The recent aggression shown by USA and North Korea may jeopardize world security

The two aggressive leaders of USA and North Korea have brought the entire world on its knees.

Donald Trump narrative of & fury and Kim statement of hitting US by ICBM have resulted in escalation of tensions in entire world. Japan and South Korea are living in constant fear of missile attack but unfortunately China is proceeding with its stale strategy of promoting rouge states namely North Korea and Pakistan by supporting them with funds, technology, business collaboration and nuclear technology transfer resulting in making the world a deadly place to live in. KIM Jongun may have hidden a secret message to the United States in his blustering boast that he is now ready to lob missiles at Guam. But can President Trump understand it?

Recently North Korean media stat- ed Kim had been briefed by his Missile Command on completed plans to test launch missiles and ‘bracket’ the US Pacific territory of Guam. But Kim stated he would watch the “foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees” a little more before deciding whether to give an order for the missile test. The US has stat- ed any missiles lobbed toward Guam would be seen as a deeply provocative act. US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said the United States would “take out” any such missile and declared such a launch could lead to war.

Kim’s comments, however, come with an almost hidden tone of moderation. He appears to hold out the offer to defuse the growing crisis if the United States made a conciliatory gesture. “The US Imperialists caught the noose around their necks due to their reckless military confrontation racket … (but) he would watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees spending a hard time of every minute of their miserable lot,” the Pyongyang statement reads.

But the question is whether or not everybody who needs to understand that understands that. “The problem is that Kim Jonun is largely the same personality type as Trump both are paranoid, narcissistic and have huge egos,” Dr Hohnen says. “We’ve never really had leaders like that on both sides before.

“The unknown factor in this is not Kim, its Trump. Kim Jongun is acting as we expect him to behave.” “We’ve actually been expecting something like this,” she says. “Today’s quite an important day in North Korea (celebrations marking the liberation of Korea at the end of World War II). The North Koreans usually do something in terms of military development to coincide with such events.”

DIPLOMATIC CRISIS

Officials have told US media that satellites have observed DPRK mobile missile launcher movement, indicating an intermediate-ballistic missile may be being prepared as part of North Korea’s holiday celebrations. The move comes as the United States and South Korea plan to start annual defensive military drills that the North asserts are a severe provocation and a possible preparation for invasion. But South Kora’s Yonhap News Agency says President Moon told a gathering he will prevent war in Korea “at all costs”.

No US military action on the troubled peninsula was possible without Seoul’s consent, he said. US President Donald Trump, who today returned to his residence in New York for the first time since becoming President in January, has phoned regional leaders including Japan’s Shinzo Abe.

“We agreed that Japan, the U.S. and South Korea will coordinate closely, co- operating with Russia, China and other members of the international community to, above all else, prevent North Korea from launching missiles,” Mr Abe said about the call with President Trump. US Secretary of Defense James Mattis warned any further escalation could rapidly lead to war: “Yes that means for a lot of young troops they’re going to be in a wartime situation.”

President Kim Jongun being presented with plans to launch ballistic missiles towards the US territory of Guam. The map in front of him details the flight path of a missile over southern Japan, while the photo on the back wall shows Guam’s Andersen Air Force Base.

‘DELIGHTFUL HISTORIC MOMENT’

Pyongyang’s state media has this morning reported President Kim Jongun as “praising” his Strategic Force for drawing up a “careful” plan for a “power demonstration” to “envelop” Guam in fire. “The nuclear force of the DPRK is strong in its guts and no one can guess its muscle as the flight trajectory of medium-to-long ballistic rocket Hwasong 12, firing data and the correct hitting-point are made public at home and abroad.”

This North Korean supplied image purports to show Kim Jongun being briefed at the KPA Strategic Force HQ on plans to launch ballistic missiles to- wards the US territory of Guam.

INTERNATIONAL CONCERN

The European Union’s foreign policy chief has called for “peaceful, not military” means to resolve the Korean peninsula crisis, urging Pyongyang to avoid any “further provocative action” that could stoke tensions. “At such a critical juncture, the European Union supports diplomatic work with our partners aimed at the deescalation of the situation and achieving the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearize of the Korean Peninsula through peaceful, not military, means,” Federica Mogherini said in a statement.

The statement was issued after a meeting of a key EU panel which agreed the bloc would reach out to North and South Korea, the United States, China, Russia and Japan. “There is an urgent need for a deescalation of tensions on the situation on the Korean Peninsula,” Mogherini said. “(…) We there fore call on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to refrain from any further provocative action that can only increase regional and global tensions.”

USA is building strategic level of co- ordination with another world power namely India to play an active role in taming rouge states like North Korea and Pakistan. So far, India has followed normal diplomatic language of restrain but the ambitious leadership of Narendra Modi is likely to take more active role in the global affairs to push for permanent t UN Security Council seat.

DUBIOUS ROLE OF CHINA

People Republic of China is gradually perceived to be the villain of the new world. China have build satellite rouge states namely North Korea and Pakistan, funded and armed them with clandestine nuclear weapon technology to serve its power balance in the new world order. Pakistan is pitted against India by China to curb India’s global emergence and North Korea is pitted against South Korea to check USA knocking its border. In the process, two rouge states with failed governance have ensured that world is no longer a safe place. There is highly likely that nukes may land up in wrong hands namely jihadi’s or terror groups that can extensively damage the humanity in any part of the world.

The unfair trade practices by PRC and reckless low cost manufacturing, dumping cheap goods in the global market have damaged many economies in the world. IPR violation and clone design are standard practice in China that has hurt many thriving multinational companies globally.

Recently US President has ordered probe against China for IPR violation. The world must unite against the Chinese unfair trade practices to secure sovereign right of many industrial nations.

America is preparing military options in case sanctions fail, says most senior US general

Joint Chief of Staffs chairman says US ready to use ‘full range’ of military capabilities to defend itself against Pyongyang. The Independent US South Korean army soldiers walk by a mock Scud-B missile of North Korea AP America is preparing military options in case sanctions imposed on North Korea fail, the most senior general in the US armed forces has warned. Joseph Dunford said a “full range” of contingency plans had been drawn up in case diplomatic and economic sanctions did not deter Pyongyang’s development of nuclear weapons. The Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman told South Korean President Moon Jaein of the preparations during a 50-minute meeting on Monday, according to a US military spokesman. It comes amid heightened tensions over fears Pyongyang is close to achieving its goal of putting mainland US within range of a nuclear weapon.

The two nations exchanged military threats last week, with North Korea warning it has developed a plan to strike the US Pacific territory of Guam. Donald Trump said military solutions to the crisis were “locked and loaded”, days after vowing to unleash “fire and fury” if Pyongyang continued to threaten the US.

Mr Dunford is visiting Seoul to discuss the rising tensions in the region with President Moon Jaein and Defense Minister Song Young-moo ahead of major joint US-South Korean military drills scheduled for later this month. “He conveyed America’s readiness to use the full range of military capabilities to defend our allies and the US homeland,” said US military spokes- man Darryn James. Mr Dunford, who will also meet with leaders in Japan and China, “stressed that North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmers threaten the entire global community,” the spokesman added. Mr Dunford had earlier told reporters he aimed to “sense what the temperature is in the region” and discuss military options in the event the “diplomatic and economic pressurization campaign” fails. “We’re all looking to get out of this situation without a war,” he added. Mr Moon separately called for a peaceful solution to the nuclear stand-off, urging that “there must not be another war on the Korean Peninsula”. It comes as senior US officials attempted to provide assurances with that conflict with North Korea not imminent.

The American military is ready with a plan to strike North Korean missile sites in a preemptive attack if Donald Trump decides to do so. The plan involves flying a B-1B heavy bomber from Andersen Air Force Base in Guam ac- companies by satellites, drones, higher jets, and aerial refueling warplanes. Training for the mission has been on- going, and there have been 11 practice runs for a similar mission since May when the training was accelerated.

“Of the military options … [President Trump] could consider, this would be one of the two or three that would at least have the possibility of not escalating the situation,” retired Admiral James Stavridis, the former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, told NBC.There are six B-1B bombers positioned in Guam, about 2,100 miles by air to North Korea. The bombers have been heavily used in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and have been updated since then.

The news of the potential operations comes as the relationship between the US and North Korea has become very strained. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Mr Trump have engaged in a heated back and forth of threats. Recently, Mr Trump promised “fire and fury” if Mr Kim didn’t stop threatening the United States. In response, Mr Kim’s government signaled they were considering an attack on Guam if Mr Trump didn’t cool his tough talk. Both countries appear to be more than willing to push the other further and further with the threats, however, in spite of assurance from US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who has said that Americans have no reason to worry about an impending war.

