After panchayat polls in West Bengal, violence continued with four deaths from different regions taking the toll to 23 in past 36 hours, reported by the sources. Unsubstantiated reports put Tuesday’s toll at 5 taking the total number of poll-related deaths to 24 even as fresh violence was reported from far flung areas of Coochbehar, Raiganj, South 24 Parganas, Howrah and two Midnapores.

This, even as a mischievously silent State Election Commission engaged in weighing up observers’ reports for a final verdict on whether it was prepared to order re-poll in 500-plus booths from where micro-observers have sent adverse observations on Monday’s violence-torn elections. Three political workers one each from Trinamool Congress, BJP and CPI(M) were murdered in Coochbehar, North Dinajpur and South Dinajpur, sources said while two persons were found dead with bullet and bomb injuries in East Midanpore. Monday’s elections had claimed 19 lives and over 200 people sustained bomb and gun injuries in political clashes whereas hundreds of booths were either looted or rigged, some in the presence of police and even by police personnel, opposition parties alleged. Tuesday saw more violence at Basanti village in South 24 Parganas were two groups of Trinamool Congress clashed with bombs and guns leaving about half-a-dozen people injured. Meanwhile, the BJP on Tuesday launched a scathing attack on Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee for her acts of political treachery.

Attacking Banerjee for her tendency to “stab in the back,” BJP leader Kailash Vijaybargiya said “Mamata Banerjee is a habitual traitor. She would not have come to power had she not been supported by the BJP but she is now killing our people.

“Without Atal Behari Vajpayee’s support she would not have become the leader she is now. But first thing she did after coming to power was to stab in the BJP’s back. But she will have to repent for this in the coming elections. ”

On what the BJP’s strategy would be in the 2019 elections considering the violence the TMC resorts to in every elections, the saffron leader said “That election will be conducted by the national Election Commission which has been taking note of all that is happening here. Besides half of her Cabinet colleagues will be in jail in another six month’s time. Most of her own leaders will not be by her side by then.

“She loves none but her own self and her nephew. All others are used by her and then thrown away. See what she did to Mukul Roy. But now her days are coming and she will feel the consequence of her treachery.”

Writer: Saugar Sengupta

Courtesy: The Pioneer

Rohingya refugees, who have found safe heaven in Jammu and Kashmir, pose a threat to the security of people in the region and should be “thrown out” of the state, said by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad. Though the Government said that Rohingyas are a security threat and not a religious problem, the top court has repeatedly postponed their exile. A solution to the problem is authoritative.

In an interview with Russia Today on the crisis in Europe, French politician Marine Le Pen said, “Immigration is an organised replacement of our population. This threatens our very survival.” Syria’s Grand Mufti, Sheikh Ahmad Badreddin Hassoun, supports New Delhi’s view that Rohingyas are a security threat and not a religious problem. Yet, the Supreme Court has repeatedly deferred the deportation of thousands of illegal Rohingyas and is even hearing their petition against expulsion.

In Jammu, the demographic and security threat posed by illegal Rohingyas and Bangladeshis has reached a boiling point. Local ‘permanent residents’ (hereditary State citizens) allege a well-funded and politically-backed conspiracy to settle them across the Province and trigger Hindu migration, as already reported from some villages. In November 2017, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees visited at least five Rohingya habitations in Jammu and urged them to leave, promising funds to settle elsewhere. They refused, saying, “We are used to Jammu, we know everyone over here, why would we leave?” That, in a nutshell, sums up their comfort levels in Hindu-majority Jammu, as opposed to living with their co-religionists in Kashmir.

Perhaps this is why Jammu led the campaign to deport Rohingyas from India. As is well-known, Hindus who fled West Pakistan in 1947-48 and landed in Jammu & Kashmir were treated shabbily by Sheikh Abdullah and are languishing without official recognition (identity certificates) needed for Government jobs, education in State institutions and other benefits. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) promised to address this seven-decade-old injustice during the 2014 election, but met with fierce resistance from Kashmiri separatists, the National Conference and the Congress; and also the People’s Democratic Party.

At the Union Home Minister’s nudging, the State Government set up a Group of Ministers in May 2017, to examine illegal Rohingya and Bangladeshi settlements in Jammu and Samba districts. But it was non-serious. The attack on the Army camp at Sunjwan in February this year increased the clamour to evict the Rohingyas, who have even settled near the camp. A senior police official said there are “consultation camps” on the border, which direct the groups to settle at a particular place or city. Jammu is preferred due to proximity with Pakistan and to “strengthen” its Muslim minority.

The infiltrators are given mobile phone, I-cards, Aadhaar cards, even ‘permanent resident’ cards, illegal power and water connections, and allowed to grab State lands and build houses on them. Funds for them are raised through hawala channels and routed through local NGOs, such as Jamaat Ahle Haider, Yateem Trust and Kashmiri Welfare Trust. The National Conference regime had forced schools in some localities to admit Bangladeshi and Rohingya children, who comprise 80 percent of the student body.

Rohingyas are active in Tablighi activities through local mosques in Jammu (as in Chennai and Hyderabad). Security agencies suspect them of having links with the Islamic State, Lashkar-e-Tayyeba, Al Qaeda and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. In fact, Rakhine (Arakan) is becoming an important node of the global jihadist movement and is being funded by organisations in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Rohingyas are linked to the Bangladesh Islami Chhatrashibir of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami. They are involved in unsavoury activities such as trafficking girls from Myanmar and selling drugs.

