Osama bin Laden, the world's most wanted terrorist, was killed early today by US special forces in a helicopter-borne operation at Abbottabad near the Pakistani capital, climaxing a over 10-year long massive manhunt. The special forces personnel swooped down on the compound where bin Laden was holed up guarded by his ultra-loyal Arab bodyguards in a pre-dawn operation killing the dreaded terrorist, US officials said. The news of the slaying of the world's most prominent terror mastermind was broken to the world by US President Barack Obama, who made the announcement live from White House."Bin Laden, 54, is dead and his body is in US custody," President Obama said at half-past 11 mid-night US time after initial story had been broken by news channels.

Though it was dark, crowds massed outside White House chanted 'USA, USA'. Besides the al-Qaeda chief who carried a bounty of USD 25 million, two couriers one of whom was his son and the other a woman, reportedly used as a human shield, were killed in the operation, unnamed American officials were quoted as saying by ABC News. First reports said that it was through these couriers that bin Laden had been traced. Other women and children present in the compound were not harmed, according to Pakistani officials.

An American helicopter was destroyed by US Navy Seals after it was damaged and crashed during the operation that targeted a large compound in Bilal Town area near Abbottabad, 120 km from Islamabad. There was no word from the Pakistani government or military on the operation. Two US helicopters swept into the compound at 1:30 am and 2 am and 20 to 25 Navy Seals under the command of the Joint Special Operations Command stormed the compound in cooperation with the CIA and engaged bin Laden and his men in a firefight, US officials told ABC News.

Bin Laden fired his weapon during the fight, the US officials said. The Americans took bin Laden's body into custody after the firefight and confirmed his identity. One of the US helicopters was damaged during the operation and the troops decided to destroy it themselves with explosives.

Several Pakistani news channels beamed grainy footage of a burning helicopter on the empty lawn of the compound. They also beamed footage of the compound surrounded by Pakistani troops this morning.

(OECEL News Services)

Subramanian Swamy: Where will he strike next?

He is accused of being a destroyer, the one who changes parties frequently, one who strikes at will, a megalomaniac, unpredictable and a Nehru-Gandhi family baiter. Economist-turned politician, Dr Subramanian Swamy fields the volley of accusations in his inimitable style and shares his views and plan of action in an exclusive interview with K Ramachandra Murthy

Dr Subramanian Swamy, the Harvard-educated economist-turned-politician, has been a fighter throughout his political career. Coming from a family with leftist ideology, his right-winged fundamentalism faced much derision. He calls Rajiv Gandhi a close friend, but has been a crusader against the Nehru-Gandhi family; his ardent Hindutva doesn't seem to impress the BJP who are wary of inviting him into the party.

The intelligentsia around the world respects him for his knowledge and the young Indians of the day vouch for him for his anti-corruption stand, that he showcases through his incessant tweets. He and his wife, Roxna Swamy, a Supreme Court advocate, have been campaigning against the 2G scam and have ruffled many a feather in the process.

He had a crucial role to play in the legal campaign and has won two cases - getting a time-frame to sanction prosecution against public servants and the judgement to scrap the 122 telecom licences. He however, lost one - to make Home Minister Chidambaram the co-accused. He has not given up yet. In an exclusive interview with SUNDAY HANS, he adds, "Chidambaram is unsuited for the post of Home Minister. Excerpts:

What is going on in New Delhi with five Chief Ministers taking on Home Minister Chidambaram?

It was an ill-advised move. All the Chief Ministers are not Congress party appointees. They are the people independently elected on their own strength. And, therefore, to suggest a measure which will de-value the state police in having the Central Police to conduct investigations is derogatory for the federalism of the country. Therefore, they have protested against it and the government didn't stand up for Chidambaram.

The Home Minister is trying to have a DGPs' conference bypassing Chief Ministers. It's actually immaturity on the part of Chidambaram. He is unsuited for the post of Home Minister.

But as a Home Minister he has committed statehood for Telangana people…He has and he went back on his word. He sent a list to Pakistan of people who are in their country asking their government to send them back to India. It turned out that two of them were in Indian jail and three of them were dead. He writes a letter saying that LET is responsible for Samjhoutha express and later on writes a letter saying it was a Hindu terrorist. What is this?

What happened to Chidambaram in 2G spectrum case? Is it a reprieve for him?

Well, these things happen in our country where one court says 'no', then another court says 'yes'. When I had gone to the Delhi High court for cancellation of licences it had rejected my plea. And then we went to Supreme Court and it had accepted it.

We are all human beings. Judges also are human and they make mistakes in law. In the case of justice Saini, he has agreed with everything that I said, that the decision making was jointly done by Chidambaram and Raja etc., but then he says that I have not shown any criminal intention of Chidambaram. Unfortunately that shows the judges have been working too much within the CRPC and the IPC.

Actually, in the Prevention of Corruption Act, a special provision was enacted only to free it from this concept of criminal intentions. Therefore, in the Prevention of Corruption Act, it says, if you are holding a public office and you benefit somebody to get extra money, and that is not in public interest, then it is corruption. So the judge should have applied that. It is not difficult for me to go to the Supreme Court and get it done. Chidambaram has not gone to the jail yet, but he will soon go.

So, it is not yet finished. You have not given up. Obviously, I have already filed Special Leave Petition (SLP) in the Supreme Court, and the date has been given as March 16.You seem to have some problems with Tamil Nadu politicians. Even Mani Shanker has said that you did not speak to him for two decades...

(Laughs) I have not spoken with him for decades. There is no point in talking to a man who is not serious. Any time and every time he makes silly remarks and tells lies to please Sonia Gandhi. So, how can I respect a man who is a chamcha?

You are now friendly with Jayalalithaa…

Now I am friendly with Jayalalithaa. I like her intelligence. She came to my house, and she said that she had acted with inexperience. I accepted… but I didn't withdraw the cases that I filed against her.

What according to you will happen in UP?

If there are no Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), the Congress will stand in the fourth position. It will not get more than 25 seats. Probably Mulayam Singh's party will be number one. Mulayam may also be close to the majority, he may not need any other party. But the consequence is that in the Presidential elections opposition President will be elected. Then I think mid-term poll will be held very soon for the Lok Sabha.

If there must be mid-term poll who do you think will gain - NDA or UPA?

NDA has to enthuse its party workers, particularly the BJP, their party workers are disheartened. In fact some people suggested that I should align with NDA and I have said I am ready. But I wonder what we shall say to people. Congress says development and secularism. Are we going to say the same thing? Then people may not give us much chance. I think we have a better chance if we say we will unite the country on the basis of Hindutva. Because today there is a feeling in Hindus that nobody is talking about them. So that sentiment needs to be captured. If there is an honest projection with a new set of faces, there may be a chance.

It means no Advani?

It means none of them. All those who were there in NDA government. People will not believe them.

It also means no Jaitley, Sushma and all the second rung leaders?

They can be the ministers. But to be the Prime Minister, it has to be a new face. It could be Modi. The problem with him is that, he will not get the majority and other allies will not come with him.

The killings of Muslims in Gujarat will also go against him. Do you think people in South India would vote for Modi?

(laughs) That's what I mean. He can deliver Gujarat but whether he can deliver in other places, we don't know.

That's why even BJP also is hesitating to project him as prime ministerial candidate Maybe. But they don't have anyone else.

He can at least get Gujarat. (laughs) That's right.

There are predictions that if the Congress gets about 100 seats in Uttar Pradesh, Rahul will take over from Manmohan Singh and if the Congress gets around 50 seats, Rahul will remain as an MP, Manmohan will continue. What do you have to say?

(Laughs) They say a lot of new changes are going to take place in the Congress. Sonia Gandhi has terminal cancer. Rahul is not a very intelligent person, neither is Sonia Gandhi. But Sonia has the backing of Vatican.

