If history is anything to go by, it is premature for either the US to trust the Pakistanis or vice versa. Both nations have been known to ultimately succumb to their basic instincts. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan has been walking the tightrope of the genealogical and evolutionary compulsions that characterise his nation. His jazba (passion) of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) had stormed the elections in 2018 and promised an idyll that is historically, Constitutionally and practically undeliverable – a “Riyasat-e-Madina”, where all citizens are equal in the eyes of the law with guaranteed full fundamental rights.

Acknowledging the enormity of his promise and reset, he instinctively suggested reconstructing the edifice of Pakistan and rechristened it as “Naya Pakistan.” The inheritance of an economy in slide with rising debts, falling currency, inflation and depleted coffers had him scurrying to the Arab capitals, Beijing and even to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This to impress upon them an economically-prudent, austere and reformist agenda that would no longer be profligate or reckless with the sanctioned “aid.”

This entailed the toning down of his anti-IMF tirade that he had invoked during the pre-election campaigning, as indeed, personally chauffeuring the all-important Princelings from the rival camps of Saudi Arabia and Qatar. While money has started trickling in bits, it has extracted a severe price from the common citizenry as they reel under spiralling price rises and shortages.

The onerous task of re-setting to “Naya Pakistan” essentially implies the reneging of various Pakistani positions. The opening act of the tenure was lavish in promising such change, including the famous “If India takes one step, Pakistan will take two.” The optics and soundbites emanating from the prime ministerial house were in conformity with the naya way of things and soon the usual ostentatiousness was frowned upon and the all-powerful razzmatazz was supposedly cut.

The world at large waited with bated breath to figure out if it was yet another exercise in political posturing or if Pakistan had indeed evolved to the portents of “Naya Pakistan.” But the cracks showed up almost immediately as Imran Khan succumbed to the nation’s ingrained bigotry and dropped the economist, Atif Mian, from the economic advisory, apparently on account of his belonging to the minority and the persecuted Ahmediya faith.

From the Indian perspective, Imran Khan continued making naïve statements against terrorism while the Pakistani incorrigibility continued in Afghanistan. Then the Pulwama episode happened. The trust deficit between Pakistan and all its irate neighbours (India, Afghanistan and Iran) widened. A certain disillusionment against the built-up hype of “Naya Pakistan” started afresh.

The US was already breathing down Pakistan’s neck for its duplicity and US President Donald Trump famously tweeted that Pakistan does not “do a damn thing” in return for the billions of dollars in American “aid.” Imran Khan retaliated and tweeted back: “No Pakistani was involved in 9/11 but it decided to participate in the US’ war on terror” and added, “Pakistan suffered 75,000 casualties in this war and over $123 billion was lost to the economy.” US aid “was a minuscule $20 billion.” The free-for-all between Pakistan and the US ensured that Islamabad swung even more sharply towards the willing arms of Beijing and almost started behaving like a beholden and vassal state of China.

Providentially, for Imran Khan and Pakistan, the whimsical Trump, who had ranted against the Pakistani establishment, had a re-think on his Afghanistan strategy and realised that he would need the services of its bête noire ie, Pakistan, in extricating itself out of the mess in Afghanistan.

In a move reminiscent of dumping Afghanistan in the lurch after ensuring the Soviet-withdrawal from Kabul, the US is yet again working towards a similar vacuum; with Pakistan rubbing its hands in glee. Suddenly, Islamabad is back in favour as all is seemingly forgotten and forgiven and Imran Khan is back to reverse-swinging his “Naya Pakistan” with revised gusto — this time in Washington, DC.

Both Pakistan and the US are masters of selective amnesia and their dalliances of the past, which included flying and feting of the Afghan mujahideen to the White House and supporting these warlords with weapons, have become a lost memory. Both Imran Khan and Trump now shake hands and the former thanks to the Presidents of the United States of America (POTUSA) with “his understanding of Pakistan’s point of view!”

The incredulity continues with Imran Khan promising, “I want to assure President Trump, Pakistan will do everything within its power to facilitate the Afghan peace process” — a rote statement that has consistently and unfailingly been dishonoured by Pakistan.

The hapless Afghan regime of Ashraf Ghani looks on with shocked bewilderment and New Delhi is left having to deal with Trump’s creative memory of Prime Minister Modi apparently asking him to mediate in Kashmir!

The US President’s statements were rightfully, strongly and unequivocally slammed by New Delhi as outrightly incorrect and the same got acknowledged by other functionaries at the Capitol Hill. However, Imran Khan persisted with his façade of “surprise” at the Indian response to “Trump’s offer of mediation” as he feigned ignorance at India’s unwavering and consistent stand on a bilateral framework on Kashmir.

Today, Imran Khan is on a charm offensive both domestically (flying commercial) and internationally, staying at his Ambassador’s residence to avoid “unnecessary expenditure.” Trump has added one more to his embarrassingly long list of documented inexactitudes, which now “exceed 10,000.”

Both the US and Pakistan are again in a convenient and tactical huddle that suits their individual and topical urgencies, without bothering about the past, present or future with such tenuous underpinnings. Beyond the reality of US-Pakistan sparring openly, just a few months back, this region has not forgotten the murky history of American hand in the bloodshed of the 1980s during the height of the Cold War or indeed in India with the US’ seventh fleet sailing menacingly towards the Bay of Bengal in 1971. It would be premature for either the US to trust the Pakistanis or vice versa as history suggests that both nations ultimately succumb to their basic instincts and while India, Afghanistan and Iran will lick their wounds for now — the “deep state” within Pakistan will ultimately rear its head and both Trump and Khan will end up looking like their predecessors.

