When I talk to people about Manipur and my visits to our most well known northeast state, I usually see shock and awe on the faces of whoever is listening. The shock comes from the fact that I travel regularly, to a part of the country that’s known to be “so dangerous and life threatening”.The awe usually comes with a guilty confession of their ignorance “I never knew Manipur was so beautiful!”

While my words always speak happily about the land and people of Manipur, my thoughts are filled with sadness that stems from having seen some of the ground realities of the state and its people, first hand. To his or her credit, the average Manipuri studying or working outside the state, in places like Delhi and Bangalore, won’t talk to you about the terrible and seemingly hopeless problems that they and their families face back home. They’ll go about doing their whatever it is they’re doing, with a warm smile or cold aloofness, depending on their personalities.

They’re probably putting up a brave front and working very hard, to simply survive in a place that’s far from home, and supposed to be safer. Initial conversations with friends in Manipur about Manipur, were peppered with official acronyms, unofficial code words, and underlying tension all covered up with light hearted banter and jokes about the state of the people of Manipur, its periodic bandhs, the multiple UGs, and how anyone with the slightest opportunity was rushing off to work in mainland India, only to face discrimination and threats of other kinds out there.

However, as they realize that I have no political or business agenda in the State, and that I was only there to satisfy a karmic connection I seem to have with the northeast and its people, much deeper conversations happened with them. These conversations, spread over many kilometers of roads, many liters of hot and cold beverages, and even many hours sitting in a barricaded room, revealed deep scars, constant challenges, and the hopeless frustrations of almost everyone I met. Unanimously, they all blame the government and the non- government entities for the mess Manipur is in today.

So, what is the cause of the conflict in Manipur?

The core issues in the Manipur conflict, are of identity and territory; of different identities fighting for control and autonomy over the same territories.The problem started during the British rule over the subcontinent, and the Crown’s insensitive (calculated?) handling of the transition of power to the Government of India. Add to this, as the locals are quick to point out that “the insensitive and violent management of local sentiment and issues of the entire northeast region by subsequent governments in New Delhi”, didn’t help heal the wounds or solve the problems of the Manipuri people.

Over the years, the conflict has led to the breakdown of law, order, and governance in the state, creating further victims, who in turn have become protesters, and additional parties to the conflict. As a Manipuri friend of mine put it “There are so many groups and factions fighting in Manipur today, that we find it hard to remember who is fighting for what. We stay at home during bandhs nowadays due to fear of violence, but most of the time we don’t know who has called for it, or why”

Manipur has seen thousands killed over the decades, with atrocities committed by almost everyone involved, including State, non state, official and unofficial entities. Some of these entities operate openly in Manipur and its neighboring states, while others operate from across the border in Myanmar. Almost all of them are armed and trigger happy.

Reports as well as talk on the ground indicates that there are around 50 armed groups at play today, in the conflict over Manipur and its territories – both physical and emotional. yet, the people of Manipur are a disciplined lot, like most of the people in the northeast. They’re also friendlier and politer than mainland Indians, always quick to smile and help without expectations of anything in return. Service quality is decent in most shops and restaurants.

Imphal, when not shut by a bandh, is usually bustling with daytime activity, its streets filled with two wheeler and cycle-rickshaws and a generous sampling of Marutis, Hyundais and Boleros. Most neighborhoods comprise of low rise buildings, with the usual suspects of mobile repair shops, grocery stores, roadside eateries, multi brand home appliances stores, and roadside vends selling cheap Chinese products.

In contrast, all government buildings are fortified with barbed wires, steel doors, and armed guards all around. There is massive presence of armed forces everywhere, including the police, paramilitary forces, and the army. When you’re driving outside the city, it is quite normal to see sand bagged check posts at regular distances, road opening parties standing patiently on the roads, and armored personnel carriers of the army patrolling the highways. Topographically, Manipur is a valley filled with green fields, water bodies and small towns, surrounded by rich green hills on all sides. Imphal, with its historic Kangla Palace and Fort, rests bang in the middle of the valley and the State, and is perhaps the safest place to be, if you’re Meitei, or an outsider of unknown agenda.

The rest of the state, is no man’s land, especially if you are government, or an outsider like me. So, you don’t go there anywhere unannounced like to Senapati, Ukhrul or Chandel  if you don’t have friends there. This may sound harsh, coming from someone who says Manipur is the one of the most beautiful places on earth, but that’s the beginning of the irony that inhabits Manipur.

The uneconomical economy of Manipur

This dichotomy of Manipur is evident from the moment you check into a hotel (there are only a handful here). The two Classic hotels I stay at in Imphal, match up to the best of hotels I’ve stayed in around the country. yet there are always rooms available there, starting at 2-3 thousand rupees a night, with no hordes of business travellers or tourists landing up to indulge the hospitality.

Imphal is strategically located on Highway 39 (Now Asian Highway 1) which runs through the state and has potential to service Assam and Nagaland, as well as become the economic expressway to South East Asia, but that seems a distant dream. Most of the state’s 7,000-odd km road network is in pitiful condition, and when not closed due to some blockade or the other, it takes hours to travel distances that would take 20-30 minutes elsewhere.

Manipur is rich in Agriculture, and many essential crops and exotic fruits and vegetables grow here. yet we don’t hear anything about it, leave alone get to taste it in the rest of India. For those who love culture and nature, Manipur has some the most mesmerizing traditional dance forms I’ve seen in my life!It has some beautiful heritage sites like the Kangla Fort, and places of incredible natural beauty and wildlife, like Loktak Lake, and the world’s only floating national park, that is also home to the elusive Sanghai.

Ironically, Manipur produces some of the finest hospitality professionals in the country, and for the world, but tourism is almost non-existent here. Manipur has a literacy rate of almost 80%.Most of its citizens speak not only people doing the best they can with what’s available to them in the State.The undeniable truth is, Manipur holds untold, untapped wealth and potential not just of natural resources and tourism, but of talent that goes beyond the iconic Mary Kom. On the ground, everyone in Manipur, from the farmer to the shopkeeper, is a Mary Kom fighting some battle or the other every day, that too, with a smile.

The Manipuri narrative (it never seems like complaints) when delivered by locals to outsiders like me, is almost always delivered with a smile or a resigned chuckle, never with anger or aggression.And the narrative is always accompanied by genuine concern to ensure, that I’m well taken care of as a guest, of the people of Manipur. That says a lot for the real spirit of people of the people of Manipur, and it resounds with hope, for a state and people that deserve a lot more than what the past many decades have meted out to them.

By Mehernosh Shapoorjee Digital 5

Gurdwaras in Manchester extended a helping help and offered shelter to those affected and stranded by Tuesday’s deadly Manchester Arena blast.

“Sikh Temples in Manchester, UK offering food & accommodation. They are open for ALL people. #PrayForManchester #ManchesterArena #England,” tweeted Harjinder S Kukreja along with the address of the four Sikh temples located in the vicinity. The gurdwaras are Sri Guru Gobind Singh Gurdwara Educational & Cultural Center located at 57 Upper Chorlton Rd, Manchester M16 7RQ; Gurdwara Sri Guru Harkrishan Sahib located at 12 Sherborne St, Manchester M3 1FE, Dasmesh Sikh Temple located at 98 Heywood St, Manchester M8 0DT and Central Gurdwara Manchester located at 32 Derby St, Manchester M8 8Ry.

The locals in the area also took to Twitter to offer shelter to those affected. In what could be described as one of the worst terror attacks in Britain, at least 22 people were killed and dozens of other injured as a suspected suicide bomber carried out a carnage during an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester.

The explosion occurred near the foyer area of the arena in what is being reported as a “nail bomb attack”.

A man found dead at the scene is thought to be the probable suicide bomber, according to reports.

Last, England saw such a deadly terror attack was in 2005 when on July 7, terrorists carried out a series of coordinated suicide bomb attacks in central London which targeted civilians using the public transport system during the  rush hour. Fifty-two people were killed and over 700 more were injured in the attacks.

Also, in 2009, the Manchester police had thwarted a major terror bid to attack Manchester’s Arndale shopping centre on the busy Easter bank holiday weekend.

With up to 90,000 shoppers in or near the shopping center at the time, police believe an attack would have killed hundreds and maimed thousands.

A student identified as Abid Naseer, 29, who plotted the mass suicide bomb attack was jailed for 40 years in 2015.

