As Karnataka heads for elections, it would be a limus lest for Modi’s demonetization and GST moves

“Ache Din” is a slogan, now has begun to mean “Sub se bure din” for Modi Sarkar. For the people of India, 2014 was a turning point in Indian Politics that saw a Modi wave but with the economic slowdown brought on by demonetization and GST , is now seen as a self inflicting wound for the BJP. This phenomenon of “ Ache Din “ has begun to mean “Sub se Bure Din” in the political atmosphere of Karnataka. Karnataka is the only state where Congress is the ruling party in south India. This coming general election will decide the direction Indian politics will take if history is to go by. In 1969 the Congress split into CONGRESS – R and CONGRESS – O. CONGRESS – R emerged victorious with Mrs Indira Gandhi becoming the true Leader of the CONGRESS party. The next cross roads that the CONGRESS party faced were after emergency. The second resurrection of the CONGRESS party was decided by Chikmagalur by-election, when Mrs. Indira Gandhi emerged victorious against Janata party candidate Mr.Veerendra Patil. The people of Karnataka in the ensuing assembly elections returned the CONGRESS party with the majority, this resurrection in the state was led by Mr.Devarajan Urs . In Karnataka the trend for last few state general elections has seen the phenomenon, where the people of Karnataka have voted a Government which is opposite to the party in the center. This election is going to settle many political variables that have been debated and discussed in various forums.

Modi Sarkar can survive the “demonetization and GST “impact?

Surely the economic slowdown and the impact of taxes have started to hurt the middle class and poor in real terms. On the other hand Rahul Gandhi is all set to take over the mantle from Sonia Gandhi who led U.P.A successfully forming U.P.A 1&2. Karnataka is at the forefront of being the bastion to protect and re-elect the grand old party. The BJP on the other hand are going to be tested on the concept of “ Modi Sarkar “, BJP in the last general election never projected their party as a BJP Government but built their entire campaign around Mr. Narendra Modi. Since the BJP put all the eggs in one basket “ Modi Sarkar “ By default they as a party have indirectly admitted that Mr. Narendra Modi is bigger than the party, therefore its stands to the reason, that the coming referendum in Karnataka will be a test of Mr. Narendra Modi ‘s track record as a prime minister and as an administrator.

The congress party Mr. Siddaramaiah the Chief Minister of Karnataka has given a stable and corruption free Government. His programmes of social upliftment and providing subsidized food that includes “ Indira Canteen “ and “ 5kgs of Rice” under “ Anna Bhagya Scheme” has been an outstanding success both in the cities and rural areas . Barring a few political hiccups, no major scandals have rocked this Government; it is a testimonial of good governance. The congress party has fulfilled almost 90 percent of the promises it had made in its election manifesto of 2013. The Karnataka Government under the stewardship of Mr. Siddaramaiah unilaterally waived the loans to farmers. The Central Government has given no help in this regard but on the other hand

they have been supportive to the other states where their party in Power. The congress government has handled the Cauvery issue without any major confrontation with its neighboring states. They have also handled the drought situation and power situation with great efficiency. The farming sector has seen a supportive and helpful government with many programs that has allowed this sector to see real growth. In the BJP, the major players are yeddyurappa , Ananth Kumar, Eshwarappa and Jagadish Shettar are rivals, they carry the onerous task of trying to present clean slate to the voters of Karnataka, knowing that they had presided, over the most corrupt tenure in the history of Karnataka politics with many of leaders has having spent time in jail. During the last tenure of the BJP .The party had to change the Chief Minister on two occasions and had the dubious distinction of having three Chief Ministers in five years. Mr. yediyurappa had a dubious distinction of being the only Chief Minister in the history of Karnataka to be jailed on charges of Corruption.

With Mr. yediyurappa back at the helm of affairs, a running battle between him and Mr. eshwarappa has ensued. This standoff continues to this not with standing the high commands intervention. The present BJP unit in Karnataka has become totally reliant on the central leadership and hopes that the magic of Mr. Narendra Modi and Mr. Amit Shah will bail them out of this quagmire.

However the Modi wave which has now become the talking point does it still means hope? Therefore, the electorate of Karnataka will answer this question in the coming elections. With the party high command being busy with the Gujarat elections in the home state of Mr. Narendra Modi, no concrete plans or programs have been announced by the local Karnataka BJP. It is rumored that the high command of BJP will resort to strong arm tactics like having Ministers raided through the Income Tax Department and other departments to create a scenario and paint the CONGRESS Party in Karnataka as corrupt. The old BJP tactic of creating communal tension may also come to the fore. It’s seems that other than the Mr. Modi narrative, there seems to be no issues that can capture the imagination of the people. It’s seems under the stewardship of yediyurappa, the cadre zeal is missing. yeddyurappa has been projected as the CM candidate; it’s rumored that he will not be made the CM due to his health. This has not gone down well with the Lingayat community. This community is the backbone of the BJP. Added to this the Lingayats are demanding that they be recognized as a separate religion, the demand is opposed by the BJP. These factors have contributed in emergence of many Chief Minister aspirants within the Party and hence riddled with dis- sent. Mr. Amit Shah during his last visit to Bangalore has not helped the cause by stating “that many of the sitting MLA’s may not be given another chance and that he will be the final say in ticket distribution”, this atmosphere of fear and uncertainty exists in BJP .

The Third Party JDS It is a father and son party led by Former Prime minister of India Mr. H.D Devegowda and in the supporting cast are his two Sons H.D Kumarswamy and H.D Revanna .

They hope to be the King makers if the conditions for a collation Government where to arise. Presently they are in the process of keeping their flock together. Recently seven MLA’s have decided to leave their party and there is a distinct possibility that more of them may fol- low suit. The CONGReSS so far as been the beneficiary of this migration. JDS is banking on the charisma of Mr. H.D. Devegowda to resurrect the fortunes of the party.

The JDS has presence in old Mysore regions and generally cut into congress vote bank in the cities. In Bangalore city the mayor and the deputy mayor posts are shared by the congress and JDS respectively. In the rural areas JDS projects itself as a champion of the farmers, H.D.Devegowda has built this party around the slogan “son of the soil”. It remains to be seen if this “son of the soil” political concept is going to be relevant among the farmers who have not had any major problems with onset of good monsoons this year.

The unfolding story In the coming months the results from Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat will be announced. These results may not have any direct bearing on the outcome in Karnataka, certainly will carry a perception mes- sage. In Karnataka politics caste politics has played a major role in shaping elections, many a time this has taken a back seat especially when political waves have overshadowed local equations. Anti incumbency has also played a major part in the past. The major communities have played a decisive role when phenomenon such as a political wave or anti incumbency has been absent. Congress is a party that believes in social justice and will follow a system of balancing social classes and win ability as a criterion for seat selection. This formula is a delicate task, if the recipe is right, a formidable approach to winning an election BJP on the other hand has no such compulsions “horses for courses “is their strategy built around polarization of the Hindu vote. However there

is confusion among the Lingayat voters over their demand for a separate religion status which the BJP has opposed. This community has been the bedrock of the party. The congress party on the other hand has been sympathetic to their demands. JDS on the other hand will try to muster their base and hope to wean away as many “Vokkaligas” the other major community from the congress. “Vokkaligas” predominantly are from the south of Karnataka. They will also try to get the Muslim community to back them. They have in the past accommodated disgruntled candidates from the other parties. The elections of 2018 are going to be a game changer in south India and may also have a great impact on national politics. At stake is the prestige of Modi government, anti incumbency and realignment of local caste equation.

