Houston: Oil prices tumbled below $50 a barrel Monday, spooking global financial markets and signaling that the remarkable 50 per cent price drop since June was continuing this year and even quickening.

The new drop in U.S. and global benchmarks of more than 4 percent was accompanied by a series of reports of increased Middle Eastern oil exports; continuing increases in U.S. production despite planned exploration cutbacks by many oil companies; and renewed worries about the declining economic fortunes of Europe.

The plunge once again sent jitters through global markets. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 331 points, or 1.86 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, a broader benchmark, fell 37.62 points, or 1.83 percent. And the Vix, a measure of market volatility that is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, leaped by around 12 percent.

In response, investors sought safety in government bonds around the world. As bond prices rose, the yield on the 10- year Treasury note fell to 2.04 percent on Monday.

The decline in oil was not the only source of concern in the markets. Worries about Greece’s ability to stay in the euro-zone have reasserted them- selves in recent days, for instance. The dollar continued its surge against the euro on Monday.

Still, as the oil price decline has continued, investors have increasingly seen it as a bad omen for the global economy. The drop may point to lower demand for oil and lower economic activity. And the decline suggests that policymakers have not managed to deal with the threat of deflation, or falling prices.

“There is certainly a deflationary mindset in the market,” said Jim Vogel, a debt markets strategist for FTN Financial, “and as we enter 2015, it’s beginning to nag some people that there could be a deflationary component to the economy.”

Leading the way is oil

“It is a very shaky start for the oil market,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for Oil Price Information Service. “The norm is a lot of money comes into commodity index funds at the beginning of the year, and that can create a market rally. Today, instead of new money coming into oil, you got some more old money going out of oil.”

West Texas Intermediate crude dipped below $50 a barrel briefly Monday before recovering. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell to about $53 a barrel.

The drop in prices has led to a rising tide of oil company announcements in recent days of investment cuts for the coming months. Ensign Energy Services, a Canadian drilling contractor, reported that it would be laying off 700 workers, or roughly 10 percent of its workforce, in California fields.

Several Texas based companies that have borrowed heavily in recent years to produce in new Texas and North Dakota shale fields are expected to announce steep investment and job cuts in the coming days.

Consumers continued to benefit from the oil price collapse, with the AAA auto club reporting Monday that the average national price for regular gasoline had fallen to $2.20 a gallon, 8 cents lower than a week ago, 51 cents lower than a month ago, and $1.11 below a year ago.

Energy experts say American families are likely to have as much as $115 billion more in disposable income in 2015 than last year because of lower gasoline prices alone. Additional benefits should come from drops in heating oil and diesel prices.

The last time oil and gasoline prices fell this low was in the wake of the 2008-09 financial collapse, when crude oil fell from well over $100 to below $40 a barrel in a matter of months. Energy analysts say the current price slump is of an entirely different nature, based primarily on a glut of oil being produced in the United States, along with increased production in Canada, Iraq and a handful of other countries.

While in the past the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has sometimes agreed to cut back production to shore up prices, Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf producers have decided to protect their global market share by cutting prices in the United States and Asian markets while increasing production somewhat.

In a recent interview with Middle East Petroleum and Economic Publications, based in Cyprus, the Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, indicated his country would remain steadfast rather than cut production anytime soon.

“If I reduce, what happens to my market share?” alNaimi said. “The price will go up and the Russians, the Brazilians, U.S. shale oil producers will take my share.”

Adding further pressure to prices is the weakening demand for oil and petroleum products in Europe and developing nations. That weakness is compounded as increasingly efficient vehicles come onto the market and China seeks to reduce the oil depend- ency of its economy.

There is little reason to believe any of those trends will change until midyear at the earliest, energy experts say. According to Simmons & Co., based in Houston, the 93 million barrel a day global market will continue to be over- supplied by at least 1 million barrels a day during the first half of 2015.

“It might be the dead of winter, but it looks as though markets will confront considerably more downside risk in the months ahead,” according to a Citi Research report released Sunday night, “and it will likely take well into the year before prices will bottom, let alone achieve a new equilibrium.”

Citi says it is most probable that the oil market will stabilize by the end of 2015, with the Brent price averaging $63 a barrel for the year – several dollars above the current price. But its more bearish forecast, with a 30 per- cent probability, is for Brent to average $55 for the year, roughly the current price.

A number of signs suggest that oil and oil product supplies will soon be increasing. The ramping up of several refineries in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is likely to increase exports of products like gaso- line and diesel by 500,000 barrels a day in the coming months. Even without the Keystone XL pipeline, other Canadian pipelines coming online will bring as much as 350,000 more barrels onto the market.

Citi has projected that global investments in oil exploration and production will decline up to 15 percent this year, but U.S. companies continue to produce more efficiently.

Rystad Energy, a Norwegian global consulting firm, issued a report on Monday saying that the average break- even price for the principal shale fields in the United States had dropped to $58 a barrel, with the core areas of some fields remaining economical to produce at $50.

Oil-producing states are expected to suffer economically from the oil price drop, although the top oil-producing state, Texas, has worked hard to diversify its economy after the price bust of the 1980s. With a projected $3.5 billion budget deficit, Alaska has already announced a delay in six important infrastructure projects, including a gas pipeline from the North Slope.

© 2015 New York Times News Service

Sitaram Kesri bless his troubled soul, from his vantage point in..errr…heaven (?) is surely laughing at Sonia Gandhi’s predicament. If party stalwarts of the Indira Rajivera Pranab Mukherjee, Sharad Pawar and Jitendra Prasad,frightened by the prospect of political wilderness under Sitaram Kesri’s inept leadership, or worse, having to see one of them ascend to the throne, made common cause with Sonia Gandhi’s domestic minion Vincent George to plot and execute poor Sitaram Kesri’s humiliating eviction in 1996, the new breed of empire loyalists  Anand Sharma, Ajay Maken, Digvijay Singh and Abhishek Manu Singhvi have been let loose by Sonia Gandhi on Jayanthi Natarajan. In 1996, Sonia Gandhi’s path was speedily cleared of all thorns and threats; we can be sure she will do the same for her son now. Rajesh Pilot and Madhav Rao Scindia’s untimely deaths were fortuitous for the new regime;

Pranab Mukherjee persisted with the empire loyalist mask until he was elevated to the Rashtrapati Bhavan; Jitendra Prasada died unexpectedly in the midst of his hectic anti Sonia Gandhi campaign while wily Sharad Pawar distanced himself far enough from Sonia Gandhi to do his own thing but not too far away that he could not carve out a political niche for himself within the erstwhile Indian Nouveau Roman Empire. G Karuppaiah Moopanar alone, also of the old guard resigned from the Congress when Narasimha Rao was Prime Minister in protest against the Congress’ decision to ally with the AIADMK; he refused ministerial posts in the Indira Rajiv governments, refused to become Prime Minister after the Deve Gowda government fell; instead, being a proud man, GK Moopanar moved to Chennai to start Tamil Manila Congress or the TMC.

Jayanthi Natarajan was confronting a determined usurper and even if this is simply a case of thieves falling out, we must hand it to Jayanthi Natarajan for refusing to turn over meekly like Sitaram Kesri and play dead. Jayanthi Natarajan, until yesterday an empire loyalist, hit back at the Roman Empire by going public with a letter she wrote to Sonia Gandhi on 5 November 2014 with the clear message, “if I go down for corruption, I take your son (and you by implication) down with me”.

If Sonia Gandhi in her manic ambition to rule a country and a people not her own had no qualms about letting her thugs lock up the elderly Sitaram Kesri in the bathroom to usurp the Congress president chair, she has even less qualms now about throwing Jayanthi Natarajan to the lions in the Colosseum. How Sonia Gandhi deals with this threat remains to be seen; but given her past success in removing all thorns from her path, Jayanthi Natarajan may still be neutralized. It is just as likely that woman to woman, Jayanthi Natarajan may yet prove to be Sonia’s Nemesis. “If pushed to a corner”, declared a grim-faced Jayanthi Natarajan on Times Now, “I will not hesitate to make public all communications between me and Rahul Gandhi’s office. I can assure you, I can take care of myself”.

Regional satraps should not break the Delhi glass ceiling Sitaram Kesri from his vantage seat up above has another reason to laugh too. The Gandhi glue is melting and the Congress is coming unstuck now in the exact same manner it came unstuck after Rajiv Gandhi’s death. First to cry ‘nay’ was Jaganmohan Reddy, son of Sonia Gandhi loyalist and now deceased “Samuel” Rajasekhara Reddy, Seventh Day Adventist Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh.

