The vibrancy, sleaze and palace intrigues of Indian democracy mirror its progenitor model in Great Britain but it still lacks the latter’s accountability, honesty and professionalism
As the intrigues, twists and moral dilemmas of Indian politics ensue, the brilliant but controversial enfant terrible of British politics, Winston Churchill’s truism about democracy rings true: “The Opposition occupies the benches in front of you but the enemy sits behind you.” Widely hailed as one of the “Greatest Britons”, Churchill had a deeply unsavoury side that manifested in his irrefutable role in the Bengal famine and his clearly racist opinions about Gandhi, Islam and the Jews among others. The quintessential politician had a penchant for party hopping, or “ratting” as it was called.
Never short of wit to describe his political fleet-footedness, Churchill justified jumping from the Conservatives to the Liberals to back the former by saying, “It is easy for an individual to move through those insensible gradations from the Left to the Right but the act of crossing the floor is one which requires serious consideration. I am well informed on this matter, for I have accomplished that difficult process not only once but twice.” However, it can be argued that Churchill’s political dalliances were principle-based and not just sheer opportunism, given the free trade absolutism professed by him — one which got compromised initially by the Conservatives (who developed protectionist instincts) and then by the Liberals.
The Indian democracy is based on the British Westminster style of parliamentary democracy and serendipitously, in the middle of the latest political revolt in Rajasthan, an Opposition leader alluded to Churchill’s predecessor and bete noire, Neville Chamberlain, as an analogy to questionable decision-making. To some extent, the vibrancy, sleaze and “palace intrigues” of Indian democracy mirror its progenitor model in Great Britain but Indian politics has not evolved on some more substantial aspects like accountability, honesty and professionalism that have a higher imprint in British politics currently.
Put simply, partisan moorings of the British politicians on either side of the fence are more ideological, pronounced and a matter of personal faith. Whereas, in the context of Indian politics, it is a matter of “ticket”, legacy, ambition or even hate of the proverbial “other,” all of which define partisan preferences. In British politics, the evolutionary process is breaking down and the blurring of stereotypes of certain socio-cultural gravitation towards partisan preferences, for example, Tony Blair’s New Labour movement, is on. But religion, race, ethnicity, background or region still drive overwhelming preferences in the Indian context.
A uniquely Indian phenomenon of playing down one’s personal ambition in favour of ascribing sharp political move to “what my supporters would advise” or conversely in “abiding by the party whip as a loyal soldier of the party” is hilariously untrue, cliched and convenient.
Another tired expression that barely masks the reality is the attribution of getting caught (prima facie) in a sticky situation to a rote and insipid, “it is a political conspiracy against me.” The largest democracy in the world has not evolved in matters of expression, honesty and justifications. Continuing double standards of morality have been thrown into the admixture to truly exemplify the saying, “Politics is the last refuge of the scoundrel.” Not really so in British politics.
In Britain, there is a finely developed culture of “internal democracy” that frequently and openly facilitates cross-party voting on crucial matters. Brexit was a typical example of multiparty huddles that composed the Brexiteer camp or the Remainiacs. In Indian politics, to assume intellectual or ideologically contrarian positions from the party leadership stand (even neutrality, if not opposition) is the surest and fastest test of “disloyalty” that amounts to political suicide.
The dictatorial strain of an obsequious “high command” culture is celebrated and not frowned upon — literally from attributing divinity to professing blind faith. This is par for the course in Indian politics.
Another remarkable difference is the relative grace with which incumbents to the high offices bid farewell, often willingly. Four of the last seven Prime Ministers of the UK left 10 Downing Street not owing to electoral defeat by the Opposition party but due to leadership changes necessitated on account of their own diminishment within the ruling party.
More importantly, age is not the criterion to justify their over-staying at the political centre-stage. A 49-year-old David Cameron left active politics with his final farewell speech comment, “I was the future once.” Cameron had resigned after the Brexit referendum went against his stated position to “stay” and he assumed moral (not legal) responsibility for the result. His exit paved way for his colleague Theresa May. Later, May herself was unable to see through the Brexit task and was replaced by her party member Boris Johnson.
Importantly, May had no qualms about assuming the “back bench” and continues to serve her constituency as a regular Member of Parliament. May’s farewell speech as the Prime Minister concluded with, “I will shortly leave the job that has been the honour of my life to hold — the second female Prime Minister but certainly not the last. I do so with no ill-will but with enormous and enduring gratitude to have had the opportunity to serve the country I love.” Such graceful political exits are unthinkable in the Indian context.
Our politicians perpetuate the ostensibly selfless line of “serving the people” with much grandiosity and pomposity even as the uniquely Indian phenomenon of “resort quarantining”, “horse trading” and “accommodating rivals till recently with ministerships” continues. No political party in India can honestly claim to be cleaner than the other.
Candidates of dubious personal credentials win votes and seats for all parties — only the “monopoly on truth” changes hands with the dispensations in power, who dominate the airtime. While we have a lot to begrudge Winston Churchill for what he believed in and inflicted on India, his words were profound nonetheless, “In war, you can only be killed once but in politics, many times.” This moral or ideological death seems to be an insignificant price in our politics as we are able to adjust to any narrative, irrespective of the substance.
(The writer, a military veteran, is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands)
Tiger numbers are up but with one in three big cats living outside reserves, the man-animal conflict is a bigger threat
Such was the crisis of tigers in 2006, when their numbers fell to a paltry 1,411, that any increase since then has been a cause for celebration. So when we had a healthy count of 2,967 in 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi took it upon himself to announce the census findings. The Environment Ministry’s latest report, Status of Tigers, Co-predators and Prey in India, confirms this steady trend, showing a six per cent rise in India’s tiger population from 2006 to 2018. From just nine tiger reserves when Project Tiger started in 1973, the country has 50 today. However, the devil is in the detail and while the overall numbers may be good, the uneven distribution pattern of the big cat is warning enough that there could be a future crisis if we don’t address gaps now. The report says that one in every three tigers lives outside reserves compared to one in every four in 2014, or 35 per cent live outside park limits. This means that the big cat’s territoriality and roaming range are being compromised because of shrinkage of habitat and if it is straying, it is exposing itself that much more to conflict with humans as well as members of its own species. The second problem is that of cramping and saturation at certain reserves that would need migratory conduits linking them to other habitats. Uttarakhand’s Corbett Tiger Reserve has reported the highest tiger density with 14 tigers per 100 sq km, followed by Kaziranga, Nagarhole and Orang parks. This means that even if forest limits cannot be extended or linked, some provision for open grasslands would have to be made around them so that they can support herbivores, which form the prey base of the tigers. Corbett now has the highest tiger numbers with 231 inside the reserve and 266 using it. It is followed by Nagarhole tiger reserve with 127 tigers, Bandipur with 126 tigers and Bandhavgarh and Kaziranga with 104 tigers each. These reserves are holding out because the prey base is still evenly distributed across ranges, allowing the species to thrive. At the same time, some tiger reserves like Buxa and Palamau have lost their felines simply because of human transit corridors, encroachment, proximity to development projects and insufficient prey base. Of course, one may argue that tigers can be re-introduced to the empty reserves from parks that have them in excess but as Sariska has shown, that takes time and immense patience. Besides, the tigers need to be sourced from the nearest forest simply because much of their survival depends on the genetic pool they come from and that increases the chance of their adaptability. Apart from peripheral villagers, a new tiger also has to deal with resident smaller cats or in the total absence of its kind, reconcile to being a lone ranger and adjust with other relocated companions. Most worryingly, the report lists poaching at an all-time high, India recording the highest number of cases in 15 years in the first quarter of 2016. Bones, claws, teeth and skin continue to be a draw in illegal markets.
