Need further transparency in allotment of natural resources

The wide spread poverty and horrible living conditions in the third world countries is synonymous of the loot or illegal allotment of natural resources is the basis of enrichment of most of the corporate houses and ruling elites across the Globe. Same is the condition in India too. Natural resources namely oil, gas, coal, water and other power generating substances, land, spectrum etc. are grossly misutilized by political class and corporate houses. In India, till 2012, these natural resources were allotted to business houses in an arbitrary way. Country’s corrupt political families and business house made fortunes by the allotment of these natural resources at throw away prices.

The expose of 2G Scam led to the introduction of auction in allotment process in natural resources. The guardian of natural resources is the government and natural resources belong to the coming generations of the country. So the government of the day has to make judicious decisions in allotment of natural resources, considering the coming generations.

By cancelling the entire 2G licenses in February 2012 the apex court bench comprising Justices GS Singhvi and AK Ganguly observed for the auction of all natural resources. The angry UPA Government went for Presidential Reference against this observation. To confuse the Supreme Court, the key Ministers of UPA like Chidambaram and Kapil Sibal who are also lawyers asked many confusing questions in the Presidential Reference. Some questions were like this can water be auctioned, can land allotting for welfare of poor be put for auction, can auctions always need to be kept at rising like in the case of power generation etc.

The Reply given by the Supreme 2012 in connection with the 2G Scam is the basic formula in allotment of natural resources. The auction outcome in coal and spectrum shows how the country started benefiting. The lakhs of crores of rupees landed in state exchequer due to auction. Till mid 2010, the exchequer got pea nuts in the arbitrary allotment of natural resources like spectrum and coal.

Let us check the figures of auction of spectrum. The first auction started in April and ended in June, with daily surging prices which rocked the country. By auctioning 3G and BWA (the so called 4G), the country mopped up Rs 1.06 lakh crore. Those days, the Government expected only Rs 30,000 crore (as per Budget of 2010).

Earlier former Telecom Minister A.Raja, with the consent of former Finance Minister P Chidambaram, allotted spectrum and 122 licences (highest ever allotment) for just around Rs 9,200 crore. The3G/BWA auction, by gathering Rs 1.06 lakh crore, exposed the UPA Government, leading to anti corruption movements in the country exposing the 2G scam in the public domain. The Comptroller and Auditor- General’s (CAG) Rs 1.76 lakh crore loss figure on Raja’s allotments were based on the 3G prices.

The anti-corruption movements led to a surge in popularity of the BJP, which was in a sleepy mode till mid- 2010. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was born and it tasted power with lightning speed. The ruling Congress was washed out in most elections since 2011. Public interest litigations filed by Subramanian Swamy and Prashant Bhushan led to the cancellation of licences allotted through the 2G scam and the Congress government went against the apex court order and lost in the Presidential Reference to the Supreme Court.

But the second auction directed by the Supreme Court in November 2012, was sabotaged by the Congress government and certain corporates. In a single day, the auction ended with just the issue of 19 licences. All Cabinet Ministers landed at a Press conference to blame the CAG and the courts. It was strange to see Ministers feeling happy about loss of revenue. But all hushed up the fact that, even in sabotaged auction, the country received Rs 9,400 crore from just 19 licences, that too in small circles, while Raja had given away 122 licences for Rs 9,200 crore. All the telecom companies were in connivance with Congress government to pull down the prices of the mandated auction in 2014.

Then came the March 2014 mandated auction. More than Rs 68,000 crore came to the public exchequer. The 2G auction rates crossed the 3G figures. In the March 2015 auction, the NDA Government gathered Rs 1.09 lakh crore. And in October 2016 auction, Rs.65, 789 crores landed in treasury. In this auction also telecom cartels tried to pull down the competition to limit the bench mark prices in forthcoming auction in 2018. In total, by auctioning spectrum, the exchequer got more than Rs 3.61 lakh crore from 2010-2016. Similar are the bonanza to exchequer from the Coal Auction in the long run after Supreme Court cancelled many illegal allotments.

The CAG unearthed from 1990 to 2010, the country lost more than Rs.10 lakh crore from the arbitrary coal mines allocation. The apex auditor has only calculated the loss from the value of coal. The coal mining frauds are related to the generation of power and most of the power companies were engaged in pricing frauds also in connivance with the people in power. Frauds in power pricing means, ultimately common man lost many lakhs of crores of rupees over the years.

The Capital City Delhi is the main victim of power pricing frauds and we have seen that protests strikes against the power pricing frauds were the basic reason for the acceptability of AAP led by Arvind Kejriwal. Till the end of 2013, every persons living in Delhi will vouch of the exorbitant billing in electricity, especially in the areas, where power was supplied by Anil Ambani’s Reliance. One advantage of the AAP coming to power was the rectification of electricity bills in Delhi. Anyway no action was taken against the errant power companies when Kejriwal became Chief Minister. This is how the system works in India.

Let us check all the beneficiaries of old illegal and arbitrary auction of spectrum and coal. Answer is simple. All the major corporate houses of this country are the beneficiaries of these grand loots of natural resources. Tata, both Reliance groups, different Birla groups, Essar, Jindals, Lanco, besides several new unknown entities from south India propped up by Congress apex leadership were the major beneficiaries of the arbitrary allotment of natural resources from Independence to mid 2010. Obviously the powerful people from politics must have got their pound of flesh on this loot of natural resources.

We have seen the KG Basin oil rigging illegalities by Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance. How the governments dilly dallied in taking action on the violations in oil rigging and output declaration which ultimately affect the oil pricing. The natural resource oil is given for the whims and fancies of private companies and it ultimately resulted in power production and tariff hikes to the common man. One good thing Narendra Modi government did was the controlling of the purchase prices of oil from KG Basin. But here also no initiation of the criminal cases for gambling and misuse of natural resources by private operators and suffering public sector undertakings.

The Nira Radia tapes exposes how Tata and both Reliance groups involved in the lobbying of natural resources like coal, spectrum, and oil and power generation from natural resources. How Chief Ministers of the states were bribed for getting mining licenses and how media, supposed to be watch dogs were bribed to keep silence. Majority of the business houses always made fortunes though looting or smuggling of natural resources. These frauds only happen with the help of people in power and corrupt bureaucracy.

Now, by the Reply to Presidential Reference in 2012, the Supreme Court’s Constitution Bench comprising then Chief Justice SH Kapadia, Justices DK Jain, JS Khehar, Dipak Misra and Ranjan Gogoi has set out guidelines for allotment of natural resources. What we need are now the people with integrity in power and bureaucracy to adhere to the spirit of the guidelines specified by the apex court of India. We need more transparent laws, digitalised auction in all sectors and Regulatory bodies with people having integrity to handle the allotment of natural resources. Strong Regulatory Bodies are needed to check the possible cartelisation in the auction. In Spectrum auction, we have many instances of cartelisation of operators. These things are very important because natural resources belong not only to us, but also to coming generations. So we have to utilize them properly for the benefit of the country and its coming generations also.

By J Gopikrishnan Senior Journalist with The Pioneer

The Prognosis:

Political leaders are driven by four considerations national interests, domestic audience or vote bank, party ideology and personal convictions. While there is normally a strong overlap between party ideology and personal convictions, in situations where there is a tussle between the two, it is the latter that prevails in the case of strong, charismatic leaders. Both Narendra Modi and Donald Trump belong to this category. Also, international relations are need driven and ideology of the visionary sort plays little role. Further, in international realpolitik the stronger party calls the shots. Given this back drop, one can well imagine that the Modi  Trump Summit will be shaped by the latter’s compulsions, predilections and if one may add, idiosyncrasies.

2. True to his background, the issue foremost on Trump’s agenda will be US business interests. This was best illustrated recently by the whopping $ 3 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia and the supply of $7.5 billion worth of jets to Qatar in spite of their well known role in financing Islamist terrorism. As such, India will be expected to facilitate American FDI, place orders for mega defense deals and reduce protectionist barriers for US imports. The deal to supply 22 unarmed Guardian surveillance drones announced recently is a case in point; also, the proposed joint production of F-16 fighter jets in India. In fact, in his speech to the NRIs, Modi had stressed upon the business opportunities that India’s 1.3 billion strong market offers American industry and the steps taken by his government to make India a top investment destination.

3. Secondly, Trump would be interested in promoting American interests in the region and will look forward to cooperation from India in this regard. Counter terrorism operations and intelligence sharing would fall in this area. Additionally, Trump’s best option to counter China both in Af Pakistan as also in the South China Sea is to use India as a bulwark against Chinese expansionism. One can expect greater intelligence sharing as well as some support to India’s concerns.

4. From Modi’s viewpoint the expected takeaways would be greater US pressure on Pakistan so as to curb its sponsorship of terrorism in Kashmir, easing restrictions on H1B visas so as to safeguard the interests of India’s IT sector, transfer of high end defense technology, support for NSG membership, revitalization of the US India nuclear deal. As was pointed out by an American CEO after Modi’s meet with American industrialists, the Indian side has taken the right preparatory steps. Coincidentally, two nations which are often at odds with American interests and policy have provoked India on the eve of the summit China by denying Indian pilgrims access to Mansarovar and Iran by exhorting Muslims all over the world to support Kashmiri insurgency.