(The writer, a military veteran, is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry)

Writer: Bhopinder Singh

Courtesy: The Pioneer

Even 50 years after the nationalisation of the 14 largest commercial banks on July 19, 1969, by the then Indira Gandhi Government, the move continues to have wide implications across the economy. It was a very progressive decision. These 14 banks accounted for 85 per cent of the bank deposits in the country. The move was done to free up the banks from the hands of a few industrial houses, who tried to use the depositors’ money under their control to increase credit flow and also address the gross neglect of rural and agricultural sectors, in terms of funding.

Circumstances leading to nationalisation

Recognising the need to improve the flow of credit in rural areas as also the agricultural sector, the then Government took the move to nationalise 14 large banks by passing the Banking Companies (Acquisition and Transfer of Undertaking) Bill in 1969. India’s agricultural growth had just started recovering after the successive drought years of 1966 and 1967 with help from green revolution technologies, which resulted in more intensive farming than traditional methods. Industrial recovery, too, had just begun after the 1965 Indo-Pakistan war and by 1968, the country recorded an industrial growth of 6.2 per cent. All of these created huge demand for credit across sectors, especially from farmers and small-scale industrialists. Petty businessmen, farmers and consumers suffered a cash crunch all those years as business houses maintained their dominant position and the banks focussed on giving credit to them with an aim to earn profits. This total neglect of agriculture and the rural sector by private banks prompted the Government to nationalise the banks and take direct control of credit delivery. The move also made banking in unbanked areas a reality while also giving a powerful tool to a vast majority of weaker sections, including the rural and agricultural farmers and labourers. This was the most prudent decision taken by the Indira Gandhi Government at that time.

Shift from class to mass banking

Immediately after the nationalisation of banks, a plethora of measures was taken by successive Governments to enhance the flow of credit so as to make it accessible to diverse sections of society. The focus of banks shifted from ‘class banking’ to ‘mass banking’. The commitment to spread the reach of banks began with the introduction of the Lead Bank Scheme (LIS) in 1969, the constitution of the State Level Bankers’ Committee (SLBC), district credit plans, priority sector lending (PSL) norms in 1974, branch expansion policy and the formation of Regional Rural Banks in 1975.

Spread of banking network

With nationalisation, unreachable and unbanked areas were easier to reach. The number of bank branches increased from 8,187 in 1969 to 59,752 in 1990, to 1,41,756 as of March, 2019. The share of rural and semi-urban branches increased from 58.4 percent to 77.2 per cent, to 62.89 per cent during the same period. The total network of rural and semi-urban branches increased from 4,781 in 1969 to 46,128 by 1990 and further increased to 89,144 in March 2019. In addition, 1.26 lakh bank mitras (business correspondents) provide branchless banking in villages. Now, one ATM is available for every three villages and for every 375 people, one Point of Sale is available in India.  Effectively, 80 percent of adults aged 18 and above have a bank account as of today. Of the 36 crore new savings bank deposit accounts opened under the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana till May 2019, Public Sector Banks (PSBs) accounted for 96.6 per cent, reflecting their success in achieving socially responsible banking.

Banks as an extended arm of the Government

The nationalised banks, now popularly known as PSBs, played a major role in the implementation of a plethora of credit-linked interest subsidy schemes. Programmes such as the Integrated Rural Development Programme (IRDP), Swarnajayanti Gram Swarozgar Yojana (SGSY), Indira Awas Yojana (IAY), Self Help Group-Bank Linkage Programme (SBLP), MUDRA loans and the most recent one, Jan Dhan Aadhaar Mobile initiative, all depend on the banks to distribute subsidies so as to achieve the target of integrated rural development, higher interest subvention, facilitate debt-waiver schemes and, thus, fulfill the mandatory lending norms for agriculture and small-scale industries. Further, a wide network of PSBs has helped in the implementation of various Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) schemes like subsidy on LPG gas, MGNREGA wages, assistance under PM-KISAN, Rythu Bandhu scheme and various other pension schemes ensuring transparency and zero leakages.

Flipside of nationalisation

Although nationalisation of banks worked well until the 1980s, the Government overstayed its welcome and delayed the process of privatisation, which was badly needed under changed circumstances. The administered interest rates and the burden of direct lending to priority sector constrained the autonomy of PSBs to operate on commercial lines. The mandatory expansion of branches in unbanked centres with low business potential impacted their working. Regulatory entry barriers for private sector to make a foray into the banking sector acted as a hindrance for the development of a healthy competition between the two. Too much involvement of the Government in the banks’ operations and failure to invest in new technology perpetuated the inefficiency of the banking sector for a prolonged period.

Entry of private sector banks

Since 1993, the entry of new private sector banks brought new technology and institutional innovations. Their entry infused the much-needed competition in the banking sector. Post this, the PSBs had to compete with the private banks in spite of their social responsibility of meeting various Government scheme targets. On top of it, PSBs had to also meet the capital adequacy standards in line with the Basel framework from time to time. Recent data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) show that private sector banks are taking away market share from PSBs and will extend that pie from the current 30 per cent to 40 per cent in the near future. 

High NPAs and losses

As per data, aggregate gross advances of PSBs increased from over Rs 18.19 lakh crore as on March 31, 2008 to more than Rs 52.15 lakh crore as on March 31, 2014. This is due to the cumulative effect of the pressure to achieve social banking targets to cater to the low profitable sectors in un-bankable areas, frequent loan waivers, slower adoption of technology and inept monitoring and control systems.