US administration has finally realized that China is the base of North Korea and Pakistan problem. It is China that has clandestinely exported nuclear weapon technology to North Korea and Pakistan and at the same time, they have invested heavily in respective countries to keep the economy rolling ahead despite sanctions and international curbs. The world has realized that China is the backbone of unofficial terror and their irresponsible actions can lead to a major nuclear proliferation that is extremely dangerous to the civil societies globally. It is high time that the global community must put pressure on China to mend its way or get out of the new world order.

 – OE News Bureau

Despite worldwide criticism for its nuclear misadventure, the rogue nation is repenting

A mid international uproar over North Korea’s latest and biggest nuclear weapons test, one of its top diplomats said on Tuesday it was ready to send “more gift packages” to the United States.

Han Tae Song, ambassador of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to the U.N. in Geneva, was addressing the U.N. sponsored Conference on Disarmament two days after his country detonated its sixth nuclear test explosion.

“I am proud of saying that just two days ago on the 3rd of September, DPRK successfully carried out a hydro- gen bomb test for intercontinental ballistic rocket under its plan for building a strategic nuclear force,” Han told the Geneva forum. “The recent self defense measures by my country, DPRK, are a ‘gift package’ addressed to none other than the U.S.,” Han said.

“The U.S. will receive more ‘gift packages’ from my country as long as its relies on reckless provocations and futile attempts to put pressure on the DPRK,” he added without elaborating.

Military measures being taken by North Korea were “an exercise of restraint and justified self-defense right” to counter “the ever-growing and decade long U.S. nuclear threat and hos- tile policy aimed at isolating my country”. “Pressure or sanctions will never work on my country,” Han declared, adding: “The DPRK will never under any circumstances put its nuclear deterrence on the negotiating table.”

Army

North Korea has one of the world’s largest standing armies, with at least 1,000,000 soldiers. However, although the secretive state does not release full details about its armed forces to the rest of the world, their weapons and equipment are believed to be largely obsolete when compared to major Western nations.

tanks

The nation’s 3,500 odd tanks out number its archival South Korea’s fleet by over 1000.

Despite having a larger fleet, most of the North Korean tanks date back to the Soviet era. On the other hand, a major chunk of South Korea’s 2,414 tanks are supplied by the U.S., fitted with modern weaponry, and much more efficient.

Artillery pieces

In terms of artillery, the North Korean army is in possession of over 21,000 pieces of equipment. It is believed that out of the total artillery equipment, many are targeted at Seoul, the South Korean capital city.

Submarines

North Korea boasts of a fleet of at least 72 submarines the highest in the world. The nation’s nuclear weapons could become immune from destruction in case of an preemptive attack, if hidden on board these submarines. In fact, North Korea is reportedly learning the technique of launching nuclear warheads from submarines which, if becomes successful, would allow the country to strike any nation easily.

South Korean marine corps search a North Korean combat class submarine after its discovery on the north-east coast of South Korea, some .62 mile (1 km) south of the demilitarized zone on Sept. 18, 1998.

Frigates

The nation has three frigates (several types of warship) as part of its military possessions. Conversely, the smaller sized South Korean army boasts of 14 frigates currently. Digital satellite imagery of a Soho-class missile frigate at Singyori patrol base in North Korea.

Combat aircraft

The Korean People’s Air Force has a fleet of 563 combat capable aircraft. However, in 2014, each of those planes were grounded for a short period due to low maintenance and poor service.

Aggressive military posturing

North Korea have always maintained an aggressive military posturing against countries it considers “unfriendly,” especially next-door neighbor South Korea. Most recently, tension escalated between the two countries in August 2015 when a North Korean landmine injured two South Korean soldiers. It resulted in the two countries engaging in artillery firing along the demilitarized zone, and North Korea beefing up its front-line troop strength overnight. The standoff eased after the two countries reached an agreement following discussions, and North Korea expressed regret over the landmine incident.

Military guard posts of South Korea (bottom) and North Korea (top) stand opposite each other as seen from the border city of Paju, South Korea, on Aug. 21, 2015.

Human testing for weapons

In June 2015, a North Korean scientist defected to Finland. He carried with him 15 gigabytes of information that showcased how the country’s regime used humans to test its biological and chemical weapons.

Biological weapons

Around the same time, the country released photos showing Kim Jongun touring a pesticide factory, called Pyongyang Bio-technical Institute. However, many experts believe that it could be a facility producing massive amounts of anthrax to be used in weapons.

Chemical weapons

According to Nuclear Threat Initiative, North Korea is believed to be the third largest possessor of chemical weapons.

Cyber army

Finally, North Korea’s cyber military abilities are yet to be fully discovered. It’s worth noting that the nation’s cyber-army has been blamed by the U.S. for the massive Sony hack that occurred in December 2014. U.S. disarmament ambassador Robert Wood said that North Korea had defied the international community once again with its test.

“We look forward to working with our partners in the (Security) Council with regard to a new resolution that will put some of the strongest sanctions possible on the DPRK,” he told the conference. “Advances in the regime’s nuclear and missile programme are a threat to us all … now is the time to say tests, threats and destabilizing actions will no longer be tolerated,” Wood said. It can no longer be business as usual with this regime.” The White House said on Monday President Donald Trump had agreed “in principle” to scrap a warhead weight limit on South Korea’s missiles in the wake of the North’s latest test. The United States accused North Korea’s trading partners of aiding its nuclear ambitions and said Pyongyang was “begging for war”.

– Courtesy Reuters

PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel has opened new avenues for cooperation between the two countries

Clearly  reflecting  the  impact  of  the change in Indian policy towards Israel was  the  chagrin  expressed  by  the  Palestinian envoy to New Delhi: “We were shocked…”

A curious Indian stops a passing Israeli backpacker on a New Delhi street. “Tell me,” he asks, “how many Israelis are there?”

“I’m not quite sure,” the backpacker answers. “About six million.”

“No, no no,” retorts the Indian, “not just in New Delhi. I mean all together.”

The humor of this well-known joke reflects a remarkable reality which helps understand the huge enthusiasm this week’s landmark visit of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi generated, and clearly heralded a “change of gears” in relations between the two countries.

Hindu Jewish affinity

Each year, over 60,000 Israelis travel to India, many of them “unwinding” in the country after completing military service.  Their presence is highly visible across much of the country. Indeed, the “giant shadow” Israelis cast in India is wildly disproportionate to the minuscule dimensions of their homeland. In some outlying locations, Israelis comprise a dominant percentage of foreign visitors. Even in central sites such as the main market in Old Delhi it is not uncommon to see Hebrew signs and encounter merchants able to converse with Israeli customers in fairly fluent Hebrew.

That Israelis seem to feel an instinctive affinity for India should perhaps not be surprising.  Its history is virtually devoid of antisemitism.  Indeed, the  only  significant  incidents  were  the Moors’ attack on the Jews in 1524 and the  Portuguese  persecution  of  Jews in  Cranganore  (now  the  Kerala  coast)

On the political and diplomatic fronts, the two nations were largely estranged for the four decades following their independence in the late 1940s. Thus, although India recognized the State of Israel in 1950, the then ruling Congress Party eschewed full diplomatic relations, siding with the Palestinians and denouncing what many in its ranks termed the “Zionist enterprise” as an imperialist creation of Western colonial powers.

Some years  later.  Moreover,  many  Indian  Jews  achieved  great  prominence, among  them  the  Sassoons  (for  whom the  Sassoon  docks,  the  Sassoon  hospital,  and  other  well-known  sites  have been  named),  Dr.  E.  Moses  (a  Jewish mayor of Bombay), Lt. Gen. J. F. R. Jacobs (a general in the Indian Army who oversaw the Pakistani Army’s 1971 surrender  in  Bangladesh  and  later  served as governor of Goa and Punjab), Nissim Ezekiel  (a  poet/leading  Indian  literary personality),  and  Dr.  Abraham Solomon Erulkar (the personal physician/ friend of Mahatma Gandhi).

Dispersing ideo-political cloud of “post-colonial” prejudice

However, Indo-Israeli relations were not always characterized by such warmth. On  the  political  and  diplomatic fronts, the two nations were largely estranged  for  the  four  decades  following their  independence  in  the  late  1940s. Thus, although India recognized the State of Israel in 1950, the then-ruling Congress Party eschewed full diplomatic relations, siding with the Palestinians and denouncing what many in its ranks termed the “Zionist enterprise” as an imperialist creation of Western colonial powers.

Additional  factors  also  weighed against  close  and  cordial  bilateral bonds:  New Delhi’s fear of antagonizing  its  large  Muslim  population;  pressures  from  the  Islamic  world,  India’s major source of energy; the fate of the many Indian workers in the Gulf States, and the anti-Israeli attitude of the non- aligned movement, in which India was a leading member.

