Rahul Gandhi is a known face of Indian politics. He is virtually heading India’s largest political outfit now. We are regularly debating Rahul effect in Indian polity on national and regional media. But he has never opened up his mind to people at large. Rahul’s politics has been stuck in this gear for a long time. He chose for himself the job of the Congress’ big picture man shortly after his electoral debut in 2004, working on long term strategic goals for the party, even as his mother, Congress president Sonia Gandhi, looked after its day-to-day affairs. The imminent change at the helm of the Congress promises the beginning of a cultural transformation in the Grand Old Party. Away from the public glare, Rahul Gandhi has set in motion a silent revolution in the Indian Youth Congress (IYC) and National Students Union of India (NSUI) by holding free and fair elections a first for any political party.

A few months ago, he surprised his party colleagues by suggesting elections to the Congress Working Committee (CWC). But entrenched interests and party chief Sonia Gandhi’s desire to make the CWC inclusive to balance regional, religious and caste demands stymied the proposal. The party’s youth and student wings, which had acquired the tag of notoriety during Sanjay Gandhi’s stewardship (a legacy they hadn’t been able to shake off), are being shaped into a decent and sensitive cadre. Youth Congress members, in fact, are said to be so disciplined consultant to its full-time leader. Will Rahul be able to swap his much vaunted grassroots level rejuvenation vision for a bit of medium term political pragmatism and the ability to manage crises on an almost daily basis?

Rahul has an experience of professional training in strategy consulting combined with a cautious, hesitant, and risk-averse temperament meant that he shunned short to medium term challenges, such as a stint in the Union government, for long term projects such as rejuvenation of the Congress’ youth and student wings, reviving the party in Uttar Pradesh were the Congress has been reduced to a fringe player, and brand-building aimed at projecting himself as a mascot of the poor. This orien where he launched the Congress’ 2012 Uttar Pradesh poll campaign, Rahul has shown the willingness to make the transition from the Congress’ political strats now that they are scared even of talking to the media to tom tom their achievements.

Rahul is rewriting the political lexicon of the Congress in his own way. In a revolutionary decision, he engaged the Foundation for Advanced Management of Elections (FAME), led by former election commissioners J. M. Lyngdoh and K. J. Rao, to conduct the polls in the youth and student wings. “Rahul has ensured criminals do not enter politics,” says Rao. Rahul has proved himself as the practitioner of a new brand of politics not foulmouthing opponents, ignoring jibes and barbs, and choosing a civilised engagement with detractors as well as his seniors in politics.

But on a broader platform, he is unwillingness to put himself in the line of fire. With the Congress confirming his ascent to a role of greater importance, Rahul’s approach to politics requires a serious change of course, and very quickly. After the election rally in Phulpurtation in his thinking showed up as a refusal to get into burning issues.

For instance, when he was asked whether he would personally intervene to resolve the Kashmir agitation of 2010 that witnessed unprecedented stone throwing protests in the valley, he responded, “My focus is on bringing youngsters into politics and I think that’s a very important thing for the future of this country. I genuinely don’t like to, sort of, move from one problem to another. I like to settle down, understand a problem in detail and then work on that problem. Solving Kashmir is not a part time problem. It is a full time problem.”

Rahul’s standard response to tricky questions whether it has been about inflation or political alliances had always been that his job is limited to being the Congress general secretary for the Indian Youth Congress and National Students’ Union of India. He then had the luxury of picking and choosing his canvas. It is a completely different picture now, to put it mildly. Other than electioneering in Uttar Pradesh and taking the Congress to a respectable tally in the upcoming assembly elections there, he has to pull the Congress and the United Progressive Alliance government, which it heads at the Center, out a series of crises.

To begin with, he has to find ways to arrest the sense of drift that seems to have become the UPA government’s leitmotif and salvage the remaining two and a half years of its term. He has to develop a working relationship with the Congress’ allies from the veteran M Karunanidhi to the tempestuous Mamata Banerjee. Then he has to battle the perception of the government having completely been overtaken by corruption scandals with neither the 2G scam nor Anna Hazare and his cohorts likely to fade from the scene quickly.

Then there are pressing issues such as the demand for a separate Telangana, which has been on the boil for far too long and is now waiting to explode. On the economic front, he has to find a way to put the reform process back on track if India has to make it through the looming global economic crisis. Whether it is in foreign direct investment in key sectors such as retail, disinvestment, or labour reforms, the government is waiting for the political go ahead. Then there is the Opposition, which will be ever on the lookout for any slip-up on his part to bolster their charge about him being naive and callow.

In the few instances that he has grappled with real-time problems in the past, rather than being sequestered in the comfort zone of long-term thinking, he has stumbled. His performance during the Anna Hazare agitation proved that he had a long way to go as far as reacting instinctively to tricky situations goes. His speech in Parliament, in which he propounded what he described as the “game changing” idea of making the Lokpal a constitutional body, did not help in diffusing the crisis at hand.

In fact, it made him sound completely off-key and unable to connect with the rising sentiment against corruption in urban India. He managed to bungle his Bhatta Parsaul initiative in Uttar Pradesh by insinuating murder of villagers in the backdrop of clashes between the state police and farmers over land acquisition a charge that could not be proved conclusively.

One big difference between his earlier position and the one he finds himself now in is his own willingness to play a larger role in the Congress’ affairs. Maybe he has no choice, given the reports about his mother’s failing health. He is taking on much wider responsibilities as far electioneering for the coming round of polls in Uttarakhand and Punjab go. He has taken on full responsibility of the Congress’ 2012 UP bid, which saw him launch the party’s campaign from his great grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru’s old constituency, leaving little doubt of the kind of role the Congress has in mind for him. Rahul requires experienced hands to guide him through the sharp bends that lie ahead. However, until now, his relationship with Congress elders has been indifferent at best and confrontational at worst.

He has not hidden his wider discomfort with the nature of politics in the Congress that revolves around entitlement and dynasty, despite his own acceptance of the dynastic mantle as the next Nehru Gandhi heir. Now, he may have no choice but to put his pet ideas of professionalizing and modernizing the Congress on the back-burner and turn to his mother’s advisors.

While his own team of non-political advisors such as Kanishka Singh and Sachin Rao are as untested as he is, there are some senior leaders such as Jairam Ramesh and Digvijay Singh who have worked with him on issues such as land acquisition and UP respectively. They may play a bigger part in the days to come. The most precious advice will, however, come from his mother and his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

Rahul looks set to continue with the left of centre economic position that has become his mother’s calling card, at least in the short term. In his speeches he has hinted that the Congress can fight the negative fall out of corruption and inflation in middle class India with UPA government’s welfare schemes such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, the proposed food security bill, and the Unique Identification number scheme which he sees as a key empowering contribution of the government towards improving the efficiency of the public delivery system.

The Rahul Gandhi era in the Congress promises to forge continuity with the present rather than usher in a new era in politics that his father’s initial years in power held promise of but never delivered. Ironically, Rahul has always maintained that one of the key factors that led him into politics was the urge to pick up from where his father left off. But the key question is that Congress is riding on the brand Manmohan right wing ideology with a great electorate success and Rahul is endorsing his policy on all major issues that contradicts his family Nehruvian policy. Similarly, his views on foreign policy, internal security, defense policy are ambiguous. Rahul Gandhi needs to clarify stand to the nation, earlier the better.

 – Prakhar Prakash Mishra

Once again, Anna and Lokpal bill – V.S. Sardesai

Since Anna Hazare’s current movement on corruption started from April 2011 to be precise, I was always baffled, confused and puzzled on two issues viz. Anna himself and Lokpal and I had expressed my doubts on every occasion I had written on the above subjects ; in the article ‘The Myth of Lokpal’, I have said that if one studies coolly the sequence of the events, one will find that the movement is nothing but a very well and carefully planned strategy to divert the attention of the people from the main issues that they are facing today and which the top icons want to avoid at any cost if possible because of the personal losses they would be suffering otherwise and that Anna even though may be the main actor in the drama may not be responsible in formulating the strategy though he may be a willing partner to the same; I had however decided to close the subject so far as I am concerned as the matter was discussed many times; but the recent disclosures on the subject made me change my decision.