Because of huge NPAs and losses, some PSBs were put under the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) and were not able to cater to the growing credit demand. To strengthen the PSBs, the Government PSBs were recapitalised to the extent of Rs 3.12 lakh crore, with an infusion of Rs 2.46 lakh crore by the Government and mobilisation of over Rs 0.66 lakh crore by PSBs themselves. As per RBI data on global operations (provisional data for the financial year ending March 2019), gross NPAs of PSBs have declined by Rs 89,189 crore from the peak of Rs 8,95,601 crore in March 2018 to Rs 8,06,412 crore in March 2019 (provisional data).

It is questionable as to how long the Government can infuse capital into the PSBs through recapitalisation by spending huge sums of taxpayers money.

Way forward

The current situation demands a totally different approach compared to the one taken in 1969. There is a need for “denationalisation” and “privatisation” barring three to four large strategic banks. This will hasten the spread of bank networks and establish a healthy competition among them as well as provide a wide choice to the consumers. 

Banks should be freed from all Government controls in exercising commercial activities, including stake sale, privatisation and mergers, to maximise their profitability and competitiveness. However, the need is also for enforcement of stringent regulations, improved governance and internal monitoring and control system to reduce NPAs so as to enhance trust in the banking system. All large ticket NPAs need to be declared as willful defaulters and subjected to justice to maintain good health of the banking sector. Instead of brick and mortar banking branches, the focus should shift to simplified virtual banking systems with proper cyber security measures. This alone can take the outreach to remote people and areas.

(The writer is Principal Scientist, Agricultural Economics, ICAR)

Writer: A Amarender Reddy

Courtesy: The Pioneer

The National Green Tribunal’s (NGT’s) clearance of the ambitious Yamuna flood plain natural water storage project has come as a gulp of survival. Coming at a time when the NITI Aayog is predicting Day Zero for 21 Indian cities, the clearance will go a long way in resolving Delhi’s water woes and perhaps lay the urban template for other riverine cities to build reserves for the future. The Arvind Kejriwal-led government seeks to promote rainwater harvesting by digging small ponds along the Yamuna flood plains, which in turn will become natural receptacles of accumulated rainfall and the overflowing river. This infusion of water, which would otherwise trickle out as runoff or waste, will now recharge the river bed and groundwater tables. 

Sixty per cent of the water supplied by the Delhi Jal Board comes from the Yamuna, around 34 per cent from the Ganga and the rest from groundwater. So this project is expected to directly impact volumes. Significantly, this green nod exemplifies a remarkable bipartisan approach to a common concern as Union Jal Shakti minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat speeded up processes. The conservation project will run along 22 km of the Yamuna flood plains, beginning at Palla, where the river enters Delhi, to the other end in Wazirabad. Of course, there is still another hurdle, of acquiring land from farmers, with the Delhi government planning to rent it at a rate of Rs 77,000 per acre. Question is whether the farmers, who have been growing seasonal crops here and living on it for years, will give up their rights for an annual rent? That needs practical workarounds. But at least a beginning has been made. A river’s flood plain must be excluded from human habitation and just allowed to be as it absorbs the most water that recharges aquifers. But as Delhi went through an infrastructural overhaul over the decades, the sustainability of the development process was compromised in the name of erecting modern monuments to the city’s pride, namely the Akshardham temple and Commonwealth Games Village that completely dried out the groundwater and blocked percolation. The bells have tolled way back then, its gong is being heard now.

A fact profile of Delhi, despite being situated on the banks of the Yamuna, reveals a glaring crisis. About 18 percent of its population does not have piped water. Yet, it has one of the highest percentages of households with piped water in India. The only way we can make good the deficit is by replicating rainwater harvesting models across the city, beginning with what history has gifted us, a series of baolis or wells that need recharging, besides lakes, pavilions and moats. The city has lost at least 200 natural water bodies due to encroachment and reclamation, illegal and even legal ones with the connivance of a multiplicity of local authorities and land developers. This is also the reason that a horribly silted up city today gets deluged by the slightest shower. Existing water bodies lie in utter neglect, filled with sewage, garbage and effluents, and are unfit for use. While the groundwater levels have kept falling with the city’s growth, the increasing number of bore-wells and tube-wells has been vacuumising the deeper aquifers as well, causing all kinds of slurry and trickling toxic sludge to be sucked in. India is the world’s largest user of groundwater, drawing one-fourth of the global reserves every year, and it is time the government clamps down on overdrawal with some kind of rationing permits. Also, though rainwater harvesting is compulsory on paper, there are no compliance checks or implementation. This has now got to be enforced on a war footing at the community level. The biggest problem is with builders who tout rainwater pits as a virtue to get sanctions for their housing societies but never install systems. Complementary water-saving measures need to be looked at too, like planting native tree species to strengthen the city’s catchment area, recycling water and ensuring compliance of zoning residential and commercial use norms. One also needs to create a water map to assess requirements across localities and rationing supplies accordingly.

Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer

Boris Johnson has been appointed British PM by the Conservative Party. Can he deliver on promises?