Given the inexcusable sympathy for the infiltrators in some well-heeled sections of society, it is worth recollecting how they burst into the international limelight. Strategic analyst Brahma Chellaney observes that Rohingyas were among the first groups in Asia to be radicalised by the British Raj and to demand partition; they tried to expel Burma’s Buddhist population north of Arakan (170-odd miles) to join East Pakistan.

The current crisis began on August 25, 2017, when the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army attacked police posts in Maungdaw, Myanmar; over 100 people died. The jihadis also attacked the Hindu minority in Rakhine; over 500 were slaughtered; the Army later found mass graves with Hindu bodies.

Many Hindu families fled to Bangladesh to escape, but were again persecuted by the 4.5 lakh Rohingya Muslims fleeing the Myanmar Army. In the refugee camps, Hindu women were forced to break their bangles, read namaz, wear burqas, and convert. They sought shelter near two temples at Ukhia in Cox’s Bazar. The Hindus said they were attacked by Rohingyas and feared to return to Myanmar as several members of their families had been slaughtered and their homes burnt down. In October 2017, Bangladesh arrested 22 Rohingya Muslims posing as refugees, but who were linked to the massacre of Hindus in Myanmar. They were reportedly trained by Pakistan’s ISI.

The Jerusalem Post was the only international media to assert that while it was true that the Myanmar Army had begun ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas after the ARSA assault on police posts, the ethnic cleansing of Hindus in Arakan (‘Rohingya Hindus’) could not be ignored. Even while fighting the Army, jihadi groups were entering Hindu areas and “stabbing, shooting and raping the residents”. One survivor reported that the terrorists would dig three holes — one to dump the bodies of women, one for children and one for men; all overflowed. The paper noted that while conditions in Bangladesh refugee camps were tough, Hindu refugees were worst hit. Many wanted refuge in India.

By the end of September 2017, when matters subsided, the Myanmar Government urged Hindu refugees who fled to Bangladesh to return, and assured that they would be taken care of in Sittwe, capital of Rakhine State. So far, there has been no response to this plea and it seems unlikely that Hindus would return to Rakhine. The enmity between Myanmar’s majority Buddhists and Rohingyas, most of whom are denied citizenship on grounds of being British imports from the region now known as Bangladesh, has flared up intermittently since 1948 when Burma (Myanmar) became independent. But what happened to the miniscule Hindu community was genocide.

Rohingyas are known to have settled in Jammu, Hyderabad, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi-NCR and Rajasthan. However, in April, Gorkha Janmukti Morcha leader Bimal Gurung alleged that Rohingyas were being settled in Darjeeling and Kalimpong districts of the Gorkhaland region of West Bengal, as part of a sinister conspiracy to alter the demography and marginalise the native Gorkhas, superseding national interests for vote-bank politics. Gorkhaland, which borders Nepal, Bhutan, Tibet and Bangladesh, is politically sensitive and any “replacement” of the population, as warned by Marine Le Pen, could have a deleterious impact on the nation. A solution to the Rohingya threat is an urgent imperative.

(The writer is Senior Fellow, Nehru Memorial Museum and Library; the views expressed are personal)

Writer: Sandhya Jain

Courtesy: The Pioneer

Union minister of consumer affairs, food and public distribution and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) chief Ram Vilas Paswan has supported the demand raised by chief minister Nitish Kumar and the JDU for granting special status category to Bihar but within the guidelines set up by the National Development Council (NDC).

“Bihar is more backward while Andhra is comparatively developed State. If the States are considered for special status Bihar will get this privilege first,” said Paswan talking to media here on Sunday and said his party was always in in support of special status to Bihar and Nitish has all right to make such a demand. However, he admitted there were some constraints in granting this status because of the laid norms but Paswan stopped short of demanding change in the norms. Paswan was all praise for Bihar CM for including Paswan caste in the Mahadalit category and other welfare measure for the scheduled caste students like Rs 50,000 grant to those students qualifying in BPSC and Rs 1 lakh for those qualifying in UPSC. “All dalit castes are oppressed class and there should not be any discriminations as far as granting them some facilities,” said Paswan who had earlier been critical of Nitish for keeping Paswans out of the purview of Mahadalit category for political reasons. He also pointed out that the Supreme Court had ordered that the dalits should be called scheduled castes which is also written in the constitution and the same term was used by Dr B R Ambedkar.

Expressing confidence that BJP led NDA will form the Government in Karnataka, Paswan took pot shots at AICC president Rahul Gandhi for his statement that he was ready to be Prime Minister in 2019.

Writer: PNS

Courtesy: The Pioneer

Karnataka Assembly election will held on May 12 and the results will be out on May 15. It will be interesting to watch out who will win the election and who is able to rule over Deve Gowda’s group.

In January this year, I had the privilege of meeting octogenarian former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda at his house in Padmanabhanagar in Bengaluru. It was late in the night and he had been attending a series of meetings with party workers from across the State. He had a hectic day earlier that day attending four meetings across Karnataka. I did not have a formal appointment and was trying my luck. Finally, when I was called at 11:30 pm, after a three-hour wait, I thought I would barely be able to get his attention. Hesitant, I entered his room where I found him sitting composed with no signs of exhaustion whatsoever.