Till he started the movement sometimes in April 2011, Anna was known mostly in Maharashtra as an honest and sincere social worker and leader and his field of work was mostly confined within Maharashtra. In his career until then, he has never entered into the national scene leave aside international. But as soon he started this movement against corruption by undertaking fast unto death he became not only a national leader but also got international fame. He was not only hailed as second or modern Gandhi by the media but also American government asked our government not to take any action against him. The media started giving him extraordinary exposure and publicity all 24×7 hours a day. In fact he had also started a new venture in 1991 called ‘Bhrastachar Virodhi Jan Andolan’ BVJN- (Public Movement against Corruption) and had undertaken fasts also; but at that time no such publicity was given to him. This was one thing which puzzled me. Why should a foreign government take so much interest in the internal matter and take cognizance of such events? In fact undertaking fasts is not a new thing for India and for Anna; and why should the media give so much extraordinary exposure and publicity to him only this time calling him second Gandhi? Is it an impartial reporting by the media or there is some purpose or design behind it and if so who is behind all this? If we consider the sequence of events, it will be found that virtually within one day he jumped from a regional social worker to national leader and got international fame; I don’t think there is anyone else who metamorphosed so fast from regional to national scene getting international fame. What is the secret?

Second thing which puzzled me is that even though Anna had started the new venture against corruption( BVJN ) in 1991 and the Lokpal Bill is pending in the Parliament since 1968 that is much earlier than the starting of his venture he never even for once has taken up the matter of Lokpal bill during the last twenty years even though he had undertaken fasts earlier against corruption and now only all of a sudden he not only has taken up the matter of Lokpal but agitated to get it passed immediately and goes on fast. If it was so urgent why did he not agitate to get it passed for all the twenty years since he started the new venture against corruption? And that is why I had always expressed my reservations and was skeptic about the real intentions and purposes of the Team Anna’s this movement and agitation against corruption. The very fact that he did not agitate for passing of the Lokpal Bill earlier for the last twenty years or so, even though he had started his movement against the corruption in 1991 i.e. after more than twenty years since the Lokpal Bill was first introduced in the Parliament, clearly shows that he never knew anything about lokpal or about the Lokpal Bill as a means to remove corruption till someone briefed him about it. The question therefore is when did he first came to know about Lokpal and how? Surely at that time there was no Team Anna. The question is why such an issue which was sidetracked for more than forty years became so important and urgent all of a sudden just like Anna Hazare becoming a national leader with international fame from a regional social worker virtually within a day? Is there any relation or connection between the two? I had given my interpretation in my earlier articles especially in “The Myth of Lokpal”, The Anna Phenomenon” etc, purely based on the sequence of events and logic. However the recent disclosures made by Raju Parulekar, ex blogger of Hazare and Shambhu Dutt, the 94 years Gandhian proved my fears to be correct.

Raju Parulekar has accused the Anna team calling them ‘the gang of four’ of using Hazare as demi God to further their interest and holding the government to ransom; so also he says that this gang of four has misguided the people to believe that Jan Lokpal Bill if passed will remove the corruption. I think they have misguided not only the people but also Anna in believing that Jan Lokpal Bill is the answer to corruption. In fact Parulekar’s clarifications have solved many of my doubts. Firstly it explains the mystery of the extraordinary publicity and exposure given to Anna by the media day and night making him second mahatma and a national leader within a day giving international fame or making him a demi-God in Parulekar’s words. Secondly how they chose Lokpal Bill as an issue for the agitation was solved by Shanbhu Dutt who was fasting for implementation of Lokpal Bill and who broke his fast at the request of Team Anna promising him to take up the matter themselves. Many questions however have remained unanswered. Firstly when did Anna came to know about Lokpal Bill and how or who briefed Anna about the Lokpal Bill and why? Secondly when did the team meet Anna for the first time and why? Why should the team take so much interest in removal of corruption only now? I hope we will get the answers to these questions also in the due course. In the mean time we can only guess.

I feel the answers lie and the mystery will be solved if we study the past events. The key lies in the Baba Ramdevji’s relentless efforts and movement of bringing back the illegal and black moneys deposited by some shameless Indians in foreign banks especially in Swiss banks and declaring it as national wealth and exposing the names of such traitors and the Swiss government’s declaration to disclose the names of such depositors if requested by the concerned government; I think this made such depositors panicky and they started thinking of finding a way out to scuffle the movement and divert the attention of the people from the main issues; and Anna’s fast and the Jan Lokpal Bill appears to be its result. How it happened, we can only guess. Either these depositors some of whom are very influential and holding topmost positions in the government and the ruling parties approached the team members who are NGO’s directly or through their foreign donors to implement a strategy formulated by them or requested them to formulate such strategy to find a way out. In either case it resulted in formulating a strategy to hijack the movement of Ramdevji and divert the attention of the masses from its main issues of bringing back the moneys from the foreign banks and disclosing the names of such depositors. For this, the team required two things; one, a person commanding respect and faith of the people and who can convince the people and whom the people will follow blindly and secondly an equally or more attractive and important issue as that is being preached by Ramdevji. They found the person in Anna Hazare; the difficulty however was that Anna was only a regional social worker; they got over the difficulty by giving him extraordinary publicity through media day and night making him a second Gandhi that Anna became a household name within a day. The difficulty of issue was also solved by adopting the other issue of Ramdevji viz. corruption which was preferable to disclosing the names of the foreign banks account holders; but the question was that corruption being an abstract issue ultimately would not stand against the concrete issue of bringing back the moneys from foreign banks. They wanted something to show that concrete steps are being immediately taken to end the corruption; they chose Lokpal Bill which was pending in Parliament for more than forty years. They amended it to fool the people that they are making it strong calling it as Jan Lokpal Bill. But to their dismay they found that one Shambhu Dutt, an old Gandhian of 94 years has already started a fast for its passing and implementation even though there was no publicity for him in the media. Not to be discouraged they approach Dutt requesting him to withdraw his fast, promising to get the bill passed and this is how the whole melodrama on corruption started.

They must have approached Hazare with their plan of agitating against corruption by getting the new Lokpal Bill as drafted by them which they called as Jan Lokpal Bill passed in Parliament and which, they must have told him, will remove corruption, may be without dis- closing their real intention or purpose. They must have also exploited his weakness for fame and Hazare must have agreed believing them and what they have said as corruption was also an issue which was dear to him without going through the bill as drafted by them or trying to find out whether what they say is true or not. He must also felt very happy as he would become a national leader from regional social worker and for being called second Gandhi.

But the difficulty is that every human being has got certain limitations and becomes successful only if he works within his limits and knowing his limitation; if he crosses his limits for any reason whatsoever he gets exposed; the same thing happened with Hazare; it seems that he is carried away by the propaganda made by his team making him in the words of Parulekar a demi God and started thinking high of himself without understanding his limitation with the result that he is slowly getting exposed. It now appears that Dutt is regretting for having handing over the baton to Anna team may be because he might be feeling lack of sincerity of purpose.

The way they made Anna a national leader and a Mahatma and giving publicity to him every day, in the same way they made the of Lokpal Bill which was pending in the Parliament for more than forty years and which was drafted on the basis of recommendation Santhanam Committee for administrative reforms for removing maladministration and mismanagement in the government, as if it was drafted for ending corruption in the society or at least reducing corruption to more than sixty per cent. They further dramatized the situation by drafting another bill, calling it as Jan Lokpal Bill in place of the one drafted by the government by giving the Lokpal draconian powers saying that the Lokpal as drafted by the government was toothless lion forgetting the fact that in India giving more powers can be a source of further corruption and in spite of making provisions, it will be difficult to remove a person once appointed especially to a high post. They ignored or rather overlooked the fact that the creation of Lokpal was recommended especially to prevent corruption by Legislators and ministers as it was difficult to prosecute them if they indulged in corruption and that Lokpal is only a prosecutor to prosecute a corrupt government servant or official specially when the act does not make any changes in the anti corruption laws under which such officials are ultimately to be prosecuted in a court of law and still they misguide the people saying that if Jan Lokpal Bill is passed , it will remove at least 60% of the corruption from the society as if corruption is there in the society only because there is no such Jan Lokpal Act passed.