That's what Morarji said of Rajiv Gandhi, that he is not burdened by brains.

Yes, that's true. But he (Rajiv) was a nationalist.

You were close to him and you liked him.

He was basically a strong nationalist. That is what I liked about him. People made a fool of him; lot of people took advantage of him, especially Sonia, Arun Nehru and Arun Singh.

From the day you appeared in the Rajya Sabha during Emergency and created a sensation and then disappeared, till now, you have fought many a battle. What do you think of yourself and your position in Indian history when you look back?

When I came into politics, I said India needs three or four things to be done. Number one - It must give up socialism. When I said this, everyone was shocked. Ultimately, as a Minister, I got it done. Then, I said that we must have good and strong relations with Israel, which I ensured and it has since happened.

The third thing was that we must improve relations with China, and we should not be so dependent on the Soviet Union. When Morarji Desai became Prime Minister I had got Kailash Manasa sarovar opened. The fourth thing is that India can become a united country if you have a renaissance in Hinduism. I would like people to think of themselves more as Hindus than as Brahmins, Kshatriyas, North Indians or South Indians. I think that in contemporary history maybe things will not be so kind to me, because journalists get influenced by business houses. But when history gets recorded, it will be something like the improvement of the image of Sardar Patel - when he was alive nobody gave him much credit.

But Sardar Patel was considered the modern Bismark of India?

Yes, but those are afterwords. During his time nobody said so, as people were afraid that it might displease Jawaharlal Nehru. You have a very peculiar image. Maybe, it is because of the bias on the part of the journalists as you put it, but you are seen as a destroyer and one who changes parties frequently. One doesn't know where you will strike next, that you are a megalomaniac and unpredictable and that you are a Nehru-Gandhi family baiter forever. All that is wrong. First of all I have never changed the party. I joined the Jan Sangh and it merged with the Janata Party, I continue to be in Janata Party. I have had steady friends like Morarji Desai, Charan Singh, and I am not a Nehru family baiter because I had a great friendship with Rajiv Gandhi.

Nehru-Gandhi dynasty minus Rajiv?

(Laughs) That's a big minus. I did not know Jawaharlal Nehru. But as a historian, I think he was a bad Prime Minister. But to Indira Gandhi I was opposed because she was a socialist, pro-Soviet Union and then the Emergency. So, I had every reason to oppose her, and Sonia Gandhi naturally you know she had done a lot of harm to our country.

Don't you think the slowdown in the economy that affected a vast part of the globe did not affect India too much because of the Nehruvian economic policy?

No. All the countries that were affected by the collapse in America had weak banks. We have always had strong banks, that's because of the Reserve Bank.

Credit to the Reserve Bank of India, recently headed by two Telugus.

That's right. They both did a good job. Y V Reddy did much more. The current man (D Subba Rao) is not so good. If he was, he would have incriminated.

Now, can I say that your target is Sonia Gandhi?

She is the root cause of all problems. People blame Manmohan Singh, but it is Sonia Gandhi who prevented him from stopping Raja. And she got the biggest share of the bribe amount - of about Rs 36,000 crore.

Even in your battle against corruption, people say you are selective and that you are not fighting against every corrupt leader.

I agree, that is because I am an individual, I have no CBI with me, I have no money with me to throw around and I don't have a staff. I have to do everything myself. My wife is a lawyer and she takes most of the burden. So, I have to pick and choose. I can't catch everybody.

What do you think about Anna Hazare's movement or his fight against corruption?

Anna Hazare said corruption will be eliminated only if Jan Lokpal Bill is passed. I did not agree with that.

Do you think Jan Lok pal will come?

No, How can congress commit suicide?

BJP also was not ready for that...

I cannot defend BJP, they have to defend themselves.

You were close to PV Narasimha Rao. Do you think that he was treated properly by the Congress? Actually PV Once told me that he had asked the ministers to do whatever Sonia's secretary (George) asks them to... But what went wrong? Why had they become enemies?

He should have got Bharat Ratna for what he did. The economic reforms blueprint was prepared by me and he gave political support. Manmohan Singh only implemented it. But every-body gives Manmohan Singh the credit. I think Sonia Gandhi was unhappy with PV because he wouldn't give up party presidentship for her. She wanted him to remain as Prime Minister and give her the party presidentship. He told her that it has been the Congress tradition to have the Party President as the Prime Minister.

Don't you think it was wrong on his part to associate with people like Chandra Swamy?

What is wrong in associating with bad characters if you don't help them. Moreover, I don't think he met him more than a couple of times in a month.

But he used to enjoy unlimited access to PM's residence.

Yes. That is because he was a Swamiji. PV gave all Sawmiji’s the liber-ty to meet him directly. Newspapers only mentioned Chandra Swami.

But journalists also say that the Father of Indian economic reforms is Manmohan Singh.

That's wrong. If he could do all those big economic reforms then as a Finance Minister, what stops him now? So obviously it means that they have been Narasimha Rao's reforms.

What is your take on small states?

I am totally in favour of small states. First of all let us remember, no state is going to leave India, we are not talking about cutting the state out. Nowadays governance has become important. Every chief minister must be able to go and meet people of his state. In these large states, in the five years of regime chief minister is not able to go to every district. I don't think any state should be bigger than, say about 10 to 15 districts.

What do you expect the people of India to do now?

We are a very young population with over 70 percent below the age of 35. People have to take more risks. I want the people not to think of money as the final goal. You can't sacrifice your whole life for making money. The desire for more money is the reason for increased corruption. I will say don't imitate the West. Learn from our tradition and have the correct view of the history. Don't learn the British version of our history. I want people to take interest in politics...clean it up…don't complain!

Where will India be 20 years from now?

India will overtake China in ten years of time. China is going to have very big financial crisis. We will have a budgetary crisis but we are a democratic country so we can improve ourselves. When there is food crisis we had Green Revolution and when there was foreign exchange crisis we had economic reforms and so when we have a budgetary crisis we will have a more efficient government.

How do you like Dr. Swamy to be remembered?

As a man who said what he believed in and did what he liked.

The people have delivered their verdict and before the 2014 General elections, the message is loud and clear - a wake-up call for the national parties.

Several factors have contributed to the SP's kitty, anti-incumbency being just one of them. The Upper Caste or Brahmin vote which had aligned with the Bahujan Samaj Party enabling it to form a Government of its own, failed to work this time.

The 'Social Engineering' flopped though Chief Minister Mayawati rehabilitated the party's Brahmin face Satish Mishra and gave tickets to large number of Brahmins as the community felt that the development, if any, was confined to Ambedkar villages and perceived as provocative and wasteful the lavish spending on statues of Dalit icons.

Added to that was the Dalit leader's total disconnect with the masses, communication gap with the media and growing dependence on a motley crowd of bureaucrats and sycophants.

On the other hand, the Congress concentrated solely on the Muslim card and this last-minute rhetoric and aggressive wooing only proved counter-productive. The party, which till date, never took cognizance of the Sachar Committee Report or implemented the Rangnath Mishra Commission report was suddenly concerned about their plight. Statements about UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi weeping over the Batla House encounter victims, though later clarified, only served to distance the community further besides alienating the majority Hindus as well. The BJP, on its part, was a deeply divided house, seeking to cash in on the popularity of an 'imported leader' even as it ignored its own charismatic state leaders such as Varun Gandhi. The party's poster boy Narendra Modi avoided the state altogether exposing the chinks in its armour. The Kushwaha episode also did not add to its credibility.