It appears that to be a successful populist leader in the English-speaking world, you need to conjure up a cool acronym. Donald Trump’s mantra in the 2016 elections was to ‘Make America Great Again’ or MAGA. And now that Trump’s ‘friend’ Boris Johnson is in 10, Downing Street, the home of the British Prime Minister, he has come up with the slogan ‘DUDE’ to outline his objectives. Those are to ‘Deliver Brexit’; ‘Unite Britain’; ‘Defeat (Jeremy) Corbyn’ the leader of the opposition Labour Party and lastly to ‘Energise the nation’, the final one coming because, as Johnson himself noted in his acceptance speech, ‘DUD’ doesn’t make for a great tagline. One could argue nor does ‘DUDE’ which sounds more like something a college student would say rather than a 55-year old shaggy-haired populist whose insurrection doomed the government of his predecessor Theresa May. Those who know Johnson, and thanks to his past as a journalist in major British newspapers, have said that being Prime Minister was his ultimate ambition. But make no mistake, he might fashion himself as a populist but is a product of Britain’s upper classes, much like Donald Trump is a product of the New York elite. And Johnson has the extremely difficult task of uniting the nation and delivering Brexit at the same time. He has taken the hard line stance that a ‘Hard’ Brexit, that is the British exiting the European Union (EU) without any sort of a deal, come what may by October 31. There are several problems with this stance expected to cripple trade and cause major issues on Ireland, which remains divided between the British North and the Republic of Ireland. His tactic of negotiating with a gun to his head with the EU looks suspiciously like Pakistan’s negotiating tactics.

But the question is will ‘BoJo’ change now that he has the top job? Previously he held the high-profile role of Mayor of London where he managed to be re-elected as a Conservative in a Left-leaning city. A floppy-haired “likeable rogue”, whose private life still makes headlines, he was pro-migrant, pro-LGBT rights and even pro-Europe. Some are hoping that BoJo will now take a turn and manage to deliver good governance, especially since he is by far and away Britain’s most popular politician. But with just about a 100 days to go before Brexit, no matter which sort, he has an unenviable task in front of him. And clever acronyms which might make you an entertaining writer does not make one a statesman. 

Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer

Sensitive Bills must be discussed and deliberated upon rather than being hurried through for political point-scoring

Who wouldn’t want a Parliament session to be productive? So the news that a record number of Bills are being introduced and pushed through the House, breaking a 15-year record of inefficiency, should be heartening. Except that it is not, despite all the propaganda about a “New India” narrative. There is nothing wrong with writing new chapters frankly, provided they respect parliamentary convention, public accountability, procedural propriety and have consensual transparency as is tradition. But to overturn and deny everything past as wrongdoing with brute force is not only immature and self-promoting but challenging the wisdom of our founding fathers and the spirit of the Constitution, which ensured that parliamentary democracy would always be participative with in-built checks and balances. Therefore, there is some credence to the theory that sensitive Bills, that in the end impact the lives of all citizens and who themselves need to avail the law in the first place, should be duly deliberated, discussed and shared in the public domain. Clearly, the Modi 2.0 government is under pressure as in its earlier version, it had promulgated several Ordinances in February and March with an eye on swinging the Lok Sabha verdict with a stock of political capital. It, now, is under extreme pressure to convert 10 Ordinances, including the politically sensitive Triple Talaq, into Acts of Parliament within 45 days of beginning a new House session or risking their lapse. That means diluting the agenda it had pursued for so long. Of course, the government is claiming that some of the older Bills had gone through a consultative and debating process in the 16th Lok Sabha and do not merit a carry-over debate in the new House to save time. But the fact of the matter is that this is a new House with new members and perspectives and no matter how detailed previous discussions were, they need to be re-introduced. Already Opposition MPs are claiming that the proposed Bills are being circulated in such a narrow window that it allows little time for introspection, questioning and amendments and are as good as being passed without consent.

The Right to Information Act has been predictably the first casualty, the government whittling down its efficacy and the institutions formed by it to tame some of the criticism of accountability that it encourages. The new RTI strips the Information Commissioners from the immunity they had as equivalent to Supreme Court judges and Chief Election Commissioners so far, subjecting their service records, tenure and salaries to the discretion of the government or the Executive. Effectively, it means defanging them for the government can remove them when it considers them unsuitable to its design. A fixed tenure and autonomy regardless of the government of the day would enable them to pursue fair probes. Otherwise, they would be afraid to be independent. Even our first Chief Information Commissioner, Wajahat Habibullah, and other bureaucrats had written to the Prime Minister Narendra Modi against the amendments. Modi, who has made running a corruption-free government his professed mantra since 2015, clearly stands to lose credibility and seem arrogant by pushing something antithetical to that spirit. The Information Commissions are anyway dependent on retired bureaucrats and now likely loyalists. With new amendments, they will be more subservient. But the Government rustled up numbers in the Upper House after having worked on fence-sitters like Biju Janata Dal and YSR Congress and drove the RTI Bill on weight rather than merit. Similarly, the Triple Talaq Bill is still caught in a tussle over gender rights and a criminality clause that could victimise a certain community more than others. The Congress may force a division of votes and queer the pitch somewhat in the Rajya Sabha. But the real question is different. With so many Bills dying over the decades with no headway made, perhaps a majoritarian regime is forcing us to think about democratic redressal of flaws. Experts have suggested that old Bills hanging fire in the Rajya Sabha should be considered dead with a new Lok Sabha, the women’s reservation Bill being a case in point. One wonders how many Rajya Sabha MPs are around to hold the thread from the time it was introduced. Also, the referral to Standing Committees that the Opposition is harping on, should be serious business. Members should function full potential and not scramble to even make a quorum.

Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer

Investment in family planning counselling corners is essential not just to fulfill India’s pledge at the International Conference on Population and Development to give women reproductive choices but also because women should be allowed to plan their future

In Bihar, a State where many girls are married early — some as soon as they step into their first year of puberty — having children quickly is not surprising or unexpected. The girls are caught in an unfortunate bind where social and cultural circumstances compel them to marry early and prove their fertility immediately. More often than not, they have a few children in quick succession.

