned itself into a massive political hotbed. Protest is not ebbing away. The city has entered into the third month of demonstrations. Gradually, the protesters are making the city a theatre of all political activities. Starting from the resignation of city chief Carrie Lam, they have started demanding full autonomy from the central Government in Beijing, an independent commission to investigate police brutality, and wider political reforms to allow for direct elections to elect the representatives of the Legislative Council. The way the demonstrations are carried out and the black-clad vanguards are handling the current situation, it seems it would not bring an end to the crisis sooner or later. Are they inviting another “Tiananmen Square” type crackdown that struck China way back in June 1989. Will the communist bosses in Beijing allow them the kind of autonomy the Hong Kongers are demanding? How long the crisis in the island will continue? For many in international politics, these are baffling questions that might take away the existing liberal atmosphere and political freedom available to the islanders forever if the Chinese Government directly comes in confrontation with the protesters.

This summer, Hong Kong has witnessed the worst political turmoil ever since the territory’s handover to China in July 1997. The current bout of protests stated with a demand for withdrawing the controversial extradition law proposed by the city Government. And eventually, that Bill was dropped by the Legislative Council for an indefinite period, as Lam clarified.

There is another question: is Hong Kong still crucial for China? Experts say that if China behaves more in Mao-era style, it might have to depend on the island more in commercial terms than political perspective. As China has not brought financial and legal reforms demanded by the global business enterprises, it would have been possible for the Communist Party leadership to make Hong Kong gradually irrelevant for long-term business transactions. But what has happened is that China, particularly under Xi Jinping, has grown beyond the traditional Communist closet. China has reached out to almost all destinations of the globe. China has grown fast and entered into the globalised world at ease, but it has not opened up as it was expected in the West.

This has made the economy of Hong Kong critically important for mainland China. The most important aspect of its economy is that it has been successful in registering a status within a body of international laws and rules around the world. This has made Hong Kong possible to provide it seamless access to the privileged western markets. This status has many aspects: a higher credit rating, low risk weights for banks, and counter party exposures, the ability to clear dollars at ease, independent membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), equivalent status of its stock exchange in the US, Europe and Japan, recognised as a developed stock market by global index firms and cooperation agreements with a number of top security regulators. Besides, most of the foreign direct investment (FDI) mainly flows through Hong Kong. The stock domiciled in the island territory has nearly doubled in the last decade up to $2 trillion. Despite the islanders developing suspicious attitude towards mainland China, the territory’s share of total FDI flowing into the latter, has remained stable at 60 per cent. This is very striking. It must be admitted that China has become an international growth machine. The Government has turned the country and its massive human resources into a hub of foreign investment opportunities. Needless to say that this has resulted into a situation where the movement of the FDI flowing into the country has increased at an alarming rate. But the reality is that most of the global investors always prefer to have a legal stamp from Hong Kong. This is because of China’s direct refusal to carry out major reforms as demanded by a global market economy.

Besides being an Asian financial hub, Hong Kong hosts major regional headquarters of the giant multi-national corporations. And ironically, even after the withdrawal of British suzerainty over the island since July 1997, such offices have increased by two-thirds to 1,500. But the American techno giants such as the Amazon, Google and Facebook have settled their offices in Singapore. With the protests raging to a record high level, there has been constant fears that many of such regional offices might move to Singapore in the near future.

A direct military intervention by China is quite unlikely for now. It seems, the Xi administration is solely banking on the leadership of Lam and Hong Kong Police for sending the protesters back home. By all possibilities, Lam administration is hoping that the protesters will lose steam soon. Even the security experts feel that very fast popular support would be dwindling for them. Initially, parents were marching with their children. But then now mostly young ones are on the road and their parents are highly concerned about the growing violence that is fast engulfing the entire movement. Many of the parents are not giving pocket money to their wards so that they have to head home soon. Another expectation is that with the beginning of the new academic session from early September, the college and university students have to go back to their classrooms.

Currently, China and America are locked in a trade war. Thus Trump is cheering the protesters in Hong Kong and is also saying that Chinese troops are moving towards the border with the island. In fact, China knows very well that Trump has a formidable weapon to use in the form of Hong Kong Policy Act 1992 that recognises Hong Kong as a separate legal and economic entity from China. It also makes Hong Kong an open economy by all standards. This might stop China from intervening in the territory directly in the form of a military attack. This will eventually breach the above act.

But the bottom line is that continued protest will block all the avenues for a peaceful advocacy of resolving the conundrum for now and in future as well. Hope the protesters listen to the writings on the wall. Else Hong Kong will soon be turning into a boiling point of Asia. This will provide more ammunition to the Chinese army to intervene just to maintain the law and order situation in its own territory.