Many a time people ask me when I ridicule the Jan Lokpal Bill, to suggest other ways if passing of Lokpal Bill is not the answer to Corruption. The fact is that corruption is a social problem and like other social problems such as farmers’ suicides or communal riots it cannot be solved only by making laws such as for example Prevention of Suicide Act or Communal Violence Act. It should be solved by studying the problem in depth, finding out the cause and the appropriate remedy. In case of corruption people would not like to pay bribe for the fun of it. They would like to get their work in time and not waste their time unnecessarily. And when it is not done they pay the bribe to get the work done in time. This can be avoided by fixing responsibility and accountability for not doing the work within a certain time. Of course there is Right of Information Act to find out discrimination. If this is done most of the complaints will be solved. I don’t think that any social worker will be so naïve as not to know this unless he is motivated by some other consideration. I think Anna has failed miserably to see the real intentions of his team or this gang of four and blindly following their advice, happy to see his name and photo everyday in the news papers and media; I only feel sorry for him.

 – OE News Bureau

The insurgencies that impacted the Indian landscape till early this decade were generally in isolation. Though, they like all insurgencies had external links, the internal linkages between them were at best tenuous. The Khalistan insurgency could be extinguished because of its unidimensional nature. It was confined to a specific geographic area and was supported by a specific group of people, easy to identify. Their cadre base was low.

The Kashmir militancy had not fully reared its head. The ISI patronage and support was well known. The pioneering ideologues of the movement were based abroad and did not belong to the segment of the community, which provided the foot soldiers. The objective of the insurgency was to carve out another theocratic state. The same can be said about insurgencies in the Northeast (NE). They too were supported by China, but in a manner that the deniability factor could be maintained. A separate country was their objective and not the destruction of the Indian state. The acts of terrorism in these insurgencies were to intimidate the local populace and preempt any support to the security forces.

Over the years, there is fusion of insurgency and terrorism. It first took the shape of proxy war with territorial objectives. Therefore, when the Indian Security establishment was faced with the Kargil misadventure, it initially appeared bewildered because it could not appreciate that a low intensity conflict could assume the shape of a conflict, which was constricted in limit and scope due to internal and external considerations and pressures. The overall military superiority that India enjoyed vis-a-vis Pakistan could not deter the latter.

Convergence of Terror

The proxy war waged by Pakistan and China are now converging on Delhi. This proxy war has various terrorist groups as its main tool. The main instruments of this war are none other but some Indians who are allured by ideology or money or both. They have been convinced that India in its present form is a demonic state and needs to be destroyed.

The Maoists, Pakistan based terrorist groups, and terrorist groups in Northeast, Punjab and J&K are now in collaboration. They have forged a nexus for training, procurement of arms, establishing external linkages and providing safe havens to each other. They are leveraging on one another’s strength and to reach their common objective is to destroy the Indian State.

When the Army Chief talks about a two front situation, he must realize that India is already facing a multi front situation in terms of proxy war being waged by China, Pakistan and other inimical powers. This multi front proxy war is rendering the country hollow from within. The inimical elements within the country are debilitating both our military resolve and our conventional capability.

The security of a country is the harmony between internal security and external security. Pakistan is collapsing because it always viewed internal security from the prism of external security. India on the other hand has been notorious in ignoring the external dimensions of internal security problems and treating them as that of law and order. If the Maoists, who are tramplingthe heart of India, and the Pak sponsored jihadis of Kashmir as well as terrorists groups in Punjab, and the China backed insurgent groups of Northeast, who have been trying to severe the head and limbs respectively, are now acting in concert, the internal security situation is grim.

A Super Power like the Soviet Union with its massive military capability, collapsed because it could not harmonize internal security with external security. India must not repeat the mistake. The Indian Army must revisit its threat perception and the very definition of ‘enemy’.

Joint terrorist training camps

The arrest of two Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) leaders of Manipur Arun Kumar Singh and Dalip Singh in October 2011 exposed the emerging links between the militant organizations in the NE, Kashmir, Let, and the Maoists. They revealed the ongoing effort on part of these groups to form a ‘Strategic United Front’ since they had the common objective to overthrow the Indian government. They reckon that it is only collectively that they would be able to take on the might of the Indian State. They also revealed the plans of setting up a ‘Joint Training Camp’ in Myanmar. The Times of India on 08 October 2011 quoted official sources “ISI and PLA are in touch and supply Maoists with arms. They are supposedly using China as the alternative route.”

The official sources also claim to have photographic evidence of Maoist cadres from six Indian states being trained by the PLA of Manipur, in Orissa and Jharkhand.This author has learnt through top intelligence sources that the Chinese have supplied a weapon manufacturing facility to the Kachin Insurgents in Myanmar. This facility is manufacturing replicas of AK-47, which is being supplied to all terrorist groups in India including the Maoists.

The latest recovery of explosives from a car on 12 October 2011 has also exposed the links between ISI, Lashkar- e-Toiba and Babbar Khalsa. Their objective was to target Delhi.

Taking into consideration, the seizures made by the security forces in the last few years, two important facts emerge – first, that Babbar Khalsa, the militant outfit, which carried out the killing of the Punjab Chief Minister Beant Singh has been under the revival mode, under the patronage of ISI, and second, that the organization has no dearth of sophisticated arms and explosives supplied by the ISI.

The revival of Babbar Khalsa and Khalistan insurgency received impetus after the creation of the Pakistan Gurudwara Prabhandhak Committee under the Chairmanship of Lt Gen Javed Nassir, former ISI chief. He is instrumental in forging the link between LeT and the Babbar Khalsa.

In October 2010, the Indian government had alleged that the Maoists of Nepal (PLA) had been imparting training to Indian Maoists on Nepal’s soil. Further, the Maoists were receiving training from LeT instructors in these camps. There was information of 234 Maoists training in Nepal under the supervision of Naxalite leaders like Vinod Gurung, Prakash Mehto and LeT members like Razak Khan and Latif Khan, who hail from Karachi.

In August 2010, Karnataka and Andhra Police, following four arrests in Hyderabad and two in Bangalore that the ISI through the ‘D-company’ had managed to establish links with the Maoists terrorists in the country. There were plans to invite Maoist leaders to Dubai to coordinate terrorist activities in India.

The spearheads of the modern terror network are people, who enjoy or have been conferred respectability by way of international awards or member- ship of NGOs ostensibly engaged in public cause. Some of these ideologues are active in forging links between various military groups. A noted Human Right activist, based on telephonic intercepts, has come under the scanner of intelligence agencies for trying to bring together various terrorist groups at the behest of Pakistan.

Even in the national capital the ideologues of the Maoists, Kashmiri and NE separatists have come together on a common platform on many occasions. Their agenda is common, i.e. to weaken the resolve of the Indian State to fight terrorism. It is in this backdrop that their diatribes against the state, the security forces, and the Armed Forces Special Power Act should be viewed. This Act, they feel is the most robust tool in preserving the unity of India.

The Maoist agenda

It is pertinent to note that when Anna’s agitation was at its peak, the eternal fast of Sharmila Irom of Manipur, was consistently highlighted. The focus was not she, but the removal of Armed Forces Special Power Act from Manipur. One of the active members during the agitation is known for his ULFA links. During the same period, the so called Lawyer civil activist and core member of the Team Anna, in one of the television channels, had categorically stated that the days of elected representatives are over, thereby implying that the India must jettison multiparty democracy.

He was only articulating the Maoist agenda. He also had then spoken that it is the Kashmiris who should decide whether they want to be part of India or not. Such was the hysteria during that period that these statements were lost in the din and did not receive adequate attention. The same gentleman has now advocated plebiscite in Kashmir and repealing of the Armed Forces Special Power Act.

One of the members of the Team of interlocutors on Kashmir has enjoyed the hospitality of Fai Foundation, headed by Syed Ghulam Nabi Fai the face of the Kashmir separatist cause in the United States. The Fai Foundation is funded by the ISI. It was a foregone conclusion that the team of interlocutors would recommend more autonomy for Kashmir. The timing of the submission of the report and utterances of the lawyer is not a mere coincidence.

The most formidable spearheads for convergence of terror in India are there in the media and amongst people who fancy to be called as intellectuals. The ‘terrorism economy’ is also formidable and has the ability to sustain some big media houses and other public platforms. They decry the Indian State, but ‘Misuse the Freedom of Speech’.

The entire region in the surround of India is in unprecedented geopolitical flux. The US-Pakistan strategic partnership, which ensured the survivability of the latter since its inception is now under tremendous strain, arguably on the verge of collapse. The internal problems of Pakistan seem to be intractable. The specter of the country’s split is haunting. Pakistan’s strategic maneuvre space is getting increasingly constricted. The conventional tools available in the hands of Pakistan in leadership to alter the dangerous geopolitical discourse are in disarray or blunted.