Sensing the precious opportunity I had of his audience, I blurted out all I could about how we were assisting political parties in their media and communication outreach, including professional management of social media. When I informed him about my academic and professional pedigree — a PhD from JNU and stint with three national dailies including The Pioneer — he took special interest and appreciated the work we were doing and also asked me to come the next day. What was remarkable was that when I was leaving, he personally handed over a banana to me. That was, I thought, an exceptional gesture. As I peeled it off on my way back, I admired his ability to lend that human touch to an insignificant meeting for him with a Dilli wala.

A fracture in my leg few days later did not allow me to pursue it further but as time progressed and I read about Karnataka election, I realised how significant Gowda would become in less than a week from now. Even though the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems set to snatch the State from the Congress, reducing it to what Prime Minister Narendra Modi called PPP or Punjab, Puducherry and Parivar, it is likely that the party would indulge Gowda post the election.

It was evident earlier last week as Modi generously spoke of the former Prime Minister. Modi had said that the son of the soil and former Prime Minister was among the tallest leaders of the country. “We have had political differences with Deve Gowdaji but there is no denying that he is among India’s most respected leaders,” said Prime Minister Modi, while in the same breath, attacking Congress president Rahul Gandhi for using foul language for Gowda. “The language Congress leaders have used for Deve Gowdaji is shocking. This shows their arrogance,” he said.

Gowda reciprocated the compliments and said that it was because of Modi that he continued in the Lok Sabha. “Before the 2014 election, I had said I would resign my Lok Sabha membership if BJP gets a majority on its own. I decided to resign, but Modi persuaded me against doing so. He said the country needs the experience and services of senior leaders,” National president of Janata Dal (Secular) (JD (S)), Gowda was quoted as saying by a newspaper.

The bonhomie of JD (S) and BJP, experts say, is also important given the fluid post-poll scenario as is being predicted by pre-poll surveys. A careful analysis of the BJP’s strategy would reveal that it has nurtured a good relationship with its alliance partners. Even though there is no such understanding with the JD (S), in a dynamically changing political scenario and with an eye on the 2019 general elections, it would be in the interest of the BJP to nurture good relationship with Gowda. For Gowda, too, it makes better sense to align with the BJP, given that the issues he wants to be addressed can best be handled by the party in power at the Centre.

For instance, Gowda has been raising the issue of Mahadayi and farmers suicides and has asked Modi to look into these two critical problems facing Karnataka. In fact, as per National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), 2,729 farmers committed suicide in Karnataka between 2014 and 2016 and the Prime Minister has attacked the Congress Government over the same. Modi also announced that the BJP would give a waiver to crop and other agricultural loans from State-owned banks and other cooperative societies.

It would help Gowda if he aligns with the BJP and sees that this is implemented expeditiously. A BJP Government in Karnataka will be better placed to arrive at a resolution of the Mahadayi dispute with Goa, another issue that Gowda has been articulating vigorously. For the BJP, Gowda can take some steam out of the facade of the Third Front and growing murmurs of discrimination from Central Government that two southern Chief Ministers — N Chandrababu Naidu and K Chandrasekhar Rao — have been spearheading.

May 15 will be interesting to watch out for – not only for who wins, but who is able to hold the flock of Gowda into their side. For the 85-year-old, whatever may be the outcome, he shall continue to hold significance. And his blessings, post May 15, will matter a great deal.

(The writer is a strategic communications professional)

Writer: Navneet Anand

Courtesy: The Pioneer

Uttar Pradesh CM, Yogi Adityanath overruling the decision that had been passed by the previous Samajwadi Party Government of Akhilesh Yadav that gave housing to previous Uttar Pradesh Chief Ministers for life.

Politicians might fight each other in elections, but when it comes to their perks, they are a feisty and united lot, which is why the Uttar Pradesh Government’s lawyers — a Government mind you that is led by Yogi Adityanath and the Bharatiya Janata Party — argued for an amendment that had been passed by the previous Samajwadi Party Government of Akhilesh Yadav that gave housing to previous Uttar Pradesh Chief Ministers for life. The Supreme Court, in its wisdom, struck down the amendment saying that once a Chief Minister demits office, he/she returns to being a “common man” and the public office held by them becomes “a matter of history”. Indeed, it is not just Uttar Pradesh, but a practice in several States — from north to south and east to west — where the State takes over the responsibility of housing their former premiers.

The Supreme Court is right. Why should former Chief Ministers, or any former leader be housed by the State? An exception has been made for those whose lives are under threat, Special Protection Group (SPG) protectees, such as former Prime Ministers and in the case of Sonia Gandhi, their families which the Supreme Court themselves had ruled on in 1997 in a three-judge bench. However, it has become a norm for former leaders to treat the Government apparatus as their own and abuse the system. The adopted son of Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, Vikramaditya Singh, has been living on in the bungalow allotted to the former Vice President in Jaipur despite Shekhawat’s death in 2010 and his widow Suraj Kanwar passing away in 2015. Another example was the violence threatened by Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Ajit Singh when he was asked to vacate his official bungalow on Tughlak Road because he considered it his “right”, of course, he beat a hasty retreat out of the house once it was certain that it was a battle he could not win. Even though there are notable exceptions such as Tripura’s former Chief Minister, Manik Sarkar who made his economic deprivation an election issue, the public at large considers most politicians wealthy enough to afford their post-office housing. After all, if they wear Hublot watches and fancy outfits, they are certain to be able to afford their own housing. In case they cannot, their political organisations owe it to them to find them housing.

