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Agnipriksha of Agnipath: A Litmus test for Modi government and Agniveers

Agnipriksha of Agnipath: A Litmus test for Modi government and Agniveers

The recently announced recruitment scheme by Modi government - Agnipath-the path of fire – as planned employment of 45000 to 50000 persons in the age-group 17.5-21 years in the Indian defence sector per annum actually guarantees a secure job for 25% of candidates for 15 years and the remaining 75?ndidates will receive jobs for 4 years only. The move is projected to be inspired by the US Défense model but has invited a strong protest by the aspiring youth, mainly in Northern states, and opposition political parties. According to the scheme, 75% of army men will be compelled to leave with Rs. 1.2 million in hand after completing four years of service. This is in continuation to the informalization of work, with no social security after 4 years. It is interesting to see that even the most glorified and sacred armed force known for patriotism, is not left untouched from contractualization, the process which has even created insecurity in the life of retired army personnel. The scheme is opposed by aspiring youth across the country and expressed their concern by protesting and damaging public property in disgust.

After the protest, however, the central government or defence ministry is compelled to provide a relaxation of 2 more years in the age bar for the jobs from 21 years to 23 years due to no recruitment in the last two years due to Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, different reservation/quotas are announced by the central and state governments for the retired Agniveers, to pacify the protest. The Public Interest Litigation (PIL) is filed in the Supreme Court, against the implementation of Agnipath scheme by sharing that it will cause ‘serious injury’ to citizens and is followed by other PIL against the violence in the protest and is asked for taking strong actions against the protestors in the affected states- Bihar, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Haryana, Rajasthan and Telangana.

The three-armed forces, Army, Navy and Airforce had to call a press conference and denied withdrawal from the scheme instead reducing the average age from 32 years to 26 years by citing the case of the US, where 27 years of average age is there for the defence personnel with the expansion of technology upgradation and advancement in having a relatively younger army. It was announced that the recruitment would start from 24th June, 2022 and the protesters would be debarred from the recruitment.

 

Informalizing Armed forces

The scheme is aimed at promoting informalization and reducing public funding especially in the revenue expenditure, like pensions and other social security allowances in the policy framework of neo-liberal economics. The scheme is thus a litmus test amidst ongoing recessionary and stagflation pressures for Indian youth and opposition political parties who are fighting against the diversionary tactics of the ruling government. These strategic developments can be understood in the light of earlier promises, and lower growth and number of employment generation in Defense followed by the condition of constitutional assured reservation in the public sector undertaking (PSU). The scheme is projected as a political move as there was no progress of providing 2 crores per annum jobs as promised by Modi in 2014, rather there has been an increasing unemployment rate in 2018 as compared to the last 45 years.

Launching Agnipath Scheme amidst Rising Unemployment

Despite secondary evidence of the deteriorating condition of employment ever since the initiation of economic reforms in 1990s, the vulnerability of the poor has intensified under Modi regime and worsened in the Covid-19 pandemic times.  According to CMIE data, the unemployment rate and labour participation rate during the recent quarter January-April, 2022 especially in the five states (Bihar, UP, Haryana, Rajasthan and Telangana) have been highest unemployment rates and youth unemployment rates and is thus reflected in the extent of the protest against the Agnipath scheme.

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) publishes four important parameters of the labour conditions are : (i) Unemployment Rate- This rate estimates the unemployed  persons who are willing to work and are actively looking for a job expressed as a per cent of the labour force, (ii) labour force participation rate- this rate is the ratio of the labour force to the population greater than 15 years of age and (iii) Greater Unemployment Rate (GUER)- the rate is the sum of the unemployed who are willing to work and are actively looking for a job and the unemployed who are willing to work and are not actively looking for a job, expressed as a per cent of the greater labour force and (iv) Greater Labour Force (GLF) consists of persons who are of 15 years of age or more and are either of the following three categories: (i) employed (ii) unemployed and are willing to work and are actively looking for a job and (iii) unemployed and are willing to work and are not actively looking for a job. The unemployment rates (UR) of these PIL sought direction states are: Haryana (25.67), Bihar (15.28), Rajasthan (26.98), and Telangana (8.58), Uttar Pradesh (3.33), reflecting higher unemployment rates in these states except UP.  The reality of the unemployment rate in UP can be examined by the labour force participation rate (LPR), which has been the lowest at all-India level, which is only 33.40% reflecting that people have withdrawn from seeking of jobs due to the highest unemployment and underemployment in UP. So, the lower unemployment rate captures a shallower aspect of the reality, as a willingness to work in terms of the lowest labour force participation rate in the state has drastically declined The labour force participation rates (LPR) in these respective states: Haryana (41.04), Bihar (35.21), Rajasthan (44.58), Telangana (52.43), Uttar Pradesh (33.40). The labour force participation rates (LPR) in urban areas are: Haryana (40.36), Bihar (35.85), Rajasthan (44.76), Telangana (40.17), Uttar Pradesh (33.61), as shown in Figure 1.