By Thimmaiah shreepada Renu

For an faster growth, India must become power-sufficent Perspective

Although the overall installed capacity and availability of power has increased in our country, yet the pain areas still remain unfixed. The financial conditions of the Distribution Companies are deteriorating, power supply in rural areas is still a big issue, electricity consumers still await for uninterrupted power supply and the Discoms are left with no other option than Tariff Hike. In this era, when India is looking for- ward at becoming a dominant economy in the world, the current Power Scenarios could only drag down its dream.

Power is the not only a critical component for the infrastructural growth, it’s also very crucial for economic development and welfare of the nation. India’s generation capacity will have to increase approximately by 7 times of the present figure to meet our growth needs. The major part of our energy mix depends on fossil fuels, which are finite and have environmental implications. Taking this into consideration, post the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21 summit) the Government has decided to go for a low-carbon transformation of the Power system. In this context, India has endorsed renewable as the future source to fuel the rapid growth engine. And so the Government has set an ambitious target of 175GW of renewable power installed capacity by the end of 2022, of which approx 58 GW has been installed so far. This opens ground for many players to participate and encourages entrepreneurship, whilst focusing on passing the benefit to end user of electricity. Having said that, the challenges still remain strong.

the renewable Sector:

Prices for renewable based electricity have been dropping globally and more so here in India. The effect of this trend of cost reduction in renewable is changing the dynamics in the sector and thus making investments in conventional power plants unfeasible. Electricity generation through the the renewable source of energy is increasing with every passing day. The initially impact ful Wind and large-scale solar power plant later faced various challenges in terms of technology and financials too.

Despite the impressive performance of the renewable industry, the Indian energy sector continues to be plagued with multifaceted challenges some of which can be summarized as below:

? Unawareness about the importance of accurate designing and reliable engineering to meet the required demand.

?Fulfilling the expectations of developers, manufacturers, and utilities in a timely and cost effective way

?The challenge of maintaining good quality with apt pricing/costing

The Wind system despite having a great potential faces several bar- riers in the field, some of which are:

?A geographically suitable and source capable site

?Capacity allocation at the location ?Land clearance

?Suitable policy framework

?Power evacuation up to the grid

?Cost parity with Solar energy Due to these a major lack of investment interest and belief in this renewable source is expected.

Challenges with large-scale solar power plant

Large scale solar projects too come with some challenges, majority of them being technological. Consider a big solar power plant over which a big cloud is passing by this will result in reduction of the units generated by the plant thus the total generation will differ from the scheduled generation. This in turn will cause penalties imposed by Load Dispatch centers on the generator, impact the tariff and financials.

Constraints of inter-state transmission lines which are used at full capacity most of times is another major challenge. This may result in wastage of this energy at the renewable surplus states, thus not reaching the electricity deficit states. The route of traffic revision that more and more states are taking for the renewable energy projects has caused a major stir in the sector and the bids have shown a downward chart.

The new dedicated Inter-State Green energy Corridor program in that the Government has initiated with Germany would allow interstate renewable energy transmission and reduce wastage. However, this will take time and requires investments.

Importance of Projection and Forecasting

Both solar and wind power are not as easy to control as fossil fuel plants, therefore power grids need to become capable enough to handle last-minute changes in power generation.

Any deviation from the scheduled generation results in a huge amount of penalty to the generator and to avoid this detailed forecasting and projections analytics is required at both the demand and the supply side. Forecasting the prices in case of purchase from exchange needs to be focused on as well.

Thus, at present solar rooftops has become the need of the hour. Doing so will not only address the current issue of energy shortage but also give the consumer an opportunity to become a producer, the more common word: “Prosumers”. The Major problem of voltage fluctuation and power loss will also go down with the use of rooftop solar.

It is commonly known that Rural areas in India are non-uniformly electrified. The energy requirements of these areas are only being met by the techno- logical and financial rich states whereas poorer states are still struggling to do so. Mini-grid and Off-grid solutions along with battery/energy storage are going to help a lot to mitigate such problems in these areas. No more lack of electricity will hinder the growth at these current energy deficit regions.

An important solution to sporadic renewable will be storage. There is a whole lot of scope in Advancement of energy storage technologies in the near future. Countries are developing number of 10MW, 20MW etc of energy storage plants which can help not only during situation of power shortage but also support the grid when needed. energy storage is becoming a major player in the global energy market and will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. The development of battery technology has been spurred by increasing viability of electric vehicles. India expressed its desire to go-all electric this year and backed its intention with a policy push. The Government has stated that the companies that follow official policies aggressively and switch to non-polluting fuels, stand to benefits in the long term.

Furthermore, the prices of battery packs for typical electricity cars has gone down by 58% ($600 to $250) in last 5 years and by 2024 it is expected to come down to $100. The capital costs of electric vehicles are expected to be less than that of petrol vehicles in next 5 years, with acceptable range and operational costs at a fraction of that of petrol vehicles.

The benefits of energy storage will become both more attainable and attractive as the component prices decline. Integration with the Internet of Things (IoT) will create additional advantages through intelligent energy storage to facilitate the integration of energy storage and renewable as well. These technologies need to be developed further for a country like India. Not only this will help in achieving the goals of government policies, it will also bring a number of entrepreneurship opportunities.

Opportunities in Solar Industry

The Solar industry is expanding with an exponentially rising number of both solar system installers and manufacturers. The sector has also seen a rise in distributors/stockists/warehouses specifically of foreign brands of inverts,modules etc. Solar trading is becoming an important link in the value chain of the business. Primary traders are focusing on equipment’s (modules, batteries, inverts etc.) and accessories such as cables and switch gear. The other type of traders are those who prefer carrying out EPC orders and they may most often referred as business development associates, partners etc
Another category of traders in the sectors are the equipment traders, these traders also book sales order for EPC (engineering, Procurement, and construction) for either themselves or other companies.

Mini Grid and Off-Grid – Last mile connectivity for Rural With huge and diverse geographical and economical diversity rural electrification is one the important exercise for the current government. Last mile connectivity means small, off-grid project will become the most effective way to expand access to electricity and its reach to the rural areas. Micro grids provide an immediate solution for rural India to gain access to electricity. Since these off-grid projects incorporate renewable energy sources to generate electricity, these would provide more sustainable and more reliable solutions in these areas.

the Generation based incentives, the capital and interest subsidies, the concession finance and inter- est subsidies offered by the government are definitely promoting the adoption of renewable energy but a long-term integrated plan is much required. A plan that would:

? Make power grids more flexible.

?Develop an infrastructure for eV expansion.

?Be a primer for policy for storage technology development and brings investment.

Our Service Oriented team at Saker energies specializes in all kind of solar solutions one needs. We offer Pioneer Services of Renewable energy, System Designing and engineering catering to commercial, industrial, architectural and institutional applications in a cost effective. The interactions with utilities, designing of solutions or procurement of equipment will all be done with due deliberation by us.