While tiger numbers have increased, its habitats have been dwindling due to human encroachment, fast-track infrastructure projects and truncated wildlife corridors that restrict it from moving freely to other forests and exploring new ranges. This would automatically reduce cramping and help it spread out in a healthy manner. The report says tigers have lost 90 per cent of their natural habitat and the man-animal conflict has never been worse, therefore. Be it the killing of Avni last year, villagers beating up strayers or the confused tiger hitting back with a counter-charge, the headlines point to a dangerous trend of overpopulation not being commensurate with increase in prey-rich forest zones. The Wildlife Trust of India’s conflict database for Uttar Pradesh records 63 cases of attacks on humans by tigers from 2014 to February 2019, an average of 10.8 cases per year. This marks a dramatic increase from an average of 5.6 attacks on humans per year between 2000 and 2013. The tiger will stray into human settlements when its food chain is affected and villagers cannot be expected to prioritise the conservation economy when the lives of their own and the livestock are at stake. So awareness of tigers should now also include equal knowledge about its ecology and behaviour and the need to provide alternative ranges. Recent examples have shown how some railway underpasses to facilitate wildlife transit are working as both the elephant and tiger are adapting to changed migration routes. There are still viable tracts of pristine forests that were once contiguous and can be turned into reserves by relocating animals from overpopulated stretches. But forests are a State subject and an inter-state agreement on shared corridors needs to be worked out if translocation is to succeed. The tiger sits on top of the food chain in the forest and by saving it, we are saving our biosphere.
Victory in war requires not just sacrifice but also courage on our part and more importantly on the part of those occupying the highest levels of our political establishment
In the preface to his insightful work, Generalship: Its Disease and Cure, British military tactician Major-General JFC Fuller quotes an apocryphal tale told to him by a member of the French General Staff. “At the battle of Waterloo, Colonel Clement, an infantry commander, fought with bravery; but unfortunately, was shot through the head. Napoleon, hearing of his gallantry and misfortune, gave instructions for him to be carried into a farm where Larrey, the Surgeon-General, was operating. One glance convinced Larrey that his case was desperate, so taking up a saw he removed the top of Clement’s skull and placed his brains on the table. Just as he had finished, in rushed an Aide-de-Camp, shouting: ‘Is General Clement here?’ Clement, hearing him, sat up and exclaimed: ‘No! but Colonel Clement is. ‘Oh, General’, cried the Aide-de-Camp, ‘the Emperor was overwhelmed when he heard of your gallantry, and has promoted you on the field of battle to the rank of General.’ Clement rubbed his eyes, got off the table, clapped the top of his skull on his head and was about to leave the farm when Larrey shouted after him: ‘General. Your brains!’ To which the gallant Frenchman shouted back: Now that I am a General, I shall no longer require them!” Fuller went on to add that, “In this modest study, my object is to prove that though Clement was wrong about brains, without his courage there can be no true Generalship.”
One can go even further and suggest that the central premise of his argument is not just applicable to Generals, but just as much, if not more so, to politicians in power. While intellectual ability and competence are indeed vital, they amount to very little without courage. Of course, what is required of them is more in the realm of the mind than of the physical variety. Most crucially, however, we must not mistake a display of bravado for the genuine spirit. As the Cambridge Dictionary makes clear, bravado is only “a show of courage, especially when unnecessary and dangerous, to make people admire you.”
We recently witnessed an awesome display of sheer bravery and exemplary courage on the part of Colonel Babu and his gallant band during the Galwan confrontation. It was indeed no mean achievement at that altitude to not just counter the perfidious ambush that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had sprung on his unsuspecting team but to give back more than they got. That is self-evident from the lack of any formal acknowledgement of casualties by the PLA. One can be quite certain that if that had not been the case, the Chinese Communist mouthpiece, The Global Times, would have gone to town proclaiming victory.
However, this makes it essential for us to squarely confront the fact that while courage may win battles, the latter remain just small tactical victories. To emerge victorious in war requires not just enormous sacrifice, determination and decisiveness but also courage on our part and more importantly on the part of those occupying the highest levels of our military and political establishment. Sadly, all we have been witness to in all these days since the confrontation began has been a display of much bravado and bluster, especially on the part of our political leadership.
The problem of our inadequate quality of strategic communication is predicated by the fact that despite all its protestations, the Modi Government seems incapable of shedding its feudal mindset. Transparency would require it to admit that there has been gross negligence on its part in the manner that it has approached the issue of national security, which in turn, has resulted in the ongoing fiasco. Its shambolic attempts to gloss over the issue and change the narrative to avoid accountability have only added to its woes, as China was able to take advantage of its prevarications and embarrass it diplomatically.
While prudence dictates that much of what is happening on the ground, especially the actions initiated to resolve the issue to our advantage, need not be made public in the interest of security, it cannot be used as a licence to deny basic information that the citizens are entitled to. For that matter, it also needs to desist from its attempts to turn the spotlight away from the matter by resorting to creating turbulence within the Rajasthan Congress or by announcing a grand ceremony in Ayodhya on August 5.
Despite the Government’s best attempt to dissemble, it is now clear that the PLA is in possession of a fair amount of territory that we claim as our own though its actual or relative importance, either tactically or strategically, may be contested. For example, while its occupation of areas till Finger 4 in the Pangong Tso sector provides clear visual evidence of its aggressive intent, other than causing bruised egos and embarrassment, it is of little tactical or strategic value when compared to the ingress that has been effected in both the Depsang Plains and Hot Springs sectors.
Thus, while regaining every inch of territory that has been occupied may be tactically or strategically unwarranted or even unnecessary, how we handle the overall issue of Chinese aggression will be perceived to either signify appeasement and capitulation on our part or signal a firm determination and resolve that unprovoked aggression will be contested and will result in adverse consequences for the PLA. Clearly, we have seen that appeasement only results in further problems down the road, so that has to stop.
As is often the case in such circumstances, we are still neither very clear as to what led China to undertake such unprovoked aggressive action, nor what it hopes to accomplish. There have been suggestions that the Home Minister’s public call for liberating Aksai Chin and the construction of the road to Daulat Beg Oldi may have been the casus belli, as it may have felt we were keen to change the status quo or threaten the Tibet-Xinjiang Highway. Others have suggested that this action in Eastern Ladakh is just a feint to test our resolve and that the main offensive is likely to be directed towards seizing areas that it claims in Arunachal Pradesh.
While none of these possibilities can be ruled out, the existing force levels that China has committed within the Tibetan Autonomous Region do not suggest that a major offensive is on the cards. It is possible that the actions against India were just a diversionary tactic to keep us occupied, while Beijing’s true intention was to capture Taiwan before the Chinese Communist Party kicks of its centenary celebrations next year. This would, in fact, explain the move of two Pakistani divisions into the Gilgit-Baltistan Region, which could then operate in collusion with the PLA in the event of any escalation.