When “Samuel” Rajasekhara Reddy died an untimely and wholly unexpected death (another one in the Congress) in a helicopter crash in September 2009, his son Jaganmohan Reddy, to keep his father’s little fiefdom intact for himself and his family, announced his plan to undertake “odarpu yatra” or a condolence yatra, across Andhra Pradesh to cash in on his father’s death and strengthen his own position within the party and the state leadership.

Sensing new danger, Sonia Gandhi refused permission to Jaganmohan Reddy to undertake the condolence yatra. Needless to say Jaganmohan Reddy was sitting on mountains of ill gotten wealth which he was not prepared to share with New Delhi and therefore did not need Sonia Gandhi to become a power centre in his own right in Andhra Pradesh. Refusing to play second fiddle to the Delhi dynasty and cock secure of his late father’s money- powered clout in Andhra Pradesh, Jaganmohan Reddy quit the Congress to do his own thing.

He and his mother took charge of YSR Congress, a political outfit founded by one Siva Kumar, a Samuel Reddy loy- alist. Jaganmohan Reddy’s resignation from Sonia Gandhi’s Congress and his rapid rise in Andhra Pradesh politics inflicted a deadly blow to the state Congress which was kept afloat only by the continuing pre-eminence of Sonia Gandhi in New Delhi. Just so Jagan Reddy and all other “sons” posing a threat to her own son’s right to be heir, got the message that power and all benefits of power must be disclosed and shared with New Delhi, Sonia Gandhi unleashed the CBI against Jagan Reddy. Jagan Reddy, his father’s slavish loyalty to Sonia Gandhi counting for nothing was arrested for disproportionate assets under the Prevention of Corruption Act and lodged in jail. Sonia Gandhi and her CBI kept Jagan Reddy in jail from May 2012 to September 2013 like they kept Kanimozhi, the daughter of another ambitious regional satrap who was also arrested by the CBI in the 2G Spectrum case and spent six months in jail from May 2011 till 29 November, 2011.

The next to cry foul and quit the Congress was GK Vasan. Few remember that in total contradiction to his late father’s reason to resign from the Congress, GK Vasan, after GK Moopanar’s death in August 2001, swallowed his father’s pride, buried his father’s proud legacy and merged TMC with Sonia’s Congress in 2002. After Sonia Congress’ comprehensive drubbing in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when she and Rahul Gandhi refused to step down as President and Vice President of the party, and when Sonia Gandhi and her son continued with dynasty political-business-as- usual, sending the strong signal that regional satraps should remain con- fined to their regions and should not attempt to knock down the Delhi glass ceiling, GK Vasan too quit Sonia’s Congress in November 2014.

The similarities between how Sonia Gandhi dealt with Jaganmohan Reddy and GK Vasan are too obvious to be missed. Jaganmohan Reddy wanted to strengthen the state Congress (and himself in the process) using his father’s name. GK Vasan too wanted to strengthen the TN Congress (and himself in the process) after the Congress lost the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, by launching a membership drive with the pictures of GK Moopanar and K Kamraj on the membership card instead of pictures of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. Sensing the same danger, Sonia Gandhi expelled GK Vasan from the Congress.

In all the noise over Jayanthi Natarajan’s resignation and the cacophony from the hounds of war let loose by Sonia Gandhi to mount a no holds barred attack against Jayanthi Natarajan, P Chidambaram has become conspicuous by his silence on the issue considering he and Jayanthi Natarajan are old friends and colleagues from the same state and practicing the same profession. However, as if to make up for his father’s silence, Karti Chidambaram, incidentally Kanimozhi’s good friend, has begun to voice murmurs of discontent. On the 22 January, Karti Chidambaram convened a meeting of all his father’s loyalists over lunch where he and his supporters were supposed to have expressed serious discontent with the party high command.

Karti Chidambaram was served with a show cause notice by the Pradesh Congress President. That situation is developing yet. It is now clear that sons of regional satraps are not willing to stand waiting at the kitchen doors while Sonia Gandhi and her son continue to sit at the Congress high table. L’affaire Jayanthi Natarajan: Going beyond the cacophony

What Sonia and Rahul Gandhi are doing to Jayanthi Natarajan must be placed against this background. It speaks volumes for Sonia Gandhi’s unmatched talent for bribing, buying and silencing dissent that while her ministers were accused of corruption and went to jail or were expelled from the party, she and her family, including her son and son-in-law were never found guilty, were not held to account and have not spent a single day or night in jail. Not even in Modi Sarkar’s times.

The case against Jayanthi Natarajan is two fold. She sat on files and she moved files to Chennai. As a good friend put it caustically, Jayanthi Natarajan’s corruption falls under two broad categories – positive corruption and negative corruption. Positive corruption is you pay me money, I will clear your files. Negative corruption is  you don’t pay me money, I won’t clear your files. The high points of the case:

1. Jayanthi Natarajan sat on several files, the most prominent among them being Lavasa, Vedanta, Nirma Cement, Adani projects and GVK power project.
2. Jayanthi Natarajan was summoned by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to his office on 20 December 2013 and asked to put in her resignation papers.
3. Manmohan Singh tells her, he is not demanding her resignation but Sonia Gandhi wants her to step down to focus on party work in preparation for the coming general elections.
4. Jayanthi Natarajan, a self proclaimed Gandhi family loyalist,steps down promptly.
5. The next day, on 21 December, Rahul Gandhi addresses CEOs and industrialists at a FICCI event where he says that now all bottlenecks with regard to environmental clearances have been removed (meaning with Jayanthi Natarjan’s resignation) and that all stalled projects will now be given speedy clearances so that they may begin work.
6. Jayanthi Natarajan says all the stalled projects were stalled and environmental clearances not given at the express instructions and directives from Rahul Gandhi.
7. Jayanthi is also stripped of her position as Congress spokesperson and she is left alone in political wilderness.
8. Within days of GK Vasan quitting the Congress party expelled from the Congress party (depends on who is saying it) Jayanthi Natarajan writes a tearful and plaintive letter to Sonia Gandhi- the contents of said letter already in the public domain.
9. The question now is – why did Jayanthi Natarajan wait for two months before she went public with all the sordid details? And why did she go public just on the eve of Delhi state elections?

Not Jayanti Tax but Sonia Tax

What we should not forget is that Narendra Modi considered Jayanthi Natarajan to be corrupt when he referred to “Jayanthi Tax” in one of his election speeches. Be it as that maybe. But Jayanthi Natarajan has now quit the Congress not because she had a con- science but she, like Jaganmohan Reddy refused to pay Sonia Tax.

Sonia Gandhi gave all her men and women the freedom to practice corruption with two riders that they do not rock her throne and not question her choice of heir apparent, and that they pay Sonia Tax from the bounty they scalp from the rich and the poor alike. When Rahul Gandhi issued directives to Jayanthi Natarajan not to clear some projects, he was guilty of negative corruption; when at the FICCI meeting of industrialists he told India Inc. that their projects would now be cleared, he was guilty of positive corruption because the new Minister of State was prepared to pay Sonia Tax.

Jayanti Natarajan didn’t and suffered for it. And now she’s having her payback time.

-BY RADHA RAJAN

Nandini Voice For The Deprived, a Chennai based NGO , organized a debate for school and college students on 24th January,2015 at Chennai on “How to make the clean India campaign successful?”

The objective of organizing the debate was to give an opportunity to the students to provide their views and recommendations that would benefit the country and the government.

A number of school and college students in Chennai participated in the debate. The students spoke with considerable enthusiasm and suggested number of feasible ideas. The highlights of the recommendations of the students have been sent to Prime Minister for his consideration and implementation.

The following students were awarded prize

1. M. Hemalatha – SBOA Matriculation School, Chennai
2. A. Advaith- St. Michael’s Academy, Chennai
3. G. Manesha- SBOA
4. Matriculation School, Chennai4. M. Amitha – Tamil Nadu Ambedkar Law University, Chennai
5. B. Shweta – Panimalar Engineering College, Chennai
6. R. Raghav- AMET University, Chennai
7. G.Thamizharasi – Tamil Nadu Ambedkar Law University, Chennai

We desire to submit the recommendations of the students for your study Need to start the Clean India campaign at school level. The clean habits and clean consciousness can be built among-st students in the formative age group successfully, that will bring a new generation who value cleanliness as the centre of all activities. Subject of waste avoidance, handling and treatment should be introduced in the curriculum at the school level all over India as compulsory subject. Every school should be asked to form Swachch Bharat Club, where the students can constantly discuss the subject and coordinate their activities to take up the campaign both in the premises of educational institutions and outside.

MOU between rural and urban educational institutions :

Each school and college located in urban area should sign a Memorandum of Understanding with a school or college in rural area. This would help in taking the new ideas to rural areas and those in urban areas will have a lesson or two to learn from rural areas. Such move would contribute enormously in providing a vigour in clean India campaign amongst the students in the formative age group, which will have great positive impact on the society .