Classified feature article by SAKER ENERGIES PVT LTD Website: www.sakerenergies.com  

JINPING EMERGES AS CHINA’S MOST POWERFUL LEADER SINCE MAO

In October 18, Beijing organised a week-long 19th National Congress of Communist Party of China, an event that the world is following closely. The summit — being attended by 2,287 party members from various provinces — is important as it will select its new brand of leadership, agendas and goals for the next five years and ahead.

Moreover, the 19th National Congress is a significant political event for Chinese President Xi Jinping himself. Since assuming power in 2012, he has envisioned a “national rejuvenation” programme for China under the theme of “Chinese dream”. This is attached to two major centenary goals: To make China moderately prosperous society by 2020, a year before centenary celebration of the Communist Party of China (CPC), and to aim to establish a prosperous and powerful nation by 2049 to commemorate the centenary year of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

These goals have been planned to be fulfilled with a number of reform programmes and the highlights are: Reforms in the army, fight to root out corruption from political, military and public spheres, and poverty eradication.

Xi in his October 18 speech at the Congress highlighted that in the last five years China has made drastic progress through these reforms. It aims to lift total 98 million people from poverty trap in eight years, which shall be a remark- able feat. In addition, China has worked towards right-sizing of military and its modernization. The country’s fight against corruption has seen prominent military and political bigwigs falling from the grace. Progress in reforms in the last five years under Xi’s leadership has been promising, however the road ahead is fraught with daunting internal and external challenges, primarily concerning the economic slowdown, the promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), North Korean crisis, etc.

Politically, the 19th National Congress will entail selection of around 200 full members and 100 alternate members, finalization of 25-member Politburo Committee and seven-member Politburo Standing Committee and lastly the members of the anti-corruption watchdog CCDI, currently being headed by Xi’s loyalist Wang Qishan.

In 1980, President Deng Xiaoping had put in place the concept of collective leadership to prevent or guard re- turn to arbitrary abuses of Mao’s final decades (the cultural revolution). Similarly, the Article 79 of the party constitution restricts tenures of President and Premier to 10 years, however there are no restrictions on general secretary of the CPC and chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC). There has been an unofficial but consistent rule called “seven up, eight down” according to which if a Politburo Standing Committee member is 68 or older at the time of a party Congress, he must retire, but if he is 67 or younger, he may still enter the committee.

In the current situation, five of the seven PSC members are about to complete 68 years of age. However, the speculation is rife that the “seven up, eight down” rule will be violated to allow Wang Qishan, head of the CCDI, to stay put beyond the retirement age. As per certain analysts, this could be indicative of President Xi’s intention to retain power beyond 2022.

President Xi has amassed much control and his predominance is clearly established in the Chinese political spectrum. He is now regarded as the most powerful leader in decades after Mao. He has taken charge of most of the portfolios and ruling through the leading small groups and has placed his key aides at various nerve centers.

The communique of the sixth plenum of the 8th Congress clearly insists that the principles of collective leadership must always be followed and should not be violated by any organisation or individual under any circumstances or any reasons.

Such statements accentuate the hypothesis above. As regard the chain of succession is concerned, the concept of patronage underscores in China’s Communist Party. The senior party members identify promising stars/ protégés and nurture them for higher dispensations. This ensures loyalty in the lineage. As per certain political analysts, 23 politburo members are of the fifth generation (1953 born like President Xi), and there is speculation that President Xi may block their advancement to the Politburo Standing Committee, while promoting own sixth generation protégés or loyalists to fill the politburo, thereby creating conditions to extend the tenure beyond the 20th Congress, in the absence of qualified members.

It may be pertinent to mention that the erstwhile Soviet Union too faced similar conditions of slowing economy and systemic corruption in political, military and military spheres, which lead to its final collapse. President Xi, out of concern or fears, has perhaps taken actions to guard China against such situations.

All these assumptions and conjectures will be put to rest by the end of the 19th National Congress, which would have selected the members of the politburo committee, Politburo Standing Committee and members of the Central Military Commission.

Speculation, however, is mounting rapidly in favor of President Xi that he may be nominated as the general secretary of the CPC and chairman of the CMC for life-term to steer the nation towards achieving the momentous centenary goals.

BY Gaurav Misra | in Oped

A legend in uniform and also out of it, Arjan Singh is an example well set and will remain an inspiration for the future generations.

Fourth generation in the defense forces, hero of seven wars, Indian Air Force (IAF) chief at a young age of 48, someone who gave away all his earnings worth Rs 2.5 crore in charity, mostly to widows of martyrs, three decades in uniform god does not make a man like Arjan Singh anymore. When he walked into the sunset at the ripe old age of 98, he was as ramrod straight as he was all those decades back when he saved the crucial town of Akhnur from the Pakistanis to give India victory in the 1965 war. Called upon to foil Pakistan’s operation Grand Slam targeting Akhnur, and asked how long we would take to provide air sup- port, he is famously said to have stated, “just give me an hour” and struck much within that time. Folklores around his flying man oeuvres are still the subject of discussion at the IAF table talks. To remain so relevant even after 48 years after retirement is a legend in itself.

Arjan Singh is one man who gave life some lessons all his own and inspired generations of our men in com- bat zones on how to be nonchalant with raw courage, a trait he sported with elan all through his myriad missions. He was a soldier’s soldier, a man with vision, propeller of team-ship and someone who was totally involved in the betterment of his juniors. During his tenure with the IAF which he joined as a tender 19-year-old from Lyallpur, he flew 60 different aircraft and has the singular distinction of having led the fly past on August 15, 1947, the day India got independence. Much of the credit of modernization of the IAF and its cache of aircraft and professional flyers goes to Singh. But even much after his retirement in 1969, this man of action but very few words lived a life well conducted. Ramrod straight till the last day, Singh was a long retired soldier who did not live just in memory but in classrooms of all the three Armed Force services as a warrior with a unique brand of bravery. Retirement saw him conducting the nation’s business as Ambassador of Switzerland, Kenya and The Vatican. As Delhi’s Lt Governor, he performed his civil duties with the gumption of a committed soldier. While Singh was a household name during the war days, it is astonishing how even 48 years after retirement he continues to be widely known and the only “Marshal of the Indian Air Force”. He matched his working distinctions with very many philanthropic activities which helped the needy. Not many may know, but he and his wife Teji who sadly passed away on his birthday six years ago, used up all their money to launch a special fund for wards of non-combatants of the IAF.

 – Dr Rahul Misra

Fighting terror with terror is failing drastically

Another terror attack jolted Europe and it was London again, not long after the incident in Catalonia, Barcelona. Western Europe has been an easy target for terror mongers in the past few years with a spate of scattered incidents being reported. And, if some sources are to be believed India is under the radar of the ISIS too while the terror group has openly con- fessed its desire to target Europe.This has bred a feeling of uncertainty in Europe and has instilled fear among citizens and governments. While, it is not hard to trace the roots of such acts of violence the sporadic nature makes it hard to predict and prevent them.