The states with greater effective unemployment rates (GUER) are: Haryana (27.56), Bihar (17.56), Rajasthan (33.38), Telangana (8.18), Uttar Pradesh (9.29). The GUER include the number of seeking for employment into the unemployed persons number, which captures willing to work but not getting employment. At the all-India levels, these three respective rates are: UR (7.43), LPR (39.71) and GUER (10.79).

 

Source: Figure constructed by the authors using data of CMIE (2022).

 

Youth Unemployment: Reserved Army

The youth unemployment rates in UP in the age groups of 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 years are 12.88%, 17.46% and 8.08% respectively (Figure 2). In these respective age groups, the greater unemployment rates are 72.70%, 31.93% and 11.31%, reflecting the highest greater unemployment rate in 15-19 years but suddenly declines in next two age groups due to hopelessness in the poor and vulnerable conditions of unemployment (Figure 3) 

 

Source: Figure constructed by the authors using data of CMIE (2022).

 

In Bihar, the URs in these respective age groups are: 77.69%, 70.39% and 31.14% and the corresponding GUERs are 83.32%, 73.97% and 31.66% reflecting poor conditions of unemployment. The rate of decline in the URs and GUERs across the age groups are higher in UP than Bihar reflecting poorer conditions of unemployment in UP in terms of people are withdrawing from seeking jobs, which is hiding behind the lower average unemployment rate in UP than Bihar.

 

Source: Figure constructed by the authors using data of CMIE (2022).

 

In Rajasthan, the URs are 95.40%, 82.07% and 17.16% and GUER are 97.67%, 83.42% and 18.16% respectively. In Telangana, the respective URs are 76.52%, 18.15% and 6.43% and GUER are 76.63%, 18.15% and 6.48%. The respective URs in Haryana are 96.76%, 83.89% and 28.38% and the corresponding GUERs are 97.87%, 84.17% and 28.71%.   In Telangana, the URs in these age-groups are 76.52%, 18.15% and 6.43% and respective GUERs are 76.63%, 18.15% and 6.15%, not much difference between the URs and GUERs showing relatively better conditions of employment in Telangana. The gap between the URs and GUERs in Haryana, Bihar, Rajasthan and Telangana in comparison to UP reflects greater vulnerability of jobs in the state. Thus, the more vulnerability of UP unemployment and underemployment conditions can be understood from three perspectives: (i) Lowest LPR; (ii) highest decline in the GUER across the groups from 15-19 to 20-24 and to 25-29 in UP as compared to other four states, (iii) highest gaps between the URs and GUERs in UP as compared to the other four states.

Conclusion

The above discussion unfolds the reasons for calling Agnipath as Agnipriksha for the aspiring youth and the central government. The unrest among youth due to the already higher unemployment rate across India but more specifically in the five states is examined in the light of unemployment situation across the states. Since the employment situation is grimmer in the northern states - Bihar, UP, Haryana, and Rajasthan, the native youth has expressed their anguish by violently disrupting public property. However, the central government is trying to pacify the movement legally and via taking defence departmental measures. Further, the Indian government is making provisions for the reservation in state and centre police, railway, education and other departments/ministry.  Like the central open university- Indira Gandhi National Open University (IGNOU) too has announced to offer a 3 years’ degree for the four-year retired army men. The protestors however need to learn from the peaceful protest by the farmers in the past where they fought and won the political battle, otherwise movement built may be dissolved by the Indian state in the name of preserving law and order. The aspiring youth however is unaware of the deep-seated neoliberal agenda of informalizing every possible social sector resulting in destabilizing India’s future and is unable to understand the hidden agenda of reducing the fiscal accountability in Défense sector under the neo-liberal policy framework from the present 50% budget of pensions and other social security system of Rs. 2.5 lakh crores out of total Rs. 5.25 lakh crore in 2022-23 (GOI, 2022). It is foreseen that After witnessing the socio-political scenario of growing unrest, there is a fear of having greater unrest amidst growing unemployment.