Politicians and bureaucrats should not be entitled to post-service housing, many of them save a lot of money and are paid well enough to afford their own private housing. The establishment of group housing societies with subsidised land makes it even easier for them to build houses. After a lifetime of Government service, this is a fair deal and most bureaucrats retire to such societies for their golden years. However, politicians, particularly senior ones, somehow do not believe that they should ride into the sunset and even if they do, they want the state to subsidise that ride. Thankfully, that free ride has been stopped by the Supreme Court. However, this judgement only looked at the politicians from one state, the Supreme Court ought to explore how rules are being bent by politicians of all hues in other States in the Union as well as at the Centre. Official housing should be just that, used for official purposes and while you are in office. Once you cease to be in office, the housing should also cease.

Writer: Pioneer

Courtesy: The Pioneer

It’s unexpected that parliamentarians and seasoned lawyers have questioned the right of Rajya Sabha Chairman to keep his statement at the admission stage to remove the CJI Dipak Misra

The decision of Venkaiah Naidu, the Vice President and Chairman of the Rajya Sabha, to reject the notice for impeachment of Chief Justice Dipak Misra, has been questioned by the Congress and some others who were signatories to the petition. A news agency report claimed that the Congress had “lashed out” at the Chairman for passing such an “illegal order”. Sitaram Yechury, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) was quoted as saying that the Chairman “does not have the discretion to independently decide about the validity of the motion”. Kapil Sibal of the Congress claimed that “never before in India’s history” had a motion moved by MPs been dismissed at the preliminary stage”.

While the aggrieved MPs are entitled to question the Chairman’s decision, some of the claims made by them — that the law does not permit rejection of the notice at the preliminary stage and that this has never happened before — are wholly incorrect.

The argument that the law does not permit the Chairman, Rajya Sabha, to apply his mind and take a call on whether or not to admit the motion of impeachment, is absolutely false. Section 3 of the Judges (Inquiry) Act, 1968, clearly states that “the Speaker or, as the case may be, the Chairman may, after consulting such persons, if any, as he thinks fit and after considering such materials, if any, as may be available to him, either admit the motion or refuse the admit the same”. Therefore, there can be no ambiguity whatsoever in regard to the power of the Chairman to reject the motion at the preliminary stage.

Second, as regards precedents, the very first petition filed in the Lok Sabha after the Judges (Inquiry) Act came into being was rejected by Speaker GS Dhillon in 1970, when the Congress was in power at the Centre. The Speaker found the petition against Justice JC Shah of the Supreme Court, signed by 199 MPs to be ‘frivolous” and also ensured that nothing was brought on record in regard to the allegations against the judge.

Further, the arguments advanced by the Congress at this juncture are indeed strange because it was this very party which did not support the impeachment motion against Justice Ramaswami of the Supreme Court. As against the vague, “may be, may not be” averments against the present Chief Justice, the motion against Justice V Ramaswami of the Supreme Court in 1993, was loaded with grave charges of an unprecedented nature. The Inquiry Committee comprising three judges, which probed the charges, held him guilty of “willful and gross misuse of office…… moral turpitude and bringing dishonor to the judiciary”. The Congress did not support the impeachment motion against such a judge and his lawyer and chief defender at that time was Kapil Sibal.

Finally, when one examines the history of the Judges (Inquiry) Bill, which was first mooted in 1964, one realises that some of the best legal minds in the country at that time were strongly in favour of the Speaker or Chairman taking a call on admissibility of a notice of impeachment.

The Government referred the Bill to a joint committee of Parliament. Many eminent jurists and parliamentary experts, including MN Kaul, former Secretary-General of the Lok Sabha and co-author of the most authoritative text on the practice and procedure in Parliament, CK Daphtary, the then Attorney General of India, MC Setalvad, LM Singhvi, MC Chatterjee, GS Pathak, PN Sapru and KK Shah appeared before this committee in 1966. Following the committee’s report, the Government amended the proposed legislation and it was finally passed in 1968. The deliberations of this committee, the opinion tendered by experts before it and the final recommendations are illuminating and relevant to the issue at hand.

MN Kaul, categorically told the committee that whenever a complaint is lodged against a judge, “it is necessary for the Speaker/Chairman to consider whether any prima facie case is made out”.  He told the committee that Meghnad Saha, an eminent scientist, lodged a complaint against a judge leading to the first case of this kind after the Constitution came into being. The notice was sent to Speaker Mavalankar who felt that “it was necessary to first find out if there was a prima facie case to admit the notice”. Kaul recalled Mavalankar’s conversation with the complainant.

What the Speaker told Saha that day over six decades ago has great relevance even today and has a bearing on the present case vis-à-vis the Rajya Sabha Chairman’s approach to the notice against Chief Justice Misra.

According to Kaul, this is what Speaker Mavalankar told the complainant: “Look here, you have given notice; you are an eminent member and I know that you may have some prima facie evidence, but it is my duty as a Speaker, to satisfy myself…initially it is my power and responsibility to admit it or not to admit it. I think I should view it with an extremely critical eye; that is to say if I have no recourse left, then in those circumstances alone I will place this on the order paper”. Kaul told the committee that that it was incumbent on the Speaker “to check and verify the allegations initially”. He said the Home Minister, the Chief Justice and Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru supported what the Speaker did.