Moreover, in terms of strategic allegiances,  an  additional  rift  between  the two  states  existed:  Israel  aligned  itself firmly  with  the  United  States,  while India,  then  traditionally  suspicious  of American foreign policy, opted for close links with the Soviet Union. The significant disparity between the two countries hardly boded well for mutual cooperation between them. However, since the early  1990s,  with  the  fall  of  the  Soviet bloc and the accelerating liberalization of  the  Indian  economy,  considerable changes  began  to  take  place,  bringing with  them a marked convergence of Indo Israeli interests.

Removing the reticence

The establishment of full diplomatic ties between Jerusalem and New Delhi allowed the underlying Indo-Israeli affinity to express itself.  Yet, until the Modi government came to power there has been a perceptible reticence, or at least reserve, on the part of India with regard to its relationship with Israel.

One particular sore point was India’s consistent support of anti-Israel resolutions in international forums, such as the UN.  One commentator characterized the Israeli perception in the following terms: “Israel has long complained that India treats it like a mistress: glad to partake of its defense and technology charms, but a little embarrassed about the whole thing and unwilling to make the relationship too public.” But  with  the  rise  to  power  of  the Modi  government,  this  restraint  is  be- ginning  to  fade  discernibly,  and  India has ceased to support a number of motions  of  censure  against  Israel  in  several  UN  bodies.  Clearly  reflecting  the impact  of  this  change  was  the  chagrin expressed  by  the  Palestinian  envoy  to New  Delhi,  at  India’s  decision  not  to support a resolution condemning Israel:  “We  were  shocked.  The Palestinian people and the leaders were very happy with the UN resolution, but the voting of India has broken our happiness.”

physical embrace of Israeli Prime Minister  Benjamin  Netanyahu,  as  he  descended  from  the  plane  that  brought him to Israel, seems to have unequivocally melted away any residual reticence that might have remained.

Modi’s landmark visit

The  visit  of  Indian  Prime  Minister Modi  is  undeniably  a  landmark  event of  potentially  historical  proportions. Attesting to this is the virtually unprecedented attention he has been given by the media and the public in Israel far beyond that accorded most visiting heads of government.

As  the  first  Indian  premier  to  visit the Jewish state, Modi has undoubtedly cast aside any restraint in forging future relations  with  Israel.  Indeed,  despite his country’s heavy reliance on oil from the  Middle  East  (or  “Western  Asia”  as the Indians tend to call it) chiefly Iraq, Saudi  Arabia  and  Iran Modi  appears to  have  come  to  the  conclusion  that India  has  more  to  gain  from  throwing in its lot with Israel than with the Arab States,  who  seem  to  consistently  lend their support to India’s rival, Pakistan.

Two  of  Modi’s  decisions  on  this trip perhaps more symbolic than substantive seem to distill out the essence of  the  new  Indian  approach  to  Israel: The  one,  political;  the  other,  humanitarian. The first was the Indian PM’s decision not to include the customary visit to  Ramallah,  made  by  virtually  all  visiting  senior  statesmen  to  maintain  the appearance of scrupulous even handedness in the Israel Palestinian conflict.

Thus  despite  the  fact  that  the  Indian  government  continues  to  declare its ongoing support for the “Palestinian cause” there can be no glossing over the implicit message  in  Modi’s  decision  to skip some might say, snub the Palestinian Authority by excluding any meeting  with  any  of  its  senior  representatives. courage  in  flouting  the  bonds  of  the constrictive  conventions of  political correctness and  the  willingness  to break from past patterns, which bodes well  for  the  independent  development of bilateral relations in the future.

The other defining event was Modi’s decision to visit  Moshe (Moish) Holtzberg,  the  boy  whose  parents,  Gavriel and Rivka Holtzberg, were murdered in a 2008  attack on the Chabad center in Mumbai  by  an  Islamist  terrorist group based in Pakistan. The attack was one of a dozen carried out throughout the city in late November, 2008, that left 164 dead and at least 308 wounded.

In  making  this  moving  gesture, Modi  not  only  showed  a  laudable  sensitivity  on  a  personal  level,  but  also underscored  the  common  threats/enemies  faced  by  both  countries  and  the joint  perils  that  menace  both  Israelis and Indians.   So although the visit included a dizzying  array  of  sites  and  installations, highlighting  Israel’s  capabilities  and achievements  in  culture,  technology, agriculture,  and  security  it  was  these two  events resolute  moral  clarity  on the  one  hand  and  human  empathy  on the  other that  imparted  a  distinctive quality to the visit making it one of the most memorable in years. Indeed,  as  one  scholar  of  Indo-Israeli  ties,  Souptik  Mukherjee,  pointed out:  “While the visit has many dimensions, the most important aspect is not the joint development of arms, not the prospect  of  free  trade  agreement  but rather the shared values and historical ties.”

Marrying “Make in India” with “Make with India”

The visit also produced some interesting rhetorical innovations.In  September  2015  Modi  launched his “Make in India” initiative to encourage  foreign  corporations  to  manufacture  their  products  in  India.  To date it appears to be an impressive success, with India emerging as the top destination globally for foreign direct investment, surpassing the United States and China!

In  his  effusive  welcoming  address on  Modi’s  arrival,  Netanyahu  mentioned  Modi’s “Make in India” project and  added  a  twist,  suggesting  an  additional  project:  ”Make  with  India”  in which both countries, would exploit the synergies  of  Indo-Israeli  cooperation and  engage  in  joint  ventures  across  a range of civilian and military fields.

Given  the  huge  nascent  consumer demand in India, its burgeoning middle class,  the  daunting  security  challenges it  faces  from  both  state  and  non-state actors innately hostile to Israel as well, there  is  little  doubt  that  both  formula Israeli  manufacturing  plants  in Israel, and joint Indo-Israel projects in either country offer almost boundless prospects.

Referring  to  ongoing  cooperation in the field of space, Netanyahu under- scored with a touch of hyperbole the almost  limitless  opportunities  a  marriage  of  “Make  in  India”  and  “Make with India” could create.  He recalled: “I remember what you told me in our first meeting when it comes to India and Israel relations, the sky is the limit. But now, prime minister, let me add [that] even the sky is not the limit. We are also cooperating in space.”

(Inputs from an article published in Israel Rising by Martin Sherman offers Israeli prospective)

The Prognosis:

Political leaders are driven by four considerations national interests, domestic audience or vote bank, party ideology and personal convictions. While there is normally a strong overlap between party ideology and personal convictions, in situations where there is a tussle between the two, it is the latter that prevails in the case of strong, charismatic leaders. Both Narendra Modi and Donald Trump belong to this category. Also, international relations are need driven and ideology of the visionary sort plays little role. Further, in international realpolitik the stronger party calls the shots. Given this back drop, one can well imagine that the Modi  Trump Summit will be shaped by the latter’s compulsions, predilections and if one may add, idiosyncrasies.

2. True to his background, the issue foremost on Trump’s agenda will be US business interests. This was best illustrated recently by the whopping $ 3 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia and the supply of $7.5 billion worth of jets to Qatar in spite of their well known role in financing Islamist terrorism. As such, India will be expected to facilitate American FDI, place orders for mega defense deals and reduce protectionist barriers for US imports. The deal to supply 22 unarmed Guardian surveillance drones announced recently is a case in point; also, the proposed joint production of F-16 fighter jets in India. In fact, in his speech to the NRIs, Modi had stressed upon the business opportunities that India’s 1.3 billion strong market offers American industry and the steps taken by his government to make India a top investment destination.

3. Secondly, Trump would be interested in promoting American interests in the region and will look forward to cooperation from India in this regard. Counter terrorism operations and intelligence sharing would fall in this area. Additionally, Trump’s best option to counter China both in Af Pakistan as also in the South China Sea is to use India as a bulwark against Chinese expansionism. One can expect greater intelligence sharing as well as some support to India’s concerns.

4. From Modi’s viewpoint the expected takeaways would be greater US pressure on Pakistan so as to curb its sponsorship of terrorism in Kashmir, easing restrictions on H1B visas so as to safeguard the interests of India’s IT sector, transfer of high end defense technology, support for NSG membership, revitalization of the US India nuclear deal. As was pointed out by an American CEO after Modi’s meet with American industrialists, the Indian side has taken the right preparatory steps. Coincidentally, two nations which are often at odds with American interests and policy have provoked India on the eve of the summit China by denying Indian pilgrims access to Mansarovar and Iran by exhorting Muslims all over the world to support Kashmiri insurgency.

This affords a convenient opportunity for Modi to leverage towards greater American support in India against its two belligerent neighbours. Modi’s visit to Israel next month and that country’s warm response shall also enlist the support of the powerful Jewish lobby in India’s cause. The personal chemistry between these two strong willed leaders will have a strong bearing on the outcome and if all goes well one can expect some kind of a tacit understanding on how the Kashmir problem can be solved to India’s advantage. If so, one can legitimately expect some decisive action by the Indian government next month. The Indian home Minister too had hinted earlier this week that peace will dawn soon in the Valley.

