The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre may cross the magic threshold of 272 mark in the 543 seat Lok Sabha, if elections were held today, says our opinion poll. According to the survey, conducted between 1 March and 31 March 2019, the NDA may win 290 seats, the Congress-led UPA – 111, Others – 144. The BJP, according to the poll, will come down from the 282 seats it had won in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections but will increase its vote share from 31.34 percent to 36 per cent. The Congress will increase its seats tally from the 44 it won in 2014 to 85-90 seats; its vote share will go from 19.52% to near 27% in the national elections. The others are predicted to get 125 seats with a 31% vote share in the Lok Sabha.
Second most important factor is the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the run up of General Elections. He is scoring over 51% approval rating in their various surveys conducted by several domestic and overseas agencies. Modi is perceived as the strong leader capable of defending the country from external and internal aggression. Modi’s pro poor schemes are likely to yield results in the rural area where BJP is traditionally weak.
Third, BJP is in fierce fight in the areas where it has no stakes prior to 2014. Today it is a force in West Bengal, North East, Odisha and it is desperately trying to open account in Kerala, Telengana. It is largely the hard work of Amit Shah to create a fighting base in the states where BJP is likely to gain substantial seats.
The last five years, RSS has expanded its cadre across India with a friendly government in centre. The disciplined RSS cadre is likely to play a pivotal role in securing an edge for BJP in the general elections.
2019 Lok Sabha Elections Times Opinion Express Opinion Poll: State-wise results
Uttar Pradesh (80/80): The Opinion Express Opinion Poll survey predicts three corner fight between BJP, SP-BSP ALLAINCE, CONGRESS may act as a boon to the NDA though it is in for a minor jolt in the country’s most crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. The NDA tally is likely to slump to 40 out of the total 80 seats, compared to 73 seats it won in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP’s vote share is likely to be down by 2.8 per cent. The SP-BSP alliance is expected to reap benefits for the opposition and the alliance could bag as many as 35-38 seats, compared to the just five seats it won in 2014. The Congress will stay flat with expected wins in twothree seats. The poll will witness heavy weights PM Modi, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Rajnath Singh, Meneka and varun Gandhi, Mulayam Singh yadav, Akhilesh yadav in fray.
Maharashtra (48/48): In 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, the NDA is likely to win 35-38 seats, five less than it did in 2014. The Congress+NCP, however, are likely to win 8 seats, 4 more than it did in 2014. As per the survey, the UPA is likely to win 8-10 seats in 2019. The performance of the Fernavis government will be put to litmus test in the Lok Sabha elections.
West Bengal (42/42): Mamata Banerjee-led All India Trinamool Congress is likely to win the maximum number of seats (30) in West Bengal. The BJP, however, is likely to make a jump from 2 seats in 2014 to 9-10 in 2019. The Congress, however, is expected to win just 1-2 seats, while Left Front is likely to win one seat. The TMC had won 34 of the total 42 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections. The Congress had bagged four, the BJP 2 and the Left Front two. WB elections are likely to witness huge turmoil and violence due to the extreme divide of left and right cadre.
Bihar (40/40): The number of seats won by the BJP+JD (U) in Bihar in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections is likely to go down from 32 to 28. The Congress+RJD, however, are likely to increase its tally from 8 in 2014 to 12 in 2019. Modi Nitish Kumar can attract voters better than Lalu Congress alliance simply because Lalu is in jail and Congress party has no cadre to support RJD base to clinch the elections.
Tamil Nadu (39/39): As far as seat share projections are concerned, Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is expected to make huge gains and win 30 out of 39 seats. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam with NDA alliance is likely to win nine seats. In the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, the Congress and its allies had failed to win even a single seat, while the AIADMK won 37 of the total 39 seats. The BJP+ and others had won one each. Surely, Modi led government has mishandled the state government post Jayalathiha death and DMK is likely to cash in the sympathy votes due to Kalaignar death.
Madhya Pradesh (29/29): The Modi factor will ensure BJP to win the maximum number of seats in Madhya Pradesh in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. Congress seems to be failing in capitalising on gains in Assembly Elections in the state. As per the survey, the BJP is likely to win 21-23 seats and Congress 5-6. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP led the tally with 27 seats while the Congress had won just two out of the total 29 seats. MP state is likely to vote differently in the state and national elections.
Karnataka (28/28): The BJP and Congress-JD(s) are contesting pitched battle. BJP is likely to win 16 seats each in Karnataka in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. In 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP had won 17, while Congress had bagged 11 seats. Although BJP state leader yaddurappa is seen as a liability and Ananth Kumar death has further jolted the BJP, but it may ride on the Modi under current. However, Congress and JD(S) remains a divided house on the ground, it may lead to BJP advantage.
Gujarat (26/26): Despite anti-incumbency, the BJP is likely to win 2324 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP had made a clean sweep in 2014. From zero in 2014, Congress is likely to gain 2-3 seats this time. Gujrat is the home state of PM Narendra Modi so it is likely to vote heavily in favour of son of soil. Congress party is lacking in local leadership, the recent import Hardik Patel and rest may have a little impact on the broader general elections.