This affords a convenient opportunity for Modi to leverage towards greater American support in India against its two belligerent neighbours. Modi’s visit to Israel next month and that country’s warm response shall also enlist the support of the powerful Jewish lobby in India’s cause. The personal chemistry between these two strong willed leaders will have a strong bearing on the outcome and if all goes well one can expect some kind of a tacit understanding on how the Kashmir problem can be solved to India’s advantage. If so, one can legitimately expect some decisive action by the Indian government next month. The Indian home Minister too had hinted earlier this week that peace will dawn soon in the Valley.

5. India will do well to avoid at this stage any emphasis on the two thorny issues that may bedevil the negotiations US walkout from the Paris climate agreement and the restrictions on H1B visas. Both these issues are dear to Trump supporters and are likely to be red rags to the bull, to use a rather impolitic expression.

The Aftermath:

On the face of it, the Modi-Trump Summit went on expected lines. India avoided the twin thorny issues of H1B visas and climate change  an understand able tactic looking to Trump’s irascible unpredictability. India also refrained from pursuing its agenda on the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Security Council membership. There was thus a complete accommodation of American sensitivities on India’s part.

There was talk of freedom of navigation in the south east Asian region that was an outcome of the convergence of interests of the two countries visa vis Chinese expansionism there. There was an expression of their common concern for stability and orderly governance in Afghanistan.

The above would suggest that both sides were keen to avoid ruffling feathers of the other party. The concessions to each other’s interests was also reciprocal. Thus the US got the order for drones and the prospects of Westing house building nuclear reactors to India and Lockheed Martin F-16 jets. To the delight of Indian media, the US State Department designated Syed Salahuddin at global terrorist. Both these announcements came just prior to the meeting between the two leaders. From there on the one on one meeting between the two followed by the delegation level talks did not reveal any further surprises.

Thus on the surface it was a meeting between the two leaders did not alter the status quo ante in any significant manner. One can assume that the high point of the summit the personal meeting was inconsequential and to that extent Modi’s trip failed to deliver. But this would be a facile assumption, even unwarranted, given the emphasis by both leaders on curbing radical Islamic terrorism, mentioning safe havens afforded by Pakistan to terrorists and all but terming that country a terrorist state. Given the sensitive nature of the issue any headway or breakthrough in this regard would understandably be kept under wraps. Perhaps the real takeaway for India could not have been spelt out overtly in the joint statement or press meets. Behind the oblique reference to turbulence in the “Indian Valley of Kashmir” and the Pak sponsored terrorism there in the presser and the joint statement may lie the real gains of Modi’s trip to the US. If this is really so, then with Kashmir burning like never before we can expect some really decisive action by the Indian government in the coming months. And that may well sound the death knell of Kashmiri separatism.

 –  Dr Pradeep Bajpai

After a historical win, what are the challenges for this political newbie?

Emmanuel Macron is man on mission; surely people are disillusioned with the mainstream political parties. The change is sweeping the world and popular elections are throwing huge surprises. Post victory announcement, he has promised his cheering supporters he would fight to heal France’s divisions. As far as newspaper headlines go, describing Macron’s success, Metro’s “Le Big Mac” is possibly the most eye-catching. This is a big win – a huge win – for the 39-year-old former banker and virtual political newbie who will now become France’s youngest leader since Napoleon Bonaparte.

“What does Emmanuel Macron mean for France?”

Responses were euphoric but not particularly precise. “Hope” was a word I heard a lot; “something new”. But when I asked about his political programme, eyes went blank. And this is where the Big Mac comes in. Except that France has bought the burger without really knowing what’s in it.

This world economic and political power and key EU player is about to be presided over by a politician whose

person, party and policies are pretty much unexplored. That’s quite a gamble. One Macron issue that people are very clear on, though, is that he is not Marine Le Pen. That may seem screamingly obvious but it is largely the key to his electoral success. French voters desperately wanted change to stubbornly high youth unemployment rates, social inequality, a stagnant economy and the persistent terror risk.

They were keen on kicking out the old guard the traditional center-left and center-right parties that have governed France for decades – but they clearly favored “safe” change over a new French revolution, offered to them by the far left and the far right. More than 20 million voted for Macron, but millions of others did not vote or spoilt their ballots The fear and disgust in mainstream France at the very idea of Marine Le Pen as their national figure-head was palpable. Many Macron votes were simply by virtue of him not being her. And yet she still garnered one in three presidential votes on Sunday. Millions more stayed away or spoiled their ballots.

Macron is known as the French establishment’s anti establishment figure. This suggests it will now be quite a challenge to win over large sections of the French public. yes, he’s promised a new, dynamic France: socially just yet business-friendly, neither left- nor right-wing. But can he really dance at so many weddings all at the same time?

Marine Le Pen’s failure to win the presidency does not magically erase the social, economic and political reasons so many voters flocked to her in the first place. These sociopolitical divisions will become screamingly obvious in France now as it heads towards parliamentary elections. The EU too should exercise caution before popping another champagne bottle. If one Macron policy is well publicized, it’s his passionately Europhile credentials.

The president-elect is calling for EU reform but has conveyed a consistently pro European message, EU flags waved alongside the French tri color through- out his presidential campaign. He chose to make his first stage appearance after the election heralded by the tones of the EU anthem, Beethoven’s Ode to Joy. Brussels is cock-a-hoop that Eurosceptic nationalists have now been defeated at the polls in Austria, the Netherlands and France, with negligible chances of success for them in Germany this autumn.

But, and it’s a big but, the fact that populist politicians from the far right (and in some countries like France also the far left) have performed strongly in elections shows there is no blank cheque for the status quo. Voters expect change at home and in the EU. Emmanuel Macron promises to be a mixed blessing for Brussels. His reform proposals for deeper Eurozone integration will horrify German taxpayers for starters. Irresistible charm of France’s new leader is good or bad for Brexit? His commitment to EU unity will also worry the UK ahead of the start of formal Brexit negotiations. He’s promised to be tough. But is Emmanuel Macron flexing muscles he doesn’t yet have on the domestic and EU front?

Macron’s party was established just over a year ago and many of its candidates had little or no political experience. With all the ballots counted, Macron’s LREM and MoDem won 32.3% of the vote. The center right Republicans had 21.5%, while the far-right National Front (FN) had 13.2%, followed by the far-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) on just over 11%. The Socialists, previously France’s ruling party and their allies won just 9.5%. But turnout was sharply down, at 48.7% compared with 57.2% in the first round in 2012, which analysts said reflected a sense of resignation among Macron’s opponents.

There can be no disputing the extraordinary achievement of Emmanuel Macron. yes, he has certainly had luck but he has also foreseen with uncanny clarity how  with the right moves at the right places at the right times  the map of French politics was waiting to be redrawn. If the projections from the first round are sustained, then the change that is about to happen to the National Assembly is as big as the one that occurred in 1958 when Charles de Gaulle brought in the Fifth Republic.

Scores, hundreds, of new MPs will be arriving who have never set foot in a debating chamber of any kind, let alone the country’s legislature. It is all liable to bring a rush of blood to the head, and the greatest danger right now for Macron and En Marche is hubris. The victory is no doubt spectacular but so far it has all been electoral, phase two of the Macron master plan – actual reform – is the next challenge. And bigger.

What are the challenges for Macron?

He needs a majority to push through the changes that he promised in his campaign, which include: Budget savings of €60bn (£51bn; $65bn) in the next five years, Cutting the number of public servants by 120,000 & Reforming the lab-our market and generous state pension schemes, bringing them into line with private schemes But the pessimism in the country is reflective in the turnout was low, despite claims that President Macron had re energized the voting public. He has already left an impression around the world, in particular for standing up to US President Donald Trump on issues like climate change. After the projections were announced, a government spokesman said voters had shown they wanted to move fast on major reforms. President Macron must have to unite the nation and bring optimism in the people of France that under his leadership, the country is in safe hand.

François Baroin, head of the Republicans, said the low turnout testified to the “deep divisions in French society” and was “extremely worrying”. FN leader Marine Le Pen blamed her party’s poor performance on the low turnout, saying France’s electoral system, which favors larger parties, needed to be reformed. FN leader Marine Le Pen said the electoral system led to low turnout

“This catastrophic abstention rate should raise the question of the voting rules which keep millions of our compatriots away from the polling stations,” she said. Socialist leader Jean Christophe Cambadélis, who lost his seat in the first round, warned voters against giving LREM an absolute majority next Sunday. He said it would result in “virtu- ally no real opposition and we will have a National Assembly without any real counterbalance, without a democratic debate and not worthy of that name”. Elsewhere, German Chancellor Angela Merkel who, like Mr Macron, has a pro-EU stance congratulated him on the “great success” of his party. It was a “vote for reforms”, tweeted (in German) her spokesman, Steffen Seibert.

Who was eliminated?

The first round saw some political heavyweights knocked out. Most of the big-name casualties were Socialists. Besides party leader Cambadélis, eliminated in Paris, their ill-fated presidential candidate Benoît Hamon lost in yvelines, just west of Paris. Other prominent Socialists knocked out included: Matthias Fekl (ex-interior minister), Aurélie Filippetti (ex-culture minister) and Elisabeth Guigou (previously European affairs minister, justice minister, social affairs minister).