 – OE News Bureau

Between the 16th-18th centuries, Brazil and Goa, both out- posts of the Portuguese imperialist outreach, had exchanges, which found reflection in the flora and fauna, food and dress as well as folk traditions of Brazil. The interesting similarities between folk traditions of ‘Boi Bumba’ in the north of Brazil and the Poikam Kudharai’ of South India draw attention to the strong under currents of cultural and popular exchanges that have taken place in the centuries by gone.Both are large developing countries, stable, secular, multi-cultural, multi-ethnic, large democracies as well as trillion-dollar economies, hence although the two countries are divided by geography and distance, they share common democratic values and developmental aspirations.

Considering the frequent Bilateral Interactions between India and Brazil in the recent years, India-Brazil bilateral relations are in a state of clearly discernible upswing, the Prestigious Awards, Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding for 2006 and Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disarmament and Development for 2010 conferred on President Lula of Brazil confers the shared vision of India and Brazil on an common ideology .

The constructive exchange of VVIPs, Ministerial and official-level visits in recent years clearly define the strengthening of bilateral relationship in various fields and forging of close cooperation and coordination in the multilateral arena, be in IBSA, BRICS, G-4, BASIC, G-20 summits and the recent BRICS Summit in Goa, India 2016 . An evolving bilateral order to name a many important few , the visits from India since vice President S. Radhakrishnan (1954), Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (1968), Prime Minister Narasimha rao (1992 for earth Summit), President K.R. Narayanan (1998), ,President Pratibha Patil (2008) and Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh (June 2012-for Rio+20 summit)., Shri Pranab Mukherjee, Minister of External Affairs (Feb 2008), Shri P. Chidambaram, Finance Minister from India (Nov 2008) ,Shri Jairam Ramesh, Honorable Minister of environment & Forests (to attend the BASIC Ministerial ), Mr. Jyotiraditya Scindia, Minister for State for Commerce and Industry (September 2010, April 2011), Mr. Sharad Pawar, Minister of Agriculture, Food and Civil Supplies, Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution )and other dignitaries and the honorable visits from Brazil to India since Celso Amorim, Foreign Minister of Brazil (April, July 2007 and September 2009) and as Defense Minister in February 2012, Minister of Industry and Foreign trade Mr. Miguel Jorge (March and October 2008) and Minister of Defence Nelson Jobin (March 2010),Foreign Minister Mr. Antonio Patriota visited India for IBSA Ministerial and Brazil-India JCM in December 2011 and VVIP visits of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1996),President Lula (2004, 2007 & 2008) ,President Dilma Rousseff in March 2012 to attend the 4th BRICS Summit and bilateral trade Summit and President temer in BrICS Summit on 2016 ,culminated in signing of the important Bilateral Agreements, MOUs , Extradition Treaty, Cooperation in Tourism, Space, S&T, Air Services, Oil and Natural Gas, Audio-Visual Co-production, Academic Exchanges, Infrastructure, Hunger and Poverty, Civil Defense and Humanitarian Assistance, Agriculture and Allied Sectors, Plant Health Protection, Human Settlements, Biotechnology, Technical Cooperation, Education, Metrology and Gender Equity.

On a sufficing visionary notes on the economic and commercial relations between the two countries and its bilateral trade crossing US $ 10 Billion in 2012 mark, states a historical note which includes – India’s imports: US$ 5,577 billion on Crude oil, copper sulfates, soya oil, Raw sugar, denatured alcohol, other minerals of copper and its concentrates, asbestos, valves, motor pumps, airplanes, wheat, precious and semi-precious stones and India’s exports: US$ 5,043 billion on Diesel oil, coke of coal, lignite or peat, equipment’s related to wind energy, engineering and electrical equipment, cotton and polyester yarns, naphtha, pigments, medicines and chemicals. Brazil is the most important trading partner of India in the entire LAC (Latin America and Caribbean) region. India and Brazil bilateral trade has increased substantially in the last two decades. However, the most impressive change is taking place now as the trade is becoming more diversified both geographically as well as qualitatively. In 2011 about two third of our bilateral trade of US$ 9.2 billion was oil products, whereas in 2012 this proportion has become less than half in our bilateral trade of US$ 10.6 billion.

India and Brazil have formed a bi- lateral trade Monitoring Mechanism (TMM) for periodic consultations. India signed a framework agreement with Mercosur in June 2003. the India Mercosur PTA entered into force on 1st June 2009 under which 450 items from each side will have duty reductions of 10% to 100%. Efforts are underway to broaden and deepen the India-Mercosur PTA and to link it, under IBSA to SACU as well.

India has also welcomed many Brazilian students under ITEC programme for training in communications, management and defense.

On the Cultural arena, The Brazilian interests in India are vast. Recently, the Brazilian Consulate in Mumbai organised a Brazilian Latin festival in Mumbai under the guidance of our versatile Consul General of Brazil in Mumbai, Ms Rosimar Suzano to portray the Cultural metamorphosis of Brazilian music as a Yogic fervor, performing arts and philosophy. on an extended note, a similar thread was woven too by Ms Suzano and the Ambassador to Brazil in India Mr Nunes on the 194th Anniversary of Brazilian National Day in Mumbai on 7th September 2016 , emphasizing on Sports and its bilateral connections with India during the curtain raiser of the Rio Olympics in Brazil 2016, where the Indian Contingent had a considerably large sports persons. Few of them from Maharashtra were specialty felicitated on the National Day of Brazil in association with Nena records and Productions and Mr Manish Tewari of ITV Networks (India News and News X TV Channels), India.

Nena Records and Productions, India and Brazil encompassed daily large segments in covering the numerous organizations, teaching Yoga all over Brazil in Ramakrishna Mission, ISKCON, Satya Sai Baba, Maharishi Maharshi Yogi and Bhakti Vedanta Foundation along with the wide coverage of sports segments of Brazilian and Indian athletes in Rio Olympics 2016 as special added episodes on Rio Olympics 2016.

Mahatma Gandhi is highly regarded in Brazil and the government and NGOs are trying to circulate the philosophy of non-violence among students, youth and even police. Statues of Mahatma Gandhi have been installed in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Londrina. The Brazilian cultural troupe had given splendid performances in India in 2008 and a large group of Indian artists gave several popular performances in several Brazilian cities in May-June 2011 in association with ICCR ( Indian Council of Cultural Research Ministry of Tourism Government of India )

the airing of the ‘telenovela’ and the popular Indian TV series ‘ Caminho Das Indias ‘(Paths to India) by the influntial O Globo television made a great impact in enhancing the consciousness of India in the Brazilian public mind and greatly contributed to the warmth and friendliness in the common masses of Brazil.

the Indian Association in Sao Paulo along with the Indian community of PIos /NrIs numbering 2000 in Brazil mainly comprising of professionals and businessmen, scientists/researchers in agriculture, physics regularly conduct bilateral events to further the bond between the two countries. A majority of them lives in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Manaus. the Indian Consulate General in Sao Paulo, the industrial and commercial hub of Brazil, was opened in 1996. the Brazilian embassy has been functional in India since 1949 and has Consulate General in Mumbai.

The Recent breakthrough on the 8th BRICS Summit 2016 marks a major step forward to the spirit of the Goa Declaration. the outcomes of the meetings of BRICS Labor and employment Ministers held on June 9 last year in Geneva and on September 27-28, 2016 in New Delhi, India and Brazil today initiated the text of the Social Security Agreement in Brasilia. the text establishes the rights and obligations of nationals of both countries and provides for equal treatment of the nationals of both countries and unrestricted payment of pensions even in the case of residence in the other contracting state (benefits export principle).

the SSA between India and Brazil once brought into force by early 2018,after completion of the ratification process in the respective counties will favorably impact the profitability and competitive position of Indian and Brazilian companies with foreign operations in either country by reducing their cost of doing business abroad. the SSA will also help promote more investment flows between the two countries. The Indian delegation was led by K. Nagaraj Naidu; Joint Secretary (Economic Diplomacy) of the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India and the Brazilian delegation was led by Mr. Benedito A. Brunca, Secretary (Social Security Policies), Ministry of Finance, Government of Brazil.

After holding wide ranging talks in the BRICS Summit in Goa with Brazilian President Michel Temer, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India deeply appreciated Brazil’s support to its actions in combating terror, noting both countries will work for early adoption of the Comprehensive Convention Against International terrorism (CCIT) by the UN. In the talks, Temer supported New Delhi’s bid for membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and conveyed to Modi that Brazil will work with other member countries of the elite bloc to facilitate India’s entry into it.