Kaul was absolutely certain that the Speaker could admit the motion only if he found a prima facie case. Also, that the Speaker could dismiss the motion “if it was frivolous”. He categorically stated that “No Member of Parliament should think that when he moves a motion, the charges are proved. He has only started the machinery to go into action. At that stage if the member does not satisfy the Speaker about a prima facie case, the Speaker may say that he is not satisfied or that there is no basis”. KK Shah told the committee that “there should be no character assassination before proof”.  MC Setalvad, another eminent jurist, told the committee that discussion about the conduct of the judge must be avoided at the initial stage.

After hearing all these experts, the joint committee of Parliament decided that when a notice is given, the Speaker or Chairman may consult such persons as he deems fit and also gather material and eventually “either admit or reject the motion”. This opinion of the joint committee stands incorporated in Section 3 of the Judges (Inquiry) Act, which is in vogue today.

It is, therefore, surprising to hear seasoned lawyers and parliamentarians question the right of the Chairman to apply his mind at the admission stage.

Writer: A Surya prakash

Courtesy: The Pioneer

Although the results of the Wuhan Summit are yet to be announced, our PM, Narendra Modi, definitely set the agenda.

Even his worst critics will give Prime Minister Narendra Modi at least two cheers for his recent diplomatic achievement in lifting the India-China relationship above the common bitterness prevalent till the other day to a higher, summit-level engagement that lays out a calibrated action plan to serve the set objective of normalising relations between the two Asian giants. This is statesmanship of the highest order. That the summit was deliberately kept ‘informal’ was a part of statesmanship. The chances of success of this unprecedented initiative will depend on whether the two leaders have measured each other’s intention — explicit or otherwise — correctly.

Chinese President Xi Jinping understood that his guest is not a namby-pamby idealist as was Jawaharlal Nehru when the then Chinese Premier, Zhou Enlai, descended on New Delhi suddenly in the early 1960s. At that moment, there was intense tension in the relationship between the two Asian neighbours. And the Indian leader was sadly under the miasma of China, convinced that it will not wage a war to grab more of Indian territory. President Xi, on the other hand, got a taste of the present Indian Prime Minister over Doklam. That Modi is not vulnerable to pressure when dealing with an adversary was what Doklam demonstrated. If necessary, he would have been ready for a tit-for-tat and he knew exactly how far his rival would go. Thus, Doklam was a tipping point in India-China relations, enabling both parties to measure each other correctly. India now has strong backing from US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Earlier, China’s hegemonist plans in the South Sea as also elsewhere had driven South-East Asian nations to build economic and political relationship with the India-US-Japan-Australia linkage to counter Chinese pressure.

After the Indian refusal to participate in Chinese sponsored One Belt One Road conference as a protest against China’s policies and New Delhi’s strategic/defence deals with US-Japan, it must have been clear to President Xi that he was dealing with a rival who will not yield to pressure tactics but is perfectly amenable to rational discussion. Indian critics of Modi, who bemoaned the absence of reference to Doklam in the Wuhan talks, should have remembered that the tipping point was not under discussion. The future course of action was. What Modi and Xi discussed will not be known at present. In fact, many Asian nations will be watching with concern and interest whether Beijing will pursue a hegemonic or a peaceful path in South and South-East Asia. India will be watching for moderation in China’s policies in Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and other neighbouring countries where India has deep interests. The decision of the two Governments to aid Afghanistan to withstand terrorist attacks and aid economic development is one such welcome outcome of the Wuhan summit.

But it must be asked whether Beijing will be giving up on its policy of edging out India from Nepal; Modi has indicated that India is going to defend its interests in Nepal with all its might — his telling Nepal’s new Government that if it prefers China to India in financing its hydro-electric project, India will not buy the power generated by it. Many analysts would have noted a sudden turn round in President Xi’s handling of North Korea, which has been making threats to destroy US and Japan with nuclear-tipped missiles and which provoked Trump to say that he has firepower enough to wipe out North Korea even before Kim Jong-un’s first missile reaches its destination. Only China could tame Kim and Xi did so after the North Korean dictator was asked to rush to Beijing in a special train. Events since then have lowered significantly the 30-year tension between the Koreas, no doubt a welcome development in a world full of strife and faith-based wars.

A declaration came on the part of Kim that he will discontinue nuclear tests to enable, perhaps, Trump to come to the peace zone between the two Koreas to meet with the North’s ‘Great Leader’ is a message from President Xi now that the ruling establishment in Beijing has confirmed him as President of China for life. The Chinese President would now project his new image of a peacemaker with the whole of his country behind him for the immediate future. He could not do so with India-China tension building up to a point of no-return and is therefore likely to want to do his best to de-escalate it. We can watch for the progress towards that in the coming months. It is Indian territory that the Chinese are occupying, his guest from India might have tried to put across to him. Which means it is in China’s interest to demonstrate progress in negotiations on the border. We can wait and watch whether that will take place.

Modi is just about a year from a General Election in India where most analysts give him another five-year term. So, the time to strike a deal and strengthen stability across the Asian continent is now for both President Xi and Prime Minister Modi. The problem remains with an unstable Pakistan where fundamentalist forces, its Army as also the civil administration are in a constant battle for power. Unfortunately, this criticality also coincides with the rise of international terrorism from Pakistani soil. Beijing has to assure international opinion that it is against terror yet it has to support Pakistan’s terror chiefs like Hafiz Saeed because the civilian government in Islamabad cannot afford to try him despite the US Administration demanding it and withholding its annual two billion dollar aid to the Pakistan military.