5. India will do well to avoid at this stage any emphasis on the two thorny issues that may bedevil the negotiations US walkout from the Paris climate agreement and the restrictions on H1B visas. Both these issues are dear to Trump supporters and are likely to be red rags to the bull, to use a rather impolitic expression.

The Aftermath:

On the face of it, the Modi-Trump Summit went on expected lines. India avoided the twin thorny issues of H1B visas and climate change  an understand able tactic looking to Trump’s irascible unpredictability. India also refrained from pursuing its agenda on the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Security Council membership. There was thus a complete accommodation of American sensitivities on India’s part.

There was talk of freedom of navigation in the south east Asian region that was an outcome of the convergence of interests of the two countries visa vis Chinese expansionism there. There was an expression of their common concern for stability and orderly governance in Afghanistan.

The above would suggest that both sides were keen to avoid ruffling feathers of the other party. The concessions to each other’s interests was also reciprocal. Thus the US got the order for drones and the prospects of Westing house building nuclear reactors to India and Lockheed Martin F-16 jets. To the delight of Indian media, the US State Department designated Syed Salahuddin at global terrorist. Both these announcements came just prior to the meeting between the two leaders. From there on the one on one meeting between the two followed by the delegation level talks did not reveal any further surprises.

Thus on the surface it was a meeting between the two leaders did not alter the status quo ante in any significant manner. One can assume that the high point of the summit the personal meeting was inconsequential and to that extent Modi’s trip failed to deliver. But this would be a facile assumption, even unwarranted, given the emphasis by both leaders on curbing radical Islamic terrorism, mentioning safe havens afforded by Pakistan to terrorists and all but terming that country a terrorist state. Given the sensitive nature of the issue any headway or breakthrough in this regard would understandably be kept under wraps. Perhaps the real takeaway for India could not have been spelt out overtly in the joint statement or press meets. Behind the oblique reference to turbulence in the “Indian Valley of Kashmir” and the Pak sponsored terrorism there in the presser and the joint statement may lie the real gains of Modi’s trip to the US. If this is really so, then with Kashmir burning like never before we can expect some really decisive action by the Indian government in the coming months. And that may well sound the death knell of Kashmiri separatism.

 –  Dr Pradeep Bajpai

After a historical win, what are the challenges for this political newbie?

Emmanuel Macron is man on mission; surely people are disillusioned with the mainstream political parties. The change is sweeping the world and popular elections are throwing huge surprises. Post victory announcement, he has promised his cheering supporters he would fight to heal France’s divisions. As far as newspaper headlines go, describing Macron’s success, Metro’s “Le Big Mac” is possibly the most eye-catching. This is a big win – a huge win – for the 39-year-old former banker and virtual political newbie who will now become France’s youngest leader since Napoleon Bonaparte.

“What does Emmanuel Macron mean for France?”

Responses were euphoric but not particularly precise. “Hope” was a word I heard a lot; “something new”. But when I asked about his political programme, eyes went blank. And this is where the Big Mac comes in. Except that France has bought the burger without really knowing what’s in it.

This world economic and political power and key EU player is about to be presided over by a politician whose

person, party and policies are pretty much unexplored. That’s quite a gamble. One Macron issue that people are very clear on, though, is that he is not Marine Le Pen. That may seem screamingly obvious but it is largely the key to his electoral success. French voters desperately wanted change to stubbornly high youth unemployment rates, social inequality, a stagnant economy and the persistent terror risk.

They were keen on kicking out the old guard the traditional center-left and center-right parties that have governed France for decades – but they clearly favored “safe” change over a new French revolution, offered to them by the far left and the far right. More than 20 million voted for Macron, but millions of others did not vote or spoilt their ballots The fear and disgust in mainstream France at the very idea of Marine Le Pen as their national figure-head was palpable. Many Macron votes were simply by virtue of him not being her. And yet she still garnered one in three presidential votes on Sunday. Millions more stayed away or spoiled their ballots.

Macron is known as the French establishment’s anti establishment figure. This suggests it will now be quite a challenge to win over large sections of the French public. yes, he’s promised a new, dynamic France: socially just yet business-friendly, neither left- nor right-wing. But can he really dance at so many weddings all at the same time?

Marine Le Pen’s failure to win the presidency does not magically erase the social, economic and political reasons so many voters flocked to her in the first place. These sociopolitical divisions will become screamingly obvious in France now as it heads towards parliamentary elections. The EU too should exercise caution before popping another champagne bottle. If one Macron policy is well publicized, it’s his passionately Europhile credentials.

The president-elect is calling for EU reform but has conveyed a consistently pro European message, EU flags waved alongside the French tri color through- out his presidential campaign. He chose to make his first stage appearance after the election heralded by the tones of the EU anthem, Beethoven’s Ode to Joy. Brussels is cock-a-hoop that Eurosceptic nationalists have now been defeated at the polls in Austria, the Netherlands and France, with negligible chances of success for them in Germany this autumn.

But, and it’s a big but, the fact that populist politicians from the far right (and in some countries like France also the far left) have performed strongly in elections shows there is no blank cheque for the status quo. Voters expect change at home and in the EU. Emmanuel Macron promises to be a mixed blessing for Brussels. His reform proposals for deeper Eurozone integration will horrify German taxpayers for starters. Irresistible charm of France’s new leader is good or bad for Brexit? His commitment to EU unity will also worry the UK ahead of the start of formal Brexit negotiations. He’s promised to be tough. But is Emmanuel Macron flexing muscles he doesn’t yet have on the domestic and EU front?

Macron’s party was established just over a year ago and many of its candidates had little or no political experience. With all the ballots counted, Macron’s LREM and MoDem won 32.3% of the vote. The center right Republicans had 21.5%, while the far-right National Front (FN) had 13.2%, followed by the far-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) on just over 11%. The Socialists, previously France’s ruling party and their allies won just 9.5%. But turnout was sharply down, at 48.7% compared with 57.2% in the first round in 2012, which analysts said reflected a sense of resignation among Macron’s opponents.

There can be no disputing the extraordinary achievement of Emmanuel Macron. yes, he has certainly had luck but he has also foreseen with uncanny clarity how  with the right moves at the right places at the right times  the map of French politics was waiting to be redrawn. If the projections from the first round are sustained, then the change that is about to happen to the National Assembly is as big as the one that occurred in 1958 when Charles de Gaulle brought in the Fifth Republic.

Scores, hundreds, of new MPs will be arriving who have never set foot in a debating chamber of any kind, let alone the country’s legislature. It is all liable to bring a rush of blood to the head, and the greatest danger right now for Macron and En Marche is hubris. The victory is no doubt spectacular but so far it has all been electoral, phase two of the Macron master plan – actual reform – is the next challenge. And bigger.

What are the challenges for Macron?

He needs a majority to push through the changes that he promised in his campaign, which include: Budget savings of €60bn (£51bn; $65bn) in the next five years, Cutting the number of public servants by 120,000 & Reforming the lab-our market and generous state pension schemes, bringing them into line with private schemes But the pessimism in the country is reflective in the turnout was low, despite claims that President Macron had re energized the voting public. He has already left an impression around the world, in particular for standing up to US President Donald Trump on issues like climate change. After the projections were announced, a government spokesman said voters had shown they wanted to move fast on major reforms. President Macron must have to unite the nation and bring optimism in the people of France that under his leadership, the country is in safe hand.

François Baroin, head of the Republicans, said the low turnout testified to the “deep divisions in French society” and was “extremely worrying”. FN leader Marine Le Pen blamed her party’s poor performance on the low turnout, saying France’s electoral system, which favors larger parties, needed to be reformed. FN leader Marine Le Pen said the electoral system led to low turnout

“This catastrophic abstention rate should raise the question of the voting rules which keep millions of our compatriots away from the polling stations,” she said. Socialist leader Jean Christophe Cambadélis, who lost his seat in the first round, warned voters against giving LREM an absolute majority next Sunday. He said it would result in “virtu- ally no real opposition and we will have a National Assembly without any real counterbalance, without a democratic debate and not worthy of that name”. Elsewhere, German Chancellor Angela Merkel who, like Mr Macron, has a pro-EU stance congratulated him on the “great success” of his party. It was a “vote for reforms”, tweeted (in German) her spokesman, Steffen Seibert.

Who was eliminated?

The first round saw some political heavyweights knocked out. Most of the big-name casualties were Socialists. Besides party leader Cambadélis, eliminated in Paris, their ill-fated presidential candidate Benoît Hamon lost in yvelines, just west of Paris. Other prominent Socialists knocked out included: Matthias Fekl (ex-interior minister), Aurélie Filippetti (ex-culture minister) and Elisabeth Guigou (previously European affairs minister, justice minister, social affairs minister).