Prominent first-round casualties were Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, Benoît Hamon and Henri Guaino, The ex-leader of the Greens, Cécile Du flot, a former housing minister, was eliminated in Paris. Two prominent FN politicians party campaign manager Nicolas Bay and Jean-Lin Lacapelle were knocked out. And the big losers among the centre-right candidates were Senegalese-born Rama yade and Henri Guaino, a former top aide to ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Mr Guaino had fallen out with former Republican colleagues before the vote, and castigated voters in his central Paris constituency. “The electorate… just makes me want to throw up,” he said. He labelled them “egotistical bobos (bohemians)” and conservative Catholic “bourgeoisie” like those who supported the Vichy French Pétain regime in World War Two.

Macron has shown tremendous maturity in dealing with the delicate issues like country’s NATO participation despite USA bulling its European allies. The Russian President Putin visit to France was gracefully conducted by Mr Macron. French President personal equation with German Chancellor is likely to consolidate European Union. However handling Mr Donald Trump will be a challenge for Mr Macron. The new world order has China and India as the two major players. President Emmanuel Macron must balance west and east world to take his country forward.

– BY Opinion Express News Desk

The UK has seen some incredible developments over the past few years. No sooner had PM Cameron won the public vote in 2015 that he declared the date for the EU referendum, otherwise known as Brexit. At that time, I had advised the politicians that for the UK, Brexit was the right choice and indeed in my view, the British electorate would choose that as their preferred option. On Thursday June 23, 2016, the British electorate did exactly as I had predicted and voted to leave the EU. This set into motion a series of events that have hitherto never happened before. Within hours PM Cameron stepped down as the Prime Minister. He really had no choice since he backed the ‘remain’ campaign which obviously failed.

Of course, this led immediately to the selection of the next Conservative Party leader and therefore the new PM of UK. And what a battle that turned  out to be with the likes of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Theresa May all throwing their hats in the ring. The victor as we now know was PM T May.

The Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats also lost their leaders at the same time and we had several months when every major party in the UK was scrambling to select their new leader. In the end the Labour Party chose MP Jeremy Corbyn and the Liberal Democrats MP Tim Farron.

The stage was set to action Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. The first step in the process of the UK is leaving the EU. Months of turmoil with opposition politicians playing all the games they could, to if not halt the process, to slow it down to a crawl. In the end, PM May put the opposition to the sword in a parliamentary vote, and guess what, the Article 50 Bill passed in Parliament by a margin of 498 to 114. So much so for the defiant opposition that crumbled in the wake of ground reality, that being that the British public would not stand for any politician who stood in the way of the decision they had made.

Under normal circumstances one would have thought that the matter was settled and the British government should just get on with the task in hand. However, modern politics is no longer that straight forward. The opposition which has a majority in the upper house (House of Lords) declared that they would do everything to frustrate the process and by so doing, undermine the negotiating strength of the British Government for Brexit. The European bureaucrats in Brussels were loving this, knowing they also wanted to make life hard for Britain as well. As it turned out, most of the leading economic indicators continued to be favourable to the British economy. The doom merchants were being proven wrong as Britain continued to outshine most of its European partners.

having already lost one referendum for independence wanted to instigate another one. The SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon saw an opportunity of the Brexit vote and used that to promote her favourite policy for independence. However, the continuous sniping by British opposition politicians finally pushed PM May to decide enough was enough. PM May out foxed not only the opposition, and the media, but her own party members when she declared The Scottish National Party (SNP) that she wanted a snap election to take place on 8th June 2017. In the UK, we have what is called a ‘Fixed Parliament Act’. In effect, it means an election take place every 5 years. If you want one earlier, then Parliament must vote by 2/3rd majority for it to take place. Generally speaking, this would mean getting the opposition to vote with the Government of the day. Of course, when PM May threw this gauntlet down she knew that the main opposition had no choice but to back her call for an early election. Namely, how on

The state of play for the main political parties is as follows:

earth can any opposition run timid from an election? Even when it knows it’s in a bad way, political expediency means the Labor Party had no choice but to say yes.

trend in voting intentions of the British electorate. It does not take a genius to conclude that short of a minor miracle, the Labor Party will be defeated with devastating ease. They say that on cur- rent polling the seat sharing might look like: Con=388, Lab=177, LDem=7 and UKIP=0. The SNP in Scotland = 56. In my view, there is much that can still happen. As they say a week in politics is a long time.

This is of course just an exercise in playing with numbers. My interpretation is kept simple. The Conservative Party will win with ease and have a significant majority to get most of its legislation through the next Parliament. They will have 5 years in which to cement in their advantage subject to their policies working out and the public don’t get tired of the leadership.

The Labor Party will be crippled to such a degree that either it will have to dump its current unpopular leader, Jeremy Corbyn and get in a centrist like David Miliband (yes you read that correctly) or the Party as it stands will have to split. One faction (supported by most of its MPs) will try to galvanize the center ground in politics whilst the other faction will turn into a far left party with its dedicated core voters synchronized with its far-left ideology. What we can say is that unless the Labor Party takes some very tough decisions, and quickly, it won’t get into power in Britain for a good decade and maybe even longer. Make no bones, this is now crunch time for the Labor Party, it’s very existence is now in question and if it fails then don’t be too surprised if a Center Left Party emerges of a coalition of colors to challenge the incumbent Government.

what does all this mean for uK and India relations?

The answer in simple, there is a huge opportunity to reset the relation- ship so it is fit for the 21st Century. Britain is no longer an imperial power with an Empire to govern. It is a small island, be it a very important and influential island, just off the coast of Eu- rope. The fact that UK will be free of the EU means anything and everything is now on the table for discussions. The fact that India has emerged as an established 21st century powerhouse means it can demand, and it will get, what it needs. Be that from the UK or a host of other countries around the world lining up to cost with the new India under the stewardship of its internationally popular leader, PM Narendra Modi.

Both these countries, linked by history of course, find themselves in very similar situations. To face the 21st Century with new found freedom, new opportunities and renewed self confidence. Deals are there to be made in the interest of both. India finds itself in a powerful position that it has not seen for thousands of years. I have no doubt that these two old partners will find a new working relationship based on respect and shared values.

Europe on the other hand is in dire straits. The free for all immigration policies of the past decade are now catching up with devastating consequences. The majority of European politicians live in their ivory towers. They hide behind politically correct rhetoric and platitudes ignoring the plight of their own people and the surge of negativity being unleashed from the silent majority via the new social media networks. The establishment elite can no longer control in- formation flow and the diet of misinformation it depended upon to hoodwink the electorate. The news media that has failed to properly scrutinize the so called politically correct rhetoric is also coming in for some legitimate roasting. When politicians fail their electorate, the media ignore the truth for want of being PC – then it’s only a matter of time before the inevitable happens. And this we have witnessed in France with the far-right leader Maria Le Pen being elevated to new heights of being able to challenge for the French presidency. Think about it, in a major European country like France there is a huge proportion of people so disenfranchised that they are willing to vote for the very extreme far-right group. That means at the very grass roots millions of citizens are shouting, enough is enough, ignore us at your peril.

Brexit does not make the British electorate racist. The French have not suddenly become racist. And we can say that for most European countries now. What we see and experience is a cry for help from a sizeable silent majority. Unfortunately, the downside being that many of us who are classified as immigrants end up getting the brunt of these failed political policies.

The challenge for the EU is to accept its mistakes and correct them urgently. In my view, they won’t do that with the resultant outcome, massive street wide public disturbances on a regular basis. In 2017/18, we will see the streets of Europe resemble war zone, and folks that is no exaggeration.

In the upcoming British elections, win for the Conservative Party is clear and so on 9th June a new era beacons and I for one would hope that for India and UK, it means a much more productive relationship that safe guards each country not only on the economic front, but also from the advances of extremism and terrorism.

The Labor Party in Britain has increasingly moved towards the Islamic community in particular towards the Pakistani community. It seems it is now very much reliant on the Pakistani community for votes en masse to ensure it secures some of their seats. This has created a situation whereby it is now seen by many as anti-Hindu and anti-Jew. Both of these communities are looking at the Conservative party as a natural home for them in the knowledge that at least there are some aspects of shared values and goals. The Labor Party born from the Unions is also seen to be edging ever closer to some militant unions and with that many of moderate voters feel left out. We see many of these voters begin to move away from the Labor Party in favor of the Conservatives. What is even more surprising is that the working class roots of the Labor Party also feel that they have been abandoned by their own party. We have seen a size- able proportion of this group voting for Brexit as well as UKIP (very much the right of right party in the UK). For India one could conclude easily that a defeat for the Labor Party is the best option. The Conservatives offer the best choice for the best partnerships now and for the future. I would not be too surprised if PM Modi builds on the excellent relations he forged with PM Cameron and can now enhance those with his interaction with PM May.

With Brexiton its way, and with the General Election on 8th June, I see my glass to be full, half with new found freedom and half with new opportunities for the new millennial. This is a time to forge stronger bonds to protect the economy, but to stand firm against the disease of extremism and terrorism that affects both our countries.