Modi said he has sought greater market access and investment opportunities for Indian products and companies in Brazil and was “thankful” for Temer’s “positive consideration”. Talking about Brazil’s priority to reviving the domestic economy, Modi said India can be a valuable partner in it. He welcomed Brazilian companies to come and invest in India and to forge long-term commercial partnerships. the two leaders also met a group of Ceos of top companies from both countries to explore ways to deepen economic engagement to progress in opening new areas of co- operation on drug regulation, agricultural research and cyber security issues. President temer and PM Modi also agreed to intensify and strengthen their coordination in important international fora and resolved to work closely at the United Nations, the G-20, G-4, WTO, BRICS and IBSA

on the the visit of the Brazilian delegation to Mumbai on Oct 2016 on a mission to explore new vistas for trade, commerce and investment, spearheaded Ms. Rosimar da Silva Suzano, Consul General of Brazil in Mumbai at the International Business round table organized by World trade Center Mumbai, All India Association of Industries, Apex Brasil and Ministry of Foreign Affairs Brazil at the World Trade Center Mumbai, confined that, “Brazil’s trade with India has immense scope for expansion which currently accounts for 1.21% of India’s total trade. the total trade between India and Brazil is at USD 6.69 billion in 2015-16. The market opportunities exist in the areas of food and drinks (coffee, tea, fruits, cocoa, and confectionary products), home and building (woods), machinery and equipment (vehicles and auto parts), mineral products and chemicals. Brazil has recently launched a new infrastructure Program, ‘Crescer’ (meaning ‘grow’) which will focus on concession, privatization and public-private partnerships, Brazil and India should rather look for complementarities and synergies between their respective markets and mind-sets in order to in- crease and upgrade their business potential. For more business to take place there should be more people to people exchanges. I am a strong believer of people-to-people relations to cement long-term and sustainable partnerships as under the ‘Make in India’ initiative, India is undergoing a series of reforms that are in the process of enhancing the competitiveness of the country.

Ms. Lara Gurgel, representing Apex- Brasil, said, “India and Brazil share a special relationship and tremendous opportunities lie between them especially in natural resources besides agriculture, food processing, oil & gas, mining, textile, spinning and with the successful conclusion of the 8th BRICS Summit in Goa, member countries should work towards the success of BRICS. Both Ms Suzano and Ms Gurgel appreciated the growth at a rate of 7.6 percent which is possible first and foremost by providing concession in freight costs.. they also emphasized on the technology segment which India requires and can be fulfilled through collaborative efforts with Brazil.

Adding further on the bilateral tie ups of India and Brazil, Rosimar Da Silva Suzano, Consul General of Brazil (Mumbai) stated that, “The BRICS, gave powerful impetus to the identification and development of specific bilateral and joint projects in strategic sectors such as agriculture, renewable energy, science and technology and paved sustainable and inclusive solutions to the global problems”,

Ms. Suzano while addressing a seminar on ‘BRICS-Challenges and opportunities’ organised jointly by Center for Latin American Studies, Goa University in collaboration with International Centre, Goa, emphasized, “that a stronger BRICS equals a more equitable world order as no country can by itself respond to today’s challenges, by pooling capabilities, resources and ideas over shared concerns BRICS is giving the world its contribution, at the same time ensuring its members a fair stake in the decision making process. She also recalled that 2008 global financial crisis confirmed the realization among the emerging economies that they should have a voice in the decision-making mechanisms put in place at the Bretton Woods Conference in the aftermath of the II World War that no longer met the demands of a globalized world economy. She advocated more reforms in global financial institutions and more investment in infrastructure in BRICS and emerging economies. With the New Development Bank (NDB), BRICS will have funds to finance infrastructure projects at the BRICS countries or in other emerging third world countries”

Describing Brazil as a proactive member of the BRICS, Ms. Suzano said, ‘Brazil saw BRICS as a window of opportunities not to be missed, and went on to recall that since inception, her country saw BRICS as an ideal space for dialogue, and consensus, identification of convergences and expansion of contacts and cooperation in specific sectors amongst its members. She said to handle issues of the global agenda the vision that is BRICS shall be open to constructively cooperate and engage with third countries as well as international and regional organizations. She also lauded the role of initiatives such as cultural exchanges, civil society dialogue and parliamentary meetings as having potential to generate new ideas of global governance and come up with inclusive solutions.

“BRICS offered a forum for deliberation and collective position taking a space to create a positive agenda and search for common ground within the international scene, an arena for intra co-operation in a gamut of subjects and sectors .Being an ardent supporter of multilateralism, she added ,”Brazil believes in the partnerships in different groupings”. the consul general said BRICS should have a collective response towards inter state wars, climate change and natural disaster. She admitted that BRICS has helped Brazil improve its bi- lateral trade to a great extent.

“At a time when the bilateral trade was mere 500 million dollars in 2005, it reached 11.5 billion dollars in 2014, despite the country’s economy being in doldrums,” she added.

to conclude on all the visionary and strong developments on Trade , Business , Economic and Cultural elevations, positive developments and ongoing growth between India and Brazil the visa issues need to be in- formed too to further the Indo Brazilian ties which states that under a bilateral agreement, diplomatic and official passport holders are exempted from visa for a stay of maximum of 90 days. And although there are no direct flights between India and Brazil, convenient connections are however available via Europe (London, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam), the US (New York and Chicago) and via Dubai. A Point to be pondered for an easy ‘Air viability’ for the Business and Corporate sectors of both Brazil and India for a smooth direct travel radar.

 – Carlyta Mohini (The writer is a leading Indo Brazilian Columnist on International Diplomatic issues and Politics, World Trade /Tourism/Heritage/Music and Global Fusion Vocalist (ICCR) /Songwriter)

Legendary investor George Soros has said that the Indian economy is under pressure because of rising inflation. Soros, the chairman of Soros Fund Management, “India is in a different position because India has very good domestic based growth. But inflation is a much bigger threat for India than it is for the United States and the developed world,” he said.

Soros said that the pressure on commodities continued to be strong but discounted projections that pegged crude oil price touching $200 per barrel in the short term. Soros said that rising commodity prices is likely to affect emerging economies like China and India. “China is in danger of running into wage price spiral because the authorities seem to have lost control of the situation,” he said, adding that there will be pressure on the Indian stock markets too. Soros attributed the high food inflation in many emerging markets to global warming. “I think that the pressure on food prices is a consequence of global warming. And that of course is a great danger for the world. And not enough … not enough is being done about stopping global warming. And that is to me … one of the most disturbing issues,” he said. Soros said that China’s growth had been been phenomenal but there might be worries in the short term. “India has started growing significantly faster than it used,” he said, but the growth needs to be inclusive. “I actually think that both developments are very real. But particularly for China which is growing so rapidly it is so easy for it to get off the rails. And I think there is a danger…China is not a democracy. And therefore if things get off the rail …they could get off the rail very far … be- cause they don’t have a mechanism for … to … for changing the Government … or changing the leadership. So it is something to worry about. But so far it has been absolutely phenomenal growth. And I think India also has started growing significantly faster than it used. So those are I think positive developments … not without some shadows… in terms of income distribution … differences be- tween rich and poor … and so on. But on the whole I think positive,” he said.

Soros was more confident about the global economy though. He said, “You have had a big boom in commodities and as a result of which the deflationary pressures (in US and Europe) have disappeared. This is very welcome news for the United States because you still have quantitative easing going on. So actually a result you have negative real interest rates. That is very good for the stock market and that is what you have seen in the strength of the stock market.”

Soros said that the rising commodity prices will not get out of hand because “as soon as the quantitative easing (in the US) ends, interest rates are going to go up quite sharply in the developed world. And that is going to choke off the recovery. So it is a rather temporary movement now that you have this. So I am not so sure about inflation really becoming that serious a threat be- cause it will choke off the global recovery.”

Soros said that the Euro had emerged as a source of disruption in Europe and is likely to give rise to anti-European sentiments. “The Euro was supposed to bring about convergence among the European countries. It actually worked the other way. We have divergence. You know Germany doing very well typically. Spain in a financial collapse and there is unemployment. So you now have two speed Europe. And if that is allowed to continue for a number of years it inevitably will create tensions and anti-European sentiment. So I see a political danger but not all immediate … I am not talking about tomorrow. I am talking in terms of three to five years but that … it should not be allowed to continue like that for that long because it could eventually cause a lot of damage,” he said.