International powerhouses like The United States of America with their constant meddling in other nation’s affairs for oil or for geopolitical gains have brought down stable regimes and have set in motion the wheel of unrest and chaos particularly in west Asia. A commingling of ideological and cultural differences, politics and largely the fear of alienation has contributed to the rise of groups like ISIS, which have bombed trains, public spaces, structures all around the world. Talking of the ISIS particularly, how the volatile state of affairs has ravaged Syria, Iraq and neighboring areas and how actively people across continents have joined forces paints a grim picture with dangerous undertones. Tracing the journey from the past one can logically attribute volatility in Middle-East and West Asia to politics of isolation and extraneous intrusion by western countries specifically the United States of America. The refugee crisis is a grave example of the looming instability in these areas. There have also been reports and stark evidences of funding for terror groups coming from trade with nations in the middle-east and the role of diverse factors in its growth like oil trade in the black market.

Influencing young men and women into joining these groups isn’t difficult as the feeling of not being a part of the existing society gives birth to vengeance. Many conspiracy theories and rumors have indicated that the birth of ISIS and its actions are in fact a western ploy to fulfill selfish interests. Lately, there has been a sustained and concerted effort to weed out Islamic State from Syria and Iraq which has helped take back large swathes of land from ISIS’s control. The estimated strength of ISIS is now close to just a few thousand people and limited to smaller areas. However, concerns have been raised about a scattered effort by Islamic State personnel due to its gradual disintegration courtesy of the intensive group effort by international players. While, there has been an influx of people from different countries, Indian Muslims have been responsible and have vociferously voiced their anguish against the indoctrination and heady radicalization that has divided the world. As claimed by the Indian

Government, there have been negligible recruitment’s from India by the ISIS and India has largely remained safe from ISIS’s clutches. India has the second largest Muslim population and has been able to maintain harmony which indicates that terrorism is not about any specific community, religion, ethnic background, etc. and does not stem from that.

It is a paradox that while claims of being connected to everyone on the globe by the 5th degree are made, there is increasing isolation on the lines of religion, culture, race, ethnicity, etc. Divisive ideas are cultivated in impressionable minds through radicalization and the promise of a great future gives a sense of purpose to live in an unaccommodating world. There is evidently a pattern of isolation, violence, counter violence and consequent instability behind terrorism. Eliminating terrorism altogether seems like a long shot, rather a fancy dream; in spite of, sufficient ground gained by pushing ISIS back or be it by declaring Pakistan a safe haven for terror groups or any other positive step for that matter. Counter violence is only a superficial response to an age old problem, the causes of which lie deep down and so do the solutions. Governments along with the UN and other stakeholders need to come together for a sustained dialogue with an empathetic resolve to build inclusive societies focussing on achieving the sustainable development goals. As dialogue and conversations have long been the basis of any process that aims to resolve problems and build peaceful societies.

Providing safe havens to refugees who are victims of terrorism can be a great step towards inclusive development and a manifestation of humanitarian concern. Isolating ourselves from the problem which has deep roots and complexities surrounding it can further foment the crisis that looms large in forms of cross border disputes, radicalized groups demanding a caliphate, or statehood nationhood movements.

 – By Deana Uppal

Pakistan cuts a sorry figure at the UN as its ploy to tarnish India through a fake picture gets exposed

India exposed Pakistan at the United Nations saying it has callously exploited the picture of an injured Palestinian girl to spread falsehoods about India and divert attention from Islamabad’s role as the hub of world terrorism. Paulomi Tripathi, a First Secretary in India’s UN Mission, held up the photograph of the body of Lt. Umar Faiyaz, a young soldier from the Indian state of Kashmir who was tortured and killed by Pakistan backed terrorists, surrounded by mourners, and a picture of Paalestinian girl claiming she was Kashmiri.

Tripathi told the Assembly the photograph of Faiyaz “is a true picture” and it “reflects the real pain inflicted by the nefarious designs of Pakistan on India,” contrasting it with the fake picture used by Lodhi on Saturday while reacting to External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj.

The picture of the injured girl that Lodhi displayed was that of Rawya Abu Jom’a taken in July 2014 and published by The New York Times in March 2015 under the caption, “Conflict, Courage and Healing in Gaza,” Tripathi pointed out. Caught using a fake picture, a Pakistani diplomat made the bizarre statement that “backing up debates with pictures has backfired” on India while responding to Tripathi.

Tipu Usman, a Counselor at the Pakistani Mission, told the Assembly, “India is seeking to hide behind a picture.”

Asked at his daily briefing if the President of the General Assembly (PGA), Miroslav Lajcak could do anything about fake pictures being used at the Assembly as was done by Lodhi, his spokesperson Brian Varma said, “I don’t think the PGA has a role, but I will look into it.”

Tripathi help up both pictures and directed attention to the photograph of the Indian soldier and said, “This is a real picture and not a fake picture of Lt. Umar Faiyaz. A young officer from the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir, Umar Fiayz was kidnapped at a wedding reception. He was brutally tortured and killed by Pakistan-supported terrorists in May 2017.”

“This is a true picture,” she said. “It portrays a harsh reality. A picture of terror emanating from across our borders that the people of India, especially in the Jammu and Kashmir have to struggle with everyday.”

“This was the reality that the Permanent Representative of Pakistan sought to obfuscate,” Tripathi said.

– OE News Bureau

For decades after formal independence in 1947, Congress completely dominated the Indian political stage at the national and state levels. Until it was ousted in 1996, the party had held office continuously at the national level with the exception of two terms collectively expanding over three years. Today, the party is a shadow of its former self. Its claims to stand for the interests of the masses are in tatters and its bases of support are rapidly dwindling.

The Indian National Congress is a “sinking ship”; many of us have heard that by now. Yet it’s a bit astonishing to think how far the political party has fallen. After all, until recently the history of Congress ran almost in parallel with the history of modern India itself, to an extent where the line between these histories seemed blurred. Leaders of Congress were the leaders of India and a large part of the Indian Freedom Movement owed its existence to this “grand old party,” which was not just a political party, but an umbrella organization where different schools of thought used to co-exist together.

From Gandhi to Jinnah, from Nehru to Bose, from Tilak to Gokhale, Congress itself contained people poles apart from each other ideologically. And yet it not only remained as one party, but went on to define the political system itself in India, leading Dr. Rajani Kothari to coin the term “Congress System.” The organizational structure of Congress was so deep-rooted and entrenched that it reached to the grassroots level, to the last man, as a part of Gandhian idealism.

But Congress couldn’t uphold these ideals of working on the ground for as long as the people of India hoped it would. Much of Congress’ dominance at the centre as well as the state level was due to the fact that people voted in the name of Congress, which had won freedom for the country. People felt almost indebted to the party and continued to bring them back to power in the hope that Swarajya (self-rule) would actually be realized on the ground and the days of Ram Rajya (the idyllic rule of Rama), which Gandhi used to mention in his

speeches and writings, would come. People waited for years, but neither Swarajya nor Ram Rajya came about. Instead, the people realized, nepotism and corruption were increasing day by day in the political system. It was not Ram Rajya, but the Raaj of one family  the Gandhi family. The family alone accounts for three prime ministers, who ruled the country for around 37 years, while another 10 years of governance in the 21st century was also largely led by the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty.

