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Congress’ Hopes of a Much-Improved Performance are Contingent on Alliances in States

Congress’ Hopes of a Much-Improved Performance are Contingent on Alliances in States

Although Rahul Gandhi was permitted as a candidate for the position of Prime Minister at Congress Working Committee Meet but questions remain.

When Congress chief Rahul Gandhi first said publicly, in reply to a journalist’s question, during the campaign for the Karnataka Assembly election that he would be the Prime Minister if the Congress emerged as the largest party post-2019, this newspaper welcomed the clarity of political ambition unambiguously articulated. Events since, however, despite his spirited Lok Sabha speech during the debate on the no-confidence motion which Gandhi himself proceeded to undermine by the very theatrics he accuses the Prime Minister of indulging in, have not provided clarity on either the tactics or the strategy he will deploy to bring that ambition to fruition. The Congress Working Committee reconstituted by Gandhi met under his leadership on Sunday and gave its seal of approval to the Congress’ pitch for the post of Prime Minister for its leader as part of an Opposition alliance provided, of course, the said alliance manages to block Narendra Modi, who is the clear frontrunner, from returning to power. The CWC also authorised Gandhi to firm up alliances for the forthcoming Lok Sabha poll. Tactics, first. While much is being made of the fact that at the Press briefing following the CWC meet party leaders spoke of winning “around 200 seats” as a kind of benchmark for the Congress to put the issue of leadership of a non-BJP Government at the Centre beyond doubt, there is still a lot ambiguity on this score. For example, it was not stated that the Congress would not stake claim to the leadership position if it got 150 seats, or even 120-odd? It would behove us to remember that even at the last-mentioned seat tally the Congress’ strength in the Lok Sabha would still be roughly four times the seats of the next largest Opposition party. Put another way, unless it gets below 100 Lok Sabha the Congress is likely to be pitching hard for a leadership role and the major regional parties which expect to do well in their respective States are unlikely to settle for working under Gandhi. Heck, Chandrababu Naidu just recently took on Modi who he considers his “junior” because the latter became Chief Minister six years after Naidu took over as CM in 1995, forget Rahul Gandhi!

On strategy, it is clear that the Congress’ hopes of a much-improved performance are contingent on alliances in States where it is either weak or virtually non-existent so that anti-incumbency votes, though there is as yet no way of ascertaining their degree, do not get ‘wasted’. By this logic, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are the only two States where the Congress chief may not have major problems in stitching up alliances given the primacy of the DMK and Trinamool Congress as the main anti-BJP political forces there respectively. In every other State, Gandhi is going to have a tough task at hand. In fact, political analysts point out that even the party’s minimum requirement of 120-odd Lok Sabha seats to be taken seriously as the putative leader of an Opposition alliance would require alliances with smaller parties in States where it is in a direct contest with the BJP such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Punjab as also Karnataka/Maharashtra where alliances by both sides have already more or less been finalised though seat-shares are yet to be worked out.

Writer: Pioneer

Courtesy: The Pioneer

Congress’ Hopes of a Much-Improved Performance are Contingent on Alliances in States

Congress’ Hopes of a Much-Improved Performance are Contingent on Alliances in States

Although Rahul Gandhi was permitted as a candidate for the position of Prime Minister at Congress Working Committee Meet but questions remain.

When Congress chief Rahul Gandhi first said publicly, in reply to a journalist’s question, during the campaign for the Karnataka Assembly election that he would be the Prime Minister if the Congress emerged as the largest party post-2019, this newspaper welcomed the clarity of political ambition unambiguously articulated. Events since, however, despite his spirited Lok Sabha speech during the debate on the no-confidence motion which Gandhi himself proceeded to undermine by the very theatrics he accuses the Prime Minister of indulging in, have not provided clarity on either the tactics or the strategy he will deploy to bring that ambition to fruition. The Congress Working Committee reconstituted by Gandhi met under his leadership on Sunday and gave its seal of approval to the Congress’ pitch for the post of Prime Minister for its leader as part of an Opposition alliance provided, of course, the said alliance manages to block Narendra Modi, who is the clear frontrunner, from returning to power. The CWC also authorised Gandhi to firm up alliances for the forthcoming Lok Sabha poll. Tactics, first. While much is being made of the fact that at the Press briefing following the CWC meet party leaders spoke of winning “around 200 seats” as a kind of benchmark for the Congress to put the issue of leadership of a non-BJP Government at the Centre beyond doubt, there is still a lot ambiguity on this score. For example, it was not stated that the Congress would not stake claim to the leadership position if it got 150 seats, or even 120-odd? It would behove us to remember that even at the last-mentioned seat tally the Congress’ strength in the Lok Sabha would still be roughly four times the seats of the next largest Opposition party. Put another way, unless it gets below 100 Lok Sabha the Congress is likely to be pitching hard for a leadership role and the major regional parties which expect to do well in their respective States are unlikely to settle for working under Gandhi. Heck, Chandrababu Naidu just recently took on Modi who he considers his “junior” because the latter became Chief Minister six years after Naidu took over as CM in 1995, forget Rahul Gandhi!

On strategy, it is clear that the Congress’ hopes of a much-improved performance are contingent on alliances in States where it is either weak or virtually non-existent so that anti-incumbency votes, though there is as yet no way of ascertaining their degree, do not get ‘wasted’. By this logic, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are the only two States where the Congress chief may not have major problems in stitching up alliances given the primacy of the DMK and Trinamool Congress as the main anti-BJP political forces there respectively. In every other State, Gandhi is going to have a tough task at hand. In fact, political analysts point out that even the party’s minimum requirement of 120-odd Lok Sabha seats to be taken seriously as the putative leader of an Opposition alliance would require alliances with smaller parties in States where it is in a direct contest with the BJP such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Punjab as also Karnataka/Maharashtra where alliances by both sides have already more or less been finalised though seat-shares are yet to be worked out.

Writer: Pioneer

Courtesy: The Pioneer

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