Narender Thakur and Vaishali, University of Delhi

 

Agnipriksha of Agnipath: A Litmus test for Modi government and Agniveers

Agnipriksha of Agnipath: A Litmus test for Modi government and Agniveers

The recently announced recruitment scheme by Modi government - Agnipath-the path of fire – as planned employment of 45000 to 50000 persons in the age-group 17.5-21 years in the Indian defence sector per annum actually guarantees a secure job for 25% of candidates for 15 years and the remaining 75?ndidates will receive jobs for 4 years only. The move is projected to be inspired by the US Défense model but has invited a strong protest by the aspiring youth, mainly in Northern states, and opposition political parties. According to the scheme, 75% of army men will be compelled to leave with Rs. 1.2 million in hand after completing four years of service. This is in continuation to the informalization of work, with no social security after 4 years. It is interesting to see that even the most glorified and sacred armed force known for patriotism, is not left untouched from contractualization, the process which has even created insecurity in the life of retired army personnel. The scheme is opposed by aspiring youth across the country and expressed their concern by protesting and damaging public property in disgust.

After the protest, however, the central government or defence ministry is compelled to provide a relaxation of 2 more years in the age bar for the jobs from 21 years to 23 years due to no recruitment in the last two years due to Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, different reservation/quotas are announced by the central and state governments for the retired Agniveers, to pacify the protest. The Public Interest Litigation (PIL) is filed in the Supreme Court, against the implementation of Agnipath scheme by sharing that it will cause ‘serious injury’ to citizens and is followed by other PIL against the violence in the protest and is asked for taking strong actions against the protestors in the affected states- Bihar, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Haryana, Rajasthan and Telangana.

The three-armed forces, Army, Navy and Airforce had to call a press conference and denied withdrawal from the scheme instead reducing the average age from 32 years to 26 years by citing the case of the US, where 27 years of average age is there for the defence personnel with the expansion of technology upgradation and advancement in having a relatively younger army. It was announced that the recruitment would start from 24th June, 2022 and the protesters would be debarred from the recruitment.

 

Informalizing Armed forces

The scheme is aimed at promoting informalization and reducing public funding especially in the revenue expenditure, like pensions and other social security allowances in the policy framework of neo-liberal economics. The scheme is thus a litmus test amidst ongoing recessionary and stagflation pressures for Indian youth and opposition political parties who are fighting against the diversionary tactics of the ruling government. These strategic developments can be understood in the light of earlier promises, and lower growth and number of employment generation in Defense followed by the condition of constitutional assured reservation in the public sector undertaking (PSU). The scheme is projected as a political move as there was no progress of providing 2 crores per annum jobs as promised by Modi in 2014, rather there has been an increasing unemployment rate in 2018 as compared to the last 45 years.

Launching Agnipath Scheme amidst Rising Unemployment

Despite secondary evidence of the deteriorating condition of employment ever since the initiation of economic reforms in 1990s, the vulnerability of the poor has intensified under Modi regime and worsened in the Covid-19 pandemic times.  According to CMIE data, the unemployment rate and labour participation rate during the recent quarter January-April, 2022 especially in the five states (Bihar, UP, Haryana, Rajasthan and Telangana) have been highest unemployment rates and youth unemployment rates and is thus reflected in the extent of the protest against the Agnipath scheme.

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) publishes four important parameters of the labour conditions are : (i) Unemployment Rate- This rate estimates the unemployed  persons who are willing to work and are actively looking for a job expressed as a per cent of the labour force, (ii) labour force participation rate- this rate is the ratio of the labour force to the population greater than 15 years of age and (iii) Greater Unemployment Rate (GUER)- the rate is the sum of the unemployed who are willing to work and are actively looking for a job and the unemployed who are willing to work and are not actively looking for a job, expressed as a per cent of the greater labour force and (iv) Greater Labour Force (GLF) consists of persons who are of 15 years of age or more and are either of the following three categories: (i) employed (ii) unemployed and are willing to work and are actively looking for a job and (iii) unemployed and are willing to work and are not actively looking for a job. The unemployment rates (UR) of these PIL sought direction states are: Haryana (25.67), Bihar (15.28), Rajasthan (26.98), and Telangana (8.58), Uttar Pradesh (3.33), reflecting higher unemployment rates in these states except UP.  The reality of the unemployment rate in UP can be examined by the labour force participation rate (LPR), which has been the lowest at all-India level, which is only 33.40% reflecting that people have withdrawn from seeking of jobs due to the highest unemployment and underemployment in UP. So, the lower unemployment rate captures a shallower aspect of the reality, as a willingness to work in terms of the lowest labour force participation rate in the state has drastically declined The labour force participation rates (LPR) in these respective states: Haryana (41.04), Bihar (35.21), Rajasthan (44.58), Telangana (52.43), Uttar Pradesh (33.40). The labour force participation rates (LPR) in urban areas are: Haryana (40.36), Bihar (35.85), Rajasthan (44.76), Telangana (40.17), Uttar Pradesh (33.61), as shown in Figure 1.