Rajasthan (25/25): Rajasthan losses could halt the BJP’s march to a majority as the NDA loses 8-10 seats and comes down to 15-17 in the state, as per Opinion Express Poll survey. The Congress is expected to grab the
remaining 8 seats. The BJP had done a clean sweep in Rajasthan in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, winning all 25 seats. The chemistry between the state leader vasundhra and national leadership is going to impact the outcome of the elections.
Andhra Pradesh (25/25): YSR Congress Party chief Jagan Mohan Reddy may end up as the kingmaker as the ySRCP is expected to bag 17-18 seats. While the Telugu Desam Party is expected to win only 6-7 seats, the BJP and Congress are not likely to open their accounts. In 2014, it was the ruling TDP that had bagged maximum seats (15). The YSR Congress Party had won eight while the BJP had bagged two out of the total 25.
Odisha (21/21): Odisha state will vote two ways in the Lok Sabha AND Vidhan Sabha. Modi is likely to be preferred as PM and Naveen Babu remains the favorite as CM for the state of Odisha. The BJP is likely to make a huge gain in Odisha in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. From just one seat in 2014, the BJP is expected to bag 13 seats this time. The tally of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) is likely to take a dip from 20 seats in 2014 to 8 seats in 2019. Notably, 19 per cent vote share gain in Odisha helps BJP offset losses elsewhere.
Kerala (20/20): The BJP is likely to open its account. While Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is expected to bag 16 seats, the Left Democratic Front is expected to win three. The UDF had won 12 seats in 2014 General Elections while the LDF had bagged 8 seats.
Telangana (17/17): The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is likely to grab 10 seats, Congress – 5, BJP+ – 1, Others – 1. In 2014, the TRS was the leading party with 12 seats while the Congress had won two. The BJP-led alliance could bag only one seat. Others had got two seats.
Assam (14/14): It seems the Citizenship Bill is consolidating votes for the BJP. The survey reveals that the BJP is likely to win eight seats, one more than it won in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections. Congress is likely to retain three seats, All India United Democratic Front – 2, Others -1.
Jharkhand (14/14): In 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, the Congress+JMM are likely to win 8-9 seats and BJP 5-6. The BJP had won the maximum 12 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Jharkhand. The Congress had won the remaining two.
Punjab (13/13): Setback in store for the NDA? As per the survey, the NDA is likely to retain two of the six seats it won in 2014. The Congress could gain big by bagging 10-11 seats; AAP party is likely to suffer heavy losses in the Lok Sabha elections.
Chhattisgarh (11/11): The UPA is likely to win six seats in Chhattisgarh in 2019 as compared to just one in 2014. The BJP’s seats are expected to be down from 10 in 2014 to mere 5 in 2019.
North East (11/11): The BJP retains supremacy in the North East with 9 seats while the UPA only manages 1 seat. The big role played by the Congress turncoat Hementa Sarma Biswas has completely shifted the paradigm in favour of BJP and Congress off lately is struggling to find the grip on its previous strong hold.
Haryana (10/10): BJP+- 6, Congress – 4, says Opinion Express Opinion Poll 2019 Lok Sabha Elections survey. In 2014, the NDA had won seven seats while the Congress had won one seat. A faction of INLD is likely to join hand with BJP in the elections. The last minute alliance between the BJP and INLD will push the tally of NDA to its earlier mark.
Delhi (7/7): Congress party and Aam Aadmi Party are expected to open its account this time by winning one seat each. The BJP is likely to retain remaining five seats.
Jammu and Kashmir (6/6): The BJP is likely to win two seats, Congress National Conference alliance will win 4 seats.
Uttarakhand (5/5): Upper caste votes seem to be still with the BJP in Uttarakhand as the NDA is likely to retain
all the five seats in the state in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections.
Himachal Pradesh (4/4): The BJP is expected to win 3 and Congress 1 seat in Himachal Pradesh in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections.
Goa (2/2): The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party riding on the Manohar Parrikar sympathy wave may win two seats in Goa, as per the Opinion Express Opinion Poll. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won both the seats.
Puducherry (1/1): The BJP+ is likely to lose the lone seat it won in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections in Puducherry. The UPA is expected to grab the seat from the BJP+. Andaman and Nicobar Islands (1/1): The BJP is likely to retain its seat.
Daman and Diu (1/1): The Union Territory of Daman and Diu has one parliamentary seat and the Bharatiya Janata Party is projected to retain that in this year’s Lok Sabha elections.
Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1/1): The BJP is expected to retain the seat it had won in the Union Territory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, this year as well.
Chandigarh (1/1): The Congress is expected to snatch the lone seat from the BJP, as per the survey.
Lakshwadeep (1/1): The survey gives the lone seat to the NCP.
In 2014, the BJP-led NDA won 336 of the total 543 seats in Lok Sabha, with the BJP alone winning 282 seats. This elections are likely to reduce the BJP led NDA tally by 40-45 seats. Thus Narendra Modi is likely to just touch the power cord in May 2019.
From Opinion Express News Desk.