The recent deployment by the US Navy of two Carrier Strike Groups into the South China Sea (SCS) for “exercises”, with a third backing up, suggests that this speculation may well not have been too far off the mark. Not surprisingly the deployment of these Carrier Groups has forced the Chinese to reverse course, as can be deduced from the public statements calling for a reduction of tension in that region, despite increasing US belligerence. In the normal course then, they would look to cool tension along our borders as well.
However, that may not happen as President Xi Jinping needs some substantial success to save face domestically, which he can only achieve against us in these circumstances. It will not be easy for the PLA to shift the requisite force levels required for conducting a major offensive against us. Moreover, even if Xi can induct these forces speedily, he will continue to remain at a distinct disadvantage given his long lines of communication and terrain configuration.
In addition, China also faces a disadvantageous force ratio vis-à-vis the air forces and navy in this region. Xi would have by now got fresh insight into the fighting capabilities of our Army, which is experienced in high-altitude warfare.
Clearly all of this implies that even with the rather neglected state of our military, given the situation on the ground, we do have the option of responding with force. Such an option would have a reasonable chance of success and would indeed bluntly convey to the Chinese and the international community that such unprovoked aggressive actions have consequences. Obviously, such a response on our part would be the correct one, though we would have to factor in the possibility of conflict escalation, maybe even a two-front war. The question really is, do Modi and his top military leadership either have the appetite or the courage to embark on such a course?
(The writer, a military veteran, is a Consultant with the Observer Research Foundation)
Without traditional politicians, the Govt is finding it extremely difficult to re-engage with people and reintegrate Kashmir
If the Government’s charges for booking him after the abrogation of Article 370 — that his messages are divisive, could incite people and youngsters, that he was as much a separatist — were meant to demonise him, then former Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister and National Conference (NC) leader Omar Abdullah has shown why he is still the voice of reason. And how the Government underestimated his net worth that could have been used to push its claimed objective of developing and mainstreaming the State. Soon after his release, he asked people to follow COVID-19 protocols as it was no time for politics. Now that he has started to speak, he has the pulse again as he says he won’t take his protests to the streets but fight it out democratically and legally. Nor will he condone violence of any sort to reclaim people’s rights. He also said he wouldn’t be contesting elections till Kashmir continued to be a Union Territory but was ready to prove his worth if the Government re-converted it into a State. Of course, he regretted that for all his party’s participation in national politics and even campaigns for federal parties and Opposition unity, he didn’t get much political support from them on his incarceration as they wilted under the majoritarian force of the Modi Government. But he was anyway ready to focus on his land and people. Clearly, without traditional politicians like Omar, whom the BJP thought would stand in the way of reintegration, the Government is finding it extremely difficult to re-engage with people. And as the anniversary of the scrapping of Article 370 is just days away, it has not much of a transformation to show without the mediatory presence of local parties. Politically, it could not even conduct the panchayat and local-level polls successfully although it has been hoping to build a new narrative ground up with candidates friendly to it. Over 12,000 panchayat seats continue to be vacant. The BJP has not been able to raise an alternative political front or a political climate. It may have encouraged the formation of the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP) drawing rejects from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and NC, but it could not generate reassurance, least of all credibility, as it is purely transactional. The first stage for creating normalcy is restoring basic rights of people. While we are stressing under COVID-induced lockdowns, Kashmir has been writhing under perennial lockdown with a ban on 4G and an extremely limited mobility. While the rest of India is hooked on to digital classrooms, students in Kashmir are missing out on classes and are being denied online services like submission of forms, be it for job enrolment, registering a thesis or signing up for courses. Some students are coming down to Punjab or Jammu to access online study material or asking their kin and friends in other States to help. One would hate to hazard a guess on the adverse impact of wilfully denying education to the young people, some of whom are already voicing a conspiracy theory to keep Kashmiris out of competitive tests in India and abroad. With simmering discontent, the Government would be unwise to claim that the Valley is silent post the merger. It is just protest fatigue but that doesn’t mean the young won’t be drawn to violence or militancy. And while the rest of India is experiencing a booming digital economy post-lockdown, online portals and aggregators are hardly working in Kashmir. With no perceptible stability and peace, businesses had anyway stayed away from the Valley and the pandemic has further aggravated the sectors that were at least surviving. And even if some entrepreneurs are keen to be self-starters, militant threats keep them away. The core sectors of Kashmir’s economy, particularly agriculture driven by the apple trade, are on a downward spiral ever since the abrogation of Article 370. The sectors that were constant despite the turbulence, like tourism and handicrafts, have stalled and joblessness is at an all-time high. The domicile rights, by which the Government had hoped non-Kashmiris would settle in the Valley, have also backfired with the Dogras of Jammu and Buddhists of Ladakh now wary of outsiders, too. And for all the Centralisation of powers for greater efficiency, the local administration has become more corrupt.
In effect, even the most apolitical of Kashmiris are wondering why they have been subjugated so under a blanket assumption that they are all hostile. Why, despite being a populous territory, statehood cannot be restored now as Union Territories with lesser populations are now independent States? The rigidity of the Government is only proving to be counter-productive as just like in 1987, Pakistan is waiting to feed off this discontent and foment fresh trouble, having accelerated infiltration. The Government immediately needs to get some credible interlocutors to convey that it means business and does not want to be isolationist, that mutual negotiations with people’s representatives are possible without them harking back to Pakistan. Here it could have used Omar as an asset but has listed his ability “to convince his electorate to come out and vote in huge numbers even during the peak of militancy and poll boycotts” as a crime. If this “influencer” ability, something that the Atal Bihari Vajpayee regime prized to build a bridge over the conflict, is not investment-worthy, then the transition to a new narrative in Kashmir could be a colossal waste. Omar has been lionised by his captivity. His quiet resistance now could be a disabler than an enabler.
As young people around the globe get restless about lockdowns, they are contracting the virus
Undoubtedly, in the world’s battle against the novel virus, the risk takers, or those who have little respect for preventive protocols as needless excesses, have run down the risk-averse, or those who follow social distancing norms to quash the pandemic. With the result that COVID-19 is increasingly turning out to be a disease of the young with the tried and tested “stay at home” formula wearing off among millennials. Despite the re-imposition of lockdown restrictions, nations such as the US, Spain and Japan, to name a few, have seen a new wave of the virus, thanks to the fearless attitude of their youth, who feel their age is insurance enough against the pandemic. In Arizona, for example, half of all positive cases were among people aged between 20 and 44. In Texas’s Hays County, people in their 20s made up for 50 per cent of the victims. In Germany, college students were seen soaking in the sun in groups. As a result, Governments, which remain heavily dependent on public compliance to fight the pandemic in the absence of an effective vaccine, are left to confront a new set of problems. Rule-breaking is becoming the new normal as Generation Z is finding it difficult to maintain social distancing norms and faces psychological fatigue. For youngsters, the brazen re-opening of markets has meant exploitation of personal liberty. Bored of staying at home, feeling frustrated due to the lack of options to socialise and robbed of job opportunities, they have endless reasons to venture out — some have been commuting for work or care-giving, others can’t stay at home and have been visiting bars, beaches and nightclubs.
What has emboldened them all the more is reportage that younger people are less at risk of a severe COVID-19 infection/death. However, they cannot forget that even if they don’t suffer extremes and are asymptomatic, they are vectors and could endanger the susceptible lot. More than putting themselves at risk, they must think about the safety of others, be a bit more selfless than selfish. Examples from the ebola pandemic offer hope that the young could contain the present crisis by being mindful.