It is not India, but Pakistan’s machinations in Kashmir and Afghanistan,which has brought the country to this juncture. The emerging strategic partnership between India and the US, and India and Afghanistan has unnerved a tottering Pakistan. The only recourse available to Pakistan is to destabilize India by leveraging on all terrorist groups, i.e. the Maoists, who are active in one-third of India, and the terrorist groups in Kashmir, Punjab, Northeast, and Pak based terrorist groups and crime syndicate of the Dawood Ibrahim.

In this there is a congruency of interests between Pakistan and China. China too is not comfortable with the Indo-US strategic partnership and consequently the direction of the geopolitical discourse in the region. It has very high strategic stakes in Pakistan as well as in the Indian Ocean, particularly in the Bay of Bengal, where it is seeking presence by way of ports on Myanmar’s western coast for convenient supply of oil from Gulf for its energy needs. It is for this reason that China is engaged in thwarting India’s ‘Look East’ outreach by increasingly brazen sup- port to Northeast terrorist groups and the Maoists.

Economic consequences

The convergence of Pakistan and China backed terror and spearheaded by the ideologues has dangerous portends for India. While the aim of this terror is to paralyze India, its main focus is shifting to its heart, i.e. the National Capital. In all probability terrorist attacks in India are likely to become more vicious, more deadly, more wide- spread and more frequent. This proxy war has disastrous economic consequences. There is a thriving parallel terrorist economy. The Maoists are disrupting train services at will. Bandhs orchestrated by Maoists are having crippling effect on the economy and the livelihood of the people.

Corporate houses are paying ransom to the Maoists because the State cannot enforce its writ in large chunks of the hinterland. The Maoists menace is making thermal power plants starve for coal. India is becoming a dangerous place on this earth. Investors are being deterred. The Indian state machinery has become inured to the insecurity of the people. It probably feels that time itself will resolve the problem. The internal war against terror is being fought in a disjointed and half-hearted manner. The resolve mechanism and instruments to fight this convergence of terror is in disarray.

If this war is not won, India despite its conventional war making capability, will collapse. We are fighting the war with wrong tools, wrong mindset, and misplaced ideas of war, oscillating between law and order approach and internal security approach. While there is convergence of various terrorist groups, the Indian authorities have a compartmentalized approach on the specious argument of federalism. It’s a war and given its import and spread, the internal enemies can only be defeated, if the Indian Army is in the forefront.

  – RSN Singh (The writer is a former military intelligence officer who later served in the Research and Analysis Wing, or R&AW. The author of two books: Asian Strategic and Military Perspective and Military Factor in Pakistan, he is also Associate Editor, Indian Defence Review.)

BEIJING: The US move to create a naval base in northern Australia close to the South China Sea can actually mean more dollars in the Indian kitty, and put more strategic and business opportunities in New Delhi’s way, sources said. The first piece of evidence has come by way of Australia’s decision to selluranium to India.

The US move will provide a sense of protection to East Asian countries including Japan, who have serious conflicts with China but buy vast amounts of Chinese goods. The new found protection will encourage East Asia to reduce its dependence on China for goods and enhance economic ties with India, sources said.

“Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia will feel more secure. India and Indonesia can get together to control the Malacca Straits, which is the route though which 90% of Chinese goods to East Asia passes,” Subramanian Swamy, Janata Party president and a widely regarded China expert, told TNN.

There are signs that China is jittery about the US move to station 2,500 US marines in the Northern Territory of Australia within five years. Beijing on Thursday warned Australia it might get “caught in the crossfire” if it allows the US to exercise its naval might in the waters around it. Washington’s move has put the US navy within easy sailing reach of Vietnam, which is involved in a serious territorial dispute over oil rich islands in the South China Sea.

The move will also bring some relief to the ONGC, which is one of the foreign companies involved in exploring oil along with Vietnamese oil firms in the South China Sea. China has bitterly criticized India on the move and asked ONGC to withdraw.

When it comes to exporting to East Asia, India cannot replace China, which has a wide range of goods to offer, Uday Bhaskar, director of the National Maritime Foundation, said.

“But there is a strategic review of the bilateral relation with India by the US, EU and Japan, wherein Indian markets are being recognized as an important driver of trade in the region,” Bhaskar added.

India will need to retool its export basket if it seriously wishes to compete with China as a provider of goods in East Asia, he said.

The US move can also mean massive savings in investments being made by the Indian defense agencies on the India China border, Abhijit Iyer Mitra, research officer at the Institute of Conflict Studies in New Delhi, said.

“This is God sent. The more US ramps up its military presence in South China Sea, the more it will divert Beijing’s attention from India,” he said.

“It can actually mean a big saving on investments being made on the China border. But I doubt if our defense establishment would make the best of the opportunity. They are too attached to big budget,” he said.

 – OE News Bureau

Coalgate investigations, FDI in retail, coordination within UPA with allies, internal security and several key policy matters has seen UPA trebling without any leadership. The highest indicator of the multi layer power centre was exposed in the passing and sudden withdrawal of ordinance related to keeping criminals out of active politics.

The cabinet headed by Dr Manmohan unanimously passed ordinance extending certain concessions to tainted politicians. It was forwarded to President of approval though he refused to sign. This is the start of a new story wherein Congress VP Rahul Gandhi steps in and tore apart the credibility of the government by publicly stating that this ordinance is useless, to be thrown in dustbin, The nation has witnessed tremendous turbulence due to multi layer power system in the government that lacks accountability with one person. Surely, the PM is the man responsible to the public at large but the world’s largest democracy has seen a rare multi level amalgamation of power to run a complex country.

UPA’s multiple dysfunctions created the perfect FDI storm, the government’s decision to suspend opening up of India’s retail sector to foreign investors, 12 days after it was announced with much fanfare, marks a new nadir in the fortunes of the second UPA government. Optimists, and there a few, think retail FDI could play out like the nuclear deal, where it was initially put on hold after the Left objected, and later revived.

But the second avatar of the UPA appears to be difficult from the previous one, a number of ministers in the current government said, with key play- ers often working at cross purposes. The ministers, as well as several politicians, both belonging to the Congress and the government’s allies, largely spoke on condition of anonymity. The fiasco has highlighted what was till recently only whispered about infighting in the cabinet and a rapid diminution in the authority of the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh. Barely 24 hours after the cabinet meeting, for instance, senior ministers from the ruling and allied parties were expressing their reservation about the move, some openly. It soon became well known, for instance, that defense minister AK Antony and rural development minister Jairam Ramesh were opposed, though neither have spoken in public.

But the discord, according to the ministers and a number of political leaders, is not restricted to the cabinet. According to a number of people familiar with the matter, equations between Sonia Gandhi, the Congress President, and the man she appointed as Prime Minister more than nine years ago, is no longer what it used to be. “The Congress is like a three-legged animal, with each being pulled in different directions. So, if there is one section that is toeing Mrs Gandhi’s line, there is another that appears to have Rahul Gandhi’s mandate. And a handful of people supporting the PM,” a cabinet minister said.

Sonia Gandhi’s illness has been a complicating factor. “Who is in charge here? Sonia Gandhi is distracted with her illness and she is no longer as hands on as she was during UPA 1. Rahul Gandhiis a landlord in absentia

his interventions are few and far between and he keeps himself away from the government mostly. That leaves the Prime Minister whom his own party members don’t take too seriously. His authority is constantly challenged ironically not as much by the allies but by Congress cabinet ministers. And it doesn’t help when the PMO is perceived to be playing games with various ministers,” another senior UPA minister says.

“This term of the UPA has killed the spirit of doing business in India,” a top industrialist. “It’s not just an activist judiciary, out-of-control law enforcement agencies wherein India’s premium business houses were targeted. Recent CBI FIR against Birla group and roll back reflects a poor state of governance in the country. The issues such as inflation, internal law & order situation etc have dampen the spirits of business world. Who can do business with interest rates at 16%? This government has some outstanding, bright individuals but nobody is willing to do anything,” the industrialist says.

The division in the cabinet has not helped. “The FDI in retail is a classic example of how the PM was let down by his own cabinet. Which of the powerful ministers came out in strong support? Not because in principal they didn’t support it but because they are upset and disillusioned by the PM,” says a minister belonging to a party allied with the Congress.