 – OE News Bureau

When I talk to people about Manipur and my visits to our most well known northeast state, I usually see shock and awe on the faces of whoever is listening. The shock comes from the fact that I travel regularly, to a part of the country that’s known to be “so dangerous and life threatening”.The awe usually comes with a guilty confession of their ignorance “I never knew Manipur was so beautiful!”

While my words always speak happily about the land and people of Manipur, my thoughts are filled with sadness that stems from having seen some of the ground realities of the state and its people, first hand. To his or her credit, the average Manipuri studying or working outside the state, in places like Delhi and Bangalore, won’t talk to you about the terrible and seemingly hopeless problems that they and their families face back home. They’ll go about doing their whatever it is they’re doing, with a warm smile or cold aloofness, depending on their personalities.

They’re probably putting up a brave front and working very hard, to simply survive in a place that’s far from home, and supposed to be safer. Initial conversations with friends in Manipur about Manipur, were peppered with official acronyms, unofficial code words, and underlying tension all covered up with light hearted banter and jokes about the state of the people of Manipur, its periodic bandhs, the multiple UGs, and how anyone with the slightest opportunity was rushing off to work in mainland India, only to face discrimination and threats of other kinds out there.

However, as they realize that I have no political or business agenda in the State, and that I was only there to satisfy a karmic connection I seem to have with the northeast and its people, much deeper conversations happened with them. These conversations, spread over many kilometers of roads, many liters of hot and cold beverages, and even many hours sitting in a barricaded room, revealed deep scars, constant challenges, and the hopeless frustrations of almost everyone I met. Unanimously, they all blame the government and the non- government entities for the mess Manipur is in today.

So, what is the cause of the conflict in Manipur?

The core issues in the Manipur conflict, are of identity and territory; of different identities fighting for control and autonomy over the same territories.The problem started during the British rule over the subcontinent, and the Crown’s insensitive (calculated?) handling of the transition of power to the Government of India. Add to this, as the locals are quick to point out that “the insensitive and violent management of local sentiment and issues of the entire northeast region by subsequent governments in New Delhi”, didn’t help heal the wounds or solve the problems of the Manipuri people.

Over the years, the conflict has led to the breakdown of law, order, and governance in the state, creating further victims, who in turn have become protesters, and additional parties to the conflict. As a Manipuri friend of mine put it “There are so many groups and factions fighting in Manipur today, that we find it hard to remember who is fighting for what. We stay at home during bandhs nowadays due to fear of violence, but most of the time we don’t know who has called for it, or why”

Manipur has seen thousands killed over the decades, with atrocities committed by almost everyone involved, including State, non state, official and unofficial entities. Some of these entities operate openly in Manipur and its neighboring states, while others operate from across the border in Myanmar. Almost all of them are armed and trigger happy.

Reports as well as talk on the ground indicates that there are around 50 armed groups at play today, in the conflict over Manipur and its territories – both physical and emotional. yet, the people of Manipur are a disciplined lot, like most of the people in the northeast. They’re also friendlier and politer than mainland Indians, always quick to smile and help without expectations of anything in return. Service quality is decent in most shops and restaurants.

Imphal, when not shut by a bandh, is usually bustling with daytime activity, its streets filled with two wheeler and cycle-rickshaws and a generous sampling of Marutis, Hyundais and Boleros. Most neighborhoods comprise of low rise buildings, with the usual suspects of mobile repair shops, grocery stores, roadside eateries, multi brand home appliances stores, and roadside vends selling cheap Chinese products.

In contrast, all government buildings are fortified with barbed wires, steel doors, and armed guards all around. There is massive presence of armed forces everywhere, including the police, paramilitary forces, and the army. When you’re driving outside the city, it is quite normal to see sand bagged check posts at regular distances, road opening parties standing patiently on the roads, and armored personnel carriers of the army patrolling the highways. Topographically, Manipur is a valley filled with green fields, water bodies and small towns, surrounded by rich green hills on all sides. Imphal, with its historic Kangla Palace and Fort, rests bang in the middle of the valley and the State, and is perhaps the safest place to be, if you’re Meitei, or an outsider of unknown agenda.

The rest of the state, is no man’s land, especially if you are government, or an outsider like me. So, you don’t go there anywhere unannounced like to Senapati, Ukhrul or Chandel  if you don’t have friends there. This may sound harsh, coming from someone who says Manipur is the one of the most beautiful places on earth, but that’s the beginning of the irony that inhabits Manipur.

The uneconomical economy of Manipur

This dichotomy of Manipur is evident from the moment you check into a hotel (there are only a handful here). The two Classic hotels I stay at in Imphal, match up to the best of hotels I’ve stayed in around the country. yet there are always rooms available there, starting at 2-3 thousand rupees a night, with no hordes of business travellers or tourists landing up to indulge the hospitality.

Imphal is strategically located on Highway 39 (Now Asian Highway 1) which runs through the state and has potential to service Assam and Nagaland, as well as become the economic expressway to South East Asia, but that seems a distant dream. Most of the state’s 7,000-odd km road network is in pitiful condition, and when not closed due to some blockade or the other, it takes hours to travel distances that would take 20-30 minutes elsewhere.

Manipur is rich in Agriculture, and many essential crops and exotic fruits and vegetables grow here. yet we don’t hear anything about it, leave alone get to taste it in the rest of India. For those who love culture and nature, Manipur has some the most mesmerizing traditional dance forms I’ve seen in my life!It has some beautiful heritage sites like the Kangla Fort, and places of incredible natural beauty and wildlife, like Loktak Lake, and the world’s only floating national park, that is also home to the elusive Sanghai.

Ironically, Manipur produces some of the finest hospitality professionals in the country, and for the world, but tourism is almost non-existent here. Manipur has a literacy rate of almost 80%.Most of its citizens speak not only people doing the best they can with what’s available to them in the State.The undeniable truth is, Manipur holds untold, untapped wealth and potential not just of natural resources and tourism, but of talent that goes beyond the iconic Mary Kom. On the ground, everyone in Manipur, from the farmer to the shopkeeper, is a Mary Kom fighting some battle or the other every day, that too, with a smile.

The Manipuri narrative (it never seems like complaints) when delivered by locals to outsiders like me, is almost always delivered with a smile or a resigned chuckle, never with anger or aggression.And the narrative is always accompanied by genuine concern to ensure, that I’m well taken care of as a guest, of the people of Manipur. That says a lot for the real spirit of people of the people of Manipur, and it resounds with hope, for a state and people that deserve a lot more than what the past many decades have meted out to them.

By Mehernosh Shapoorjee Digital 5

Gurdwaras in Manchester extended a helping help and offered shelter to those affected and stranded by Tuesday’s deadly Manchester Arena blast.

“Sikh Temples in Manchester, UK offering food & accommodation. They are open for ALL people. #PrayForManchester #ManchesterArena #England,” tweeted Harjinder S Kukreja along with the address of the four Sikh temples located in the vicinity. The gurdwaras are Sri Guru Gobind Singh Gurdwara Educational & Cultural Center located at 57 Upper Chorlton Rd, Manchester M16 7RQ; Gurdwara Sri Guru Harkrishan Sahib located at 12 Sherborne St, Manchester M3 1FE, Dasmesh Sikh Temple located at 98 Heywood St, Manchester M8 0DT and Central Gurdwara Manchester located at 32 Derby St, Manchester M8 8Ry.

The locals in the area also took to Twitter to offer shelter to those affected. In what could be described as one of the worst terror attacks in Britain, at least 22 people were killed and dozens of other injured as a suspected suicide bomber carried out a carnage during an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester.

The explosion occurred near the foyer area of the arena in what is being reported as a “nail bomb attack”.

A man found dead at the scene is thought to be the probable suicide bomber, according to reports.

Last, England saw such a deadly terror attack was in 2005 when on July 7, terrorists carried out a series of coordinated suicide bomb attacks in central London which targeted civilians using the public transport system during the  rush hour. Fifty-two people were killed and over 700 more were injured in the attacks.

Also, in 2009, the Manchester police had thwarted a major terror bid to attack Manchester’s Arndale shopping centre on the busy Easter bank holiday weekend.

With up to 90,000 shoppers in or near the shopping center at the time, police believe an attack would have killed hundreds and maimed thousands.

A student identified as Abid Naseer, 29, who plotted the mass suicide bomb attack was jailed for 40 years in 2015.

 – OE News Bureau

Between the 16th-18th centuries, Brazil and Goa, both out- posts of the Portuguese imperialist outreach, had exchanges, which found reflection in the flora and fauna, food and dress as well as folk traditions of Brazil. The interesting similarities between folk traditions of ‘Boi Bumba’ in the north of Brazil and the Poikam Kudharai’ of South India draw attention to the strong under currents of cultural and popular exchanges that have taken place in the centuries by gone.Both are large developing countries, stable, secular, multi-cultural, multi-ethnic, large democracies as well as trillion-dollar economies, hence although the two countries are divided by geography and distance, they share common democratic values and developmental aspirations.

Considering the frequent Bilateral Interactions between India and Brazil in the recent years, India-Brazil bilateral relations are in a state of clearly discernible upswing, the Prestigious Awards, Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding for 2006 and Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disarmament and Development for 2010 conferred on President Lula of Brazil confers the shared vision of India and Brazil on an common ideology .