Apart from restoring its credibility among Muslims, who had divorced Mulayam after his 'unholy' alliance with Kalyan Singh, the credit for SP's performance also goes to the emergence of Akhilesh Yadav as a leader to reckon with, one of the major highlights of this election. With his earthy wit and style, Mulayam junior was able to charm the large number of young voters, who saw in him a fresh breeze and a future leader.

Of course, the promises of unemployment and health doles, computers and other sops also contributed immensely in adding to the SP's kitty and if the party falters on these, the same voters would show it the door in the 2014 general elections.

An overestimation of Manpreet Badal's ability to divide the Akalis, inability to woo Dera Sacha Sauda voters and Captain Amarinder Singh's failure to match up to Badal senior's stature and appeal proved to be the Congress' undoing in Punjab while in Uttarakhand, incumbent B.C. Khanduri's image appears to have saved the day for BJP. Much would also depend on how BSP would play its cards in the state.

Absence of a credible opposition and the entry of Naga People's Front helped the consolidation in favour of the ruling Congress in Manipur while the massive corruption seems to have queered the pitch for the party in Goa.

Of course, the civil society activists or the anti-corruption movement launched by them also hurt the Congress across the country. Congress would certainly be on the backfoot, particularly ahead of the Rajya Sabha and Presidential elections later this year.

The BJP too would do well not to rest on laurels if it retains Uttarakhand and Punjab and wrests Goa from Congress.

The results in electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh shows it has miles to go before the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. There is no credible national leadership that guides BJP today and the state leadership are fighting to build supremacy over each other rather than going to the masses. The every decision made The results in electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh shows it has miles to go before the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. There is no credible national leadership that guides BJP today and the state leadership are fighting to build supremacy over each other rather than going to the masses. The every decision made lacks proper planning and the accountability factor is drastically missing with the party leadership. RSS is an obsolete organization trying to bring wild ideas in a old country but having young population.

As for Congress, it is time for serious introspection. Otherwise they would end up the 'India Shining' way.

The talk in the party is that Rahul's 'Mission UP 2012' collapsed due to off the cuff remarks, controversial comments and raking up of sentimental issues by senior party leaders including Union ministers.

A section of the party contends that the 4.5 per cent reservation for minorities decided by the Congress-led coalition at the Centre just a few days before the announcement of the election schedule did more harm than good for the party. This section says that detractors of the party were quick to project the move as one detrimental to interests of backward Muslims in UP.

The statements of Union Minister Salman Khurshid on the Muslim sub-quota issue added fuel to fire, while, at the same time, antagonising the Election Commission.

The statements of Union ministers Beni Prasad Verma and Sriprakash Jaiswal did not help matters. The raking up of the Batla encounter issue by Congress General Secretary Digvijay Singh also appeared to have not gone down well with the Muslims. Such statements appeared to have helped the BJP to polarise the voter to a certain extent. Party leaders insist that sizable support from Muslims in the 2009 elections had ensured the Congress to win as many as 22 Lok Sabha seats giving the first signs of the revival of the organisation in its one-time bastion. But the Muslims may have shifted away this time, they feel.

Congress has been in political wilderness in UP for the past 22 years in the wake of the Mandal and Mandir upsurge.

In almost all of these 22 Lok Sabha seats, Muslim vote was crucial ranging from two to three lakh and in constituencies like Moradabad it was upto six lakh.

At that time, a sizable section of Muslims was having second thoughts in backing Mulayam Singh Yadav as the SP supremo had tied up with Kalyan Singh who was the BJP chief minister during demolition of Babri Masjid in December 1992.

The statements by some leaders of likely imposition of President's rule in UP if the Congress failed to get majority created an atmosphere of instability and sent the signal that the party was not confident to form government on its own.

Congress in UP, a section feels, failed to present a united picture in the campaign as leaders started making one-upmanship to project themselves as the chief ministerial candidates.

As against this, Yadav went methodically to correct his mistakes and win back the Muslim support that had earned him the sobriquet of Maulana Mulayam for the way he protected minorities after the demolition of Babri Masjid. Mulayam brought in his son Akhilesh Yadav as the Uttar Pradesh SP chief giving unmistakable signals that the younger Yadav will battle it out with Gandhi for the UP turf.

Inputs PTI & Courtesy K.G. Suresh is a Delhi-based senior journalist.

The people have delivered their verdict and before the 2014 General elections, the message is loud and clear – a wake up call for the national parties. Several factors have contributed to the SP’s kitty, anti-incumbency being just one of them. The Upper Caste or Brahmin vote which had aligned with the Bahujan Samaj Party enabling it to form a Government of its own, failed to work this time. The ‘Social Engineering’ flopped though Chief Minister Mayawati rehabilitated the party’s Brahmin face Satish Mishra and gave tickets to large number of Brahmins as the community felt that the development, if any, was con- fined to Ambedkar villages and perceived as provocative and wasteful the lavish spending on statues of Dalit icons. Added to that was the Dalit leader’s total disconnect with the masses, communication gap with the media and growing dependence on a motley crowd of bureaucrats and sycophants.

On the other hand, the Congress concentrated solely on the Muslim card and this last minute rhetoric and aggressive wooing only proved counter- productive. The party, which till date, never took cognizance of the Sachar  Committee Report or implemented the Rangnath Mishra Commission report was suddenly concerned about their plight. Statements about UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi weeping over the Batla House encounter victims, though later clarified, only served to distance the community further besides alienating the majority Hindus as well.

The BJP, on its part, was a deeply divided house, seeking to cash in on the popularity of an ‘imported leader’ even as it ignored its own charismatic state leaders such as Varun Gandhi. The party’s poster boy Narendra Modi avoided the state altogether exposing the chinks in its armour. The Kushwaha episode also did not add to its credibility.

Apart from restoring its credibility among Muslims, who had divorced Mulayam after his ‘unholy’ alliance with Kalyan Singh, the credit for SP’s performance also goes to the emergence of Akhilesh Yadav as a leader to reckon with, one of the major highlights of this election. With his earthy wit and style, Mulayam junior was able to charm the large number of young voters, who saw in him a fresh breeze and a future leader.

Of course, the promises of unemployment and health doles, computers and other sops also contributed immensely in adding to the SP’s kitty and if the party falters on these, the same voters would show it the door in the 2014 general elections. An over estimation of Manpreet Badal’s ability to divide the Akalis, inability to woo Dera Sacha Sauda voters and Captain Amarinder Singh’s failure to match up to Badal senior’s stature and appeal proved to be the Congress’ undoing in Punjab while in Uttarakhand, incumbent B.C. Khanduri’s image appears to have saved the day for BJP. Much would also depend on how BSP would play its cards in the state. Absence of a credible opposition and the entry of Naga People’s Front helped the consolidation in favor of the ruling Congress in Manipur while the massive corruption seems to have queered the pitch for the party in Goa.

Of course, the civil society activists or the anti-corruption movement launched by them also hurt the Congress across the country. Congress would certainly be on the back foot, particularly ahead of the Rajya Sabha and Presidential elections later this year. The BJP too would do well not to rest on laurels if it retains Uttarakhand and Punjab and wrests Goa from Congress. The results in electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh shows it has miles to go before the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. There is no credible national leadership that guides BJP today and the state leader- ship are fighting to build supremacy over each other rather than going to the masses. The every decision made lacks proper planning and the account- ability factor is drastically missing with the party leadership. RSS is an obsolete organization trying to bring wild ideas in a old country but having young population.

As for Congress, it is time for serious introspection. Otherwise they would end up the ‘India Shining’ way. The talk in the party is that Rahul’s ‘Mission UP 2012’ collapsed due to off the cuff remarks, controversial comments and raking up of sentimental issues by senior party leaders including Union ministers.