Reena Devi of Pariauna village, Nalanda district in Bihar, had her first child within a year of her marriage. Unfortunately, her son died of jaundice soon after. She had her second child 10 months later. Ignorant about the consequences of quick pregnancies on her health, Reena was also unaware that she could control her fertility by planning her family.

According to the 2011 census, girls marry young in Nalanda district, many of them below the legal age of marriage. Lack of information, coupled with early marriage and pregnancy, have contributed to a high Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 3.9 for the district. TFR indicates the average number of children expected to be born per woman during her entire reproductive span (15-49 years). Much of this stems from the fact that Bihar has the highest percentage of illiterate women at 26.8 per cent and also continues to top the country as far as illiteracy levels are concerned with a TFR of 3.2.

In fact, fertility for women like Reena begins too young, with too many and is also too frequent. However, a new initiative piloted some years ago was expected to change this situation. The State health department launched family planning corners to provide postpartum contraceptive counselling. This was after realising that even if couples wanted to space their children, public health centers were unable to provide appropriate information or choices to plan their family.

It was believed that in a society where women are reluctant to talk about reproductive health, explaining the right contraceptive choice for the young rural mother, especially after the birth of the first child, would make a big difference in slowing fertility. 

Counselling is a crucial component in decision-making. If couples are counselled and allowed to make informed choices based on the advantages and disadvantages of contraceptives available, they will want family planning services, say experts.

Under this pilot project, the State health society set up two such family planning corners at the Nalanda Sadar hospital at Bihar Sharif and two primary health centers (PHCs) at the block level in Harnaut and Noorsarai in partnership with an NGO working on family planning. These corners were within these Government facilities and were used by NGO counsellors to disseminate family planning information and services, including postpartum contraceptives.

It took time but the family planning corners began engaging couples. At the Noorsarai PHC, after the counsellor explained the importance of family planning to a new mother, it was the mother-in-law accompanying her, who took the responsibility of ensuring that the matter was discussed at home. This was a big opportunity for family planning corners. They were able to ensure that the daughter-in-law returned with her husband to learn how to space the family.

Even at the Sadar hospital in Bihar Sharif, interest in family planning grew. With the number of institutional deliveries recording an increase here, the counselling desk became crucial, especially for postpartum contraceptives. Since many women, who came to the Sadar hospital for deliveries, had little or no information about contraceptives, the active family planning counsellor visits the maternity ward to interact with the mothers. Here, she identifies women, who need family planning services, and then counsels them on postpartum contraceptives as well as on the basket of services available. Ever since these centres were set up, the percentage of people accepting one of the family planning services offered here rose from five per cent in three months, indicating the increasing demand for services and the difference counselling could make.

Clearly, there is a clear relationship between TFR and Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR). Data has shown that where there is very low contraceptive prevalence. Fertility is very high as in States like Bihar. In States like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, fertility is lower because contraceptive prevalence is much higher. There are thousands of couples, who want to space their families, but do not have access to means of family planning. More than one-fifth of the women in India reported that their last birth as unwanted.

In States like Bihar, unmet need is about 21.2 per cent. But only 11 per cent of the health workers have talked to women, who do not use any form of family planning. Since unmet contraceptive needs lead to unwanted fertility, an increased informed use of family planning methods may lower total fertility significantly. So, an investment in family planning counselling corners is essential. This is not just because scaling up the pilot project can help India fulfill its pledge taken 25 years ago at the International Conference on Population and Development to give women reproductive choice, but because family planning is a woman’s right.

(The writer is a senior journalist)

Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer

As climate change becomes more palpable, it’s time for us to take appropriate actions post the commitments made in the Paris deal. We need to drop the status quo-ist mindset

The effects of climate change are no longer knocking at our doors but have entered our homes, unsettling normal life and particularly destroying planet earth’s very fibre and fabric of life — natural resources. With heat wave conditions ravaging north and western parts of the country, maximum temperatures went as high as 48°C in the national capital. Churu in Rajasthan saw temperatures soaring to 50°C in June. Breaking its previous record of 50.2°C recorded in May 2016, this year the desert city recorded temperatures as high as 50.8°C.

In fact, it has become an annual affair for several parts of the country to experience the summer crisis of rising temperatures, which brings along with it drought and severe water scarcity problems. This year, India experienced its worst monsoon since 2014 with only 17 per cent of the districts receiving excess rain while 51 per cent was deficient in showers, as on July 17. The southwest monsoon, which has had an erratic run this year, is now making up for the losses. It is now covering the length and breath of the country — running 10-15 days behind schedule. Overall, India had a deficit of 19 per cent rainfall as on July 23 with north-west, central and peninsular India, each recording 21 per cent deficiency.

The vagaries of climate change are there for all to see throughout the year. While in Chennai, locals were praying for some rain, on the other hand, Mumbaikars were reeling under a deluge. Other weather-related events such as floods and cyclones, too, have become a yearly phenomenon. The frequency and severity of these calamities is increasing.

A late start to the monsoon and deficient rainfall this year have both impacted the farm sector. This has led to delayed sowing of crops such as rice, soybean and corn. As of June 14, farmers had planted kharif crops across 8.22 million hectares, down nine per cent from the year-ago figure, according to data from the Agriculture Ministry. The problem is further complicated by the fact that most such crops have limited sowing period. Besides having immediate impact and long-term effect on the farm economy, extreme events like droughts, floods and landslides result in the loss of lives and cause great financial hardship to individuals and communities.