China has chosen a Janus-faced policy on Hafiz. On the one hand, it is supporting his ‘freedom’ while on the other assuring everybody that it is against terror. Again, we will have to watch for any sign of a change in policy after the exchange of views between the Chinese and Indian leaders in Wuhan. Modi has to convince his people in an election year that the tango with Xi has been worth the while for peace and stability and to work towards making the 21st century an Asian century. Equally important for him is to take tangible steps to bridge the widening trade gap in China’s favour, thanks to the cheap inflow Chinese goods which have flooded the Indian market and dealt a huge blow to small Indian enterprises.

But it looks like Modi’s China visit has started bearing some fruit. China has exempted import tariffs for 28 drugs, including all cancer drugs, from 1 May. According to the National Cancer Institute, the market for antineoplastic drugs used to fight tumours in China exceeds 120 billion Yuan (about 19.1 billion US Dollars).

(The writer is a political commentator and a former BJP Rajya Sabha MP)

Writer: Balbir Punj

Courtesy: The Pioneer

The upcoming year, 2019, will be full of an existential challenge for congress. Cambridge Analytica suggested that the party will reorganize and rebrand themselves. It is strategically planned for 2019 polls of Karnataka, MP, Chhattisgarh elections, to ‘disrupt’ BJP monopoly. As the Bharatiya Janata Party Pushed to the back foot, Congress will try their best to set the narrative.

In an assessment submitted soon after the Bharatiya Janata Party’s resounding victory in the Uttar Pradesh election of 2017, the now controversial Cambridge Analytica observed that the Congress needs emphatic wins in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh to send out a clear message of change to the rest of India, giving it “winning momentum” in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll. Unsurprisingly, these are precisely the States where the Congress is waging a no-holds-barred war with the BJP.

Titled, ‘Indian National Congress: Data-Driven Campaign — The Path to the 2019 Lok Sabha’, the study advises the Congress to make “radical changes to its campaign methodology and infrastructure if it is to reverse the formidable political current running against it. A ‘business-as-usual’ approach — or even a substantial increase in campaign spend using the same traditional methods — simply will not cut it”.

Regaining the initiative calls for an in-depth understanding of the Indian people, what they really think and feel, what motivates and drives their behaviour, and their propensity for change; an invigorated leadership, brand identity and vision which captures the imagination of a dynamic but polarised and disillusioned nation, and offers a new narrative of hope and change; and effective, nimble and highly targeted communications capability which cuts through the noise with coherent, credible and consistent messaging which reaches audiences and has a measurable effect on their attitudes and behaviour.

Achieving this will require a robust data-driven campaign. Cambridge Analytica claims that its ability to model, segment and micro-target the population with personalised messaging catapulted Donald Trump to the White House, a fact acknowledged by Hillary Clinton. It assures that it can do the same for the Congress in the coming 18 months, at both national and State level, as it is accomplished in “behaviour change” campaigns.

The study shows a good grasp of the Indian political firmament. Of the eight State elections in 2018, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are identified as most significant, especially in the national campaign. The Congress’ rout in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections has increased the stakes in Karnataka, which it won with a large majority in 2013, and fared well in by-elections in 2017.

The Karnataka Assembly election will focus around the Cauvery water-sharing dispute, drought relief, farm loan-waivers, imposition of Hindi (strange) and the fate of minorities and “oppressed” communities (read Scheduled Castes). It notes that while some issues are state-specific, others like poverty and religious or caste conflict apply across the country. It’s amazing how charges of religion and caste-based prejudice have reverberated across the nation in recent months.

Analytica adds that the BJP, aware of Karnataka’s importance, had begun strategic research in all 224 constituencies in 2017, to identify issues, candidates and winning prospects. In Uttar Pradesh, the party waged a ‘smartphone battle’ using big data and social media, and will use it on a larger scale in the technological capital of India, by launching Whatsapp groups to create echo chambers in all regions of the State. The Congress must regain the initiative by ensuring that its campaign is fully data-driven and its communication is digitally-focused.

Madhya Pradesh, with 90 per cent Hindu and 20 per cent tribal population, has a large number of jobless, well-educated youth, and agricultural workers. The BJP has held the State since 2003, but currently faces challenges, mainly due to farmer unrest. The farmers’ movement (2017) showed the power of social media and mobile technology in mobilising movements and ideas in the countryside. Analytica believes that the Congress has a real chance in Madhya Pradesh and should conduct a deep study to understand the grievances and motivations of the electorate and then micro-target people in rural areas.

Chhattisgarh is resource-rich and fast developing State, but has the lowest living standards and infrastructure development. Over 80 per cent is rural and farming population are unhappy. Though the BJP has been in power since 2003, the Congress has a better chance here, having lost recent elections very narrowly. Also, the decline in Maoist activity will stimulate higher voting in previously low turnout areas. Cambridge Analytica suggests that the Congress must collect data to understand the issues that will give it the edge in a 93 per cent Hindu State, and alter national attitudes in 2019.

The 2014 general election was a disaster for the Congress; it won just 44 seats and lost even the Opposition status. It suffered loss of reputation due to allegations of corruption, disunity, sycophancy and nepotism, and the growing wealth gap and economic disparity. For 2019, Cambridge Analytica said that by November 2017, it would undertake a comprehensive review of the Congress’s existing communications capability to project factors that will determine success in the pan-Indian context. It would complete a Data Gap Analysis, “designed to extract maximum value from your data assets, leverage third-party data, and use these resources to enable data-driven marketing and research”.