A section of the party contends that the 4.5 per cent reservation for minorities decided by the Congress-led coalition at the Center just a few days before the announcement of the election schedule did more harm than good for the party. This section says that detractors of the party were quick to project the move as one detrimental to interests of backward Muslims in UP. The statements of Union Minister Salman Khurshid on the Muslim sub- quota issue added fuel to fire, while, at the same time, antagonizing the Election Commission.

The statements of Union ministers Beni Prasad Verma and Sriprakash Jaiswal did not help matters. The raking up of the Batla encounter issue by Congress General Secretary Digvijay Singh also appeared to have not gone down well with the Muslims. Such statements appeared to have helped the BJP to polarize the voter to a certain extent. Party leaders insist that sizable sup-port from Muslims in the 2009 elections had ensured the Congress to win as many as 22 Lok Sabha seats giving the first signs of the revival of the organization in its one-time bastion. But the Muslims may have shifted away this time, they feel.

Congress has been in political wilderness in UP for the past 22 years in the wake of the Mandal and Mandir upsurge. In almost all of these 22 Lok Sabha seats, Muslim vote was crucial ranging from two to three lakh and in con- stituencies like Moradabad it was upto six lakh. At that time, a sizable section of Muslims was having second thoughts in backing Mulayam Singh Yadav as the SP supremo had tied up with Kalyan Singh who was the BJP chief minister during demolition of Babri Masjid in December 1992. The statements by some leaders of likely imposition of President’s rule in UP if the Congress failed to get majority created an atmosphere of instability and sent the signal that the party was not confident to form government on its own. Congress in UP, a section feels, failed to present a united picture in the campaign as leaders started making one upmanship to project themselves as the chief ministerial candidates.

As against this, Yadav went methodically to correct his mistakes and win back the Muslim support that had earned him the sobriquet of Maulana Mulayam for the way he protected minorities after the demolition of Babri Masjid.Mulayam brought in his son Akhilesh Yadav as the Uttar Pradesh SP chief giving unmistakable signals that the younger Yadav will battle it out with Gandhi for the UP turf.

Inputs PTI & Courtesy K.G. Suresh is a Delhi-bbased senior journalist .

WASHINGTON: American officials who have assessed the likely Iranian responses to any attack by Israel on its nuclear program believe that Iran would retaliate by launching missiles on Israel and terrorist-style attacks on United States civilian and military personnel overseas.

While a missile retaliation against Israel would be virtually certain, according to these assessments, Iran would also be likely to try to calibrate its response against American targets so as not to give the United States a ration- ale for taking military action that could permanently cripple Tehran’s nuclear program. “The Iranians have been pretty good masters of escalation control,” said Gen. James E. Cartwright, now retired, who as the top officer at Strategic Command and as vice chair- man of the Joint Chiefs of Staff participated in war games involving both deterrence and retaliation on potential adversaries like Iran.

The Iranian targets, General Cartwright and other American analysts believe, would include petroleum infra- structure in the Persian Gulf, and American troops in Afghanistan, where Iran has been accused of shipping explosives to local insurgent forces.

Both American and Israeli officials who discussed current thinking on the potential ramifications of an Israeli attack believe that the last thing Iran would want is a full-scale war on its territory. Their analysis, however, also includes the broad caveat that it is impossible to know the internal thinking of the senior leadership in Tehran, and is informed by the awareness that even the most detailed war games cannot predict how nations and their leaders will react in the heat of conflict. Yet such assessments are not just intellectual exercises. Any conclusions on how the Iranians will react to an attack will help determine whether the Israelis launch a strike – and what the American position will be if they do.

While evidence suggests that Iran continues to make progress toward a nuclear weapons program, American intelligence officials believe that there is no hard evidence that Iran has decided to build a nuclear bomb. But the possibility that Israel will launch a preemptive strike has become a focus of American policy makers and is expected to be a primary topic when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel meets with President Obama at the White House on Monday.

In November, Israel’s defense minister, Ehud Barak, said any Iranian retaliation for an Israeli attack would be “bearable,” and his government’s estimate that Iran is engaging in a bluff has been a key element in the heightened expectations that Israel is considering a strike. But Iran’s highly compartmentalized security services, analysts caution, may operate in semi-rogue fashion, fol- lowing goals that seem irrational to planners in Washington. American experts, for example, are still puzzled by a suspected Iranian plot last year to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington.

“Once military strikes and counter strikes begin, you are on the tiger’s back,” said Ray Takeyh, a former Obama administration national security official who is now at the Council on Foreign Relations. “And when on the tiger’s back, you cannot always pick the place to dismount.” If Israel did attack, officials said, Iran would be foolhardy, even suicidal, to invite an overpowering retaliation by directly attacking United States military targets by, for example, unleashing its missiles at American bases on the territory of Persian Gulf allies. “The balance the Iranians will try to strike is doing damage that is sufficiently significant, but just short of what it would take for America to invade,” said General Cartwright, now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

A former Israeli official said the best way to think about retaliation against Israel was through a formula he called “1991 plus 2006 plus Buenos Aires times 3 or 5.” The reference was to three instances in the last two decades when Israel came under attack: the Scud missiles sent by Saddam Hussein into Israel in 1991 during the first gulf war; the 3,000 rockets fired at Israel by Hezbollah during their 2006 war; and the attacks on the Israeli Embassy and a Jewish center in Argentina in the early 1990s. Those attacks each killed 100 to 200 people, wounded scores more and caused several billion dollars of property damage. Hundreds of thou- sands of Israelis in the north had to be evacuated from their homes to bomb shelters or further south during the 2006 war.

But there is a broad Israeli assessment that Iran’s response to an attack would be limited. “If Iran is struck surgically, it will react – no doubt,” said the former Israeli official, echoing Mr. Barak’s comments last year. “But that reaction will be calculated and in proportion to its capabilities. Iran will not set the Middle East on fire.”

“Is 40 missiles on Tel Aviv nice?” the official asked, summing up the Israeli calculus. “No. But it’s better than a nuclear Iran.”

By contrast, administration, military and intelligence officials say Iran would most likely choose anonymous, indirect attacks against nations it views as supporting Israeli policy, in the hope of offering Tehran at least public deniability. Iran also might try to block, even temporarily, the Strait of Hormuz to further unsettle oil markets.

An increase in car bombs set off against civilian targets in world capitals would also be possible. And Iran would almost certainly smuggle high powered explosives across its border into Afghanistan, where they could be plant- ed along roadways and set off by surrogate forces to kill and maim American and NATO troops much as it did in Iraq during the peak of violence there. But Iran’s primary goal would be quickly rebuilding – and probably accelerating its nuclear program, and thus, according to these assessments, it would be likely to try to avoid inviting a punishing second wave of attacks by the United States.

Vali Nasr, a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, said Iran would “have to retaliate visibly against Israel to protect its image at home and in the region.” Along a second line of reprisals, Iran also “would try and keep the United States busy by escalating tensions in Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Iraq and Afghanistan,” he said.

In 2009, the Brookings Institution held a simulation to assess Day 2 of an Israeli attack on Iran, casting former government officials, diplomats and regional experts in the roles of American, Israeli and Iranian officials. Karim Sadjadpour, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, played Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The faux Iranian leader- ship had to “calibrate their response with great precision,” he said. “If they respond too little, they could lose face, and if they respond too much, they could lose their heads.”

During the simulation, Iran also fired missiles at Israeli military and nuclear targets, and unleashed Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants to fire rockets at population centers in Israel, with a goal to create an atmosphere of terror among Israelis. In the simulation, Iran also activated terrorist cells in Europe, which bombed public transportation and killed civilians.

Mr. Sadjadpour said that one thing the exercise demonstrated was how quickly things would deteriorate, adding that “as for long-term consequences, it’s way too murky to say anything but this: It will be ugly.”