 – OE News Bureau

Mayawati, the most authentic leader of the Dalits of Uttar Pradesh, has thrown a political bombshell by asking for splitting the state. This announcement has set the cat among the pigeons and all her political opponents are confused, even politically paralyzed, because they are not sure about the direction of public opinion on the issue of a four-fold division of Uttar Pradesh.

The real difficulty is faced by all India parties like the Congress and the BJP because every specific demand for the creation of a new state like Telangana cannot be treated as an ‘isolated’ demand since regionalists and sub regionalist political formations in every state can also launch movements for such division of states to satisfy political ambitions of powerful local groups.

The Congress cannot open this Pandora’s box because it will find it impossible to handle the conflicting demands of various segments demanding a state for themselves. But the point is that reorganisation of states is an integral part of the ongoing democratic process of India, even though regionalists and subregionalists are fighting for their ‘little empires’ and only the Hindutva forces are ideologically committed to completely redrawing India’s map, with the RSS’ idea of ‘Hindu, Hindi, Hindustan’, and reduce cultural and language-based diverse states to the level of mere ‘administrative units’.

There is a need for close scrutiny of the functioning of ‘new small states’ like Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh out of the reorganisation of united Punjab or states like Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Uttarakhand or the small states of Goa or Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura in north- east India. The ‘new small states’ present a very mixed picture on the basis of their performance and actual governance. The six small states of north-east India are dependent on the central government for funding their developmental programmes due to their limited availability of resources. The central government has been continuously involved in resolving inter-state and intrastate disputes and social conflicts that have plagued these states.

The smaller size and minuscule political representation in the Lok Sabha makes these states develop a feeling of neglect and alienation from the main- stream. The idea of small states is, in practice, full of problems as revealed by these six states of the north east. Further, within the state assemblies of these states, floor-crossing and defections are quite common. Thus, ‘limited representation’ of small states in the Lok Sabha acts as a handicap for them at the centre of power, and within the state assembly, with a smaller number of MLAs, governments can be destabilised easily. The BJP, on its part, has to answer about the actual functioning of three new states created in 2008 because the mining mafia in Jharkhand has been patronised by leaders of new states like Shibu Soren or the Mundas. The small states have not at all been models of good governance and their performance is comparable to the ‘mother states’ from which they were separated.

The new states have been created in regions where a strong cultural or linguistic bond did not exist among the majority of inhabitants of that state. Dravidian cultural ties are a uniting factor among Tamilians or Kannadigas; cultural affinity among the people of Karnataka or the Malayali cultural reference point for Kerala keeps them united and the demand for separation has not been raised by any powerful section in these three states. The Punjabi language and culture is a cementing factor in keeping Punjab united but Hindi has lost its cultural vigour and people of the Hindi states do not consider language based culture a uniting factor. Hence, strong cultural and linguistic affinity acts as a brake against separatist demands.

It is appropriate to conclude with a reference to the seminal work of Robert Dahl, Democracy and Size, in which he conclusively proves that development, democracy and good governance are ‘size neutral’, and big or small hardly make a difference. This important argument is valid for all societies. A functional system of governance in every country should reflect the specific social realities. Therefore, India’s requirements can be met only if a political system is able to harmonise and accommodate the needs and aspirations of multiple diverse cultural communities.

The unifying democratic, secular and federal central government is needed to keep such a diverse society united, and a balance or an equilibrium can be achieved by creating federal units not because ‘small parties have demanded small states’, but by evolving a political mechanism of arriving at a consensus on the need for a new small state. Leaders of small parties like Nitish Kumar or Ajit Singh have welcomed Mayawati’s announcement, but such demands are reflective of the desire of small party leaders to hold on to power in their areas of influence.

 – OE News Bureau

Rahul Gandhi is a known face of Indian politics. He is virtually heading India’s largest political outfit now. We are regularly debating Rahul effect in Indian polity on national and regional media. But he has never opened up his mind to people at large. Rahul’s politics has been stuck in this gear for a long time. He chose for himself the job of the Congress’ big picture man shortly after his electoral debut in 2004, working on long term strategic goals for the party, even as his mother, Congress president Sonia Gandhi, looked after its day-to-day affairs. The imminent change at the helm of the Congress promises the beginning of a cultural transformation in the Grand Old Party. Away from the public glare, Rahul Gandhi has set in motion a silent revolution in the Indian Youth Congress (IYC) and National Students Union of India (NSUI) by holding free and fair elections a first for any political party.

A few months ago, he surprised his party colleagues by suggesting elections to the Congress Working Committee (CWC). But entrenched interests and party chief Sonia Gandhi’s desire to make the CWC inclusive to balance regional, religious and caste demands stymied the proposal. The party’s youth and student wings, which had acquired the tag of notoriety during Sanjay Gandhi’s stewardship (a legacy they hadn’t been able to shake off), are being shaped into a decent and sensitive cadre. Youth Congress members, in fact, are said to be so disciplined consultant to its full-time leader. Will Rahul be able to swap his much vaunted grassroots level rejuvenation vision for a bit of medium term political pragmatism and the ability to manage crises on an almost daily basis?

Rahul has an experience of professional training in strategy consulting combined with a cautious, hesitant, and risk-averse temperament meant that he shunned short to medium term challenges, such as a stint in the Union government, for long term projects such as rejuvenation of the Congress’ youth and student wings, reviving the party in Uttar Pradesh were the Congress has been reduced to a fringe player, and brand-building aimed at projecting himself as a mascot of the poor. This orien where he launched the Congress’ 2012 Uttar Pradesh poll campaign, Rahul has shown the willingness to make the transition from the Congress’ political strats now that they are scared even of talking to the media to tom tom their achievements.

Rahul is rewriting the political lexicon of the Congress in his own way. In a revolutionary decision, he engaged the Foundation for Advanced Management of Elections (FAME), led by former election commissioners J. M. Lyngdoh and K. J. Rao, to conduct the polls in the youth and student wings. “Rahul has ensured criminals do not enter politics,” says Rao. Rahul has proved himself as the practitioner of a new brand of politics not foulmouthing opponents, ignoring jibes and barbs, and choosing a civilised engagement with detractors as well as his seniors in politics.

But on a broader platform, he is unwillingness to put himself in the line of fire. With the Congress confirming his ascent to a role of greater importance, Rahul’s approach to politics requires a serious change of course, and very quickly. After the election rally in Phulpurtation in his thinking showed up as a refusal to get into burning issues.

For instance, when he was asked whether he would personally intervene to resolve the Kashmir agitation of 2010 that witnessed unprecedented stone throwing protests in the valley, he responded, “My focus is on bringing youngsters into politics and I think that’s a very important thing for the future of this country. I genuinely don’t like to, sort of, move from one problem to another. I like to settle down, understand a problem in detail and then work on that problem. Solving Kashmir is not a part time problem. It is a full time problem.”

Rahul’s standard response to tricky questions whether it has been about inflation or political alliances had always been that his job is limited to being the Congress general secretary for the Indian Youth Congress and National Students’ Union of India. He then had the luxury of picking and choosing his canvas. It is a completely different picture now, to put it mildly. Other than electioneering in Uttar Pradesh and taking the Congress to a respectable tally in the upcoming assembly elections there, he has to pull the Congress and the United Progressive Alliance government, which it heads at the Center, out a series of crises.

To begin with, he has to find ways to arrest the sense of drift that seems to have become the UPA government’s leitmotif and salvage the remaining two and a half years of its term. He has to develop a working relationship with the Congress’ allies from the veteran M Karunanidhi to the tempestuous Mamata Banerjee. Then he has to battle the perception of the government having completely been overtaken by corruption scandals with neither the 2G scam nor Anna Hazare and his cohorts likely to fade from the scene quickly.

Then there are pressing issues such as the demand for a separate Telangana, which has been on the boil for far too long and is now waiting to explode. On the economic front, he has to find a way to put the reform process back on track if India has to make it through the looming global economic crisis. Whether it is in foreign direct investment in key sectors such as retail, disinvestment, or labour reforms, the government is waiting for the political go ahead. Then there is the Opposition, which will be ever on the lookout for any slip-up on his part to bolster their charge about him being naive and callow.

In the few instances that he has grappled with real-time problems in the past, rather than being sequestered in the comfort zone of long-term thinking, he has stumbled. His performance during the Anna Hazare agitation proved that he had a long way to go as far as reacting instinctively to tricky situations goes. His speech in Parliament, in which he propounded what he described as the “game changing” idea of making the Lokpal a constitutional body, did not help in diffusing the crisis at hand.