Despite the challenges, Indira Gandhi, who was mockingly referred to as “Goongi Gudiya,” emerged as a strong and decisive leader, under whose leadership India won a decisive war against Pakistan in 1971. The war resulted in Congress reclaiming its place as the most dominant player in the Indian political system, so much so that its power became increasingly unchecked. In a democracy, a government with unchecked power is quite problematic.

India belatedly learned this lesson. At midnight on June 26, 1975, an emergency was proclaimed in the country by her government, thereby suspending all democratic rights of the people and concentrating all the power in the hands of Indira Gandhi. This was done to subvert the decision given against Indira Gandhi by the Allahabad High Court Bench in the case of fraudulent electoral practices in the 1971 elections. The emergency was the darkest period in India’s independent history. The government had become authoritarian; the opposition was decimated as most political opponents were put behind bars; the press was under extreme censorship.

The 21-month emergency proved to be costly for Congress. In the 1977 elections, for the first time, a non-Congress government was formed at the centre. Though, the new government, led by Morarji Desai, couldn’t stay in power for the full five years, the period was definitely a paradigm shift in Indian politics. Both people and political par- ties started believing that there could be an alternative to the Congress. However, it took another two decades after the Janata government for a non-Congress party (this time the BJP) to come to power and stay for a full five-year term.

In 2004, Congress made a come- back again in quite an astonishing fashion by defeating the incumbent BJP in power. Congress would spend the next decade fully in control of India’s central government. This decade, especially the second half, was marred by corruption. Telecom, railways, coal, land, sports, and various other ministries saw their names tarred under charges of corruption. Popular resentment against the regime grew prevalent among the public due to the increasing corruption within the government and the party’s inability to take any affirmative action against it. Then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was largely seen as a weak leader, who couldn’t take tough action against corrupt members within his party and government.

As a result, the party lost pathetically in the 2014 general elections, where it won only 44 seats in the Lok Sabha out of the 543 up for grabs — an all-time low. Since then, the party still hasn’t settled into a new role. It has been losing election after election across many states in India. The most notable recent loss came from Uttar Pradesh, the most populated state in India, where the party got just seven seats in an assembly of 403 seats.

Most political observers are of the opinion that Congress lacks a genuine mass leader, of which it used to have in dozens in its glory days. The vice president of the party, Rahul Gandhi, has been somewhat seen as a reluctant politician due to his lack of leadership skills and his inability to win elections. To sum up, the Congress has lost its sheen and doesn’t look to be in a position to even pose a challenge to the current BJP regime in the 2019 general elections. If they manage to do so, the party would be pulling a rabbit out of a hat!

Worryingly, the demise of Congress means the demise of a balanced political system in India. Congress and the BJP, the two most dominant powers, used to balance off each other in Indian politics. With this balance lost, the earlier Congress System is being replaced by a newly emergent “BJP System.”

In the upcoming elections, Congress is not expected to make any significant gains, despite growing hostility to the NDA government’s program of economic restructuring, which has led to a widening gulf between rich and poor. The failed demonetization decision of Modi government and poor GST implementation has dented the economic growth in India. The 2% GDP is wiped out due to faulty economic policies of the government. Despite this economic debacle, according to the London- based Economist magazine, even Congress party strategists say the maximum it can achieve is around 90-105 [seats] in 2019. The party could, however, do considerably worse. It is likely to be routed in state elections this year in Himanchal Pradesh, Gujrat & Karnataka, last few Congress ruled states except Gujrat.

Now, however, Congress is desperate for partners and in last election has accepted a subordinate status in several key states. In its alliance with the Rastriya Janatha Dal (RJD) in Bihar, Congress had to be satisfied with just four of the state’s 40 seats in the national parliament far less than the 14 it had demanded. Congress has also forged alliances in Andhra Pradesh, Maharasthra and Tamil Nadu. But in the most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, Congress is on ventilator seeking external life support from either Bahujan Samaj Party or Samajwadi Party to survive. Currently, Congress only holds two of the state’s 80 seats. In West Bengal, Mamta has virtually hijacked the original Congress party leaving nothing for the grand old party. Today Congress will be approaching General Elections 2019 without any presence in U.P. ( 80 seats ) Bihar ( 40 seats ), West Bengal ( 42 seats) T.N. ( 39 seats ) & A.P. ( 27 seats ), surely with almost 50% unrepresented seats, Congress can’t do miracle in rest of the seats to win with a conversion ration of 100%.

Nothing underscores the party’s bankruptcy more than its dependence on the Nehru- Gandhi dynasty. Not only has Sonja Gandhi, the Italian-born widow of assassinated prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, been pressed into leading the party, but her two children have also been enlisted in the campaign.

Her son Rahul is standing as the Congress candidate in the Uttar Pradesh seat of Amethi since 2004, in an effort to lift the party’s standing in that state. His sister Priyanka is also campaigning prominently in the seat.

The party’s tenuous links to the leaders of the anti-colonial movement Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru are all that remain of its claims to represent the interests of the working masses of India. Congress was always a party of the Indian bourgeoisie, which ensured that the vast movement against the British rule never threatened private property and became the means for securing its own privileged position. At the same time, through its leadership of the anti-colonial opposition, Congress established deep local roots and a reputation as a party of progressive change that enabled it to dominate the political stage after the end of the British rule

Congress’s ability to maintain its increasingly tarnished image was a product of the peculiar global economic and political conditions that followed World War II. Successive Indian governments were able to maintain a highly regulated national economy, based on import substitution, and make limited concessions to workers and the oppressed masses. In the context of the Cold War, Congress leaders were able to balance between Washington and Moscow, and with the assistance of the Stalinist bureaucrats, posture as anti-imperialists. India was one of the leaders of the so- called non-aligned movement.

However, in the 1980s and 1990s, the processes of globalization undermined all forms of national economic regulation the sharpest expression being the collapse of the Soviet Union. The impact was no less profound in India where, in the early 1990s, the Congress government of Prime Minister Narasimha Rao initiated the first stage of market reforms and opened up the country’s huge reserves of cheap labor to foreign investors. While a layer of business and the middle class benefited, the economic restructuring resulted in savage attacks on the living standards of the working class and op- pressed masses. The mounting resentment was the main reason for the party’s defeat in the 1996 elections.

No alternative to the BJP: While it capitalized on the disaffection with Congress, the BJP has implemented the same programme of restructuring since 1998. Foreign investors have exploited India’s supplies of low-cost, educated, English-speaking labor to create a range of computing, research and office services, and produce a spurt of growth that has benefited layers of the Indian middle class. The BJP election campaign in 2004 has centered on a government-funded “India Shining”media blitz designed to portray the party as bringing India economic growth and international recognition.

The slick media campaign glosses over the fact that the government’s economic policies have led to a widening of the deep social divide between the rich and the vast majority of the population who remain mired in poverty. In seeking to attack the BJP’s record, Congress faces a fundamental problem: its policies are no different from those of the government. As a result, its campaign is fraught with contradictions: Congress attempts to convince big business of its ability to continue the open market agenda, while trying to dupe the masses with empty promises to improve their living standards.