Thom Shanker and Helene Cooper reported from Washington, and Ethan Bronner from Jerusalem. Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington.

– OE News Bureau

Admitting that “some compromises” have to be made in managing a coalition, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today said that his government will bring the wrongdoers in scams to book, but ruled out quitting from his post. In his opening remarks Dr Singh said, “An impression has gone around that we are a scam driven country.” He added “This is weakening the self confidence of the people of India, and denting the image of the country. We owe it to our country that at least in dealing with facts, we should be as objective as possible.”

“I wish to assure the country as a whole that our government is dead serious about bringing to book all wrongdoers regardless of the position they occupy,” he said. less of the position they occupy,” he said.He asserted that his government was not lame duck nor was he a lame duck Prime Minister and it was a functioning government that would go after the scamsters.

“I have never felt like quitting, I will stay the course,” the Prime Minister told television editors and bureau chiefs at a media interaction at 7 Race Course Road, his official residence. “I never felt like resigning because I had a job to do,” Manmohan Singh said in response to a question on whether he felt like quitting over the many allegations of corruption against his government. (Read: Never felt like quitting as I have a job to do, says PM) “In a coalition government, there is a coalition dharma,” he stated. Manmohan Singh said he was not afraid of appearing before any committee, including a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC). There is, he said, an “entirely wrong impression that I was blocking the agreement on a JPC. I have always said my conduct should be, like Caesar’s wife, above suspicion”.

During the 70-minute interaction, the Prime Minister fielded a wide range of questions covering mainly issues of corruption including the ISRO’s deal on S band spectrum, governance deficit, economy and Parliament stand off. “I don’t deny that we need to improve quality of governance, ” said the Prime Minister, admitting, ” I don’t say I have never made any mistake. But I am not that big a culprit as being made out to be.” To a question what was his biggest regret in UPA-II, Singh said that “these irregularities have happened. They should not have happened. I am not very happy about these developments”.

– OE News Bureau

Hosni Mubarak military council, leading to widespread celebrations in the streets of the country on Friday.

“The people have toppled the regime,” chanted protesters, whose 18 days of swelling protests forced the 30-year-long autocratic government to quit.At the presidential palace in Cairo, where demonstrators had gathered in the thousands, people flashed the V-for-victory sign and shouted, “Be happy, Egyptians, today is a feast” and “He stepped down.”

They handed out candy. Many prayed and declared: “God is great.” Crowds packed Tahrir (Liberation) Square, the scene of massive protests against Mubarak that began on January 25. The celebrations continued early Saturday, with throngs of people milling around in downtown Cairo.”Egypt is free. We are a great people and we did something great. This is the expected end for every dictator,” said one demonstrator.Others warned that Egypt still faces many challenges, including how to go about ensuring a peaceful transition to free elections and a full democracy. Some soldiers joined the crowd in the square to celebrate. Protesters lifted them onto their shoulders. Other troops stayed Some soldiers joined the crowd in the square to celebrate. Protesters lifted them onto their shoulders. Other troops stayed at their posts, watching the scene in awe. People posed with them for photo- graphs in front of tanks. Flag-waving children climbed onto the vehicles.

The protesters’ barricades that had controlled entry to the square were dismantled, and security checkpoints at which demonstrators showed identification and had their bags searched were also gone. Several hundred thousand protesters cheered outside the presidential palace of Rasel-Tin in coastal Alexandria.They also waved flags, whistled and danced.

People in the southern city of Assiut fired guns in the air as they roamed the streets on motorcycles or pickup trucks. Coffee houses distributed free sweet drinks to anyone who walked by.

Mubarak resignation creates political vacuum for US in Middle East

President Hosni Mubarak’s decision to step down after three decades in power presents the Obama administration with a political vacuum in the Middle East.According to the Washington Post, the Obama administration will be compelled to shift roles from managing a volatile political standoff that paralyzed a regional ally to ensuring that Egypt’s commanding generals, many of them trained in the United States, carry out the political and legal changes necessary to guarantee fair elections later this year.

According to the paper, Washington is now looking beyond on the ground situations in Cairo, Tunis and Amman.It is looking at how to encourage the election of governments that are responsive to their electorates and to U.S. interests.Ben Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser for strategic communication, said the administration had reached out by phone to officials across the Arab world in recent days to assure them that the United States intends “to keep its commitments.”But a senior Republican member of Congress who has access to intelligence reports said U.S. spy agencies have seen recent indications that other Middle East leaders were dismayed by the United States’ treatment of Mubarak. An expert on terrorism, Middle East politics and Homeland Security issues has said Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s exit will usher a new political process in Egypt.Institute for Advanced Computer Studies Researcher Aaron Mannes of the University of Maryland said it could be the beginning of an Egyptian renaissance, or even an era of far greater tyranny and in stability in the region.He also said the Egyptian leadership military or civilian, would be ” hard- pressed” to tackle the country’s innumerable social, economic, and political problems.”There are no instant solutions to these problems. So far, the Egyptian protesters have appeared moderate in tone and action. But a new government that has difficulty coping with its challenges may turn to radicalism or repression,” Mannes added.Turning the economy around would be the primary concern of Egypt.”Although Egypt was liberalizing its economy and the overall macro-economic numbers were strong, most Egyptians were not benefiting. Unfortunately two of Egypt’s leading sources of income, tourism and tolls on the Suez Canal, will be adversely affected by ongoing turmoil, reducing the Egyptian government’s options for addressing the national challenges,” Manas said.

Israel has reacted with quiet and deep concern over the exit of long-term ally Hosni Mubarak as the president of Egypt.The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintained the same studied silence on the assumption that nothing it said could serve its interests.

Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they were worried that a post Mubarak regime could be less friendly to Israel.”We don’t know who will be running things in the coming months in Egypt, but we have to keep two things in mind.

The first is that the only example we have of this kind of thing in the region is Iran in 1979. You can’t take that out of your mind. The second is that if Egypt pulls back in any way from its peace with Israel, it will discourage anyone else in the region, including the Palestinians, from stepping forward. So the regional implications for us are significant,” the New York Times quoted one official, as saying.

The official said it was more likely than not that Egypt would maintain its peace treaty with Israel and added that, in any case, relations with Israel would probably not be among the first concerns of the incoming Egyptian authorities.

Prime Minister Netanyahu laid out three possible situations after Mubarak resigned. He said: “First, Egyptians may choose to embrace the model of a secular reformist state with a prominent role for the military.

There is a second possibility that the Islamists exploit the influence to gradually take the country into a reverse direction – not towards modernity and reform but backward.”And there’s still a third possibility that Egypt would go the way of Iran, where calls for progress would be silenced by a dark and violent despotism that subjugates its own people and threatens everyone else.”Mubarak is reported to have told close friend and former Israeli defense minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer that he saw great peril ahead for Egypt.”He spoke about a snowball that was starting to roll, which would not leave a single Arab state untouched in either the Middle East or North Africa,” the NYT quoted Ben-Eliezer, as saying.”He spoke of his disappointment with the Americans,” he added.Across the border, in Palestine, marches were held in the Gaza Strip on Friday. The marchers chanted against Mubarak and also against President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, whom they consider a traitor.Hamas officials are calling on Egypt to open its border with Gaza completely.

– OE News Bureau

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh defends himself against accusations that his government had become a lame duck amid corruption scandals that have weakened his ruling coalition.

CORRUPTION CASES SPIRAL, LEADING TO MORE POLICY PARALYSIS

The prime minister is facing a slew of corruption scandals, including accusations that his Congress party-led government lost up to $39 billion after telecom licences were sold to companies at rock-bottom prices in return for kickbacks.There could be a repeat of 1989, when Congress lost a general election due to the Bofors scandal over gun contracts involving close associates of then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi who were accused of taking bribes.