Prominent first-round casualties were Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, Benoît Hamon and Henri Guaino, The ex-leader of the Greens, Cécile Du flot, a former housing minister, was eliminated in Paris. Two prominent FN politicians party campaign manager Nicolas Bay and Jean-Lin Lacapelle were knocked out. And the big losers among the centre-right candidates were Senegalese-born Rama yade and Henri Guaino, a former top aide to ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Mr Guaino had fallen out with former Republican colleagues before the vote, and castigated voters in his central Paris constituency. “The electorate… just makes me want to throw up,” he said. He labelled them “egotistical bobos (bohemians)” and conservative Catholic “bourgeoisie” like those who supported the Vichy French Pétain regime in World War Two.

Macron has shown tremendous maturity in dealing with the delicate issues like country’s NATO participation despite USA bulling its European allies. The Russian President Putin visit to France was gracefully conducted by Mr Macron. French President personal equation with German Chancellor is likely to consolidate European Union. However handling Mr Donald Trump will be a challenge for Mr Macron. The new world order has China and India as the two major players. President Emmanuel Macron must balance west and east world to take his country forward.

– BY Opinion Express News Desk

The UK has seen some incredible developments over the past few years. No sooner had PM Cameron won the public vote in 2015 that he declared the date for the EU referendum, otherwise known as Brexit. At that time, I had advised the politicians that for the UK, Brexit was the right choice and indeed in my view, the British electorate would choose that as their preferred option. On Thursday June 23, 2016, the British electorate did exactly as I had predicted and voted to leave the EU. This set into motion a series of events that have hitherto never happened before. Within hours PM Cameron stepped down as the Prime Minister. He really had no choice since he backed the ‘remain’ campaign which obviously failed.

Of course, this led immediately to the selection of the next Conservative Party leader and therefore the new PM of UK. And what a battle that turned  out to be with the likes of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Theresa May all throwing their hats in the ring. The victor as we now know was PM T May.

The Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats also lost their leaders at the same time and we had several months when every major party in the UK was scrambling to select their new leader. In the end the Labour Party chose MP Jeremy Corbyn and the Liberal Democrats MP Tim Farron.

The stage was set to action Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. The first step in the process of the UK is leaving the EU. Months of turmoil with opposition politicians playing all the games they could, to if not halt the process, to slow it down to a crawl. In the end, PM May put the opposition to the sword in a parliamentary vote, and guess what, the Article 50 Bill passed in Parliament by a margin of 498 to 114. So much so for the defiant opposition that crumbled in the wake of ground reality, that being that the British public would not stand for any politician who stood in the way of the decision they had made.

Under normal circumstances one would have thought that the matter was settled and the British government should just get on with the task in hand. However, modern politics is no longer that straight forward. The opposition which has a majority in the upper house (House of Lords) declared that they would do everything to frustrate the process and by so doing, undermine the negotiating strength of the British Government for Brexit. The European bureaucrats in Brussels were loving this, knowing they also wanted to make life hard for Britain as well. As it turned out, most of the leading economic indicators continued to be favourable to the British economy. The doom merchants were being proven wrong as Britain continued to outshine most of its European partners.

having already lost one referendum for independence wanted to instigate another one. The SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon saw an opportunity of the Brexit vote and used that to promote her favourite policy for independence. However, the continuous sniping by British opposition politicians finally pushed PM May to decide enough was enough. PM May out foxed not only the opposition, and the media, but her own party members when she declared The Scottish National Party (SNP) that she wanted a snap election to take place on 8th June 2017. In the UK, we have what is called a ‘Fixed Parliament Act’. In effect, it means an election take place every 5 years. If you want one earlier, then Parliament must vote by 2/3rd majority for it to take place. Generally speaking, this would mean getting the opposition to vote with the Government of the day. Of course, when PM May threw this gauntlet down she knew that the main opposition had no choice but to back her call for an early election. Namely, how on

The state of play for the main political parties is as follows:

earth can any opposition run timid from an election? Even when it knows it’s in a bad way, political expediency means the Labor Party had no choice but to say yes.

trend in voting intentions of the British electorate. It does not take a genius to conclude that short of a minor miracle, the Labor Party will be defeated with devastating ease. They say that on cur- rent polling the seat sharing might look like: Con=388, Lab=177, LDem=7 and UKIP=0. The SNP in Scotland = 56. In my view, there is much that can still happen. As they say a week in politics is a long time.

This is of course just an exercise in playing with numbers. My interpretation is kept simple. The Conservative Party will win with ease and have a significant majority to get most of its legislation through the next Parliament. They will have 5 years in which to cement in their advantage subject to their policies working out and the public don’t get tired of the leadership.

The Labor Party will be crippled to such a degree that either it will have to dump its current unpopular leader, Jeremy Corbyn and get in a centrist like David Miliband (yes you read that correctly) or the Party as it stands will have to split. One faction (supported by most of its MPs) will try to galvanize the center ground in politics whilst the other faction will turn into a far left party with its dedicated core voters synchronized with its far-left ideology. What we can say is that unless the Labor Party takes some very tough decisions, and quickly, it won’t get into power in Britain for a good decade and maybe even longer. Make no bones, this is now crunch time for the Labor Party, it’s very existence is now in question and if it fails then don’t be too surprised if a Center Left Party emerges of a coalition of colors to challenge the incumbent Government.

what does all this mean for uK and India relations?

The answer in simple, there is a huge opportunity to reset the relation- ship so it is fit for the 21st Century. Britain is no longer an imperial power with an Empire to govern. It is a small island, be it a very important and influential island, just off the coast of Eu- rope. The fact that UK will be free of the EU means anything and everything is now on the table for discussions. The fact that India has emerged as an established 21st century powerhouse means it can demand, and it will get, what it needs. Be that from the UK or a host of other countries around the world lining up to cost with the new India under the stewardship of its internationally popular leader, PM Narendra Modi.

Both these countries, linked by history of course, find themselves in very similar situations. To face the 21st Century with new found freedom, new opportunities and renewed self confidence. Deals are there to be made in the interest of both. India finds itself in a powerful position that it has not seen for thousands of years. I have no doubt that these two old partners will find a new working relationship based on respect and shared values.

Europe on the other hand is in dire straits. The free for all immigration policies of the past decade are now catching up with devastating consequences. The majority of European politicians live in their ivory towers. They hide behind politically correct rhetoric and platitudes ignoring the plight of their own people and the surge of negativity being unleashed from the silent majority via the new social media networks. The establishment elite can no longer control in- formation flow and the diet of misinformation it depended upon to hoodwink the electorate. The news media that has failed to properly scrutinize the so called politically correct rhetoric is also coming in for some legitimate roasting. When politicians fail their electorate, the media ignore the truth for want of being PC – then it’s only a matter of time before the inevitable happens. And this we have witnessed in France with the far-right leader Maria Le Pen being elevated to new heights of being able to challenge for the French presidency. Think about it, in a major European country like France there is a huge proportion of people so disenfranchised that they are willing to vote for the very extreme far-right group. That means at the very grass roots millions of citizens are shouting, enough is enough, ignore us at your peril.

Brexit does not make the British electorate racist. The French have not suddenly become racist. And we can say that for most European countries now. What we see and experience is a cry for help from a sizeable silent majority. Unfortunately, the downside being that many of us who are classified as immigrants end up getting the brunt of these failed political policies.

The challenge for the EU is to accept its mistakes and correct them urgently. In my view, they won’t do that with the resultant outcome, massive street wide public disturbances on a regular basis. In 2017/18, we will see the streets of Europe resemble war zone, and folks that is no exaggeration.

In the upcoming British elections, win for the Conservative Party is clear and so on 9th June a new era beacons and I for one would hope that for India and UK, it means a much more productive relationship that safe guards each country not only on the economic front, but also from the advances of extremism and terrorism.

The Labor Party in Britain has increasingly moved towards the Islamic community in particular towards the Pakistani community. It seems it is now very much reliant on the Pakistani community for votes en masse to ensure it secures some of their seats. This has created a situation whereby it is now seen by many as anti-Hindu and anti-Jew. Both of these communities are looking at the Conservative party as a natural home for them in the knowledge that at least there are some aspects of shared values and goals. The Labor Party born from the Unions is also seen to be edging ever closer to some militant unions and with that many of moderate voters feel left out. We see many of these voters begin to move away from the Labor Party in favor of the Conservatives. What is even more surprising is that the working class roots of the Labor Party also feel that they have been abandoned by their own party. We have seen a size- able proportion of this group voting for Brexit as well as UKIP (very much the right of right party in the UK). For India one could conclude easily that a defeat for the Labor Party is the best option. The Conservatives offer the best choice for the best partnerships now and for the future. I would not be too surprised if PM Modi builds on the excellent relations he forged with PM Cameron and can now enhance those with his interaction with PM May.