– By Prakhar Prakash Misra (Political Editor, Opinion Express)

Mother Earth is facing its acutest phase of a ‘forced metamorphosis’ due to a human propelled climate change

Rains battering Mumbai and devastating lives and livelihoods have raised a local administrative quandary but also have addressed a global one too. The weather catastrophes around the world have been wreaking havoc on mankind. While category 3+ storms continue to pound the Caribbean and East coast of the US, droughts have ravaged Australia- here at home an estimated 10 million have been adversely effected by the floods and incessant rains in central and North East India and landslides devastate the hilly states of Uttarakhand, Himachal and J and K. Painful as this grim scenario is, what makes it even more excruciating is attitude of the policy makers world wide which is palpably myopic and disastrous when it comes to planning and execution. Mother Earth is facing its acutest phase of a ‘forced metamorphosis’ due to a human propelled climate change. The environment and the atmosphere have been altered critically to the point of no return and due to that the weather anomalies will continue to get severe each passing day. Mankind and all life forms will face the flak of these disruptions. The solution to this diabolical predicament has come in form of a feeble symptomatic response by mankind, which seems to be satisfactory only in digits but a disaster on ground.

We need a paradigm shift in our concept of development a migration from the current anthropocentric model to an all encompassing and holistic one which treats the Earth and nature as living entities. Secondly Eco sensitive zones should be identified across the globe and recognized as international heritages, and a no tolerance for human interruption policy should be followed in this zone. For example the higher zones of Himalayas, which are not only a magnet for the monsoon and thus control the weather of the entire subcontinent, but also are the fountain head of the rivers that nourish close to 1 billion people should be declared a zone for no massive constructions. Thirdly a joint Eco task force for the protection of the environment should be established by all nations, with more teeth to this force than what the current conventions on climate change impart, because as per experts by 2025 the world would have more than a billion climate refugees.

Lastly and most importantly a holistic environment education should be made compulsory in the schools, where the value of interconnections present in the web of life and how to protect and preserve it must be taught to the future generations .

 – By Deana Uppal ((Writer is an Indo- British Model & Entrepreneur))

India remains Pakistan’s primary target

Today, India is ringed by turbulent states – Pakistan (land boundary with India 3,310 km in the north west), Nepal (land boundary with India 1,751 km in the north), Bangladesh (land boundary with India 4,095 km in the south- east) and Myanmar (land boundary with India 1,463 km in the north east).

Turbulence has percolated through India’s porous borders in the form of arms and narcotics to finance insurgents, militants, terrorists and religious fundamentalists.

India remains Pakistan’s primary target and operating ground for Islamic fundamentalists and terrorist groups who infiltrate through Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), Nepal and Bangladesh and carry out anti-Indian activities with impunity.

Nepal is vulnerable to China’s influence. Its extremists have linkages with the People’s War Group in India. In its bid to expand its influence, the PWG has carved a corridor ringing the states of Andhra Pradesh-Madhya Pradesh-Chhattisgarh-Orissa- West Bengal-Jharkhand-Bihar.

This endless internal turbulence in India is also inter-linked with external factors. To the north, India shares a 3,440-km long border with China, which can pose the entire spectrum of conventional, nuclear and missile threats. It can also influence and use as proxy India’s neighbors to weigh India down in every possible way.

In short, India’s 14,058-km long land frontier is impacted by a perpetually hostile or semi-hostile environment. Indian security stands threatened by demographic assault, arms and drug smuggling, and the safe havens that the insurgents have in  Fundamentalist-religious groups in Bangladesh under Pakistani tutelage, West Asian finance and China’s patronage have synergized sufficiently to add to India?s security headache. The grim reality is that the unending turbulence will continue to afflict our land and sea frontiers and airspace.

AVERAGE INDIAN IS HIGHLY INDIVIDUALISTIC

By nature, the average Indian is highly individualistic and an entrepreneur. In every endeavor, his calculation is simply based on, “What’s in it for me?” He does not have the time or the inclination to actively get involved with the intricacies of the nation’s security.

This kind of entrepreneurial society requires a steel frame of military, naval and air power to ensure that India’s accommodative temperament and societal characteristic of gentleness remains protected from the turbulent violence that as- Field Marshal Wavell who was India’s British Viceroy in 1946, was prophetic when he said “… the stability of the Indian Army may perhaps be a deciding factor in the future of India.”

MANPOWER SHORTAGE MUST BE REMOVED SPEEDILY

For a number of reasons, and despite considerable efforts, the armed forces remain short of the manpower they need. It is imperative that this manpower shortage be removed speedily before the system buckles under the ageing profile of its leadership.

There is only one viable strategy to attract the kind of talent that is needed and that is to assure military personnel of assured lateral induction into the paramilitary and police forces, the intelligence services and the civil administration.

Unfortunately, a consensus has not been achieved that “lateral induction” is the best way to attract India’s young but savvy population to the tough profession of arms where risk to faults the values of our democratic polity.

INDIA’S ARMED FORCES

On attaining Independence in 1947, India inherited possibly the best instrument of war in Asia a fine battle ready military machine with a formidable reputation of winning wars in distant lands. Britain had employed it skillfully for over a century to sustain her empire and treasured it as the jewel in its crown.

In the years after Independence, India’s Army has been unending deployed for internal policing tasks to cope with the complex security situation. This deployment has kept the Union of India physically intact. But it is sad that 60 years after Independence, the stability of India still depends directly on the stability of the Indian Army.

life is an everyday affair. Major benefits will accrue from lateral induction. First, the transfer of highly disciplined, trained and skilled manpower to the civil setup will contribute towards the creation of a ‘discipline culture’ the country. Second, the superior training standards of lateral inductees will aid civil and paramilitary forces in combating terrorism and internal violence. However, placing a large segment of a young Army on the land borders cannot entirely ensure security of India. There are two aspects to it.

First, if a football team defends only its half of the field, it is certain that an adversary determined to create mischief, short of going to war, will create opportunities for its irregular forces (jihadis) to score goals through infiltration, smuggling and creeping invasion. The hostile environment that impacts India’s long frontiers re- quires that the role of military power to defend strategic frontiers must be firmly embedded in India’s foreign policy. The second aspect is the need for political will to project the power of Armed Forces beyond the Indian subcontinent to se- cure the sea-lanes for external trade and ensure the security of imported energy supplies.

INDIA NEEDS A RUTHLESS WINNING ATTITUDE

India’s geostrategic location with its 7,500 km-long peninsular coastline jutting into the Indian Ocean makes India a continental as well as a maritime power.?India impacts directly on East, West and Central Asia. As a rising economic power dependent almost entirely on foreign energy supplies, a time may come when India has to project its military power to protect and preserve the energy resources from Central and West Asia, and Africa.

For India, with its pacifist temperament, this may sound imperial. But without a ruthless winning attitude, India’s multi-religious and multi-cultural society cannot survive endless undermining by disaffected elements. The world has already recognized that with its democratic institutions, its liberal philosophy and its unique strategic location, India’s influence will extend beyond South Asia and directly affect Asia’s well being.

DOVETAILING FOREIGN-ECONOMIC- MILITARY OBJECTIVES?