Reform oriented punishment needed

The consensus view was that fine and punishment at individual level should be imposed on those , who cause unclean conditions on the public places like urinating etc. However, the punishment should not be punitive but must be reformist. It can be in the form of asking the violators to do cleaning work for a few hours in a place of their choice. Those who apologies for such behavior should be warned and compelled to attend some special classes conducted by NGOs on clean India campaign. However, the students cautioned that with the widespread corruption in official machinery at various levels, violators may get away after bribing the police men or supervisors.

Need for waste bins in many places

Number of waste bins suitably designed should be kept in all public places like bus stands, railway stations etc. in accessible place, with prominent pointers to them. All transport buses and railway compartments should have waste bins. The very presence of waste bins and constantly seeing them by the passers by will promote consciousness about the need for cleanliness to some extent.

Involving celebrities in clean campaign amount to ridicule

Cinema stars, sports persons, business men etc. are being roped in by Prime minister in the clean India campaign. People wonder as to whether these people would any day clean in their own homes and whether they would do so in public places without camera aimed at them. There are many common men and women all over India who are genuinely concerned and take active part in clean India campaign. Their efforts should be highlighted and appreciated in all villages, towns and cities by exhibiting their photographs in public places , which can be reviewed every three months.

This would make clean India campaign people centric ,instead of the present glamour oriented celebrity centric, which really amount to ridiculing the movement. Media focus on these so called celebrities but people are not impressed. Like Arjuna award given to the sports persons, national award should be instituted to recognize and award those who contribute to the promotion of clean India campaign in various ways including technology development.

Need for stress on avoiding waste and reuse of material

The used packaging medical wastes , electronic wastes etc. are big source of waste generation. The reuse of material like waste paper, used plastics are very important. Lot of technology inputs are required in achieving this objective.

Recognize rag pickers as self employed professionals :

The rag pickers are silent and great contributors to the clean India campaign now. The government must introduce special schemes to recognize the contribution of rag pickers and look after their welfare in the short and long run. The rag pickers should be encouraged as self employed professionals and the society should have the maturity and wisdom not to look at them in a demeaning way.

Need for neighborhood citizens’ initiatives:

Citizens should be encouraged to form associations in neighborhood to promote the clean India campaign in the local areas ,by monitoring regularly the cleaning activity and preventing those who cause unclean conditions. Official notification from the government recognizing such neighborhood associations will go a long way in sustaining the campaign and the government departments should be instruct- ed firmly by the government to meet the members of the association to take suggestions and coordinate the activity regularly.

Need to use traditional art forms :

Government should encourage NGOs to carry out clean India campaign at local levels by designing stage and road shows, using the traditional art forms , which will have a great impact in motivating the people and sustaining the clean India campaign. There is no need for the government to provide financial assistance to such schemes but the neighborhood associations can fund such projects in their areas by contribution from the citizens. People will donate money , if they are assured of earnestness of the campaign.

Many unclean conditions are due to the failings of government machinery

In thousands of villages in India and in many places and even in towns ,the toilet facilities are lacking in house- holds, particularly in the case of citizens living below poverty line. The government machinery has failed to provide such facilities for them.

Even in public places, toilets are not adequate in number and many of them are very poorly maintained. In many cinema theaters and even in some schools, such facilities are lacking or very poorly constructed and main- trained. Perhaps, it is high time that the government confess to the people that it is also responsible for the unclean conditions in India and the government should admit that unclean conditions are not due to the people alone.

While around 30 % of the country men are below poverty line, at least 30 % of the country men are living in comfortable conditions with surplus income and super rich in India are competing with the world rich people. These people have great responsibility to make monetary contribution voluntarily for the clean India campaign. If they would not do, they must be considered as irresponsible and unconcerned. If they would not actively participate in the clean India campaign , they may soon become an eyesore for the poor people.

Long drawn out battle:

The campaign for clean India must be waged in the minds and hearts of citizens. Prime Minister has given a tar- get of five years for achieving clean India, which is unlikely to be implemented adequately within this time frame. There is really no need to fix such targets, as the campaign for clean India has to be continuous and sustained for all time to come. The campaign has to be a permanent one and not time bound.

  -BY N.S.Venkataraman, Trustee Nandini Voice For The Deprived twitter : @nsvchennai

It is business in mind true but no. Uncle Sam is eyeing China hence left Pakistan dry and high to be with India. It is the geo political compulsion that force the most powerful man on earth to land in India for three working days. The rise of China, it’s expansionist mind set, military build up in South China sea and booming economy that is likely to overtake USA economy by 2028 has pushed USA to build solid relationship with India to counter the Chinese might collectively. For India, it is a tailor made situation to consolidate trade and technology relationship with the world’s most powerful nation. Secondly, the right wind NDA government led by hawkish Prime Minister Narendra Modi is an ideal partner to USA, presumably fighting a pitch battle with radical Islamic forces globally.

After arriving in India over the weekend, U.S. President Barack Obama concluded a series of bilateral agreements with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Obama, who was invited to India as the chief guest for India’s annual Republic Day celebrations, broached the once-uncomfortable topic of climate change with Modi, making surprising progress on the issue. The two leaders followed up on themes addressed during Modi’s September 2014 trip to the United States and addressed some issues that had been on the U.S.-India bilateral back-burner for several years now. What follows below is a quick distillation of nine high- lights out of the released joint statement, joint strategic vision document, and the visit overall. I’ll likely follow this up shortly with more detailed analysis on at least a couple of these points. I put together a similar summary of the previous U.S.-India bilateral joint statement after Modi’s U.S. trip, which focused primarily on defense and security issues that may help contextualize some of the below.

Ahead of this visit, the U.S. made it clear that both energy cooperation and climate change would be on the agenda. Unsurprisingly, one of the first announcements to come out of New Delhi during Obama’s visit was that the two countries had reached an agreement on climate change. Where previously India had resisted the notion that developing countries who had contributed little to global greenhouse gas production in the past should place caps on current emissions at the behest of developed countries, Modi seems to have partly revised India’s position. India will expand its use of renewable energy and move toward joining an international deal on global warming that would see developed and less-developed countries alike cap emissions. The development is a coup for the United States, which had similar success with China late last year. “When we think about the future generations and what kind of a world we are going to give them, then there is pres- sure,” Modi told the press after speaking with Obama. Obama, for his part, emphasized India’s importance for a global climate regulation regime: “India’s voice is very important” in negotiations, he said. Under a new agreement, the United States will also provide funding for renewable energy development in India.

Interestingly, the joint statement notes a confluence of two major East Asia-facing strategic initiatives by the two countries. The statement noted the alignment of “India’s ‘Act East Policy’ and the United States’ rebalance to Asia,” and the potential “opportunities for India, the United States, and other Asia-Pacific countries to work closely to strengthen regional ties” as result. This language did not appear in the September 2014 joint statement. Combined with the symbolism of Obama presiding over India’s Republic Day military parade, this sends a particularly strong message to Beijing. On a similar note, if you’re one for close textual analysis (as I sometimes am), the sixth clause of the statement highlights the “diversified” U.S.-India partnership with “strategic consultations, stronger defense, security, and economic cooperation.” Do take the ordering of those facets of cooperation with a grain of salt, but generally, the United States avoids emphasizing defense cooperation before economic cooperation in statements with countries that aren’t explicit allies.

On economics, the joint statement ticked all the usual points, promising increased trade and investment opportunities. The phrase “bilateral investment treaty” appears in this joint statement where it did not appear in the September 2014 document, suggesting that the two countries are serious about walking the walk on improved economic ties. U.S. firms in particular have complained about excessive red tape and corruption as risk-adding factors for doing business in India and a potential bilateral investment treaty negotiation process would likely require significant domestic political support in India.

The U.S. India Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) once again makes an appearance. Back in September 2014, the two leaders noted that their countries would “treat each other at the same level as their closest partners” on issues including “defense technology transfers, trade, research, co-production, and co-development.” The DTTI is poised to increase co production, co-development and partner- ship in U.S.-India military-industrial matters. The initiative is line with the Modi government’s plans to increase India’s defense self-sufficiency and increase the share of India’s military hardware that is manufactured on Indian soil. There isn’t too much new information about the DTTI in this statement, though Modi’s new “Make in India” initiative gets a shout-out in the context of defense co-production.

Though not noted on the joint statement, Obama’s visit resulted in the revelation of more than a few straight- up hardware deals, including the joint production of parts and systems of the Lockheed C-130 (which India operates), and RQ-11 Raven drones. Both of these deals had appeared in reports prior to Obama’s trip. India will take delivery of six additional C-130s through 2017.