With Brexiton its way, and with the General Election on 8th June, I see my glass to be full, half with new found freedom and half with new opportunities for the new millennial. This is a time to forge stronger bonds to protect the economy, but to stand firm against the disease of extremism and terrorism that affects both our countries.

 – OE News Bureau

Gurdwaras in Manchester extended a helping help and offered shelter to those affected and stranded by Tuesday’s deadly Manchester Arena blast.

“Sikh Temples in Manchester, UK offering food & accommodation. They are open for ALL people. #PrayForManchester #ManchesterArena #England,” tweeted Harjinder S Kukreja along with the address of the four Sikh temples located in the vicinity. The gurdwaras are Sri Guru Gobind Singh Gurdwara Educational & Cultural Center located at 57 Upper Chorlton Rd, Manchester M16 7RQ; Gurdwara Sri Guru Harkrishan Sahib located at 12 Sherborne St, Manchester M3 1FE, Dasmesh Sikh Temple located at 98 Heywood St, Manchester M8 0DT and Central Gurdwara Manchester located at 32 Derby St, Manchester M8 8Ry.

The locals in the area also took to Twitter to offer shelter to those affected. In what could be described as one of the worst terror attacks in Britain, at least 22 people were killed and dozens of other injured as a suspected suicide bomber carried out a carnage during an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester.

The explosion occurred near the foyer area of the arena in what is being reported as a “nail bomb attack”.

A man found dead at the scene is thought to be the probable suicide bomber, according to reports.

Last, England saw such a deadly terror attack was in 2005 when on July 7, terrorists carried out a series of coordinated suicide bomb attacks in central London which targeted civilians using the public transport system during the  rush hour. Fifty-two people were killed and over 700 more were injured in the attacks.

Also, in 2009, the Manchester police had thwarted a major terror bid to attack Manchester’s Arndale shopping centre on the busy Easter bank holiday weekend.

With up to 90,000 shoppers in or near the shopping center at the time, police believe an attack would have killed hundreds and maimed thousands.

A student identified as Abid Naseer, 29, who plotted the mass suicide bomb attack was jailed for 40 years in 2015.

 – OE News Bureau

Between the 16th-18th centuries, Brazil and Goa, both out- posts of the Portuguese imperialist outreach, had exchanges, which found reflection in the flora and fauna, food and dress as well as folk traditions of Brazil. The interesting similarities between folk traditions of ‘Boi Bumba’ in the north of Brazil and the Poikam Kudharai’ of South India draw attention to the strong under currents of cultural and popular exchanges that have taken place in the centuries by gone.Both are large developing countries, stable, secular, multi-cultural, multi-ethnic, large democracies as well as trillion-dollar economies, hence although the two countries are divided by geography and distance, they share common democratic values and developmental aspirations.

Considering the frequent Bilateral Interactions between India and Brazil in the recent years, India-Brazil bilateral relations are in a state of clearly discernible upswing, the Prestigious Awards, Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding for 2006 and Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disarmament and Development for 2010 conferred on President Lula of Brazil confers the shared vision of India and Brazil on an common ideology .

The constructive exchange of VVIPs, Ministerial and official-level visits in recent years clearly define the strengthening of bilateral relationship in various fields and forging of close cooperation and coordination in the multilateral arena, be in IBSA, BRICS, G-4, BASIC, G-20 summits and the recent BRICS Summit in Goa, India 2016 . An evolving bilateral order to name a many important few , the visits from India since vice President S. Radhakrishnan (1954), Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (1968), Prime Minister Narasimha rao (1992 for earth Summit), President K.R. Narayanan (1998), ,President Pratibha Patil (2008) and Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh (June 2012-for Rio+20 summit)., Shri Pranab Mukherjee, Minister of External Affairs (Feb 2008), Shri P. Chidambaram, Finance Minister from India (Nov 2008) ,Shri Jairam Ramesh, Honorable Minister of environment & Forests (to attend the BASIC Ministerial ), Mr. Jyotiraditya Scindia, Minister for State for Commerce and Industry (September 2010, April 2011), Mr. Sharad Pawar, Minister of Agriculture, Food and Civil Supplies, Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution )and other dignitaries and the honorable visits from Brazil to India since Celso Amorim, Foreign Minister of Brazil (April, July 2007 and September 2009) and as Defense Minister in February 2012, Minister of Industry and Foreign trade Mr. Miguel Jorge (March and October 2008) and Minister of Defence Nelson Jobin (March 2010),Foreign Minister Mr. Antonio Patriota visited India for IBSA Ministerial and Brazil-India JCM in December 2011 and VVIP visits of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1996),President Lula (2004, 2007 & 2008) ,President Dilma Rousseff in March 2012 to attend the 4th BRICS Summit and bilateral trade Summit and President temer in BrICS Summit on 2016 ,culminated in signing of the important Bilateral Agreements, MOUs , Extradition Treaty, Cooperation in Tourism, Space, S&T, Air Services, Oil and Natural Gas, Audio-Visual Co-production, Academic Exchanges, Infrastructure, Hunger and Poverty, Civil Defense and Humanitarian Assistance, Agriculture and Allied Sectors, Plant Health Protection, Human Settlements, Biotechnology, Technical Cooperation, Education, Metrology and Gender Equity.

On a sufficing visionary notes on the economic and commercial relations between the two countries and its bilateral trade crossing US $ 10 Billion in 2012 mark, states a historical note which includes – India’s imports: US$ 5,577 billion on Crude oil, copper sulfates, soya oil, Raw sugar, denatured alcohol, other minerals of copper and its concentrates, asbestos, valves, motor pumps, airplanes, wheat, precious and semi-precious stones and India’s exports: US$ 5,043 billion on Diesel oil, coke of coal, lignite or peat, equipment’s related to wind energy, engineering and electrical equipment, cotton and polyester yarns, naphtha, pigments, medicines and chemicals. Brazil is the most important trading partner of India in the entire LAC (Latin America and Caribbean) region. India and Brazil bilateral trade has increased substantially in the last two decades. However, the most impressive change is taking place now as the trade is becoming more diversified both geographically as well as qualitatively. In 2011 about two third of our bilateral trade of US$ 9.2 billion was oil products, whereas in 2012 this proportion has become less than half in our bilateral trade of US$ 10.6 billion.

India and Brazil have formed a bi- lateral trade Monitoring Mechanism (TMM) for periodic consultations. India signed a framework agreement with Mercosur in June 2003. the India Mercosur PTA entered into force on 1st June 2009 under which 450 items from each side will have duty reductions of 10% to 100%. Efforts are underway to broaden and deepen the India-Mercosur PTA and to link it, under IBSA to SACU as well.

India has also welcomed many Brazilian students under ITEC programme for training in communications, management and defense.

On the Cultural arena, The Brazilian interests in India are vast. Recently, the Brazilian Consulate in Mumbai organised a Brazilian Latin festival in Mumbai under the guidance of our versatile Consul General of Brazil in Mumbai, Ms Rosimar Suzano to portray the Cultural metamorphosis of Brazilian music as a Yogic fervor, performing arts and philosophy. on an extended note, a similar thread was woven too by Ms Suzano and the Ambassador to Brazil in India Mr Nunes on the 194th Anniversary of Brazilian National Day in Mumbai on 7th September 2016 , emphasizing on Sports and its bilateral connections with India during the curtain raiser of the Rio Olympics in Brazil 2016, where the Indian Contingent had a considerably large sports persons. Few of them from Maharashtra were specialty felicitated on the National Day of Brazil in association with Nena records and Productions and Mr Manish Tewari of ITV Networks (India News and News X TV Channels), India.

Nena Records and Productions, India and Brazil encompassed daily large segments in covering the numerous organizations, teaching Yoga all over Brazil in Ramakrishna Mission, ISKCON, Satya Sai Baba, Maharishi Maharshi Yogi and Bhakti Vedanta Foundation along with the wide coverage of sports segments of Brazilian and Indian athletes in Rio Olympics 2016 as special added episodes on Rio Olympics 2016.