India is among those countries that are most vulnerable to climate change. Many factors, both natural and human, have made the fight against climate change more real, be it the melting of the Himalayan glaciers, the depletion of the ozone layer and erratic monsoon.

Many countries around the world, especially in Europe, have adopted a “wartime footing” strategy to address the existential threat of climate change. The French National Assembly recently declared a “climate emergency.” The Britain Parliament was the first in the world to do so. Others like Australia and Ireland followed suit.

The very purpose of “climate emergency” is to take radical steps to obtain “zero carbon emission” by 2050 by way of taking short and long-term steps towards mobilisation of resources so as to prevent deterioration of the environment. So far, over 740 local Governments in 16 countries have declared a “climate emergency.”

Last year, the UN had warned that we have just 12 years left to limit the climate change catastrophe. In view of the lurking danger, let us examine the seriousness of the climate threat so that it does not undermine our efforts towards the ultimate goal of ending poverty. As far as India’s commitment to the Paris deal is concerned, it is well on the trajectory to achieve two of its three commitments. India had promised to reduce its emissions intensity — greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP — by 33 to 35 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. It had also promised to ensure that at least 40 per cent of its energy in 2030 would be generated from non-fossil fuel sources, like solar, wind or bio-fuels.  In addition, it had said it would rapidly increase its forest cover so that an additional carbon sink equivalent to 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide is created by the year 2030.

However, India had asserted that its achievements will depend on the international financial and technology transfer as well as capacity-building support from the developed nations. During the Katowice Climate Change conference, India asserted that it is well on course in achieving its Paris commitments.

All said and done, at the international level, our planners have to brush up for just glib-talking to taking action on war footing. Rising temperatures, erratic monsoon as also natural calamities such as storms and cyclones cannot be handled by routine measures. India’s small industrial town of Aurangabad made headlines in 2010 when it ordered 150 Mercedes Benz cars at one go worth Rs 65 crore. This year, too, it was in the news for an unprecedented demand of water tanks during May and June. Prosperity and material wealth are of no use if people do not get access to basic drinking water services. In Uttarakhand, people from hilly areas are migrating towards plain districts due the lack of sub-surface drinking water.

The country, therefore, needs to take radical steps to identify locations, which can be declared as areas of “climate emergency.” Take the case of the Delhi-NCR region, which along with the many climate change-related problems battle other issues like pollution and straw burning, is a fit case to be declared as a “climate emergency” zone. Air quality remains poor, the Yamuna river stretch remains highly polluted and now the capital city is also witnessing a rise in average ozone levels.

The Modi 2.0 Government recently formed the “Jal Shakti” Ministry  and launched a countrywide water conservation scheme focussing on 256 districts with the lowest availability of groundwater. To tackle climate change, a climate action strategy is needed. First, a list of “climate emergency” hotspots must be prepared for focussed implementation of programmes on climate change.

Second, on the policy front, one important decision that has been causing severe pressure on resources is population explosion. Unless focussed attempts are made to control the demographic dividend, goals such as poverty eradication, developmental as well as climate mitigation will remain a pipedream. Population control, therefore, is at the core of climate change mitigation programmes. It’s high time to formulate a legislation to control population after broad political consensus.

Third, water management should focus on river basin treatment, drought and flash floods. All water management programmes must help regulate and tap precipitation and run off and channel it to recharge the aquifer, village ponds and lakes. Each drop of water must be conserved. A research conducted by the Central Water Commission and the Indian Space Research Organisation, which was kept under wraps since 2017 but released recently argued that India may be stressed for water, but it does not suffer from water scarcity.

Fourth, keep forest fires under control. On this front, State Governments pay mere lip service. Forest fires are low killers of water, soil and forests and must be declared as a national emergency.

In a nutshell, we need to face the daunting task of keeping climate change under control with innovative living. And for this, the status quo-ist mindset must go. Is the environment ministry prepared to tackle climate change emergency? Does it have sufficient funds, qualified man power and tools to tackle it?

(The writer is a former civil servant)

Writer: VK Bahuguna

Courtesy: Pioneer

While there has been no consensus on who would succeed outgoing president Rahul Gandhi, speculation is rife that Priyanka Gandhi could be the chosen one. Even if for a moment we believe she does take charge, she will be wearing a crown of thorns

Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra took the lead last week by visiting Uttar Pradesh’s Sonbhadra district, where allegedly 10 tribals were gunned down by the village headman over a land dispute. While other Opposition parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) were caught napping, Priyanka went ahead with her gamble even as the police stopped her. She responded by saying that she was visiting the village only to commiserate with the affected families. Thereafter, she spent a night at the Mirzapur State guesthouse, refusing to furnish a bail bond.

Senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh compared her visit to Indira Gandhi’s Belchi visit and tweeted, “Aap ka ye kadam Indiraji ki Belchi yatra ki yaad dilatha hai.  Priyankaji aap sankarsh kare ham sab aap ke saath hai.” He was referring to Indira Gandhi’s big political moment after her defeat in 1977 when she visited Belchi village in Bihar where there was a Dalit massacre. She even rode an elephant to reach the village. Priyanka made similar efforts by refusing to return without meeting the affected families and remained in the front-page news for at least two days.

Priyanka’s visit has created some cheer in the local Congress as her campaign earlier had lost sheen when she could not even get her brother Rahul Gandhi elected from the family pocket borough Amethi. The ‘Brahmastra’, as the party touted her, had misfired. She was lying low until now. But Priyanka has now snatched the first political opportunity with her own Belchi moment. Blaming Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, she held that the shooting was the latest sign of deteriorating law and order in the State.