Given that a general election is not due until 2014, Singh may have hoped the current scandals would ebb. But an aggressive media, an assertive Supreme Court and an opposition tasting political blood means momentum into probes has grown.More graft probes could also increase tensions between the Congress Party and its regional DMK ally, accused by federal police of being linked to the telecoms scam.

The government appears close to agreeing to a parliamentary probe in return for the opposition allowing the parliamentary budget session to operate unhindered from late February.That probe could see months, even years, of ministers being called to give evidence, overshadowing Singh’s second term.That could halt any reform bills, including land acquisition reform, which attempts to reconcile the interests of farmers and corporate India in a country where tussles over ownership can scupper billion-dollar project.

That may compound investor problems in India. Foreign direct investment has fallen for three consecutive years, from 2.9 per- cent of GDP in 2008/09 to around 1.8 percent of GDP in 2010/11. Some of this has to do with the global economic slow- down, but regulatory uncertainty is also a factor.

The Congress Party is unlikely to move faster on long-pending economic reforms such as opening up supermarket or financial sectors to foreign investors. The government may introduce changes to the telecoms sector, such as giving more muscle to the telecoms regulator.

If those scandals were not bad enough, the Congress government faces a host of state elections this year that will take the political temperature of an electorate ahead of the 2014 general election.These include West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, two crucial states that help give Congress a majority in parliament. If Congress does badly in these elections, it could convince coalition partners it is time to jump ship or at least distance them- selves from the government, meaning further policy paralysis.Congress has a rough 18 seat majority in parliament. If the ruling Congress ally, the DMK, loses the Tamil Nadu election, it saps strength from the coalition.

Many commentators expect a more populist budget on Feb 28, to give the government some chance of doing well in the elections. But more spending on Congress’s main social welfare programmes would come amid high inflation and signs of fiscal strains. That could mean the government failing to deal with fuel subsidies, more cash for food programs as well as education and health. The government bases its plans on jumps in tax collections on high economic growth.

THE PRIME MINISTER GOES

Unlikely, but possible. The 78-year-old Singh is widely seen as an honest elder statesman who plays second fiddle to Congress head Sonia Gandhi, the real power behind the throne. But the scandals may have taken a heavy toll on the prime minister, concerned his legacy is transforming from one of being the founders of India’s economic boom to someone who did nothing to stop corruption or policy paralysis.

Singh, who underwent a second heart operation in 2009, could step down some time before the 2014 election to make way for a successor. Sonia Gandhi could also push him out. While family scion Rahul Gandhi is seen as prime minister in waiting, he is still young and has rejected ministerial jobs in Singh’s government – instead focusing on the youth wing of the Congress Party. Some say he is too inexperienced to run India.That may mean Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee or Defence Minister A.K. Antony could become prime minister, perhaps on an interim basis.

THE GOVERNMENT RECOVERS

It may be too early to count out the Congress Party, especially with three years to the next general election. It is still the biggest national party and has the Gandhi family name and an extensive network of political influence.

One thing that could bolster the government this year would be a good performance in state elections and there are signs the party or its regional coalition allies could do well, mainly because it is fighting some unpopular incumbents.Congress is likely to do well in Assam, Kerala and West Bengal states. The latter state election could see the end of the world’s longest ruling democratically elected communist government. The opposition is Trinamool Congress, a Congress ally.It could do well in Tamil Nadu, where its regional DMK ally is under pressure from the opposition but still may win.Congress can also spend more money on social welfare schemes, such as the rural employment scheme that is seen as helping the party win re-election in 2004. It could also start new schemes such as one giving cheap food grains to the poor. The government agreeing to a joint parliamentary probe may also take the wind out of the opposition’s sails.”If the elections come off reasonably well and the BJP is robbed of an issue, the Congress can cover some ground. But it has to work quickly. Fast track investigations, convictions that will send out a positive mes- sage,” said political analyst Amulya Ganguli.

THE OPPOSITION IMPLODES

One of the biggest advantages for the government may be the poor quality of the opposition, led by the Hindu nationaist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).While the party has been vocal in its condemnation of corruption, it straddles uneasily between its modern focus and grassroots Hindu nationalism. A failed march by the BJP to place an Indian flag in disputed Kashmir, for example, was widely seen as a political mistake that alienated middle class voters.Remarks by former BJP telecoms minister Arun Shourie on Monday, which accused senior party leaders Arun Jaitleyand Sushma Swaraj of not doing enough to make publicize the scandal, exposed further cracks in the opposition.The BJP also has its own corruption scandals to tackle in the southern state of Karnataka, where the party is in pow-er. And some of its leaders, like Narendra Modi, chief minister of Gujarat state, are also highly controversial for their alleged role in fomenting religious violence against Muslims.

CORRUPTION CASES SPIRAL, LEADING TO MORE POLICY PARALYSIS

The prime minister is facing a slew of corruption scandals, including accusations that his Congress party led government lost up to $39 billion after telecom licenses were sold to companies at rock-bottom prices in return for kickbacks.There could be a repeat of 1989, when Congress lost a general election due to the Bofors scandal over gun contracts involving close associates of then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi who were accused of taking bribes.

Given that a general election is not due until 2014, Singh may have hoped the current scandals would ebb. But an aggressive media, an assertive Supreme Court and an opposition tasting political blood means momentum into probes has grown.More graft probes could also increase tensions between the Congress Party and its regional DMK ally, accused by federal police of being linked to the telecom scam.

The government appears close to agreeing to a parliamentary probe in return for the opposition allowing the parliamentary budget session to operate unhindered from late February.That probe could see months, even years, of ministers being called to give evidence, overshadowing Singh’s second term.That could halt any reform bills, including land acquisition reform, which attempts to reconcile the interests of farmers and corporate India in a country where tussles over ownership can scupper billion-dollar project.

That may compound investor problems in India. Foreign direct investment has fallen for three consecutive years, from 2.9 percent of GDP in 2008/09 to around 1.8 percent of GDP in 2010/11. Some of this has to do with the global economic slow- down, but regulatory uncertainty is also a factor. The Congress Party is unlikely to move faster on long pending economic reforms such as opening up supermarket or financial sectors to foreign investors. The government may introduce changes to the telecom sector, such as giving more muscle to the telecom regulator.

STATE ELECTIONS WEAKEN RULING COALITION

If those scandals were not bad enough, the Congress government faces a host of state elections this year that will take the political temperature of an electorate ahead of the 2014 general election.These include West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, two crucial states that help give Congress a majority in parliament.

If Congress does badly in these elections, it could convince coalition partners it is time to jump ship or at least distance them- selves from the government, meaning further policy paralysis.Congress has a rough 18 seat majority in parliament. If the ruling Congress ally, the DMK, loses the Tamil Nadu election, it saps strength from the coalition. Many commentators expect a more populist budget on Feb 28, to give the government some chance of doing well in the elections. But more spending on Congress’s main social welfare programs would come amid high inflation and signs of fiscal strains. That could mean the government failing to deal with fuel subsidies, more cash for food programs as well as education and health. The government bases its plans on jumps in tax collections on high economic growth.

THE PRIME MINISTER GOES

Unlikely, but possible. The 78-year old Singh is widely seen as an honest elder statesman who plays second fiddle to Congress head Sonia Gandhi, the real power behind the throne. But the scandals may have taken a heavy toll on the prime minister, concerned his legacy is transforming from one of being the founders of India’s economic boom to someone who did nothing to stop corruption or policy paralysis.