According to this person, Chidambaram feels let down by the PM as he feels the Prime Minister’s Office has not been particularly helpful at a time when he is under relentless attack from Subramaniam Swamy, the maverick politician who has petitioned the courts seeking resignation of home minister, who was finance minister in 2008 when a set of controversial telecom licences were issued by A Raja, the former telecom minister. A controversial note from the finance ministry, which appeared to partly blame Chidambaram for failing to prevent the scam, has not helped matters.

One cabinet minister also points out that Kapil Sibal, the telecom and HRD minister, who till a few months ago did a fair amount of fire fighting for the government, kept mostly silent during the FDI debate as he feels he went out on a limb opposing the popular anti-corruption campaigner Anna Hazare with little backing from the party.

Government officials say an attempt was made by the Congress high command to bring in order by appointing Pulok Chatterji as the PM’s principal sec- retary. Chatterji comes with the formidable reputation of being a professional, low profile and no- nonsense bureaucrat. He has an onerous task at hand, say people in the know, with the relation- ships between some of the most powerful cabinet ministers at an all-time low.

Landmark legislation and reforms initiated by the UPA have had one characteristic. With the important exception of the nuclear deal legislation such as NREGA which provides 100 days of guaranteed employment – and the Food Security Bill have been personally been driven by Sonia Gandhi. The government’s role has been to implement the party’s wishes.

In case of multi-brand retail it was different, with the Prime Minister driving the initiative. The government had to sell this idea to the party once the core committee took a view. Many blame industry minister Anand Sharma for the fiasco. A Congress party member says Sharma was the wrong choice to hard sell the proposal. “First, he didn’t even bother to sell the idea to his party men, forget about allies. “This government is being run by Rajya Sabha people some who haven’t even been municipal com- missioners,” says a Congress leader sarcastically. The criticism would apply to the Prime Minister, who is a Rajya Shabha member.

Several Congress ministers say it was a classic case of bad presentation. “The policy should have been pitched as a special power that states were going to be given to avail foreign investment in infrastructure and retail if it so desired. As India gradually inches for the General Elections 2014 with massive rallies and election fever has already set in the country, the stakes are higher than ever. It is do or die battle of Narender Modi led BJP minus NDA to secure 200+ Lok Sabha seats in order to attract allies to form the government. It is true that Narender Modi is the most popular leader of the country today but the limitation of BJP is that it will con- test national elections in 2/3 of India wherein it is having absolutely no presence in 1/3 of India hence success ration required to translate 2/3 seats is extremely high, it makes Narender Modi task very difficult. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi must have to demonstrate extreme control over the party to settle himself as undisputed leader. He must deliver goods by words and actions. Indian loves authoritative leadership so Rahul Gandhi has limited options. He will be fighting against history of ten years of anti incumbency of UPA government. There is a generation shift within Congress leadership so the experience leaders may feel ignored by the young brigade; the balancing may require huge skills for Rahul Gandhi. Finally, he must take control of the party and government decisively to disseminate message to the country that he is in complete control of entire governance and he is the BOSS. It will give Congress cadre a clear line of control and it will offer the country a clear option to vote or not to vote to Rahul Gandhi led Congress party for UPA III.

– OE News Bureau

As President Barack Obama’s budget aimed at rebuilding the country’s economy, emerging ‘from the worst recession in generations’, looks at India as ‘one of the most important and promising emerging markets in the world’.

Obama’s proposed $3.7 trillion spending plan for 2011 hopes to ‘win the future by out-innovating, out-educating, and out-building our global competitors and creating the jobs and industries of tomorrow’, according to the White House.

‘India is one of the most important and promising emerging markets in the world, and represents a tremendous opportunity for US firms to expand their output of goods and services,’ the budget proposal presented Monday said.

‘On the margins of the president’s trip to India in November, trade transactions were announced or showcased exceeding $14.9 billion in total value with $9.5 billion in US export content and that would support an estimated 53,670 jobs,’ the White House noted.

These cross border collaborations, both public and private, underpin the expanding US-India strategic partnership, contributing to economic growth and development in both countries, it said. Notable examples include the sale of commercial and military air- craft, gas and steam turbines and precision measurements instrumentation. The budget proposals said the emergence of a global market place that includes the growing economies of China, India and other developing counties creates an opportunity for America to export US goods and services to new customers.

‘With 95 percent of the world’s customers as well as the globe’s fastest growing markets beyond our borders, we must compete aggressively to spur economic growth and job creation,’ the budget said. Obama’s third annual budget says that it can reduce projected deficits by $1.1 trillion over the next decade, enough to stabilise the nation’s fiscal health and buy time to address its longererm problems, the New York Times said citing a senior administration official.

Two-thirds of the reductions that Obama claims are from cuts in spending, including in many domestic programmes that he supports.Among the reductions for just the next fiscal year, 2012, which starts Oct 1, are more than $1 billion from airport grants and nearly $1 billion from grants to states for water treatment plants and similar projects. Public health and forestry programmes would also be cut. With Republicans in charge of the House, Obama’s budget is more a statement of his priorities and philosophy than an actual template for federal spending and tax policy, the Times noted.

 – Arun Kumar  (Arun Kumar can be contacted at arun.kumar@ians.in)

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has finally broken his silence to offer his defense in the 2G spectrum scam, which is fast paralyzing the government. He has essentially blamed former telecom minister A Raja and coalition pressures for all the wrongdoings and promised that the guilty will be punished irrespective of rank or influence.

While admitting that several complaints were made to him about Raja’s policies, the PM said he had no reason to believe anything seriously wrong had been done. He then admitted that he could not make up his mind that something serious was wrong, which later prevented him from intervening when Raja made a comeback as telecom minister in UPA II.

While the PM says he went along with Raja’s claims of no auctions based on TRAI recommendations, approval of the Telecom Commission and concurrence by the finance ministry, it is clear that all of these could easily have been checked by the PMO and corrections made on the spot. Clearly, that did not happen.

The problem is not so much about Raja’s claims, which multiple investigations have proved false, but about the detailed information given by him to the PM, on which the PM failed to act, which in turn led to the perpetration of the scam in 2008.

The PM has made no attempt to deny that he was in the know. Arun Shourie recently made startling revelations that he had given the PM details of the scam beneficiaries and paper trail in August-September 2009, but did not receive a response from either the PM or his office. Shourie also alleged that the same whistle blower was introduced to the CBI, who engaged him, but refused to act.

The CBI FIR was filed immediately after this in October 2009, but the CBI’s affidavit in the Supreme Court shows that it did very little till the SC started hearing Prashant Bhushan’s PIL on the 2G scam in October 2010. This inaction acquires new color in the context of Shourie’s allegations, considering that the CBI is accountable to the PM.

By now, various reports/documents suggest that the PM knew of Raja’s intent and modus operandi well before 2G licenses were finally awarded on January 10, 2010. So why did he fail to act? The PM claims it’s on account of coalition pressures. Yet, the same PM refused to bow to coalition pressure from the Left par- ties during the Indo-US nuclear deal, displaying a will of steel by staking the future of the government for what he considered was good for India.

This is valuable evidence that the PM can resist pressure when he wants to. Another explanation offered is that the PM is simply too busy to address all correspondence in minute detail. Yet in is simply too busy to address all correspondence in minute detail. Yet in Raja’s case, the PM found time to exchange five letters directly, including one in which the PM detailed the alternatives that Raja could consider, so the second theory doesn’t stick either.

How do the facts stack up? Is the PM indeed culpable in the Rs 1.76 lakh crore 2G spectrum scam? Let’s first test Singh’s acknowledged strengths: strong personal financial integrity and a mature handle on economics and public policy. While the worms just don’t stop tumbling out from the 2G scam investigations, so far there is no incriminating financial evidence linking Singh to the scam.

Moreover, the PM, in his two-page letter of November 2, 2007 to Raja, states in Section 4 of its annexure, “In order that spectrum use efficiency gets directly linked with the correct pricing of spectrum, consider (i) introduction of a trans- parent methodology of auction, wherever legally and technically feasible, and (ii) revision of entry fee which is currently bench marked on old spectrum auction figures.”

In effect, the PM favored auctions in spite of Raja’s claims that TRAI had not recommended auctions, and was also careful to protect exchequer revenues by suggesting “revision of entry fee” as a prudent alternative. Responding within hours on the same day, a defiant minister Raja wrote: “It will be unfair, discriminatory, arbitrary and capricious to auction spectrum to new applicants as it will not give them level playing field.” Singh scores on economics and public policy. Clearly, if Singh had enforced his advice, there would have been no 2G scam.