A Nations foreign policy is dependent primarily on the strength of its economic and military power. The ability and the will to wield military power ruthlessly, to defend and advance national interests, when combined with the capacity and resolve to create wealth, constitute the proven route for every aspirant seeking recognition as an eminent power.

India has the potential and the prerequisites of becoming a great power within the next few decades, provided it can dovetail its foreign, economic and military objectives and mainstream its military power. The crucial question is whether India will be a surrogate power or be a ‘great power’?

INDIA’S FREE MEDIA CAN BE INTELLIGENTLY HARNESSED

Ostensibly our national objectives are to have a peaceful neighborhood. What should be the strategy to achieve it? Statements like a “stable and secure neighbors are in India’s interest” are well meant. The fundamental question, however, is – “Will India’s neighbors ever be stable and secure?” Appeasement of neighbors cannot constitute a strategy for any country.

India’s larger objective in Asia is to emerge as a geoeconomic hub that can integrate and influence its extended neighborhood through mutually beneficial economic linkages and military relationships. As a benevolent power that has no external territorial interests, India is uniquely located — geographically and culturally to play this role effectively. India’s free media can be intelligently harnessed to further these national objectives and develop the complementarities that influence Asia.

To attain eminence in Asia, India needs to move simultaneously on three axes. These are India-West Asia, India-Southeast Asia and India-Central Asia. Of these, the critical one is the India- Afghanistan-Iran-Russia axis. Today, Russia is reacting firmly to intruders into its neighborhood. Her economic and military resurgence presents an opportunity for a relationship which would lend stability to the region. Moreover, as the second largest consumer of oil and gas in Asia, the assurance of uninterrupted energy supplies is a vital factor in India’s security calculus. By 2010, a substantial amount of oil and gas will be sourced from Central Asia

INDIA’S ‘NEAR ABROAD’ IS UNDER TURMOIL

This resource-rich region will succumb to fundamentalist-religious Talibanisation if India and like- minded countries do not preempt it. In such an eventuality, American oil corporations will be expelled, particularly with the Chinese gaining ground and occupying positions that could dictate the future agenda in Central Asia. It is therefore timely for American capitalists to join hands with Indian counterparts in joint ventures.

CREATE MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL INTERNATIONAL ALLIANCES         

India’s ‘near abroad’ is under unprecedented turmoil. Pakistan is almost split into two states. The Pakistan Army controls one par t and the other it ceded to Radical Islam. Pakistan Army appears to be under retreat. In Bangladesh the war between Pakistan backed radical Islam threatens to undermine the present regime. Maoists in Nepal look up to China. Beijing successfully out manoeuvred New Delhi’s influence in latter’s back- yard. These regimes being authoritarian in one way or the other have more in common amongst themselves than a multi-cultural democratic India.

They are also technology deficit regressive states. Therefore, to preserve its values, India needs to create an international alliance with like minded technologically surplus ‘far abroad’ to out manoeuver the inimical intentions of the ‘near abroad’.?The international community, including Russia in near future, will be compelled to wage the next Great War against forces of Radical Islam threatening the world at large. As the core of jihad is located in a State wielding nuclear weapons, the evolving scenario appears to be more threatening than witnessed during Nazi Germany. New Delhi’s support in the looming next Great War will be a critical element for swift victory for democracies and others. India’s strategy must be to strengthen existing friendly relationships while decisively cementing mutually advantageous new relationships in the favorable geopolitical scenario now emerging.

– Bharat Verma  (The columnist is the Editor of the Indian Defense Review )

When seeking to place an attack like the April 15 Boston Marathon bombing into context, it is helpful to classify the actors responsible, if possible. Such a classification can help us understand how an attack fits into the analytical narrative of what is happening and what is likely to come. These classifications will consider such factors as ideology, state sponsorship and perhaps most important, the kind of operative involved.

In a case where we are dealing with an apparent jihadist operative, before we can classify him or her we must first have a clear taxonomy of the jihadist movement. At Stratify, we generally consider the jihadist movement to be divided into three basic elements: the AL Qaeda core organization, the regional jihadist franchises, such alas Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and grass roots operatives who are radicalized, inspired and perhaps equipped by the other two tiers but who are not members of either.

Within the three tier jihadist movement there exist two distinct types of operatives. One of these is the professional terrorist operative, a person who is a member of the AL Qaeda core or of one of the regional franchises. These individuals swear loyalty to the leader and then follow orders from the organization’s hierarchy. Second, there are amateur operatives who never join a group and whose actions are not guided by the specific orders of a hierarchical group. They follow a bottom-up or grassroots organizational model rather than a hierarchical or top-down approach.

There is a great deal of variety among professional terrorists, especially if we break them down according to the functions they perform within an organization, roles including that of planners, finance and logistics specialists, couriers, surveillance operatives, bomb makers, etcetera. There is also a great deal of variety within the ranks of grassroots operatives, although it is broken down more by their interaction with formal groups rather than their function. At one end of the grassroots spectrum are the lone wolf operatives, or phantom cells.

These are individuals or small groups who become radicalized by jihadist ideology, but who do not have any contact with the organization. In theory, the lone wolf/phantom cell model is very secure from an operational security standpoint, but as we’ve discussed, it takes a very disciplined and driven individual to be a true lone wolf or phantom cell leader, and consequently, we see very few of them.

At the other end of the grassroots spectrum are individuals who have had close interaction with a jihadist group but who never actually joined the organization. Many of them have even attended militant training camps, but they didn’t become part of the hierarchical group to the point of swearing an oath of allegiance to the group’s leaders and taking orders from the organization. They are not funded and directed by the group.

Indeed, al Qaeda trained tens of thousands of men in its training camps in Afghanistan, Sudan and Pakistan but very few of the men they trained actually ended up joining al Qaeda. Most of the men the group instructed received basic military training in things like using small arms, hand-to-hand combat and basic fire and maneuver. Only the very best from those basic combat training courses were selected to receive advanced training in terrorist tradecraft techniques, such as bomb- making, surveillance, clandestine communications and document forgery. But even of the students who received advanced training in terrorist trade- craft, only a few were ever invited to join the al Qaeda core, which remained a relatively small vanguard organization.

Many of the men who received basic training traveled to fight jihad in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Chechnya or returned home to join insurgent or militant groups. Others would eventually end up joining al Qaeda franchise groups in places like Yemen, Iraq, Libya and Algeria. Still others received some basic training but then returned home and never really put their new skills into practice.

Most grassroots jihadists fall along a continuum that stretches between the lone wolf and someone who received advanced terrorist training but never joined al Qaeda or another formal militant group.

Whether the two men suspected of carrying out the April 15 Boston Marathon attack knowingly followed al Qaeda’s blueprint for simple attacks by grassroots actors, their actions were fairly consistent with what we have come to expect from such operatives. Certainly based upon what we have seen of this case so far, the Tsarnaev brothers did not appear to possess sophisticated terrorist trade craft.