The states with greater effective unemployment rates (GUER) are: Haryana (27.56), Bihar (17.56), Rajasthan (33.38), Telangana (8.18), Uttar Pradesh (9.29). The GUER include the number of seeking for employment into the unemployed persons number, which captures willing to work but not getting employment. At the all-India levels, these three respective rates are: UR (7.43), LPR (39.71) and GUER (10.79).

 

Source: Figure constructed by the authors using data of CMIE (2022).

 

Youth Unemployment: Reserved Army

The youth unemployment rates in UP in the age groups of 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 years are 12.88%, 17.46% and 8.08% respectively (Figure 2). In these respective age groups, the greater unemployment rates are 72.70%, 31.93% and 11.31%, reflecting the highest greater unemployment rate in 15-19 years but suddenly declines in next two age groups due to hopelessness in the poor and vulnerable conditions of unemployment (Figure 3) 

 

Source: Figure constructed by the authors using data of CMIE (2022).

 

In Bihar, the URs in these respective age groups are: 77.69%, 70.39% and 31.14% and the corresponding GUERs are 83.32%, 73.97% and 31.66% reflecting poor conditions of unemployment. The rate of decline in the URs and GUERs across the age groups are higher in UP than Bihar reflecting poorer conditions of unemployment in UP in terms of people are withdrawing from seeking jobs, which is hiding behind the lower average unemployment rate in UP than Bihar.

 

Source: Figure constructed by the authors using data of CMIE (2022).

 

In Rajasthan, the URs are 95.40%, 82.07% and 17.16% and GUER are 97.67%, 83.42% and 18.16% respectively. In Telangana, the respective URs are 76.52%, 18.15% and 6.43% and GUER are 76.63%, 18.15% and 6.48%. The respective URs in Haryana are 96.76%, 83.89% and 28.38% and the corresponding GUERs are 97.87%, 84.17% and 28.71%.   In Telangana, the URs in these age-groups are 76.52%, 18.15% and 6.43% and respective GUERs are 76.63%, 18.15% and 6.15%, not much difference between the URs and GUERs showing relatively better conditions of employment in Telangana. The gap between the URs and GUERs in Haryana, Bihar, Rajasthan and Telangana in comparison to UP reflects greater vulnerability of jobs in the state. Thus, the more vulnerability of UP unemployment and underemployment conditions can be understood from three perspectives: (i) Lowest LPR; (ii) highest decline in the GUER across the groups from 15-19 to 20-24 and to 25-29 in UP as compared to other four states, (iii) highest gaps between the URs and GUERs in UP as compared to the other four states.

Conclusion

The above discussion unfolds the reasons for calling Agnipath as Agnipriksha for the aspiring youth and the central government. The unrest among youth due to the already higher unemployment rate across India but more specifically in the five states is examined in the light of unemployment situation across the states. Since the employment situation is grimmer in the northern states - Bihar, UP, Haryana, and Rajasthan, the native youth has expressed their anguish by violently disrupting public property. However, the central government is trying to pacify the movement legally and via taking defence departmental measures. Further, the Indian government is making provisions for the reservation in state and centre police, railway, education and other departments/ministry.  Like the central open university- Indira Gandhi National Open University (IGNOU) too has announced to offer a 3 years’ degree for the four-year retired army men. The protestors however need to learn from the peaceful protest by the farmers in the past where they fought and won the political battle, otherwise movement built may be dissolved by the Indian state in the name of preserving law and order. The aspiring youth however is unaware of the deep-seated neoliberal agenda of informalizing every possible social sector resulting in destabilizing India’s future and is unable to understand the hidden agenda of reducing the fiscal accountability in Défense sector under the neo-liberal policy framework from the present 50% budget of pensions and other social security system of Rs. 2.5 lakh crores out of total Rs. 5.25 lakh crore in 2022-23 (GOI, 2022). It is foreseen that After witnessing the socio-political scenario of growing unrest, there is a fear of having greater unrest amidst growing unemployment.

Narender Thakur and Vaishali, University of Delhi

 

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