The National Employment Policy has to formulate a link between policy options, budgetary allocations and/or financial mechanisms, considering the convergence among sectors
Soon after the 2008 global financial crisis, 63 countries prepared a National Development Framework or National Employment Policy (NEP) to create a road map for employment generation, says the International Labour Organisation (ILO). There is evidence that other nations, too, are moving away from tackling employment issues solely through the use of active labour market policies. They are moving towards development and are adopting comprehensive NEPs, bringing together various sectoral measures, programmes and institutions that influence the dynamic demand and supply of labour and the functioning of the labour market, responding to the short, medium and long-term prospects and priorities.
The proposal to bring the NEP in India was introduced in 2008 during the first tenure of the UPA. An inter-ministerial group had examined the proposal but nothing concrete had emerged from it. In UPA-II, the then Minister of Labour and Employment Mallikarjun Kharge had said in the Rajya Sabha in 2010 that the NEP was under consideration. In 2016, the idea of the NEP took shape at the first meeting of the BRICS employment working group, after which the NDA Government started to work on it. Since then, the Government, policy makers, industry bodies, media and other stakeholders are continuously debating and rooting for a comprehensive NEP policy document.
The country needs one more than ever now as it is facing the dual challenge of the highest unemployment rate in the last 45 years and the onerous task of generating jobs for around 10 million entrants in the labour force every year. Other important issues are jobless growth, structural transformation, underemployment, informal employment, skilled workforce, high levels of educational enrolment and aspiration of the youth, sectoral issues, decent jobs and so on. In addition, the participation of women in the workforce is not only low but also declining since the 2000s. In this context, a NEP with a practical vision and a comprehensive macro-economic and sectoral policy roadmap for achieving the country’s employment goal is urgently required.
COVID-19, employment and livelihood: The Indian economy had slowed down before the outbreak but the ongoing pandemic has pushed it further into a recession. As per the data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the employment rate skyrocketed to 23.5 per cent in the months of April and May, owing to the hard lockdown. Apart from this, the CMIE has also estimated that 27 million youths in the age bracket of 20-30 years lost their jobs in April because of the lockdown. This will have a greater impact on livelihoods in the future.
Further, these problems differ across regions and sectors of employment. Therefore, recognising these challenges and putting in place appropriate policy responses to tackle them are a priority. As multiple forces ranging from technological advances, climate change to demographic changes transform the world of work, the absence of a decisive policy action will further disrupt livelihoods and exacerbate inequalities. The Government needs to take appropriate steps urgently to assess the current employment situation in the country, including the macroeconomic environment, demographic context and sectoral challenges in employment generation, following which it will set targets and monitor them.
NEP amid the pandemic: Given the huge job losses due to the contagion’s socio-economic impact, assisting the labour force is important during this crisis. Since numerous social protection programmes are already in place for workers, a NEP would be important for understanding the dynamics of benefits for workers, employers and the Union and State Governments.
The recent push for a NEP on a fast track basis by the Minister of Labour and Employment is a welcome move. The Labour Minister has asked officials to look at the employment policy while keeping in mind the challenges and disruptions that have occurred because of COVID-19. India has ample intellectual and practical knowledge to formulate a policy that takes into consideration gender, caste and ecological concerns. The lack of such a policy could result in a warped economic transformation, resulting in avoidable stress on employment, social and gender harmony.
Labour empowerment: It is very important to have an inclusive policy, which caters to the challenges and needs of the marginalised, women, divyangs (physically challenged) and so on. The aspirational districts and the priority sectors needing more attention must be identified. This will go a long way in achieving the principles of ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikaas, Sabka Vishwas (together with all, for the development of all and with the trust of all)’. The NEP will have an immense advisory role and create road maps for clarity. Moral persuasion and appropriate signalling are important to ensure consistency, predictability, stability and a strong future outlook for ensuring confidence at par with India competitors. This would detail the direction of the economy in a holistic manner.
New investment areas, entrepreneurship, innovative initiatives, start-up ecosystems, gig economy, conventional sectors, studies and projects would identify the new and emerging focus areas for continuous feedback into the system.
Research and development is the core of the NEP. The policies and schemes of relevant Ministries and committees need to be streamlined and studied to collect evidence and provide essential inputs for policy-making since it is an ongoing process.
The NEP will also be crucial for implementation, monitoring and evaluation. This is important for Digital India’s objectives and outcome-based decision- making as per the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation and NITI Aayog’s recent efforts for data and planning. For this, the maintenance of a real-time database and repository and monitoring of the employment status of the labour force is important. It would require enormous efforts in the beginning but would yield more than proportionate results in the immediate future.
In times of disasters and State and national emergencies, the NEP would provide a backbone and architecture to complement the efforts of the Government and maximise relief to the affected families and enterprises. This would minimise economic losses and optimise the use of limited resources. This would complement the Prime Minister’s vision of a New India and help in achieving the $5 trillion economy with special emphasis on “labour respect and empowerment.”
Atma Nirbhar Bharat and New India: The NEP can provide a comprehensive framework, with inclusive and sustainable planning, an enabling environment and a holistic, impactful approach towards decent employment and the vision of a New India. The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) eight focusses on promoting sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all. The consultation paper for the draft National Urban Policy Framework, 2018 is an important document template for the NEP to start taking shape. In the past, most policy documents pertaining to the NEP, by and large, have been suggestive in nature.
There is an urgent need for a comprehensive NEP, based on responsive real-time data analysis, integrating sectors that will help emerging sectoral employment policies and programmes amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The preparation of the NEP warrants a broad-based national consensus among various stakeholders. This can be ensured through a consultative process by taking various stakeholders’ views and the constituents’ demands into consideration during the policy formulation process.
The most important part of the NEP is to formulate a link between policy options, budgetary allocations and/or financial mechanisms, considering the convergence among various departments or sectors. Further, an institutional framework detailing roles and responsibilities for the implementation and monitoring of progress should also be part of the policy document.
Such a policy document will effectively help in formulating appropriate employment strategies which ensure decent work, empowerment and sustainability towards an ‘Atma Nirbhar Bharat’ and contribute significantly towards achieving the goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
(Mehta is Research Director and Kumar is Director, IMPRI)
The new Cold War between the US and China will not be anything like the old one
During the Korean War in the early 1950s, the US came extremely close to dropping a nuclear weapon on China. In fact, had the then American President, Harry Truman, not fired General Douglas MacArthur, the maverick would have left north-east Asia in a decade-long nuclear winter. But America did not nuke China. Instead, ever since the Sino-Soviet split in the late 1960s, the US has worked towards economically empowering the Middle Kingdom in an attempt to weaken the hold of communism. As such, the Communist Party of China (CPC) is “communist” in name only, overseeing a capitalist empire, thanks to the US and its preferential trade agreements, all of which helped it nurture ambitions of a global conquest. With China now challenging the US, it appears that much like the Taliban, the US has nurtured another monster, the CPC.