In fact, it made him sound completely off-key and unable to connect with the rising sentiment against corruption in urban India. He managed to bungle his Bhatta Parsaul initiative in Uttar Pradesh by insinuating murder of villagers in the backdrop of clashes between the state police and farmers over land acquisition a charge that could not be proved conclusively.

One big difference between his earlier position and the one he finds himself now in is his own willingness to play a larger role in the Congress’ affairs. Maybe he has no choice, given the reports about his mother’s failing health. He is taking on much wider responsibilities as far electioneering for the coming round of polls in Uttarakhand and Punjab go. He has taken on full responsibility of the Congress’ 2012 UP bid, which saw him launch the party’s campaign from his great grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru’s old constituency, leaving little doubt of the kind of role the Congress has in mind for him. Rahul requires experienced hands to guide him through the sharp bends that lie ahead. However, until now, his relationship with Congress elders has been indifferent at best and confrontational at worst.

He has not hidden his wider discomfort with the nature of politics in the Congress that revolves around entitlement and dynasty, despite his own acceptance of the dynastic mantle as the next Nehru Gandhi heir. Now, he may have no choice but to put his pet ideas of professionalizing and modernizing the Congress on the back-burner and turn to his mother’s advisors.

While his own team of non-political advisors such as Kanishka Singh and Sachin Rao are as untested as he is, there are some senior leaders such as Jairam Ramesh and Digvijay Singh who have worked with him on issues such as land acquisition and UP respectively. They may play a bigger part in the days to come. The most precious advice will, however, come from his mother and his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

Rahul looks set to continue with the left of centre economic position that has become his mother’s calling card, at least in the short term. In his speeches he has hinted that the Congress can fight the negative fall out of corruption and inflation in middle class India with UPA government’s welfare schemes such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, the proposed food security bill, and the Unique Identification number scheme which he sees as a key empowering contribution of the government towards improving the efficiency of the public delivery system.

The Rahul Gandhi era in the Congress promises to forge continuity with the present rather than usher in a new era in politics that his father’s initial years in power held promise of but never delivered. Ironically, Rahul has always maintained that one of the key factors that led him into politics was the urge to pick up from where his father left off. But the key question is that Congress is riding on the brand Manmohan right wing ideology with a great electorate success and Rahul is endorsing his policy on all major issues that contradicts his family Nehruvian policy. Similarly, his views on foreign policy, internal security, defense policy are ambiguous. Rahul Gandhi needs to clarify stand to the nation, earlier the better.

 – Prakhar Prakash Mishra

Once again, Anna and Lokpal bill – V.S. Sardesai

Since Anna Hazare’s current movement on corruption started from April 2011 to be precise, I was always baffled, confused and puzzled on two issues viz. Anna himself and Lokpal and I had expressed my doubts on every occasion I had written on the above subjects ; in the article ‘The Myth of Lokpal’, I have said that if one studies coolly the sequence of the events, one will find that the movement is nothing but a very well and carefully planned strategy to divert the attention of the people from the main issues that they are facing today and which the top icons want to avoid at any cost if possible because of the personal losses they would be suffering otherwise and that Anna even though may be the main actor in the drama may not be responsible in formulating the strategy though he may be a willing partner to the same; I had however decided to close the subject so far as I am concerned as the matter was discussed many times; but the recent disclosures on the subject made me change my decision.

Till he started the movement sometimes in April 2011, Anna was known mostly in Maharashtra as an honest and sincere social worker and leader and his field of work was mostly confined within Maharashtra. In his career until then, he has never entered into the national scene leave aside international. But as soon he started this movement against corruption by undertaking fast unto death he became not only a national leader but also got international fame. He was not only hailed as second or modern Gandhi by the media but also American government asked our government not to take any action against him. The media started giving him extraordinary exposure and publicity all 24×7 hours a day. In fact he had also started a new venture in 1991 called ‘Bhrastachar Virodhi Jan Andolan’ BVJN- (Public Movement against Corruption) and had undertaken fasts also; but at that time no such publicity was given to him. This was one thing which puzzled me. Why should a foreign government take so much interest in the internal matter and take cognizance of such events? In fact undertaking fasts is not a new thing for India and for Anna; and why should the media give so much extraordinary exposure and publicity to him only this time calling him second Gandhi? Is it an impartial reporting by the media or there is some purpose or design behind it and if so who is behind all this? If we consider the sequence of events, it will be found that virtually within one day he jumped from a regional social worker to national leader and got international fame; I don’t think there is anyone else who metamorphosed so fast from regional to national scene getting international fame. What is the secret?

Second thing which puzzled me is that even though Anna had started the new venture against corruption( BVJN ) in 1991 and the Lokpal Bill is pending in the Parliament since 1968 that is much earlier than the starting of his venture he never even for once has taken up the matter of Lokpal bill during the last twenty years even though he had undertaken fasts earlier against corruption and now only all of a sudden he not only has taken up the matter of Lokpal but agitated to get it passed immediately and goes on fast. If it was so urgent why did he not agitate to get it passed for all the twenty years since he started the new venture against corruption? And that is why I had always expressed my reservations and was skeptic about the real intentions and purposes of the Team Anna’s this movement and agitation against corruption. The very fact that he did not agitate for passing of the Lokpal Bill earlier for the last twenty years or so, even though he had started his movement against the corruption in 1991 i.e. after more than twenty years since the Lokpal Bill was first introduced in the Parliament, clearly shows that he never knew anything about lokpal or about the Lokpal Bill as a means to remove corruption till someone briefed him about it. The question therefore is when did he first came to know about Lokpal and how? Surely at that time there was no Team Anna. The question is why such an issue which was sidetracked for more than forty years became so important and urgent all of a sudden just like Anna Hazare becoming a national leader with international fame from a regional social worker virtually within a day? Is there any relation or connection between the two? I had given my interpretation in my earlier articles especially in “The Myth of Lokpal”, The Anna Phenomenon” etc, purely based on the sequence of events and logic. However the recent disclosures made by Raju Parulekar, ex blogger of Hazare and Shambhu Dutt, the 94 years Gandhian proved my fears to be correct.

Raju Parulekar has accused the Anna team calling them ‘the gang of four’ of using Hazare as demi God to further their interest and holding the government to ransom; so also he says that this gang of four has misguided the people to believe that Jan Lokpal Bill if passed will remove the corruption. I think they have misguided not only the people but also Anna in believing that Jan Lokpal Bill is the answer to corruption. In fact Parulekar’s clarifications have solved many of my doubts. Firstly it explains the mystery of the extraordinary publicity and exposure given to Anna by the media day and night making him second mahatma and a national leader within a day giving international fame or making him a demi-God in Parulekar’s words. Secondly how they chose Lokpal Bill as an issue for the agitation was solved by Shanbhu Dutt who was fasting for implementation of Lokpal Bill and who broke his fast at the request of Team Anna promising him to take up the matter themselves. Many questions however have remained unanswered. Firstly when did Anna came to know about Lokpal Bill and how or who briefed Anna about the Lokpal Bill and why? Secondly when did the team meet Anna for the first time and why? Why should the team take so much interest in removal of corruption only now? I hope we will get the answers to these questions also in the due course. In the mean time we can only guess.

I feel the answers lie and the mystery will be solved if we study the past events. The key lies in the Baba Ramdevji’s relentless efforts and movement of bringing back the illegal and black moneys deposited by some shameless Indians in foreign banks especially in Swiss banks and declaring it as national wealth and exposing the names of such traitors and the Swiss government’s declaration to disclose the names of such depositors if requested by the concerned government; I think this made such depositors panicky and they started thinking of finding a way out to scuffle the movement and divert the attention of the people from the main issues; and Anna’s fast and the Jan Lokpal Bill appears to be its result. How it happened, we can only guess. Either these depositors some of whom are very influential and holding topmost positions in the government and the ruling parties approached the team members who are NGO’s directly or through their foreign donors to implement a strategy formulated by them or requested them to formulate such strategy to find a way out. In either case it resulted in formulating a strategy to hijack the movement of Ramdevji and divert the attention of the masses from its main issues of bringing back the moneys from the foreign banks and disclosing the names of such depositors. For this, the team required two things; one, a person commanding respect and faith of the people and who can convince the people and whom the people will follow blindly and secondly an equally or more attractive and important issue as that is being preached by Ramdevji. They found the person in Anna Hazare; the difficulty however was that Anna was only a regional social worker; they got over the difficulty by giving him extraordinary publicity through media day and night making him a second Gandhi that Anna became a household name within a day. The difficulty of issue was also solved by adopting the other issue of Ramdevji viz. corruption which was preferable to disclosing the names of the foreign banks account holders; but the question was that corruption being an abstract issue ultimately would not stand against the concrete issue of bringing back the moneys from foreign banks. They wanted something to show that concrete steps are being immediately taken to end the corruption; they chose Lokpal Bill which was pending in Parliament for more than forty years. They amended it to fool the people that they are making it strong calling it as Jan Lokpal Bill. But to their dismay they found that one Shambhu Dutt, an old Gandhian of 94 years has already started a fast for its passing and implementation even though there was no publicity for him in the media. Not to be discouraged they approach Dutt requesting him to withdraw his fast, promising to get the bill passed and this is how the whole melodrama on corruption started.