I noted back in September that the statement made then marked the first occasion the two countries official- ly pronounced their joint support for the principle of the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and for resolving territorial disputes under UNCLOS. In the latest joint statement, neither the South China Sea nor UNCLOS makes an appearance. The Joint Strategic Vision document, however, notes that “regional prosperity depends on security. We affirm the importance of safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and over flight throughout the region, especially in the South China Sea.” That same statement adds that the two countries “call on all parties to avoid the threat or use of force and pursue resolution of territorial and maritime disputes through all peaceful means, in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.” North Korea’s nuclear program makes an appearance in the joint statement yet again. Similar to the September statement, “human rights” are nowhere to be seen.

The statement as usual includes more than a few clauses addressing terrorism, law enforcement, and count- er-terrorism. Naturally, both countries will increase their cooperation on these issues. Similar to the September statement, Pakistan-based anti-India terror groups are called out by name in the joint statement. The two leaders pledged to come together “to disrupt entities such as Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, D Company and the Haqqani Network.” Once again, they “reiterated their call for Pakistan to bring the perpetrators of the November 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai to justice.”

One issue that has been on the U.S.- India back-burner for some time now came to the fore during this visit: the issue of nuclear energy and civil nuclear liability in India. Famously, the United States and India concluded a civil nuclear cooperation agreement 2006 and, in 2008, India received a waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group, making it the only non-nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) compliant state to engage in normal nuclear commerce while maintaining an active nuclear weapons program. Unfortunately, India is yet to attract U.S. suppliers to set up nuclear facilities on its soil due to an unfortunately harsh legal liability regime in the form of the 2010 Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act. This law creates unacceptably high amounts of risk for foreign suppliers. To address this, Obama and Modi are exploring the possibility of an insurance pool that will, in theory, moderate the risk exposure for U.S. suppliers and bring U.S. nuclear suppliers into India (this is a complex issue and Praveen Swami over at The Indian Express has a great primer outlining the stakes). For the moment, according to the New York Times, Westinghouse and GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy have welcomed the agreement.

As I noted above, both India’s “Act East” policy and the U.S. re balance  to Asia make an early appearance in the joint statement. The statement notes later that India and the United States will “work more closely with other Asia Pacific countries through consultations, dialogues, and joint exercises.” Interestingly enough, the next sentence specifically highlights the importance of the U.S. India Japan trilateral relationship. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and an increasingly close partner to India. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was India’s chief guest at last year’s Republic Day celebrations. Overall, this visit is a strong indicator that U.S. India ties will follow a positive trajectory over the course of this year. It was indeed bold of Indian prime minister Narendra Modi to extend an offer to Obama to visit India so soon after visiting Washington himself. Obama, by accepting, became the first sitting U.S. president to visit India twice while in office (though Obama did cut his visit short to visit Saudi Arabia to pay respects to its recently deceased king). It’s been clear for some time now that the United States and India are strategically converging. Unfortunately, given India’s low standing on the list of U.S. foreign policy priorities and latent scepticism about U.S. intentions in India, the pace of that convergence was sluggish. If Obama’s visit and Modi’s 2014 U.S. visit are any indication, both countries are serious about making up for lost time. The USA think tank headed by Mr Henry Kissinger have quantified four  major blocks in the world namely USA, Europe, Arab world and China. The former NSA have never mentioned India in high priority list of foreign policy via USA. The sudden love of USA for India must be tread with caution and India must surrender itself to larger diplomatic designs by forgoing its own sovereign foreign policy. In the emerging new world order, surely there is a scope for building even deeper ties with USA. A country of over billion people must guard itself from foreign policy complacency and defense related preparation keeping in view the external and internal threats.

 – BY Prashant Tewari

Paris: The bloody denouement on Friday of two hostage crises at different ends of a traumatized Paris means attention will now shift to the gaping question facing the French government:

How did several jihadis and possibly a larger cell of co-conspirators manage to evade surveillance and execute a bold attack despite being well known to the country’s police and intelligence services?

On its own, the Wednesday morning slaughter that left 12 people dead at the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo represented a major breakdown for French security and intelligence forces, especially after authorities confirmed that the two suspects, the brothers Said and Cherif Kouachi, had known links to the militant group, al-Qaida in Yemen.

Then on Friday, even as police had cornered the Kouachi brothers inside a printing factory in the northeast suburbs, another militant, Amedy Coulibaly who has since been linked to the Kouachis stormed a Kosher supermarket in Paris and threatened to kill hostages if the police captured the Kouachis.

“There is a clear failing,” French Prime Minister Manuel Valls told French television Friday.

“When 17 people die, it means there were cracks.”

A U.S. official speaking about the failure to identify the plot said that French intelligence and law enforcement agencies had conducted surveillance on one or both of the Kouachi brothers after Said returned from Yemen, but later lessened that monitoring or dropped it altogether to focus on what were believed to be bigger threats.

“These guys were known to be bad, and the French had tabs on them for a while,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid complicating a delicate intelligence matter. “At some point, though, they allocated resources differently. They moved on to other targets.”

The official acknowledged that U.S.spy agencies tracked Westerners, particularly young men, traveling in and out of Yemen much more closely after a failed al-Qaida plot to blow up an airliner on Christmas Day 2009.

But the official said the United States left the monitoring of the Kouachi brothers and other French citizens in France to that country’s security services.

One reason for the lapses may be that the number of possible jihadis inside France has continued to expand sharply. France has seen 1,000 to 2,000 of its citizens go to fight in Syria or Iraq, with about 200 returning, and the task of surveillance has grown overwhelming.

The questions facing French intelligence services will begin with the attack at Charlie Hebdo.

Authorities knew that striking the satirical newspaper and its editor, for their vulgar treatment of the Prophet Muhammad, had been a stated goal of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, through its propaganda journal, Inspire.

Intelligence officers also had identified the Kouachi brothers as being previously involved in jihad related activities, for which Cherif was convicted in 2008. Investigators also have linked Cherif to a plot to free from prison an Islamic militant convicted for the 1995 bombing of a French subway station, while French news organizations have reported that Coulibaly was also implicated in that case.

© 2015, The New York Times News Service

The US is on the thin edge of strategic failure in two wars: the war in Iraq and the war in Afghanistan/Pakistan. This failure may never reach the point of outright defeat in either country. Iraq may never become hostile, revert to civil war, or come under anything approaching Iranian control. Afghanistan and Pakistan may never become major sanctuaries for terrorist attacks on the US and its allies.

Yet Iraq is already a grand strategic failure. The US went to war for the wrong reasons, let Iraq slide into a half decade of civil war, and failed to build an effective democracy and base for Iraq’s economic development. Its tactical victories if they last did little more than put an end to a conflict it help create, and the US failed to establish anything like the strategic partnership it sought.

The US invasion did bring down a remarkably unpleasant dictatorship, but at cost of some eight years of turmoil and conflict, some 5,000 US and allied lives and 35,000 wounded, and over 100,000 Iraqi lives. The Congressional Research Service estimates that the dollar cost of the war to the US alone is over $823 billion through FY 2012, and SIGIR estimates that the US and its allies will have spent some $75 billion on aid – much of it with little lasting benefit to Iraq.

The outcome in Afghanistan and Pakistan now seems unlikely to be any better. While any such judgments are subjective, the odds of meaningful strategic success have dropped from roughly even in 2009 to 4:1 to 6:1 against at the end of 2011. It is all very well for senior US officials to discuss ?fight, talk, and build, and for creating a successful transition before the US and ISAF allies withdraw virtually all of their combat troops and make massive cuts in the flow of outside money to Afghanistan. The US, however, has yet to present a credible and detailed plan for transition that shows the US and its allies can achieve some form of stable, strategic outcome in Afghanistan that even approaches the outcome of the Iraq War.

Far too many US actions have begun to look like a cover for an exit strategy from Afghanistan, and the US has never provided a credible set of goals indeed any goals at all for the strategic out- come it wants in Pakistan. Unless the US does far more to show it can execute a transition that has lasting strategic benefits in Afghanistan and Pakistan well after 2014, it is all too likely to repeat the tragedy of its withdrawal from Vietnam.

Such a US strategic failure may not mean outright defeat, although this again is possible. It is far from clear that the Taliban and other insurgents will win control of the country, that Afghanistan will plunge into another round of civil war, or that Afghanistan and Pakistan will see the rebirth of Al Qaida or any other major Islamist extremist or terrorist threat.

However, the human and financial costs have far outstripped the probable grand strategic benefits of the war. Given the likely rush to a US and ISAF exit, cuts in donor funding and in country expenditures, and unwillingness to provide adequate funding after 2014, Afghanistan is likely to have less success than Iraq in building a functioning democracy with control over governance, economic development, and security. Worse, Pakistan is far more strategically important and is drifting towards growing internal violence and many of the aspects of a failed state.