Priyanka’s visit was part of her Uttar Pradesh strategy. Her goal is the 2022 Assembly polls. Now that she has been made the general secretary in charge of the entire State, she is addressing the important issue of how to build up the party. The Congress’ impact on past elections for decades — barring 2009 — has been largely marginal. Her tweets and her statements targetted against Chief Minister Adityanath are meant to achieve this goal.

At another level, after futile efforts to make Rahul Gandhi withdraw his resignation, the Congress is readying itself for a post-Gandhi phase. With no takers outside the family, will the party choose Priyanka to take the place of her brother? For this, she needs the support of the old guard but seniors are upset at the way Priyanka reacted to the 2019 electoral defeat in the Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting on May 25, where she blamed those in that room for the defeat. According to insiders, Priyanka said, Congress “ke hathyare” are sitting in this room.

This is why there has been a muted response from the old guard. Also, Congress leaders have not pushed her name openly as Rahul Gandhi had said that the party should find someone outside the Nehru-Gandhi family for the position. But now, a lobby for Priyanka led by Congress leaders Sriprakash Jaiswal and Bhakta Charan Das has demanded that she be made the next party president.

While the party is dilly-dallying about Rahul’s successor, insiders say that the problem appears to be that there’s no consensus within the Gandhi family itself. Priyanka is not averse to taking over the party though Sonia Gandhi would like to persuade her son to withdraw his resignation. Moreover, it is not clear what the family will decide.

If chosen as party president, will Priyanka be able to deliver at a time when there is large-scale erosion? This is a difficult time as the party is totally demoralised after the humiliating defeat in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. There is no organisation or second-rung leaders. There is no strategy. She has to spell out what the Congress stands for today. She has to find a new team and also placate the old guard, who are weary of her.

Elections to States like Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana are due in a few months and the party is still ridden with factionalism, groupism and indiscipline.  There are too many issues to be resolved. Moreover, though she is a crowd puller and charismatic, what experience does she have to steer the party during difficult times like these? She has not been tested on her organisational skills nor has she worked at the grassroot level. She became a full-time politician only in the last six months. So she will only be wearing a crown of thorns.

Clamour for Priyanka has gathered steam in recent days after Jaiswal and Das had started it. She may well go on to prove herself at some point in the future, but so far, she has shown none of Indira Gandhi’s political skills. The Uttar Pradesh results have proved that there is no Priyanka magic but her supporters dismiss this by pointing out that she came into the scene too late. Ultimately the party cannot live without the family and the family cannot give up its hold over the party. So they are stuck with each other.

(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)

Writer: Kalyani Shankar

Courtesy: The Pioneer

The EVM, black money charges may look facile but TMC is cleverly pitching for another polarised debate

One doesn’t know if election strategist Prashant Kishore’s expertise played a role or not but given Trinanool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee’s first roadshow after the Lok Sabha debacle, doesn’t look like there is a dramatic difference in her fightback. Mamata has always relied on her own brand of rhetoric, confrontationist style and crowd-pleasing punchlines to show she is in command of her game. To her, there was no question of rising again because she still had not fallen. Hence she chose her personal history to relaunch her fighting spirit, one that many observers had seen flagging post her narrow win in the Lok Sabha. Martyrs Day is observed annually by TMC on July 21 to commemorate the killings of 13 people in police firing in 1993, when Mamata, then a Youth Congress leader, had launched a march to the secretariat, demanding that voters’ card be made the only document to allow people to exercise their franchise. She cleverly recalled the legitimacy of a well-worn voting process to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), calling the Lok Sabha results a mystery rather than a history, suggesting manipulation through electronic voting machines (EVMs) and arguing for a paper ballot in local level polls.The EVM trope is old and frankly, the overwhelming Lok Sabha verdict has all but junked that argument. No amount of tampering could have done the damage in Bengal where the TMC’s organisational network is very strong still and could have forced counter-measures. Is this call, therefore, calculated to ensure a return of a process that she can manage better? Or just to hold her party cadres together in the face of a big bad wolf in her unique strategy of fighting the politics of oppression? In this effort, she strategically left out any mention of the communal card and instead focussed on the BJP’s bid to unlawfully usurp the administrative machinery. Hence the mention of EVMs and the charge that the Railways ran fewer trains to prevent her supporters from reaching the venue of the rally.

And then she took the bull by the horns on the “cut money” issue, the extortion drives by unruly TMC cadres, with a counter-accusatory question for the BJP — “Where is the big black money you promised to return?” If she had instructed her cadres to “return” the cut money and is sanitising her hoodlums, it was still paltry compared to the bigger party’s black money retrieval trail. So though there was no major announcement of programmes that one had expected, Mamata just laid a count-counterpoint pitch focussing on the BJP as an enemy of Bengal. There is no doubt that this approach has worked magic in the past and going by the numbers on a Sunday, Didi can still work the ground. But for 2021, she has to look much beyond sloganeering and make some sobering moves.  For starters, she has to live down the minority appeasement card with a more balanced cooption of the majority, something that has been driven purely for political gain. Then she has to arrest the drift in the bureaucracy and police, who are wary after the BJP’s unparalleled verdict in the State and do not want to be seen as blatantly toeing her line. Then there is the larger slide brought about by her purist Bengal line, antagonising non-Bengalis as outsiders and settlers. But knowing her shrewdness, she doesn’t shoot the arrow recklessly. She may just want to foist another divisive agenda ahead of the 2021 polls and gain from polarisation around Bengal’s identity and pride. And finally, with national ambitions out of the way, Didi may just look inward for her own good.