They must have approached Hazare with their plan of agitating against corruption by getting the new Lokpal Bill as drafted by them which they called as Jan Lokpal Bill passed in Parliament and which, they must have told him, will remove corruption, may be without dis- closing their real intention or purpose. They must have also exploited his weakness for fame and Hazare must have agreed believing them and what they have said as corruption was also an issue which was dear to him without going through the bill as drafted by them or trying to find out whether what they say is true or not. He must also felt very happy as he would become a national leader from regional social worker and for being called second Gandhi.

But the difficulty is that every human being has got certain limitations and becomes successful only if he works within his limits and knowing his limitation; if he crosses his limits for any reason whatsoever he gets exposed; the same thing happened with Hazare; it seems that he is carried away by the propaganda made by his team making him in the words of Parulekar a demi God and started thinking high of himself without understanding his limitation with the result that he is slowly getting exposed. It now appears that Dutt is regretting for having handing over the baton to Anna team may be because he might be feeling lack of sincerity of purpose.

The way they made Anna a national leader and a Mahatma and giving publicity to him every day, in the same way they made the of Lokpal Bill which was pending in the Parliament for more than forty years and which was drafted on the basis of recommendation Santhanam Committee for administrative reforms for removing maladministration and mismanagement in the government, as if it was drafted for ending corruption in the society or at least reducing corruption to more than sixty per cent. They further dramatized the situation by drafting another bill, calling it as Jan Lokpal Bill in place of the one drafted by the government by giving the Lokpal draconian powers saying that the Lokpal as drafted by the government was toothless lion forgetting the fact that in India giving more powers can be a source of further corruption and in spite of making provisions, it will be difficult to remove a person once appointed especially to a high post. They ignored or rather overlooked the fact that the creation of Lokpal was recommended especially to prevent corruption by Legislators and ministers as it was difficult to prosecute them if they indulged in corruption and that Lokpal is only a prosecutor to prosecute a corrupt government servant or official specially when the act does not make any changes in the anti corruption laws under which such officials are ultimately to be prosecuted in a court of law and still they misguide the people saying that if Jan Lokpal Bill is passed , it will remove at least 60% of the corruption from the society as if corruption is there in the society only because there is no such Jan Lokpal Act passed.

Many a time people ask me when I ridicule the Jan Lokpal Bill, to suggest other ways if passing of Lokpal Bill is not the answer to Corruption. The fact is that corruption is a social problem and like other social problems such as farmers’ suicides or communal riots it cannot be solved only by making laws such as for example Prevention of Suicide Act or Communal Violence Act. It should be solved by studying the problem in depth, finding out the cause and the appropriate remedy. In case of corruption people would not like to pay bribe for the fun of it. They would like to get their work in time and not waste their time unnecessarily. And when it is not done they pay the bribe to get the work done in time. This can be avoided by fixing responsibility and accountability for not doing the work within a certain time. Of course there is Right of Information Act to find out discrimination. If this is done most of the complaints will be solved. I don’t think that any social worker will be so naïve as not to know this unless he is motivated by some other consideration. I think Anna has failed miserably to see the real intentions of his team or this gang of four and blindly following their advice, happy to see his name and photo everyday in the news papers and media; I only feel sorry for him.

 – OE News Bureau

The insurgencies that impacted the Indian landscape till early this decade were generally in isolation. Though, they like all insurgencies had external links, the internal linkages between them were at best tenuous. The Khalistan insurgency could be extinguished because of its unidimensional nature. It was confined to a specific geographic area and was supported by a specific group of people, easy to identify. Their cadre base was low.

The Kashmir militancy had not fully reared its head. The ISI patronage and support was well known. The pioneering ideologues of the movement were based abroad and did not belong to the segment of the community, which provided the foot soldiers. The objective of the insurgency was to carve out another theocratic state. The same can be said about insurgencies in the Northeast (NE). They too were supported by China, but in a manner that the deniability factor could be maintained. A separate country was their objective and not the destruction of the Indian state. The acts of terrorism in these insurgencies were to intimidate the local populace and preempt any support to the security forces.

Over the years, there is fusion of insurgency and terrorism. It first took the shape of proxy war with territorial objectives. Therefore, when the Indian Security establishment was faced with the Kargil misadventure, it initially appeared bewildered because it could not appreciate that a low intensity conflict could assume the shape of a conflict, which was constricted in limit and scope due to internal and external considerations and pressures. The overall military superiority that India enjoyed vis-a-vis Pakistan could not deter the latter.

Convergence of Terror

The proxy war waged by Pakistan and China are now converging on Delhi. This proxy war has various terrorist groups as its main tool. The main instruments of this war are none other but some Indians who are allured by ideology or money or both. They have been convinced that India in its present form is a demonic state and needs to be destroyed.

The Maoists, Pakistan based terrorist groups, and terrorist groups in Northeast, Punjab and J&K are now in collaboration. They have forged a nexus for training, procurement of arms, establishing external linkages and providing safe havens to each other. They are leveraging on one another’s strength and to reach their common objective is to destroy the Indian State.

When the Army Chief talks about a two front situation, he must realize that India is already facing a multi front situation in terms of proxy war being waged by China, Pakistan and other inimical powers. This multi front proxy war is rendering the country hollow from within. The inimical elements within the country are debilitating both our military resolve and our conventional capability.

The security of a country is the harmony between internal security and external security. Pakistan is collapsing because it always viewed internal security from the prism of external security. India on the other hand has been notorious in ignoring the external dimensions of internal security problems and treating them as that of law and order. If the Maoists, who are tramplingthe heart of India, and the Pak sponsored jihadis of Kashmir as well as terrorists groups in Punjab, and the China backed insurgent groups of Northeast, who have been trying to severe the head and limbs respectively, are now acting in concert, the internal security situation is grim.

A Super Power like the Soviet Union with its massive military capability, collapsed because it could not harmonize internal security with external security. India must not repeat the mistake. The Indian Army must revisit its threat perception and the very definition of ‘enemy’.

Joint terrorist training camps

The arrest of two Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) leaders of Manipur Arun Kumar Singh and Dalip Singh in October 2011 exposed the emerging links between the militant organizations in the NE, Kashmir, Let, and the Maoists. They revealed the ongoing effort on part of these groups to form a ‘Strategic United Front’ since they had the common objective to overthrow the Indian government. They reckon that it is only collectively that they would be able to take on the might of the Indian State. They also revealed the plans of setting up a ‘Joint Training Camp’ in Myanmar. The Times of India on 08 October 2011 quoted official sources “ISI and PLA are in touch and supply Maoists with arms. They are supposedly using China as the alternative route.”

The official sources also claim to have photographic evidence of Maoist cadres from six Indian states being trained by the PLA of Manipur, in Orissa and Jharkhand.This author has learnt through top intelligence sources that the Chinese have supplied a weapon manufacturing facility to the Kachin Insurgents in Myanmar. This facility is manufacturing replicas of AK-47, which is being supplied to all terrorist groups in India including the Maoists.

The latest recovery of explosives from a car on 12 October 2011 has also exposed the links between ISI, Lashkar- e-Toiba and Babbar Khalsa. Their objective was to target Delhi.

Taking into consideration, the seizures made by the security forces in the last few years, two important facts emerge – first, that Babbar Khalsa, the militant outfit, which carried out the killing of the Punjab Chief Minister Beant Singh has been under the revival mode, under the patronage of ISI, and second, that the organization has no dearth of sophisticated arms and explosives supplied by the ISI.