Even if Afghanistan gets enough outside funding to avoid an economic crisis and civil war after US and allied withdrawal, it will remain a weak and divided state dependent on continuing US and outside aid through 2024 and beyond, confining any strategic role to one of open-ended dependence. As for a nuclear-armed Pakistan, it is far more likely to be a disruptive force in Afghanistan than a constructive one, and there is little sign it will become any form of real ally or effectively manage its growing internal problems.

Regardless of which outcome occurs, the result will still be strategic failure in le estimates of total Afghan casualties since 2001, but some estimates put direct deaths at around 18,000 and indirect deaths at another 3,200-20,000. And the war is far from over.terms of cost-benefits to the US and its allies. The Afghan War has cost the US and its allies over 2,700 dead and well over 18,000 wounded. There are no reliable.

The Congressional Research Service estimates that the dollar cost of the war to the US alone is over $527 billion through FY2012, and SIGAR estimates that the US and its allies will have spent some $73 billion on aid much of it again with little lasting benefit. Similar cost estimates are lacking for Pakistan, but they have also taken significant casualties and received substantial amounts of US aid.

The key question now is whether the US can minimize the scale of its strategic failure. Can the US move from concepts and rhetoric to working with its allies, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to create a credible transition plan that can secure Congressional and popular sup- port and funding? Can they actually implement such a transition plan with the effectiveness that has been lacking in its efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan to date?

Some form of success (or limited failure) may still be possible, but the analysis in this paper warns that nothing the US government has said to date raises a high probability that this will be the case, and that much of the progress it has reported may be misleading. There are four critical areas wherein any lasting level of success is now unlikely:

Strategic failure?

The US has not shown that it can bring about enough of the elements required to create Afghan security and stability in a way that creates more than a marginal possibility that Afghanistan will have a successful transition by 2014, or at any time in the near future. It has never announced any plan that would make this possible. It has no strategic plans or clearly defined goals for Pakistan, although it has far more strategic importance than Afghanistan. Talk Without Hope: It is far from clear that any major insurgent faction feels it is either losing, or cannot simply out wait, US and allied withdrawal. Nor is it clear that Pakistan will ever seriously attempt to eliminate insurgent sanctuaries within its borders. If insurgents do chose to negotiate it may well be because they feel the US, allied, and GIROA position is becoming so weak they can use diplomacy as a form of war by other means and speed their victory through deception and by obtaining US,allied, and GIROA concessions. They have already used similar tactics in Helmand and Pakistan, and Nepal and Cambodia are warnings that ?talk may do little more than cover an exit. Tactical Success? The very real gains the US and ISAF have made in the south may not be possible to hold if the US move forces east, and the US and ISAF are cutting forces so quickly that it is doubtful they can achieve the goals that ISAF set for 2012. ANSF development is being rushed forward as future resources are being cut, and it is far from clear that the insurgents cannot out wait the US and ISAF and win a war of political attrition without having to win tactical battles in the field. The ISAF focus on significant acts of violence is a questionable approach to assessing both tactical and strategic progress, and ANSF transition has been little more than political symbolism. Spend Not Build?

The latest Department of Defense and SIGAR reports do little to indicate that US and allied efforts to improve the quality of government, the rule of law, representative democracy, and economic development are making any- thing like the needed level of progress. They are a warning that Afghanistan and the Afghan government may face a massive recession as funding is cut, and the dreams of options like mining income and a ?new Silk road are little more than a triumph of hope over credible expectations. Once again, the very real progress being made in the development of the ANSF is being rushed as future funding is being cut, and it is unclear that current gains will be sustained or that the US has sufficient time left in which to find credible answers to these questions, build Congressional, domestic, and allied support, and then to begin implementing them. It is now entering the 11th year of a war for which it seems to have no clear plans and no clear strategic goals. The new strategy that President Obama outlined in 2009 is now in tatters.

There are no obvious prospects for stable relations with Pakistan or for get- ting more Pakistani support. The Karzai government barely functions, and new elections must come in 2014 – the year combat forces are supposed to leave. US and allied troop levels are dropping to critical levels. No one knows what presence – if any – would stay after 2014. Progress is taking place in creating an Afghan army, but without a functioning state to defend, the ANSF could fragment. Far less progress is taking place in creating the police and justice system. Massive aid to Afghanistan has produced far too few tangible results, and the Afghan economy is likely to go into a depression in 2014 in the face of massive aid and spending cuts that will cripple both the economy and Afghan forces.

It is time the Obama Administration faced these issues credibly and in depth. The US and its allies need a transition plan for Afghanistan that either provides a credible way to stay with credible costs and prospects for victory or an exit plan that reflects at least some regard for nearly 30 million Afghans and our future role in the region. It needs to consider what will happen once the US leaves Afghanistan and what longer term approaches it should take to a steadily more divided and unstable Pakistan.

In the case of the US, this also means a detailed transition plan that spells out exactly how the US plans to phase down its civil and military efforts, what steps it will take to ensure that transition is stable through 2014, and a clear estimate of the probable cost. The US needs a meaningful action plan that Congress, the media, area experts, and the American people can debate and commit themselves to supporting. If President Obama cannot provide such a plan within months, and win the sup- port necessary to implement it, any hope of salvaging lasting success in the war will vanish.

Even if the US does act on such a plan and provide the necessary resources, it may not succeed, and Pakistan may become progressively more unstable regardless of US aid and actions in Afghanistan. Any de facto ?exit strategy? will make this future almost inevitable.

The most likely post-2014 out come in Afghanistan, at this point in time, is not the successful transition to a democratic Afghan government with control of the entire country. Nor is it likely that the Taliban will regain control of large parts of the country. Rather, the most likely outcome is some sort of middle ground where the insurgents control and operate in some areas, while others are controlled by the Pashtun. Some form of the Northern Alliance is likely to appear, and the role of the central government in Kabul would be limited or caught up in civil conflict.

This would not be what some US policy makers call ?Afghan good enough,? it would be ?Afghan muddle through.? What, exactly such an ?Afghan muddle would look like, and how divided and violent it would be, is impossible to predict. But it is the most likely outcome and the US needs to start now to examine the different options it has for dealing with a post-2014 Afghanistan that is far less stable and self-sufficient than current plans predict, and make real plans for a Pakistan whose government and military cannot move the country forward and contain its rising internal violence. As is the case in Iraq, strategic failure in the Afghanistan Pakistan War cannot end in a total US exit. The US must be ready to deal with near and long term consequences.

Courtesy CSIS

Taiwan is a part of the geographical area of operation of India’s Look East Policy (LEP). Although India does not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state, its functional and people-to- people contacts with Taiwan are explainable under the LEP. Besides, India’s economic activities are on the rise in the vicinity of Taiwan. Though commercial in nature, India’s presence in the South China Sea, along with improvement in its bilateral relations with Asia-Pacific countries especially in the realm of politics and defense cooperation is of strategic significance. In the overall strategic context of the region, increasing functional ties with Taiwan without undermining the support to the one China Policy would be a stiff challenge requiring clarity of vision and skilled diplomacy. Thus, it is imperative for India to have a much better understanding of Taiwan, and the Asia-Pacific region.

In the author’s view, functional ties/cooperation and people-to-people relations could make a separate category without attaching any diplomatic, political or strategic meanings. The main attributes of this category can be listed as below:

• A comprehensive package that includes cooperation in education, culture, science and technology, trade and investment and other similar issue- areas.
• The package could also be characterised as people-to-people relations.
• Cooperation without manifest strategic underpinning and implications.

Engagement with Taiwan would lead India to have a more informed Taiwan policy. Its unique geographical location and political situation would also con- tribute to India’s understanding of the Asia-Pacific region. Taiwan is situated in the middle of the disputed waters of the South and the East China Seas. Considering the continued threat from the People Republic of China (PRC) to its national security, Taiwan not only has a natural interest in the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), China-Japan tensions, and the dynamic of Sino-US relations, but also a natural expertise on them. Taiwan and China have historical and cultural affinity, but political and strategic distance. Strategically, Taiwan is close to the US and figures in Japan’s security considerations. It is obliquely mentioned in the US-Japan Defense Guidelines, 1997. But the US and Japan’s support for PRC’s One China Policy has set a limit on their relations with Taiwan. Thus, Taiwan is not fully open to either of the major regional players. This situation leaves it marginalized and dissatisfied with every major power in the region and makes it a neutral interpreter of the region’s politics. India could tap into this consultative potential of Taiwan.