Mahatma Gandhi is highly regarded in Brazil and the government and NGOs are trying to circulate the philosophy of non-violence among students, youth and even police. Statues of Mahatma Gandhi have been installed in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Londrina. The Brazilian cultural troupe had given splendid performances in India in 2008 and a large group of Indian artists gave several popular performances in several Brazilian cities in May-June 2011 in association with ICCR ( Indian Council of Cultural Research Ministry of Tourism Government of India )

the airing of the ‘telenovela’ and the popular Indian TV series ‘ Caminho Das Indias ‘(Paths to India) by the influntial O Globo television made a great impact in enhancing the consciousness of India in the Brazilian public mind and greatly contributed to the warmth and friendliness in the common masses of Brazil.

the Indian Association in Sao Paulo along with the Indian community of PIos /NrIs numbering 2000 in Brazil mainly comprising of professionals and businessmen, scientists/researchers in agriculture, physics regularly conduct bilateral events to further the bond between the two countries. A majority of them lives in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Manaus. the Indian Consulate General in Sao Paulo, the industrial and commercial hub of Brazil, was opened in 1996. the Brazilian embassy has been functional in India since 1949 and has Consulate General in Mumbai.

The Recent breakthrough on the 8th BRICS Summit 2016 marks a major step forward to the spirit of the Goa Declaration. the outcomes of the meetings of BRICS Labor and employment Ministers held on June 9 last year in Geneva and on September 27-28, 2016 in New Delhi, India and Brazil today initiated the text of the Social Security Agreement in Brasilia. the text establishes the rights and obligations of nationals of both countries and provides for equal treatment of the nationals of both countries and unrestricted payment of pensions even in the case of residence in the other contracting state (benefits export principle).

the SSA between India and Brazil once brought into force by early 2018,after completion of the ratification process in the respective counties will favorably impact the profitability and competitive position of Indian and Brazilian companies with foreign operations in either country by reducing their cost of doing business abroad. the SSA will also help promote more investment flows between the two countries. The Indian delegation was led by K. Nagaraj Naidu; Joint Secretary (Economic Diplomacy) of the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India and the Brazilian delegation was led by Mr. Benedito A. Brunca, Secretary (Social Security Policies), Ministry of Finance, Government of Brazil.

After holding wide ranging talks in the BRICS Summit in Goa with Brazilian President Michel Temer, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India deeply appreciated Brazil’s support to its actions in combating terror, noting both countries will work for early adoption of the Comprehensive Convention Against International terrorism (CCIT) by the UN. In the talks, Temer supported New Delhi’s bid for membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and conveyed to Modi that Brazil will work with other member countries of the elite bloc to facilitate India’s entry into it.

Modi said he has sought greater market access and investment opportunities for Indian products and companies in Brazil and was “thankful” for Temer’s “positive consideration”. Talking about Brazil’s priority to reviving the domestic economy, Modi said India can be a valuable partner in it. He welcomed Brazilian companies to come and invest in India and to forge long-term commercial partnerships. the two leaders also met a group of Ceos of top companies from both countries to explore ways to deepen economic engagement to progress in opening new areas of co- operation on drug regulation, agricultural research and cyber security issues. President temer and PM Modi also agreed to intensify and strengthen their coordination in important international fora and resolved to work closely at the United Nations, the G-20, G-4, WTO, BRICS and IBSA

on the the visit of the Brazilian delegation to Mumbai on Oct 2016 on a mission to explore new vistas for trade, commerce and investment, spearheaded Ms. Rosimar da Silva Suzano, Consul General of Brazil in Mumbai at the International Business round table organized by World trade Center Mumbai, All India Association of Industries, Apex Brasil and Ministry of Foreign Affairs Brazil at the World Trade Center Mumbai, confined that, “Brazil’s trade with India has immense scope for expansion which currently accounts for 1.21% of India’s total trade. the total trade between India and Brazil is at USD 6.69 billion in 2015-16. The market opportunities exist in the areas of food and drinks (coffee, tea, fruits, cocoa, and confectionary products), home and building (woods), machinery and equipment (vehicles and auto parts), mineral products and chemicals. Brazil has recently launched a new infrastructure Program, ‘Crescer’ (meaning ‘grow’) which will focus on concession, privatization and public-private partnerships, Brazil and India should rather look for complementarities and synergies between their respective markets and mind-sets in order to in- crease and upgrade their business potential. For more business to take place there should be more people to people exchanges. I am a strong believer of people-to-people relations to cement long-term and sustainable partnerships as under the ‘Make in India’ initiative, India is undergoing a series of reforms that are in the process of enhancing the competitiveness of the country.

Ms. Lara Gurgel, representing Apex- Brasil, said, “India and Brazil share a special relationship and tremendous opportunities lie between them especially in natural resources besides agriculture, food processing, oil & gas, mining, textile, spinning and with the successful conclusion of the 8th BRICS Summit in Goa, member countries should work towards the success of BRICS. Both Ms Suzano and Ms Gurgel appreciated the growth at a rate of 7.6 percent which is possible first and foremost by providing concession in freight costs.. they also emphasized on the technology segment which India requires and can be fulfilled through collaborative efforts with Brazil.

Adding further on the bilateral tie ups of India and Brazil, Rosimar Da Silva Suzano, Consul General of Brazil (Mumbai) stated that, “The BRICS, gave powerful impetus to the identification and development of specific bilateral and joint projects in strategic sectors such as agriculture, renewable energy, science and technology and paved sustainable and inclusive solutions to the global problems”,

Ms. Suzano while addressing a seminar on ‘BRICS-Challenges and opportunities’ organised jointly by Center for Latin American Studies, Goa University in collaboration with International Centre, Goa, emphasized, “that a stronger BRICS equals a more equitable world order as no country can by itself respond to today’s challenges, by pooling capabilities, resources and ideas over shared concerns BRICS is giving the world its contribution, at the same time ensuring its members a fair stake in the decision making process. She also recalled that 2008 global financial crisis confirmed the realization among the emerging economies that they should have a voice in the decision-making mechanisms put in place at the Bretton Woods Conference in the aftermath of the II World War that no longer met the demands of a globalized world economy. She advocated more reforms in global financial institutions and more investment in infrastructure in BRICS and emerging economies. With the New Development Bank (NDB), BRICS will have funds to finance infrastructure projects at the BRICS countries or in other emerging third world countries”

Describing Brazil as a proactive member of the BRICS, Ms. Suzano said, ‘Brazil saw BRICS as a window of opportunities not to be missed, and went on to recall that since inception, her country saw BRICS as an ideal space for dialogue, and consensus, identification of convergences and expansion of contacts and cooperation in specific sectors amongst its members. She said to handle issues of the global agenda the vision that is BRICS shall be open to constructively cooperate and engage with third countries as well as international and regional organizations. She also lauded the role of initiatives such as cultural exchanges, civil society dialogue and parliamentary meetings as having potential to generate new ideas of global governance and come up with inclusive solutions.

“BRICS offered a forum for deliberation and collective position taking a space to create a positive agenda and search for common ground within the international scene, an arena for intra co-operation in a gamut of subjects and sectors .Being an ardent supporter of multilateralism, she added ,”Brazil believes in the partnerships in different groupings”. the consul general said BRICS should have a collective response towards inter state wars, climate change and natural disaster. She admitted that BRICS has helped Brazil improve its bi- lateral trade to a great extent.

“At a time when the bilateral trade was mere 500 million dollars in 2005, it reached 11.5 billion dollars in 2014, despite the country’s economy being in doldrums,” she added.

to conclude on all the visionary and strong developments on Trade , Business , Economic and Cultural elevations, positive developments and ongoing growth between India and Brazil the visa issues need to be in- formed too to further the Indo Brazilian ties which states that under a bilateral agreement, diplomatic and official passport holders are exempted from visa for a stay of maximum of 90 days. And although there are no direct flights between India and Brazil, convenient connections are however available via Europe (London, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam), the US (New York and Chicago) and via Dubai. A Point to be pondered for an easy ‘Air viability’ for the Business and Corporate sectors of both Brazil and India for a smooth direct travel radar.

 – Carlyta Mohini (The writer is a leading Indo Brazilian Columnist on International Diplomatic issues and Politics, World Trade /Tourism/Heritage/Music and Global Fusion Vocalist (ICCR) /Songwriter)

BEIJING: The US move to create a naval base in northern Australia close to the South China Sea can actually mean more dollars in the Indian kitty, and put more strategic and business opportunities in New Delhi’s way, sources said. The first piece of evidence has come by way of Australia’s decision to selluranium to India.

The US move will provide a sense of protection to East Asian countries including Japan, who have serious conflicts with China but buy vast amounts of Chinese goods. The new found protection will encourage East Asia to reduce its dependence on China for goods and enhance economic ties with India, sources said.

“Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia will feel more secure. India and Indonesia can get together to control the Malacca Straits, which is the route though which 90% of Chinese goods to East Asia passes,” Subramanian Swamy, Janata Party president and a widely regarded China expert, told TNN.

There are signs that China is jittery about the US move to station 2,500 US marines in the Northern Territory of Australia within five years. Beijing on Thursday warned Australia it might get “caught in the crossfire” if it allows the US to exercise its naval might in the waters around it. Washington’s move has put the US navy within easy sailing reach of Vietnam, which is involved in a serious territorial dispute over oil rich islands in the South China Sea.