For example, regarding the bombs employed in the attack and during the police chase, everything we have seen still points to very simple devices, such as pipe bombs and pressure cooker devices. From a bomb making trade craft standpoint, we have yet to see anything that could not be fabricated by reading Inspire magazine, spending a little bit of time on YouTube and conducting some experimentation. As a comparison, consider the far larger and more complex improvised explosive device Anders Behring Breivik, the Oslo bomber, constructed. We know from Breivik’s detailed journal that he was a self taught bomb maker using directions he obtained on the Internet. He was also a lone wolf. And yet he was able to construct a very large improvised explosive device.? Also, although the Tsarnaev brothers did not hold up a convenience store as initially reported, they did conduct an express kidnapping that caused them to have extended contact with their victim while they visited automatic teller machines. They told the victim that they were the bombers and then allowed the victim to live. Such behavior is hardly typical of professional terrorist operatives.

Grassroots Theory As it has become more difficult for professional terrorists to travel to the United States and the West in general, it has become more difficult for jihadist organizations to conduct attacks in these places. Indeed, this difficulty prompted groups like al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to attempt to attack the United States by dispatching an operative with an underwear bomb and to use printer cartridge bombs to attack cargo aircraft. In response to this difficulty, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula began to adopt the grassroots into their operational doctrine. They first began promoting this approach in 2009 in their Arabic-language magazine Sada al-Malahim. The al Qaeda core organization embraced this approach in May 2010 in an English-language video featuring Adam Gadahn.

In July 2010, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula launched an English language magazine called Inspire dedicated to radicalizing and equipping grassroots jihadists. Despite the losses that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has experienced on the battlefield, it has continued to devote a great deal of its limited resources toward propagating this concept. It has continued to publish Inspire even after the magazine’s founder and editor, Samir Khan, was killed in an American missile strike in Yemen.

The grassroots strategy was perhaps most clearly articulated in the third edition of Inspire magazine, which was published in November 2010 following the failed October 29, 2010, printer bomb operation. In a letter from the editor in which Khan explained what he referred to as “Operation Hemorrhage,” he wrote:

“However, to bring down America we do not need to strike big. In such an environment of security phobia that is sweeping America, it is more feasible to stage smaller attacks that involve fewer players and less time to launch and thus we may circumvent the security barriers America has worked so hard to erect. This strategy of attacking the enemy with smaller, but more frequent operations is what some may refer to the strategy of a thousand cuts. The aim is to bleed the enemy to death.”

In Adam Gadahn’s May 2010 message entitled “A Call to Arms,” Gadahn counsels lone wolf jihadists to follow a three pronged target selection process. They should choose a target with which they are well acquainted, a target that is feasible to hit and a target that, when struck, will have a major impact. The Tsarnaev brothers did all three in Boston.Implications

Yet despite this clearly articulated theory, it has proved very difficult for jihadist ideologues to convince grassroots operatives to conduct simple attacks using readily available items like in the “build a bomb in the kitchen of your mom” approach, which they have advocated for so long.

This is because most grassroots jihadists have sought to conduct huge, spectacular attacks attacks that are outside of their capabilities. This has meant that they have had to search for help to conduct their plans. And that search for help has resulted in their arrest, just as Adam Gadahn warned they would be in his May 2010 message.

There were many plots disrupted in 2012 in which grassroots operatives tried to act beyond their capabilities. These include:

• On Nov. 29, 2012, two brothers from Florida, Raees Alam Qazi and Sheheryar Alam Qazi, were arrested and charged with plotting attacks in New York.
• On Oct. 17, 2012, Bangladeshi national Quazi Nafis was arrested as part of an FBI sting operation after he attempted to detonate a vehicle bomb outside New York’s Federal Reserve Bank.
• On Sept. 15, 2012, Adel Daoud was arrested after he parked a Jeep Cherokee outside a Chicago bar and attempted to detonate the bomb he thought it contained. This was also an FBI sting operation.

But the carnage and terrorist theater caused by the Boston attack have shown how following the simple attack model can be highly effective. This will certainly be pointed out in future editions of Inspire magazine, and grassroots operatives will be urged to follow the model established by the Tsarnaev brothers. Unlike operatives like Faisal Shahzad who attempted to go big themselves and failed, the brothers followed the blueprint for a simple attack and the model worked.

It is quite possible that the success of the Boston bombing will help jihadist ideologues finally convince grassroots operatives to get past their grandiose plans and begin to follow the simple attack model in earnest. If this happens, it will obviously have a big impact on law enforcement and intelligence officials who have developed very effective programs of identifying grassroots operatives and drawing them into sting operations. They will now have to adjust their operations.

While these grassroots actors do not have the capability of professional terrorist operatives and do not pose as severe a threat, they pose a much broader, amorphous threat. Law enforcement and intelligence agencies generally do not deal well with ambiguity.

There are simply too many soft targets to protect and some of these simple attacks will inevitably succeed. This means that this low-level broad threat will persist and perhaps even intensify in the immediate future.

As we’ve previously discussed, the best defense against the grassroots threat are grassroots defenders. These include the police and alert citizens who report suspicious activity — like people testing bomb designs a frequent occurrence before actual bomb attacks. The slogan “If you see something, say something,” has been mocked as overly simplistic, but it is nonetheless a necessity in an environment where the broad, ambiguous threat of grassroots terrorism far outstrips the ability of the authorities to see everything. Taking a proactive approach to personal and collective security also beats the alternative of living in terror and apprehensively waiting for the next simple attack.

It is also very important for people to maintain the proper perspective on terrorism. Like car crashes and cancer and natural disasters, terrorism is part of the human condition. People should take prudent, measured actions to prepare for such contingencies and avoid becoming victims (vicarious or other- wise). It is the resilience of the population and its perseverance that will ultimately determine how much a terrorist attack is allowed to terrorize. By separating terror from terrorism, citizens can deny the practitioners of terror the ability to magnify their reach and power.

(Vice President of Analysis)

Pushed out from their country, Rohingyas’ arrival put India in a dilemma

On a day Prime Minister Narendra Modi began his official visit to Myanmar, human rights organisation Amnesty International urged him to push the country’s leadership to provide assistance to Rohingyas in the violence-hit Rakhine state. The rights body also said the Modi government should “reaffirm” its commitment to protect Rohingya refugees and asylum-seekers in India instead of “threatening” them with deportation.

“Prime Minister Modi must also use his visit to push the Myanmar authorities to allow full and unfettered humanitarian assistance to people in need. Nothing can justify denying life-saving aid to desperate people,” Aakar Patel, Executive Director at Amnesty International India, said.

The Amnesty’s plea came on a day Union Minister Kiren Rijiju asserted that Rohingyas who have crossed over to India are illegal immigrants and stand to be deported. He also said that nobody should preach India on the is- sue as the country has absorbed the maximum number of refugees in the world. Around 40,000 Rohingyas are said to be staying illegally in India. Modi reached Nay Pyi Taw today on a three- day visit and called on Myanmar President Htin Kyaw.

The prime minister’s visit to Myanmar comes amid a spike in ethnic violence with Rohingya Muslims in the Rakhine state. The number of Rohingya refugees that have fled to Bangladesh to escape violence in Myanmar, which flared up late last month, has touched 1,23,000, according to the UN refugee agency. The Amnesty observed that despite being home to thousands of refugees, India is not a state party to the 1951 Refugee Convention or the 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees, and does not have a domestic legal refugee protection framework.

 – OE News Bureau