However, unlike the Taliban, this monster is one that America will have to fight sooner or later. The CPC might be antagonising all its neighbours, particularly with its latest scrap with India, but the US knows that it will have to tame the dragon. America’s move to shut down the Chinese consulate in Houston, alleging that it is a spying centre, is drastic and will escalate the already deteriorating ties between the two. Houston is the nerve centre of the US’ space programme and with America making its intentions clear about returning to the Moon and going to Mars, China is keen to keep a hawk’s eye. Of course, China ordered the closure of the US consulate in the south-western city of Chengdu as a result but the US’ crackdown on China — not only on the trade front but particularly on spying as well as militarily — is almost certain to pass on to the next administration even if Democrat Joe Biden wins the November 2020 presidential race. Much of this is China’s own doing. Its President Xi Jinping’s supreme arrogance has led to previously neutral nations like India moving into the US sphere. There is no doubt that Xi wants to make China a global power but the world today is much clearer about his country’s intentions. India cannot cop out of this fight. It has to stand up for itself and readily back the US.
(Courtesy: The Pioneer)
Gehlot continues his leverage with the Congress, brandishing legislators and now incriminating audio tapes
It doesn’t look like conditions are conducive for Sachin Pilot to continue as a Congressman for too long, leave aside in Rajasthan, which he had nurtured as his political karmabhoomi and for which he is claiming rightful accommodation. And if he is indeed disqualified or declared unattached, should the courts not be happy with his explanation on why he defied diktats for party meetings or why his dissent is freedom of speech, he would be out in the cold. But he’s not giving up the fight yet. Given the vituperative campaign mounted against him, it appears that while he may be a vote-catcher, he is not a power converter or as artful a politician as his rival from the old guard, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. The latter continues to have a hold on the legislators and the organisational matrix, something that had compelled the Congress high command to name him Chief Minister while making Pilot his deputy despite the latter shoring up the party’s tally across the State. Gehlot has been trying to drive Pilot away from the very beginning, limiting his powers. Then came the sedition charge, accusing him of trying to topple the Government in connivance with the BJP during the Rajya Sabha polls, although the Congress won that round. But it worked as a perfect trap with Pilot walking into it and declaring his freedom from imposed indignities. And now to make sure that his loyalists desert him in a fruitless and asymmetrical battle, Gehlot has released audio recordings of topple game plans between MLAs close to Pilot and the BJP. The party went so far as to name Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat in an FIR, saying it had his voice on tape. The Congress has suspended rebel MLAs Bhanwar Lal Sharma and Vishvendra Singh from primary membership, a clear signal to Pilot that his fate would be no better. Pilot still denies the overthrow attempts and says he is not joining the BJP but stacked up against a visible show of strength, has little legroom to defend himself. He may appear offensive but fact is Gehlot fuelled his impatience and instead of settling intra-party differences like the smooth administrator he is, let them fester. The CM has herded a majority of the legislators, promised rewards to them and threatened Pilot camp MLAs with disqualification, saying they would stand to lose. And with the police investigation and audio clips, he has managed to convince the Congress central leadership that Pilot had indeed overreached his ambitions to the extent of confabulating with the BJP. The stern statements endorsing Gehlot’s line of argument coming from Central emissary Randeep Singh Surjewala is proof enough that Gehlot has again been able to leverage numbers to justify his continuity as a chieftain. This despite certain reconciliatory voices of senior leaders and the Gandhi scions who held off Pilot from making a rash decision. Gehlot has also made sure that by embarrassing and calling out the BJP, which was attempting a subtle kind of Operation Lotus, and weaning away some MLAs off Pilot, he looks less attractive as an investment.
The Rajasthan imbroglio shows why the Congress will always be a party of status quo since its old hawks, who have been allowed to unquestioningly harvest their own fiefs while humouring the central leadership, will simply not allow any scope for improvement or inspire the young to take over the baton. If any paratrooping attempt is made, then they threaten rebellion and given the years of familiarity at the local level, they have a far stronger federal appeal and strength of personality to fall back upon. Ask Pilot, who has made inroads but his appeal is just incremental to the resources of Gehlot. He is still a challenger to the chieftain. It shows that even the younger Gandhis, Rahul and Priyanka, have no say as Gehlot went ahead with his belligerence despite their warnings. Gehlot can easily turn himself victim of the younger dynasts, claiming he has always pledged his loyalty to them. And since the States are mostly with the old guard, even Rahul and Priyanka are not confident of swinging things their way and assuage the ascendant ambitions of the younger lot. The Young Turks are no longer young, now in their middling 40s and 50s, and are desperate to register some career benchmarks than continue to be faceless foot soldiers. And given India’s changing political landscape, the dynamism of younger federal leaders and a more performance-driven verve in public discourse, they just don’t want to wait in a queue. The old hawks are 60 plus themselves and had actually seized the reins of leadership quite young. So they will never understand this angst. Perhaps that’s why Rahul himself, frustrated at 50, had stepped down as party president last year. Yes, the old guard wants Rahul back as leader, not for any altruistic reason but simply because the old warriors want to use his surname to shield themselves from taking responsibility for the party’s falling fortunes. As for Pilot, he has to lie low for a while than seem power-hungry and even with his own outfit, clustered around prominent Gujjar votes, he would still have to, at some point, deal with the BJP. Then he would have to forget chief ministership for 2023 as BJP has no less claimants. Meanwhile, the Congress may be missing the woods for the trees. Trees which stand despite being reduced to stumps.
(Courtesy: The Pioneer)
Even before the Covid 19 catastrophe, the USA was doing everything economically possible to lose its multiple battles to the Chinese. Its dollar hegemony was getting steadily eroded as segments of trade were steadily moving out to multiple other currencies. President Trump was succeeding in antagonizing most global leaders, he was under attack at home, his trade war with China had hurt economic growth for most economies, and his domestic ratings were dropping. What made emperor Xi Jinping decide that 2020 was the year that he dethroned the USA and establish the RMB as the new reserve currency is the world?
Let’s see if some forecasts of economic parameters for 2019 and 2030 by a few American think-tanks make sense. They projected that in Purchasing Power parity terms, in 2019 the Chinese GDP was already larger than the USA’s GDP and by 2030 it could be up-to 70% larger. As a share of Global output China would grow to 32% from 20% currently, as opposed to the USA declining from 16% to 10%. In terms of Global Market Capitalisation the Chinese would grow to 25% from 5% in 2019, whilst the USA would decline from 40% to 18%. China’s share of global exports would rise to 18% from 12% whilst the USA would be static at 8%. The above forecasts were supported by massive Chinese investments in Education in the fields of Mathematics, Science, Technology, Medicine and rapidly improving the quality of education. The number of STEM students would outnumber the USA by a factor of five times. Chinese ranking in Fintech is number 1, Wearables , Virtual Reality, Education Tech, Autonomous Driving is 2, and in Artificial Intelligence they are a close third behind the USA and UK. 34% of the world’s unicorns are Chinese as opposed to 47% for the USA, but in terms of market capitalization they were on par.
Starting with the 1980’s the Chinese had successfully got the world’s manufacturing supply chain to relocate to China, and were truly the “factory of the world”. From a pure labour arbitrage offering, they created world class infrastructure (Cities, Roads, Ports, Airports) to support it. The top 2500 corporates outside China all had a business presence in China. This aggressive export led growth model allowed the Chinese to radically improve per capita income, and in the process also create a massive domestic consumption engine. A 40% domestic savings rate supported the huge developments that happened on their Eastern Seaboard. Till 2012 the Chinese government was sitting on Foreign Exchange Reserves of close to $5 Trillion. Over time Chinese labour had become a very skilled workforce, moved up the value chain and was no longer cheap. China now imported/consumed 45-50% of virtually every commodity in the world even though more than half of it was re-exported.