The revival of Babbar Khalsa and Khalistan insurgency received impetus after the creation of the Pakistan Gurudwara Prabhandhak Committee under the Chairmanship of Lt Gen Javed Nassir, former ISI chief. He is instrumental in forging the link between LeT and the Babbar Khalsa.

In October 2010, the Indian government had alleged that the Maoists of Nepal (PLA) had been imparting training to Indian Maoists on Nepal’s soil. Further, the Maoists were receiving training from LeT instructors in these camps. There was information of 234 Maoists training in Nepal under the supervision of Naxalite leaders like Vinod Gurung, Prakash Mehto and LeT members like Razak Khan and Latif Khan, who hail from Karachi.

In August 2010, Karnataka and Andhra Police, following four arrests in Hyderabad and two in Bangalore that the ISI through the ‘D-company’ had managed to establish links with the Maoists terrorists in the country. There were plans to invite Maoist leaders to Dubai to coordinate terrorist activities in India.

The spearheads of the modern terror network are people, who enjoy or have been conferred respectability by way of international awards or member- ship of NGOs ostensibly engaged in public cause. Some of these ideologues are active in forging links between various military groups. A noted Human Right activist, based on telephonic intercepts, has come under the scanner of intelligence agencies for trying to bring together various terrorist groups at the behest of Pakistan.

Even in the national capital the ideologues of the Maoists, Kashmiri and NE separatists have come together on a common platform on many occasions. Their agenda is common, i.e. to weaken the resolve of the Indian State to fight terrorism. It is in this backdrop that their diatribes against the state, the security forces, and the Armed Forces Special Power Act should be viewed. This Act, they feel is the most robust tool in preserving the unity of India.

The Maoist agenda

It is pertinent to note that when Anna’s agitation was at its peak, the eternal fast of Sharmila Irom of Manipur, was consistently highlighted. The focus was not she, but the removal of Armed Forces Special Power Act from Manipur. One of the active members during the agitation is known for his ULFA links. During the same period, the so called Lawyer civil activist and core member of the Team Anna, in one of the television channels, had categorically stated that the days of elected representatives are over, thereby implying that the India must jettison multiparty democracy.

He was only articulating the Maoist agenda. He also had then spoken that it is the Kashmiris who should decide whether they want to be part of India or not. Such was the hysteria during that period that these statements were lost in the din and did not receive adequate attention. The same gentleman has now advocated plebiscite in Kashmir and repealing of the Armed Forces Special Power Act.

One of the members of the Team of interlocutors on Kashmir has enjoyed the hospitality of Fai Foundation, headed by Syed Ghulam Nabi Fai the face of the Kashmir separatist cause in the United States. The Fai Foundation is funded by the ISI. It was a foregone conclusion that the team of interlocutors would recommend more autonomy for Kashmir. The timing of the submission of the report and utterances of the lawyer is not a mere coincidence.

The most formidable spearheads for convergence of terror in India are there in the media and amongst people who fancy to be called as intellectuals. The ‘terrorism economy’ is also formidable and has the ability to sustain some big media houses and other public platforms. They decry the Indian State, but ‘Misuse the Freedom of Speech’.

The entire region in the surround of India is in unprecedented geopolitical flux. The US-Pakistan strategic partnership, which ensured the survivability of the latter since its inception is now under tremendous strain, arguably on the verge of collapse. The internal problems of Pakistan seem to be intractable. The specter of the country’s split is haunting. Pakistan’s strategic maneuvre space is getting increasingly constricted. The conventional tools available in the hands of Pakistan in leadership to alter the dangerous geopolitical discourse are in disarray or blunted.

It is not India, but Pakistan’s machinations in Kashmir and Afghanistan,which has brought the country to this juncture. The emerging strategic partnership between India and the US, and India and Afghanistan has unnerved a tottering Pakistan. The only recourse available to Pakistan is to destabilize India by leveraging on all terrorist groups, i.e. the Maoists, who are active in one-third of India, and the terrorist groups in Kashmir, Punjab, Northeast, and Pak based terrorist groups and crime syndicate of the Dawood Ibrahim.

In this there is a congruency of interests between Pakistan and China. China too is not comfortable with the Indo-US strategic partnership and consequently the direction of the geopolitical discourse in the region. It has very high strategic stakes in Pakistan as well as in the Indian Ocean, particularly in the Bay of Bengal, where it is seeking presence by way of ports on Myanmar’s western coast for convenient supply of oil from Gulf for its energy needs. It is for this reason that China is engaged in thwarting India’s ‘Look East’ outreach by increasingly brazen sup- port to Northeast terrorist groups and the Maoists.

Economic consequences

The convergence of Pakistan and China backed terror and spearheaded by the ideologues has dangerous portends for India. While the aim of this terror is to paralyze India, its main focus is shifting to its heart, i.e. the National Capital. In all probability terrorist attacks in India are likely to become more vicious, more deadly, more wide- spread and more frequent. This proxy war has disastrous economic consequences. There is a thriving parallel terrorist economy. The Maoists are disrupting train services at will. Bandhs orchestrated by Maoists are having crippling effect on the economy and the livelihood of the people.

Corporate houses are paying ransom to the Maoists because the State cannot enforce its writ in large chunks of the hinterland. The Maoists menace is making thermal power plants starve for coal. India is becoming a dangerous place on this earth. Investors are being deterred. The Indian state machinery has become inured to the insecurity of the people. It probably feels that time itself will resolve the problem. The internal war against terror is being fought in a disjointed and half-hearted manner. The resolve mechanism and instruments to fight this convergence of terror is in disarray.

If this war is not won, India despite its conventional war making capability, will collapse. We are fighting the war with wrong tools, wrong mindset, and misplaced ideas of war, oscillating between law and order approach and internal security approach. While there is convergence of various terrorist groups, the Indian authorities have a compartmentalized approach on the specious argument of federalism. It’s a war and given its import and spread, the internal enemies can only be defeated, if the Indian Army is in the forefront.

  – RSN Singh (The writer is a former military intelligence officer who later served in the Research and Analysis Wing, or R&AW. The author of two books: Asian Strategic and Military Perspective and Military Factor in Pakistan, he is also Associate Editor, Indian Defence Review.)

BEIJING: The US move to create a naval base in northern Australia close to the South China Sea can actually mean more dollars in the Indian kitty, and put more strategic and business opportunities in New Delhi’s way, sources said. The first piece of evidence has come by way of Australia’s decision to selluranium to India.

The US move will provide a sense of protection to East Asian countries including Japan, who have serious conflicts with China but buy vast amounts of Chinese goods. The new found protection will encourage East Asia to reduce its dependence on China for goods and enhance economic ties with India, sources said.

“Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia will feel more secure. India and Indonesia can get together to control the Malacca Straits, which is the route though which 90% of Chinese goods to East Asia passes,” Subramanian Swamy, Janata Party president and a widely regarded China expert, told TNN.

There are signs that China is jittery about the US move to station 2,500 US marines in the Northern Territory of Australia within five years. Beijing on Thursday warned Australia it might get “caught in the crossfire” if it allows the US to exercise its naval might in the waters around it. Washington’s move has put the US navy within easy sailing reach of Vietnam, which is involved in a serious territorial dispute over oil rich islands in the South China Sea.

The move will also bring some relief to the ONGC, which is one of the foreign companies involved in exploring oil along with Vietnamese oil firms in the South China Sea. China has bitterly criticized India on the move and asked ONGC to withdraw.

When it comes to exporting to East Asia, India cannot replace China, which has a wide range of goods to offer, Uday Bhaskar, director of the National Maritime Foundation, said.

“But there is a strategic review of the bilateral relation with India by the US, EU and Japan, wherein Indian markets are being recognized as an important driver of trade in the region,” Bhaskar added.

India will need to retool its export basket if it seriously wishes to compete with China as a provider of goods in East Asia, he said.

The US move can also mean massive savings in investments being made by the Indian defense agencies on the India China border, Abhijit Iyer Mitra, research officer at the Institute of Conflict Studies in New Delhi, said.

“This is God sent. The more US ramps up its military presence in South China Sea, the more it will divert Beijing’s attention from India,” he said.

“It can actually mean a big saving on investments being made on the China border. But I doubt if our defense establishment would make the best of the opportunity. They are too attached to big budget,” he said.

 – OE News Bureau

Coalgate investigations, FDI in retail, coordination within UPA with allies, internal security and several key policy matters has seen UPA trebling without any leadership. The highest indicator of the multi layer power centre was exposed in the passing and sudden withdrawal of ordinance related to keeping criminals out of active politics.