Writer & Courtesy: Pioneer

As the campaign for the US presidential elections, slated for November 2020, heats up, can the man be defeated?

Much newsprint has been wasted by commentators doubting US President Donald Trump’s intelligence or his methods, particularly his single-minded determination to keep Twitter relevant in foreign ministry offices and corporate headquarters across the world, let alone American homes. Yet one must admit he is a smart man. You do not win the US presidency against an establishment candidate after securing your party’s candidacy in a crowded field. Trump’s upending of the global trade paradigm has been drastic but he does make some sense when it comes to domestic priorities. But his latest statement against a few American Congresswomen from the Democratic Party, telling them in no uncertain terms that if they do not “love America” they should go back to where they “came from,” is distressing. It just so happens that Ilhan Omar, one of the Congresswomen attacked by Trump, is of Somalian descent and this is nothing more than Trump catering to the nativist part of the American electorate. Instead of reaching out to minorities, who are unlikely to vote for him, he is trying to energise his base. So the “Lock her up”, Trump’s slogan against Hillary Clinton, has been intensified now with his supporters chanting, “Send her home” about Omar.

Trump has been pilloried by political rivals. The Democratic Party, fractured by a contentious primary election to select the man or woman who will contest against him, has backed Omar and her fellow Congresswomen. Even foreign politicians have attacked him, particularly from Europe. Yet, Trump’s attack resonates as nativist forces in the US look on immigrants as interlopers in their nation, ignoring that immigrants have actually been change agents. But with few of Trump’s Republican allies attacking him, he will carry on this path and his cries against immigrants will get stronger. It remains to be seen if the Democratic Party can put up a credible candidate who can stand against Trump. The risk they run, like several other liberal parties across the world, is that they might put someone from the extreme-left ideological wing of the party who will stand little chance against Trump’s intelligence. Some say Trump was a failure in everything that he did, his business ventures have never been as successful as he claims. But looking at him now, it is impossible to see how he is anything but a winner.

Writer & Courtesy: Pioneer

Even if the numbers stack up for BJP, will it find stability amid the politics of negotiation? What about governance?

There seems to be no end to the Karnataka imbroglio, which is holding democracy to ransom and reducing it to a power fiefdom of the political class in the State, wholly disconnected from what its people want. Shedding even the pretence of constitutional propriety, the ruling Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) alliance and the Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have turned governance into an attrition of avarice and naked greed, both trying to steal each other’s numbers to keep the top chair. If the BJP, rankled after missing the bus despite being the single largest party, has been on a year-long destabilisation mission by prying off ruling legislators with lucre, the Congress-JD(S) cannot escape criticism either now for inordinately delaying a trust vote in the hope of buying time and taming its rebels. Such has been a single-minded pursuit of toppling each other that whoever comes to power will only be perpetuating a game of numbers, walking on pins and needles to save each day rather than risking a visionary model of government. And despite the cardboard claims of a “judgement day” by Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy, the only judgement day could come when the current crop of leaders get voted in or out for their legitimate worth by the voters. And if in that process, the BJP and the Congress  have to do some blood-letting, so be it. Corruption has fouled the image of both national parties in the State and made them both appear as eager hosts of creepy parasites. For though Karnataka is one of our highest GDP States in the country, the fact remains that the past year of policy paralysis has meant that key challenges have not been addressed, primary among them being that of crumbling infrastructure and an immediate dispersion of industries, the Cauvery waters and the very real problem of urban regeneration and remodelling because of scarcity of a precious resource. Then there is the agrarian crisis. Over 35,000 farmers committed suicide between April 2013 and November 2017, the second highest after Maharashtra, according to NCRB data. Of these, nearly 2,500 had suffered crop failure and drought.

The Congress has had to bear the worst burden of the Kumaraswamy government’s non-performance. By taking on a minority partner and elevating it to the top chair, the Congress has been reduced to powerlessness while being part of the power structure and even perhaps having the better adeptness. The alliance with the father-son duo of HD Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy cost the party not only Lok Sabha seats but denuded the stature of former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. The Congress high command’s intervention in the deal and setting up a rival in D Shiva Kumar as its face has only heightened dissension within the party and fractured its ranks. This is the reason why its legislators are deserting like rats. And now though stuck with Kumaraswamy in the floor test, fresh elections or sitting in the Opposition benches are far better options for the party than ticking off a State that it can milk for relevance. Appealing to the Supreme Court, against the no-whip clause as violative of the spirit of the anti-defection law, seems desperate. Of course, in matters of seeking the trust vote, BJP’s Yeddyurappa has been slightly better than Kumaraswamy, choosing to resign when he knew he didn’t have the numbers. Even now he is quoting the strength of his party MLAs rather than giving into speculation that the dissident MLAs would join the BJP ranks. Assuming he gets a second shot at power, can he be sure that the assured support by defecting MLAs would hold? As it is, his proximity to the mining barons of Bellary is not looked at with much grace by the central BJP leadership that would like to stay away from any insinuation that it had a role in purchasing legislators. Audio tapes of his conversation with Congress MLAs during the last Assembly session still foreshadow his political intent. Be that as it may, the BJP cannot do without Yeddyurappa, too, as he is the face of the Lingayats, an identity plank that still has potential. And considering Prime Minister Narendra Modi keeps on quoting Basavanna and bases his schemes on his philosophy, the BJP cannot do without Yeddyurappa. But then can the party risk being seen as a power-grabber so soon after relinquishing a chance last summer? Will the BJP keep to the murky sense of righteousness, what with MLAs refusing to vacate the Assembly, or seek another mandate?

Writer & Courtesy: The Pioneer