Chinese leaders till 2012 had made the country keep a low profile , hiding their strengths, whilst they relentlessly gained market share from the world. Asian growth engines Japan and South Korea had also felt compelled to move/make tangible manufacturing investments in China. The Chinese had mastered the skill of acquiring the world’s IPR ‘s by any means-true implementers of Chanakya-Niti(sama, dama, danda, bheda). Their Chinese Communist Party(CCP) command and control structure had also silently expanded their Foreign Ministry with requisite resources to create a Public Relations repository in every major country, to manage the national discourse on any prickly subject in their favour. This three decade profile started changing with Xi Jinping’s ascension to Chairmanship in 2012.
The Chinese strategists now started believing that the Middle Kingdom deserved to rule the world. They changed the nomenclature of the 21 st. century being an Asian century to a Chinese century. They mapped that post 2008 Global Financial Institutions were weakened, substantially dysfunctional and lacking leadership. They unleashed a project of achieving complete Chinese dominance in the manpower of every multilateral agency and United Nations body in the world. Chinese students were encouraged to study overseas and many persuaded to join these organizations, and as so many FBI investigations are now showing made instruments of Government policy.
The collapse of the USSR in the 1990’s and the profligacy of the US financial sector in 2008 had left a leadership vacuum in many areas. Xi Jinping moved rapidly to occupy the vacancies. China needed to secure its supply chain as it neither produced adequate food for its population, nor was endowed with manufacturing or energy raw materials. Chinese leadership wanted to avoid supply side shocks and created strategies to acquire assets surreptitiously. They moved rapidly to fund every country and project that the World Bank or rest of the world would not find viable. The Chinese wanted to eventually acquire the underlying asset and default was hence a preferred option for them. This juggernaut covered 150 countries and nearly $5 Trillion in loans/investments. The new Chairman had successfully
over-invested the Chinese USD reserves, and left his country very vulnerable. They desperately needed their Dollar engine( Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Portfolio Investment, and Foreign Currency Loans) to keep firing quickly to recoup their position, or alternately fast track their long term vision to get global trade out of the dollar and into the RMB.
Unluckily for the Chinese two things changed the landscape in 2017. President Trump had won the US election and was a wildcard that the Chinese read wrongly. Secondly the world economy started topping out, and growth started stalling. The Chinese engine was not designed to handle economic contraction. Fault-lines in the domestic economy led by huge non performing loans in domestic State Owned Enterprises. Ghost cities started appearing, as domestic demand stalled, whilst domestic real estate started going belly-up. The country was overbuilt and no more infrastructure spending was needed. Trump started the trade war and insisted that the Chinese reduce the Trade surpluses. President Xi erred massively in not giving Trump a cheap victory, and getting the Americans riled.
American strategists had clearly war-games that the days of the USD hegemony were numbered, and if their political dominance was to be extended, a war with China was not an option, the only question was timing. By a strange coincidence the two technology hardware giants USA and China were tangibly dependent on Taiwan for their Semiconductor underbelly. Taiwan has a dominant share in the Semiconductor foundries globally, and both the USA and China are dependent on them. The Americans had anticipated this and a JV with the Taiwanese would go operational in Arizona in 2023. Till then any military threat to Taiwan would be an attack on their technology dominance, an intolerable thought for them. Democrat Presidents had soft-pedaled on the One China policy, and the Chinese had succeeded in getting away with their wish-lists. The Americans had celebrated access to a large consumption market, but landed up creating a rival.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army(PLA) in manpower terms is the largest standing armed force on the globe. The PLA and CCP moved fast to upgrade weapon systems, stealing blueprints and buying where they could not .Theoretically they are a lethal strike force. However the navy is their Achilles heel, and they lack best in class aircraft carriers and submarines. This limits their ability to protect their interests spanning 150 countries.75% of Chinese oil still moves in tankers through the narrow Malacca Straits. To reach the Arabian sea by land they invested in a bankrupt Pakistan by constructing the CPEC which links Xinjiang to Gwadar Port and is a dedicated economic corridor. They also engaged east European and European countries to construct the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for creating dedicated freight corridors to 50 European cities. In the process they have de-risked their trade supply routes, but their oil buy routes lie exposed.
The nightmare for China achieving dominance is that Indian land illegally occupied by Pakistan is being used by CPEC and India reacquiring POK by use of military power could render their $66 Billion investment in Pakistan useless, blocking oil supply. The Chinese realized that economic sanctions against Iran had crippled the proud country, that it had 15% of the world’s oil, needed investments, and so decided to bust sanctions on Iran imposed by the United Nations (they were party to imposing them). China and Iran signed a 25 year Trade and Military alliance in June 2020. China has bet on the USA exiting Afghanistan in 2020, and by using the Pakistani’s to install a puppet regime in Afghanistan, they could take a pipeline from Iran to Xinjiang. In turn the Chinese have to pump in the equivalent of $400 Billion into Iran’s development, which they can crank their RMB economy to deliver. Where does that leave the Pakistani’s?
In the interim President Xi got the CCP to appoint him as the leader for life and emerged as an emperor. The CCP decided that by its 100th anniversary in 2021, they would stamp themselves as “numero uno” in the world. A few pinpricks remained. Taiwan and Hong-kong as independent democracies were an eyesore, and raised aspirations of good life in mainland Chinese youth. They had to be acquired by coercion or force at the earliest. The South China sea had $4 Trillion of supply chain that transited the route. China laid claims to territories/islands of all its neighbours and started constructing artificial islands as missile bases. They started bullying and humiliating Australia since 70% of Australian mining exports were bought by China. Singularly none of the Asian countries could take on China, but many could exact a heavy toll if it came to conflict. The Chinese flirted with conflict with all their neighbours using “wearing down” tactics.
The success of this gambit hinged on the continuity of their trade with the USA, heavily skewed in their favour. President Trump not getting an early trade war win, upped the ante, imposing a $250 Billion annual hit on China. Chinese perhaps felt that US corporations would not listen to their government and continue business as usual. They floated a trial balloon by abrogating the agreement with Hong Kong which would have lapsed in 2047, and suppressing protests with brute force. Then they ostensibly colluded/ manipulated the WHO and unleashed the Covid 19 pandemic on the world infecting every country on the planet. This collapsed world economies and has created a very strong anti-China sentiment.
It has resulted in fast tracking the creation of the Quad, an alliance of the USA, Japan, Australia and India to take on the Chinese. UK, France and Israel are openly in support of the Quad, whilst Vietnam, Myanmar, Philippines, Indonesia ,Taiwan and South Korea have alerted their armed forces for battle readiness. In the Chinese camp are North Korea, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey with anti-India squeaks emerging from Nepal, Bangladesh and SriLanka.
With China designated as world enemy number 1, even Joe Biden has ratcheted up the anti-China rhetoric, lest President Trump steal the thunder and a potentially lost election by a war with China before November this year. The Indian and Chinese armies are facing off across 3400 Km. border, and a tense peace prevails currently. The Middle East has so far stayed quiet, but by default will have to choose sides as a Shia Iran and a Sunni Pakistan and Turkey side with the Chinese. It is an uneasy time for the Saudi’s and the UAE. It is ironic that the OIC and its 54 member countries including the” Turkish caliphate” maintain a studied silence on China incarcerating nearly 3 million Uyghur muslims in Xinjiang, and possibly Chinese money silences their conscience when no Uyghur child can have the name Mohammed(as per media reports).