(The writer is an expert on international affairs)

Writer: Makhan Saikia
Courtesy: The Pioneer

The chances of Hong Kong turning into ‘Tiananmen Square 2’ are not remote, a few believe. However, for many in international politics, if the Chinese Government comes into direct confrontation with the protesters, it will permanently change the liberal atmosphere and political freedom available to the islanders

Hong Kong is no more an “Economic City” for mainland China. It’s turned itself into a massive political hotbed. Protest is not ebbing away. The city has entered into the third month of demonstrations. Gradually, the protesters are making the city a theatre of all political activities. Starting from the resignation of city chief Carrie Lam, they have started demanding full autonomy from the central Government in Beijing, an independent commission to investigate police brutality, and wider political reforms to allow for direct elections to elect the representatives of the Legislative Council. The way the demonstrations are carried out and the black-clad vanguards are handling the current situation, it seems it would not bring an end to the crisis sooner or later. Are they inviting another “Tiananmen Square” type crackdown that struck China way back in June 1989. Will the communist bosses in Beijing allow them the kind of autonomy the Hong Kongers are demanding? How long the crisis in the island will continue? For many in international politics, these are baffling questions that might take away the existing liberal atmosphere and political freedom available to the islanders forever if the Chinese Government directly comes in confrontation with the protesters.

This summer, Hong Kong has witnessed the worst political turmoil ever since the territory’s handover to China in July 1997. The current bout of protests stated with a demand for withdrawing the controversial extradition law proposed by the city Government. And eventually, that Bill was dropped by the Legislative Council for an indefinite period, as Lam clarified.

There is another question: is Hong Kong still crucial for China? Experts say that if China behaves more in Mao-era style, it might have to depend on the island more in commercial terms than political perspective. As China has not brought financial and legal reforms demanded by the global business enterprises, it would have been possible for the Communist Party leadership to make Hong Kong gradually irrelevant for long-term business transactions. But what has happened is that China, particularly under Xi Jinping, has grown beyond the traditional Communist closet. China has reached out to almost all destinations of the globe. China has grown fast and entered into the globalised world at ease, but it has not opened up as it was expected in the West.

This has made the economy of Hong Kong critically important for mainland China. The most important aspect of its economy is that it has been successful in registering a status within a body of international laws and rules around the world. This has made Hong Kong possible to provide it seamless access to the privileged western markets. This status has many aspects: a higher credit rating, low risk weights for banks, and counter party exposures, the ability to clear dollars at ease, independent membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), equivalent status of its stock exchange in the US, Europe and Japan, recognised as a developed stock market by global index firms and cooperation agreements with a number of top security regulators. Besides, most of the foreign direct investment (FDI) mainly flows through Hong Kong. The stock domiciled in the island territory has nearly doubled in the last decade up to $2 trillion. Despite the islanders developing suspicious attitude towards mainland China, the territory’s share of total FDI flowing into the latter, has remained stable at 60 per cent. This is very striking. It must be admitted that China has become an international growth machine. The Government has turned the country and its massive human resources into a hub of foreign investment opportunities. Needless to say that this has resulted into a situation where the movement of the FDI flowing into the country has increased at an alarming rate. But the reality is that most of the global investors always prefer to have a legal stamp from Hong Kong. This is because of China’s direct refusal to carry out major reforms as demanded by a global market economy.

Besides being an Asian financial hub, Hong Kong hosts major regional headquarters of the giant multi-national corporations. And ironically, even after the withdrawal of British suzerainty over the island since July 1997, such offices have increased by two-thirds to 1,500. But the American techno giants such as the Amazon, Google and Facebook have settled their offices in Singapore. With the protests raging to a record high level, there has been constant fears that many of such regional offices might move to Singapore in the near future.

A direct military intervention by China is quite unlikely for now. It seems, the Xi administration is solely banking on the leadership of Lam and Hong Kong Police for sending the protesters back home. By all possibilities, Lam administration is hoping that the protesters will lose steam soon. Even the security experts feel that very fast popular support would be dwindling for them. Initially, parents were marching with their children. But then now mostly young ones are on the road and their parents are highly concerned about the growing violence that is fast engulfing the entire movement. Many of the parents are not giving pocket money to their wards so that they have to head home soon. Another expectation is that with the beginning of the new academic session from early September, the college and university students have to go back to their classrooms.

Currently, China and America are locked in a trade war. Thus Trump is cheering the protesters in Hong Kong and is also saying that Chinese troops are moving towards the border with the island. In fact, China knows very well that Trump has a formidable weapon to use in the form of Hong Kong Policy Act 1992 that recognises Hong Kong as a separate legal and economic entity from China. It also makes Hong Kong an open economy by all standards. This might stop China from intervening in the territory directly in the form of a military attack. This will eventually breach the above act.

But the bottom line is that continued protest will block all the avenues for a peaceful advocacy of resolving the conundrum for now and in future as well. Hope the protesters listen to the writings on the wall. Else Hong Kong will soon be turning into a boiling point of Asia. This will provide more ammunition to the Chinese army to intervene just to maintain the law and order situation in its own territory.

(The writer is an expert on international affairs)

Writer: Makhan Saikia
Courtesy: The Pioneer