Singh, who underwent a second heart operation in 2009, could step down some time before the 2014 election to make way for a successor. Sonia Gandhi could also push him out. While family scion Rahul Gandhi is seen as prime minister in waiting, he is still young and has rejected ministerial jobs in Singh’s government instead focusing on the youth wing of the Congress Party. Some say he is too inexperienced to run India.That may mean Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee or Defense Minister A.K. Antony could become prime minister, perhaps on an interim basis.

THE GOVERNMENT RECOVERS

It may be too early to count out the Congress Party, especially with three years to the next general election. It is still the biggest national party and has the Gandhi family name and an extensive network of political influence. One thing that could bolster the government this year would be a good performance in state elections and there are signs the party or its regional coalition allies could do well, mainly because it is fighting some unpopular incumbents.

Congress is likely to do well in Assam, Kerala and West Bengal states. The latter state election could see the end of the world’s longest ruling democratically elect- ed communist government. The opposition is Trinamool Congress, a Congress ally .It could do well in Tamil Nadu, where its regional DMK ally is under pressure from the opposition but still may win.

Congress can also spend more money on social welfare schemes, such as the rural employment scheme that is seen as helping the party win re-election in 2004. It could also start new schemes such as one giving cheap food grains to the poor. The government agreeing to a joint parliamentary probe may also take the wind out of the opposition’s sails.”If the elections come off reasonably well and the BJP is robbed of an issue, the Congress can cover some ground. But it has to work quickly. Fast track investigations, convictions  that will send out a positive mes- sage,” said political analyst Amulya Ganguli.

THE OPPOSITION IMPLODES

One of the biggest advantages for the government may be the poor quality of the opposition, led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). While the party has been vocal in its condemnation of corruption, it straddles uneasily between its modern focus and grassroots Hindu nationalism. A failed march by the BJP to place an Indian flag in disputed Kashmir, for example, was widely seen as a political mistake that alienated middle class voters. The BJP also has its own corruption scandals to tackle in the southern state of Karnataka, where the party is in power. And some of its leaders, like Narendra Modi, chief minister of Gujarat state, are also highly controversial for their alleged role in fomenting religious violence against Muslims.

 – OE News Bureau

She can talk casually about a designer gown she hasn’t found an occasion to wear with industrialist Ratan Tata and chat up with the same ease with some of the most powerful people in politics, business and media to allegedly fix the telecom ministry for A. Raja Kenya-born and London educated Niira Radia was perhaps destined to fly high, but little did she know that she would be trapped by tell-tale tapes one day and be come the face of a multi-billion dollar scam.

Not many knew about her till Open magazine three weeks ago blew the cover off 5,800 reported taped conversations from Radia’s phone over a six- month period in 2009 that stunned the nation with intimate disclosures about the incestuous world of the powerful and power-mongers.

The tapes show the chameleon lobbyist talking with top industrialists and star journalists, hard-selling DMK politician A. Raja’s bid for the second stint at telecom ministry. Even as more skeletons tumble out of the closet and insinuations are being made about her being an agent of a foreign intelligence agency, there is very little known about her background and her meteoric rise to fame. Radia, said to be in her fifties, movedto London from Kenya in the 1970s and schooled at the elite school Haberdashers’ Aske’s in northern London. She graduated from the University of Warwick and got married to UK businessman Janak Radia, a Gujarati. The marriage did not click and the divorced Radia moved to India in midnineties. She started off as Sahara liaison officer and soon became India representative of Singapore Airlines, KLM, UK Air.

It is during this time she forged her powerful contacts in the civil aviation ministry, the government and the media. By this time, Radia’s sprawling Chhattarpur farmhouse was generating much buzz among New Delhi’s bold and beautiful.Some of her prized contacts included Ananth Kumar, civil aviation minister during NDA’s tenure in 1998-99, and Ranjan Bhattacharya, foster son-in-law of then prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. She tried to float an airline, Crown Air, in 2000, but the plan did not take off. In 2001, she set up Vaishnavi Communications, followed by Noesis, Victom and Neucom Consulting. Radia’s big-ticket break came when she bagged all 90 Tata group accounts in 2001. She is rumored to have such an influence over Ratan Tata that the top industrialist does not tolerate anyone speaking ill of her to his face. Another crowing moment was when Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries Limited joined her clients’ list in 2008.

What made her tick?

“She was leveraging the power of her clients who are some of the most powerful businessmen in the country,” Prashant Bhushan, a senior lawyer who filed a public interest litigation seeking the prosecution of Raja on the basis of the taped conversations of Radia, told IANS. In 2009, her ambitions soared further as she moved from corporate lobbying to fixing the lucrative telecom ministry, resulting in a scam that depleted the national exchequer by billions of rupees. Her overarching ambition perhaps became her nemesis when a suspicious IT department taped her conversations at the time of cabinet formation last year in UPA-II. Those tapes have now become part of the national conversation, showing a small elite subverting the system with impunity.

Fresh tapes of Radia’s conversations released by Outlook magazine reveal her telling Tarun Das, then chief mentor of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), that DMK chief M. Karunanidhi was insistent party member Raja retain his portfolio, despite questions over the manner in which airwaves were allotted to telecom firms. The government has told the Supreme Court that it authorized the tapping of PR executive Niira Radia’s phone.The government’s response was filed by the Ministry of Finance.

It said that the process of tapping Radia’s phone began on August 19, 2008 after a complaint received by the Finance Minister on November 16, 2007. The complaint had alleged that Radia in a span of just nine years built up a business empire worth Rs. 300 crore.It also alleged Radia was an agent of foreign intelligence agencies and she was indulging in anti-national activities.The affidavit states, “15 telephone lines including cell phone and SMSs of Radia and her associates were intercepted after the finance minister in November 2007 had received a complaint that the lobbyist had within a short span of nine years built up a business empire worth Rs. 300 crore and she was an agent of foreign intelligence agencies and was indulging in anti-national activities.”

The Finance Ministry then sought the Home Ministry’s clearance to tap Radia’s phone lines. 5800 phone calls were tapped during two periods: 120 days in 2008 and 60 days during 2009. A spokesperson of Radia’s firm, Vaishnavi Corporate Communications, has denied these allegations, saying she has never indulged in anti-national activities. The statement says, “There are queries arising from a case which is subjudice before the Honorable Supreme Court to which we are not a party. Therefore it is not within our knowledge and we cannot comment on the veracity of this. There are corporate vested interests which circulated an inadmissible and forged letter with malicious, baseless and derogatory content in November 2007. We had reached out to the media then and denied the same. We have complete faith in the investigative agencies. We hope that the forces working over time to harm us will be duly identified and punished. As responsible corporate neither we nor our promoter have ever indulged in any anti national activities.”

The affidavit also states that the tapes were not leaked by the Income Tax Department. The government has also said that while the leak should be investigated, it cannot stop the media from publishing transcripts of the conversations on the leaked tapes. 

Some of those conversations with politicians, industrialists and others have been leaked to the media and have been reported on widely. Rata Tata, who is one of Radia’s biggest clients and was on the leaked tapes, had last month filed a case against the government in the Supreme Court on the grounds that the leaked tapes encroached upon his right to privacy. Tata said that while he had no objection to any investigation by the government, his conversations with Radia that were made available to the public were of a personal nature and are irrelevant to charges like tax evasion and foreign exchange violations, which are among the reasons why Radia’s phone was allegedly tapped from 2008-2009.

The tapes are also being used by the CBI to investigate the details of the 2G scam. Believed to be India’s largest-ever scam, it saw 2G spectrum being given at what are described as inexplicably low prices by former Telecom Minister A Raja to companies who were later found to be ineligible by experts. CBI raided Niira Radia and former TRAI chief Pradeep Baijal in the on going investigation of 2G scam that rocked the nation. The Raja Radia saga led the team to DMK doors wherein high profile Kanjimori connections are getting investigated.