The Koreans however had seen this coming two years earlier and Samsung had moved an $18 Billion annual capacity out of China to Vietnam. Japan has incentivized its corporations to exit China totally. India has banned Chinese Telecom equipment and Apps with immediate effect. There is a very strong anti-Chinese imports movement starting in India, and may set an example for the world to follow. China’s partners in BRI and in Africa are resenting the usurious conditions in their loan agreements. The Americans are shutting off access to their Capital markets to the Chinese, and cancellation of the Hong Kong treaty will kill the USD supply route to China. The Chinese Balance of payments is negative for the last few months, and days of surpluses are now a memory. They still need to buy food and oil and commodities.
Even nature seems to have conspired to ruin Emperor Xi’s timing. China is being ravaged by the worst ever floods in the last 100 years with 29 of its provinces impacted, and the survival of the showpiece Three Gorges Dam under threat from heavy rain which could affect nearly 400 Million people as downstream cities including Shanghai could be impacted. Scams like fake Gold collateral has shaken China’s $5 Trillion Shadow banking industry as the Kingold default is by a powerful former CCP member. It also puts a question mark on the credibility of China’s domestic gold production which is part of its National Reserves, as to how much of it is gold plated copper. Will anyone in the world now ever trust a Chinese certification of gold. This scandal has seriously damaged China’s plans of having a partial gold backed alternate currency to replace the dollar.
The silent spectator in the entire game is Russia. They are happy selling their weapon systems to China, India and Turkey. In the EU, the Germans have broken ranks with France and chosen to placate the Chinese. They have removed Taiwan’s flag from their website and refused to criticize Chinese action in Hong Kong, leaving a non-state flag of Palestine intact .It is ironic that this once proud industrial giant is now subservient to a regime with ambitions very similar to Hitler. Early days but it signals the cracks in the EU, and are its days as a common market nearing a close?
The world now sits on a powder keg in the midst of the Covid crisis. Funnily it is China’s 150 debtor countries (especially Pakistan) that must be praying for a fall and dismemberment of their Lender, for them to escape losing their sovereignty which they have so negligently mortgaged. President Trump and Emperor Xi now have gone too far for either of them to back-down without losing their crowns. For Trump it’s just an election, but the world knows what happens to deposed Chinese dictators. The South Asian countries all want Tibet to regain its independence after being annexed by the Chinese in 1950 so that they all get their fresh water security back.
The Chinese till the last four years maintained an inscrutable long term game plan in every sphere and slowly and steadily acquired a position of dominance. It is inexplicable that with chips falling in their favour by default, why did they have to speed up the time table. The USA was busy scoring self goals, and vacating its global presence, and in five years would have handed the Chinese global dominance on a platter. Thus the trigger to the timeline was not a global prod, but very compelling domestic reasons. China’s banking regulator has advised domestic banks to be prepared for sharp rises in bad loans once the Covid moratorium period is over. It has guided banks to conserve capital by not paying dividends and bonuses. Three Chinese banks have collapsed in the last three years, and 15% of the Financial sector is supposedly past a high risk stage. Tax revenues have grown under 5%, and budget deficits exceed 11%. In the Hebei province (population 70 Million) bank depositors cannot withdraw their own money
without genuine reasons to prevent a run on the banks. The season of discontent for 1.4 Billion Chinese has arrived.
China created the BRI to use the surplus capacity in its construction materials and equipment sector, and to keep Chinese labour occupied. Experts estimate that this project needs another $ 5Trillion over the next five years to complete it. The money given to 150 countries cannot be recalled. The Hong Kong door may be closed by the Americans if push comes to shove. The FDI and FPI flows post Covid may flow outwards. China’s $10 Trillion foreign debt is realistically supported by $2 Trillion of reserves. With Balance of Trade going negative, even diehard Chinese supporters are a highly nervous lot. If China’s trading partners do not agree to settlements denominated in the RMB, a run on the currency is highly possible.
The dilemma for the Xi led CCP is what do they tell their domestic audience. In the age of the internet, you can censor but not hide. News spreads like wildfire with every citizen carrying smart-phones. Do the Chinese need to beat the war-drums to transfer the blame for their miscalculations. The world scenario is evolving every week, and 2020 threatened to be a very long year indeed.
Sanjit Paul Singh (Managing Partner S&S associates)
Gehlot has numbers but Sachin Pilot has the perception and goodwill. Congress will suffer a body blow if he leaves
That ego wars have killed the Congress is old news. What’s new is that it considers its factionalism as a championship round in an arena between suitable claimants to leadership and revels in the challengers it produces as an asset rather than a weakness. Challengers mean a second rung is ready and the top leadership can be held in check. And both can be used against each other. To the point that even when it is on the brink of disaster, now beginning to lose its State Governments despite a verdict in its favour, it refuses to acknowledge challengers who become the new winners and turns them into rebels. This is exactly what has happened in Madhya Pradesh and now in Rajasthan. This feudalistic pursuit, of course, flows from its dynastic leadership that wants to be feted as the only hope of a party of warring chieftains. The old warriors, who have unquestioningly accepted the primacy of Gandhis in deciding what’s good for the party, humoured them even, have sought satrap status to rule over their home turfs on their terms in return for delivering election results. This mutual prosperity flourished till the political landscape itself changed to reward a more ground-up, fresh-faced and performance-driven parties and leaders. The Congress didn’t even bother to broadbase its own structure by way of holding organisational polls, leave aside transforming itself. Even when Rahul Gandhi assumed leadership with his peers like Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot to usher in a new wave, it was merely cosmetic. Scindia and Pilot though chose to live down their dynastic entitlements and in their mid-40s, desperately wanted to create their own political legacy. To that extent, both gave up their comfort zones in Delhi and worked the ground in their States, resurrecting Congress fortunes in the process. But both were never given what they wanted, the chief ministership of their States despite delivering a winning verdict. The Gandhis were more scared of a senior revolt that would be difficult to quell than handling disappointed Young Turks, who being Rahul’s friends and confidants, could, they thought, be won over. The Gandhi scion ultimately kowtowed to his mother Sonia Gandhi’s propensity to go with old loyalists rather than risk them holding the party hostage by threatening breakaway units and worse, undercutting it. Rahul would never rebel because even the old hawks would endorse him so long as they continued their free run and left him to face the critique and responsibility of Congress fortunes. So there’s no fight left for Rahul, who by the way has a soft corner for Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, too. The likes of Pilot, Scindia and Milind Deora resented being castaways who would have to wait perennially for their time to come as the old guard maintained status quo. And invested in politics as a career, they are now leaving the grand old party, one that has left thinking seniors like Kapil Sibal and Shashi Tharoor wondering if the party stables would be empty after “the horses had bolted.”