The PM’s culpability comes into question only if it can be established that Raja acted after informing the PM and without misleading him in any way. For this we need to examine the events leading to Raja’s resignation and arrest.

The five specific allegations against Raja are:

1. He claimed to implement TRAI’s recommendations regarding “no cap” on the number of operators, but in fact, violated this by capping the number of licenses processed at 122 out of 575 applicants. In 2009, the courts observed that Raja had acted contrary to this claim.

2. He defied the law minister to circumvent scrutiny by an eGoM. This violates governments’ transaction of business rules under Article 77 of the Constitution.

3. He followed a bespoke first come first served (FCFS) process over transparent auctions even though the demand far out- weighed supply. This violates provisions of the Constitution, Article 14, 19 (i) (g) and 21.

4. He illegally and arbitrarily advanced the cut-off date from October 1, 2007 to September 25, 2007, a move that favored handpicked companies. The courts have declared this action illegal.

5. Finally, he manipulated the FCFS process by changing the established priority based on “date of application” to a new arbitrary criteria of “compliance with LoI” which meant “first to pay gets spectrum”. The CAG’s report shows that insider information pay gets spectrum”. The CAG’s report shows that insider information coupled with these tailor made norms, allowed a few companies to fraudulently access spectrum by jumping the queue.

The fact that the PM was well apprised of these impending policy violations is evident from a closer look at the correspondence between them. Five letters were exchanged between Raja and the PM directly – three on one day (November 2, 2007), followed by Raja’s last letter on December 26, 2007 and the PM’s two-line acknowledgment on January 3, 2008 exactly one week before the infamous award of 2G licenses on January 10, 2010.

Of the five listed wrongdoings which were later found either illegal or in violation of administrative procedure/rules, Raja informed the PM about the first four through his two letters D.O. No. 20-100/2007-AS.I of November 2, 2007 written two months before the scam broke out.

The last, regarding the change of the FCFS definition was conveyed to the PM on December 26, 2007, through a detailed six-page letter including annexure, DO No. 260/M(C&IT)/VIP/2007 – two weeks before the spectrum scam broke out.

This shows that every single action by Raja, except ones under scrutiny under the Prevention of Corruption Act, were known to the PM in detail and well ahead of Raja’s actions. It is equally clear from the turn of events: CBI’s FIR of October 21, 2009, CAG Report of November 2010 and the Shivraj Patil one man committee report of January 31, 2011, that whatever Raja told the PM, he followed to the letter. The DoT corroborates this in its affidavit of November 11, 2010 in the Supreme Court which, citing Raja’s letter of November 2, 2007 and December 26, 2007 admits, “Not only was there no difference of opinion with the Honorable PM, his office was duly kept informed of all decisions”.

In conclusion, and based on the facts, it is clear that all allegations against Raja of wrongdoing and illegal acts which have led to the loss of Rs 1.76 lakh crore as reported by the CAG and eventually, his resignation and arrest, were known, in detail and in advance, by the PM.

In summary, the PM offered Raja sound advice on public policy that was anchored in strong economic principles, but consistently failed to reign in a minister turned rogue since 2007, which makes allegations of his culpability in the 2G spectrum scam difficult to dislodge. It is these serious lapses that the PM must defend.

And formation of JPC by the government has started on the bitter note with ugly exchange of words on the floor of house hence the proceedings subsequent are expected to raise political temperature to a new high. But the million dollar question for us remains as to whether we can tame corruption and clean up the mess to avoid huge embarrassment that country is facing due to series of scams? Though time is limited for everyone.

 – Prashant Tewari (Editor in Chief, OE)

Is Varun BJP’s New Hindutva hero?

Bharatiya Janata Partyon Monday rejected the Election Commission’s advice to it not to nominate Varun Gandhi as candidate in the Lok Sabha elections and declared that he would be the party candidate in Pilibhit. “He (Varun) is our candidate. We have turned down the advice (by the EC) be- cause it is does not not have the right to give such an advise,” party spokesman Balbir Punj told media persons after meeting Varun. He said he was speaking as the authorized spokesman of the party and this was the view of the party leaders after consultations among them.

In an unprecedented action, the Election Commission on Sunday night asked the BJP not to nominate Varun as its candidate in the Lok Sabha elections after holding him guilty of making communal speeches. Varun Gandhi does not deserve to be a candidate at the present general elections?’ the three-member Commission advised the BJP. Punj said in a democracy, it was the right of political parties to decide on who their candidates will be and it was not for the Commission to say that.

The BJP would not accept the Election Commission’s advice, he said adding it was the collective decision of the party leaders. Punj also questioned the Election Commission’s authority to advice against nominating Varun. “The entire episode smacks of prejudice and bias,” he said. “If the Election Commission is so con cerned, then it should be forthright in giving the same suggestion in the case of Sanjay Dutt, M K Subba, Shibu Soren, Sajjan Kumar and Jagdish Tytler,” he said.

The BJP spokesperson also sought to question the competency of the Commission in deciding the veracity of the compact disc containing anti-Muslim speeches allegedly made by Varun. “Where is the original CD? The Election Commission has no right to give such ad- vice. It should refer the matter to an independent investigation agency,” Punj said.

Whether or not Varun will be able to fight the elections will depend on the judiciary. The hate speech that has given rise to this controversy in the India’s electoral battle, was allegedly delivered during rallies in Pilibhit constituency of Uttar Pradesh. While cousins Priyanka and Rahul have joined the issue, criticizing the youngest Gandhi for his speech, Varun says that the CD was doctored.

“If you ask me, I would say yes, it was a rousing speech, a strong speech. May be I should not have been so aggressive; may be, I should not have used the words which I did. However, certain expressions attributed to me have been distorted from what I spoke and one of the two CDs containing my speech has been doctored,” he said

“What people should realize is that I was speaking at a village where four girls had been raped. When I spoke, I wanted to instill confidence among victims, I wanted to offer hope to the hopeless. I don’t care about a warrant (for arrest) but what bothers me is that I should not be hurting anyone and, believe me, my intent was not to hurt anybody,” Varun said.  “You must appreciate the fact that in my area, there has been persecution of Hindus in a particular belt. There have been 11 cases of rape in the last one year. People have been thrashed and threatened. There has been communal tension in this belt for one year. While I don’t want to cement it (tension), I cannot wish it away either.”

“My mother (Menaka Gandhi) has been elected to Lok Sabha from Pilibhit in seven consecutive elections, but the constituency has never witnessed a communal riot, not even in the Ram Janmabhoomi movement phase. But during the last one year, things have been different. Many of our people, including former minister Ram Saran Verma, have been arrested under the National Security Act,” he said.

– OE News Bureau

Just when oil markets appeared to be calming, crude oil prices surged as the potential for more oil shipment disruptions spread across the Middle East and North Africa.With Libya’s oil exports almost entirely halted for the last several days, renewed unrest in Oman, Iran and Iraq rattled oil traders. An interruption of shipments from any of those countries would further tighten oil supplies, even as Saudi Arabia has rushed to fill the vacuum of Libyan supplies by pumping more oil from its fields.

The worries about the oil supply rippled through other markets, with stock markets turning lower on concerns that the higher cost of energy would slow economic recovery. Gold prices also surged on the latest reports, and indexes on Wall Street declined sharply, with the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 1.3 percent. The Saudi Arabian benchmark stock index fell 6.8 percent.In the latest sign that the political contagion was spreading, demonstrators in Oman on Tuesday tried to block a major road leading to the industrial port town of Sohar. Protesters in recent days have set fire to at least one police station and two government office buildings in the normally stable Persian Gulf country, which is ruled by a family dynasty and is the largest non OPEC oil producer in the Middle East.”To have protests in Oman, which had previously been seen as a sleepy gulf kingdom, heightens concerns that nowhere is immune from the contagion affects,” said Helima L. Croft, a director and senior geopolitical analyst at Barclays Capital. “Every day we seem to have a new country with a new problem.”

Oman produces 860,000 barrels of oil daily, almost 1 percent of world supplies, and its production has been rising in recent years with investments from Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Repsol and other international companies. Its importance is magnified by the fact that its crude is of such quality that it can be blended by most refineries around the world, although most of its exports now go to China and Japan. Oman straddles the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route through which 40 percent of the world’s oil tanker traffic crosses. On the other side of the strait lies Iran, another major producer, where there were reports on Tuesday that security forces had used tear gas to disperse protesters in Tehran. Iran, with approximately 10 per- cent of the world’s oil reserves, exports about 3.7 million barrels a day.