Between end-2017 till 2019, a complex National Data Infrastructure Project will help mount a powerful national campaign around “actionable” groups (that share similar characteristics and can be targeted accordingly) within the population so that the Congress can develop a strategic communications plan tailored to the issues and concerns of each target audience.

The strategy will highlight the topics, policies and even the media channels that are best suited to resonate with different audience groups and segments of society, thus enabling the Congress to take the right message to the right people, in 2018 and beyond, and make them go and vote (Get Out The Vote). Cambridge Analytica says it can give a special edge, as it did for President Trump, by predicting how voters think and behave, so they can be targeted: “Crucially, we will also identify which voters are likely to support the INC”.

For the Congress, 2019 represents an existential challenge. Cambridge Analytica says it must rebrand and reorganise or struggle to survive as a major political institution. For a preliminary report, this is a competent analysis. However, after the data misuse scandal burst in London and Washington, and the Government of India demanded information on the use of citizen’s data, it is unclear if the Congress or other political parties will use, or admit using, the firm in the State and national elections.

Certainly, the advice to use high voltage campaigns to grab eyeballs across the country — stifling dissent, anti-Scheduled Caste bias, film Padmavat, Kathua murder case, judges appointments, impeachment of the Chief Justice of India, et al — have pushed the BJP on the back foot. It may have recovered in each case, but it is yet to seize control of the narrative.

(The writer is Senior Fellow, Nehru Memorial Museum and Library; the views expressed are personal)

Writer: Sandhya Jain

Courtesy: The Pioneer

The government has started supplying electricity to every village in the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced, a big achievement that now shifts country’s attention towards improving the quality of electricity supply to connect every household to the grid.

Leisang in the hills of Manipur became the 597,464th and the last census village in India to get connected to the electricity grid of the country. This is a remarkable achievement and although work had been going on over the last two decades at a constant pace, it must be said that the Narendra Modi Government had the toughest challenge to connect some of India’s remotest and furthest habitations. This achievement should not be mocked. While some are making a hullabaloo over a supposed image by the US Space agency NASA, the fact is that anybody, who travelled on a night flight over India back in the early-2000’s, could easily tell the difference that the past two decades have made. Far from flying over the heart of darkness, if one caught a flight between Chennai and Delhi, today you can look down from a window seat and see several patches of light where earlier there were none. It has been pointed out, repeatedly one must add, by those pathologically opposed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi that this achievement does not mean that every household has electricity. Which is something the Government realises. Last October, it emerged that almost 36.8 million rural homes did not have access to any form of electricity in India. Since then, according to Government data, only 13 per cent of those homes have been electrified in the last few months. But 30 million homes remain to be electrified and that is not all. Across the country, several million homes, even in urban areas, do not have access to guaranteed 24×7 power. So much so that whole industries have popped up in India, trying to cover the infrastructure gap — inverters and generators.

This challenge is being tackled by the Government and Narendra Modi promised last October that he intends to have electricity in 40 million homes unconnected to the grid by March 2019 under the Saubhagya scheme, which is as ambitious as the very successful ‘Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana’ and ‘UJALA’ schemes that provided cooking gas and LED lights across the country. However, in meeting the challenge while sticking to our emissions commitments made at global forums will require juggling the needs to lifting millions of Indians out of extreme poverty along with the needs of the planet. While India has taken massive steps towards renewable energy, much of the additional energy demanded in bringing millions of new households into the grid will be through thermal energy generated by coal which will belch billions of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This will lead India down a tightrope because given vast swathes of low-lying areas as well as suffering extreme weather phenomena, India will be heavily affected by global warming. We do need to do our utmost to ensure that every single Indian has access to electricity as the 21st century heads into its third decade. Doing that while ensuring that the world will survive as an habitable planet into the twenty-second century will be a major challenge.

Writer: Pioneer

Courtesy: The Pioneer

Since the formation of Uttarakhand, declaring Gairsain as the capital as always been in question. Swagata Sinha Roy and DK Budakoti speculate that this demand is linked with the public and political ethos of the state.

The ongoing agitation in the State of Uttarakhand for a permanent capital in the small hill town of Gairsain in the interiors of Chamoli district, is once again making news. The issue of permanent capital at Gairsain was proposed by regional political outfits and social activists much before the formation of the State in November 9, 2000.

However, Dehradun was made the temporary capital as a permanent one was not mentioned when the Bill for the State formation was passed in the Parliament.

The history of the state formation has its roots in the identity of local people and the issue of development. Now, despite almost 18 years of State formation, the issue of development, employment and migration have not been addressed; in fact, they have only been aggravated over the years.

The issue of migration has been a long on-going matter with the academia and in the development NGOs sector. Today, the Government recognises the seriousness of the issue and Government website mentions that, “Migration from rural areas in Uttarakhand is a serious problem with a comparison between 2001 and 2011 Census data showing a very slow decadal growth of population in most of the mountain districts of the State.

An absolute decline in the population of Almora and Pauri Garhwal districts between 2001 and 2011 points towards a massive out flux of people from many hill regions of the State. The pace of out-migration is such that many of the villages are left with a population in double digits.

Data also points towards a high rate of decadal increase in population in districts like Dehradun, Udham Singh Nagar, Nainital and Haridwar while this is negative in Pauri and Almora districts and abnormally low decadal increase in Tehri, Bageshwar, Chamoli, Rudraprayag and Pithoragarh districts.”