The cabinet headed by Dr Manmohan unanimously passed ordinance extending certain concessions to tainted politicians. It was forwarded to President of approval though he refused to sign. This is the start of a new story wherein Congress VP Rahul Gandhi steps in and tore apart the credibility of the government by publicly stating that this ordinance is useless, to be thrown in dustbin, The nation has witnessed tremendous turbulence due to multi layer power system in the government that lacks accountability with one person. Surely, the PM is the man responsible to the public at large but the world’s largest democracy has seen a rare multi level amalgamation of power to run a complex country.

UPA’s multiple dysfunctions created the perfect FDI storm, the government’s decision to suspend opening up of India’s retail sector to foreign investors, 12 days after it was announced with much fanfare, marks a new nadir in the fortunes of the second UPA government. Optimists, and there a few, think retail FDI could play out like the nuclear deal, where it was initially put on hold after the Left objected, and later revived.

But the second avatar of the UPA appears to be difficult from the previous one, a number of ministers in the current government said, with key play- ers often working at cross purposes. The ministers, as well as several politicians, both belonging to the Congress and the government’s allies, largely spoke on condition of anonymity. The fiasco has highlighted what was till recently only whispered about infighting in the cabinet and a rapid diminution in the authority of the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh. Barely 24 hours after the cabinet meeting, for instance, senior ministers from the ruling and allied parties were expressing their reservation about the move, some openly. It soon became well known, for instance, that defense minister AK Antony and rural development minister Jairam Ramesh were opposed, though neither have spoken in public.

But the discord, according to the ministers and a number of political leaders, is not restricted to the cabinet. According to a number of people familiar with the matter, equations between Sonia Gandhi, the Congress President, and the man she appointed as Prime Minister more than nine years ago, is no longer what it used to be. “The Congress is like a three-legged animal, with each being pulled in different directions. So, if there is one section that is toeing Mrs Gandhi’s line, there is another that appears to have Rahul Gandhi’s mandate. And a handful of people supporting the PM,” a cabinet minister said.

Sonia Gandhi’s illness has been a complicating factor. “Who is in charge here? Sonia Gandhi is distracted with her illness and she is no longer as hands on as she was during UPA 1. Rahul Gandhiis a landlord in absentia

his interventions are few and far between and he keeps himself away from the government mostly. That leaves the Prime Minister whom his own party members don’t take too seriously. His authority is constantly challenged ironically not as much by the allies but by Congress cabinet ministers. And it doesn’t help when the PMO is perceived to be playing games with various ministers,” another senior UPA minister says.

“This term of the UPA has killed the spirit of doing business in India,” a top industrialist. “It’s not just an activist judiciary, out-of-control law enforcement agencies wherein India’s premium business houses were targeted. Recent CBI FIR against Birla group and roll back reflects a poor state of governance in the country. The issues such as inflation, internal law & order situation etc have dampen the spirits of business world. Who can do business with interest rates at 16%? This government has some outstanding, bright individuals but nobody is willing to do anything,” the industrialist says.

The division in the cabinet has not helped. “The FDI in retail is a classic example of how the PM was let down by his own cabinet. Which of the powerful ministers came out in strong support? Not because in principal they didn’t support it but because they are upset and disillusioned by the PM,” says a minister belonging to a party allied with the Congress.

According to this person, Chidambaram feels let down by the PM as he feels the Prime Minister’s Office has not been particularly helpful at a time when he is under relentless attack from Subramaniam Swamy, the maverick politician who has petitioned the courts seeking resignation of home minister, who was finance minister in 2008 when a set of controversial telecom licences were issued by A Raja, the former telecom minister. A controversial note from the finance ministry, which appeared to partly blame Chidambaram for failing to prevent the scam, has not helped matters.

One cabinet minister also points out that Kapil Sibal, the telecom and HRD minister, who till a few months ago did a fair amount of fire fighting for the government, kept mostly silent during the FDI debate as he feels he went out on a limb opposing the popular anti-corruption campaigner Anna Hazare with little backing from the party.

Government officials say an attempt was made by the Congress high command to bring in order by appointing Pulok Chatterji as the PM’s principal sec- retary. Chatterji comes with the formidable reputation of being a professional, low profile and no- nonsense bureaucrat. He has an onerous task at hand, say people in the know, with the relation- ships between some of the most powerful cabinet ministers at an all-time low.

Landmark legislation and reforms initiated by the UPA have had one characteristic. With the important exception of the nuclear deal legislation such as NREGA which provides 100 days of guaranteed employment – and the Food Security Bill have been personally been driven by Sonia Gandhi. The government’s role has been to implement the party’s wishes.

In case of multi-brand retail it was different, with the Prime Minister driving the initiative. The government had to sell this idea to the party once the core committee took a view. Many blame industry minister Anand Sharma for the fiasco. A Congress party member says Sharma was the wrong choice to hard sell the proposal. “First, he didn’t even bother to sell the idea to his party men, forget about allies. “This government is being run by Rajya Sabha people some who haven’t even been municipal com- missioners,” says a Congress leader sarcastically. The criticism would apply to the Prime Minister, who is a Rajya Shabha member.

Several Congress ministers say it was a classic case of bad presentation. “The policy should have been pitched as a special power that states were going to be given to avail foreign investment in infrastructure and retail if it so desired. As India gradually inches for the General Elections 2014 with massive rallies and election fever has already set in the country, the stakes are higher than ever. It is do or die battle of Narender Modi led BJP minus NDA to secure 200+ Lok Sabha seats in order to attract allies to form the government. It is true that Narender Modi is the most popular leader of the country today but the limitation of BJP is that it will con- test national elections in 2/3 of India wherein it is having absolutely no presence in 1/3 of India hence success ration required to translate 2/3 seats is extremely high, it makes Narender Modi task very difficult. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi must have to demonstrate extreme control over the party to settle himself as undisputed leader. He must deliver goods by words and actions. Indian loves authoritative leadership so Rahul Gandhi has limited options. He will be fighting against history of ten years of anti incumbency of UPA government. There is a generation shift within Congress leadership so the experience leaders may feel ignored by the young brigade; the balancing may require huge skills for Rahul Gandhi. Finally, he must take control of the party and government decisively to disseminate message to the country that he is in complete control of entire governance and he is the BOSS. It will give Congress cadre a clear line of control and it will offer the country a clear option to vote or not to vote to Rahul Gandhi led Congress party for UPA III.

– OE News Bureau

As President Barack Obama’s budget aimed at rebuilding the country’s economy, emerging ‘from the worst recession in generations’, looks at India as ‘one of the most important and promising emerging markets in the world’.

Obama’s proposed $3.7 trillion spending plan for 2011 hopes to ‘win the future by out-innovating, out-educating, and out-building our global competitors and creating the jobs and industries of tomorrow’, according to the White House.

‘India is one of the most important and promising emerging markets in the world, and represents a tremendous opportunity for US firms to expand their output of goods and services,’ the budget proposal presented Monday said.

‘On the margins of the president’s trip to India in November, trade transactions were announced or showcased exceeding $14.9 billion in total value with $9.5 billion in US export content and that would support an estimated 53,670 jobs,’ the White House noted.

These cross border collaborations, both public and private, underpin the expanding US-India strategic partnership, contributing to economic growth and development in both countries, it said. Notable examples include the sale of commercial and military air- craft, gas and steam turbines and precision measurements instrumentation. The budget proposals said the emergence of a global market place that includes the growing economies of China, India and other developing counties creates an opportunity for America to export US goods and services to new customers.

‘With 95 percent of the world’s customers as well as the globe’s fastest growing markets beyond our borders, we must compete aggressively to spur economic growth and job creation,’ the budget said. Obama’s third annual budget says that it can reduce projected deficits by $1.1 trillion over the next decade, enough to stabilise the nation’s fiscal health and buy time to address its longererm problems, the New York Times said citing a senior administration official.

Two-thirds of the reductions that Obama claims are from cuts in spending, including in many domestic programmes that he supports.Among the reductions for just the next fiscal year, 2012, which starts Oct 1, are more than $1 billion from airport grants and nearly $1 billion from grants to states for water treatment plants and similar projects. Public health and forestry programmes would also be cut. With Republicans in charge of the House, Obama’s budget is more a statement of his priorities and philosophy than an actual template for federal spending and tax policy, the Times noted.

 – Arun Kumar  (Arun Kumar can be contacted at arun.kumar@ians.in)