Functional cooperation with Taiwan is even more valuable. Taiwan is a thriving and industrialized economy that is closely integrated with the international economy. It is amongst the world’s leading exporting and importing countries. It is the leading producer and manufacturer in the world in foundries, IC packages, blank optical discs, mask ROMs, mobility scooters/powered wheelchairs and chlorella. If the products made by Taiwanese companies outside Taiwan are also taken into account, the list of products commanding a high share in the world is even longer. Notebooks, Tablets, LCD monitors, IC packages, motherboards (System & Pure MB), WLAN CPEs, cable modems, and digital blood-pressure monitors are a few examples. Apart from electronics, Taiwan’s agro industries, particularly food-processing, maintain international standards. It also holds high rank in the international rating by agencies like the Institute for Management Development (IMD), Business Environment Risk Intelligence (BERI), the World Economic Forum (WEF), and the Heritage Foundation. Its business environment, research and development, and innovation are recognized worldwide. (Data relating to all these is available in the tables at the end of this monograph). Further, Taiwan’s education system ranks quite high. For instance, fourteen Taiwanese universities in 30 disciplines are on the list-compiled by the QS World University of the UK of the top 200 universities in the world.1 India could become an important destination for Taiwan’s new Go South policy for diversifying Taiwan’s trade and investment basket. India could also become an alternative to China for many Taiwanese companies in view of rising wages and costs in that country.

In fact, a regulated flow of skilled labour from India can help overcome the problem of high costs in Taiwan itself. Taiwanese FDI can contribute to India’s manufacturing, infrastructure and other sectors. India and Taiwan make a case for mutual benefit by being substantial complementary economies, as India’s computer software industry complements Taiwan’s computer hardware capability. India’s demography, with a more than 300 million strong middle class, offers an economic opportunity for Taiwanese entrepreneurs. India is also one of the leading suppliers of natural resources. It can be a gateway to South Asia, and even West Asia, for Taiwanese companies. Further, like Taiwan, India too has a reasonably impressive record of achievements in science and technology. For instance, India has gained inter- national recognition in the automobile, electronics and space science sectors. In education, India has internationally recognised institutes- like the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) and Indian Institutes of Management (IIMs). Besides, there is sufficient space for cooperation between the two countries in the spheres of culture and tourism. This monograph deals with Taiwanas it exists in the world today.

It does not deal with the legal question, whether Taiwan is an independent state or a Chinese province. Despite its ambiguous diplomatic status, Taiwan remains an important factor in the East Asian security scenario. In spite of the Cross-Strait relations in their best phase, the solution to the Cross-Strait conundrum remains elusive. Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have signed 19 agreements related to functional areas since 2008. However, a formal political dialogue or a peace agreement that the PRC is pushing hard for, is not in sight. Taiwan does not appear inclined to yield on the question of sovereignty. Any formula that would downgrade Taiwan’s international standing is unacceptable to both Taiwan’s political class and the common Taiwanese.

Contrary to Chinese expectations, the prospects of economic cooperation and integration have not made the Taiwanese amenable to Chinese claims over Taiwan. Similarly, on the other side of the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan’s unification with China continues to be a powerful reference point for Chinese nationalism. China still has its missiles deployed against Taiwan. Moreover, it is yet to renounce the use of force as an option to resolve the Cross-Strait problem. This reinforces Taiwan’s perception of China as a threat to its security. Finally, the US, the security guarantor of Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) 1979, continues to maintain diplomatic ambiguity over the Cross-Strait issue. Therefore, any conflagration in the volatile waters of Taiwan Strait could result in a US- China face off.

Taiwan is also a part of problematic territorial claims in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Its claims overlap with those of China and are ignored by the other concerned parties. Taiwanese claims mostly address domestic constituency. It appears con- tent with the practical arrangements for resource-sharing. A good example is its fishery pact with Japan in 2013. However, since these claims stoke popular sentiment in Taiwan, it is difficult for the Taiwanese government to ignore the public opinion on these issues. Therefore, overlooking Taiwan in the regional security map would bring pres- sure on the US alliance in the region, of which Taiwan is a part. Taiwan success- fully drove this point during the stand- offs between Japan and China in the East China Sea over the Senkaku/Diao Yu islands in 2012-13 by its diplomatic manoeuvrings. In fact, the Japan- Taiwan fishery pact has effectively made the dispute tripartite, and implies that Taiwan is a player in the dispute. In May 2013, the government of Taiwan conveyed that diplomatic recognition or not, it is capable of taking care of its citizens when it flexed its economic muscle against the Philippines over the killing of a Taiwanese farmer-fisherman by the Philippines coastguard.

Finally, accelerated interaction and cooperation in functional areas between India and Taiwan would, in the long-term, also contribute to increased mutual awareness. The Cross-Strait unification would not be the only eventuality in the dialectics of Cross-Strait relations. Whether Taiwan would eventually unify with China, or the status quo would persist, or some other form of Cross-Strait relations would emerge, is difficult to predict. To study and engage Taiwan is important irrespective of the scenarios, because each scenario will shape the regional security dynamics in its own way.

 – Prashant Kumar Singh

Telangana will be the 29th state of India comprising 10 districts with plenty of water and some other natural resources in a backward region lacking development that was at the heart of the separate state demand.As and when the state is formed, the jewel in the crown will always be the city of Hyderabad, which may for some time, at least 10 years to start with, be the joint capital for the rest of Andhra.

With a population of over 3.5 crore, the new state comprising mostly the areas of the princely Nizam state will have 17 Lok Sabha seats and 119 assembly seats.When it joins the Indian Union, people of the region would hope that the new identity would help them over- come the challenges of poverty and backwardness which were at the roots of the separate state movement.

The demand for a separate identity for Telangana is virtually as old as the state of Andhra Pradesh, which came into existence in November 1956 through the States Reorganization Act. The Andhra Pradesh government website says: “Telangana agitation was started by the people of the region when they felt that Andhra leaders had flouted the Gentlemen’s Agreement which facilitated the formation of Andhra Pradesh.

“In the beginning, the movement demanded the implementation of the safeguards agreed upon earlier, but later it wanted the separation of Telangana from Andhra Pradesh.” That the seat of government in Hyderabad has persistently ignored the needs of Telangana at the expense of the other regions of the state has been a constant grouse of the advocates of separate statehood. The new Telangana state would comprise the 10 districts of Hyderabad, Medak, Adilabad, Khammam, Karimnagar, Mahbubnagar, Nalgonda, Nizamabad, Rangareddy and Warangal. Now, according to the Backward Regions Grant Fund 2009-10, 13 districts in Andhra Pradesh have been identified as being backward, of which nine are in Telangana.

Classified as a semi-arid region with a predominantly hot and dry climate, Telangana is not amongst the most fertile regions of the country.But it does have its share of natural resources and notably contains 20% of the country’s coal deposits. Among other natural resources are mica and bauxite along with some limestone reserves.But given the lack of development, Telangana has served as a fertile ground for the Maoist insurgency to take root.A clutch of leaders of the Naxalite movement hail from the region. Slain Maoist Kishanji, who was No.3 in the rebels’ hierarchy, hailed from Karimnagar district.

Doer Nitish Kumar scores over political rhetoric of Lalu and Ram Vilas

On the morning of counting day, driving through rain and the blossoms of Laburnum and Gulmohar in Patna, I was surprised to find that the road outside Nitish’s residence deserted. For a moment I assumed the other news channels had decided to skip the early morning slightly pointless pre results dispatches, till I walked a few steps away to the next lane. Sure enough, the entire media cavalcade of cameras and broadcast vans was parked right there – outside the home of Rabri devi, Lalu’s wife and the proxy Leader of Opposition.

Why would the media ignore the bigger story – Nitish Kumar, the man being wooed by all political formations, praised by Rahul Gandhi, hand-grabbed by Narendra Modi, and generally seen as Bihar’s great hope – to chase the by now predictable story – the decline of Lalu Prasad, the Railway minister who looked all set to go off track this election??This could a matter of habit – after all, Lalu has been the centre of gravity in Bihar for two decades. Or it could a more calculated journalistic gambit, linked to the well known contrast between the two men – Impetuous Lalu might supply some drama even as a loser, while Punctilious Nitish would not allow the media in except at the designated hour dutifully phoned and faxed to media offices. Nitish, as the consensus goes, does not believe in springing surprises.

And the initial leads came as no surprise. Both reporters and exit polls had picked up the astonishingly high level of Nitish’s personal popularity on which the NDA hoped to sweep Bihar. The only subject of speculation then – what would be the final tally? Lalu’s elder son, a Krishna Bhakt and mildly notorious in Patna, drove in from a morning visit to the temple, flashing the victory sign, holding up both his hands. He is giving four seats to his party – quipped one journalist. Uncannily, that’s what the RJD ended the day with.