The constructive exchange of VVIPs, Ministerial and official-level visits in recent years clearly define the strengthening of bilateral relationship in various fields and forging of close cooperation and coordination in the multilateral arena, be in IBSA, BRICS, G-4, BASIC, G-20 summits and the recent BRICS Summit in Goa, India 2016 . An evolving bilateral order to name a many important few , the visits from India since vice President S. Radhakrishnan (1954), Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (1968), Prime Minister Narasimha rao (1992 for earth Summit), President K.R. Narayanan (1998), ,President Pratibha Patil (2008) and Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh (June 2012-for Rio+20 summit)., Shri Pranab Mukherjee, Minister of External Affairs (Feb 2008), Shri P. Chidambaram, Finance Minister from India (Nov 2008) ,Shri Jairam Ramesh, Honorable Minister of environment & Forests (to attend the BASIC Ministerial ), Mr. Jyotiraditya Scindia, Minister for State for Commerce and Industry (September 2010, April 2011), Mr. Sharad Pawar, Minister of Agriculture, Food and Civil Supplies, Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution )and other dignitaries and the honorable visits from Brazil to India since Celso Amorim, Foreign Minister of Brazil (April, July 2007 and September 2009) and as Defense Minister in February 2012, Minister of Industry and Foreign trade Mr. Miguel Jorge (March and October 2008) and Minister of Defence Nelson Jobin (March 2010),Foreign Minister Mr. Antonio Patriota visited India for IBSA Ministerial and Brazil-India JCM in December 2011 and VVIP visits of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1996),President Lula (2004, 2007 & 2008) ,President Dilma Rousseff in March 2012 to attend the 4th BRICS Summit and bilateral trade Summit and President temer in BrICS Summit on 2016 ,culminated in signing of the important Bilateral Agreements, MOUs , Extradition Treaty, Cooperation in Tourism, Space, S&T, Air Services, Oil and Natural Gas, Audio-Visual Co-production, Academic Exchanges, Infrastructure, Hunger and Poverty, Civil Defense and Humanitarian Assistance, Agriculture and Allied Sectors, Plant Health Protection, Human Settlements, Biotechnology, Technical Cooperation, Education, Metrology and Gender Equity.

On a sufficing visionary notes on the economic and commercial relations between the two countries and its bilateral trade crossing US $ 10 Billion in 2012 mark, states a historical note which includes – India’s imports: US$ 5,577 billion on Crude oil, copper sulfates, soya oil, Raw sugar, denatured alcohol, other minerals of copper and its concentrates, asbestos, valves, motor pumps, airplanes, wheat, precious and semi-precious stones and India’s exports: US$ 5,043 billion on Diesel oil, coke of coal, lignite or peat, equipment’s related to wind energy, engineering and electrical equipment, cotton and polyester yarns, naphtha, pigments, medicines and chemicals. Brazil is the most important trading partner of India in the entire LAC (Latin America and Caribbean) region. India and Brazil bilateral trade has increased substantially in the last two decades. However, the most impressive change is taking place now as the trade is becoming more diversified both geographically as well as qualitatively. In 2011 about two third of our bilateral trade of US$ 9.2 billion was oil products, whereas in 2012 this proportion has become less than half in our bilateral trade of US$ 10.6 billion.

India and Brazil have formed a bi- lateral trade Monitoring Mechanism (TMM) for periodic consultations. India signed a framework agreement with Mercosur in June 2003. the India Mercosur PTA entered into force on 1st June 2009 under which 450 items from each side will have duty reductions of 10% to 100%. Efforts are underway to broaden and deepen the India-Mercosur PTA and to link it, under IBSA to SACU as well.

India has also welcomed many Brazilian students under ITEC programme for training in communications, management and defense.

On the Cultural arena, The Brazilian interests in India are vast. Recently, the Brazilian Consulate in Mumbai organised a Brazilian Latin festival in Mumbai under the guidance of our versatile Consul General of Brazil in Mumbai, Ms Rosimar Suzano to portray the Cultural metamorphosis of Brazilian music as a Yogic fervor, performing arts and philosophy. on an extended note, a similar thread was woven too by Ms Suzano and the Ambassador to Brazil in India Mr Nunes on the 194th Anniversary of Brazilian National Day in Mumbai on 7th September 2016 , emphasizing on Sports and its bilateral connections with India during the curtain raiser of the Rio Olympics in Brazil 2016, where the Indian Contingent had a considerably large sports persons. Few of them from Maharashtra were specialty felicitated on the National Day of Brazil in association with Nena records and Productions and Mr Manish Tewari of ITV Networks (India News and News X TV Channels), India.

Nena Records and Productions, India and Brazil encompassed daily large segments in covering the numerous organizations, teaching Yoga all over Brazil in Ramakrishna Mission, ISKCON, Satya Sai Baba, Maharishi Maharshi Yogi and Bhakti Vedanta Foundation along with the wide coverage of sports segments of Brazilian and Indian athletes in Rio Olympics 2016 as special added episodes on Rio Olympics 2016.

Mahatma Gandhi is highly regarded in Brazil and the government and NGOs are trying to circulate the philosophy of non-violence among students, youth and even police. Statues of Mahatma Gandhi have been installed in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Londrina. The Brazilian cultural troupe had given splendid performances in India in 2008 and a large group of Indian artists gave several popular performances in several Brazilian cities in May-June 2011 in association with ICCR ( Indian Council of Cultural Research Ministry of Tourism Government of India )

the airing of the ‘telenovela’ and the popular Indian TV series ‘ Caminho Das Indias ‘(Paths to India) by the influntial O Globo television made a great impact in enhancing the consciousness of India in the Brazilian public mind and greatly contributed to the warmth and friendliness in the common masses of Brazil.

the Indian Association in Sao Paulo along with the Indian community of PIos /NrIs numbering 2000 in Brazil mainly comprising of professionals and businessmen, scientists/researchers in agriculture, physics regularly conduct bilateral events to further the bond between the two countries. A majority of them lives in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Manaus. the Indian Consulate General in Sao Paulo, the industrial and commercial hub of Brazil, was opened in 1996. the Brazilian embassy has been functional in India since 1949 and has Consulate General in Mumbai.

The Recent breakthrough on the 8th BRICS Summit 2016 marks a major step forward to the spirit of the Goa Declaration. the outcomes of the meetings of BRICS Labor and employment Ministers held on June 9 last year in Geneva and on September 27-28, 2016 in New Delhi, India and Brazil today initiated the text of the Social Security Agreement in Brasilia. the text establishes the rights and obligations of nationals of both countries and provides for equal treatment of the nationals of both countries and unrestricted payment of pensions even in the case of residence in the other contracting state (benefits export principle).

the SSA between India and Brazil once brought into force by early 2018,after completion of the ratification process in the respective counties will favorably impact the profitability and competitive position of Indian and Brazilian companies with foreign operations in either country by reducing their cost of doing business abroad. the SSA will also help promote more investment flows between the two countries. The Indian delegation was led by K. Nagaraj Naidu; Joint Secretary (Economic Diplomacy) of the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India and the Brazilian delegation was led by Mr. Benedito A. Brunca, Secretary (Social Security Policies), Ministry of Finance, Government of Brazil.

After holding wide ranging talks in the BRICS Summit in Goa with Brazilian President Michel Temer, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India deeply appreciated Brazil’s support to its actions in combating terror, noting both countries will work for early adoption of the Comprehensive Convention Against International terrorism (CCIT) by the UN. In the talks, Temer supported New Delhi’s bid for membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and conveyed to Modi that Brazil will work with other member countries of the elite bloc to facilitate India’s entry into it.

Modi said he has sought greater market access and investment opportunities for Indian products and companies in Brazil and was “thankful” for Temer’s “positive consideration”. Talking about Brazil’s priority to reviving the domestic economy, Modi said India can be a valuable partner in it. He welcomed Brazilian companies to come and invest in India and to forge long-term commercial partnerships. the two leaders also met a group of Ceos of top companies from both countries to explore ways to deepen economic engagement to progress in opening new areas of co- operation on drug regulation, agricultural research and cyber security issues. President temer and PM Modi also agreed to intensify and strengthen their coordination in important international fora and resolved to work closely at the United Nations, the G-20, G-4, WTO, BRICS and IBSA

on the the visit of the Brazilian delegation to Mumbai on Oct 2016 on a mission to explore new vistas for trade, commerce and investment, spearheaded Ms. Rosimar da Silva Suzano, Consul General of Brazil in Mumbai at the International Business round table organized by World trade Center Mumbai, All India Association of Industries, Apex Brasil and Ministry of Foreign Affairs Brazil at the World Trade Center Mumbai, confined that, “Brazil’s trade with India has immense scope for expansion which currently accounts for 1.21% of India’s total trade. the total trade between India and Brazil is at USD 6.69 billion in 2015-16. The market opportunities exist in the areas of food and drinks (coffee, tea, fruits, cocoa, and confectionary products), home and building (woods), machinery and equipment (vehicles and auto parts), mineral products and chemicals. Brazil has recently launched a new infrastructure Program, ‘Crescer’ (meaning ‘grow’) which will focus on concession, privatization and public-private partnerships, Brazil and India should rather look for complementarities and synergies between their respective markets and mind-sets in order to in- crease and upgrade their business potential. For more business to take place there should be more people to people exchanges. I am a strong believer of people-to-people relations to cement long-term and sustainable partnerships as under the ‘Make in India’ initiative, India is undergoing a series of reforms that are in the process of enhancing the competitiveness of the country.