This shows that the Government of Uttarakhand is apprised of the situation and has formed the Uttarakhand Rural Development and Migration Commission. The official website also mentions the mandate of the Commission that, “the Uttarakhand Government has constituted the Rural Development and Migration Commission in August 2017, to examine all aspects of the problem, evolve a vision for the focused development of the rural areas of the State; advice the Government on multi-sectoral development at the grassroots levels which would aggregate at the district and state levels and also submit recommendations to the Government on various other related matters.”

Today, local political and social activists and general populace of the hills feel that the formation of the State has not been fruitful as expected and one of the reasons is

having Dehradun as a temporary capital of the State. Although when the BJP and Congress were in Opposition, they paid lip service to make Gairsain the permanent capital of the State.

Gairsain as a permanent capital  is not an emotional issue but a rational one, as the premise is based on the paradigm that a capital in the interiors will usher in development in the hills.

A capital in the interior hill area will make the political leadership and bureaucracy sensitive to the hardship faced by the people, thereby improve basic amenities, viz. water, electricity, health and education.

With the shifting of political centre and the official machinery, the related infrastructure will be planned in the area leading to development through, what is called in development and economic theory, as the ‘trickling down effect’.

Thus, the whole agitation and campaign is based on the premise that a capital in the interiors will usher in development of the ‘State Capital Region’  (SCR) and subsequently the development of the State at large, particularly the hill regions.

(The writers are freelance commentators)

Writer: Swagata Sinha Roy and DK Budakoti

Courtesy: The Pioneer

Apart from so many political union and varied society in India that were corrupting the head of the nation, Prime Minister Modi has come up clean to assault all political storms and ensure the success of his vision.

I don’t have any love for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But as an Indian who is committed to safeguarding and promoting the values of the Indian Constitution, I am keen to support the positive initiatives of the Prime Minister.

In a society, which is highly divisive, politically hot and diverse in different aspects, it is nothing but natural to villainise the head of the nation. Modi is known to have weathered these political storms and has come out clean to ensure the successful staging of his visionary schemes and policies.

Somewhere he might have slipped inadvertently but that is common to any human being. however, in the overall perspective, it is clear that Modi is standing tall in promoting the welfare of India and its citizens. According to the Prime Minister’s official website, he had travelled to nearly 70 countries and  has spend around Rs 250 crore in the last four and half years.

What did he bring in from these foreign visits? He made sure that India becomes a nation to be watched seriously by the entire world.

He showcased the strengths of India, pursued the international countries to lend support to counter the terrorists operating in foreign soils against India, brought in a huge capital, technology and innovative ideas to transform the country.

Indeed India is transforming at a rapid speed and the world is watching keenly. Modi’s foreign visits have reformed and transformed the Indian economy and society in a massive way. It needs guts of steel to counter the mammoth Chinese strength in the Asian continent and wider will to play on the front foot with the world as the stage. In both ways, the Modi Government has achieved quite remarkably.

Pakistan was sending terrorists across the border and playing cricket and simultaneously distributing sweets on Holi and Diwali. Modi made sure that multi-tricked Pakistan is exposed. He smartly succeeded in bringing out the evil designs of Pakistan. The United States has held the funds for terrorists operating against India. It has also blocked the funds for Pakistan.

A famous pro Indian Republican Larry Pressler  in his book Neighbours in Arms: An American Senator’s Quest for Disarmament in a Nuclear Subcontinent  gives a clear picture of the US’s actions against these terrorist networks operating from Pakistan. He thanks US President Donald Trump for openly branding Pakistan as a terrorist state and creating existential trouble for terrorist groups like the Hizbul Mujahideen, Haqqani Network, the Taliban, Lashkar-e-Tayyaba etc.

The Modi Government has successfully catalysed people like Larry Pressler and networks like pro-India lobbies to put a fullstop to the troubles coming across the borders.

For many years, India has been talking about self-sufficiency in defence productions. But Modi Government is making sure that the talk is turned into action. Dreams floated in the air for ages are now turning into reality.

Defence manufacturing is taking the right shape and India may achieve export status in the next 10 years. This was possible through right persuasion and collaboration of foreign companies to start manufacturing defence hubs in India.

The recent Defence Expo 2018 held at Thiruvidanthai near Chennai saw a record number of foreign companies showing interests in starting defence manufacturing in India. By 2025, India is expected to produce military goods and services worth Rs 1.7 lakh crore.

World renowed defence equipment manufacturing companies like Lockheed Martin, Boeing of the United States, Saab (Sweden), Airbus, Dassault Aviation (France), Rosoboronexport, United Shipbuilding Corporation (Russia), BAE Systems (United Kingdom), Sibat (Israel), Wartsila (Finland) and Rohde and Schwarz (Germany) are among the 154 foreign participating companies.

With Japan, India has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to send three lakh youths to get on-job training in the next three years. This is a major breakthrough to providing employment opportunities for job starved Indian population. The excess capital and human resources of Japan and India will lead to the prosperity of both nations.

In all ways, Narendra Modi’s charisma is working to the advantage of India. He has brought in huge foreign capital. It has doubled to over $60 billion in the last four years.

The Prime Minister has increased the clout of India widely around the world. From the President of United States to the Queen of England to the Prime Minister of tiny island Fiji, every head of the State around the world salutes India under the leadership of  Narendra Modi.

Now, the entire nation must rally behind the Government to ensure prosperity, peace and progress for all, leaving the petty politics behind. No internal problem should block our external progress.

(The author is Dean at Nehru Memorial College, Trichy)

Writer: A Prabaharan

Courtesy: The Pioneer