Ram Vilas Paswan, the LJP leader who completes the Bihar triumvirate, had all morning been ensconced in a five star hotel suite – the one that he occupies when he is in Patna, which is not too of- ten, usually around election time. He has a reason, or excuse, to stay away – as par t of every single government since 1996, his duties as Union Minister have kept him busy in Delhi. Except this election took that excuse away. Paswan lost from Hajipur – a seat he won seven times since 1977, losing just once in the Congress wave of 1984. This time, an 88 year old man, Ram Sunder Das de feated him. Das could be this Lok Sabha’s oldest candidate.

As far as age goes, many have claimed this election has upturned an old truth about the way Bihar polls. That it is no longer about Jaat or caste, the vote is for Vikaas or development. Hardly one to dispute the remarkable transformation underway in Bihar, led by Nitish, I would slightly modify that claim. The reality is more nuanced.

Nitish has revived Bihar’s comatose administration, kickstar ted schools and hospitals, used the centre’s money well to build roads and infrastructure – public goods meant for all, they have indeed created a groundswell of support for him across the state and across communities. But what Nitish has also done is target benefits to specific communities, based on caste: the EBC’s or extremely backward castes, numerically larger among the backward castes but edged out by the more powerful Yadavs and Kurmis, have finally been given political space through reservations in panchayats; Mahadalits, dalits minus chamars and Paswans, for whom state largesse now ranges from subsidised homes to monthly supply of bathing soap; even among Muslims, Nitish has singled out the Pasmanda or backward and dalit muslims for special schemes like Talimi Markaj, a scheme aimed to bring Muslim children to school.

This is social engineering, Nitish style. And it pays. It has created new vote banks. Numerically, the most significant is the EBC bloc, 100 odd castes that add up to around 30 % of Bihar’s vote. In 2004, not a single EBC candidate was voted to Parliament. In 2009, three will be sworn in as MPs, all three are from Nitish’s party.

Further proof of how caste realigned this election – Lalu’s outburst post defeat. Two months ago, on poll eve, he dismissed my questions on the impact of the potential consolidation of the EBC and Mahadalit vote. But as his own electoral defeat from Pataliputra flashed on TV screens, he turned to the group of journalists and ranted : ‘Everyone has united against Yadavs, there is hatred against Yadavs’. His other villains: the administration for rigging the polls, an upper caste media for biased reporting. Familiar targets from the nineties.

Not surprising. But what was mildly stunning was Lalu’s dismissal of development as a factor. He said if Vikaas could win votes, he would have won hands down for the turnaround of the Railways. He was emphatic : development does not win votes. It was scary to see a man stuck in the nineties.

Nitish, as expected, called for a press conference and walking into 1, Anne Marg had a surprise in store : a mandatory security check, at sharp contrast from the mad chaotic unchecked stampede into Lalu’s home. The security guards, including women constables, were trained to frisk, but did not have the detectors. Another insight into how Bihar is changing – step by step.

The press conference took place under the mango tree, the sole unchanging landmark in a vastly different Chief Ministerial Residence. The briefing lasted twenty minutes and a beaming Nitish Kumar repeated several times, the word ‘Nakaraatmak’, translated best as ‘Negative’, but far more potent in its original meaning. Nitish said voters had rejected the ‘Nakaraatmak’ approach of his opponents. Nitish reiterated that this was a vote against ‘Nakaraatmak’ politics. At final count, Nitish had used the word 10 times. Nitish may have chosen the negative adjective, but his work has been an affirmative one, both as the chief minister trying to bring governance back to Bihar, and as a politician schooled in the politics of social justice.

The stream combines the socialist ideals of Jayaprakash Narayan, and the modified socialism of Karpoori Thakur – Bihar’s second backward caste chief minister and the first to introduce reservations for OBCs in Nor th India, way back in 1978. Both Lalu and Nitish were claimants to this legacy. But while Lalu squandered it, Nitish is building on it – by deepening the reach of reservations and social targeting. It is Mandal Part Two. And like Mandal Part One, you could have a problem with it, if you oppose affirmative action based on caste. Except, by further refining reservations, Nitish has actually taken on what has been one of the prinicipal criticisms of Mandal – that it helped dominant caste groups like Yadavs and Kurmis become even more powerful, at the cost of the more backward and less powerful groups.

Lalu may have privately wished that Nitish’s agenda would lead to a backlash from the upper castes, Yadavs and Kurmis – but it didn’t. Possibly one explanation : even if the others are slightly resentful of reservations, the resentment is offset by the larger benefits of a functioning state that has finally begun to deliver.

No wonder, at his press conference, Nitish didnt look partic- ularly crushed at the national picture of a UPA win, and an NDA defeat. Instead, he asked the new government at the centre to live up to the promise of special status for Bihar – just a day ago, ever y political party had shown a willingness to consider the demand when a hung verdict seemed likely and the support of Nitish seemed crucial. Still beaming, Nitish wrapped up : Good that the elections are over, now lets all get back to work.

Post Script: Observations overheard that day: RJD has be- come Rajput Janta Dal. Apart from Laloo, the other three RJD candidates who won are Rajputs. The election has ended the Raj of Gundas – Gundis. Gundas are dons turned politicians. Gundis are their wives, propped up as proxy candidates. All 10 of them lost. Including Munna Shukla on a JD U ticket. A jubilant Nitish had one reason to be upset. Digvijay Singh, his former party colleague turned rebel, won from Banka defeating Nitish’s candidate. This setback could be crucial – in keeping Nitish grounded. Bihar cannot afford another arrogant leader.

 – OE News Bureau

Vote for him in the December’s Gujarat Assembly elections and pave the way for him to be the Prime Minister of India. That will save the Hindus and the India, appeals the Indian American Intellectuals Forum. December is a very crucial month for the Chief Minister Narendra Modi, for the State of Gujarat, for the Hindus in India, and for India as the country. The State Assembly elections in Gujarat are scheduled for December 13 and 17 – and the results will be announced on December 20.

In India, Shri Narendra Modi is an embodiment of courage and valor. He is a powerful orator, a consummate communicator and a forthright thinker. He is a fearless fighter, a legend who under- stands how to capture the collective imagination of the people he wants to lead. In spite of the mean and mendacious media blitzkrieg launched against him by anti-Hindu Congress Party in collusion with the dangerous combination of anti-national radical Islamists, Leftists and foreign-funded NGOs, Narendra Modi has not only stood strong, but has also made them eat the humble pie.

Gujarat under Narendra Modi, the “Lion of Gujarat”, has blossomed in the last eleven years and has become the growth engine of India. Modi has completely transformed the state’s economic and political landscape. He is punctilious in his thoughts, deeds and actions and runs the state like an efficient CEO.

Narendra Modi is endowed with a syncretistic vision which enables him to lead Gujarat in a harmonious manner. Under his dynamic leadership, Gujarat is practically leading the country in every segment of economy. the power, petroleum, petrochemicals, ports, steel, minerals, gems, jewellery and auto industry.

When he first took over as the Chief Minister, Gujarat had a power shortage of 2000 MW, but now it is a power surplus state. Gujarat actually contributes 16% to the country’s overall industrial production. Agricultural growth of Gujarat is at 11%; the rest of India it is barely 4%.

In a quantum leap, in April 2012, Narendra Modi dedicated to the nation 600 MW of installed solar power projects, including the Asia’s largest solar park with 214 MW generation capacity. With achievements like these, Narendra Modi has established himself as the man with vision, mission and conviction.

His zero tolerance policy towards the terrorism has won him big laurels. Gujarat, which was the home of some of the worst communal riots in independent India has seen no communal disturbances in the last ten years. Politically, Narendra bhai got a big boost to his image and stature when in April 2012 the Supreme Court-appoint- ed Special Investigation Team (SIT) cleared him of the charges related to Gujarat riots of 2002. In its report SIT has exposed the nexus between the top State Congress officials, the so-called ‘secular’ journalists, NGOs and the police. For such legendary courage and conviction, Narendra Modi actually deserves the nation’s ovation and admiration, rather than the dishonor and defamation.

Recently, the prestigious “Time magazine” featured Modi on its cover page. Financial Times, another world-class publication, applauded Gujarat’s growth under Modi in glowing terms. A September 2011 report drawn up by the US Congressional Research Service (CRS) describes Modi as the “King of Governance.” The world-renowned Brookings Institution’s Managing Director writes about Modi in March 2012 that India could elect him as its Prime Minister.

Over eighty three percent of India’s population or Nine Hundred Ninety million people in the country are Hindu. Yet, shamefully, the country is being ruled by the minorities, who are barely 18% of the population count. India is the only country in the world where its minorities principally the Muslims and the Christians — have ganged up together to enact laws that decide how the Hindu majority should behave in their own country! It is truly a matter of great regret and shame that Hindus are taking this injustice and tyranny lying down!