Ms. Lara Gurgel, representing Apex- Brasil, said, “India and Brazil share a special relationship and tremendous opportunities lie between them especially in natural resources besides agriculture, food processing, oil & gas, mining, textile, spinning and with the successful conclusion of the 8th BRICS Summit in Goa, member countries should work towards the success of BRICS. Both Ms Suzano and Ms Gurgel appreciated the growth at a rate of 7.6 percent which is possible first and foremost by providing concession in freight costs.. they also emphasized on the technology segment which India requires and can be fulfilled through collaborative efforts with Brazil.

Adding further on the bilateral tie ups of India and Brazil, Rosimar Da Silva Suzano, Consul General of Brazil (Mumbai) stated that, “The BRICS, gave powerful impetus to the identification and development of specific bilateral and joint projects in strategic sectors such as agriculture, renewable energy, science and technology and paved sustainable and inclusive solutions to the global problems”,

Ms. Suzano while addressing a seminar on ‘BRICS-Challenges and opportunities’ organised jointly by Center for Latin American Studies, Goa University in collaboration with International Centre, Goa, emphasized, “that a stronger BRICS equals a more equitable world order as no country can by itself respond to today’s challenges, by pooling capabilities, resources and ideas over shared concerns BRICS is giving the world its contribution, at the same time ensuring its members a fair stake in the decision making process. She also recalled that 2008 global financial crisis confirmed the realization among the emerging economies that they should have a voice in the decision-making mechanisms put in place at the Bretton Woods Conference in the aftermath of the II World War that no longer met the demands of a globalized world economy. She advocated more reforms in global financial institutions and more investment in infrastructure in BRICS and emerging economies. With the New Development Bank (NDB), BRICS will have funds to finance infrastructure projects at the BRICS countries or in other emerging third world countries”

Describing Brazil as a proactive member of the BRICS, Ms. Suzano said, ‘Brazil saw BRICS as a window of opportunities not to be missed, and went on to recall that since inception, her country saw BRICS as an ideal space for dialogue, and consensus, identification of convergences and expansion of contacts and cooperation in specific sectors amongst its members. She said to handle issues of the global agenda the vision that is BRICS shall be open to constructively cooperate and engage with third countries as well as international and regional organizations. She also lauded the role of initiatives such as cultural exchanges, civil society dialogue and parliamentary meetings as having potential to generate new ideas of global governance and come up with inclusive solutions.

“BRICS offered a forum for deliberation and collective position taking a space to create a positive agenda and search for common ground within the international scene, an arena for intra co-operation in a gamut of subjects and sectors .Being an ardent supporter of multilateralism, she added ,”Brazil believes in the partnerships in different groupings”. the consul general said BRICS should have a collective response towards inter state wars, climate change and natural disaster. She admitted that BRICS has helped Brazil improve its bi- lateral trade to a great extent.

“At a time when the bilateral trade was mere 500 million dollars in 2005, it reached 11.5 billion dollars in 2014, despite the country’s economy being in doldrums,” she added.

to conclude on all the visionary and strong developments on Trade , Business , Economic and Cultural elevations, positive developments and ongoing growth between India and Brazil the visa issues need to be in- formed too to further the Indo Brazilian ties which states that under a bilateral agreement, diplomatic and official passport holders are exempted from visa for a stay of maximum of 90 days. And although there are no direct flights between India and Brazil, convenient connections are however available via Europe (London, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam), the US (New York and Chicago) and via Dubai. A Point to be pondered for an easy ‘Air viability’ for the Business and Corporate sectors of both Brazil and India for a smooth direct travel radar.

 – Carlyta Mohini (The writer is a leading Indo Brazilian Columnist on International Diplomatic issues and Politics, World Trade /Tourism/Heritage/Music and Global Fusion Vocalist (ICCR) /Songwriter)

Legendary investor George Soros has said that the Indian economy is under pressure because of rising inflation. Soros, the chairman of Soros Fund Management, “India is in a different position because India has very good domestic based growth. But inflation is a much bigger threat for India than it is for the United States and the developed world,” he said.

Soros said that the pressure on commodities continued to be strong but discounted projections that pegged crude oil price touching $200 per barrel in the short term. Soros said that rising commodity prices is likely to affect emerging economies like China and India. “China is in danger of running into wage price spiral because the authorities seem to have lost control of the situation,” he said, adding that there will be pressure on the Indian stock markets too. Soros attributed the high food inflation in many emerging markets to global warming. “I think that the pressure on food prices is a consequence of global warming. And that of course is a great danger for the world. And not enough … not enough is being done about stopping global warming. And that is to me … one of the most disturbing issues,” he said. Soros said that China’s growth had been been phenomenal but there might be worries in the short term. “India has started growing significantly faster than it used,” he said, but the growth needs to be inclusive. “I actually think that both developments are very real. But particularly for China which is growing so rapidly it is so easy for it to get off the rails. And I think there is a danger…China is not a democracy. And therefore if things get off the rail …they could get off the rail very far … be- cause they don’t have a mechanism for … to … for changing the Government … or changing the leadership. So it is something to worry about. But so far it has been absolutely phenomenal growth. And I think India also has started growing significantly faster than it used. So those are I think positive developments … not without some shadows… in terms of income distribution … differences be- tween rich and poor … and so on. But on the whole I think positive,” he said.

Soros was more confident about the global economy though. He said, “You have had a big boom in commodities and as a result of which the deflationary pressures (in US and Europe) have disappeared. This is very welcome news for the United States because you still have quantitative easing going on. So actually a result you have negative real interest rates. That is very good for the stock market and that is what you have seen in the strength of the stock market.”

Soros said that the rising commodity prices will not get out of hand because “as soon as the quantitative easing (in the US) ends, interest rates are going to go up quite sharply in the developed world. And that is going to choke off the recovery. So it is a rather temporary movement now that you have this. So I am not so sure about inflation really becoming that serious a threat be- cause it will choke off the global recovery.”

Soros said that the Euro had emerged as a source of disruption in Europe and is likely to give rise to anti-European sentiments. “The Euro was supposed to bring about convergence among the European countries. It actually worked the other way. We have divergence. You know Germany doing very well typically. Spain in a financial collapse and there is unemployment. So you now have two speed Europe. And if that is allowed to continue for a number of years it inevitably will create tensions and anti-European sentiment. So I see a political danger but not all immediate … I am not talking about tomorrow. I am talking in terms of three to five years but that … it should not be allowed to continue like that for that long because it could eventually cause a lot of damage,” he said.

 – OE News Bureau

Mayawati, the most authentic leader of the Dalits of Uttar Pradesh, has thrown a political bombshell by asking for splitting the state. This announcement has set the cat among the pigeons and all her political opponents are confused, even politically paralyzed, because they are not sure about the direction of public opinion on the issue of a four-fold division of Uttar Pradesh.

The real difficulty is faced by all India parties like the Congress and the BJP because every specific demand for the creation of a new state like Telangana cannot be treated as an ‘isolated’ demand since regionalists and sub regionalist political formations in every state can also launch movements for such division of states to satisfy political ambitions of powerful local groups.

The Congress cannot open this Pandora’s box because it will find it impossible to handle the conflicting demands of various segments demanding a state for themselves. But the point is that reorganisation of states is an integral part of the ongoing democratic process of India, even though regionalists and subregionalists are fighting for their ‘little empires’ and only the Hindutva forces are ideologically committed to completely redrawing India’s map, with the RSS’ idea of ‘Hindu, Hindi, Hindustan’, and reduce cultural and language-based diverse states to the level of mere ‘administrative units’.

There is a need for close scrutiny of the functioning of ‘new small states’ like Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh out of the reorganisation of united Punjab or states like Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Uttarakhand or the small states of Goa or Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura in north- east India. The ‘new small states’ present a very mixed picture on the basis of their performance and actual governance. The six small states of north-east India are dependent on the central government for funding their developmental programmes due to their limited availability of resources. The central government has been continuously involved in resolving inter-state and intrastate disputes and social conflicts that have plagued these states.

The smaller size and minuscule political representation in the Lok Sabha makes these states develop a feeling of neglect and alienation from the main- stream. The idea of small states is, in practice, full of problems as revealed by these six states of the north east. Further, within the state assemblies of these states, floor-crossing and defections are quite common. Thus, ‘limited representation’ of small states in the Lok Sabha acts as a handicap for them at the centre of power, and within the state assembly, with a smaller number of MLAs, governments can be destabilised easily. The BJP, on its part, has to answer about the actual functioning of three new states created in 2008 because the mining mafia in Jharkhand has been patronised by leaders of new states like Shibu Soren or the Mundas. The small states have not at all been models of good governance and their performance is comparable to the ‘mother states’ from which they were separated.

The new states have been created in regions where a strong cultural or linguistic bond did not exist among the majority of inhabitants of that state. Dravidian cultural ties are a uniting factor among Tamilians or Kannadigas; cultural affinity among the people of Karnataka or the Malayali cultural reference point for Kerala keeps them united and the demand for separation has not been raised by any powerful section in these three states. The Punjabi language and culture is a cementing factor in keeping Punjab united but Hindi has lost its cultural vigour and people of the Hindi states do not consider language based culture a uniting factor. Hence, strong cultural and linguistic affinity acts as a brake against separatist demands.