The price of light sweet crude rose to $99.63 a barrel while Brent crude rose 3.24 percent to $115.42. Oil jumped above $100 a barrel in after-hours trading in New York. The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline rose by nearly a penny on Tuesday to just over $3.37, which is 20 cents higher than a week ago.

In testimony on Capitol Hill, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said that it would take a sustained increase in oil prices to push up consumer inflation significantly and threaten the economy. “Currently the cost pressures from higher commodity prices are being offset by the stability in unit labor costs,” he added.The rising tensions across the region sent the Saudi Arabian stock market into a tailspin, with Saudi shares suffering the biggest daily decline in more than two years despite rising oil prices. The Saudi index fell 6.8 percent, to its lowest close since July 2009.

Refiners around the world have been hoping that Iraq, as violence ebbed, would again become a major oil producer, with production stabilising at 2.3 million barrels a day. But over the weekend rebels bombed the country’s largest refinery, reducing the refinery’s capacity to refine petroleum products by 75,000 barrels a day. The attack came less than three weeks after a terrorist attack on a pipeline leading to a second refinery north of Baghdad.Greg Priddy, an oil analyst at the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said it was “highly unlikely” that output in another major producer in the region would be shut off. But he said that markets were jittery because “if the Saudis are going to make up for the shortfall in Libya, their spare capacity is thinner.”

He added, “Another major country going out completely would use most of their spare capacity, and that is really what the market is worried about.”

Saudi Arabia has a total production capacity of 12.5 million barrels a day, and currently produces nine million barrels after increasing its output by several hundred thousand since the beginning of the year. Saudi officials say they are ready to pump what it takes to fill any supply gap, but much of its 3.5 million barrel excess capacity contains sour crudes that do not easily replace the Libyan sweet crude European refineries in particular desire to produce diesel. In Libya, major oil operations in the eastern part of the country remained under the control of rebel forces. While foreign operators withdrew most of their foreign workers, local Libyan employees can still produce some crude. Oil experts say at least one million of the country’s 1.6 million barrels a day of production has been shut down.

Little if any oil can be shipped out of Libya because most ports were closed. Meanwhile, storage tanks were filling up rapidly. Oil traders said one major oil company cargo ship was supposed to berth this week, but no one was at the port to deliver an oil shipment, and shipping companies were reluctant to send ships into the Libyan ports.

Most fields in Libya are operated by a combination of the National Oil Company, which owns 50 percent of the fields, and international consortium, which share the other half.

The Arabian Gulf Oil Company, the largest subsidiary of the Libya National Oil Corporation, claims it had broken off from its mother company. It said it would honor its contracts but would divert the funds to the opposition, not to Tripoli.Arabian Gulf’s Hamada field had been shut, and output at Nafoora, Sarir and Misla had dropped to under half of maxi- mum capacity.The company was still exporting crude at the Tobruk terminal, according to a re- port by PFC Energy, a consulting firm, but Arabian Gulf has stated that with only sporadic loading operations, it could reach its maximum storage capacity within two weeks, even with the drastically reduced production levels.Arabian Gulf officials “have claimed that the company’s export revenues will no longer be controlled by its parent company,” PFC Energy said in the report, “but have not been able to confirm how those revenues would be managed by the subsidiary or potentially channelled to Libya’s opposition.”Eni, the Italian oil giant and largest foreign operator in Libya, evacuated most of its employees and their families last week. The company’s fields were still producing 120,000 barrels a day of oil and natural gas, about half their capacity before the re- volt began. The company declined to say which fields it had shut down and which were still in operation, citing safety concerns. Eni still has 21 Italian employees in Libya, a spokesman said.

(Courtesy: Clifford Krauss & Jad Mouawad, The New York Times..)

Indian Jew Noshir Gowadia is a sacrificial lamb like Bernie Maddoff whom the Israeli’s sacrificed by saying beat this guy he stole $75 billion where as the fact is they stole $4 trillion from US Banking system. With total control on US Congress, Justice system, Media, Banking & big Businesses Israelis have been manipulating every thing including their sales of Military Technology to China for last 5 decades.

Here are few statements from various news papers. Please feel free to send it to Israeli slaves US Congress posing as friend of India supplying free arms to Pakistan so that Israeli’s can sell their junk at inflated prices by bribing main political parties of India namely Zionist Christian Sonia’s Congress & Zionised BJP. At the same time their Israeli Masters are selling most sophisticated Military Technology after stealing from America to China another hostile neighbor of India.

“Every time we discover a new program in the Third World arms proliferation game, we always find that the Israelis have got some hand in it,” says a senior analyst with the U.S. State Department’s Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, who spoke to the Washington Report on condition of anonymity. “Israeli scientists helping with a Third World arms program [are] about as inevitable as ants at a picnic.”

Larry M. Wortzel, a former U.S. military attache in Beijing and now an analyst at the Heritage Foundation, said the Israel China arms channel has flowed for more than 50 years. “It grew and grew, and the United States just winked at a number of serious transfers,” he said.

CIA Director R. James Woolsey in a written testimony to US Senate: “We believe the Chinese seek from Israel advanced military technologies that the U.S. and Western firms are unwilling to provide,” Woolsey also informed the Senate that Israel has been selling military technology to China for over a decade, and that the sales may amount to “several billion dollars.”

Israeli Defense Ministry Director David Ivry: Israel has been selling arms to China but refused to describe the arms sold or their value.Early in 1992, Robert Gates now Defense Secretary, then director of the CIA, charged that China had illegally obtained ballistic missile secrets from the American-made ”Patriot” ground-to-air missile system, which figured prominently in defending both Israel and Saudi Arabia during the Gulf war. While Patriot missiles deployed to Saudi Arabia had U.S. crews, however, some of the Patriots in Israel were manned by Israeli crews. Gates said Israel was suspected of sup- plying China with these secrets, thereby making public suspicions that had circulated within the Pentagon since allegations of technology theft against Israel were formally raised immediately after the end of the Gulf war.

Not long after the Patriot brouhaha subsided, Israel again was denying charges that it illegally exported U.S. technology to the communist regime in Beijing. This time, the suspicions revolved around the ill-fated Lavi fighter. Israel spent more than $1 billion in U.S. aid on the aircraft, which was based on the U.S. F-16 Falcon. After Israel ditched the pro-gram at Washington´s insistence, intelligence reports said Tel Aviv was selling the F-16 avionics technology to China for in- corporation into that country´s new F10 ground attack fighter.

The Cox report confirmed the suspicion in 1999, stating, “Significant transfers of U.S. military technology have also taken place in the mid-1990s through the reexport by Israel of advanced technology transferred to it by the United States, including avionics and missile guidance useful for the PLA´s F-10 fighter.”

South Africa acknowledged that, in the late 1970s, it created six nuclear bombs with the technical assistance of Israel. Further it said they developed an inter- mediate-range ballistic missile called the “Jericho II.” Which can deliver a nuclear, biological or chemical warhead more than 900 miles away was developed with Israeli help.

So indictment and sentencing of Indian American JEW Noshir Gowadia for allegedly sending military secrets to China, Germany, Israel and Switzerland is a big joke.

 – Dev Makkar

During the days of struggle for independence, Pundit Jawaharlal Nehru was set in the hear t of ever y Indian. However after he took over the administration, it was found that he was more of a dreamer than a realist. His concept of a socialistic pattern of society was utopian, and the realm of control and regulations that he introduced stifled the economic growth of the country. The situation got worse when Indira Gandhi and her stooges star ted using the controls for personal ends. The corruption that she gave vent to has been continually growing like cancer. It has crossed all bound sand we are now witnessing the politicians unashamedly accumulating property by indulging in large scale corruption.

But corruption is not the only ailment of the country. The policy initiated by Nehru and perpetuated by the followers has given rise to various other ills that have been deeply affecting the social fabric. While pondering over the conditions prevailing at present I feel that India has been rushing towards catastrophe in economic, political and social spheres. Unless the engine is put in reverse gear, we are going to face the devastation. I am therefore putting below some suggestions that can help in preventing it.

Idea of india how to make it click

1. Introduce Presidential system of governance

Our Parliamentary system of government was adopted because of our association with the British rule. It was, however,overlooked that the system needs vigilant public opinion and the presence of two strong parties that can take over the administration. These conditions did not exist in India.