-BY J GOPIKRISHNAN for OPINION EXPRESS

Sarkozy bats for India’s civil nuclear programme, UNSC seat

Cappt Vinay Goyal report for OEMCL from New Delhi

French President Nicolas Sarkozy expressed his country’s full support to development of India’s civil nuclear programme but felt access to this industry was “restricted”. Sarkozy backed India’s entry into Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and its case for a permanent membership of the expanded United Nations Security Council, saying it was “unthinkable” to keep a country of over one billion out. French President visit may not have created buzz that US President Obama visit impacted India but in terms of pure government prospective, it was a great success.

“France is a friend of India. It will stand with it in its efforts in developing non polluting energy and nuclear industry,” the French President said addressing scientists at the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). “We need to put an end to nuclear isolation of India. It was injustice done to India challenging your right to access to civil nuclear energy,” India is now going to be a full fledged member of the multilateral groups over seeing non proliferation regimes, he said adding France would support India’s application for candidacy of NSG. Sarkozy noted with “delight” that a French company Areva would be setting up nuclear plant at Jaitapur in Maharashtra that would go on to produce 10,000 MWE of “non-polluting” energy.

He, however, noted there was certain “inconsistency” in India’s approach as while it wanted development of clean energy on one hand, at the same time “restricting access”. “We cannot force upon India obligations without giving it the means to meet the obligations,” he said. Speaking of France’s relationship with India, Sarkozy said that his country has been a good friend of India. “We don’t speak in two languages. We mean what we say.” Condemning the 26/11 attacks, he said any such strike on India was an attack on democracy and all democracies stand by India. “When India is attacked, it is democracy attacked,” he said.

He observed that terrorism emanating from Pakistan and Afghanistan is a “major source of instability” in the world. Talking about Afghanistan, he praised India’s role and said the world cannot afford to lose the war against Taliban.

“We cannot afford to allow Taliban to comeback. No one stand benefited if civil war raises its ugly head…we must succeed,” he said. Noting that one cannot stand still if India wants to move ahead in 21st century, he said, “India, Brazil, Germany, Japan, some representatives of Africa and Arab world must be in UN Security Council.”

Sarkozy showered praise on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh saying the Indian leader was obsessed with peace through development and eradication of poverty. “I have great admiration for Prime Minister Singh. I value his friendship. He is right in believing in peace and stability. India’s challenge is that if you succeed through peace, it will have a huge knock-out effect on the world,” he said.

India and France are united by common values and believe that international relations should not be governed by brutality or force and it should be based on dialogue and rule of law, Sarkozy said adding the relationship between the two countries should go much further.

Appreciating India’s growth, he said its voice has to be heard in the global level. “We need India to regulate the world monetary order. I believe Indian currency will be counted as one of major currencies,” he said.

On education sector, Sarkozy said he expected a three fold growth in the number of Indian students going to France. “We want to train young Indians in our universities and open our research facilities for them. I very much hope that the reverse will also be true,” he said.

France and India strengthen bi lateral, diplomatic relations

The Indian diplomatic establishment has ample reasons to feel happy and satisfied with French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s just concluded visit to India this week.

Sarkozy deftly used diplomatic symbolism by choosing India as his first foreign destination after France recently assumed the rotational Presidency of the G20 for one year. After a long hiatus, India is starting on January 1, 2011 a two year tenure as one of the 12 non permanent members of the United

Sarkozy said what the Indians wanted to hear by reiterating his support to India’s candidacy for permanent seat of the to be reformed UNSC something that Obama also did during his India visit last month. Sarkozy posed a rhetorical question: “It is not just an important matter for India but for the equilibrium of the world that after its two year term, are we going to ask India to simply stand down?”

Nations Security Council. This means that India can now expect to wield better clout at the G20 as well as the UNSC. France has been one of the staunchest India supporters in the world for quite some time as the two countries have entered into the 12th year of their strategic partnership.

Sarkozy said what the Indians wanted to hear by reiterating his support to India’s candidacy for permanent seat of the to be reformed UNSC something that Obama also did during his India visit last month. Sarkozy posed a rhetorical question: “It is not just an important matter for India but for the equilibrium of the world that after its two-year term, are we going to ask India to simply stand down?”

Sarkozy also enthralled the Indians by taking Pakistan to task on the terror front. He slammed Pakistan for allowing safe havens to terrorists in its tribal border areas. He reserved his fierce attack on Pakistan for the last leg of his trip in Mumbai on December 7, some three hours before the terror attack in Varanasi. He was unsparing, unambiguous and unrelenting when he remarked: “It is unacceptable for the world that terrorist acts should be masterminded and carried out by terrorist groups in Pakistan.” His advice to Pakistani authorities was to “step up their efforts and show that they are resolute in combating these criminals.” As for India, he pledged unlimited counter terrorist cooperation. Significantly, like Obama, Sarkozy did not visit Pakistan.

Though Sarkozy’s India visit was not historic, just as Obama’s trip wasn’t, such visits are essential for taking bilateral ties from strength to strength. Seven agreements were signed during Sarkozy’s visit, the most important of these a “general framework agreement” for constructing two nuclear reactors in Jaitapur (Maharashtra). Jaitapur is an ambitious project that will have six reactors which together will generate 10,000 MW power after completion in 2018. Generation of 10,000 MW from one single plant is indeed impressive considering that India currently produces just about 4000 MW, or less than three percent of total power generation.

India will have to tread carefully on the Jaitapur plant and will have to ensure that the cost of power per unit is not too high or else India will be breeding another Enron, this time again in Maharashtra. For the state of Maharashtra, Jaitapur means happy tidings as it will generate substantial employment for the locals. But it is the long-term risk that has to be guarded against because the Government of India will be spending a hefty $9.3 billion on the Jaitapur plant. Another important area of concern in context of the Jaitapur plant is that it is going to have European Pressurized Reactors (EPRs), the first of which is yet to be built, and therefore, the technology remains untested. The twin risks pricing of power produced which is yet to be worked out and the very high capital investment makes Jaitapur a high stakes gamble for the government.

Sarkozy pledged a more robust, intense and wide ranging cooperation with India, especially in such key areas as defense, space, nuclear energy, education and trade. It is a happy development for India, especially as it comes from a P5 power and the world’s fifth largest economy that is a powerhouse of advanced technology. The seven agreements that were signed during Sarkozy’s visit and the coming together of France and India in as diverse fields as satellite launches and construction of two nuclear reactors in Jaitapur signify that the Indo French strategic partnership is ready for the next phase of growth.

Another rosy picture for Indo French bilateral relations is the French announcement that its companies will invest $12 billion in India by 2012. Paris has dangled a carrot before New Delhi saying that the French FDI investments in India could be even dramatically higher if India opened up sectors like insurance and retail, particularly multi-brand retail. This is a contentious and sensitive political issue in India, considering the Left parties’ strident opposition.

India for its part has been treading cautiously on this issue. India maintains that the liberalization of insurance and retail sectors is “very much” on the government’s agenda but the policy has to be calibrated. “…(Relaxation of) FDI cap on insurance and multi-brand retail is very much on the agenda,” Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said in the presence of French Minister of Economy and Finance Christine Lagarde who was part of the delegation accompanying Sarkozy.

Sarkozy’s visit is a demonstration of India’s growing influence, which is projected to be the world’s third largest economy by 2030 after the U.S. and China. Sarkozy is the third P5 leader to have visited India this year after British Prime Minister David Cameron in July and U.S. President Barack Obama in November. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev are scheduled to visit later this month, the former from December 15 to 17, and the latter a week later. This means that before 2010 rings out India would have received all five heads of the permanent members of the UNSC.

Courtesy Diplomatic Courier Inputs and written by Rajeev Sharma