It is appropriate to conclude with a reference to the seminal work of Robert Dahl, Democracy and Size, in which he conclusively proves that development, democracy and good governance are ‘size neutral’, and big or small hardly make a difference. This important argument is valid for all societies. A functional system of governance in every country should reflect the specific social realities. Therefore, India’s requirements can be met only if a political system is able to harmonise and accommodate the needs and aspirations of multiple diverse cultural communities.

The unifying democratic, secular and federal central government is needed to keep such a diverse society united, and a balance or an equilibrium can be achieved by creating federal units not because ‘small parties have demanded small states’, but by evolving a political mechanism of arriving at a consensus on the need for a new small state. Leaders of small parties like Nitish Kumar or Ajit Singh have welcomed Mayawati’s announcement, but such demands are reflective of the desire of small party leaders to hold on to power in their areas of influence.

 – OE News Bureau

Rahul Gandhi is a known face of Indian politics. He is virtually heading India’s largest political outfit now. We are regularly debating Rahul effect in Indian polity on national and regional media. But he has never opened up his mind to people at large. Rahul’s politics has been stuck in this gear for a long time. He chose for himself the job of the Congress’ big picture man shortly after his electoral debut in 2004, working on long term strategic goals for the party, even as his mother, Congress president Sonia Gandhi, looked after its day-to-day affairs. The imminent change at the helm of the Congress promises the beginning of a cultural transformation in the Grand Old Party. Away from the public glare, Rahul Gandhi has set in motion a silent revolution in the Indian Youth Congress (IYC) and National Students Union of India (NSUI) by holding free and fair elections a first for any political party.

A few months ago, he surprised his party colleagues by suggesting elections to the Congress Working Committee (CWC). But entrenched interests and party chief Sonia Gandhi’s desire to make the CWC inclusive to balance regional, religious and caste demands stymied the proposal. The party’s youth and student wings, which had acquired the tag of notoriety during Sanjay Gandhi’s stewardship (a legacy they hadn’t been able to shake off), are being shaped into a decent and sensitive cadre. Youth Congress members, in fact, are said to be so disciplined consultant to its full-time leader. Will Rahul be able to swap his much vaunted grassroots level rejuvenation vision for a bit of medium term political pragmatism and the ability to manage crises on an almost daily basis?

Rahul has an experience of professional training in strategy consulting combined with a cautious, hesitant, and risk-averse temperament meant that he shunned short to medium term challenges, such as a stint in the Union government, for long term projects such as rejuvenation of the Congress’ youth and student wings, reviving the party in Uttar Pradesh were the Congress has been reduced to a fringe player, and brand-building aimed at projecting himself as a mascot of the poor. This orien where he launched the Congress’ 2012 Uttar Pradesh poll campaign, Rahul has shown the willingness to make the transition from the Congress’ political strats now that they are scared even of talking to the media to tom tom their achievements.

Rahul is rewriting the political lexicon of the Congress in his own way. In a revolutionary decision, he engaged the Foundation for Advanced Management of Elections (FAME), led by former election commissioners J. M. Lyngdoh and K. J. Rao, to conduct the polls in the youth and student wings. “Rahul has ensured criminals do not enter politics,” says Rao. Rahul has proved himself as the practitioner of a new brand of politics not foulmouthing opponents, ignoring jibes and barbs, and choosing a civilised engagement with detractors as well as his seniors in politics.

But on a broader platform, he is unwillingness to put himself in the line of fire. With the Congress confirming his ascent to a role of greater importance, Rahul’s approach to politics requires a serious change of course, and very quickly. After the election rally in Phulpurtation in his thinking showed up as a refusal to get into burning issues.

For instance, when he was asked whether he would personally intervene to resolve the Kashmir agitation of 2010 that witnessed unprecedented stone throwing protests in the valley, he responded, “My focus is on bringing youngsters into politics and I think that’s a very important thing for the future of this country. I genuinely don’t like to, sort of, move from one problem to another. I like to settle down, understand a problem in detail and then work on that problem. Solving Kashmir is not a part time problem. It is a full time problem.”

Rahul’s standard response to tricky questions whether it has been about inflation or political alliances had always been that his job is limited to being the Congress general secretary for the Indian Youth Congress and National Students’ Union of India. He then had the luxury of picking and choosing his canvas. It is a completely different picture now, to put it mildly. Other than electioneering in Uttar Pradesh and taking the Congress to a respectable tally in the upcoming assembly elections there, he has to pull the Congress and the United Progressive Alliance government, which it heads at the Center, out a series of crises.

To begin with, he has to find ways to arrest the sense of drift that seems to have become the UPA government’s leitmotif and salvage the remaining two and a half years of its term. He has to develop a working relationship with the Congress’ allies from the veteran M Karunanidhi to the tempestuous Mamata Banerjee. Then he has to battle the perception of the government having completely been overtaken by corruption scandals with neither the 2G scam nor Anna Hazare and his cohorts likely to fade from the scene quickly.

Then there are pressing issues such as the demand for a separate Telangana, which has been on the boil for far too long and is now waiting to explode. On the economic front, he has to find a way to put the reform process back on track if India has to make it through the looming global economic crisis. Whether it is in foreign direct investment in key sectors such as retail, disinvestment, or labour reforms, the government is waiting for the political go ahead. Then there is the Opposition, which will be ever on the lookout for any slip-up on his part to bolster their charge about him being naive and callow.

In the few instances that he has grappled with real-time problems in the past, rather than being sequestered in the comfort zone of long-term thinking, he has stumbled. His performance during the Anna Hazare agitation proved that he had a long way to go as far as reacting instinctively to tricky situations goes. His speech in Parliament, in which he propounded what he described as the “game changing” idea of making the Lokpal a constitutional body, did not help in diffusing the crisis at hand.

In fact, it made him sound completely off-key and unable to connect with the rising sentiment against corruption in urban India. He managed to bungle his Bhatta Parsaul initiative in Uttar Pradesh by insinuating murder of villagers in the backdrop of clashes between the state police and farmers over land acquisition a charge that could not be proved conclusively.

One big difference between his earlier position and the one he finds himself now in is his own willingness to play a larger role in the Congress’ affairs. Maybe he has no choice, given the reports about his mother’s failing health. He is taking on much wider responsibilities as far electioneering for the coming round of polls in Uttarakhand and Punjab go. He has taken on full responsibility of the Congress’ 2012 UP bid, which saw him launch the party’s campaign from his great grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru’s old constituency, leaving little doubt of the kind of role the Congress has in mind for him. Rahul requires experienced hands to guide him through the sharp bends that lie ahead. However, until now, his relationship with Congress elders has been indifferent at best and confrontational at worst.

He has not hidden his wider discomfort with the nature of politics in the Congress that revolves around entitlement and dynasty, despite his own acceptance of the dynastic mantle as the next Nehru Gandhi heir. Now, he may have no choice but to put his pet ideas of professionalizing and modernizing the Congress on the back-burner and turn to his mother’s advisors.

While his own team of non-political advisors such as Kanishka Singh and Sachin Rao are as untested as he is, there are some senior leaders such as Jairam Ramesh and Digvijay Singh who have worked with him on issues such as land acquisition and UP respectively. They may play a bigger part in the days to come. The most precious advice will, however, come from his mother and his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

Rahul looks set to continue with the left of centre economic position that has become his mother’s calling card, at least in the short term. In his speeches he has hinted that the Congress can fight the negative fall out of corruption and inflation in middle class India with UPA government’s welfare schemes such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, the proposed food security bill, and the Unique Identification number scheme which he sees as a key empowering contribution of the government towards improving the efficiency of the public delivery system.

The Rahul Gandhi era in the Congress promises to forge continuity with the present rather than usher in a new era in politics that his father’s initial years in power held promise of but never delivered. Ironically, Rahul has always maintained that one of the key factors that led him into politics was the urge to pick up from where his father left off. But the key question is that Congress is riding on the brand Manmohan right wing ideology with a great electorate success and Rahul is endorsing his policy on all major issues that contradicts his family Nehruvian policy. Similarly, his views on foreign policy, internal security, defense policy are ambiguous. Rahul Gandhi needs to clarify stand to the nation, earlier the better.

 – Prakhar Prakash Mishra

Once again, Anna and Lokpal bill – V.S. Sardesai

Since Anna Hazare’s current movement on corruption started from April 2011 to be precise, I was always baffled, confused and puzzled on two issues viz. Anna himself and Lokpal and I had expressed my doubts on every occasion I had written on the above subjects ; in the article ‘The Myth of Lokpal’, I have said that if one studies coolly the sequence of the events, one will find that the movement is nothing but a very well and carefully planned strategy to divert the attention of the people from the main issues that they are facing today and which the top icons want to avoid at any cost if possible because of the personal losses they would be suffering otherwise and that Anna even though may be the main actor in the drama may not be responsible in formulating the strategy though he may be a willing partner to the same; I had however decided to close the subject so far as I am concerned as the matter was discussed many times; but the recent disclosures on the subject made me change my decision.