The problems arising from the absence of two capable parties did not come to the notice so long as there was one party strong enough to continue at the helm. The weakness of the system became evident after the fall of congress party from the hegemony. Not only did that lead to unstable administrations, it also led to mismanagement and gave rise to large scale corruption. Maintaining majority at any cost has turned out to be the main job of the Prime Minister and Chief Ministers. Whenever they find that the majority is at stake, they have to go in for purchasing the required number of heads. Everyone knows the level of corruption indulged during the vote of confidence session of parliament last year.

Corruption is a cancer that cannot be rooted out so long as there are chances for getting corrupted. The only way to control it is to reduce the chances. Our Parliamentary system has been conducive to its growth. In order to avoid it we need to adopt the Presidential system under which the administration can be carried on by the President at the Center and Governors at the State levels elected to govern for five years irrespective of the majority. That would avert this constant struggle to maintain and pay for a majority headcount. Moreover, the scramble that we witness for getting elected as legislators prevails, because every legislator aspires to get a ministerial berth and use it for personal gain. Under the Presidential system legislators would be ineligible to hold administrative positions. That will put an end to the undue craze for becoming a legislator. Only those who are really interested in working as legislators would then contest the election. The temptation for becoming a legislator would thus go down and that will curtail the chances for indulging in corruption.

2. Scrap controls and regulations

Another aspect that gives rise to corruption is the regime of controls and regulations. Influenced by the Soviet model, Nehru was enthused to lead the country towards economic development by wielding State authority. He ignored the fact that Soviet Union had failed to achieve any measurable degree of economic growth even while exercising total authority over the life of people. In a bid to metamorphose the country Nehru created a maze of controls regulating every aspect of life. He failed to see that Government machinery is ill suited to exercise the controls in public interest. The result is the large-scale corruption prevailing in implementing the controls.

 With the inauguration of liberalization some controls have been removed and the rigors of some have been modified. What is, however, required is to do away with the controls to the extent possible. For instance, with the comfortable foreign exchange reserve, no control is necessary on foreign exchange and the rupee should be made fully convertible. Similarly there is no need for measures like the Industries (Development and Regulation) Act and they should be repealed. Not only do such controls lead to corruption, they also tend to inhibit entrepreneurship. Their removal will reduce the chances for corruption. Moreover, it will give rise to healthy competition and will lead to sound economic growth.

3. End deficit financing

The concept of preparing the annual budget was evolved with the intention to adjust expenditure to the level of revenue. If it was necessary to spend more than the estimated revenue, the budget would propose the measures for raising more revenue. If, however, the shortfall is negligible, it could be left as uncovered deficit. But that concept has been set aside and we are witnessing deficits to the extent of trillions of rupees. Such deficits are bound to lead to inflation. Expansion of currency without adequate backing results in effective devaluation of rupee, which becomes evident in the form of rise in prices.

Though other factors like high prices of crude oil may play their part from time to time, deficit financing has been the main cause for continuing rise in prices. The biggest culprit for our budget deficit happens to be the Planning Commission. Nehru had introduced planning with a good intention, and that worked well during the first two Plans. Thereafter the emphasis of planning has been shifted to spending. If the amount planned for a head is spent even without achieving tangible result, the plan is considered as having fulfilled the target; while effecting economy on a plan head is treated as the shortfall of the plan. In short, it has been a spending spree and the money gets divert- ed to the coffers of politicians and other unscrupulous people. The Planning Commission has lost the plot and has been virtually planning for inflation without growth. Since it has ceased to serve its purpose, it is time to scrap it and put deficit financing to the end.

4. Make English our official language

English language now occupies the international status. Its importance can hardly be exaggerated, when millions of our countrymen have been living abroad. Its importance for scientific studies also is indisputable. No wonder that many families have been sending their children to English medium schools. The time for treating English as a foreign element has long been past.

Adoption of regional languages as the medium of State administration has given rise to all sorts of fissiparous tendencies. That needs to be put to an end to in the interest of unity in the country. It should also be noted that the people in South have been clamoring for retaining English at the administrative level. Adopting English as the official language at the Center and State level would not only placate the South, but will also provide an efficient medium for administration. Moreover, it will help in forging the sense of unity that was witnessed during the British rule.

 5. Implement common civil code across India

Though our constitution forbids discrimination on the ground of race, religion etc. we happen to have a Hindu Civil Code. Nehru had come out with the Hindu Code Bill because he was not willing to hurt the sentiments of conventional Muslims.

Hindus have long been feeling unhappy on account of the Civil Code being restricted to them and have been clamoring for a Civil Code applicable to all .Whatever be Nehru’s motive, there is no justification for restricting the provisions of Civil Code to a particular sector of the society. The Supreme Court also has directed the Government to approach it with a Common Civil Code. The administration has, however, ignored it in order to avert displeasing the Muslim voters.

In case, the leadership is too sensitive to Muslim sentiments, it can come out with a Common Civil Code together with the provision for an Islamic Code to be adopted by Muslims as an option. That Code should cover every provision in the Islamic canons inclusive of crude punishment for offenders, disavowal of interest on investment, etc. Muslims will think twice before opting for such a code. Since Islamic tradition heavily discriminates against women, the Code should provide for exercising the option jointly by husband and wife.

6. Quota on caste, not community

The reservations based on backwardness have created a rift within the society There was justification for reservation in favor of scheduled castes, because they were kept backward by the society. No other community was so debarred; they have remained backward on their own. They can surely be encouraged to come forward by providing in he belongs to a particular community. centives in the form of scholarships etc. but reservations for them in administration or educational institutions can in no way be justified. The Government is not an employment exchange.Its machinery is expected to function in the interest of people.Integrity and efficiency are the essential requisites for it. Its employment policy should be based on those criteria. Providing reservation there in leads to inefficiency and loss of integrity. No one would have the incentive to function efficiently, if his colleague or a subordinate is going to be his boss simply because he belongs to a particular community.

The reservations in educational institutions are leading to sub-standard outcomes. How could it be safe to have doctors with lower caliber to treat the patients?

It is hazardous. Similarly an engineer with sub-standard caliber cannot be expected to undertake reliable work. Indira Gandhi had favored the policy of reservation in order to pursue her parochial ends. It is now the time to reconsider it in the over all interest of the country.

But the policy adopted so far has created well entrenched privileged classes and the backward communities would oppose curtailment of the favors granted to them. They, however, need to understand that the reservations are meant to enable the backward people to come forward;continuing the same indefinitely amounts to perpetuating the backwardness. That fact can take some wind out of the sail of proponents of reservations.The consensus should therefore be arrived at for reservations to lapse after a reasonable period. Thereby it would be possible to put an end to discrimination’s, which have created rift within the society. The importance of forging unity would be particularly palatable at the present juncture. The enlightened people would wholeheartedly endorse such a move. It is hard to make out how the system has been perpetrated by the judiciary.

7. High time to check population explosion

We have been facing a population explosion. The population has grown almost fourfold since the independence. The measures taken so far have failed to restrict growth,because majority of the people refrain from adopting birth control measures. The growth in population sets at naught the progress in every other field. We should therefore be willing to adopt an effective policy for containing the population.

Such a policy should be deterrent enough to restrain the people from generating more children. Our people are very sensitive to payment of taxes and would like to avoid them whenever possible. In order to take advantage of that sensitivity it is necessary to introduce a tax on people who have more than two children. Every couple producing a third child should be subject to pay tax at the rate of Rs.1000/- (subject to revision from time to time) per month for 10 years starting from the birth of the third child. The liability to pay the tax for that period should continue irrespective of the child’s lifetime. Otherwise there would be a tendency to put it to death.Moreover, during the said period of 10 years if the couple produces another child, not only would it have to pay the tax on both the children, it should also be subjected to a surcharge at the rate of 25 percent of the tax payable otherwise.

These provisions would induce people to adopt birth control in their own interest. It is obvious that most people will fail to pay the tax, and it would not be possible to put all such offenders in jail. It should therefore be provided within the Act that those failing to pay the child tax will be subject to mandatory sterilization.I strongly believe that if we start initiating the seven points mentioned above, India will be well on its way to assume its place at the world top table.

(MANSUKHLAL (MANU) DOSHI was born in Mahuva (Saurastra), in December 1919, and moved to the US after re- tiring as the Assistant Commissioner of Industries, Gujarat. He is living in USA now)