Sinister efforts are underway to selectively appoint the Christians and Muslims in sensitive and powerful posi- tions within the administration. Here are a few glaring examples of it: Chairperson of the country’s ruling political alliance UPA is Sonia Gandhi, a practicing Catholic Christian. Her son Rahul Gandhi, another Catholic Christian, is being groomed to be the next Prime Minister of India. Country’s Defense Minister A.K. Antony, the Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai, and Head of the Air Wing of military Anil Kumar Browne, P.J. Kurien Dy. Chairman Rajya Sabha, P.C. Chacko, newly appointed Congress Spokesperson, P.J. Thomas, 14th Chief Vigilance Commissioner (appointment subsequently quashed) are all Christians.

The country’s Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid, Minister of State for External Affairs E. Ahamed, the Chief Justice Altmas Kabir, the nation’s Vice President and Chairman of Rajya Sabha Hamid Ansari, Chief Election Commissioner S.Y. Qureshi, Attorney General of India, Goolam Essaji Vahanvati, K. Rahman Khan, Minister for Minorities Affairs ad Rashid Alvi, Congress Spokesperson are all Muslims.

To add an insult to the injury Syed Asif Ibrahim, a Muslim IPS officer has been appointed as Chief of Intelligence Bureau (IB). Many Hindu leaders believe that his appointment could endanger India’s internal security. In this connection, readers should note that in order to pave the way for Asif Ibrahim to be the Chief of IB, at least four of his senior Hindu officers (R.N. Gupta, V. Rajagopal, S. Jayaraman and Yashovardhan Azad) were transferred to insignificant posts.

Closest political advisors of Sonia Gandhi are Margaret Alva, a Christian, Ahmad Patel, a Muslim and Osar Fernandez, a senior Indian National Congress leader, a Christian. The country’s Minister of Health and Family Welfare Gulam Nabi Azad is a Muslim. For all practical purposes, the over-all Hindu people and India as the country are presently under a state of siege. Unknown to the common public, that siege has been laid with the help of radical Islamists, jihadists, and Marxists. The chief aim of this insidious conspiracy is to demoralize and denigrate the Hindus and their organizations… and encourage the centrifugal forces to balkanize India into several mini-Pakistan .Almost all Hindus have already been driven out of Kashmir. Over 30 million Bangladeshi Muslims have infiltrated into Assam, West Bengal and other neighboring states. The states like Assam, Bengal, and Kerala are witnessing a big demographic change. No matter how strongly we deny it, the unfortunate fact still remains intact that the “demographic con- quest of any land is the most permanent form of a conquest.”

Discrimination against Hindus in India is rampant. Top Hindu temples like Tirupati and Sabrimala are taken away from Hindu hands – through the legislation – and given to ‘secular’ civil servants for managing them. From the religious offerings of Hindu devotees meant strictly for the Hindu issues, the bureaucrats unfairly dole away Rs. 690 crores a year as the Haj subsidy alone.

There is a complete economic mess and utter chaos in India created by various mega-scams: Coal-gate scam worth Rs. 186,000 crores, 2G scam worth Rs. 176,000 crores, and Commonwealth Games scam worth Rs. 70,000 crores. Massive payoffs from these scams have made it possible for a half-literate Italian-Indian woman like Sonia Gandhi to become the fourth richest politician in the world.

Amidst all this gigantic plunder and loot, there is little hope for our country. The only way out is if the honest and courageous leaders like Narendra Modi man- age to get into the driver’s seat… and, maneuver the country away from the sure doom and disaster waiting ahead. If you want to restore the dignity to India, if you wish to put Bharat Mata on the pedestal of glory, if you want the country to be a super-power in real terms… it is incumbent upon all such residents of Gujarat to come out in big numbers on the polling day and vote for Narendra Modi… the only honest, hardworking and charismatic leader of Gujarat.

 – OE News Bureau

Finally, the much anticipated elections for the National Assembly along with four Provincial Assemblies got over last week. While the results are clear in terms of who won and how many seats, it would take few weeks to identify the major trends in 2013 elections. This commentary focuses on eight major trends/out comes that could be identified, as a preliminary analysis.

First and foremost, the election process and the polling, was by and large free and fair, especially in a South Asian, and in particular Pakistani context. Though there was violence, it did not totally disrupt the election process. And more importantly, there are no reasons to believe that either the military or the intelligence agencies tried to change the outcome of the results. Invariably, every political party, perhaps except the ANP (Awami National Party) had a level playing field in terms of freeness and fairness of the election process and polling.

Zardari deserves a big applause for not only his deft handling of internal political issues and external issues in such a manner that there was no dissolution of the elected assemblies, but also for conducting elections as per the schedule. And perhaps it deserves special applause for the smooth transition, through the appointment of caretaker governments both at the national and provincial levels. It is unfortunate, that the PPP lost badly, despite its success in completing the term, amongst threats from the TTP, failing economy and huge foreign policy and security challenges.

Second major outcome that could be identified is the rationalization of all national political parties in Pakistan. Though it is generally being voiced both inside and outside the region, that Pakistan has voted Nawaz Sharif to power, an analysis of the seats that the PML-N has won, clearly projects that the seats for the National Assembly has been primarily from the constituencies in Punjab. Of the 123 seats that the PML-N has won, except for a few seats from KP, the rest had come primarily from Punjab. For the PPP, almost all its seats that it has won for the National Assembly have come from Sindh. Similarly, for the PTI of Imran Khan, majority of the seats it has won for the National Assembly has come from Khyber Pakutunkhwa.

Third major outcome, which could be easily identified, is the failure of religious political parties to make any significant impact. Though the last two general elections witnessed a decent growth in their contribution to the National Assembly, 2013 elections should have been a disappointment for the religious political parties. While the JUI (Fazlur Rahman) and Jamaat-e- Islami (JI) could manage to win ten and three seats respectively, rest of the religious parties could not capture a single seat. Perhaps, this election has cremat- ed whatever was left of the MMA.

Those who have been following the performance of the religious political parties in Pakistan would agree that in any free and fair elections, the Right did not have much of a success. They may have a strong street power, but it never materialised into seats, if the elections remained free and fair.

If the religious political parties did not perform well in the elections, nor did the liberal and secular parties, such as the PPP, ANP and MQM, which could be identified as the fourth major outcome of this election. For the PPP, it was almost a complete disaster. From being the ruling party for the last five years, all that the PPP could manage was 31 seats, that too only from Sindh. The implications of this election for the PPP should be a larger discussion; with no Benazir Bhutto and with a corrupt image for Zardari, the PPP will need nothing short of a miracle to bounce back, first within Sindh and second at the national level. Bilawal Bhutto is too far physically and emotionally from Pakistan, and especially from the PPP supporters.

The ANP, PPP’s partner performed worse. The party has been completely wiped off and decimated both at the national level, and in the KP province, which is its stronghold. Undoubtedly, the ANP was the primary target of the TTP and took most of the violence perpetrated by the Taliban before and during the elections. As a result, when compared to the other political parties, the ANP could not campaign that effectively. Though the TTP led violence could be considered as a reason for the ANP’s bad performance, the fact is, it could not project a coherent road map or win the support of people from its performance. All it could manage was a single seat for the National Assembly!

Though the MQM could manage 13 seats, mainly from Sindh, more data is needed to find out in which regions it has performed well and whether it has been able to retain the vote bank. PML- Q, the other liberal party could manage only two seats.

Fifth major outcome, when compared to above liberal political parties, is the substantial performance of Imran Khan and his PTI. His party has won 26 seats, few short of the PPP, but way ahead of the rest of other established political parties. Though he has secured most of seats from KP, he did manage to win a few from other provinces as well.

However, for someone who has been touted as the next Prime Minister, and an alternative for the PML-N in Punjab, Imran Khan and his PTI was a bubble that had burst. All he and his party could manage is a collation government in KP province.

Despite the above drawback, undoubtedly the PTI was a success story; along with the PML-N, both the political parties could be seen as right of the center in terms of ideology. Both are not exactly liberal political parties, and that could be the sixth major outcome of this election.

Seventh major outcome could be the relative stability in provincial assemblies. The biggest province Punjab will be ruled by the PML-N, with much ease, and Sindh by the PPP. There seems to be an understanding already in KP in letting Imran Khan’s PTI to form the government. Balochistan may remain the only province in terms of political stability within the Assembly.

Finally, the biggest outcome of the election was the general participation and the rejection of TTP’s threats. The violence has neither affected the outcome, nor the process; the people took part with enthusiasm and in big numbers. Perhaps, this could be a new beginning that Pakistan has been looking forward. Much will depend on how the process is taken forward by Nawaz Sharif and the provinces.

Courtesy : Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (http://www.ipcs.org)