Sachin Pilot has been deeply invested in Rajasthan, getting the verdict for the Assembly polls in 2018, when even Gehlot wasn’t good enough to manage the scoreline, and ensuring favourable returns in the panchayat polls that came soon after the mammoth May 2019 verdict for Modi. Yet Gehlot got the chief ministership, partly because of his history with Indira Gandhi who always trusted his organisational skills and partly because of his hold on a sizeable number of party cadres with whom he could break away. This ability to rustle numbers is also the reason why he was able to parade about 100-odd MLAs in a show of strength compared to Pilot’s claim of having about 30 MLAs, enough to dislodge the Government. Pilot’s strength, the high command thought, has been incremental and he was, therefore, convinced to be his deputy. But Gehlot has never been one to share power or yield some degree of autonomy, hemming in Pilot’s administrative powers by appointing crony bureaucrats in his ministries. Still Pilot held on, while disenchanting his own supporters who had bargained for some stake in the new dispensation. Matters came to a head when despite the Congress win in the Rajya Sabha elections, Gehlot accused him of toppling the Government and sent police summons to him for conspiracy. Pilot is a reluctant leaver and the Congress cannot afford to lose him so soon after Scindia flocked to the BJP. In fact, given the testimonials, the public perception and emotion are with Pilot even though he may not parade numbers. What will Pilot do? Joining the BJP won’t help much, considering he won’t be made Chief Minister either with aspirant Vasundhara Raje not expected to lie low. He could float a regional outfit but would still have to make a hard choice of supporting the BJP, which is keeping a hawk’s eye on proceedings. Negotiating within the Congress is unlikely to give him much of legroom. But yes, by quitting, he could give the Congress a body blow and become a trigger for younger leaders like him to make copycat moves. The Congress needs him more. Censuring him won’t stop the drift in the party.
(Courtesy: The Pioneer)
It is time for the people to question the Government, especially KP Oli, for turning a blind eye to Chinese high-handedness
The recent border issues raised by Nepal show structural deficiencies in building trust and willingness to keep relations with India healthy. The self-centred politicisation of centuries-old peaceful ties exposes the darker side of Nepalese Prime Minister KP Oli. He has not only derailed the prospects of peace and cooperation between Nepal and India, but his hollow projection of nationalism, solely based on anti-India manoeuvring, exhibits his short-sightedness to serve vested interests in the political and diplomatic space of Nepal. This includes his growing closeness and frequent interactions with China.
On the other hand, Nepal’s ruling Communist Party (NCP) has intensified its demand for Oli’s resignation for failing to contain COVID-19, derailing the economy, endangering the right to freedom, including that of the Press, and accusing India of conspiring against him politically. Amid all this, Oli can be seen misusing his power to influence the office of the President in unilaterally issuing ordinances to ease the process of splitting a party to protect his position as Prime Minister in case his party splits.
Although the Standing Committee of the NCP has lashed out at Oli for misusing his power and accusing India, Oli has turned a deaf ear to such calls and is openly entertaining Chinese assertiveness in the domestic and foreign affairs of Nepal. If reports in the Nepalese media are to be believed, it is Oli’s arrogance that has driven his pro-China campaign, at the cost of destroying friendly ties with India. While Oli’s new-found love for China is a challenge to India, a pro-active and meddling Beijing is a bigger concern for Nepal itself.
Even though China has penetrated the Nepalese political space, Oli is not paying heed since recent moves by the Chinese Ambassador in Nepal are aimed to protect his interests. Ambassador Hou Yanqi has been meeting with the members of the NCP to keep Oli in office. Her direct meetings with the Prime Minister are cherry on the cake for China. However, Yanqi attracted criticism after she held a one-on-one meeting with the President of Nepal on June 5, a day before the Standing Committee of the NCP was to decide on Oli’s fate. While the agenda of the meeting was not revealed, it is clear that China wishes Oli to continue as the Prime Minister.
On his part, Oli is hell-bent on bringing a Chinese-style one-party rule in Nepal. Members of the Communist Party of China were invited to provide training to the Central Committee members of the NCP before its second convention was to begin in Kathmandu on February 15. At the convention, NCP allegedly passed a resolution to amend the Constitution to make Nepal a “People’s Democracy” from the existing “People’s multi-party Democracy.” In case, the NCP pushes to remove the word “multi-party” from the Constitution, it will further lead the country towards a one-party rule.
This pro-China inclination may be considered an independent sovereign act of a country. But allowing Chinese intervention in the political affairs of Nepal is dangerous. While the high-handedness of Yanqi is not a hidden fact, pumping of Chinese funds through the Madan Bhandari Foundation, named after a late Communist leader seen as a source of Oli’s political aspirations, needs to be seen.
It was Yanqi who had convinced Oli and his administration to sign a extradition treaty during Xi Jinping’s visit to Nepal last October. While the treaty was not signed due to internal opposition, Oli gifted a Treaty on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters on the lines of the extradition treaty to China. The treaty has not only jeopardised the fate of 13,000 Tibetans living in Nepal but Kathmandu has also risked violating the pact with the UNHCR to protect the rights of Tibetan refugees.
The frequent meetings between the Chinese officials and officers of the Nepal Army give a clear understanding of the Chinese mindset in Nepal for two reasons. One, the army has always been looked upon as the most stable institution in Nepal. No matter the political party in power, a stable relationship with the army will prove beneficiary for Chinese interests in Nepal. Two, in the last three years, the security cooperation between China and Nepal has moved from minimal to an advanced level. To promote ties in the security sector, China and Nepal have continued to strengthen cooperation through the exchange of visits of security personnel, joint exercises and training, disaster prevention and reduction, personnel training and supply of arms and ammunition to the Nepalese army.
Also, the Chinese business community in Nepal has been defying domestic laws of the host country, but local political support has kept it safe. Thamel, a tourist spot in the heart of Kathmandu known for lavish restaurants and hostels, has a complete area allegedly owned by the Chinese. They are known to lease properties from Nepali owners on a maximum bid and run these hotels and restaurants with all-Chinese staff, who allegedly visit Nepal on tourist visas. Similar cases of fraud have come into the public sphere where Chinese-run hotels in Nepal accept payments through the China-owned WeChat app. Meaning, the Chinese tourists do not make cash transactions in local currency or on local online payment platforms. Therefore, revenue contribution by the Chinese tourists has negative implications for the Nepalese tourism industry.
In December 2019, 122 Chinese nationals were arrested by the Nepal Police for their involvement in cybercrimes and bank frauds. Later, these criminals were deported at the request of the Chinese Government and to provide an explanation to the media, the police claimed that it had failed to frame charges against them. China is known to have little respect for the laws of other countries but local support from the Prime Minister’s office is indeed a sell-off. It is believed that Oli had personally attempted to avoid embarrassing China by deporting these criminals. In February, the editor of a leading English daily in Nepal was also forced to resign after the newspaper ran an op-ed on the Coronavirus and questioned the Chinese Government’s intentions in hiding its spread.
For years, leaders in Nepal have propagated a neutral position between India and China, knowing the importance of both the neighbours in trade, transit and security. They have also understood the geographical compulsions of a landlocked Nepal, but with his hollow acts of ultra-nationalism, Oli has merely served his personal aspirations.
In reality, a Chinese-style political system in Nepal will be a curse on Nepal’s long fight for democracy, where thousands had sacrificed their lives. Nepal has examples of Chinese debt-traps in Sri Lanka and Africa and brain-washing in Pakistan. Therefore, it is time for the people to question the Government, especially Oli, for turning a blind eye to Chinese high-handedness.
(Writer: Rishi Gupta; Courtesy: The Pioneer)
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