Till he started the movement sometimes in April 2011, Anna was known mostly in Maharashtra as an honest and sincere social worker and leader and his field of work was mostly confined within Maharashtra. In his career until then, he has never entered into the national scene leave aside international. But as soon he started this movement against corruption by undertaking fast unto death he became not only a national leader but also got international fame. He was not only hailed as second or modern Gandhi by the media but also American government asked our government not to take any action against him. The media started giving him extraordinary exposure and publicity all 24×7 hours a day. In fact he had also started a new venture in 1991 called ‘Bhrastachar Virodhi Jan Andolan’ BVJN- (Public Movement against Corruption) and had undertaken fasts also; but at that time no such publicity was given to him. This was one thing which puzzled me. Why should a foreign government take so much interest in the internal matter and take cognizance of such events? In fact undertaking fasts is not a new thing for India and for Anna; and why should the media give so much extraordinary exposure and publicity to him only this time calling him second Gandhi? Is it an impartial reporting by the media or there is some purpose or design behind it and if so who is behind all this? If we consider the sequence of events, it will be found that virtually within one day he jumped from a regional social worker to national leader and got international fame; I don’t think there is anyone else who metamorphosed so fast from regional to national scene getting international fame. What is the secret?

Second thing which puzzled me is that even though Anna had started the new venture against corruption( BVJN ) in 1991 and the Lokpal Bill is pending in the Parliament since 1968 that is much earlier than the starting of his venture he never even for once has taken up the matter of Lokpal bill during the last twenty years even though he had undertaken fasts earlier against corruption and now only all of a sudden he not only has taken up the matter of Lokpal but agitated to get it passed immediately and goes on fast. If it was so urgent why did he not agitate to get it passed for all the twenty years since he started the new venture against corruption? And that is why I had always expressed my reservations and was skeptic about the real intentions and purposes of the Team Anna’s this movement and agitation against corruption. The very fact that he did not agitate for passing of the Lokpal Bill earlier for the last twenty years or so, even though he had started his movement against the corruption in 1991 i.e. after more than twenty years since the Lokpal Bill was first introduced in the Parliament, clearly shows that he never knew anything about lokpal or about the Lokpal Bill as a means to remove corruption till someone briefed him about it. The question therefore is when did he first came to know about Lokpal and how? Surely at that time there was no Team Anna. The question is why such an issue which was sidetracked for more than forty years became so important and urgent all of a sudden just like Anna Hazare becoming a national leader with international fame from a regional social worker virtually within a day? Is there any relation or connection between the two? I had given my interpretation in my earlier articles especially in “The Myth of Lokpal”, The Anna Phenomenon” etc, purely based on the sequence of events and logic. However the recent disclosures made by Raju Parulekar, ex blogger of Hazare and Shambhu Dutt, the 94 years Gandhian proved my fears to be correct.

Raju Parulekar has accused the Anna team calling them ‘the gang of four’ of using Hazare as demi God to further their interest and holding the government to ransom; so also he says that this gang of four has misguided the people to believe that Jan Lokpal Bill if passed will remove the corruption. I think they have misguided not only the people but also Anna in believing that Jan Lokpal Bill is the answer to corruption. In fact Parulekar’s clarifications have solved many of my doubts. Firstly it explains the mystery of the extraordinary publicity and exposure given to Anna by the media day and night making him second mahatma and a national leader within a day giving international fame or making him a demi-God in Parulekar’s words. Secondly how they chose Lokpal Bill as an issue for the agitation was solved by Shanbhu Dutt who was fasting for implementation of Lokpal Bill and who broke his fast at the request of Team Anna promising him to take up the matter themselves. Many questions however have remained unanswered. Firstly when did Anna came to know about Lokpal Bill and how or who briefed Anna about the Lokpal Bill and why? Secondly when did the team meet Anna for the first time and why? Why should the team take so much interest in removal of corruption only now? I hope we will get the answers to these questions also in the due course. In the mean time we can only guess.

I feel the answers lie and the mystery will be solved if we study the past events. The key lies in the Baba Ramdevji’s relentless efforts and movement of bringing back the illegal and black moneys deposited by some shameless Indians in foreign banks especially in Swiss banks and declaring it as national wealth and exposing the names of such traitors and the Swiss government’s declaration to disclose the names of such depositors if requested by the concerned government; I think this made such depositors panicky and they started thinking of finding a way out to scuffle the movement and divert the attention of the people from the main issues; and Anna’s fast and the Jan Lokpal Bill appears to be its result. How it happened, we can only guess. Either these depositors some of whom are very influential and holding topmost positions in the government and the ruling parties approached the team members who are NGO’s directly or through their foreign donors to implement a strategy formulated by them or requested them to formulate such strategy to find a way out. In either case it resulted in formulating a strategy to hijack the movement of Ramdevji and divert the attention of the masses from its main issues of bringing back the moneys from the foreign banks and disclosing the names of such depositors. For this, the team required two things; one, a person commanding respect and faith of the people and who can convince the people and whom the people will follow blindly and secondly an equally or more attractive and important issue as that is being preached by Ramdevji. They found the person in Anna Hazare; the difficulty however was that Anna was only a regional social worker; they got over the difficulty by giving him extraordinary publicity through media day and night making him a second Gandhi that Anna became a household name within a day. The difficulty of issue was also solved by adopting the other issue of Ramdevji viz. corruption which was preferable to disclosing the names of the foreign banks account holders; but the question was that corruption being an abstract issue ultimately would not stand against the concrete issue of bringing back the moneys from foreign banks. They wanted something to show that concrete steps are being immediately taken to end the corruption; they chose Lokpal Bill which was pending in Parliament for more than forty years. They amended it to fool the people that they are making it strong calling it as Jan Lokpal Bill. But to their dismay they found that one Shambhu Dutt, an old Gandhian of 94 years has already started a fast for its passing and implementation even though there was no publicity for him in the media. Not to be discouraged they approach Dutt requesting him to withdraw his fast, promising to get the bill passed and this is how the whole melodrama on corruption started.

They must have approached Hazare with their plan of agitating against corruption by getting the new Lokpal Bill as drafted by them which they called as Jan Lokpal Bill passed in Parliament and which, they must have told him, will remove corruption, may be without dis- closing their real intention or purpose. They must have also exploited his weakness for fame and Hazare must have agreed believing them and what they have said as corruption was also an issue which was dear to him without going through the bill as drafted by them or trying to find out whether what they say is true or not. He must also felt very happy as he would become a national leader from regional social worker and for being called second Gandhi.

But the difficulty is that every human being has got certain limitations and becomes successful only if he works within his limits and knowing his limitation; if he crosses his limits for any reason whatsoever he gets exposed; the same thing happened with Hazare; it seems that he is carried away by the propaganda made by his team making him in the words of Parulekar a demi God and started thinking high of himself without understanding his limitation with the result that he is slowly getting exposed. It now appears that Dutt is regretting for having handing over the baton to Anna team may be because he might be feeling lack of sincerity of purpose.

The way they made Anna a national leader and a Mahatma and giving publicity to him every day, in the same way they made the of Lokpal Bill which was pending in the Parliament for more than forty years and which was drafted on the basis of recommendation Santhanam Committee for administrative reforms for removing maladministration and mismanagement in the government, as if it was drafted for ending corruption in the society or at least reducing corruption to more than sixty per cent. They further dramatized the situation by drafting another bill, calling it as Jan Lokpal Bill in place of the one drafted by the government by giving the Lokpal draconian powers saying that the Lokpal as drafted by the government was toothless lion forgetting the fact that in India giving more powers can be a source of further corruption and in spite of making provisions, it will be difficult to remove a person once appointed especially to a high post. They ignored or rather overlooked the fact that the creation of Lokpal was recommended especially to prevent corruption by Legislators and ministers as it was difficult to prosecute them if they indulged in corruption and that Lokpal is only a prosecutor to prosecute a corrupt government servant or official specially when the act does not make any changes in the anti corruption laws under which such officials are ultimately to be prosecuted in a court of law and still they misguide the people saying that if Jan Lokpal Bill is passed , it will remove at least 60% of the corruption from the society as if corruption is there in the society only because there is no such Jan Lokpal Act passed.

Many a time people ask me when I ridicule the Jan Lokpal Bill, to suggest other ways if passing of Lokpal Bill is not the answer to Corruption. The fact is that corruption is a social problem and like other social problems such as farmers’ suicides or communal riots it cannot be solved only by making laws such as for example Prevention of Suicide Act or Communal Violence Act. It should be solved by studying the problem in depth, finding out the cause and the appropriate remedy. In case of corruption people would not like to pay bribe for the fun of it. They would like to get their work in time and not waste their time unnecessarily. And when it is not done they pay the bribe to get the work done in time. This can be avoided by fixing responsibility and accountability for not doing the work within a certain time. Of course there is Right of Information Act to find out discrimination. If this is done most of the complaints will be solved. I don’t think that any social worker will be so naïve as not to know this unless he is motivated by some other consideration. I think Anna has failed miserably to see the real intentions of his team or this gang of four and blindly following their advice, happy to see his name and photo everyday in the news papers and media; I only feel sorry for him.

 – OE News Bureau