The move will also bring some relief to the ONGC, which is one of the foreign companies involved in exploring oil along with Vietnamese oil firms in the South China Sea. China has bitterly criticized India on the move and asked ONGC to withdraw.

When it comes to exporting to East Asia, India cannot replace China, which has a wide range of goods to offer, Uday Bhaskar, director of the National Maritime Foundation, said.

“But there is a strategic review of the bilateral relation with India by the US, EU and Japan, wherein Indian markets are being recognized as an important driver of trade in the region,” Bhaskar added.

India will need to retool its export basket if it seriously wishes to compete with China as a provider of goods in East Asia, he said.

The US move can also mean massive savings in investments being made by the Indian defense agencies on the India China border, Abhijit Iyer Mitra, research officer at the Institute of Conflict Studies in New Delhi, said.

“This is God sent. The more US ramps up its military presence in South China Sea, the more it will divert Beijing’s attention from India,” he said.

“It can actually mean a big saving on investments being made on the China border. But I doubt if our defense establishment would make the best of the opportunity. They are too attached to big budget,” he said.

 – OE News Bureau

As President Barack Obama’s budget aimed at rebuilding the country’s economy, emerging ‘from the worst recession in generations’, looks at India as ‘one of the most important and promising emerging markets in the world’.

Obama’s proposed $3.7 trillion spending plan for 2011 hopes to ‘win the future by out-innovating, out-educating, and out-building our global competitors and creating the jobs and industries of tomorrow’, according to the White House.

‘India is one of the most important and promising emerging markets in the world, and represents a tremendous opportunity for US firms to expand their output of goods and services,’ the budget proposal presented Monday said.

‘On the margins of the president’s trip to India in November, trade transactions were announced or showcased exceeding $14.9 billion in total value with $9.5 billion in US export content and that would support an estimated 53,670 jobs,’ the White House noted.

These cross border collaborations, both public and private, underpin the expanding US-India strategic partnership, contributing to economic growth and development in both countries, it said. Notable examples include the sale of commercial and military air- craft, gas and steam turbines and precision measurements instrumentation. The budget proposals said the emergence of a global market place that includes the growing economies of China, India and other developing counties creates an opportunity for America to export US goods and services to new customers.

‘With 95 percent of the world’s customers as well as the globe’s fastest growing markets beyond our borders, we must compete aggressively to spur economic growth and job creation,’ the budget said. Obama’s third annual budget says that it can reduce projected deficits by $1.1 trillion over the next decade, enough to stabilise the nation’s fiscal health and buy time to address its longererm problems, the New York Times said citing a senior administration official.

Two-thirds of the reductions that Obama claims are from cuts in spending, including in many domestic programmes that he supports.Among the reductions for just the next fiscal year, 2012, which starts Oct 1, are more than $1 billion from airport grants and nearly $1 billion from grants to states for water treatment plants and similar projects. Public health and forestry programmes would also be cut. With Republicans in charge of the House, Obama’s budget is more a statement of his priorities and philosophy than an actual template for federal spending and tax policy, the Times noted.

 – Arun Kumar  (Arun Kumar can be contacted at arun.kumar@ians.in)

Just when oil markets appeared to be calming, crude oil prices surged as the potential for more oil shipment disruptions spread across the Middle East and North Africa.With Libya’s oil exports almost entirely halted for the last several days, renewed unrest in Oman, Iran and Iraq rattled oil traders. An interruption of shipments from any of those countries would further tighten oil supplies, even as Saudi Arabia has rushed to fill the vacuum of Libyan supplies by pumping more oil from its fields.

The worries about the oil supply rippled through other markets, with stock markets turning lower on concerns that the higher cost of energy would slow economic recovery. Gold prices also surged on the latest reports, and indexes on Wall Street declined sharply, with the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 1.3 percent. The Saudi Arabian benchmark stock index fell 6.8 percent.In the latest sign that the political contagion was spreading, demonstrators in Oman on Tuesday tried to block a major road leading to the industrial port town of Sohar. Protesters in recent days have set fire to at least one police station and two government office buildings in the normally stable Persian Gulf country, which is ruled by a family dynasty and is the largest non OPEC oil producer in the Middle East.”To have protests in Oman, which had previously been seen as a sleepy gulf kingdom, heightens concerns that nowhere is immune from the contagion affects,” said Helima L. Croft, a director and senior geopolitical analyst at Barclays Capital. “Every day we seem to have a new country with a new problem.”

Oman produces 860,000 barrels of oil daily, almost 1 percent of world supplies, and its production has been rising in recent years with investments from Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Repsol and other international companies. Its importance is magnified by the fact that its crude is of such quality that it can be blended by most refineries around the world, although most of its exports now go to China and Japan. Oman straddles the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route through which 40 percent of the world’s oil tanker traffic crosses. On the other side of the strait lies Iran, another major producer, where there were reports on Tuesday that security forces had used tear gas to disperse protesters in Tehran. Iran, with approximately 10 per- cent of the world’s oil reserves, exports about 3.7 million barrels a day.

The price of light sweet crude rose to $99.63 a barrel while Brent crude rose 3.24 percent to $115.42. Oil jumped above $100 a barrel in after-hours trading in New York. The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline rose by nearly a penny on Tuesday to just over $3.37, which is 20 cents higher than a week ago.

In testimony on Capitol Hill, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said that it would take a sustained increase in oil prices to push up consumer inflation significantly and threaten the economy. “Currently the cost pressures from higher commodity prices are being offset by the stability in unit labor costs,” he added.The rising tensions across the region sent the Saudi Arabian stock market into a tailspin, with Saudi shares suffering the biggest daily decline in more than two years despite rising oil prices. The Saudi index fell 6.8 percent, to its lowest close since July 2009.

Refiners around the world have been hoping that Iraq, as violence ebbed, would again become a major oil producer, with production stabilising at 2.3 million barrels a day. But over the weekend rebels bombed the country’s largest refinery, reducing the refinery’s capacity to refine petroleum products by 75,000 barrels a day. The attack came less than three weeks after a terrorist attack on a pipeline leading to a second refinery north of Baghdad.Greg Priddy, an oil analyst at the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said it was “highly unlikely” that output in another major producer in the region would be shut off. But he said that markets were jittery because “if the Saudis are going to make up for the shortfall in Libya, their spare capacity is thinner.”

He added, “Another major country going out completely would use most of their spare capacity, and that is really what the market is worried about.”

Saudi Arabia has a total production capacity of 12.5 million barrels a day, and currently produces nine million barrels after increasing its output by several hundred thousand since the beginning of the year. Saudi officials say they are ready to pump what it takes to fill any supply gap, but much of its 3.5 million barrel excess capacity contains sour crudes that do not easily replace the Libyan sweet crude European refineries in particular desire to produce diesel. In Libya, major oil operations in the eastern part of the country remained under the control of rebel forces. While foreign operators withdrew most of their foreign workers, local Libyan employees can still produce some crude. Oil experts say at least one million of the country’s 1.6 million barrels a day of production has been shut down.

Little if any oil can be shipped out of Libya because most ports were closed. Meanwhile, storage tanks were filling up rapidly. Oil traders said one major oil company cargo ship was supposed to berth this week, but no one was at the port to deliver an oil shipment, and shipping companies were reluctant to send ships into the Libyan ports.

Most fields in Libya are operated by a combination of the National Oil Company, which owns 50 percent of the fields, and international consortium, which share the other half.

The Arabian Gulf Oil Company, the largest subsidiary of the Libya National Oil Corporation, claims it had broken off from its mother company. It said it would honor its contracts but would divert the funds to the opposition, not to Tripoli.Arabian Gulf’s Hamada field had been shut, and output at Nafoora, Sarir and Misla had dropped to under half of maxi- mum capacity.The company was still exporting crude at the Tobruk terminal, according to a re- port by PFC Energy, a consulting firm, but Arabian Gulf has stated that with only sporadic loading operations, it could reach its maximum storage capacity within two weeks, even with the drastically reduced production levels.Arabian Gulf officials “have claimed that the company’s export revenues will no longer be controlled by its parent company,” PFC Energy said in the report, “but have not been able to confirm how those revenues would be managed by the subsidiary or potentially channelled to Libya’s opposition.”Eni, the Italian oil giant and largest foreign operator in Libya, evacuated most of its employees and their families last week. The company’s fields were still producing 120,000 barrels a day of oil and natural gas, about half their capacity before the re- volt began. The company declined to say which fields it had shut down and which were still in operation, citing safety concerns. Eni still has 21 Italian employees in Libya, a spokesman said.

(Courtesy: Clifford Krauss & Jad Mouawad, The New York Times..)