Germany is set for pivotal state elections this Sunday in two eastern regions, Thuringia and Saxony, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to make historic gains. Polls indicate the AfD is leading with 30% in Thuringia and running neck-and-neck with the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) in Saxony, polling at 30-32%. A victory for the AfD would mark the first time since World War Two that a far-right party has won the most seats in a German state parliament.

Despite its strong showing, the AfD is unlikely to form a state government, as it falls short of a majority, and other parties have ruled out any collaboration. However, the party’s rise, along with the emergence of the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), complicates coalition-building efforts. The BSW, founded by former communist Sahra Wagenknecht, has seen a meteoric rise since its creation in January, appealing to voters with its anti-migration, eurosceptic, and Russia-friendly platform.

The success of the AfD and BSW reflects deep-seated discontent in Germany’s former communist East, where concerns about the cost of living, the Ukraine war, and immigration are particularly acute. A recent stabbing spree linked to Islamic State militants has intensified criticism of the government’s handling of immigration, providing further momentum to right-wing and populist parties.

Bjoern Hoecke, the AfD’s leader in Thuringia, has capitalized on these fears, delivering inflammatory rhetoric at campaign events. Hoecke, a former history teacher, has courted controversy with statements like calling Berlin’s Holocaust memorial a “monument of shame.” Despite his polarizing views, Hoecke has garnered significant support, particularly among voters disillusioned with mainstream parties.

The elections are a critical test for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s federal coalition, which is expected to suffer losses. The Greens and Free Democrats, two of Scholz’s coalition partners, are struggling to reach the 5% threshold necessary to enter parliament. Discontent with the ideologically diverse and infighting-prone coalition is widespread, and a poor performance in the East could exacerbate tensions in Berlin.

Political analysts warn that the state elections could have far-reaching implications for Germany’s political landscape. “The state elections have the potential to trigger an earthquake in Berlin,” Wagenknecht told supporters at a rally in Erfurt, Thuringia’s capital. Her party, which defines itself as socially conservative and economically left-wing, could win up to 12-20% of the vote, positioning itself as a kingmaker in both states.

As the AfD and BSW are expected to capture 40-50% of the vote in these eastern states, the elections underscore the enduring divide between East and West Germany, more than 30 years after reunification. Despite economic advancements, skepticism of Germany’s democratic institutions and affinity for Russia remain prevalent in the East, reflecting a complex and evolving political landscape.

Germany is set for pivotal state elections this Sunday in two eastern regions, Thuringia and Saxony, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to make historic gains. Polls indicate the AfD is leading with 30% in Thuringia and running neck-and-neck with the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) in Saxony, polling at 30-32%. A victory for the AfD would mark the first time since World War Two that a far-right party has won the most seats in a German state parliament.

Despite its strong showing, the AfD is unlikely to form a state government, as it falls short of a majority, and other parties have ruled out any collaboration. However, the party’s rise, along with the emergence of the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), complicates coalition-building efforts. The BSW, founded by former communist Sahra Wagenknecht, has seen a meteoric rise since its creation in January, appealing to voters with its anti-migration, eurosceptic, and Russia-friendly platform.

The success of the AfD and BSW reflects deep-seated discontent in Germany’s former communist East, where concerns about the cost of living, the Ukraine war, and immigration are particularly acute. A recent stabbing spree linked to Islamic State militants has intensified criticism of the government’s handling of immigration, providing further momentum to right-wing and populist parties.

Bjoern Hoecke, the AfD’s leader in Thuringia, has capitalized on these fears, delivering inflammatory rhetoric at campaign events. Hoecke, a former history teacher, has courted controversy with statements like calling Berlin’s Holocaust memorial a “monument of shame.” Despite his polarizing views, Hoecke has garnered significant support, particularly among voters disillusioned with mainstream parties.

The elections are a critical test for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s federal coalition, which is expected to suffer losses. The Greens and Free Democrats, two of Scholz’s coalition partners, are struggling to reach the 5% threshold necessary to enter parliament. Discontent with the ideologically diverse and infighting-prone coalition is widespread, and a poor performance in the East could exacerbate tensions in Berlin.

Political analysts warn that the state elections could have far-reaching implications for Germany’s political landscape. “The state elections have the potential to trigger an earthquake in Berlin,” Wagenknecht told supporters at a rally in Erfurt, Thuringia’s capital. Her party, which defines itself as socially conservative and economically left-wing, could win up to 12-20% of the vote, positioning itself as a kingmaker in both states.

As the AfD and BSW are expected to capture 40-50% of the vote in these eastern states, the elections underscore the enduring divide between East and West Germany, more than 30 years after reunification. Despite economic advancements, skepticism of Germany’s democratic institutions and affinity for Russia remain prevalent in the East, reflecting a complex and evolving political landscape.